It’s been three weeks since Newspoll, which more often than not means another one should be along tonight. On that note, academic Murray Goot writes in Inside Story that there has been an “unreported upheaval” at YouGov’s Australian operation, which conducts the poll, in which “virtually all of those working in the public affairs and polling unit” have left – including Campbell White, who had been its head since it took over Newspoll in the wake of the 2019 election.
Until then, here’s the usual weekly assembly of federally relevant preselection news:
• Paul Karp of The Guardian reports factional conservatives consider their preselection challengers “likely” to defeat Melissa McIntosh in Lindsay and a “good chance” against Sussan Ley in Farrer. Alex Hawke “may require support from moderate Liberals” in Mitchell, and the move against Paul Fletcher in Bradfield is “considered unlikely to succeed”.
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports Brendan Blomeley’s bid for the state presidency of the Tasmanian Liberal Party marks part of an effort by Eric Abetz’s conservative faction to gain control of the state executive with a view to placing Blomeley on the Senate ticket at the expense of Richard Colbeck, securing a political comeback for Abetz in state parliament, and potentially undermining the preselection of arch-moderate Bass MP Bridget Archer.
• Eli Greenblat of The Australian reports the front-runners for Liberal preselection in Higgins are William Stoltz, senior manager at cybersecurity firm CyberCX and associate at the Australian National University’s National Security College, and Marcus Pearl, Port Phillip councillor and former mayor and chief executive of financial advisory and consulting services firm QMV. Katie Allen, who lost the seat to Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah last year, is reportedly keen to run again, but faces resistance because she crossed the floor to oppose the Morrison government’s amendments to religious discrimination laws.
• Party sources cited by The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column report that a disputes committee of the Liberal National Party in Queensland is likely to rule in favour of Senator Gerard Rennick’s challenge to his narrow preselection defeat last month, resulting in the process being repeated.
By-election latest:
• Quicker than I would have expected, the Western Australian Electoral Commission has conducted its full preference count from last Saturday’s Rockingham by-election. This showed Liberal candidate Peter Hudson finished third behind independent Hayley Edwards, the latter overcoming a primary vote deficit of 17.7% to 15.9% on preferences to lead by 22.1% to 21.0% at the final exclusion. Labor’s Magenta Marshall went on to win at the final count with 13,412 votes (61.4%) to Edwards’ 8443 (38.6%).
• While the preference distribution is still to be conducted, the last remaining postal votes have been added for the Fadden by-election, confirming a two-party swing to the LNP of 2.72%. On Thursday, Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review related a bullish take on the result presented to the Coalition party room by Senator James McGrath, which noted an elevated swing of 9% in “booths where there was a high rate of mortgages”. However, this was selectively based on the LNP primary vote in two booths – taking the newly developed Coomera and Pimpama area in total, the two-party swing was 5.5%. Further, the suburbs in question are dominated not so much by mortgage payers (32.8% of private dwellings as of the 2021 census, compared with 35.0% nationwide) as renters (55.5% compared with 30.6%). McGrath also claimed a 3.5% drop in independent Stewart Brooker’s vote was a measure of how much Labor benefited from top position on the ballot paper, which at least triples more judicious estimates of the donkey vote effect. Overlooked was the fact that Brooker was part of a field of thirteen this time and seven last time, and went from being the only independent to one of three.
On defence, and naval shipbuilding in particular, focus on the failure to build submarines has hidden the comparative failure to build much else either. There is a looming RAN warship availability crisis due around 2028, whereby almost every class of RAN major surface combatant is either due for replacement or due for refurbishment. We will have little more than patrol boats actually in the water.
– Collins gets their LOTE $6 billion upgrade (starting 2025). HMAS Collins turns 30 in 2026. This will take 2 years for each sub.
– Hobarts get their $6b upgrade (announced, timing unstated)
– Anzacs get their life extension and upgrade. Originally they were to be decommissioning by now, but now have to live onto ~2045? So just Phase1 of sea5014 is over $600m. HMAS Anzac turns 30 in 2026. Hunters were supposed to enter service from 2027, but are not now due till 2032+.
https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/sea/anzac-frigates-to-gain-capability-lose-weighs
-LHD also have some work required
– AOR also have some work required
Despite all the announcements, the navy shrank under the Liberals from 15 surface warships to 11 (ignoring patrol boats). The shipbuilding workforce has also shrunk because of lack of work. So now we have a very short time to both build new ships and maintain old ships, with not enough workers to do either.
