The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll gets a rare guernsey as a dedicated Poll Bludger post due to the need to keep an open thread somewhere near the top of the page, between the latest Indigenous Voice post and a forthcoming look at Saturday’s election in New Zealand. Labor leads 53-47 on the latest numbers, out from 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up half), Coalition 34% (down three-and-a-half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). The disparity between the movements on the former and latter measures suggest Labor got a weak respondent-allocated preference flow this time around – previous election preferences would have it at more like 54-46.
UPDATE: It appears YouGov federal polling will be a weekly event. As well as Indigenous Voice numbers featured in the relevant post, it latest numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation on 6%. Anthony Albanese’s net approval is at steady at minus 3%, while Peter Dutton has improved from minus 17% to minus 12%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Albanese’s lead shifting from 50-33 to 50-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 6:16 pm
For those who were getting their Ukraine War feed off Enough Already, the latest phase in the fighting involves a switch from Russia being on the defensive to Russia being on the offensive.
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From what I understand that was in Andrivka. And they got arses handed to them.
With five of the 8253 polling places counted, almost 80% of the vote has been for no
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Banjo territory?
‘nath says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 6:19 pm
Boerwar says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 6:16 pm
For those who were getting their Ukraine War feed off Enough Already, the latest phase in the fighting involves a switch from Russia being on the defensive to Russia being on the offensive.
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From what I understand that was in Andrivka. And they got arses handed to them.’
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(1) yes
(2) most likely
(3) the reporting is silent on whether Ukraine Army is still trying to advance elsewhere…. but perhaps not.
Catmomma:
… uhh, what?
Mt Lawley is the inner northern suburbs, Floreat is the western suburbs (northern tip of the golden triangle). They’re nowhere near each other. That’s like saying Newtown and Clovelly are next door to each other.
Mt Lawley is old-money posh if you’re north of Walcott St; south of it, it’s more of a gentrified hipster area. Think Fitzroy / Brunswick in Melb, or Newtown / Leichhardt in Sydney. It used to have a lot more musos in old sharehouses before the property market went vertical – I’ve been to a fair few house parties after gigs there, back in the day. (That would be the bit you remember, Nath – ever drunk at the Flying Scotsman?) Now you need to be making six figures to live there – bloody gentrification.
🙂
It’s Time for the silent majority to tell the cookers etc. to STFU.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 8:22 am
‘While there was consensus on how to create a more inclusive society for people with disability, the commissioners in the comprehensive inquiry that wrapped up last month were seriously divided on key recommendations. And that means despite the government’s initial enthusiasm for solutions from the royal commission, it may simply kick the report into the long grass, or the too-hard basket., writes a concerned John Hewson.
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/topic/2023/10/14/divided-over-disability-care‘
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Thank you, BK.
One heavily contested recommendation is to close special schools. My view is that that is a huge mistake.
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+1. I had a more extensive reply but lost it in the ether. It’s a long way for electrons to travel from Finland.
It’s a long way to the shop if you want a Chiko Roll.
Damage to gas pipeline, telecom cable connecting Finland and Estonia caused by ‘external activity’
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/finnish-president-undersea-gas-telecom-cables-damaged-external-103858858
Well that’s that, I fear. The scummy bad faith actors in the no campaign, the dopey bad faith “journalists” and the hopelessly incompetent yes campaign (including the federal government) can all hang their heads in shame
I’ll just leave this out here.
The difference between the yes and the no voters are the “don’t know”. They have been encouraged to vote “no” because of vague ideas of division, possible resentment that their problems are not getting top billing, “details” and just plain “if you don’t know vote no” (which encapsulates the moral vacuum of the “no” camp that they don’t even put an argument.
There are, of course, committed “no” voters. I won’t go into their motivations, but my best guess is that they are so aligned with populist or conservative politics that their votes in the next Federal election will not change. (“Progressive no” voters are so few on the ground that they have no political significance).
Of the rest, the complete lack of engagement they have had will carry on after the referendum is over. They will go back to their lives and not give another moment’s thought to entrenched indigenous disadvantage. The opposition and their boosters in places like this and the greens will, of course, try to maintain the rage, but Albanese has already signalled he is not going to engage in such a public way in this issue before the next election.
Committed “yes” voters will, however, be very angry. While some will appear to blame Albanese and Labor for the way they progressed the referendum (and interestingly I have not seen a single indigenous “yes” proponent criticise Albanese and the Government) those whose natural alignment is with the conservative side of politics will remain angry with Dutton and Littleproud. We know for the “Liberals for “yes” campaign, and the principled resignations of Leeser and Gee, that there are not a few of these people.
I cannot see a loss in the referendum as anything but a bad thing for the Opposition. Which is the only silver lining. But a great one for those who care about a wide range of things in Australia that only a Labor government in its second term can fix.
