Indigenous Voice referendum minus two days

Mixed messages on voting intention among the younger cohort, and the first data in some time on how the Indigenous community plans to vote.

Roy Morgan has an Indigenous Voice poll of 905 respondents conducted last Monday to Sunday showing a relatively modest lead for no of 50-45. The accompanying release relates that we will shortly see “full results of surveying over the last two weeks, including detailed state-by-state, gender, age and party support breakdowns”.

There’s a fair bit of this sort of thing around at the moment, notably a Resolve Strategic document running to 100 pages covering every imaginable detail of this week’s 4728 sample poll, barring a few redacted details that are being held back to provide material for Nine Newspapers reports. The difference between Resolve Strategic’s 56-44 to no and Newspoll’s 58-34 comes largely down to the 18-to-34 cohort, which is difficult to poll and accordingly tends to get upweighted. Resolve’s has it breaking 62-38 in favour of yes, while the Newspoll has it at 49% no, 46% yes and the rest uncommitted.

The main story from the poll is that it’s the first one to provide any indication of Indigenous support since early in the year, after going to particular effort to secure a sub-sample of 420 (the report stresses that this “will not adequately cover remote communities”). The result is a split of 59-41 in favour of yes, a good deal narrower than much-disputed figures of 80-20 from earlier in the year. Kevin Bonham knows something I don’t in relating that “there is another one of these coming from another pollster that is mid-high 60s but smaller sample”.

There is also some further detail in The Economist in the other day’s poll from British outfit Focaldata, emphasising an age gap that looks more like Resolve’s than Newspoll’s. The accompanying multi-level regression with post-stratification exercise that produced demographically related estimates for each House of Representatives seat was discussed the other day on Twitter by pollsters Kos Samaras and Shaun Ratliff, the former saying it “missed demographic nuances, including education levels and ethnic make-up of regional seats” (more recently arrived groups being stronger for yes), the latter saying at least double the 4000 sample would be needed for duly robust results. UPDATE: More from Focaldata here.

UPDATE (13/10): There is now also a result from YouGov that has no up three points from its poll last week to 56%, with yes steady at 38%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519. Roy Morgan has also expanded on the poll reported above as being conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 905, with a field work period now extending to today (Thursday) and a sample up to 1419. It has no leading 51% to 44%, breaking down to 49% to 46% in New South Wales, 64% to 30% in Queensland, 54% to 44% in Western Australia, 51% to 39% in South Australia and 52% to 47% in Tasmania, with yes leading 54% to 42% in Victoria (with due regard to small sub-samples here, particularly in the smaller states).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

57 comments on “Indigenous Voice referendum minus two days”

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  1. If he’s of the generation that migrated here in the 70’s and 80’s, he would’ve been about as poor as the average Aboriginal when he got off the boat (and just as much a target of racist abuse), without the benefits that they got, and embittered against them as a result. Old Italians get the same way. “I came to this country with nothing but the shirt on my back and worked hard for what I have!”, they’ll growl.

    (Has Dai Le had anything to say about the Voice? She’s of that generation.)

  2. Yes would need to get 57% or more in NSW, VIC, SA and TAS to override what are likely to be big NO votes in QLD and WA, to achieve a national majority.

  3. In going shopping with my son and his 10 year old daughter this afternoon after school, my son on picking me up said that he and his wife had pre voted today and had voted “Yes”

    My granddaughter asked if I had voted yet and I responded that Nanny and I will be voting tomorrow

    I was further questioned as to how we were going to vote

    I responded that when I looked in the mirror I see what I see, that whilst I was voting the vote was not about me

    It is about trying to improve the circumstances of some who live in our society and in this case our First Nations people

    And that both Nanny and Granddad would be voting “Yes”, me for my reasons and Nanny for hers

    My Granddaughter continued that her maternal grandparents said they were also voting “Yes” but that my Granddaughter did not believe that was the case – that they were just saying that then “We don’t talk about these subjects” and changing the subject

    The perceptions of children, hey?

    You never underestimate them

    They will inherit the World we leave for them and, when we are no longer here will call us to account because of what we have left them

    So our Granddaughter will know for ever that her paternal Grandparent’s voted “Yes” and the reason why we voted that way

    I am most comfortable with that

    It may not be the legacy our generation leave but it is the legacy my wife and I will leave

    Versus voting “No” or saying you were voting “Yes” when you were voting “No” – and to evade any questioning by inquiring young minds

    Across my Granddaughter’s life, she the eldest of 9 Grandchildren, this matter if the vote is “No” tomorrow will resurface – because it has to

    It is not going to go away if the vote is “No” tomorrow – it will just fester and fester until it has to be lanced

    And when it does again become the subject of a National vote, to another generation, our Granddaughter will recall 2023, her Nanny and her Granddad

    The other interesting observation from today was our morning coffee where some 15 attended also for our morning walk, all voting “Yes” some on the basis of the proponents of the “No” vote and refusing to be aligned with such groups, Dutton copping a shellacking

    And back to my Granddaughter, my son did offer “well you know that Nanny and Granddad are not your typical oldies stuck in the past and afraid of change”

    I reminded him there were others such as us witness this morning

    “Luv you Granddad”

    “Luv you too Granddaughter”

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