You can see the adverse effect. By running late on new ships, the navy also has to do costly refurbishments on the old ships they were due to replace, but must now stay in the water longer. So the number of available hulls in the water spirals down.
It’s going to be Labor and L/NP voters that kill the Voice – and Albo says it’s all over if they do.
It’s Labor and L/NP voters who are supporting more new fossil fuel projects too – as well as a $313B tax cut for the rich.
Going well aren’t they.
Yep. The beauty of China’s naval build is that a lot of their warships are brand spanking new.
For now.
Use it or lose it?
A lot of people will share some accountability for silencing the Voice, including the Liberal trolls on this blog.
”
Socratessays:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 10:14 am
On defence, and naval shipbuilding in particular, focus on the failure to build submarines has hidden the comparative failure to build much else either. There is a looming RAN warship availability crisis due around 2028, whereby almost every class of RAN major surface combatant is either due for replacement or due for refurbishment. We will have little more than patrol boats actually in the water.
– Collins gets their LOTE $6 billion upgrade (starting 2025). HMAS Collins turns 30 in 2026. This will take 2 years for each sub.
– Hobarts get their $6b upgrade (announced, timing unstated)
– Anzacs get their life extension and upgrade. Originally they were to be decommissioning by now, but now have to live onto ~2045? So just Phase1 of sea5014 is over $600m. HMAS Anzac turns 30 in 2026. Hunters were supposed to enter service from 2027, but are not now due till 2032+.
https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/sea/anzac-frigates-to-gain-capability-lose-weighs
-LHD also have some work required
– AOR also have some work required
Despite all the announcements, the navy shrank under the Liberals from 15 surface warships to 11 (ignoring patrol boats). The shipbuilding workforce has also shrunk because of lack of work. So now we have a very short time to both build new ships and maintain old ships, with not enough workers to do either.
”
Socrates
No wonder “The shipbuilding workforce has also shrunk because of lack of work.” under ATM government. They think Australian Ship building industry cannot even make “Canoes”
Times Integrity complained about the LNP S3 tax cuts while the LNP were in power: zero.
Renters not happy. Can’t say I blame them.
From Dailykos
‘Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 10:21 am
Renters not happy. Can’t say I blame them.’
————————-
Crocodile tears by a true blue.
Interesting to see the Ley and McIntosh rumblings continue to gain traction. I was led to believe that it was the remnants of NSW ultra moderates that were hatching the Lindsay challenge. They put up a well known, popular, local small l progressive candidate who had been preparing for this their whole life. The right factions weren’t having a bar of it so employed a dirty tricks campaign throughout the Penrith branches to white ant his chances. McIntosh was their proxy and they got their way. To that end i’m suprised its the Right targeting her future tenure. She is hardly a moderate at all, keeps a very low profile, and has little to no personal following in the electorate. They don’t care who is on the ballot so long as they are the Liberal candidate. Less is more when it comes to Lindsay and she plays that quite well. To me it looks more like another skirmish in the ongoing NSW Liberal civil war. Watch for Dutton to intervene personally on her behalf if it comes to it.
In AFL
Collingwood lost to Hawthorne. Now they lost 2 in a row.
Leftie
They should bring back Jim Aitkens – he would sort it out
Regarding 2024 in the states I think the major party candidates will be dark horse candidates.
I can’t see Biden being able to soldier on for another term and outside of core Blue states in the north east, mid atlantics, the west coast and Illinois he isn’t very popular at all. I can’t see him being able to pull in more than barely 200 votes in the electoral college. I think states like GA, MI, WI, Min, Pa etc will swing back to the republicans if he runs again. Harris isn’t helping either.
If the dems were serious about 2024 they’d end the pariah status they put on Robert Kennedy Jr and allow him a mainstream and fair opportunity in the primaries. He speaks the truth about big pharma in the states which sadly makes it difficult for him with the party machine who reply on their massive donations.
If Kennedy runs and brings on to the ticket a respected southern democrat just as his uncle did decades ago I can see a 400 point electoral college wipe out of the republicans and the possibility of losing Texas.
Ven
“No wonder “The shipbuilding workforce has also shrunk because of lack of work.” under ATM government. They think Australian Ship building industry cannot even make “Canoes” “
Yes that became something of a self fulfilling prophecy under the Liberals, who repeatedly delayed construction starts on scheduled shipbuilding projects, and selected projects with long design phases, that delayed construction.
The Hunter class is now running further behind schedule than the French sub was when it was cancelled.
