Four weeks now without a fresh Newspoll result from The Australian, making it clear that recent disruptions at YouGov have caused it to be suspended for the time being. This comes after Campbell White, head of YouGov Asia-Pacific’s public affairs and polling unit, and Simon Levy, its senior research manager, left the company to go it alone. It would thus seem that Newspoll will be on hiatus until either YouGov gets its house in order or The Australian finds someone else to conduct it. We are about due for a new Resolve Strategic poll from Nine Newspapers, which should probably be along tomorrow this so, likely to be followed one of its bi-monthly results on state voting intention in Victoria.
“Newspoll will be on hiatus until either YouGov gets its house in order or The Australian finds someone else to conduct it.”
Trouble at mill.
The Tax Office has admitted paying out more than $1.6 billion in fake GST claims as part of a $4.6 billion fraud based on a simple scheme promoted on social media platform TikTok – a total that is twice previous reports and the biggest tax fraud in Australian history.
The fraud was uncovered by Westpac and other banks, some of which passed on a series of alerts to the Tax Office from 2020. But after being frustrated by the apparent lack of action by the Tax Office, some bank staff shared their concerns informally with the Reserve Bank, which then alerted Treasury and the Tax Office in February last year.
The Tax Office launched Operation Protego to pursue the fraud on April 11 last year, and the federal police have since conducted a series of raids that have led to more than 100 arrests. There has also been compliance action against 56,000 people. Yet, the ATO has operated largely under the radar.
“We have stopped in the order of $2.7 billion in fraudulent refunds and raised liabilities in the order of $1.9 billion, as at 30 June 2023,” deputy commissioner Will Day, who heads Protego, told The Australian Financial Review. He said the liabilities included $300 million in penalties and interest.
https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/tiktok-gst-fraud-hit-on-tax-office-blows-out-to-4-6b-20230813-p5dw2y
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/what-next-for-q-a-if-not-the-end-20230811-p5dvv7.html
I gave up on Q&A years ago when it ceased to be interesting viewing. These days I suspect most people are like me in that they watch streaming platforms or catch-up TV rather than live TV.
“The Tax Office launched Operation Protego …”
Given Tax’s tardiness, Operation Post-tego would have been a more appropriate name.
Confessions: “I gave up on Q&A years ago when it ceased to be interesting viewing.”
Indeed. The standard Q&A panel of three politicians parroting party talking points plus the mandatory IPA drone did not generate enlightenment.
Q &A is well past its glory days, the program needs to be put out of its misery, and The Drum is about as boring too.
The ABC would do better spending that budget on a beefed up 7.30 and Four Corners, with better investigative journalism
People aren’t watching Q&A because it fails to hit its brief. The hosts refuse to allow free-flowing debate on the issues of the day; the politicians robotically recite their talking points and see it simply as another platform for such; and whoever the Liberal or National spokesmouth is is guaranteed to do laboriously long, circular breathing ‘answers’ and to rudely interrupt and talk over anyone else on the panel who isn’t on their side of the argument. Also, the hosts are spineless against it in the name of pusillanimous kowtowing to the Coalition. But worst of all is what the audience and their questions have become. Liberal stooges (real ones, unlike what nasty nath tries to brand us supporters of Labor here as), and special interest group advocates. With scripted questions that have obviously been worked on by media professionals and which are the ones the producers of the show always pick.
Have I left anything out? 😀
Thoughts on Bruce Lehmann seeking compensation – mine are that he is not the one that is wronged.
C@t:
That about sums it up!
The Executive Producer of Q&A is leaving the ABC to do other things, another sign the program is for the chop. I haven’t watched it in ages. As C@t said above, it has degenerated into panels of politicians giving predictable genetic answers and the standard musician or actor who frankly has little to offer.
C@t
You pretty much summed it up.
