Resolve Strategic: LNP 38, Labor 32, Greens 11 in Queensland

Further signs of weakening in state Labor’s position in Queensland, including a statistical tie on the question of preferred premier.

The Brisbane Times has published a set of Queensland voting intention numbers compiled over long range from four sets of Resolve Strategic’s monthly national polling, achieving a sample of 947 from a period running from mid-May through to last week. It adds to an impression from other polling this year by YouGov and Freshwater Strategy that Labor is likely to struggle at an election to be held in October next year, with the Liberal National Party opposition opening a primary vote lead of 38% to 32% after trailing by 35% to 33% in the period from January to April. The Greens are down a point to 11%, One Nation is up one to 8%, and a generic independent category is down two to 8%.

As always, Resolve Strategic does not provide a two-party preferred result, but a judicious estimate of four-fifths of Greens preference to Labor plus two-fifths of everybody else’s comes out at 51.5-48.5 in favour of the LNP, a swing of about 4.5% compared with the result in 2020. David Crisafulli also records a 38-37 lead over Annastacia Palaszczuk as preferred premier, after trailing 39-31 last time, and his name recognition is up ten points to 68%, with Palaszczuk on 96%. Palaszczuk’s “net likeability” has gone from plus 8% late last year to minus 5% early this year to minus 15% in the latest result, while Crisafulli has tracked from plus 8% to plus 1% to plus 7%.

Now to other electorally relevant news from the Sunshine State, encompassing the Brisbane lord mayoral election in March and everything I’ve been able to ascertain so far about preselection for the state election:

• Labor has announced Tracey Price, Brisbane lawyer and sewing shop owner, as its candidate for the Brisbane lord mayoralty when local government elections are held on March 16 next year. The LNP incumbent, Adrian Schrinner, who has held the post since 2019 and was re-elected in 2020, is seeking another term. The LNP has held the lord mayoralty since Campbell Newman’s win in 2004, together with majorities on council since 2008.

• In April, Labor state secretary Kate Flanders said the new affirmative action rules requiring female candidates in 45% of seats held by the party could only be met if three currently serving men made way at the next election. One such will be Jim Madden, who announced he would not seek re-election in Ipswich West after weathering bullying allegations. The Australian reported others who might be “tapped” included Sandgate MP Stirling Hinchliffe and Ferny Grove MP Mark Furner, both ministers and members of the Right, and Toohey MP Peter Russo, who like Madden is a back-bencher and a member of the Left. A further report from The Australian in April said that Wendy Bourne, Annastacia Palaszczuk’s “caucus liaison”, was “positioned as a likely replacement” for Madden in Ipswich West. Madden defected from the Right to the Left before the last election, whereas Bourne has recently done the reverse.

• In pursuit of David Crisafulli’s target of seven women candidates four the fourteen seats identified as decisive at the next election, a number of preselections have been rolled out well in advance of an election to be held next October. In the most recent case, local mayor Clare Stewart was preselected unopposed last weekend for Noosa, a normally conservative seat that has been held since 2017 by independent Sandy Bolton.

• The LNP unveiled three women as candidates in March: Yolonde Entsch, founding director of charity Wheels of Wellness and wife of veteran federal Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch, in Cairns; Natalie Marr, real estate agent and former Townsville councillor, in Thuringowa; and Rebecca Young, managing director of Personalised Freight Solutions Global and former president of the local Chamber of Commerce, in Redlands. Entsch received unwelcome publicity in June over Indigenous grants awarded to her private company under the previous federal government.

