Nine Newspapers have published the latest federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic, which offer no indication that declining support for the Indigenous Voice has damaged the Labor government. Labor is credited with 37% of the primary vote, up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three to 31%. The Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are up two to 7%. The pollster does not provide two-party results, but based on previous election preference flows, this comes out at around 57-43. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up four to 44%, and his combined very poor and poor rating is down four to 43%. Peter Dutton is respectively down five to 30% and up two to 45%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 47-25, out from 43-28.
The voting intention numbers are from the same juiced-up sample of 4728 and extended field work period of September 22 to October 4 that produced yesterday’s Indigenous Voice result of 56-44 in favour of no, which reflected the voting intention in being more favourable to the government than the tenor of polling elsewhere. I might have hoped this would have meant more comprehensive state breakdowns than usual, but there is no sign of that to this point, with only the usual results for the three largest states provided on the Resolve Monitor display.
The sample for the leaders’ ratings was only 1604, which presumably relates to the 3116 sample size for separately published follow-up results today on the Indigenous Voice – evidently respondents were asked one set of questions or the other. Among many other things, the Indigenous Voice results offer the finding that 38% of respondents considered that colonisation had had a positive impact on Indigenous people compared with only 23% for negative and 41% for mixed or unsure.
The usual practice for Resolve Strategic is to follow up its national poll later in the week with state results for New South Wales or Victoria, alternating between the two with samples that combine results from two of the monthly polls. This month was due to be the turn of Victoria, but given the extended sample and the complication of the change in Premier from one polling period to the next, I’m not sure where things stand on this particular occasion.
“Labor is … up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three …”
“Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up four … and his combined very poor and poor rating is down four … Dutton is respectively down five … and up two …”
______
Will Sussan Ley make her move? 🙂
c@t: “Thomas Mayo, Rachel Perkins, Megan Davis and Dean Parkin are the new generation of Indigenous Australian leaders. The sensible ones.”
Exactly in what way is Mayo sensible? He comes across to me as being a fair way to the left of the ALP. I am assured that he is “smoking hot” by some women I know who saw him in person when he was down in Tassie recently. I guess that might help him a bit with the voters.
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 at 6:44 am
Lars Von Trier,
I think you just slipped and slid on a banana peel.
”
No. It is Slippin n slidin. 🙂
BK @ #51 Tuesday, October 10th, 2023 – 8:41 am
She won’t be allowed to. She’s a woman. Only there for decorative purposes. It would be Angus Taylor, if anyone on that side. However, peter Dutton looks to have an iron grip on the leadership, despite his polling.
meher baba,
There’s a few young hotties in the Indigenous leadership ranks. One who came to Tassie recently was Matt Jeffrey. Check him out. 😀
BW: “The infosphere war problem for Hamas here is that massacring hundreds teenagers at a music festival, and shooting suburban mums, dads and kids in their homes, is going to mask the usual international outcry about civilian suffering and civilian casualties in Gaza.”
Yeah, it’s tough the way that massacring hundreds of innocent people makes it a little more difficult to represent yourselves to the world as victims.
That said, all the usual suspects seem to be coming out and blaming Israel. Although, as far as I know, John Pilger and Noam Chomsky haven’t commented just yet. Both of them are getting pretty long in the tooth, although quite recently Chomsky was blaming the West for the war in the Ukraine and defending China against its critics.
You are not following the Vic inquiry into the Commonwealth Games debacle BK ?
You should. It is giving a great insight into how the Vic Govt does business.
Jacinta Allan caught out lying already.
Harriet Shing caught out lying already.
The United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy issue joint statement saying they will support Israel to ‘defend itself’.
