The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll gets a rare guernsey as a dedicated Poll Bludger post due to the need to keep an open thread somewhere near the top of the page, between the latest Indigenous Voice post and a forthcoming look at Saturday’s election in New Zealand. Labor leads 53-47 on the latest numbers, out from 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up half), Coalition 34% (down three-and-a-half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). The disparity between the movements on the former and latter measures suggest Labor got a weak respondent-allocated preference flow this time around – previous election preferences would have it at more like 54-46.
UPDATE: It appears YouGov federal polling will be a weekly event. As well as Indigenous Voice numbers featured in the relevant post, it latest numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation on 6%. Anthony Albanese’s net approval is at steady at minus 3%, while Peter Dutton has improved from minus 17% to minus 12%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Albanese’s lead shifting from 50-33 to 50-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519.
nadia88 @ #49 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 8:46 am
The facts are the facts. That’s how he’s voted thus far.
“You know the rules—the first person to buzz in with an uninformed opinion wins.”
(I just got a subscription to The New Yorker and this was their daily cartoon for today)
” Morrison too, is no better. Going to Taiwan now and making statements inconsistent with Australia’s long standing bipartisan policy on how to refer to Taiwan’s relationship with China only risks inflaming Australia- China relations. What does he hope to achieve? Getting Albo’s meeting with Xi cancelled?”
Fortunately, Scott Morrison is now just a backbench Opposition MP and private citizen. He can say whatever crap he likes, he speaks only on behalf of himself.
”
The decision by NSW Premier Chris Minns to seek to limit a pro-Palestinian rally in Sydney planned for this weekend raises important human rights issues, namely the right to freedom of assembly and to freedom of speech. More broadly, governments need to be very cautious in seeking to curtail or ban protests. It is preferable to use existing laws to prosecute those who attend and incite racial hatred or who demonstrably use a protest to support terrorist organisations such as Hamas in this case, writes Greg Barns SC.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minns-bid-to-block-protest-could-be-costly-for-free-speech-20231011-p5ebgb.html
”
I asked some questions yesterday and Greg Barnes seems to provide the answers.
Steve777 @ #53 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 8:50 am
He is obviously still possessed of delusions of grandeur. The real question is, will Peter Dutton condemn his freelancing?
Justice, Chicommie style:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1299642.shtml
My guess is that Morrison does the Taiwan thing because: it assuages his relevance deprivation and because someone is paying him to travel and to make a speech.
A significance marker will be whether he rates a mention in the Global Times.
Zero notice, thus far.
Obviously the Democrats sitting with their 212 votes are king maker – should they choose to save Scalise’s speakership.
”
The IMF sees bleaker economic times ahead for Australia, but the picture’s not all bad, argues Greg Jericho wh lays out a lot of data.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2023/oct/12/imf-sees-bleaker-economic-times-ahead-for-australia-but-the-pictures-not-all-bad
”
Greg Jericho gives a back hander to India’s economy. He says as per IMF India’s economy will be fastest economy in the world this year and next year with 6% (actually 6.3%), which is no biggie according to him. He says India’s economy will be third largest economy by the end of the decade, which is no biggie because it will be small when compared to economies of USA and China.
He says economies of China, Japan and South Korea are the actual biggies.
It appears Greg Jericho thinks India must be fluking it. India pffft.
Steve777 says:
Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 8:34 am
Player One
” In the event of the No vote getting up, then the Albotross will be hung around the neck of Labor, who have spent the last few months slowly sidling away from their unambiguous pre-election commitment to implement the Uluru Statement in full.”
That is a ridiculous statement. While Labor might be open to criticism for some aspects of the “Yes” campaign, we hang the albatrosses where they before, around the necks of the drivers of the lies, the dogwhistling and the promotion of fear, ignorance and confusion that characterised the “No” campaign.
I’m calling it. You are trolling for the Liberals,
___________
I do not think so. I detect a consistent anti-Labor rather than pro-LNP attitude. Consistent with a few posters here that otherwise hold varying degrees of progressive values. While no political party is perfect, some have a cognitive bias for or against.
“You don’t know the power of the Dark side” 😉
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 8:37 am
It seems I need to repost Niki Savva’s …….
_____________________
Nikki Savva is just another opinion writer trying to earn a living like all the others.
I don’t know why you are putting her up on a pedestal.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 8:48 am
….The facts are the facts. That’s how he’s voted thus far.
=========================================================
Correct, but that is the internal vote within the Republican caucus. We will see how it pans out when the vote goes to the floor.
It is good to see the Guardian outing the main No lies doing the rounds.
Dutton has been prominent on spreading some of the lies.
He is silent on some of the lies.
Cat
“ He is obviously still possessed of delusions of grandeur. The real question is, will Peter Dutton condemn his freelancing?”