• With the imminent retirement of incumbent Mark Robinson, the LNP preselection for the Redland City seat of Oodgeroo is developing into a high-profile preselection contest involving two former federal parliamentarians – Amanda Stoker, who failed to win re-election to the Senate last year and now hosts a show on Sky News, and Andrew Laming, who bowed out last year as member for Bowman, which he had held since 2004 – together with Daniel Hobbs, ordained Anglican priest and former staffer to Barnaby Joyce.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported in January that the LNP preselection for the Sunshine Coast seat of Caloundra, which Labor won for the first time in 2020, was expected to pit Alister Eiseman, a local car salesman, against Kendall Morton, former director of Home Care Assistance Sunshine Coast. The report said David Crisafulli was favouring Morton in pursuit of his target of women candidates, but that he was loath to push the issue out of fear of prompting the kind of local membership backlash that repeatedly thwarted Dominic Perrottet’s efforts to recruit women in New South Wales.

The Australian reported in June that Gold Coast councillor Hermann Vorster was expected to be the LNP’s candidate for Burleigh, with unidentified sources tipping the imminent retirement of Michael Hart, who has held the seat for the party since 2012.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

23 comments on “Resolve Strategic: LNP 38, Labor 32, Greens 11 in Queensland”

  1. Sriranganathan’s mayoral candidacy is pretty significant I think. I can’t decide whether I think he’s gonna bomb out with a typical Greens primary or whether he’s gonna storm past Labor’s candidate. Doubt either of them could take out Schrinner. Maybe the massive Greens campaign we’re gonna see will help with OPV preference flows and help get Tanya Price over the line

  2. Queensland Labor has bucked the trend of replacing unpopular premiers up to this point. Will the continue with this strategy or give AP the flick? With just over 12 months to go before the election I’d bet a dollar on AP not lasting much past Christmas, Late Jan early Feb for a leadership spill.

  3. Courier Mails hit job on AP seems to be working. The whole operation was about painting her as someone who loves the high life and is not as down to earth as everybody thinks. So far so good for the Murdocracys operation elect LNPs Crisafulli. Their previous operations – elect LNPs Deb Freckleton , elect LNPs Tim Nichols and re elect LNPs Candoe Newman ending up in tears. Maybe this time it will find success but when you consider that the LNP lead in polls a year out last time the Courier might end up empty handed once again. We shall see.

  4. @Princeplanet Given that the only reason the LNP lead in the polls a year out turned into a labor victory at the last election was entirely down to the Pandemic, I think we can safely say that this time the “Murdocracys ” will be successful in ousting a tired and incompetent government.

  5. One out and one back with a year to go.

    It is all in Queensland ALP’s hands. October next year is a long way away so anything could happen from here.

    Talk of a spill is just trouble making. AP has earned the right to go again if she wants to.

    I’m in Victoria and we have daily baggings of the state government. None of these articles ever mention the basket case that is the state LN parties.

  6. I’ve been thinking for a while that Labor’s relatively long run in QLD can’t last. At best minority with Greens support I think. I doubt they will replace AP – the most successful female politician in Australia’s history.

    If Crusafilli gets in it’ll be a one termer, like Borbidge, if I remember correctly.

  7. NDNW: ‘I think we can safely say that this time the “Murdocracys ” will be successful in ousting a tired and incompetent (sic) government.’

    The Murdochracy’s record is one Coalition/LNP win out of the last 12 elections … so they’ve gotta be due soon … 🙂

  8. Palasczuck is still, by far, the best thing the Government has got going for it. She can dominate and Queenslanders like that. But she does need to reenergise a bit. That said, i’d personally think that there’ll be about a 4 or 5 per cent swing against the Government and so a close result.

  9. ‘Madden defected from the Right to the Left before the last election, whereas Bourne has recently done the reverse.’

    Let’s do the Time Warp again!

  10. Qld owns most of its power assets so lowest electricity bills and massive move into renewables happening.

    L/NP will delay, defer anything they can because the sun doesn’t shine at night and the wind only blows in cyclones. Nuclear is looking good. History shows they would privatise whatever is not nailed down.
    The Pioneer River hydro will generate more power than the Snowy mountains scheme. How much could they flog that off for?

    AP was game to bring in super profits royalties and the dollars poured in. Miners are mates with Crucifooli so that can be reconsidered.

    If the Courier Mail says Labor is gone, remember they have got most of their predictions wrong since Wayne Goss. I don’t think they like Labor, is that unusual for Murdoch press?

