Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 31, Greens 12 (open thread)

A Resolve Strategic poll off an expanded sample to accommodate detailed Indigenous Voice results does nothing to change its status as the strongest poll series for Labor.

Nine Newspapers have published the latest federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic, which offer no indication that declining support for the Indigenous Voice has damaged the Labor government. Labor is credited with 37% of the primary vote, up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three to 31%. The Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are up two to 7%. The pollster does not provide two-party results, but based on previous election preference flows, this comes out at around 57-43. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up four to 44%, and his combined very poor and poor rating is down four to 43%. Peter Dutton is respectively down five to 30% and up two to 45%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 47-25, out from 43-28.

The voting intention numbers are from the same juiced-up sample of 4728 and extended field work period of September 22 to October 4 that produced yesterday’s Indigenous Voice result of 56-44 in favour of no, which reflected the voting intention in being more favourable to the government than the tenor of polling elsewhere. I might have hoped this would have meant more comprehensive state breakdowns than usual, but there is no sign of that to this point, with only the usual results for the three largest states provided on the Resolve Monitor display.

The sample for the leaders’ ratings was only 1604, which presumably relates to the 3116 sample size for separately published follow-up results today on the Indigenous Voice – evidently respondents were asked one set of questions or the other. Among many other things, the Indigenous Voice results offer the finding that 38% of respondents considered that colonisation had had a positive impact on Indigenous people compared with only 23% for negative and 41% for mixed or unsure.

The usual practice for Resolve Strategic is to follow up its national poll later in the week with state results for New South Wales or Victoria, alternating between the two with samples that combine results from two of the monthly polls. This month was due to be the turn of Victoria, but given the extended sample and the complication of the change in Premier from one polling period to the next, I’m not sure where things stand on this particular occasion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

931 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 31, Greens 12 (open thread)”

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  1. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that air strikes in Gaza were “just the beginning” as he vowed to do “everything for Israelis held captive”.
    This comes after Hamas has threatened to kill one Israeli hostage any time Palestinian civilians are targeted in their Gaza homes “without prior warning”.
    Abu Obeida, the spokesman of Hamas’s military wing, Qassam Brigades, said the group is responding to heavy bombarding and strikes of Gaza’s residential areas which has seen homes collapse over civilians’ heads.

  2. I wonder if this Resolve result will see a flattening out of the post-May slide in ALP TPP on BludgerTrack?

    Also, it’s pretty clear that most voters are distinguishing between a ‘Yes’ for the Voice and a vote for Labor. Unless this changes post-referendum, it looks like Dutton will have trashed reconciliation for no appreciable partisan gain. Strategic failure to go along with his moral failure.

  3. From the previous thread:

    a r @ 11.48pm,
    A little too one-sided imo. Israel’s legally dubious and ethically bankrupt land-grabs via settlements have been going on for ages. There’s a laundry-list of incidents where Israel has disproportionately employed modern firepower against targets armed with, at best, primitive weaponry. Like literal assault-rifles versus rocks type stuff. Israel’s PM just told a 2-million strong population of mostly civilians who had nothing to do with the attacks to leave, because he’s about to have the Israeli army raze their homes. And though he’s corrupt-as the Israeli population keeps voting him back in anyways.

    For me this is pretty close to a textbook case of “neither side deserves support”. Both have a right to exist. Create. Flourish. Why do they both need to exist, create, and flourish in that one specific spot though? That’s down to religion. Take the “holy lands” aspect off the table, and one side or the other would be free to do the sane thing and go live somewhere where they’re not surrounded by neighbors who either want them dead or gone. Or just peacefully coexist.

    But you can’t take religion off the table, so insanity prevails. Only one faith can control the Holy McGuffin, and they’re going to fight to determine who wants it more. Last one standing wins. It’s mostly just irrational and sad.

    100% However, I took into account that, with a name like Schmidt, Steve was probably a little biased.

    I absolutely agree that Israel and Likud have a lot to answer for and have been the genesis of a lot that is evil in that region. As have Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. And Russia. I think it’s obvious that Russia has a plan, along with Iran, and they are executing it. It is they who are the Greater Satan in this instance though, imho. Maybe I’m biased because I’ve had kids that have gone to raves in an open field. Also because the scale of the plans that Russia and Iran have for the Middle East and Africa, and Europe, in concert with their partner, China, are on an horrific scale. The Hamas attack is a part of this grander plan. Netanyahu ‘simply’ wants a fight over ‘his part’ of the Middle East. As venal as that is, in itself, on a scale of 1 to 10, the Russia-China-Iran plan is an 11, and he is a 3.

