The Age/Herald fills the Newspoll void with a Resolve Strategic poll on federal politics and the Indigenous Voice, and while it continues to record Labor well ahead, the margin is easily narrowest from this pollster since the election. Labor is down two from last month’s poll on the primary vote to 37%, with the Coalition up three to 33%. Labor’s previous narrowest lead out of twelve polls was seven points in two polls from September and October last year. The Greens are steady on 11% with One Nation down one to 5%. I make this out to be about 56-44 to Labor based on last election preferences, compared with around 58.5-41.5 in the last poll.
The narrowing is reflected in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings, with approval down seven to 44% and disapproval up seven to 42%, comparing with his previous weakest numbers of 39% and 32% in September last year. Peter Dutton is steady on 31% and down three to 47%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 51-21 to 46-25. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1603.
The poll records no respite in the decline in support for the Indigenous Voice, with the no lead out from 52-48 to 54-46 nationally. State breakdowns that combine this poll with the previous one to produce presentable sample sizes have yes leading 51-49 in Victoria and 55-45 in Tasmania, and trailing 54-46 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Queensland, 56-44 in Western Australia and 54-46 in South Australia.
UPDATE: Further results from the poll published today find 33% rating housing policy important enough to call a double dissolution over, with 35% opposed. Given a choice between the government serving out a full term and an election being held early next year, 54% favoured the former and 20% the latter. I expect we will also have Victorian state voting intention results from Resolve Strategic fairly shortly.
Aaron, who is getting the Crakanthorp vacancy?
i think it is silly to be not voting labor because of evenets that happind in 2010 would bethe only ceruption scandles in recent years mostly involve liberals not labor obid and tripodi are bought up to take away from gladis
laz who is getting stuaart robberts vackintsy in shadow cabenit he was asistant treasurer he has not been replaced
If we are back to discussing Rudd v Gillard and Dan Andrews then the Labor conference passed fairly harmlessly.
I worked in the Qld premiers dept when Rudd was head of the office of cabinet in that [Goss Qld Labor] government. Rudd was highly intelligent but an unpleasant control freak from day one. I don’t defend that. Yet having also worked in Canberra when Howard was PM, I would say if Rudd’s flaws disbarred you from being PM we would have very few PMs.
I thought the timing and manner of the Gillard coup was disastrous and something those responsible have never successfully defended to those outside their own circle. Gillard was great at social policy but a terrible financial manager. The whole mess meant that many of her best reforms were not lasting as Abbott knocked them down. Her cave in to miners on the MRRT, which literally cost enough tax money to fund Gonski, was indefensible.
I thought the greater disaster to befall Federal Labor then was not Rudd or Gillard, both of whom were gifted but flawed. It was those slinking out of NSW State Labor into the Federal sphere before the former government met its deserved end. They brought their damaging ways with them.
As for Shorten and Conroy, I was never a fan of either. I much preferred Albo, and still do.
The MRRT was Gillard’s substitute for Rudd/Swan’s RSPT…possibly the worst idea to ever escape captivity from a cupboard in Treasury.
The MRRT was designed by the resource behemoths. It was never going to raise any revenue. That was not its purpose. It was proposed as a way of deflecting attention from the utter failure of the idiotic RSPT.
Lars
I guess you know that Joe is currently spending his time, while awaiting trial, managing the Crazy for Candy franchise in Burwood Westfield.
Aaron – surely you know the answer to both questions? Crakanthorp vacancy replacement to be announced on Tuesday before Parly sits isn’t it?
For those interested Pat Condren has a podcast called the Red Rose – featuring Gordon Nuttall , former QLD ALP Minister. Worth a listen.
I think Victoria has gotten out of its Cwlth Games withdrawal very lightly. Not just in terms of avoiding the cost blowouts with hosting the games, but the final agreement costs as well which the news reported could’ve been a fine of anywhere up to $1B.
Also on the news they showed that annoying Greens renter MP protesting outside Labor conference about the Voice. It’s the first time I’ve seen any Greens say anything about the Voice since Thorpe defected, but it confirmed my suspicions that the Greens don’t actually want the referendum to succeed.
Q: Gillard was great at social policy but a terrible financial manager.
Under Gillard, Australia’s economy was No 1 in the OECD, the Govt sector shrank to its smallest proportion of GDP for a long time, tax take was at a historic low, the treasurer was the Worlds best…..
And yet the government was destroyed from within
The Age 19/08
Additional Cost Pressures* 2,005
*The Office of the Commonwealth Games have identified significant additional cost pressures to the budget that have been reviewed by the Department of Treasury and Finance and the Department of Premier and Cabinet.
_____________________
Reviewed by the Department of Premier and Cabinet. That says it all really.
Spin, Spin, Spin, Spin, Spin, Spin.
It wasn’t ‘leadership’ per se, although that thought is worth consideration in the broader lead up.
It was, IMO, more a governance collapse issue.