  11. Yes Mr Ed , the fact that candoe Newman didn’t get around to flogging the power generators means the government has a level of control some others don’t have. This will be a crucial argument in the rundown to the election. $500 power subsidies will also help drive this point home when they are delivered next year. Politics is also a glass half empty/ half full caper. Many supporters of AP will say the Qld economy is one of the best, we are running a big surplus, people from around the country are voting with their feet and moving here in droves, infrastructure like trains and trams and roads are being delivered. Essential departments like QBuild are rebuilding and training the tradies of the future after being decimated by candoe and co. To others like the Mr . Nixon supporter above they are incompetent.

  12. This article is labelled ‘analysis’ but it reads more like “I set out to write a piece about the Greens being a threat, and by God, that’s what I’m going to do.”

    So let’s anaylse the analysis.

    ‘In 2016 he [Mr Sriranganathan] became the first Greens councillor ever elected in the state and represented the Gabba Ward until this year when he stepped down.

    At the time, only senator Larissa Waters represented the party federally for Queensland.’

    Ah, cause and effect.

    ‘Analysis by the ABC’s Antony Green after the 2020 council election showed since 2004, the Greens’ party vote across the wards increased from 10.2 per cent to 17.8 per cent.

    Labor’s party vote across the wards slipped from 42 per cent to 32.9 per cent.

    This could mean trouble for the LNP which prides itself on the party’s long-lasting success and stability in local government in Brisbane.’

    Well, not on those figures.

    Labor lost 10%. The Greens gained 7%. That suggests that at least 3% went to the Liberals.

    ‘Former Queensland Labor speaker and QUT Adjunct Associate Professor John Mickel said……”If it’s a park-the-vote then minor parties do very well in that and even in the last poll (Resolve Strategic), what it showed is that 30 per cent of people are not opting for the major parties.

    “In terms of the Greens at the moment, the Greens won the seat of South Brisbane last time because the LNP directed their preferences to the Greens … and another issue is at a state level the Greens don’t have any obvious leader for the public to coalesce around.”‘

    The poll referred to doesn’t suggest the Greens are surging ahead. The quotes from Mickel don’t suggest the Greens are surging ahead. There’s no suggestion that the Greens themselves are causing Labor any issues.

    But the journalist wraps it up with —

    ‘But the Greens aren’t Labor’s biggest problem.’

    No, they’re not.

    There is simply nothing in the article to justify its premise.

  13. For the LNP to win they need to make inroads in Brisbane in my opinion. Any suggestions of seats they are going to do that? Announcing a candidate early in Redlands, and holding a law and order forum in Redcliffe is hardly concreate evidence.

  14. @Princeplanet Given that the only reason the LNP lead in the polls a year out turned into a labor victory at the last election was entirely down to the Pandemic, I think we can safely say that this time the “Murdocracys ” will be successful in ousting a tired and incompetent government.

    @Nixon Did Nothing Wrongsays

    History would disagree with you. The Sunday Mail on the front page had to literally direct readers to read their editorial supporting the LNP a week out before the Queensland state election in 2015. In effort bid to save the Newman government.

    Even the Murdoch papers through their constant slagging off on Labor. Have at times admitted the LNP are useless. Your claim the ‘LNP lead in the polls a year out’ is dubious and rewriting history. The LNP’s internal polling wasn’t showing that and a string of marginal seats were leaked to the media by the LNP executive in an effort to roll Deb Frecklington as leader.


  15. The trend is certainly starting to look like it’s against the Queensland government. I was pretty dismissive of Crisafulli when he first took the leadership, but he does seem to cut a more impressive figure than Springborg, Nicholls, or Frecklington ever did (not that the competition was exactly fierce there) and his relative youth may prove an advantage against a government that’s been in for some time though. (Could also be a disadvantage, mind you.) Like Newman did, he gives off the urban Liberal vibe that’s crucial for the LNP being able to make gains in Brisbane, but also has roots in the country. The government will have been in office for over nine years come election day, have governed the state for 30 of the last 35 years, and has the added complication of a Labor government being in office federally. On paper, one would think a change of government is very possible.

