Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

Another poll finding Labor comfortably ahead despite the seemingly imminent failure of the Indigenous Voice project.

The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll gets a rare guernsey as a dedicated Poll Bludger post due to the need to keep an open thread somewhere near the top of the page, between the latest Indigenous Voice post and a forthcoming look at Saturday’s election in New Zealand. Labor leads 53-47 on the latest numbers, out from 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up half), Coalition 34% (down three-and-a-half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). The disparity between the movements on the former and latter measures suggest Labor got a weak respondent-allocated preference flow this time around – previous election preferences would have it at more like 54-46.

UPDATE: It appears YouGov federal polling will be a weekly event. As well as Indigenous Voice numbers featured in the relevant post, it latest numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation on 6%. Anthony Albanese’s net approval is at steady at minus 3%, while Peter Dutton has improved from minus 17% to minus 12%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Albanese’s lead shifting from 50-33 to 50-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

897 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. There will be a moratorium henceforth on discussion of the situation in the Middle East, except insofar as it relates directly to Australian politics.

    There are new posts on a Victorian poll here and the Indigenous Voice here — a promised post on the New Zealand election will appear later today.

  2. House Republicans on Wednesday nominated Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) to be the next Speaker, sending his candidacy to the House floor following Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) stunning ouster last week, multiple lawmakers told The Hill.
    Scalise secured the nomination 113-99 in a closed-door GOP conference meeting, defeating House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) in a close race that did not have a clear front-runner heading into the internal vote.
    Scalise will now take his candidacy to the House floor, where he will be up against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who Democrats nominated for Speaker on Tuesday night.

  3. Newly installed Premier Jacinta Allan has a commanding lead over Opposition Leader John Pesutto as Victorian voters’ preferred premier, but the primary vote gap between the two major parties has narrowed to its tightest margin in a year. Support for the government has remained steady over the past two months, with Labor recording an unchanged primary vote of 39 per cent despite the resignation of Andrews in September.
    The Liberal Party has managed to claw back some support from independents and minor party candidates, lifting the Coalition’s primary vote by 4 percentage points. The poll’s margin of error was 3 per cent across the full two-month poll.
    While Labor’s vote hasn’t budged since August, the Coalition’s primary vote is now 32 per cent – the highest it has been since the state election last November. The gap between the two sides is now 7 percentage points, representing a tightening since June when the margin between Labor and the Coalition widened to 15 per cent.
    The tightening of the primary vote failed to deliver a personal boost to Pesutto, whose popularity as the state’s preferred premier slumped to just 19 per cent after Allan won the support of Labor’s caucus to become premier.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/jacinta-allan-maintains-commanding-lead-over-coalition-but-gap-narrows-20231010-p5eb5f.html

  4. Incredibly (or not), Steve Scalise is still not home and hosed for US House Speaker:

    “Jim Jordan, defeated in the Republican vote to decide a nominee for House speaker, plans to vote for the man who beat him, Steve Scalise, when the question comes to the House floor and is encouraging his colleagues to do the same, a source with direct knowledge tells the Guardian’s Hugo Lowell.

    Scalise will only be able to lose four Republican votes if he is to be confirmed as speaker, presuming all Democrats in the closely divided chamber vote no.

    Matt Gaetz, the Florida hardliner who orchestrated the brutal ejection of the last speaker, Kevin McCarthy, has said today he will vote for Scalise. But other Republicans – the familiar contraversialists Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert among them – have said they will not back Scalise.

    The Washington Post points to the biggest problem facing House Republican leaders, causing them to recess the chamber without a vote: too many members of the caucus are currently set to vote for McCarthy.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/oct/11/house-speaker-vote-republicans-mccarthy-trump-biden-israel-us-politics-live

    How many rounds of House floor votes is it going to take this time for the US Republicans to get their act together to achieve even a minimally functioning organ of Government?