  4. UK Changes +/- 1 October Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    Labour leads by 16% nationally.

    Labour 43% (–)
    Conservative 27% (-2)
    Liberal Democrat 13% (+1)
    Reform UK 8% (+1)
    Green 6% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 1% (-2)
    Other 2% (+1)

  5. Pueo @ #3 Tuesday, October 10th, 2023 – 5:41 am

    AEC calls for ‘civility’ in last week of voice campaign as staff report clashes with voters

    Electoral commission says ‘vast majority’ well behaved but there have been issues between opposing campaigners and workers filmed without consent

    I received an apology from the AEC for what happened to me when I voted, and my complaint has been referred to the divisional office.

    I reckon it’s only going to get worse this week, and I can’t imagine what it’ll be like on Saturday.

  6. Iran, via their proxy, Hezbollah, just itching to suck America in:

    Hezbollah has threatened to attack America’s positions if the country intervenes. Yesterday, the United States sent a fleet of warships to the eastern Mediterranean.

  7. Albo will be able to brief Biden on the voice ref, discuss Hamas and the Australian cost of living crisis when he does the State visit to Biden next week.

  8. ‘fess,
    From what I’ve seen at the Pre Poll, the Liberals feel unburdened by the usual election rules that prohibit them from going close to the polling place. So they have been attaching themselves like limpets to the voters when they turn up and then getting in their ear the whole way up to when they go into the voting centre. As Liberals are trained to do. The ‘Yes’ campaign have trained their people to be polite. The Liberals don’t even know the meaning of ‘polite’.

  9. Still singing your inane little song, Lars Von Trier?

    Nine Newspapers have published the latest federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic, which offer no indication that declining support for the Indigenous Voice has damaged the Labor government. Labor is credited with 37% of the primary vote, up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three to 31%.

    Maybe you need to sing it on behalf of the Coalition? 😐

  10. C@t:

    The grubby race war the Coalition and their spruikers have played with the referendum has given legitimacy to the behaviour at polling places from the No campaigners.

    This genie is going to be very hard to put back in the bottle come October 15.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Hamas has threatened to execute one hostage for every Israeli attack on Gaza that lands without warning, marking an extraordinary escalation in tensions in the Middle East following the unprecedented incursions into Israel by the militant group on Saturday. This is not going to end well.
    Israel’s defence minister ordered a “complete siege” of the long-blockaded Gaza Strip on Monday, as Hamas, the militant group controlling the territory, threatened to execute a civilian hostage every time an airstrike hits Gazans “in their homes without warning”.
    Consensus will last a while because this crisis is far from over. But fairly soon, Israel will be plunged into a divisive political argument about what went wrong, writes Gordon Bachmann.
    If we think this is just a savage new round of the Israel-Palestine struggle, we should think again says Peter Hartcher.
    In the midst of war, Benjamin Netanyahu is a liability who can only make things worse. He must go, argues Simon Tisdall.
    It’s time for more sensible thinking about productivity, urges Ross Gittins who comes down hard on the rent seekers of big business.
    A disputed claim over the Indigenous Voice is now the biggest factor in turning people against the proposal, with 22 per cent of voters saying they find it persuasive when critics argue it would divide Australians by race. David Crowe writes that voters are being convinced to back the Voice, however, by assurances that it would help solve entrenched disadvantage and produce better outcomes by listening to Indigenous people.
    There’s no spin or ex-post facto interpretation of the likely defeat of the Aboriginal Voice referendum able to disguise a resounding setback for Aboriginal Australians, writes Jack Waterford wo says there’s no evidence that defeat of the referendum foretells doom for Albanese and the Labor government.
    Noel Pearson says he will walk away from advocating for a “middle path” of compromise if the voice to parliament referendum fails, claiming reconciliation would not be viable in the event of a no vote. The longtime Indigenous activist and respected community leader says he would instead allow a new generation of Indigenous leaders to chart a different path forward.
    The longstanding treatment of Lidia Thorpe by the political and media class exposes the difficulty of being an Indigenous woman with strong and articulated views, writes Jennifer Wilson.,17968
    A Coalition-led inquiry into Australia’s aviation sector has called for reforms that could include the power to break up Qantas amid outrage over stifled competition and the airline’s potential influence over government decision-making. Angus Thompson tells us that the opposition and Greens have teamed up to accuse the Albanese government of being too close to the national carrier in the findings of an inquiry launched after Transport Minister Catherine King rejected a bid by Qatar Airways to double its flights into Australia.
    Ben Smee writes that the fringe-right favourite Amanda Stoker is returning to politics as LNP moderates worry about her Christian faction ties.
    Michael McGowan reports that the largest mental health facility in NSW has again been rocked by allegations a toxic culture of bullying has taken hold, leading to a mass exodus of staff who claim they were victims of “stifling, anxiety-provoking” management.
    Boral boss Vik Bansal says spiking electricity prices and Australia’s patchy energy transition are prompting the country’s biggest cement, concrete and asphalt producer to temporarily halt manufacturing each day, leaving thousands of staff idle, reports Simon Jonason.
    A mining executive forged his business partner’s signature to seize control of their company after an energy giant hit them with a $20 million debt for failing to provide coal to a power plant north of Sydney, a court has found. Premier Energy Resources was set up in December 2020 to supply coal waste and, since then, took over a mining lease and signed a contract to supply Delta Electricity’s Vales Point power station in Lake Macquarie. He could be in a spot of bother.
    Scientists have identified a major new threat to the Great Barrier Reef – invisible groundwater flows delivering nutrients at harmful levels.
    It is illegal to advertise prescription drugs in Australia yet Seven News broadcast advertorial for Big Pharma’s latest weight-loss blockbuster Mounjaro and may attract the gaze of the Therapeutic Goods Association. Callum Foote reports.
    Vivienne Pearson is mightily pissed off with Coles and Woolworths – with quite some justification.
    For the best part of 40 years investors in bonds were buying into the biggest bull market for bonds in modern history. US investors are now experiencing the biggest bear market for bonds in modern history, explains Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    In the latest saga of Donald Trump’s misdeeds, questions remain over the information he disclosed to Australian billionaire businessman Anthony Pratt, writes Binoy Kampmark.,17969
    The greater the fear Trump feels, the more sinister his threats become says Simon Blumenthal.
    Robert F Kennedy Jr’s run for the White House as an independent candidate is “perilous” for the US, his siblings said in a statement on Monday, immediately following their brother’s campaign launch in Philadelphia.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding

