Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 31, Greens 12 (open thread)

A Resolve Strategic poll off an expanded sample to accommodate detailed Indigenous Voice results does nothing to change its status as the strongest poll series for Labor.

Nine Newspapers have published the latest federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic, which offer no indication that declining support for the Indigenous Voice has damaged the Labor government. Labor is credited with 37% of the primary vote, up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three to 31%. The Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are up two to 7%. The pollster does not provide two-party results, but based on previous election preference flows, this comes out at around 57-43. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up four to 44%, and his combined very poor and poor rating is down four to 43%. Peter Dutton is respectively down five to 30% and up two to 45%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 47-25, out from 43-28.

The voting intention numbers are from the same juiced-up sample of 4728 and extended field work period of September 22 to October 4 that produced yesterday’s Indigenous Voice result of 56-44 in favour of no, which reflected the voting intention in being more favourable to the government than the tenor of polling elsewhere. I might have hoped this would have meant more comprehensive state breakdowns than usual, but there is no sign of that to this point, with only the usual results for the three largest states provided on the Resolve Monitor display.

The sample for the leaders’ ratings was only 1604, which presumably relates to the 3116 sample size for separately published follow-up results today on the Indigenous Voice – evidently respondents were asked one set of questions or the other. Among many other things, the Indigenous Voice results offer the finding that 38% of respondents considered that colonisation had had a positive impact on Indigenous people compared with only 23% for negative and 41% for mixed or unsure.

The usual practice for Resolve Strategic is to follow up its national poll later in the week with state results for New South Wales or Victoria, alternating between the two with samples that combine results from two of the monthly polls. This month was due to be the turn of Victoria, but given the extended sample and the complication of the change in Premier from one polling period to the next, I’m not sure where things stand on this particular occasion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

931 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 31, Greens 12 (open thread)”

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  1. @Dr Doolittle: Thankyou. I appreciate the history lesson, as I am a little too young to have been actively lawyering (or even a law student) in 1993, and didn’t immediately grasp what that subsection 3 was about.

    I would put it you that had Keating NOT done that, and effectively declared open season for Indigenous Australians to seek retrospective compensation at taxpayer expense for everything done between 1975 and 1993 that impinged upon a native title that no government, business or farmer understood was there, the outcry would have been such that Howard would have been able to legislate to end native title in 1996 with popular support, instead of being forced to grudgingly accept it existed and fight around the edges of it.

    Who knows, the Racial Discrimination Act (long hated by the conservatives) might have been watered down as collateral damage.

    To put it another way, having stretched to the edges of what the common law could deliver for Indigenous people, with the Liberal Party geeing up Australians to be afraid of land claims against their backyards, to then say “by the way, due to the Racial Discrimination Act, Indigenous people also get 18 years of compo for every government decision that derogated from native title” was probably a bit too far to stretch all at once without it snapping back nastily in the face. I remember that much about the general mood outside Labor circles.

  2. The community had a security team, and houses had safe rooms, but they – like the highest echelons of the Israeli army and government – were not prepared for the wave of attackers racing out of the breached Gaza.

    As one of the surviving kibbutz members told the ABC this afternoon, their safe rooms were only constructed to be safe from overhead missiles, which get fired off regularly from Gaza, he said. So may be meant to be safe from missile fragments etc. However, they were never meant to be able to keep people safe from frontal assault, by, for example, grenades thrown at the door of the safe room to blow it open. After which, the Hamas militants could just come in and kill the sitting ducks. 🙁

  3. DN your post above is well reasoned and thought provoking. Trouble is in this particular conflict it’s often impossible to distinguish between one group and the others.
    One thing I think we can be certain of is that children on all sides are in the innocent groups and should be respected as such.
    It’s been an impossible situation for a long time. Don’t know where you start to come up with real solutions.

  4. TPOFsays:
    Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 7:18 pm
    “But if it was a conflict against the IRA or the Mafia does that legitimise the killing of thousands of innocent civilians in Ireland or Italy?”


    A truly stupid and irrelevant analogy – especially the latter.

    Why is it a stupid analogy.
    I thought we are using analogies left, right and centre.

  5. This may seem pedantic, but it was Tacitus that wrote that the Romans made a desert and called it peace, not Josephus. It was put into the mouth of a Briton, calgacus, in Tacitus’s work about his father in law, Agricola.

  6. PaulTusays:
    Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 6:40 pm
    Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, October 11, 2023 at 6:31 pm
    “When an army embeds itself in a civilian population and in civilian homes, shops and offices, how can that army be fought without engaging in war crimes?
    I can’t see it.”

    It is difficult.

    But if it was a conflict against the IRA or the Mafia does that legitimise the killing of thousands of innocent civilians in Ireland or Italy?


    Good comment PaulTu

    Boerwar only sees things in his own prism, as do a lot of others.

    Let it be, you can’t convert the converted!