Even the Arafura Class OPV, of which the first two were built on time and budget at ASC, saw construction transferred from ASC to Perth for the fourth hull on.
Still, the money wasn’t wasted. We now know they were spending $21 billion per year on consultants.
Thanks BK
I interpret Trump’s “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU” threat as a reflection of concern as to his position and his natural narcissistic response to attack at all times. I think he may now be starting to realise he genuinely faces the possibility of prison time.
Apropos of this, I think the most telling response by an electorally significant (several percent) proportion of Republicans will be to stay home and not vote in 2024. The majority of duped Republicans won’t change but enough will withhold their votes thereby denying Trump victory.
leftieBrawler
If the dems were serious about 2024 they’d end the pariah status they put on Robert Kennedy Jr and allow him a mainstream and fair opportunity in the primaries.
Is this a joke?
If Kennedy runs and brings on to the ticket a respected southern democrat just as his uncle did decades ago I can see a 400 point electoral college wipe out of the republicans and the possibility of losing Texas.
Is this a joke as well? The South has changed a lot since the 1960s. Where are you getting this shite?
Times that Integrity has complained about the LNP no position on the voice: zero.
lol Oakshot, he just announced his retirement from the council I saw the other day in the local rag. I wouldn’t mind swapping bank balances with him though ! The Howard battlers still prosper and thrive in Lindsay. I feel they see voting Liberal as some sort of statement as very much still an anglo preserve, surrounded by a sea of multiculturalism. No doubt in recent years the seat has become more multicultural but not anything like the areas it borders. The Husar saga certainly didn’t help the Labor cause and has only added to this phenomena
”
Shogunsays:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 10:56 am
leftieBrawler
If the dems were serious about 2024 they’d end the pariah status they put on Robert Kennedy Jr and allow him a mainstream and fair opportunity in the primaries.
Is this a joke?
If Kennedy runs and brings on to the ticket a respected southern democrat just as his uncle did decades ago I can see a 400 point electoral college wipe out of the republicans and the possibility of losing Texas.
Is this a joke as well? The South has changed a lot since the 1960s. Where are you getting this shite?
”
I always had my doubts about Leftie
I still continue to have not that it matters. 🙂
The seat of Ringwood was held by the ALP with a margin of 7.5% (a 4.2% swing to the ALP) in the 2022 state election. I don’t see a Geoff Shaw type scenario owing to the huge ALP seat margin across the floor, so Fowles can’t and won’t be the trouble that the former member for Frankston was. However any by-election will probably see the seat change hands.
I wonder also how this impacts upon the following seats:
Glen Waverley 3.3%
Bayswater 4.2%
Ashwood 6.2%
Box Hill 7.2%
These seats also represent some of the first that the Liberals have to win as a path to victory in 2026.
Additionally the federal member for the seat that covers the bulk of the state seat of Ringwood is sitting on the smallest margin in the federal parliament…
Shogun, you should look beyond the headlines regarding Kennedy and take the time to listen to him on one of his recent podcasts such as the JRE or *gulp* Jordan Petersen.
Except for his desire to wind down support for Ukraine and some of his out there musings about vaccines their relationship to disease -which are things I don’t agree with – I find him a credible and refreshing change and style of candidate.
He appears to have a genuine conviction to reform many of the broken systems that define the country. He will also appeal to many republicans who would view him as more palatable to trump and cognitively superior to desantos
Leftie
My proudest moment in the party was derailing his 1995 campaign by mailing every elector with the details of how bad Nepean Hospital had become under Fahey.
As Jim was my neighbour at the time, this produced some difficulties (Also didn’t do my career much good)
@Rex:
“More a shame for the alleged victim of the alleged assault.
Should have been managed out if the ‘red flags have been there a long time’”
Oh absolutely – I was expressing my surprise that this wasn’t done after his past incidents and that he continued to be preselected.
@P1 – it is no secret that the Coalition’s naked hostility on renewable energy policy in government deterred investment and Labor hasn’t been in office long enough for there to be far advanced projects initiated after the change of government, especially since the Greens continued to ensure uncertainty on the emissions mechanism policy for months after the election. This will take a while yet.
I don’t say it every day, cuz it would get pretty repetitive, but I think it; Thanks so much for the Dawn Patrol BK. It really is one the best curated news feeds there is.
Confessions: “It makes you wonder why the Greens party refuses to actively campaign for Yes.”
Zat so?