  5. There was never going to be bipartisanship. Releasing exposure draft legislation would only have given the Noes more ammunition. Legislating the Voice alone would have once again been whitefellas telling blackfellas what was best for them. Delaying the referendum until the next election would have guaranteed the loss of both the election and the referendum.

    Yes advocates say the Noes tapped into a deep well of racism, others that the referendum has created a hell of a mess.

    The Noes blame Yes for dividing Australia, which is a bit like claiming black is white. They claim it’s the biggest change to the Constitution ever proposed. Wrong. That was the republic. Their most potent argument against that was if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Those same people, notably Tony Abbott, know this system is broken, offer no solution and instead seek to destroy the Voice by claiming it will encourage “separatism.”

    As if such a modest change to set up an advisory body creates a new apartheid. Confronted by tough questioning, they scream bias. In fact, they have had a good run. Too good.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-miserable-fact-of-the-voice-we-were-always-destined-to-get-to-this-point-20231011-p5ebcs.html

    Niki Savva has articulated this well. I was reading yesterday that celebrities aren’t endorsing a Yes vote in the same way they did for marriage equality, because they get attacked and called elites wading in where they shouldn’t. The No campaign has managed to effectively silent people with a platform who could be advocates for change.

  6. Is the fact that Gym Jordan couldn’t get enough votes to be Speaker of the House, another small sign that Trump’s influence over the Republican Party is waning? Even if only a tiny little bit?

  7. Ken Wyatt has Jacinta Price pegged (and Peter Dutton too):

    When we spoke a few days ago, Wyatt was as unsurprised as he was unimpressed by Dutton’s conduct of the No campaign in the referendum.

    Wyatt dismissed the fevered commentary about Jacinta Nampijinpa Price becoming prime minister. He reckons for a leader to succeed, she – or he – must be capable of, and be seen to be working for, all Australians. He believes neither Dutton nor Price has shown they can do that.

    Going down in history as two of the people most responsible for destroying a referendum which Wyatt is convinced would help Indigenous people is no qualification for national leadership in Wyatt’s view.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-miserable-fact-of-the-voice-we-were-always-destined-to-get-to-this-point-20231011-p5ebcs.html

  8. Crazy USA: Sam Bankman-Fried aspired to one day become president of the United States, his ex-girlfriend and former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison testified in court Tuesday.
    “He said there was a 5% chance he might be president someday,” Ellison said on the witness stand in the criminal trial against the disgraced crypto mogul.
    In her testimony in a downtown Manhattan federal courtroom, the 28-year-old Ellison said Bankman-Fried shared his ambitions with her during their relationship, which moved in fits and starts over the course of about three years. Bankman-Fried sought to become a significant player in the worlds of business and politics, she said.
    The former CEO of FTX’s sister company first took to the witness stand earlier on Tuesday. She told jurors in the criminal trial against Bankman-Fried that she conspired with Bankman-Fried and other members of his inner circle to defraud customers and investors of FTX, his cryptocurrency exchange.

  9. This should be hung like an albatross around the neck of every ‘No’ campaigner:

    In the post-mortems which will inevitably continue for decades, we can and we will blame No campaigners for playing filthy dirty, for putting politics above everything else, for using loudhailers to whistle up the neo-Nazis, racists and bigots with lies and misrepresentations.

  10. California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is keeping the pressure on Ron DeSantis, blasting the Florida Republican Governor for struggling to say Republicans should not be dining with Holocaust deniers. “A very simple question — should Republicans dine with a holocaust denier?” Gov. Newsom asked on social media, posting video of DeSantis speaking with CNN earlier Wednesday. “It takes Ron DeSantis 4 questions, 3 attempts at a pivot, and over a minute to give an even semi-coherent answer,” he observed. “Listen for yourself…” DeSantis was being asked about Nick Fuentes, a Christian nationalist and self-avowed white supremacist and antisemite. According to the Anti-Defamation League(ADL), “Nicholas Fuentes is a white supremacist leader, organizer and podcaster who seeks to forge a white nationalist alternative to the mainstream GOP.