  7. I’ve just spent an hour listening to Blind Willie McTell because the blues soothes me.

    Albo will not lose a single vote over losing the referendum….

    I actually thought he was unelectable but I was so wrong.

    Honesty and passion is good enough for me.

  8. “When an army embeds itself in a civilian population and in civilian homes, shops and offices, how can that army be fought without engaging in war crimes?”
    We shouldn’t automatically conflate attacks on civilian infrastructure which is being used by an irregular terrorist force with “war crimes”. No international law prevents attack on any civilian population/locations when occupied by terrorists/enemy units, they only limit/guide to proportionality and having a legitimate military value. No army gains immunity from attack simply by occupying a residential structure. Hamas using civilian structures for command & control nodes, armouries, locations for launching rockets or a barracks for terror cells doesn’t give immunity to attack.

    The death of civilians from suppression of attacks involving residential areas being utilised by terrorists is on the hands of the terrorists. When a terrorist has no uniform and blends in with civilian populace, that is called perfidy, which is another war crime that the Palestinians are very much guilty of.

  9. I’ve spent the last hour quietly listening to Blind Willie McTell because old times blues calms my mind.

    Sometime ago there was a discussion here about prosperity religion. But it’s not necessarily crazy.

    The Jewish religion does not consider an afterlife but prays for fortune here on earth. Read about poor Job and his boils.

    The Rastafarians also believe in heaven on earth – I really miss smoking dope. God bless Jamaicans.

    Catholics believe that by your deeds you will be judged – this does promise an afterlife.

    Protestants – this is actually any Christian religion that is not Catholic or Orthodox – believe only in Faith. That is, if you have Faith you will naturally only be good. They also believe in Heaven.

    God, I’m quite tired and at this moment would like to share a Huge joint with a Rastafarian.

  10. As monsters of an earlier generation would explain how the napalm massacre of Vietnamese villages was the fault of the Vietcong for “hiding among” (i.e. actually being) the people, so we have a new generation of similarly depraved scum making the same argument today.

    Palestinian civilians have spent their whole lives being oppressed, abused, humiliated, tortured, imprisoned and murdered by the Israelis. For the crime of being indigenous to the territory of a settler ethnostate.

    It is the nature of any dignified human being to hate this kind of abusive treatment and the people inflicting it. I would expect, based on the fact that they are human beings, that the civilian population of Palestine, by and large, strongly support Hamas. Because Hamas opposes Israel, and it is Israel that have destroyed their lives, their parents lives, their children’s lives, and promises nothing but to destroy the lives of all of their descendants until the end of time.

    I’d like to see anyone who judges a Hamas-supporting Palestinian civilian spend a week in Gaza, even during the best of times.

    Unlike the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, who work for the Israelis that confiscate Palestinian homes for settlers on a daily basis, Hamas resist – which is in fact why Israel pulled its settlers out of Gaza. Their resistance to Israel is the root of their support.

    The problem is not Hamas; the problem is a people that refuse to lie down and die. So you better just kill them all. Because if you wipe out Hamas they will support whoever takes Hamas’ place in the fight against Israel, and they will do that for as long as Israel goes on treating them like literal garbage.

  11. I seem to remember Hamas winning a democratic election against an appeasing party because the people of Gaza wanted to defy Israel’s occupation.

    I could be wrong. I often am.

    Of course, they were immediately declared a terrorist organisation and the rest is history.

  12. Kilauea Volcano Update: Episodic Heightened Unrest Continues

    HAWAIʻI VOLCANOES NATIONAL PARK – Scientists say its still possible an eruption in the region from Halemaʻumaʻu south to the December 1974 vents could emerge with little notice during peaks in activity.

    Volcano Watch — Hawaii’s volcanoes are quiet and it’s a bit spooky

  13. See new posts
    Simon Rosenberg
    Reminder that Republicans, at this moment, are holding up the appointment of 300 senior Pentagon officials and the next Ambassador to Israel.

    We also lack a Republican Speaker of the House to pass additional support for Israel.

    All of these things might be useful right now

    Simon Rosenberg
    Until Republicans staff our military, allow an Ambassador to Israel to be appointed and elect a Speaker no one should listen to a single thing they say about the attack on Israel

  14. Politico:

    McCarthy loyalists vow to draw out painful speakership battle

    House Republicans’ state of emotional limbo is particularly problematic, since they’d otherwise welcome the chance to move quickly on aiding Israel.

    Republican lawmakers are scheduled to meet Tuesday evening for another forum on the internal speakership election that’s expected to take place on Wednesday, though neither Scalise nor Jordan has the votes to win the speakership on the House floor — and, importantly, McCarthy does not have the votes he’d need either. That emotional limbo is particularly problematic for House Republicans who would otherwise welcome the chance to move quickly on helping Israel beat back weekend attacks by Hamas.

