The Brisbane Times has published a set of Queensland voting intention numbers compiled over long range from four sets of Resolve Strategic’s monthly national polling, achieving a sample of 947 from a period running from mid-May through to last week. It adds to an impression from other polling this year by YouGov and Freshwater Strategy that Labor is likely to struggle at an election to be held in October next year, with the Liberal National Party opposition opening a primary vote lead of 38% to 32% after trailing by 35% to 33% in the period from January to April. The Greens are down a point to 11%, One Nation is up one to 8%, and a generic independent category is down two to 8%.
As always, Resolve Strategic does not provide a two-party preferred result, but a judicious estimate of four-fifths of Greens preference to Labor plus two-fifths of everybody else’s comes out at 51.5-48.5 in favour of the LNP, a swing of about 4.5% compared with the result in 2020. David Crisafulli also records a 38-37 lead over Annastacia Palaszczuk as preferred premier, after trailing 39-31 last time, and his name recognition is up ten points to 68%, with Palaszczuk on 96%. Palaszczuk’s “net likeability” has gone from plus 8% late last year to minus 5% early this year to minus 15% in the latest result, while Crisafulli has tracked from plus 8% to plus 1% to plus 7%.
Now to other electorally relevant news from the Sunshine State, encompassing the Brisbane lord mayoral election in March and everything I’ve been able to ascertain so far about preselection for the state election:
• Labor has announced Tracey Price, Brisbane lawyer and sewing shop owner, as its candidate for the Brisbane lord mayoralty when local government elections are held on March 16 next year. The LNP incumbent, Adrian Schrinner, who has held the post since 2019 and was re-elected in 2020, is seeking another term. The LNP has held the lord mayoralty since Campbell Newman’s win in 2004, together with majorities on council since 2008.
• In April, Labor state secretary Kate Flanders said the new affirmative action rules requiring female candidates in 45% of seats held by the party could only be met if three currently serving men made way at the next election. One such will be Jim Madden, who announced he would not seek re-election in Ipswich West after weathering bullying allegations. The Australian reported others who might be “tapped” included Sandgate MP Stirling Hinchliffe and Ferny Grove MP Mark Furner, both ministers and members of the Right, and Toohey MP Peter Russo, who like Madden is a back-bencher and a member of the Left. A further report from The Australian in April said that Wendy Bourne, Annastacia Palaszczuk’s “caucus liaison”, was “positioned as a likely replacement” for Madden in Ipswich West. Madden defected from the Right to the Left before the last election, whereas Bourne has recently done the reverse.
• In pursuit of David Crisafulli’s target of seven women candidates four the fourteen seats identified as decisive at the next election, a number of preselections have been rolled out well in advance of an election to be held next October. In the most recent case, local mayor Clare Stewart was preselected unopposed last weekend for Noosa, a normally conservative seat that has been held since 2017 by independent Sandy Bolton.
• The LNP unveiled three women as candidates in March: Yolonde Entsch, founding director of charity Wheels of Wellness and wife of veteran federal Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch, in Cairns; Natalie Marr, real estate agent and former Townsville councillor, in Thuringowa; and Rebecca Young, managing director of Personalised Freight Solutions Global and former president of the local Chamber of Commerce, in Redlands. Entsch received unwelcome publicity in June over Indigenous grants awarded to her private company under the previous federal government.
• With the imminent retirement of incumbent Mark Robinson, the LNP preselection for the Redland City seat of Oodgeroo is developing into a high-profile preselection contest involving two former federal parliamentarians – Amanda Stoker, who failed to win re-election to the Senate last year and now hosts a show on Sky News, and Andrew Laming, who bowed out last year as member for Bowman, which he had held since 2004 – together with Daniel Hobbs, ordained Anglican priest and former staffer to Barnaby Joyce.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported in January that the LNP preselection for the Sunshine Coast seat of Caloundra, which Labor won for the first time in 2020, was expected to pit Alister Eiseman, a local car salesman, against Kendall Morton, former director of Home Care Assistance Sunshine Coast. The report said David Crisafulli was favouring Morton in pursuit of his target of women candidates, but that he was loath to push the issue out of fear of prompting the kind of local membership backlash that repeatedly thwarted Dominic Perrottet’s efforts to recruit women in New South Wales.
• The Australian reported in June that Gold Coast councillor Hermann Vorster was expected to be the LNP’s candidate for Burleigh, with unidentified sources tipping the imminent retirement of Michael Hart, who has held the seat for the party since 2012.