The other silver lining is the polls getting it pretty right so far
The average of all the polls combined is usually pretty accurate despite conspiracy theories by those in denial (e.g. Newspoll/Murdoch are lying to us).
Yes I agree, just another journos talking point that polls can’t be relied on anymore. I was clinging to hope that somehow the first referendum polling in a long time was gonna miss the mark, but that didn’t happen
Evening all. Back from a lengthy afternoon at a booth on the northern boundary of Sturt in SA. Overall the public were very polite and the poll functioned smoothly.
This is a fairly well educated area more likely to vote Teal than Dark Blue but I felt the overall mood was more positive to Yes than No. Lots of people avoided eye contact and HTVs either way. Only one grumpy old man all afternoon said people voting Yes should be ashamed (of their lack of racism?) but pretty smooth day really.
I read somewhere that the country booths would be counted first, which would largely account for the very large disparity in the early returns.
All over red rover. AG might as well call it.
NZ election is looking equally grim. Oh well! Life goes on
NZ virtually over as well. Might as well have stuck with Ardern
Boerwar @ Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 6:15 pm
Thank you, BW! Yes, times are tough for some Bludgers at the moment.
And we should also thank Lidia Thorpe. Holy f*cking moly. It’s a good thing No got up, or it would’ve been a genocide or something. Actually I think she was arguing that simply holding the referendum was genocide?
Dan Andrews has left the building – but the Murdoch obsessive headlines remain.
Twist: Dan Andrews deprives Victoria of their Montreal moment
https://youtu.be/c2zurZig4L8
Forget Thorpe. Basically irrelevant.
Dutton was the one who made the difference. Mendacious. Malicious. Divisive. Racist dog whistling. Anger provocateur.
Dutton owns this.
JenAuthor says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 9:53 am
I tend to watch SBS news first because they cover the rest of the world more thoroughly.
I have been particularly disappointed in their voice coverage — again because of their ‘balance’ objective.
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Then give me fact over ‘balance’ any day. It’s merely another means by which the forces of evil can attempt to justify their positions by insisting on equal airtime regardless of the lies.
Not an actual headline, obviously. “Twist” is getting on my goat.
A lot of those Teal seats that Dutton needs to win back are all voting YES according to AG. Spud has no chance of regaining them at this rate.
Just saw a report on ABC about how the Teal seats (and Benelong) in NSW are voting “yes”. Most of those “yes” voters will be very angry at the vicious and dishonest “no” campaign and will carry that anger through to the next election day. Triumphant “no” voters – nah.
AG has called the Voice lost at 7:24 AESDT.
Thorpe is a great advocate for her people NOT. She will be getting nothing at all now for her “mob” in her lifetime.
The lazy and the credulous are there for the taking by organised ratbag outfits.
I think Anne Twomey might have been right in saying that no referendum in the future will get up.
Hoping Albo moves on quickly from this. He gave the indigenous what they wanted as an election promise. He needs to concentrate on winning the next election now.
steve davis @ #875 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 7:21 pm
Dutton is exactly how Mark McGowan described him. “There’s not much there”.
Dutton is actually Albo’s greatest electoral asset.
steve davis @ #880 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 7:31 pm
Well, as PM he needs to improve the lives of FN’s people. It’s just not good enough at the moment.
‘steve davis says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:25 pm
Thorpe is a great advocate for her people NOT. She will be getting nothing at all now for her “mob” in her lifetime.’
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Forget Thorpe.
Think Dutton.
Thorpe says she’s sad for her people. Well, she looks very chuffed with the result on the ABC.
steve davis says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:31 pm
Hoping Albo moves on quickly from this. He gave the indigenous what they wanted as an election promise. He needs to concentrate on winning the next election now.
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He is genuinely committed to improving the lives of indigenous people through giving them agency. Given the last six months or so, he will not be doing it in a public way so as to expose them to further abuse and racism (yes, it’s about indigneity but racists are racists). It can be done through a better use of the bureaucracy than giving contracts to ticket clippers and other parasites.
Somebody must have given Thorpe a heads up about her excessive use of “I”, “me” and “my” because she corrected herself and changed “my people” to “our people”.
I would like to see Thorpe and Price hounded until they give proper sit down interviews with a competent journalist.
Thorpe because she may as well be talking gibberish for all the sense anything that comes out of her mouth makes.
Price because I thought we had already agreed colonialism was bad for indigenous people. But as it seems we haven’t, I do not believe we can now go any further until we settle that issue once and for all.
I agree with BW that Thorpe is irrelevant so I wouldn’t be overly fussed if we just go back to ignoring her.
But Price’s views I want aired and dissected in detail. I see no way forward until we’ve addressed these issues.
And as for all the lazy, entitled sods who didn’t know so they voted “no”……the correct response to not knowing would obviously be to donkey vote if you just couldn’t be bothered. So I have to assume they are closet racists.