Last night was particularly bad. The housing crises Q&A did not touch the real issue, a shortage of social housing. People who are struggling are not going to show up to a session of Q&A. The class that ran Q&A and our political class are not going to be struggling. They need to start talking to people that are trying to deal with the issue.
The Greens don’t understand, they think it is about rents, the class that is struggling pay 25% of their income, so the Greens are just creating problems by preventing investment in the sector.
The ABC by tracking to the Greens are just underscoring the lack of understanding.
OK, with the thread being on pollster issues I thought it a good op to post this interview with NYT pollster via 538. Some interesting stuff on polling method and experiments. Even incentives! Nice to be cashed up.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/the-2024-election-according-to-the-countrys-best-pollster/
Scout: “Thoughts on Bruce Lehmann seeking compensation …”
A big boost for Toowoomba’s economy. 😉
Aren’t we fortunate to have the Seven network fighting in the corner of poor blokes wronged by accusations of criminal wrongdoing? 😉
Bruce and Ben, the Flower Pot Men …
A background article on Sam Kerr:
https://theawayend.co/2021/06/10/samantha-kerrs-calcutta-connection/
Talking about op in polls that really count.
Best comment for 2023
The Brexit Comedy Show is the gift that keeps on giving–truly Britain’s finest gift to the rest of the world.
Decades of new series to come.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvf6FFllDaE
Malaysia makes it illegal to wear a rainbow-themed Swatch watch due it being LGBT-related, with a sentence of up to three years in jail.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 7:48 am
Malaysia makes it illegal to wear a rainbow-themed Swatch watch due it being LGBT-related, with a sentence of up to three years in jail.
_______________
Now that is a serious fashion crime.
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange could get a David Hicks-style plea deal with the US that would see him return to Australia, United States ambassador Caroline Kennedy has told the SMH. She said such a resolution to the Department of Justice’s case against him is possible despite US Secretary of State Antony Blinken coming across hard-lined about the matter. Assange’s brother Gabriel Shipton said Kennedy’s comments show the US wants to be done with the 13-year-long saga, but what would that look like exactly? Law expert at the ANU Don Rothwell told the paper the US could downgrade Assange’s 17 espionage charges for a guilty plea — he’s already done four years in a UK prison, and the rest of the sentence could be done in Australia. But Assange fans might say it’s hard to imagine him ever pleading guilty, or going to the US to do so.
Mavis says:
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 7:38 am
A background article on Sam Kerr:
https://theawayend.co/2021/06/10/samantha-kerrs-calcutta-connection/
———
Mavis
Thanks for that link, a very enjoyable article.
Holdenhillbilly:
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 7:53 am
[‘WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange could get a David Hicks-style plea deal with the US that would see him return to Australia, United States ambassador Caroline Kennedy has told the SMH.’]
Well, that’s promising. Now, if Dreyfus zaps the charges against whistleblowers McBride & Boyle, whose trials are listed in October & November, such would be a great result for our human rights’ record.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Ross Gittins goes beyond the simple supply and demand economic theory to examine what is behind our cost of living problem.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/hate-price-rises-please-blame-supply-and-demand-not-me-20230813-p5dw30.html
Australia’s leading economists believe Australia can sustain an unemployment rate as low as 3.75% – much lower than the latest Reserve Bank estimate of 4.25% and the Treasury’s latest estimate of 4.5%, writes Peter Martin.
https://theconversation.com/we-can-and-should-keep-unemployment-below-4-says-our-survey-of-top-economists-211277
A windfall tax, or cutting income taxes, won’t fix productivity problem, argues Alan Kohler
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2023/08/14/alan-kohler-tax-productivity-problem/
The AFR’s Neil Chenoweth explains how the ATO missed a $4.6b crime wave initiated by influencers on TikTok.