Quell surprise that gambling organisations, otherwise know as sporting and RSL clubs, are using a loophole in the tax system to claim they are spending more on community programs than they actually are.
many clubs claimed “waste and removal costs, Foxtel subscription, staff wages and expenses, leasing costs and free entertainment for members” as community benefits. The majority of claims related to “operating costs”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/09/pokie-operating-clubs-exploiting-egregious-loophole-for-tax-breaks-victorian-council-claims
#weatheronPB
Cool calm air carries,
the faint mingled urban smells,
of human breakfasts.
c@t: “meher baba,
There’s a few young hotties in the Indigenous leadership ranks. One who came to Tassie recently was Matt Jeffrey. Check him out. ”
Are you sure he’s called Matt Jeffrey? I can’t find any reference to him online.
Anyway, I’m not the type of guy who goes for guys. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. 🙂
Good, hamas needs to be crushed from head to tail 😡
The only way that the Liberals would replace Peter Dutton, barring a scandal or gross incompetence that even media allies couldn’t minimise, would be if they decided to abandon their strategy of doubling down on Hard Right and try to tack closer to the Centre. I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Steve777 @ #63 Tuesday, October 10th, 2023 – 9:19 am
As I’ve said a few times, he only needs to succeed at 3 things in this term of government, and I’d say he’s achieved 2 of these.
Hold the party together, after a few early wobbles in the first 6 months after the 2022 election loss, I’d say he has largely stabilized the party.
Defeat the Voice, sure we’re a few days off this but polling is showing that he’s on track to achieve this.
Hold Labor to S3 tax cuts, this is his next big fight and we’ll have to wait and see how this one plays out. Labor haven’t given him a crack to get into yet, but dont worry there’s still time.
Looking ahead into the longer term I’d say his next task will be going into the 2025 Election. His goals will be not to go backwards, get a few teal seats back, and move Labor into minority.
He gets this right and PM Dutton is a possibility in 2028.
Simon Tisdall, in The Guardian, asks “Why is Benjamin Netanyahu still the prime minister of Israel?” The answer is simple. When Israelis look in the mirror, what they see is Benjamin Netanyahu.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/10/family-of-fatal-nsw-police-shootings-call-for-independent-inquiry
One step is to quicken up the coronial process which drags on forever.
Another is to have coronial recommendations acted upon
For something light hearted. My youngest went with her partner to see the band Kiss in Sydney over weekend. She is not a fan but her partner is.
Anyhoo it was at Accor stadium.
They had booked hotel in CBD.
They didn’t realise until they booked transport, that the stadium was so far from city. They thought it was about 10 mins away.
Turns out by car it was over 40 mins, and by train it was over an hour.
They felt kinda silly not realising this sooner. Lol!
Netanyahu will eventually be ousted. Shame it is not right now.
Socrates
Exactly how should Israel have been dealing with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip? Just let them continue to attack Israelis? Exactly what is your solution? River to the Sea? Dissolution of Israel?
@mostly interested,
I would be amazed if Dutton were still the leader of the LNP come 2028.
Abbott for all his faults, was at least likeable on a personal level. Dutton is just creepy. His embrace of MAGAism may make him popular with the LNP groupie rump, but it is anathema to younger Australians. We also have to thank our lucky stars for the AEC, compulsory voting, and of course preferential voting. We still have a few safeguards. We must fight to protect them. Dutton’s LNP is essentially anti-democratic.
Reviewing the Russian mil-blogger Telegram channels, they are cheerleading Hamas – with some eye-opening suggestions:
– Kadyrov is offering to send his Chechen fighters as ‘peace keepers’
– Russia is being proposed as a ‘mediator’
– Claims that the US will divert all their military aid away from Ukraine and towards Israel
– Putin is meeting today with the Iraqi PM, and tomorrow with the Palestine leader Abbas
A very different take to what we are seeing in the Western media. The first casualty and all that.
MABWM
“ Dutton’s LNP is essentially anti-democratic”
“That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. “ (Christopher Hitchens).
Stuart says:
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 at 9:28 am
Simon Tisdall, in The Guardian, asks “Why is Benjamin Netanyahu still the prime minister of Israel?” The answer is simple. When Israelis look in the mirror, what they see is Benjamin Netanyahu.