Dorinda Cox on Sky News, a couple of weeks back:
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/voice-to-parliament/greens-senator-urges-aussies-to-ask-questions-and-read-up-about-the-voice/video/b364fcaa07a511a10e8c099301e6466d
Holdenhillbilly
“According to Mr Wood, delays holding up the construction of high-voltage power lines are at the heart of Australia’s slowing progress.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-06/australia-likely-to-fall-short-of-82pc-renewable-energy-target/102689392
—————————————-
My concern with this article is that it doesn’t (for reasons that elude me) articulate the real reason for the lack of transmission building. We know it’s not about government policy, funding or development interest.
This real issue is social licence, nimbyism, land owners not wanting transmission capacity on their land or more accurately, holding Australia to ransom seeking absolutely exorbitant compensation. QLD is offering landowners $300k per km of their land to house transmission poles and wires. We are fast reaching a point where the national interest must outweigh individual interests.
Compensation is entirely appropriate however it must be reasonable.
“If the dems were serious about 2024 they’d end the pariah status they put on Robert Kennedy Jr and allow him a mainstream and fair opportunity in the primaries. “
@leftieBrawler
Are you talking about Robert F Kennedy Jr who has very controversial anti-vax views? He was getting alot of time on then Tucker Carson’s show on Fox news for that very reason.
Allowing a Kennedy on the ticket also just plays in the narrative of political establishment and autocratic family entitlement. In terms of the presidency and the White House. Jeb Bush suffered tremendously in the Republican primary’s for that very reason in 2016. There would have been voters who had those thoughts also about Hilary Clinton being the wife of an ex-president as well as the Democratic nominee.
The Conversation, with Michelle Grattan, a couple of weeks back:
“In this podcast, we talk with two Indigenous senators, The Greens’ Dorinda Cox, and Liberal Kerrynne Liddle. *Cox is campaigning for the Voice*, while Liddle does not believe a Voice will achieve the practical outcomes those in favour are championing.
“Cox, from Western Australia, believes a Voice will deliver more and better practical results for First Nations peoples …”
https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-battle-of-the-voice-greens-senator-dorinda-cox-and-liberal-senator-kerrynne-liddle-210061
Fowle resigned from the Labor party.
Will he resign as an MP?
Premier referred this alleged assault to police. If the police charge Fowle. He can choose to remain an MP until case goes to court, and he is convicted or otherwise.
If convicted, he would need to resign as an MP.
Confessions: “It makes you wonder why the Greens party refuses to actively campaign for Yes.”
OS: “Zat so? Dorinda Cox ”
It should be easy for you to source Adam Bandt’s support of the voice then! He is the leader of the Greens political party, is he not? Help a brother out. You seem to have your finger on the pulse.
“Socratessays:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 9:28 am
Morning all. Thanks for the rundown BK. Slim pickings as you say.
Cat
“Enough Already,
I’ve read that Putin believes his only way to stave off the wolves is to stay involved in a war, of one kind or another. So it doesn’t surprise me that he would be fomenting another one. Even if it is with a NATO country. Maybe he believes he would then be part of a Coalition that would include China, which might give him a fighting chance?”
Putin may want to provoke something broader. But why would China get involved directly vs NATO? Many NATO countries like France and Germany have a lot of trade with China and have steered a middle course on issues like Taiwan. China getting involved against NATO would lock China out of European markets and vice versa and be a massive own goal.”
===================
C@t and Soc, I don’t exclude the possibility Putin has hopes along the lines C@t is suggesting; nor do I doubt China would reject such an involvement out of hand. I think Putin has been living in an epistemological bubble for so long that he is only capable of making sound political and military judgements which exclusively involve Russians as actors. Any call of his which involves estimating how non-Russians will react to his moves have proven completely off the mark this whole invasion.
Sweet jebus
Surely people know better these days?
https://www.9news.com.au/national/suspected-poisoning-victoria-gippsland-region-police-health-department/5a92bf84-a4e2-4b0e-93f9-8025faa83539
Victoria, but but but… they’re natural! How could they be bad for you!! Not like that agribusiness pre-packaged stuff.
Oakeshot I’m not overly familiar with the scene here back then. The irony now is that hospital is so big it has newly built, but mothballed wards because they don’t have the staff to operate them!.
I am quite aware the American South has changed significantly since 1960. I am also fully aware of the changing demographics in places like Texas will eventually turn them into competitive purples.
The post 1976 republican revolution of the south isn’t for the rest of time. A balanced ticket with a very popular , conservative leaning democrat makes smart electorate college sense. A running mate from the carolinas, GA or TN has the potential to flip some of the less hard core states north of the core 5 in the deep south.