https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/absolutely-rampant-how-the-ato-missed-a-4-6b-crime-wave-20230812-p5dw0l
Thousands of Labor members have thrown their weight behind a challenge to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to take stronger action on climate change and develop new policies to respond to mammoth subsidies for renewable energy in the United States. David Crowe reports that the push for change has been backed by 350 branches with formal motions that support Labor delegates who plan to call for action to wind back land clearing and native forest logging as well as boosting support for industry at the party’s national conference in Brisbane this week.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/thousands-of-labor-members-take-climate-challenge-to-albanese-20230813-p5dw5m.html
Political parties camouflage their factional policy squabbles because as we all know, disunity is death. But disagreement can also lead to fresh thinking, says Sean Kelly.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-foes-are-in-furious-agreement-and-that-s-infuriating-20230811-p5dvve.html
Shane Wright tells us that the median home insurance premium has jumped $400 in the past year, and there are warnings costs will continue to climb without government action.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/soaring-home-insurance-bills-leave-one-in-eight-households-struggling-20230810-p5dvcj.html
Lucy Carroll tells us that school principals are pushing for an urgent review of religious education in NSW public schools, warning scripture classes are disrupting the curriculum and forcing thousands of students to miss out on crucial learning time. Some schools have less than 15% of students attending Special Religious education. Isn’t it about time governments got the message?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-sydney-high-schools-where-scripture-enrolments-fall-below-15-per-cent-20230802-p5dt95.html
As the ATO ramps up its debt collection activities, cash-strapped small and medium businesses have been caught in a ‘perfect storm’ that has led to a spike in insolvencies, writes Chris Herde.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/insolvency-australia-says-appointments-rose-57pc-in-apriljune-and-more-to-come/news-story/86836ceb5e2f053947568166c38bcbe4
The latest global report on the gender gap shows Australia reversing its recent sharp downward slide, reports Alan Austin.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/albaneses-team-making-progress-on-whitlams-promise-to-women-,17803
The Minns government must completely overhaul the road tolling system so it’s fairer to motorists and delivers better value for taxpayers, urges the Grattan Institute’s Marion Terrill.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/road-mess-has-taken-a-terrible-toll-on-sydney-there-s-only-one-thing-to-do-now-20230813-p5dw3e.html
Mike Foley explains and lauds Biden’s IRA – the Inflation Reduction Act.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-i-learnt-to-stop-worrying-and-love-biden-s-ira-20230812-p5dvyy.html
Tensions between the banks and Apple are bubbling up to the surface as the government prepares to give the RBA powers over digital wallets, explains Clancy Yeates. He says tech giants, including Apple, aren’t too happy about these reforms to payment regulation aimed at reducing their influence, but the government should push ahead with its plan regardless. Not to protect the banks, but rather to support competitive pressure on the cost of digital payments – which we’re using more and more. (If the rapacious Apple is grizzling, it must indicate we’re on the right track.)
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/why-the-rba-needs-powers-over-apple-and-google-s-payments-forays-20230810-p5dvef.html
Harriett Alexander writes about the blatant money laundering that continues to happen in NSW clubs.
https://amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/within-10-minutes-20-000-was-cashed-in-and-out-of-two-pokie-games-without-a-single-stroke-of-play-20230810-p5dvf1.html
CSL has big questions to answer when it reports 2023 earnings this week, including how it is managing costs in the post-pandemic era and the performance of the iron deficiency treatments business it bought in a huge $16 billion deal last year, writes Emma Kroehn.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-country-s-largest-healthcare-company-has-big-questions-to-answer-20230809-p5dv1j.html
“National security claims” too easily trump the actual delivery of justice in our courts and tribunals. Rex Patrick looks at tampering by our national security agencies, backed by successive Attorneys-General, in the delivery of justice in Australia, and how that tampering will likely result in a grave injustice for Afghan war crimes whistleblower David McBride.
https://michaelwest.com.au/spies-like-us-how-natsec-and-attorneys-g-meddle-with-justice-whistleblower-david-mcbride/
“Let’s stop kidding ourselves we’re a rich nation and get real… the UK’s gone bust”, says Will Hutton.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/13/uk-stop-kidding-ourselves-rich-nation-gone-bust
One of America’s top military officials says he believes China’s military is becoming dangerously arrogant and is risking a conflict through miscalculation. Matthew Knott reports.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-won-t-take-the-us-military-s-calls-a-top-general-claims-that-makes-war-more-likely-20230813-p5dw4e.html
It will take the wisdom of Solomon to steer the United States back onto the path of stability and normality and so far there’s no Abraham Lincoln or FDR on the horizon capable of doing this, opines Alexander Downer who says it’s starting to look like South America.