  11. And for all those pusillanimous posters trying to blame the Prime Minister for this referendum, Niki Savva has you bang to rights:

    This is a defining moment for Australia. Almost every other country on earth has reached an accommodation with its original inhabitants. We should at least be honest enough to admit that if we don’t, this debate will have simply exposed what lurks just beneath the surface. Blaming Albanese for that is bizarre. Ultimately, responsibility for the result and everything which delivers it resides with us.

  12. Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) are among the at least half dozen Republicans who have committed to not voting for Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) in Speaker of the House votes this week, despite a secret ballot process which saw the Majority Leader nominated as the caucus’ choice. The pair committed their votes instead to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Scalise’s opponent in the caucus vote. “I just voted for Jim Jordan for Speaker on a private ballot in conference, and I will be voting for Jim Jordan on the House floor,” Greene said on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday. “I like Steve Scalise, and I like him so much that I want to see him defeat cancer more than sacrifice his health in the most difficult position in Congress.” Scalise announced that he has a form of blood cancer in late August and is undergoing treatment. He described the cancer as “very treatable” and has continued to work. “I lost my father to cancer and it’s a very serious battle,” Greene continued. “We need a Speaker who is able to put their full efforts into defeating the communist democrats and save America.”
    Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), Michael Cloud (R-Texas) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) have also announced that they will not back Scalise

  13. An Indigenous elder says he was turned away from voting for the Voice to Parliament because he was wearing a Yes campaign shirt. Yagara and Bundjalung elder, Uncle Valentine Brown, attended the Winston Glades polling station near Ipswich, west of Brisbane, on Tuesday. The 73-year-old said when he entered the polling station, official workers told him he wasn’t allowed to vote while wearing a Yes shirt, but did not give him an explanation as to why.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-12/polling-booth-clothing-confusion-voice-referendum-voting/102964108

  14. There will be a moratorium henceforth on discussion of the situation in the Middle East……
    ——————————
    Dr Alban sings hallelujah.

  15. C@t ”Nope. It’s from Niki Savva’s piece this week.”

    Fair enough. I entered “we can and we will blame No campaigners for playing filthy dirty” into Google in an incognito window, which briefly brought up the SMH Editorial before it disappeared behind the “subscriber only” wall.

    Not that it matters, it had to be said. I hope it’s true, but I fear that the Coalition and “No” voters will mostly just think “we won” and never think of Reconciliation again.

    P.S. I don’t think using an incognito window to look at SMH articles will work for much longer.

  16. Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil has just appeared on ABC News Breakfast and said the government anticipates that more (repatriation) flights will be needed over the coming weeks and months.

    Staying with that interview for a moment, and the home affairs minister was asked what should happen on Sunday given organisers of a pro-Palestine rally say they’re going ahead with a second march, despite not having police authorisation.

    Here was Clare O’Neil’s response:

    I’m going to let police deal with the literal, physical occurrence of these rallies, and they’ll act on security advice. I would just say that I would ask people not to attend these rallies and just really consider what you say and do at a time like this. [It] affects people who are really in pain and seriously hurting.

    This is not about politics, it’s not about your views on Palestine and Israel. What has happened here is a terrorist organisation has indiscriminately attacked and killed innocent men, women and children. There’s no ifs or buts about this. We should be able to, as one country, outwardly and clearly condemn an act of violence.

    It was then put to O’Neil that Palestinians say they are also hurting, and have hurt for years.

    This is what the home affairs minister said:

    There is no question that Palestinians will be affected by the actions here. And I say, again, Hamas have committed a disgraceful atrocity against the Israeli people. This atrocity will cause violence against Palestinians. So, this is just violence begetting violence.

    No one wins, no one moves forward. And the grand issues around the Middle East, around the seeking of a two-state solution, around peace in that region – which is what the vast majority of people living there want – is not being progressed in any way, shape or form by what has happened here.