Everything froze.
Vital internal comms broke down – in some cases completely.
This was not at all readily apparent from the outside.
But from the inside it astonishing how completely stuff was gummed up.
To which you can add Rudd’s purported inability to make decisions. His In tray was apparently overflowing and it was said that others were making decisions for him. Hence, one of the overriding reasons that the Caucus turned to Julia in their time of need. She had no trouble making decisions. She just made some shockers.
Or, you could say that the idea was correct, eg Cash for Clunkers. Ahead of its time (timing is everything in politics), but poorly executed and explained. Not to mention that Rupert’s rags were in their pomp at the time and lampooned it mercilessly.
Matilda’s in Teal.
C’mon Aussie !!
Bluebaggers playing finals about time !! 😆
Torchbearer
Under Gillard, Australia’s economy was No 1 in the OECD, the Govt sector shrank to its smallest proportion of GDP for a long time, tax take was at a historic low, the treasurer was the Worlds best…..
Yes but Gillard had a big bum and her boyfriend was gay. These were things that were much more newsworthy.
On the serious side: The way PM Gillard was treated was absolutely appalling.
Confessionssays:
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 5:26 pm
I think Victoria has gotten out of its Cwlth Games withdrawal very lightly. Not just in terms of avoiding the cost blowouts with hosting the games, but the final agreement costs as well which the news reported could’ve been a fine of anywhere up to $1B.
_____________________ Interested in joining the Andrews cult Confessions ?
You would fit right in.
Rex, Victoria, Citizen, Frednk and Alpha Zero could nominate you.
I remember in roughly mid-2008 or so, my Dad would often travel to Canberra for work where he would meet with ministers and public servants. He would share all these horror stories he had heard about how Rudd had “ground the government to a halt”, that nothing was getting done and that he would likely be a one-termer at the rate things were going. I refused to believe him. My Dad was never a fan of Rudd’s anyway, surely these people he was speaking to just had an axe to grind or were telling him what he wanted to here. Everything seemed to be going so well from the outside!
Fast-forward a few years, and suddenly all that same stuff my Dad told me was being aired in the media. I still get the “I told you so” from him every so often when the topic comes up.
On Ukraine, the role of Turkey has been curious. Despite delaying the entry of Sweden into NATO, Turkey has at times done a lot to help Ukraine, other times not so much.
Now it is building some new corvettes for the Ukrainian navy. The contract had been signed before the war, but Turkey is still honouring it and may be extending it to four ships. This will take a few years but would help Ukraine stop Russia dominating the Black Sea.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/08/turkish-shipyard-lays-keel-of-ukraine-2nd-milgem-corvette/
C@t:
Apparently the only time things ever really got done during Rudd’s tenure was when he went overseas and Gillard stepped in as acting PM. Ministers stopped bothering going through Rudd and would just wait until he went on a trip and then see Gillard about it!
Why is the Lars Team ™ trolling aaron about Crackenthorp replacement?
Pathetic
Gillard seemed to be an excellent administrator and her PMship resulted in some genuinely good reforms. Holy gods were her political instincts terrible, however. No doubt she was up against it, between the hung parliament and the utterly disgraceful and misogynistic media campaign against her and dickheads in her own ranks either plotting against her or just getting caught up in seedy scandals, but there were a lot of unnecessary own goals during those three years that were completely on her.
Taylormade says:
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 5:53 pm
The Age 19/08
Additional Cost Pressures* 2,005
*The Office of the Commonwealth Games have identified significant additional cost pressures to the budget that have been reviewed by the Department of Treasury and Finance and the Department of Premier and Cabinet.
_____________________
Reviewed by the Department of Premier and Cabinet. That says it all really.
Spin, Spin, Spin, Spin, Spin, Spin.
———————————
LOL Taylormade
I’m a disinterested observer in Sydney. From up here it is easy to assess the Victorian government landscape with clear eyes and no ideological baggage.
Victorians got off lightly from pulling the plug on the games. It could’ve been a whole lot worse for you Mexicans, and if you hadn’t welded yourself so firmly to being anti everything Dan Andrews you’d see that too.
Having been close to the Rudd demise, the reasons are more complex than popular myth.
A salient lessons which most leaders learn is to not become the bottleneck. All decisions don’t have to go through you. Rudd struggled with this.
He did implement the SPBC – the meaning of the acronym escapes me, but it was the Gang of Four – Rudd, Swan, Gillard and Lindsay Tanner. In effect, it made all the decisions before the other Cabinet committees got to rubber stamp. At least two of the Gang of Four where ‘not in the cart’.
And sadly, Rudd had the propensity to tell his other ministers and backbenchers to F*ck Off; if they dared to question his approach.
Had he stayed, possibly he could have mellowed – and been more Chairman of the Board than Chairman for Life.
