Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 12 in Victoria

A Labor government under new management seemingly remains on top in Victoria, despite improvement for the Coalition after a dire result last time.

The Age has the regular bi-monthly Victorian state poll from Resolve Strategic, which follows the usual format of combining polling from the state over two of its monthly national surveys, despite the fact that Jacinta Allan replaced Daniel Andrews as Premier in the interim. The super-sized national poll conducted over two weeks for the Indigenous Voice has not meant a sample size different from the usual 1100. The poll credits the Coalition with a four-point recovery from its dismal low base of 28% in July and August, but still with a 39% to 32% deficit against Labor, who are unchanged. The Greens are down one to 12%, and a generic independents category is down three to 10%. The sample of 553 from last week’s polling finds Jacinta Allan leading John Pesutto 38-19, compared with 41-32 in favour of Daniel Andrews from the sample of 550 polled a month ago.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

28 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 39, Coalition 32, Greens 12 in Victoria”

  1. On 2pp that is till pushing 59:41 or thereabouts.

    The polling has to start separating the Liberal and National votes. They are different parties in all of the country except Queensland. The combined number lends the liberal party more credibility than they actually have.

  2. It looks like the LNP have succeeded in regaining support from a part of the Far Far Right by lurching even further away from the centre.
    It probably makes them even more unpalatable to the ordinary citizen. Victorian voters have historically rejected perceived extremism.


  3. KAGE, I think you’re right that the kooks on the far right fringe have shifted back to the Libs from the likes of UAP, et al .

  4. Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham:
    #ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 39 (=) L-NP 32 (+4) GRN 12 (-1) IND 10 (-3) others 7 (=)
    My 2PP estimate 57.5 (-2.5)
    Preferred Premier Allan leads Pesutto 38-19 (cf Andrews led 41-32).

  5. The preferred premier figure is interesting. The loud voices keep telling us that Dan was unpopular. Pesutto’s ranking has plummeted. Hmmmmm. Against a lady too! How humiliating for him.

  6. The Commonwealth Games stuff up is fairly serious and looks bad. But on the other hand, the cancellation was to save the state significant amounts of money so was was justifiable. The biggest part of the stuff up was agreeing to host them in the first place.
    I don’t think it is going to be the vote loser that the opposition thinks it is. But then again they are grasping at straws because they have nothing else to distract them from their own trouble.

  7. Mabwm – The question is “who do you prefer out of the two leaders”. Because to the wider public Allen is not very well known, many more voters don’t know who they prefer. Andrews was extremely unpopular with those who didn’t like him, extremely popular with those that did and only small percent were indifferent (like 20%).
    So the fact PPM has gone 41 – 32 between Andrews vs Pesutto to 38 – 19 Allen vs Pesutto is largely because a lot of voters who preferred Pesutto to Andrews have yet to make up their minds about Allen. There are only 19% who are either rusted onto Pesutto or who actually have made up their minds about Allen.

  8. @bs Fairman – I don’t necessarily disagree with you.

    19% rusted on won’t win you an election.

    I’m surprised how high Allan’s preferred premier rating is. She is either better known than most think or it reflects a very strong anyone but Presutto vote.

    This poll is devastating to his leadership. Life as oppo leader is very unfair.

    Either way the Libs are in trouble.

    Re the empire games, I’m not sure it is the vote turner the Libs want it to be. It is a barnacle. Just how big and how many barnacles the government can carry remains to be seen.

  9. As usual The Age try to headline this as a big win for the Coalition by focusing on the primaries only,

    The preferred Premier angle is interesting as it might demonstrate that there was a subset who prefer Labor to the Libs in Victoria but disliked Andrews and are willing to get behind Allan. But it’s really hard to say with Resolve’s rolling poll. The next time around will be more interesting.

  10. I don’t think anyone but hardcore monarchists and the handful of people directly involved with the various sports could give a flying stuff about the Commonwealth Games. Then Dan resigning blew that out of the news cycle anyway.

    Absolutely no-one will care in 2026 about it. If the LNP are dumb enough to run on it as an issue it’ll be as irrelevant as the stadiums issue was to the NSW election the coalition won before the recent loss.

  11. If a government pulled out of a future Olympics that would be big news (and probably also justifiable given how their costs inevitably blow out!), but the Empire/Commonwealth Games have had their day. Victoria was the only bidder for 2026, Alberta Canada has recently ditched their bid for 2030. So it seems now there will be NO Games in 2026 or 2030, which surely means that’s the end of them.