That would be a good question for Albo or Penny Wong to ask Dutton? We still have not secured the release of Yang Henjung. Is Scomo happy to jeopardize that? Looks like it.
Savva is that rarest of rare creatures: a Liberal who tells the truth.
Cue: Taylormade frets about Savva.
Steve777 @ #38 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 8:34 am
I realize it is difficult for some here to accept, but criticizing Labor does not automatically make one a Liberal supporter. There is blame enough for all sides on this issue.
Labor partisans will do their best to lay the blame as broadly and as far afield as possible, but Labor was in the driver’s seat on this. They made the promises, they chose the timing, they determined the detail, and they ran the campaign (which by any standards was a remarkably underwhelming one). If – as now seems very likely – the referendum does not pass, then it will be largely because Labor seriously mismanaged all of these, as well as apparently misreading the likely attitude of both the the COALition and the electorate.
Socrates @ #64 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 9:08 am
Did he ever really care about the release of either of them when he was Prime Minister? I think pretty obviously the answer is ‘No’. The release of Cheng Lei is also something the Chinese community in Australia will note. So I think that Peter Dutton’s hopes of getting their votes back next election have now receded further into the distance as a result of Labor’s successful diplomacy.
Q: Nikki Savva is just another opinion writer trying to earn a living like all the others.
So all writers are just equal? One cannot be heads and shoulders above the others in insight, knowledge, experience and talent?
Talk about same:same.
UK Cartoons:
Hilarious Nikki savva is now the paragon of journalistic writing.
Isn’t this the same journalist who Keating described as “that savva b.tch” and went onto be Costello’s press secretary ?
#weatheronPB
A bright blue welcome,
draws me into the chorus,
of the happy birds.
Also, to P1s and Lars of this blog and outside
From today’s Niki Savva article in SMH:
He (Ken Wyatt) accepts Anthony Albanese would have no mandate to legislate a Voice but pledged he and fellow Yes warriors would not give up fighting for better ways to address Indigenous disadvantage.
Sadly, western media is only interested in the opinions of the ‘blowhards’.
“Dan Cohen@dancohen3000
I spent 7 months living in Gaza and filming a feature-length documentary on the 2014 war and the aftermath. I spent 3 years in both Israeli and Palestinian societies. I’ve been under Palestinian rockets and Israeli bombs. I’ve even been used as a human shield by Israeli soldiers.
None of the blowhard armchair Zionist pundits – @jordanbpeterson, @charliekirk11, @benshapiro
or @bariweiss – could hold their ground in a debate with me. They’d be exposed as the pseudo-intellectual frauds they are.
I dare them to have me on and find out.”
Q: Isn’t this the same journalist who Keating described as “that savva b.tch” and went onto be Costello’s press secretary ?
So- she felt the ire of Keating and had a career?
Meanwhile on ABC Breakfast Lydia Thorpe descends into madness:
“Lidia Thorpe has backed legislating a voice to parliament if the referendum is defeated.
Asked earlier by Patricia Karvelas on RN Breakfast if Thorpe thinks it should be legislated, Thorpe responds:
Absolutely, why not?”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/oct/12/australia-news-live-julian-leeser-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-gaza-israel-protests-rally-palestine
So Thorpe wants the Voice? She says it should be legislated by parliament, but NOT in the Constitution??
She wants the Voice so badly that we ought to have the version that can be chucked out by any future government…
Thorpe is just a cynical reactionary who has used No to advance her political profile. A bit like Dutton.
C@tmomma @ #7 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 7:04 am
But she is very clearly playing for a senior role in any future LNP government. As a senator that’d be limited to certain roles. Health? Education?
Sohar
Let me be the first to point out the statement by the blog owner at the first comment:
“William Bowe says:
Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 6:39 am
There will be a moratorium henceforth on discussion of the situation in the Middle East, except insofar as it relates directly to Australian politics.”
Any genuinely progressive voter will logically be anti Labor/LNP.
If, as seems likely, the Voice is defeated, Labor will need to progress the Reconciliation project and Closing the Gap by other means, which will include consultation with First Nations communities. Lack of a “Voice” will impede these efforts, but whatever its merits, legislating what the voters have just rejected won’t do it.
Raining in Melbourne at the moment. Hopefully not too much gets up in the Goulburn catchment as Lake Eildon is 100% full, so any significant rain will cause flooding in Goulburn Valley.
Equally, the Campaspe river which runs through Rochester which flood last year badly might flood as Lake Eppalock is at 97%. And the Thompson which was flooding last week is full as well.
Well, that is a new take: Thorpe as a ‘reactionary’.
That said, in more of his casual lack of integrity, Dutton has promised to legislate a Voice.
So Thorpe and Dutton are, once again, on the same public page.
‘B.S. Fairman says:
Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 9:34 am
Raining in Melbourne at the moment. Hopefully not too much gets up in the Goulburn catchment as Lake Eildon is 100% full, so any significant rain will cause flooding in Goulburn Valley.
….’
Our bottom paddocks are dry again. So all, good. We can but live in the moment.
”Wyatt dismissed the fevered commentary about Jacinta Nampijinpa Price becoming prime minister. He reckons for a leader to succeed, she – or he – must be capable of, and be seen to be working for, all Australians. He believes neither Dutton nor Price has shown they can do that.”
Tony Abbott didn’t show that either. He still succeed – for a little while.
Ven @ #72 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 9:18 am
So Albo has no mandate to proceed but others would? Certainly Albo seems to agree with this. But I don’t – while I agree a legislated Voice would be a second best option, by ruling it out Albo is yet again mismanaging the mandate he clearly does have to progress the Voice.
But all is not lost – there is Truth and Treaty still to go. They are not (not at this point anyway) constitutional issues, and don’t require a referendum to progress.
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 8:39 am
nadia88,
You are factually incorrect to say that Matt Gaetz is aligned with Marjorie Taylor-Greene and Lauren Boebert on the Speaker vote. The facts are that Matt Gaetz has voted for Steve Scalise and Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor-Greene have voted for Jim Jordan
”
And Gaetz said he will vote for Scalise in the HOR vote for speaker.
Is there a chance the referendum swings to yes on the day of voting.
And could the atrocious going ons in the Middle East be the catalyst for a change of heart?
The dems only need to swing a few sane republicans to vote for Hakeem Jefferies.
Good to see the massive battery going up in Victoria.
It is the sort of thing we can expect as a result of Labor governments.
The Greens block. The Coalition wrecks. Labor builds.
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 8:52 am
Steve777 @ #53 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 8:50 am
” Morrison too, is no better. Going to Taiwan now and making statements inconsistent with Australia’s long standing bipartisan policy on how to refer to Taiwan’s relationship with China only risks inflaming Australia- China relations. What does he hope to achieve? Getting Albo’s meeting with Xi cancelled?”
Fortunately, Scott Morrison is now just a backbench Opposition MP and private citizen. He can say whatever crap he likes, he speaks only on behalf of himself.
He is obviously still possessed of delusions of grandeur. The real question is, will Peter Dutton condemn his freelancing?
”
NO! 🙂
Victoria @ #86 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 9:38 am
I do think there is still a chance. But it has little or nothing to do with the Middle East. It probably has more to do with the weather on polling day. Lots of either heat or rain might be enough to keep the crusties indoors. Whoever thought we might be grateful for climate extremes? 🙂
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 9:16 am
Hilarious Nikki savva is now the paragon of journalistic writing.
Isn’t this the same journalist who Keating described as “that savva b.tch” and went onto be Costello’s press secretary ?
”
IPA Lars?
The Crown constitution is a colonial occupation document.
I assume Senator Thorpe doesn’t see a Sovereign FN representation enshrined in this document as appropriate given FN sovereignty has never been ceded.
I assume Senator Thorpe sees a legislated Voice as a temporary and non-binding measure that allows the furtherance of treaty and lasting peace between the two Sovereign bodies.
I could be wrong though.
What’s up with twitter?
All good . Twitters back. Some sort of glitch.
Rex Douglas @ #92 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 9:48 am
I was going to make similar points. I’m glad you did, though – it means you have called down the PB lightning, and I can nimbly step aside! 🙂
Nikki Savva is a member of an increasingly rare species, a liberal Liberal. So, for example, is Peter Van Onselen. Their work has mostly disappeared behind paywalls so I just catch bits of what they have to say these days, e.g. on Insiders. They say some stuff I agree with, other stuff I don’t.
”
Soharsays:
Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 9:22 am
Sadly, western media is only interested in the opinions of the ‘blowhards’.
“Dan Cohen@dancohen3000
I spent 7 months living in Gaza and filming a feature-length documentary on the 2014 war and the aftermath. I spent 3 years in both Israeli and Palestinian societies. I’ve been under Palestinian rockets and Israeli bombs. I’ve even been used as a human shield by Israeli soldiers.
None of the blowhard armchair Zionist pundits – @jordanbpeterson, @charliekirk11, @benshapiro
or @bariweiss – could hold their ground in a debate with me. They’d be exposed as the pseudo-intellectual frauds they are.
I dare them to have me on and find out.”
”
Of course they do. That gets them TV ratings and clicks on websites.
Victoria @ #93 Thursday, October 12th, 2023 – 9:49 am
Where to start … !
A constitution-based Voice is bad but a Voice legislated by a constitution-based parliament of invaders to whom sovereignty has not been granted is, like, ‘Why not?’
Intellectual grunt? Yeah, nah.
I guess Melbourne town is making up for the lack of rain over the last few months.
It’s bucketing down.