Yes Perot was a factor but as late as the 90’s Clinton showed some of these states can flip if there is a local boy factor at play. It would also bring back into play states like Missouri, Indiana, Iowa, ohio etc that straddle the Appalachia cultural zones
Cox is being nobbled by the BlakGreens.
Bandt?
Silent.
Vic
No colliwobbles for the hawkers.
There is circumspect language around the fungal event tangentially suggesting that it could have been a nobbling event.
Who knows?
They are ruthless down at Hawthorn. Not even pregnancies get in the way of success.
Is there a date for the referendum?
Report from Kimba SA – Australian Radioactive Waste Agency office. On site for stalled low and medium radioactive waste storage.
Office open but no one around. 2 sourvenirs collected.
An ARWA Australian Government branded mug. Very dark blue inside so hard to see coffee, cocoa etc level in bottom of cup.
Plus an ARWA branded tube of sun screen protector. No radiation protection mask in sight.
Hope the proposed $30m bribe was being a bit better targeted.
Dio
Welcome back.
No.
No date yet for the referendum, though portents pointing to October 14th – due to 4 week Parliamentary break beforehand.
There is a window between Mid September and Mid December when it must be held, based on when the enabling legislation passed
This Guardian piece offers some context for the recent Ukrainian USV attacks on Russian vessels in the Black Sea:
“… The head of Ukraine’s security service, Vasyl Malyuk, without acknowledging Ukraine’s military involvement in the strike, said attacks “on the ships of the Russian Federation or the Crimean Bridge is an absolutely logical and effective step in relation to the enemy”.
He added: “Such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal.”
Later on Saturday, Ukraine’s state service of maritime and river transport announced that from this month “until further notice”, six Russian Black Sea ports – Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi, and Taman and their approaches – were in a “war risk area”.
The recent developments on sea highlight the growing willingness and capacity to strike far from unoccupied Ukrainian territory, with Friday’s hit on the Olenegorsky Gornyak landing ship showing the extent of its reach.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence said in a statement on Saturday that the 112-metre landing ship had “almost certainly suffered serious damage” and was “the largest Russian naval vessel seriously damaged or destroyed” since Ukraine sank the cruiser Moskva in April last year.
The attacks will be seen as both an attempt to take the war to Russia, as Volodymyr Zelenskiy has threatened in recent days, and to wear down the Kremlin’s logistical capacity…”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/05/russian-oil-tanker-hit-by-ukrainian-sea-drone-off-occupied-crimea
Cronus
“ This real issue is social licence, nimbyism, land owners not wanting transmission capacity on their land or more accurately, holding Australia to ransom seeking absolutely exorbitant compensation. QLD is offering landowners $300k per km of their land to house transmission poles and wires. We are fast reaching a point where the national interest must outweigh individual interests.
Compensation is entirely appropriate however it must be reasonable.”
I think there is a large political dimension to this in terms of governments reluctant to offend rural communities. So they avoid using their powers.
Much of rural Qld for example consists of pastoral leases and perpetual leases. In such case compensation might be zero. Freehold was rarely bought by the early farm settlers. Programs to pay a fee to freehold were rarely taken up, because the farmer was then confronted with the real cost of freehold, which they did not want to pay.
For these and other reasons, in my experience in rural infrastructure projects, including power, farmers often have a grossly inflated belief in what compensation they are entitled to.
In Qld Main Roads I was involved in four legal cases relating to the value of compensation of farmers over land for roadworks. We won all four.
I am not against all farmers; I dealt with some really good ones. But I met just as many people happy to have a go ripping off the system in the bush as in the city. There is no point pandering to greed, so I wish government would simply push these projects through. They have the power to do so, and will deservedly be blamed if they fail to deliver them.
One of our children resides in the State seat of Ringwood (from Bayswater)
The MP who took the seat from the Liberal Party was invisible, not reaching MP KPI’s for engagement and losing pre-selection (or not wishing to continue?) to the current MP (who formerly represented Burwood, which Seat no longer exists)
The current MP was equally invisible – so one letter box during the election campaign and nothing since
The swing to Labor in Ringwood was surprising on this basis
The comparison was the MP for Bayswater and his engagement across the community at school functions, sporting events and at shopping centres (regardless of the proximity of an election)
So chalk and cheese comparison
This view is common across school communities and junior and senior sports Clubs (where our child is active as are our grandchildren)
Not being represented by Jackson Taylor has seen a marked point of difference for those moving to Ringwood by redistribution
I see that Dan has effectively told the Federal Nats where they can shove their Commonwealth Games enquiry.