__________________________________
And when a Palestinian in Gaza looks in the mirror, they see a Hamas murderer of bound children.
See how easy it is to make trite and ignorant comments?
FUBAR @ #72 Tuesday, October 10th, 2023 – 9:43 am
Do we all remember Peter Dutton’s trips to the USA several years back.
He went over there to be taught the lessons learnt by very very smart people on how to mobilize voters for anti democratic outcomes. He absorbed those lessons extremely well, a top student, and we see daily the internalization of those lessons in how he frames all of his talking points and policy positions.
The right have developed a new political theory which they implement quite well, and the left are stuck without any answers to this new political theory.
As Roger Ailes once said, they worked out how to monetize the poor and uneducated through Fox, then turned it into a political movement. This is the work of 30 years and it has fundamentally shifted the politics of western nations.
The current version of Peter Dutton is a product of that thinking.
There you go – the LNP getting absolutely smashed in the polls for Dutton’s divisiveness. He’s bearing all the heat for the Voice ructions, not Albo.
I wonder if LNP supporters thought theyd actually get a boost from the No campaign?
I find it ironic that Bob Hawk had to stop wearing glasses to make himself more appealing to voters, and that Peter Dutton had to start wearing glasses to make himself more appealing to voters.
FYI:
https://youtu.be/doKl7MUkRuM?si=S14Oj8geSJe2WLYl
This ‘Voice’ debate is a few months old now, but if you have the time, perhaps worth watching.
Gaza..
And Netanyahu is in coalition with these rat bags to keep himself out of prison.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/what-saudi-israeli-deal-could-mean-palestinians
There can be no peace without justice.. this applies to both sides & Chris Minns should shut the fuck up.
He will prove to be one of the most useless Labor premiers.
@Nicholas
“ The only realistic solution now is to integrate Palestinians into Israel by granting them all of the rights of Israeli citizenship as well as generous compensation for the land that was stolen from them.”
That’s not a realistic solution, that’s the one-sided destruction of Israel and replacing it with an Arab state.
The only realistic solution is perhaps the current generation of combatants to die off or leave the stage, no Hamas and no Netanyahu, and people committed to peace on both sides.
This whole thing has been going since the Arab nations tried to wipe out Israel off the bat in 1948 and again repeatedly thereafter until Israel got so strong that the shoe was on the other foot and Israel became the aggressor. But that Israel has been the stronger side for a long time does not mean the Arab side are sweetness and light and deserve to get to succeed in their dream of genociding all the Jews out of the area either.
It took a very long time but we got peace in Ireland in a partitioned state solution. It may take a hundred years and another generation of leadership dying off or shuffling off the stage at least, but the only acceptable solution is peaceful co-existence where everyone just gives up on settling old grudges and gives up on owning the whole area as the price of that peace. And this is why I get so angry at campaigners like you who continue to encourage either side to hold out either for total victory or some sort of mass compensation where they and only they are treated as the righteous side. That position ensures peace will not happen. Only abandoning that kind of thinking can reach peace.
Vengeance and peace are mutually exclusive.
Propellor Cap Boy Nicholas’s ‘one state’ solution runs across exactly the same fault lines that has seen the ‘two state’ solution flounder. Only more so.
This is a typical contribution from Nicholas: First identify (at least in his own mind) the problems with one ‘orthodox’ solution or policy, but then come up with another which is entirely utopian with a sense of religious fervour which then sees him denounce the ‘unbelievers’ in words of a true zealot: witness his cult like fixation with ‘Modern Monetary Policy’ as the only ‘one true faith’ in economic theory.
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 at 9:43 am
MABWM
“ Dutton’s LNP is essentially anti-democratic”
“That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. “ (Christopher Hitchens).’
————————————–
Good but unintentional point, FUBAR. The evidence is Dutton’s resort to a pattern of open and bare-faced lying.