    John Shakespeare

    Andrew Dyson

    Mark Knight

    Dionne Gain

    Monique Westerman

    Peter Broelman


    From the US

  12. rent-a-crowd of utter ghouls was out in force yesterday, celebrating the rape, murder and desecration of children’s bodies, what utter f#$%^g filth they all are 😡

  13. Smarter observers have been pointing out that the NO albatross around Dutton’s neck would start to stink.

    So voters are shrugging their shoulders at the message about the Voice at the same time as they nod their heads at the messenger about the way he is running the country.

    Labor has increased its primary vote from 36 to 37 per cent over the past month and the Coalition has tumbled from 34 to 31 per cent, so the aversion to the Voice is yet to trigger a craving for the conservatives.

    Asked to nominate their preferred prime minister, 47 per cent name Albanese and only 25 per cent favour Peter Dutton, so the opposition leader has not gained a personal dividend from his ferocious arguments on the referendum. Albanese had a much smaller lead of 43 to 28 per cent one month ago.

    In fact, voters seem to be warming to Albanese again. The number of voters who say he is doing a good job has risen from 40 to 43 per cent over the past month, while the number saying he is doing a poor job has fallen from 47 to 43 per cent. This means his net performance rating is no longer negative.

    Dutton, however, has returned to a net performance rating of minus 15. The number who think he is doing a good job has fallen from 35 to 30 over the past month, while the number saying he is doing a poor job has risen from 43 to 45 per cent.

  14. What the terrorists did in southern Israel was inexcusable.

    However, Netanyahu – partly because it might advantage him politically but mostly because he is a narrow-minded warmonger – seems now to be playing right into the hands of Hamas and giving that evil organisation exactly what it is looking for.

    That is, Israel inflicting untold casualties and unimaginable hardship on the mass of ordinary Palestinians, thereby winning the hearts and minds of the entire Islamic world back to Hamas’s brand of extremist bulls__t.

    The smart move by Israel at this stage would not be to make bellicose statements like “we’ve only just started” and “the Middle East is never going to be the same,” but to at least go through the motions of offering some form of peace on the basis that all of the hostages are returned. There is virtually no chance of that happening, but it would put Israel on a much higher moral ground.

    Although, in the end, Israel-haters are going to hate and international bodies will wring their hands and issue statements full of platitudes. Warning: when these sorts of situations arise, never engage in a drinking game based on the number of times UN officials and national foreign ministers “urge both sides to show restraint.” You’ll end up in a coma.

  15. sprocket_ “Smarter observers have been pointing out that the NO albatross around Dutton’s neck would start to stink.”

    Or perhaps it’s simply that, while the majority will vote No, the issue is of very little importance to them, and that they are generally quite happy with how Albo is going.