“We’ll politely decline to be lectured on integrity from sports rorts McKenzie.. that’s just not going to happen”.
RUSSIA ROBS GRAIN FROM UKRAINIAN GROWERS TO BRIBE AFRICAN COUNTRIES
“National Resistance Center: Russia moves stolen grain through Crimea and Mariupol:
The grain collected in Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast is transported through ports in Crimea, new analysis from Ukraine’s National Resistance Center said on Aug. 5.
Russian forces also take some grain through the port city of Mariupol, where trucks have been seen carrying grain toward Novoazovsk and Rostov-on-Don.
“All farmers in occupied territories are forced to surrender wheat grain to [Russian forces] at a fixed price, which is many times lower than the market price,” the National Resistance Center wrote, explaining how Russia is able to acquire grain at such a cheap rate.
The National Resistance Center hypothesizes that the grain is sent from Ukrainian territories to African markets, where governments have become concerned with grain shortages after Russia backed out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17.”
https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-2/
I generally don’t blame those African countries if they take any of this grain. They have people to feed and that trumps other moral concerns in my view.
However, we in the affluent West must scourge Russia for what it is doing. No mercy on them until they cease and desist from their murder, rape, torture, abduction, child abuse, intimidation, piracy, looting, vandalism, theft, and resource, infrastructure and home destruction.
And in regards energy transmission, one I associate with has active investment
With the ABC presentation, the comment was that in regards the presentation of who the ABC presented, some of that presentation was just plain wrong
In regards other aspects covered he did not know, but was suspicious
But the overall summary was someone grandstanding for publicity
He went to the specifics of the industry but apart from a summary of specific too much to convey here
Other things to do!!
C@t
The Assyrians were a trading nation which didn’t stop them being bloodthirsty warmongers. The Vikings were also keen traders as well as raiders. Extensive trade hasn’t stopped the US from going to war, especially for the oil. Some see mercantilism and militarism as blood brothers.
That said I can’t see China taking an overt part i this war
Socrates says:
Sunday, August 6, 2023 at 12:01 pm
Cronus
“ This real issue is social licence, nimbyism, land owners not wanting transmission capacity on their land or more accurately, holding Australia to ransom seeking absolutely exorbitant compensation. QLD is offering landowners $300k per km of their land to house transmission poles and wires. We are fast reaching a point where the national interest must outweigh individual interests.
Compensation is entirely appropriate however it must be reasonable.”
I think there is a large political dimension to this in terms of governments reluctant to offend rural communities. So they avoid using their powers.
Much of rural Qld for example consists of pastoral leases and perpetual leases. In such case compensation might be zero. Freehold was rarely bought by the early farm settlers. Programs to pay a fee to freehold were rarely taken up, because the farmer was then confronted with the real cost of freehold, which they did not want to pay.
For these and other reasons, in my experience in rural infrastructure projects, including power, farmers often have a grossly inflated belief in what compensation they are entitled to.
In Qld Main Roads I was involved in four legal cases relating to the value of compensation of farmers over land for roadworks. We won all four.
I am not against all farmers; I dealt with some really good ones. But I met just as many people happy to have a go ripping off the system in the bush as in the city. There is no point pandering to greed, so I wish government would simply push these projects through. They have the power to do so, and will deservedly be blamed if they fail to deliver them.
——————————————-
Socrates
Thanks a really good experiential post.
In relation to your last paragraph, I agree wholeheartedly.
The time for kid gloves has passed, there’s too much now at stake and pandering to very small interests or cowering to party politics won’t cut the mustard.
Lukashenko is being used as a patsy by Putin and runs a long term risk of losing his presidency to either Putin or to the Opposition if his strategy of allowing Wagner to act with impunity on Russia’s behalf continues. The weakness of Belarus is only highlighted in the current circumstances, they have no leverage whatsoever.
The stakes are being raised with a number of NATO countries through these actions and the risk of a mistake or miscalculation grows exponentially. Putin knows now that his only hope lays in doubling down, extending and even expanding the war but he has no control whatsoever of the outcome. He doesn’t even have control over Wagner or any of a number of other mercenary groups within Russia.
NATO is facing a very different scenario from any that it has previously planned for and it will require some careful planning to attempt to manage or control this this broader geo-strategic situation.