    I think Pesutto lost a lot of ‘Brownie Points’ when he was so ungracious on Andrews’ retirement. It was surprising, but maybe it’s more evidence of his inevitable capture by the nuts in his party. To me 2026 looks gone already for the Liberals and Nationals, which would mean Labor in power for 38 of the 48 years 1982-2030, and 27 out of 31 for 1999-2030. Robert Menzies’ “Jewel in the Liberal Crown” seems to have turned into a very red ruby!

  12. And if Dutton had to kick indigenous people to hurt Albanese, he would kick as many as he needed to kick. This is who they are.

    Not really a vic thing though…

  13. Oh please, Dutton is perfectly capable of opposing the voice for his own racist reasons. Saying Dutton is “only” doing it to hurt Albo lets Dutton off the hook.

  14. As Malcom Fraser said all those years ago the Liberal Party is no longer a liberal party

    Now we have Pooshooter from the IPA

    And the election of a Pentecostal “educator” in Warrandyte (cleverly not contested by Labor for the reasons it adds to the Pentecostal numbers versus the IPA numbers so the internal warfare is stoked)

    So the far right “God makes babies” is buoyed, some returning their support to what was the Liberal Party

    Meanwhile the Teals hold what were the blue ribbon Liberal Party electorates

    I understand, albeit from disenfranchised old guard Liberals, that the Liberal Party support remains at sub 30% on primaries

    So more of the Greater Melbourne seats will fall – only holding the seats with strong Pentecostal numbers, so where their “Churches” are being the foothills of the Dandenongs including around Warrandyte

    In SA we have seen various attempts to establish Conservative parties, led by the likes of Marcus Oliphant (when SA Governor), Robin Millhouse, Steele Hall and still they fracture, including when they gain government then perishing after just the one term (how many moved to the Cross bench seeing a minority government and why?)

    And all this with the unflinching support of our media barons including in a one paper State such as SA

  15. Jeez… Talk about over the top excitement over the Dan spotting in NYC. He was “unrecognisable” because he had grown a beard.

  16. No one has yet to put their hand up to host 2026 or 2030 commonwealth games.

    I don’t see why Victoria needs to compensate the Games Authority.
    If the Games are worth doing, new hosts should be lining up to do so.

    From what the vic govt had indicated, the security costs alone made them unviable.

  17. Victoria – They already have compensated the Commonwealth Games Association to the tune $360 Million. That was a finalised payment.

    Someone will put their hand up to host a reduced Commonwealth Games in 2026 (probably in the UK). Trying to host 23 sports over multiple sites in multiple cites that lack accommodation was a bridge too far. Try 10 sports in one place.

  18. B S Fairman

    Vic govt only agreed to do them if they were not concentrated in the CBD.

    Hotels accommodation and security costs was not worth the angst.

  19. It should have been marketed as the Commonwealth Games in Geelong (say) but then just used the AFL oval, a few other bits and pieces, maybe a nice new indoor pool, and been scaled right back.

    Anyway it’s just not cricket…or football…to have such a skewed competition. A few developed economies and a very long tail of small ex British colonies with relatively low incomes and no ability to furnish professional competitive teams or athletes in the huge range of sports, and fly them all the way here.

  20. Given that the 2006 Commonwealth Games is within recent memory, and as flashy as it was, I imagine there were some behind-the-scenes problems that Andrews and Allan did not want to see repeated. Presumably under-funding to public transport maintenance that led to the disastrous problems in the summer of 2009.

    I’m happy to give up another round of Imperial Sportsball to proper investment in transport projects. Plus the promised sporting facilities in the regional cities are still going to be built.

  21. A bearded Andrews. Says it all about today’s media. Superficial, self serving, inaccurate, “ don’t get it right, get it written” and historically irrelevant.
    Andrews is gone. Allan now has a task – it’s called transparency. If she obfuscates, or if she lies, or plays a media favourite game the Government will fall.
    Governments lose elections, oppositions rarely win – with the recent exception of Kevin 07.

  22. Al pal, you make some interesting points. The issue in Victoria is there is absolutely no one else to vote for. Labor has the centre left, the Centre, and the centre right. The greens have the left. The Nats have the country vote. The libs have the fundamentalist Christian right.

    The greens will chisel a couple of seats from the ALP. The Alp will pinch a couple more outer suburban seats where the voters are revolted by the fringe lunacy and infighting of the libs.

    Jacinta has the next election in the bag, barring disaster and a radical reformation of the liberals. The disaster could happen, but I’m not seeing a reformation. Martin Luther would be all out of luck in Pesutto’s party.

    But, transparency is a must. Now is the time to do it when the barnacles can be sheeted home to Comrade Dan.

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