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/america-s-starting-to-look-a-lot-like-south-america-20230807-p5dueg
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
Badiucao
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
Cheers, Cronus.
#weatheronPB
Deep blue emptiness.
Eaten by infinity,
falling into sky.
This is the week it “gets real” in Georgia for Mr T****. And for any of us who share an interest in this thing to read up on RICO, Georgia style.
Rudy Giuliani caught up in RICO is a fat irony, given his use of it back when he was prosecuting. Do we have something like RICO in Australia?
Thanks, BK and good morning all.
‘One of America’s top military officials says he believes China’s military is becoming dangerously arrogant and is risking a conflict through miscalculation. Matthew Knott reports.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-won-t-take-the-us-military-s-calls-a-top-general-claims-that-makes-war-more-likely-20230813-p5dw4e.html‘
———————————————————–
Two of China’s recent signals have been straight out contradictory.
The first was the appointment of Wang which has been followed by a charm offensive. Not a wolf warrior to be seen. The second has been an escalation in air and naval patrols that break soft Taiwan geographic ‘lines’ such as the mid point line in the Taiwan Strait. The other is the bellicosity and the physical battering of Philippines coast guard vessels trying to re-supply the crew of a beached Philippines ship on one of the disputed islands.
There are four background domestic drivers of the risk being raised above.
The first is the incessant barrage of xenophobia and hatred inducing items in the official organs. And I do mean ‘incessant barrage’. It is like having dozens of official Sky After Darks. The second is the constant touting of China’s military strength. The third is that nobody much dares to tell Xi the truth anymore. Too bloody dangerous. The fourth is the wealth-political sheep deal is under increasing stress. Deflation is touch and go. China’s labour is no longer the cheapest in the world. Western companies are leaving. Western orders for goods from China are down. Finally, the technocrats have to try to wind back decades of pump priming by way of tens of millions of empty dwellings (incidentally creating a different version of the housing crisis) and infrastructure that is not doing much by way of ROI.
Add shitstirring by assorted Taiwanese, Japanese and US warmongers and the whole thing increasingly looks like a petrol-wet bonfire waiting to be ignited.
One of my aunts, over a lifetime as a migrant in Australia, refused to learn to read english because, as she explained, that way she could not read newspapers. And she was sure she was happier not knowing what was in them.
Which brings me to the prospect of no more Newspolls…
An article on an overlooked group of YES supporters and strategic blindness.
https://johnmenadue.com/will-the-media-miss-another-massive-grassroots-campaign/
It also contains an uncomfortable Menzies quote.
LR
Thanks.
One of the things about the Yes that surprised me a bit is that the proportion of migrant yesses is higher than the proportion of native yesses.
(You’ll have to click through – if it lets you – to see the animation. Soz.)
Thanks BK!
Extracted from the Dawn Patrol (thanks, BK) authored by Patrick:
[‘…applause is regularly showered on our spies, police and security bureaucrats. They can apparently do no wrong. But privately the politicians are fearful. They fear what might happen to their secrets if they aren’t totally supportive of “national security”. No one in government or opposition wants to get offside with the secret state.’]
Although I think Patrick overstates the matter, there’s little doubt there’s some truth in what he contends. Get on the wrong side of the spooks, and leaks to friendly mastheads – principally the Murdoch stables – may follow. That said and particularly of late, his empire is showing cracks – in decline – evidenced by, inter alia, the absence of last night’s Newspoll, not to mention a News Corp profit dive of 75%.