    I just say, again to Australians, just consider how your actions affect your neighbours and your friends around this country. We’re a beautiful, peaceful, multicultural country. Surely at a moment like this, we should all be thinking about how we preserve this precious thing for our nation.

    (9Fax)

  17. so at least jim jordan is not speaker wonder what the point of removing mcarthy Scalise is aparently mnore conservative but he was mccarthys long time deputy

  18. Steve777says:
    Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 7:29 am
    Who is “Dr Alban”? The Swedish musician? A nickname for the PM?
    ==================================================
    The Swedish Musician. That song peaked at No.5 on the ARIA charts, April 1994.
    Just to completely change the tone of discussion from last night. Have a nice day all.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The demons unleashed by tactics to foment conflict, for short term political gain at the expense of vulnerable Australians, will live on long after Saturday’s vote, writes an incandescent Niki Savva. Read it!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-miserable-fact-of-the-voice-we-were-always-destined-to-get-to-this-point-20231011-p5ebcs.html
    Amy Remeikis and Josh Butler factcheck the seven biggest pieces of misinformation pushed by the No side.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/12/indigenous-voice-to-parliament-referendum-misinformation-fact-checked
    Australians will be evacuated from Israel on emergency flights amid a political brawl over the federal response to the crisis in the Middle East, with Peter Dutton urging the government to act against Palestinian protesters and offer munitions to Israel, report David Crowe and Paul Sakkal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-to-evacuate-israel-on-qantas-flights-as-dutton-attacks-albanese-over-response-20231011-p5ebil.html
    When Peter Dutton claims Labor isn’t horrified enough about Hamas, it doesn’t help anyone, declares Paul Karp who says the opposition’s weaponisation of the most minute points of difference between the Coalition and Labor on the situation in Gaza – and at times its outright falsehoods – are sure signs that US-style extreme political polarisation is now a feature of Australian politics.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/11/peter-dutton-labor-albanese-israel-hamas-war-response
    For years, Labor has been walking on eggshells when it comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict, writes Phillip Coorey who says that all week the language has varied.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/moral-clarity-needs-to-transcend-base-politics-20231011-p5ebc9
    Iranian and Hamas’ perceptions of Israel as weak, vulnerable and divided were almost certainly encouraged by thousands of reservists refusing to report for voluntary duty in protest at the judicial reform proposals, writes Tzvi Fleischer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/how-israel-s-internal-divisions-helped-spark-the-bloody-hamas-massacre-20231005-p5ea1k.html
    Here’s Peta Credlin’s weekly dose of diatribe. Read it if you must.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/if-this-week-has-taught-us-anything-it-is-theres-no-place-for-racial-division-in-australia/news-story/bd54dc3e88b1f026b61a62da566388eb?amp
    The decision by NSW Premier Chris Minns to seek to limit a pro-Palestinian rally in Sydney planned for this weekend raises important human rights issues, namely the right to freedom of assembly and to freedom of speech. More broadly, governments need to be very cautious in seeking to curtail or ban protests. It is preferable to use existing laws to prosecute those who attend and incite racial hatred or who demonstrably use a protest to support terrorist organisations such as Hamas in this case, writes Greg Barns SC.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minns-bid-to-block-protest-could-be-costly-for-free-speech-20231011-p5ebgb.html
    The Age tells us that the strain and worry of the past week is clear in Melbourne’s Jewish heartland. Some are grieving, some are seeking to protect their community, while others are preparing to fight.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/i-m-jewish-but-i-am-scared-to-show-it-melbourne-s-jews-respond-to-israel-attacks-20231010-p5eb52.html
    The delicate art of giving to charity is based on trust. A not-for-profit charitable organisation supporting NSW’s 70,000 volunteer firefighters is in danger of losing it says the editorial in the SMH. It says that we will only be generous to charities we can trust.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/we-will-only-be-generous-to-charities-we-can-trust-20231011-p5ebf6.html
    Cheng Lei, the Australian journalist detained on national security charges by China, has returned to Australia, ending a three-year ordeal that put her at the centre of a bitter diplomatic dispute between Canberra and Beijing. All done without media fanfare while it was happening.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-journalist-cheng-lei-returns-from-detention-in-china-20231011-p5ebjh.html
    The release and repatriation of Cheng Lei is a magnificent shaft of sunlight in a week of madness and gathering darkness, says Greg Sheridan.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/cheng-lei-release-a-shaft-of-sunlight-in-a-week-of-madness/news-story/35571d01f392d924b68e0912928979c9?amp
    Eryk Bagshaw describes Cheng Lei’s release as a remarkable feat of diplomacy. Ge writes, “Albanese will be able to say that two of his major goals have been achieved: China’s trade sanctions have been mostly lifted, and Cheng Lei has been released from jail. He has one more goal: Yang, the Australian writer and father, remains behind bars and his health is deteriorating.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/cheng-lei-s-release-is-a-remarkable-feat-of-diplomacy-20231011-p5ebkj.html