  16. Sprocket and c@t rejoicing at the resolve poll – oh dear!

    If there is one certainty on pollbludger predictions from those two posters are always wRoNg!

  17. For mine Williams bludgertrack is a proven barometer of the state of play.

    For every resolve there is a freshwater. The trend is more indicative – and that trend is we seem to be heading for a repeat of 2022 , with some small movement in seats.

    It seems to be about whether it’s a majority or minority Labor Govt.

  18. From the NYTimes..

    Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy held a 35-minute news conference at the Capitol, laying out a five-part plan for the United States to rush to Israel’s aid. “Now is the time for action,” he said. McCarthy called for resupplying weapons and operations to rescue American hostages. The House is currently leaderless after McCarthy was forced out of his job last week, and he said lawmakers are unable to respond until a new speaker is chosen. McCarthy said he was open to returning to the job if his fellow Republicans would reinstate him.

  19. Robert F Kennedy (RFK) Jr, the nephew of assassinated president JFK, has ditched the party of his forebears to try to plot a path to the White House as an independent. In a move that could reshape the dynamics of the US presidential race, RFK Jr launched a fresh campaign in Philadelphia six months after announcing he was taking on Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination.
    He told gathered supporters it was “very painful” to split with the party of his political dynasty family, but that Americans deserved an alternative to the two-party system. “Three-quarters of Americans believe that President Biden is too old to govern effectively,” he told gathered supporters at a campaign launch in Philadelphia. “President Trump faces both civil and criminal trials. “Both of them have favourability ratings that are deep in negative territory. That’s what two-party politics has given us.”

  20. Lars Von Trier was the one rejoicing at Newspoll, trilling his inane little ditty. Well, back at you, Lars Von Trier. Don’t worry, I’ve bookmarked your bleat at 7.49am for posterity. The National Integrity Commission have only just started on your lot. 😀

  21. Um, Robert F.Kennedy Jr. is too insane to govern effectively. Also, he’s the candidate of Steve Bannon and his dark money from China and Russia.

  22. So far the MAGA brigade, and MAGA-adjacent figures like Kevin McCarthy, seem to be falling over each other to demand that the US provide Israel with massive amounts of support, as well as blaming the whole thing on the money supplied to Iran through the recent US hostage deal (you know the one where the US paid $6 billion to Iran which is still sitting in a special bank account and hasn’t actually been touched yet).

    And yet one would think that there is a very strong anti-Semitic feeling among much of the MAGA base. I wonder if some prominent MAGA person will eventually break ranks and claim that the attacks were a false flag operation by Israel, or some such nonsense.

    I note that some on the Democrat far left – in particular Cori Bush and Rashida Tlaib – are already embarrassing their side of politics by making statements that could reasonably be construed as being pro-Hamas.

  23. As I said last night, I can’t defend Hamas, or its murderous attack. I also can’t defend Israeli policy to Palestine and the west bank. I agree with the Shakespeare cartoon on leaving the Opera House neutral white.

  24. c@t: it’s surely far too early to be making any assumptions about how the referendum result will play out in the next elections.

    While I don’t believe that a poor result for Yes in the referendum is likely to damage the Albo government all that much, I also think it’s possible that any damage that it might do is more likely to become noticeable in post-October 14 polling rather than before it: particularly if anyone on the Yes side really spits the dummy: which I doubt that anyone in the government might do, but I’m a little more nervous about the some of the more radical Yes campaigners. There is a risk that someone might give the Murdoch media an absolute field day by saying something stupid like “Indigenous people will need to get guns.”

    But, even then, I think the whole business will quickly slip from the minds of most voters. First term governments in Australia almost always win a second term, so there have never been any strong grounds for concern on that front: especially with an Opposition that is really struggling to reach out to the centre.

  25. ‘Rainman says:
    Monday, October 9, 2023 at 11:39 pm

    ‘Hamas will do what it has always done: make 100% sure that Israel will have to kill many, many civilians in order to kill Hamas soldiers and to destroy Hamas war fighting capacity.’

    Wow! I never realised that the Israeli government was so naive and gullible that Hamas makes them kill civilians.

    Go kill a wombat.’
    Knowing that Israel will respond with thousands of precision-guided munitions, Hamas takes 100% care to ensure that its soldiers, its defensive positions, its tunnels, its bunkers, its command centres, its munition dumps, its rocket factories and its training areas are kept well separate from civilians.


    You might not get it but Gazan civilians do.

    So does Hamas.

    The infosphere war problem for Hamas here is that massacring hundreds teenagers at a music festival, and shooting suburban mums, dads and kids in their homes, is going to mask the usual international outcry about civilian suffering and civilian casualties in Gaza.