[‘Of course, that doesn’t absolve Dreyfus. Of all our Federal Ministers he’s the one with specific responsibility as first law officer to uphold the integrity of our legal system, especially the vital principle of open justice.
He’s failing to do his duty because he’s weak in the face of Australia’s national security apparatus. He lacks the moral fortitude to sit in the Attorney-General’s seat.’]
Well, he did nolle the indictment against Collaery for exposing Australia’s wrongdoing in Timor-Leste. So it can’t really be said that Dreyfus lacks moral fortitude.
[‘As a result of this ministerial cowardice, a good man will go to jail and, at the same time, democratic integrity will suffer.’]
Can’t dispute this. But there’s still time for Dreyfus to act. He’s the one who bangs on about a public interest defence. It’s high time therefore that he bites the bullet by entering a nolle prosequi for whistleblowers McBride and Boyle – both having suffered enough!
C@tmomma says:
Also, the hosts are spineless against it in the name of pusillanimous kowtowing to the Coalition
______
When I used the word ‘kowtow’ earlier in the year I was accused of ‘casual racism’ by zoomster and C@t. I assume no stooges will have a problem with its use here.
”
Team Katichsays:
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 7:25 am
OK, with the thread being on pollster issues I thought it a good op to post this interview with NYT pollster via 538. Some interesting stuff on polling method and experiments. Even incentives! Nice to be cashed up.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/the-2024-election-according-to-the-countrys-best-pollster/
”
As per 538
How popular/ unpopular is Joe Biden
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Unpopular: 55%
Popular: 40%
As we all know there are 3 type of US voters
Republicans, Democrats and Independents ( some say there is another group called MAGAs but that is another story).
I know there is a strong argument that most Independents are Republicans, who are ashamed to be called Republicans or most of the time vote/ voted Republicans at State level ( a lot of time at federal time) but now voted Democrats since 2018 mid-term.
But the polls reflecting 40-55 for Biden indicates that most Independents are not happy with Biden even after what is unfolding regarding Republicans in front of their eyes.
Biden, other than Afghanistan military evacuation, has done pretty well for his country.
For those with an interest in proving everything is impossible:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/singapore-open-to-importing-electricity-from-india-says-ema
BW
Yes. It’s an odd feeling. If migrants share any experience, I expect it is that feeling of not quite belonging. You can spend a lifetime “coming home”. Being dispossessed is not so far from that.
Money laundering is not just taking place through the pokies and the casinos.
Think of Building companies, tattoo stores, massage therapy outlets, tobacconists just to name a few.
Fairfax journos Nick McKenzie and Ben Schneiders have done some investigative reporting with respect to organised crime and money laundering.
I understand that they are currently looking at money laundering through big building companies. In a nutshell. Drug money being laundered through building projects.
It is already well known in the construction industry that the motor cycle gangs act as the Pretorian guards
You may ask what is the building union doing about it.
My response. Cough cough cough……..
nath @ #34 Monday, August 14th, 2023 – 9:14 am
Also, the hosts are spineless against it in the name of pusillanimous bending the knee to the Coalition.
Less butthurt now, nath? 😐
‘Late Riser says:
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 9:19 am
BW
Yes. It’s an odd feeling. If migrants share any experience, I expect it is that feeling of not quite belonging. You can spend a lifetime “coming home”. Being dispossessed is not so far from that.’
————————
Yeah. I know that feeling. What was in the back of my mind is that migrants commonly have other syndromes such as ‘lock the gate once I’m in’ and ‘identify as closely as possible with the anglos’ for protective cover.
Anyhoo, good to know that migrants are on the right side of this bit of Australian history.
Very likely Georgia indictments are coming up this week.
Will be interesting to see how many people are going to be indicted.