    The IMF sees bleaker economic times ahead for Australia, but the picture’s not all bad, argues Greg Jericho wh lays out a lot of data.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2023/oct/12/imf-sees-bleaker-economic-times-ahead-for-australia-but-the-pictures-not-all-bad
    The NSW government’s Landcom has sold a hectare of prime bushland in Sydney for just $41k to shopping centre developers but has declined to respond to questions about the number of people at the auction. Callum Foote reports.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/did-you-miss-the-auction-shucks-government-sells-a-hectare-of-sydney-for-just-41k/
    The sparkies union has called on the Albanese government to help stop federal contractor Downer from outsourcing jobs, claiming the government allowing such actions is directly at odds with its crackdown on labour hire exploitation, reports the AFR’s David Marin-Guzman.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/labour-hire-loopholes-shamelessly-exploited-union-20231011-p5ebda
    Alan Kohler posits that the absence of strikes in Australia is not healthy.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/work/2023/10/12/alan-kohler-australia-strikes/
    Flood mapping for Melbourne’s inner-western suburbs was so outdated that it was irrelevant when more than 500 homes were inundated last year, and resulted in “substantially dangerous” warnings for the 1000 residents ultimately evacuated, a parliamentary inquiry has heard. Rachael Eddie reports that on a day when Melbourne Water managing director Nerina Di Lorenzo was asked why she still had a job at the authority after its role in the October 2022 floods, three councils in the Maribyrnong catchment gave evidence that outdated flood maps hampered the emergency response.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/substantially-dangerous-melbourne-water-boss-grilled-over-maribyrnong-flood-20231011-p5ebb3.html
    Matthew Elmas explains how the government’s payday super reforms will help millions of workers.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2023/10/09/superannuation-pay-day/
    Elizabeth Knight tells us why Qantas chairman Richard Goyder, who she described as “excess baggage” had to go. She declares that the board was certainly the culprit that allowed Alan Joyce to sell 80 per cent of his Qantas shares in June.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/oversized-baggage-why-the-qantas-chairman-had-to-go-20231011-p5ebgh.html
    The head of a parliamentary inquiry into the nation’s $7 billion employment services system has backed the creation of an independent watchdog to help protect jobless Australians, declaring full privatisation of the sector has failed. Labor MP Julian Hill, who is chairing the inquiry into Workforce Australia and the network of private employment service providers that operate under it, said a fresh approach was needed to help people into jobs, signalling more government intervention.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/private-employment-services-have-failed-watchdog-is-needed-inquiry-head-20231011-p5eben.html
    More than one million Australian households will be powered by one of the world’s largest battery systems after the government approved a new renewable energy hub. The battery will be located in Melbourne suburb of Plumpton, where it will store wind, hydro and solar energy from regional Victoria.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8381910/asias-biggest-battery-will-power-australian-homes/?cs=27845
    Increased government funding has boosted the minutes of care for nursing home residents but has failed to improve the sector’s financial position, with two in three homes operating at a loss. Residential aged-care providers lost more than $1bn last financial year, their sixth consecutive year of aggregate losses, leaving homes vulnerable to closure or reduced care capacity, especially in the regions, a new report finds. The analysis by leading aged-care accountants StewartBrown reveals nursing homes recorded average losses of $16.54 per bed per day in FY23, up from $14.67 per bed day loss the year before. (I’ve gotta tell you, it’s a hard gig!)
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/agedcare-minutes-up-but-profit-a-struggle/news-story/67e56fb6ff2bc20d94145f142b130c3e?amp
    Mark Latham has launched an incendiary attack on Pauline Hanson and her chief of staff James Ashby, using parliamentary privilege to accuse the pair of “laundering taxpayer funding” for their own financial gain. Max Maddison reports that the second barrage against his former employer came just two months after Latham wrote to Special Minister of State John Graham accusing Hanson and Ashby of attempting to defraud the NSW One Nation’s electoral funds.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/latham-alleges-hanson-and-chief-of-staff-laundered-taxpayer-funds-20231011-p5ebi9.html
    Scott Morrison has called for Australia to deepen its relationship with Taiwan by overhauling its long-standing “One China” policy and allowing the self-governing territory to participate in key international forums such as the Quadrilateral security dialogue. Helpful as usual!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/morrison-calls-for-one-china-policy-overhaul-in-taiwan-speech-20231011-p5ebic.html
    Standing ovations all round as Labour conference wraps up and many luxuriate in the feeling of a party poised to take power, writes John Crace.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/11/a-victory-lap-for-starmer-now-officially-a-member-of-the-glitterati
    Donald Trump has been dealt a blow after the hard-right ally he endorsed to become the new speaker of the US House Representatives was rejected in favour of his opponent. Farrah Tomazin tells us that one week after Kevin McCarthy was ousted by a small group of party rebels, Republicans took part in a secret ballot yesterday to nominate Steve Scalise as his replacement in the hope of breaking the paralysis in Congress. But it’s not done and dusted by any means.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/divided-republicans-nominate-new-speaker-of-the-house-20231012-p5ebm7.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Andrew Dyson