    However… the laughable incompetents in the Queensland LNP are the undisputed masters of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The urban branches are infested with crazy god-botherers at a time when Brisbane is increasingly drifting leftward. Crisafulli seems to be making gains with the law and order stuff, but that seems to be pretty much all he’s focussing on right now, and it’s really only going to be potent in places that are actually suffering the impacts of youth crime. (I still remember last state election, where the LNP had a huge, scary “Labor’s crime crisis!” poster up at our booth in leafy, middle-class Mitchelton!) While Newman genuinely managed to come across as a reasonable moderate prior to taking office, the issues Crisafulli typically chooses to raise a stink about are law & order, trans people, the Voice to Parliament, and other conservative bugbears. There’s still over a year until the next election – that’s plenty of time to turn things around, particularly for a government that pretty much spent its entire life barely above water in the polls but has continued to be reelected anyway.

    Could be another Labor victory. Could be a boilover that sees Crisafulli take office. Could even end up another 2012 (insofar as that’s possible with compulsory preferential) if things go really bad. Time will tell.

  16. “Could even end up another 2012 (insofar as that’s possible with compulsory preferential) if things go really bad. Time will tell.”


    Nope. That scenario is ruled out. Campbell Newman trashed any goodwill with the public with that victory. Annastasia Palaszczuk at worst case scenario would likely lead Qld Labor to a respectable loss. She’s Labor’s best chance it’s why there hasn’t been any noises of rolling her or a succession plan.

    I keep going back to my point which is there is no evidence David Crisafulli is getting traction in Brisbane. Just a couple aimless statewide poll where the pendulum swing isn’t reliable in a very decentralised state.

  17. Asha:

    ‘The urban branches are infested with crazy god-botherers …’

    ‘… the LNP had a huge, scary “Labor’s crime crisis!” poster up at our booth in leafy, middle-class Mitchelton!’

    Indeed: Tim Mander, member for Everton (Mitchelton High, Class of 1978) is a former CEO of Scripture Union Queensland.

    Oh, and a former NRL referee …

  18. Thinking about this poll a bit more it is not super positive for the LNP. In 2012 the LNP got nearly 50% of the primary , 38% is a long way short of this. This will mean they will have pick up a ship load of preferences from other parties. These results are coming from the complaints about North Queensland and regional city youth crime and the same old complaints about the health system which will never be perfect. A bit like the anti Dan Andrews campaign about African gangs, will this be enough to turn the whole election when usually the top issues are more economic and the Qld economy is doing pretty well?

  19. I believe in opinion polls.
    Except I was burnt in 2019 which had me not believing in them for about 12 months.
    Ever since pollsters explained where they went wrong, I’ve noticed they are once again back on track.
    I was however, shocked that David Crisafulli is one point in front of Annastacia as preferred Premier this far out from the state election due in October 2024.
    Strange enough, the MSM haven’t been skiting about it as I thought they would, maybe they think as I do that its a freak poll or just fake news. I think like me they are waiting for at least a few more polls closer to the election.
    Either way, I’m not worried at this stage because I know the voters of QLD still love Annastacia for keeping them safe from COVID, especially those over 50, and bringing in an EXTRA $10 BILLION of royalties from the mining of our coal and has promised to continue the $500 electricity rebate for all Queenslanders as well as an EXTRA $700 off the bill for pensioners, unemployed etc.

  20. I watched the news yesterday for the first time in ages. Crisafulli actually came across pretty well I thought. Conversely the Premier looked .. OK I guess. But Crisafulli certainly projects better than Deb Frecklington and Tim Nichols . I’d be quite concerned if I was Labor. The Premier is still the Governments biggest asset in my opinion. But if she can’t ‘monster’ Crisafulli they are going to lose.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *