Nine Newspapers have published the latest federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic, which offer no indication that declining support for the Indigenous Voice has damaged the Labor government. Labor is credited with 37% of the primary vote, up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three to 31%. The Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are up two to 7%. The pollster does not provide two-party results, but based on previous election preference flows, this comes out at around 57-43. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up four to 44%, and his combined very poor and poor rating is down four to 43%. Peter Dutton is respectively down five to 30% and up two to 45%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 47-25, out from 43-28.
The voting intention numbers are from the same juiced-up sample of 4728 and extended field work period of September 22 to October 4 that produced yesterday’s Indigenous Voice result of 56-44 in favour of no, which reflected the voting intention in being more favourable to the government than the tenor of polling elsewhere. I might have hoped this would have meant more comprehensive state breakdowns than usual, but there is no sign of that to this point, with only the usual results for the three largest states provided on the Resolve Monitor display.
The sample for the leaders’ ratings was only 1604, which presumably relates to the 3116 sample size for separately published follow-up results today on the Indigenous Voice – evidently respondents were asked one set of questions or the other. Among many other things, the Indigenous Voice results offer the finding that 38% of respondents considered that colonisation had had a positive impact on Indigenous people compared with only 23% for negative and 41% for mixed or unsure.
The usual practice for Resolve Strategic is to follow up its national poll later in the week with state results for New South Wales or Victoria, alternating between the two with samples that combine results from two of the monthly polls. This month was due to be the turn of Victoria, but given the extended sample and the complication of the change in Premier from one polling period to the next, I’m not sure where things stand on this particular occasion.