    Matt Golding



    Mark David

    A vintage Cathy Wilcox

    John Shakespeare

    Dionne Gain

    Mark Knight

    Spooner

    From the US





















  20. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 7:07 am
    This should be hung like an albatross around the neck of every ‘No’ campaigner:

    In the post-mortems which will inevitably continue for decades, we can and we will blame No campaigners for playing filthy dirty, for putting politics above everything else, for using loudhailers to whistle up the neo-Nazis, racists and bigots with lies and misrepresentations.

    All PB posters, who are voting No, vigorously protested that that is not the case when it was pointed by Yes voters.

    So did the SMH got it wrong No voters?
    Judgement Day is upon us.


  21. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 7:15 am
    And for all those pusillanimous posters trying to blame the Prime Minister for this referendum, Niki Savva has you bang to rights:

    This is a defining moment for Australia. Almost every other country on earth has reached an accommodation with its original inhabitants. We should at least be honest enough to admit that if we don’t, this debate will have simply exposed what lurks just beneath the surface. Blaming Albanese for that is bizarre. Ultimately, responsibility for the result and everything which delivers it resides with us.

    +1
    Make absolutely no mistake about that.
    Judgement Day is upon us.

  22. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 5:49 am

    One for BW
    Finally one of the adults in the room recognises two Chinas

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/morrison-calls-for-one-china-policy-overhaul-in-taiwan-speech-20231011-p5ebic.html

    Now all we need is to get the Taiwanese to agree’
    ————————————–
    Thank you. The Taiwanese have a dragon by the tail. They know that they will never conquer the mainland so the only prospect of a unified China is one ruled by Xi and the Chicommies.