I am expecting a healthy number. Lol
Just to show that the (former) socialist ideal of a united international proletariat is a dead mullet, the Dutch socialist leader has just announced her opposition to migrant workers in the Netherlands.
Thanks BK!
An article pointing to a saturated hospital system (ore-COVID):
https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2023/219/3/hospital-utilisation-australia-1993-2020-focus-use-people-over-75-years-age
And here is what might be proposed as a solution:
https://theconversation.com/private-health-insurance-is-set-for-a-shake-up-but-asking-people-to-pay-more-for-policies-they-dont-want-isnt-the-answer-210981
Boerwar says:
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 8:59 am
Thanks, BK and good morning all.
‘One of America’s top military officials says he believes China’s military is becoming dangerously arrogant and is risking a conflict through miscalculation. Matthew Knott reports.
Pot, kettle black…
”
It will take the wisdom of Solomon to steer the United States back onto the path of stability and normality and so far there’s no Abraham Lincoln or FDR on the horizon capable of doing this, opines Alexander Downer who says it’s starting to look like South America.
https://www.afr.com/policy/foreign-affairs/america-s-starting-to-look-a-lot-like-south-america-20230807-p5dueg
”
A South American country in North America Alexander? umm
Have you forgotten the countries just south of USA, that are not located in South America?
And he was our Foreign Minister and High Commissioner in UK, the most prized posting for anglophiles ( some say what about USA Ambassador post but that is another story)
Gas vs Induction cook tops
This debate is super shallow, we are just in the process of replacing our gas cooktop with a 4 zone induction unit.. if ..& a big if we used all 4 zones on high we would draw 8 kWh of current.. the grid can’t cope with the sort of increased load, especially when you add coming EV charging etc etc.
Plus replacing gas hot water with heat pump ..
I’m also on committee of an apartment building ( heritage 1936) in Elizabeth bay .. 8 stories & 52 apartments, 99% on gas .. it will be a massive expense to cater for that load, will require total rewire both side of apartment meters. Plus we have rings main gas boilers for the whole buildings hot water..massive cost to convert to heatpump which is the only option.
Gas is with us for another generation like it or not.
This gets zero coverage in the main stream media.
C@tmomma @ Monday, August 14, 2023 at 9:20 am:
“nath @ #34 Monday, August 14th, 2023 – 9:14 am
C@tmomma says:
Also, the hosts are spineless against it in the name of pusillanimous kowtowing to the Coalition
______
When I used the word ‘kowtow’ earlier in the year I was accused of ‘casual racism’ by zoomster and C@t. I assume no stooges will have a problem with its use here.
Also, the hosts are spineless against it in the name of pusillanimous bending the knee to the Coalition.
Less butthurt now, nath? ”
==================
C@t, I think nath would rather we used the phrase ‘kiss the ring’. He’s a descendant of Edward III, you know. 😉
”
One of America’s top military officials says he believes China’s military is becoming dangerously arrogant and is risking a conflict through miscalculation. Matthew Knott reports.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-won-t-take-the-us-military-s-calls-a-top-general-claims-that-makes-war-more-likely-20230813-p5dw4e.html
”
I have seen these kind of reporting for last 20 years and Chinese military had agressive incursions since Hong Kong became part of China.
So this ( i.e. risking a conflict through miscalculation) will not surprise me because of what happened in 1962 Indo-China war and recent conflict in Kashmir.
Sad news:
Victoria:
Monday, August 14, 2023 at 9:24 am
[‘Very likely Georgia indictments are coming up this week.
Will be interesting to see how many people are going to be indicted.
I am expecting a healthy number. Lol’]
Agree. Willis is enamoured of RICO prosecutions. Moreover, if Trump & his co-accused go down, only the Pardons Board of Georgia can approve pardons, and that’s only after time served, followed by 5 years of good behaviour. Thus the Georgia charges are the most important he faces even though the Jan 6 ones are the more serious.