In the interim, the referendum has confirmed my view that we are the racist shithole backwater we’ve always been.
it seems linda burney might have toretire after this vote albanese did not sell the vote very well
Aaron newton says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:58 pm
it seems linda burney might have toretire after this vote albanese did not sell the vote very well
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It’s not always about the politics.
Labor has to make a big effort to set up alternative mechanisms to ensure its programs are well-designed and deliver positive outcomes. Linda Burney could be critical to achieving this. And Labor has to win multiple terms to make it more difficult for rapacious, corrupt conservatives to get in power and unwind effective Labor programs.
Waiting for Murdoch scum to call for Albos head as I predicted a couple of months ago. Lets see.
I suspect that this referendum has reinforced the notion that “gubba” Dutton will never become PM.
The Liberals need to begin the process of sorting their remaining stock of politicians, remove those likely to be publicly compromised by past indiscretions and identify some possible leadership potential.
The Liberals looked finished in the inner parts of the big cities and need to concentrate on their working class supporters.
Good luck with that!
Unfortunately, the Referendum was defeated. I am most disappointed, I am not sure that Australians are racist but many hate the Aboriginals.
Bird of paradox @ #855 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 6:26 pm
I owned a house in Highgate in the 1980s. So I’m pretty familiar with where Floreat is wrt Mt Lawley. You have to go out through West Leederville and Wembley, down Cambridge St. So I should’ve said, kinda sorta near Mt Lawley. My late husband was a muso too, so I also get where you’re coming from about the parties. 😉
Most Australians are probably just going to get up tomorrow and go on with their lives, probably glad the whole thing is over. And for them it will be.
For others though, it will be far from over. They will be angry and hurt and sad. Of course, this applies most to the majority of First Nations people who had hoped that a Voice would provide hope and be a way forward. But I would also like to mention the many decent non-Indigenous Australians who gave up their time and spent their energy actively campaigning for the Voice. These people became deeply engaged with this worthy cause and, after all this time and tonight’s result, must be feeling devastated. I know that this applies to a number of people who post here and I truly hope you are ok.
I have family overseas and we visit them when we can. If anyone asks what happened and what that says about Australians, I think I’ll just reply that if you weren’t there you could never understand how it was politically hijacked by soulless people who were prepared to fight filthy and sink to truly depraved depths to score points and further their own ambitions without any care or consideration for the consequences and their effect on First Nations people.
Winston Churchill fought the Battle for Britain but got tossed out at the next election by people who were grateful for his war time leadership but still thought he was an arsehole. Peter Dutton fought hard and dirty for his NO victory but people will still think he’s an arsehole.
First one off the rank:
Sky News host Andrew Bolt has suggested the Prime Minister “should go” for subjecting Australia to the “poison” of the referendum during a fiery clash over the fallout of the Yes wipe out.
nadia88says:
Friday, October 13, 2023 at 9:47 pm
Asha says:
Friday, October 13, 2023 at 9:41 pm
Nadia:
Hmm. Yeah.
Suspect we won’t be seeing that late swing back to Yes that some have been predicting.
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No Asha, no swing back on the horizon. Will be a six-nil defeat, and about 60% to 40% overall No.
Best to have a break from PB over the weekend. It’s going to be awful here in 24 hrs time.
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Accurate pick by this “Nadia88”, when all the postals get counted. Notice you didn’t post tonight.
Hope you enjoyed the result!
One question is the impact of polls
Are they in fact push polling by media looking to influence the result and particularly when it is a simple Yes/No question?
The majority are voting “No” so I will as well
It is interesting that after giving so much coverage to the “No” proponents (refer Tingle) media and certain of their Tory supporting media heads came our immediately prior to the day supporting a “Yes” vote
So why not from the outset?
Why on the last day before polling?
This is obviously to play up the Opposition Leader and his narrative that fault for the vote is with the prime minister, who should now resign and a general election held
Media will play this for all it is worth at the direction of Murdoch, Stokes and Costello (and the ABC read Tingle)
It has been their game plan all along
It reeks of Textor/Crosby both in the UK and in Australia (vote Labour and you get the Scot’s controlling Westminster etc etc)
What they overlook is the way to government, turning 55 Coalition seats into 76 and government
Starting with ousting the Teals who now represent their former Blue Ribbon seats
Then taking seats off Labor (with the benefit of incumbency)
Noting also that near half their 55 Seats out of 151 are in Regional and Rural Queensland
And that polling shows a swing to the ALP since the last election
The interesting matter will be the Senate, replacing Senators elected on the Coalition winning the General election
So can we get a Senate reflective of successive ALP general election wins?
This is what the Tories really fear
It will cement their irrelevance
“Here We Go Again”, is there a traumatic event in your past that fuels your desperate fear of punctuation?
New thread.