    The Taiwanese majority is perfectly clear about not wanting to be ruled by Xi. But the nanosecond the Taiwanese announce that the Chicommies are a pack of draconian inhumane anti-democratic bastards and that Taiwan is independent is the nanosecond they will force Xi to invade.

    Xi has his own dilemma. He will only launch a military assault on Taiwan that he knows for sure he can win. A military loss there would be a catastrophic failure for his leadership and for the legitimacy of the Chicommies.

    So, with a bit more delicacy than that in the middle east, the pas de deux continues with Xi doing the usual mix of military threats, military incursions, threats that certain Taiwanese and their families will get the treatment when Taiwan is unified, economic bastardy by way of sudden bans on Taiwanese exports to China, all combined with blandishments about the wonderful benefits of Watermelon’s paradise on earth. (Watermelon will call you very bad words if you upset him so it is important to get Xi’s paradise on earth exactly right.)

    Xi is doing everything he can to modernize the PLA. The PLAN is in the process of the biggest naval build up in world peace time history, with twin emphases on blue water and amphibious capacities. Technology developments in missilery, air capability and the like are slowly but surely tilting the balance towards a successful invasion.

    Naturally the infowars element of the grey war is ever present.

  23. C@tmomma @ #9 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 7:07 am

    This should be hung like an albatross around the neck of every ‘No’ campaigner

    In the event of the No vote getting up, then the Albotross will be hung around the neck of Labor, who have spent the last few months slowly sidling away from their unambiguous pre-election commitment to implement the Uluru Statement in full.

    I don’t know where we go in the event of such an ignominious failure. But I don’t think this particular government will be the one to take us there. We’ll have to wait for one with a bit more gumption.

  24. Steve Scalise is short of the 217 votes required to win the Speaker election, several Republican sources told CNN.

    According to one of the sources, there is broad skepticism towards Scalise as a result of an overall lack of trust throughout the GOP leadership.

    Scalise is reported to be meeting individually with Republicans in attempts to convince them to support him on the House floor.

  25. Player One

    ” In the event of the No vote getting up, then the Albotross will be hung around the neck of Labor, who have spent the last few months slowly sidling away from their unambiguous pre-election commitment to implement the Uluru Statement in full.”

    That is a ridiculous statement. While Labor might be open to criticism for some aspects of the “Yes” campaign, we hang the albatrosses where they before, around the necks of the drivers of the lies, the dogwhistling and the promotion of fear, ignorance and confusion that characterised the “No” campaign.

    I’m calling it. You are trolling for the Liberals,

  26. Aaron newton says:
    Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 7:43 am
    so at least jim jordan is not speaker wonder what the point of removing mcarthy Scalise is aparently mnore conservative but he was mccarthys long time deputy
    ========================================================
    Aaron – I think the game plan of the U.S. far right is to sabotage the election of the new speaker, or at least delay and ramp up pressure on both the President and Democrats. I suspect the Right’s goal is to cut funding to Ukraine and build a wall, and until there is a new speaker no legislation can be enacted. The President requires funding legislation on his desk by Nov.17 (3PM Nov 18, Canberra time), so with the clock ticking, there will be one of three outcomes.
    1. The moderate Republicans will be forced to unite with the far right Republicans to elect a candidate of Matt Gaetz’s choosing (assuming Gaetz, Boebert et al will continue to sabotage in the meantime), or
    2. The Democrats will be forced to “help” elect a moderate Republican to the Speakership, or
    3. The Moderate Republicans will side with the Democrats and elect Hakeem Jeffries.