The plotters against Rudd would have been laying the groundwork by spreading as much hyperbole about the dysfunction in Rudd’s government. Some of it even made it into The Australian a week before the Big Day. If enough members of Caucus are going around telling everyone how bad everything is, that’s gonna spread and be believed very easily.
Sweden Australia .. another on the long list of bullshit VAR decisions.. tackle was after the Swedish girl lost possession of the ball.. well after.. & was not close enough to get it back.
Of course if Rudd was so bad then why did Albo say the coup was a mistake? Is Albo that bad a judge of matters that he would go along with an administration that was irredeemable?
This Welsh referee doing us no favours.
Aaron has real insider information, you sprocket have only reported voices telling you things ( what u cal whispers ) which have all turned out to be untrue .
I wouldn’t be surprised if close to the action meant u were a bored but imaginative electorate officer.
nath, Albo was loyal to the leader – not for any deep love of Rudd – but because he knew what bringing down a first term PM would mean in the populace.
Labor struggled to a minority government, and then spent 9+ years in the wilderness.
Albo’s political judgment is second to none
LVT – hearing whispers that the Liberals will be out of power for a generation.
Sad.
Our corners and set pieces have been underwhelming
Sprocket
Agreed on Albo’s judgement.
Also Albo was an excellent infrastructure Minister as well, though that seems a lifetime ago now.
sprocket_ says:
Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 6:44 pm
nath, Albo was loyal to the leader – not for any deep love of Rudd – but because he knew what bringing down a first term PM would mean in the populace.
______
That doesn’t make much sense seeing Albo was not loyal to Gillard, and considered his role in removing her as righting a great wrong.
Lacking height in the box.
Speaking of infrastructure, three iconic Sydney Federal funded projects under the Hawke/Keating governments were the M7 ring road, the Anzac Bridge, and the 3rd runway at Mascot.
Costly debacles ever since
nath, the die was set in 2009
Anyway, I like what Mark Bishop had to say about the whole affair:
A number of people had been working towards a change, but they were patient and thoughtful men and so they allowed the ball that was rolled down the hill to slowly gain momentum and it did…In terms of professional execution, you’d have to say it was the best.
Pretty lucky to only be 1 down at the half.
UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE: US OFFICIALS REPORT BREAKTHROUGH TOWARDS TOKMAK
“US officials told CBS News that the Ukrainian military appears to have made progress in its offensive against the Russian-occupied town of Tokmak, an important barrier city between Ukrainian forces and the city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
A US official told CBS News on Thursday that Ukrainian troops have broken through a Russian minefield north of Tokmak and are now fighting the first line of Russian defence holding the city”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/19/7416212/
I take this to be referring to the line of fortified defences at Robotyne. The next line is about 6 km south, somewhere between the villages of Ilchenkove and Solodka Balka. The third line is then about 9 km south of that, just across the Chynhul River. Finally, the city defences of Tokmak itself lie just 3 km south of that third minefield. (If the US official was counting the defensive lines the other way, then that would represent a dramatic collapse of the Russian defences, resulting in a rapid surge of about 18 km in a day.)
Watching the Matildas I thought they started slow but that is understandable given the short break. I feel they are getting more into game as time goes on.
I thought the penalty was unfortunately a penalty. It does not have to be a goal scoring chance or even when in possession of the ball to be given. Any foul in the penalty area can be awarded as a penalty. It was not deliberate but clearly contact that brought down the Swedish girl and that is all that it needs to be.
Sprocket
“ Speaking of infrastructure, three iconic Sydney Federal funded projects under the Hawke/Keating governments were the M7 ring road, the Anzac Bridge, and the 3rd runway at Mascot.”
Are you sure? I was in Federal DoT when the funding deal was done on M7. That was with Howard as PM and Anderson as Deputy PM/ Infrastructure minister. The other two were funded under Hawke Keating, but all the planning for Anzac occurred at State level.
Federal DOT had/has no capacity to develop projects. They can barely do policy. Bad transport ideas usually start at State level, Inland Rail excepted.
But let’s face it, the lasting and damaging impact was that Rudd’s ego did not allow him to accept the decision. There was no self realisation. Consequently he was a far more effective than Abbott as an opponent of Gillard. The party meant nothing compared to his pride.
Asha at 6:17 pm
Everything you say, I agree with completely. Including PM Gillard’s excellent administration skills and lousy political instincts.
After the euphoria of the 2007 election victory, the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years were tough going for Labor stooges like myself.
Smartest people in the room during RGR
Lindsay Tanner
Martin Ferguson
Sweden have too much speed. Matildas doing their best but getting run down.
2-0.
Latham’s view on Ferguson
(I only quote this because it was next level vitriol)
As for Mar’n, the poor fu**wit can barely string two words together and get his tongue around the English language.”
Tanner said ‘extreme and exaggerated statements were made by cabinet colleagues about Rudd’s management style’
This game a lot like the England game. Swedes have shut us down and are too clinical so far.
Need something miraculous.