    While the conference remains polarized, Duarte joined GOP Reps. Carlos Gimenez and John Rutherford of Florida in making their plans clear during a closed-door House GOP conference meeting Monday night, according to three GOP lawmakers.

    Rutherford warned his fellow Republicans that he was prepared to keep voting for McCarthy over and over, suggesting that the former speaker’s still livid supporters are ready to hold out for some time in order to undercut the other candidates.

  15. Watermelon

    Don’t tell my wife about my new crush on you.

    Just kidding. In forty years, I’ve not got away with anything.

    Still, she cuts me a lot of slack.

  16. Watermelon: That’s a lot of words to avoid saying “Hamas beheading babies is not justified.”

    The rest of your post is just whataboutism, or drawing false analogies between America, who were blasting civilians in unaligned hamlets for no reason in a war they started and Israel, who are currently defending their citizens from thousands of rocket attacks from Hamas terrorists who enjoy beheading babies, abducting & raping women, murdering entire families cowering in bomb shelters, hiding in their own civilian populace and using civilian locations to launch attacks, wearing false uniforms to ambush people driving on streets and massacring hundreds of innocent people at concerts.

  17. So Scalise wins nomination. Will he win the vote in the House?

    That Jordan gets 99 votes out of 212 in the GOP caucus vote says almost everything about the GOP. That Scalise voted against certifying the 2020 election and tried to overthrow it in Court yet still couldn’t get the hardliners on board (and might not get them all on the House floor) tells you the rest of what you need to know about about the GOP.

  18. Niki Savva this morning is again excellent reading.

    As the most prominent, the most effective and most polarising participant in the black-on-black conflict, Price has called the shots for the Coalition. She says up front what many of them think but few dare to say. The photo of Price acting as barista in a Perth cafe with Dutton smiling awkwardly behind her like a mobile coffee caddy, says it all.

    Not only has she has given white folk an excuse to vote no, she has absolved them of any guilt or shame for past wrongs by insisting colonisation had benefited Aboriginal people. Read David Marr’s excellent book Killing for Country and judge for yourself.

    Another of the many low points of this campaign was when the media and others perversely condemned Indigenous leader Marcia Langton for calling out racism, rather than condemn the racism itself. We live in dangerous times when Ray Martin cops more abuse from the Noes for using words like dinosaurs and dickheads than does a neo-Nazi who threatens to kill a senator.

    And apparently Dutton tried to secure Ken Wyatt’s vote for the leadership but Wyatt was shrewd enough to know Dutton is not leadership material.

  19. The economic situation of Gaza could have been considerably enhanced if, after Israel left in 2005, they had developed their 50km of coastline into the Riviera of the western Mediterranean.

  20. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Thursday, October 12, 2023 at 5:49 am

    One for BW
    Finally one of the adults in the room recognises two Chinas

    Now all we need is to get the Taiwanese to agree’
    Thank you. The Taiwanese have a dragon by the tail. They know that they will never conquer the mainland so the only prospect of a unified China is one ruled by Xi and the Chicommies.

    The Taiwanese majority is perfectly clear about not wanting to be ruled by Xi. But the nanosecond the Taiwanese announce that the Chicommies are a pack of draconian inhumane anti-democratic bastards and that Taiwans is independent they will force Xi to invade.

    Xi has his own dilemma. He will only launch a military assault on Taiwan that he knows for sure he can win. A military loss there would be a catastrophic failure.

    So, the pas de deux continues with Xi doing the usual mix of military threats, military incursions, threats that certain Taiwanese and their families will get the treatment when Taiwan is uniformed, economic bastardry by way of sudden bans on Taiwanese exports to China all combined with blandishments about the wonderful benefits Watermelon’s paradise on earth. (Watermelon will call you very bad words if you upset him so it is important to get Xi’s paradise on earth exactly right.)

    Xi is doing everything he can to modernize the PLA. The PLAN is in the process of the biggest naval build up in world peace time history, with twin emphases on blue water and amphibious capacities.

    Naturally the infowars element of the grey war is ever present.

  21. Dr Dolittle and Arky

    “What subsection 3 quoted above did was to prevent any possible legal redress by those traditional title owners who had their traditional title extinguished before the protections of the Native Title Act, as limited as they are, were created. Those traditional title owners from 1975 to 1993 were left in the lurch.”

    Filled with respect as I am for the good doctor, this isn’t quite right.

    The section deals only with the *validity* of extinguishing acts, it does not disentitle native title owners from compensation for those past acts post-1975.,Racial%20Discrimination%20Act%20was%20passed).

    “Under the Native Title Act 1993 (Cth), native title holders can make a claim for compensation for things done by the government after 31 October 1975 (the date the Racial Discrimination Act was passed).”

  22. Morrison spends his term destroying our relationship with China, watches Penny start the fixing process, and then decides to pop up to wreck it again? What a clown. He needs to PO asap.

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