    I can’t see Option 2, as the Democrats just got rid of the “so called moderate” McCarthy, so it will be Option 1 or 3. Just remember, the clock is ticking on funding and Mr Biden needs his legislation otherwise Ukraine will be in a lot more strife. If Option 3 comes to pass, then those Republicans voting for a Democrat run the risk of being “primaried” out next year. It’s a toxic mess, but unfortunately people elect extreme people to parliament and this is the inevitable outcome.

  27. It seems I need to repost Niki Savva’s commentary for the benefit of those bad-faith actors like Lars Von Trier and Player One, who have started the day trying to blame the PM, when it is they who deserve to wear the blame.

    And for all those pusillanimous posters trying to blame the Prime Minister for this referendum, Niki Savva has you bang to rights:

    This is a defining moment for Australia. Almost every other country on earth has reached an accommodation with its original inhabitants. We should at least be honest enough to admit that if we don’t, this debate will have simply exposed what lurks just beneath the surface. Blaming Albanese for that is bizarre. Ultimately, responsibility for the result and everything which delivers it resides with us.

  28. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Thanks to to William for blocking incessant cover of the mid east conflict, which is depressing.

    Dutton has certainly gone the full metal jacket potato in suggesting we send zisrael arms and ammunition. What for? Israel not only has a large, well equipped army, but is also extremely self sufficient in making and supporting weapons. It is an absurd remark, that highlights his total lack of positive domestic policy.

    Morrison too, is no better. Going to Taiwan now and making statements inconsistent with Australia’s long standing bipartisan policy on how to refer to Taiwan’s relationship with China only risks inflaming Australia- China relations. What does he hope to achieve? Getting Albo’s meeting with Xi cancelled?


  29. When Peter Dutton claims Labor isn’t horrified enough about Hamas, it doesn’t help anyone, declares Paul Karp who says the opposition’s weaponisation of the most minute points of difference between the Coalition and Labor on the situation in Gaza – and at times its outright falsehoods – are sure signs that US-style extreme political polarisation is now a feature of Australian politics.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/11/peter-dutton-labor-albanese-israel-hamas-war-response

    To ‘Progressive”No’voters
    I don’t care for what reason you are voting ‘No’
    Please note that by voting ‘Yes’ you can stop
    “opposition’s weaponisation of the most minute points of difference between the Coalition and Labor on the situation in Gaza – and at times its outright falsehoods – are sure signs that US-style extreme political polarisation is now a feature of Australian politics.”

  30. nadia88,
    You are factually incorrect to say that Matt Gaetz is aligned with Marjorie Taylor-Greene and Lauren Boebert on the Speaker vote. The facts are that Matt Gaetz has voted for Steve Scalise and Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor-Greene have voted for Jim Jordan.

  31. Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham:
    #ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 39 (=) L-NP 32 (+4) GRN 12 (-1) IND 10 (-3) others 7 (=)
    My 2PP estimate 57.5 (-2.5)
    Preferred Premier Allan leads Pesutto 38-19 (cf Andrews led 41-32).

  32. William Bowe @ #1 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 6:39 am

    There will be a moratorium henceforth on discussion of the situation in the Middle East, except insofar as it relates directly to Australian politics.

    There are new posts on a Victorian poll here and the Indigenous Voice here — a promised post on the New Zealand election will appear later today.

    Just putting this above the Dawn Patrol for those who may not have seen it.

  33. ‘Socrates says:
    Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 8:37 am

    Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Thanks to to William for blocking incessant cover of the mid east conflict, which is depressing.

    Dutton has certainly gone the full metal jacket potato in suggesting we send zisrael arms and ammunition. What for? Israel not only has a large, well equipped army, but is also extremely self sufficient in making and supporting weapons. It is an absurd remark, that highlights his total lack of positive domestic policy.’
    ————————-
    Dutton is lying about the middle east so it is best not to take him too seriously.
    The reality? We need some of Israel’s weaponry. Not the other way around.

  34. Cat, I wouldn’t believe anything which comes out of Gaetz’s mouth until he actually votes. We will see how this plays out over the next 5 weeks.

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