    I hate war. Always have. I hate what it does to civilians. I hate what it does to soldiers. I hate what it does to the minds and hearts of otherwise humane and reasonable people. I hate the way in which war inevitably enables psychopaths, narcissists and idiots.

  26. I note that some on the Democrat far left – in particular Cori Bush and Rashida Tlaib – are already embarrassing their side of politics by making statements that could reasonably be construed as being pro-Hamas.

    And in a sign of who the adults are in the rooms of the American Congress, they’ve already been disciplined for those statements by their leadership.

  27. I was going to do a silly post about sovereign citizens, then came across this rather sad report on poker machine gambling loses.

    Stated increase of losses up by 13% nation wide from 2019 to 2023. From $12.7 billion to $14.5 billion.

    Tas Labor went to the 2018 election with a policy to not renew the single poker machine license when it came up for renewal (policy now dropped). The advertising against the policy broke records for campaign spending in the state, with tag lines like “Labor and the Greens think you’re stupid. What’s next? Don’t let them tell you what to do.”

  28. There is a risk that someone might give the Murdoch media an absolute field day by saying something stupid like “Indigenous people will need to get guns.”

    I don’t think. 😐

    And if it does come from someone, then it’s more likely to come from a Lidia Thorpe-supporting ‘No’ person. They’re the ones calling for a revolution, not evolution.

  29. Pearson is stating the obvious.

    This generation of senior Indigenous leaders will be delegitimized by a large No vote. Reconciliation in any large or genuine sense would be dead in the water.

    The next generation of Indigenous leaders are being provided with three options: hobbling along with the status quo (Mundine), assimilation (Price) or a more extreme approach to the revolution (Thorpe).

    Pick your poison.

  30. Thomas Mayo, Rachel Perkins, Megan Davis and Dean Parkin are the new generation of Indigenous Australian leaders. The sensible ones.

  31. Socrates: “As I said last night, I can’t defend Hamas, or its murderous attack. I also can’t defend Israeli policy to Palestine and the west bank. I agree with the Shakespeare cartoon on leaving the Opera House neutral white.”

    I’m not having a go at you in particular, but I struggle to understand what Israel can really do now about Gaza other than to invade it (the West Bank is a different matter: a good start for Israel there would be to put a stop to settler encroachments).

    Gaza is supposed to be self-governing. But it is controlled by a pack of militant extremists who have diverted much of the money they have received in goodwill from around the world towards stockpiling weapons which they have now used against Israel to murder hundreds of innocent people (perhaps thousands by the time all the bodies are found). Meanwhile the people of Gaza suffer through lack of decent government services and a functioing economy.

    In my view, it would be perfectly defensible for Israel to reoccupy Gaza and restore effective government and try to rebuild its economy, while also putting the extremists out of business. A really smart move, if it could be achieved, would be to try to establish a system of joint control over Gaza with the Fatah regime of the West Bank, and possibly to involve Egypt and some other Arab countries. This would of course require Israel to refrain from indiscriminately bombing the crap out of Gaza, and I fear that Netanyahu isn’t capable of such forethought. But he might surprise me.

  32. I provoked some argument on Sunday night when I posted about meeting some friends who were former DSTO or RAN staff who were concerned about the cost and reality of AUKUS.

    I didn’t mention then but they and others I know in Adelaide marine engineering are also getting pretty concerned about the long delay in funding decisions on naval shipbuilding from the Albanese government.

    When the government changed in May 2022 a lot of reviews were announced. What was less publicised was a virtual freeze on spending on all the things being reviewed. This included many infrastructure projects and a lot of proposed shipbuilding work.

    Despite talk about AUKUS jobs, the job creation has been in Canberra. New trainees are being hired (on starting wages) but very little work is around for existing workers. For many smaller contractors this is reaching the point of crisis.

    This AFR article is from last Friday but is pretty consistent with what my friends say.

    I didn’t bother mentioning it last year so as not to pile on Labor amid all the other arguments. But Catherine King and Richard Marles are not popular in their industries. They haven’t made decisions. If the spending slowdown is deliberate cabinet policy, then they are unlucky. If it is not, then they are failing.

    Either way, both are seen as saying one thing (delivery promises) and doing something else (no delivery approvals or money).

  33. “Labor is … up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three …”

    “Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up four … and his combined very poor and poor rating is down four … Dutton is respectively down five … and up two …”

    In the immortal words of PVO: “Wow!”

  34. Lars Von Trier says:
    “Whatever gets you through the night c@t is alright by me.”

    A timely quote, given that it’s still John Lennon’s birthday in Liverpool and New York.

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