Nothing subverts a democracy more than that. Nothing.
Meanwhile in Adelaide: A board member of Nyunggai Warren Mundine’s anti-Voice outfit has declared that an Indigenous Voice to parliament would force white people to pay to live in Australia, while describing the stolen generations as a “mistruth”. Kerry White, who is helping lead the Recognise a Better Way referendum group, is scheduled to speak about the Voice at Adelaide’s “world freedom rally” which, as this masthead reported on Tuesday, is linked to a prominent Australian pro-Kremlin and anti-vaccine activist. White, a former One Nation candidate, this year denied the accepted history on the stolen generations, a systematic policy of child removal and forced assimilation for which the Australian government formally apologised in 2007.
“The stolen generation is a mistruth,” she said at a referendum event in Adelaide in June headlined by One Nation leader Pauline Hanson and fellow No campaign leader Gary Johns.
“Back in the early 1950s and 1960s, mixed race children were being removed and placed in institutions for their own safety.”
In a December podcast, White argued that the Voice, a proposed advisory body that would make representations to the government, was designed to “get rid of the parliament that’s there now and the Voice will end up taking over”. “And you can call me a conspiracy theorist if you like, but I know the way that these people work and that’s what will end up happening.”
“Aboriginal people will be running this country, and all the white people here will be paying to live here.” White’s claims were made without evidence.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/anti-voice-campaign-director-says-white-people-will-be-paying-to-live-here-if-referendum-succeeds-20230920-p5e68c.html
@Mostly Interested: Tosh.
We can certainly see that Dutton and most of the Lib parties around Australia parrot Republican tactics and Sky After Dark talking points, which reflect the American right wing media style promulgated by Fox News. That’s not a new insight.
But is it successful? In America, they don’t have compulsory voting, they don’t have adequate protection against gerrymandering or voter suppression, and the Senate system greatly overweights small Republican rural states over big urban Democratic states. There is a huge religion factor which the Republicans exploit, and race is a much bigger issue over there. EVEN WITH ALL THIS the Democrats handily won the popular vote anyway both times against Trump, and only the aforementioned factors helped Trump win the Presidency once despite losing the popular vote.
In Australia with compulsory voting, an independent electoral commission and no gerrymandering, and a less imbalanced Senate where the small over-represented State (Tassie) is a pretty even one anyway, the factors that let the Republican strategy triumph a little bit despite losing the popular vote are not present, the demographics of Australia are different.
It is only in Dutton’s fever dreams that working class Labor heartland seats are going to come flocking to him the way poor white manufacturing seats in the rust belt swung to Trump.
meher baba @ #35 Tuesday, October 10th, 2023 – 7:10 am
That’s an easy one. The anti-Muslim sentiment runs at least as strong among the same cohort. And remains significantly more socially acceptable. Really they’re just anti-other.
‘Nicholas
“ The only realistic solution now is to integrate Palestinians into Israel by granting them all of the rights of Israeli citizenship as well as generous compensation for the land that was stolen from them.
…’
——————————-
Put this in the bag with Nicholas’ other realistic solutions.
How have jewish (and for that matter other) minority populations fared elsewhere in the arab world over the past half century?
(I note in this context that Khamenei has come out and implicitly restated a variation of the fevered dream of driving all the jews into the sea meme.) Bibi’s minor mirror variation of the same is equally ugly – but that in itself hardly supports Nicholas’ ‘realism’ bullshit.
Realistic?
NFI.
Arky @ #83 Tuesday, October 10th, 2023 – 10:35 am
All true, I probably should have added; it doesn’t seem to be an actual winning electoral strategy. But they are about to win, according to polls, a significant right wing agenda item.
MAGA?
When they aren’t nihilistically wrecking the joint they feel The Rapture coming on.
There were some small signs of a drift in the Warrandyte bye-election that might have given Dutton some heart that the Plan was working. But will it ever be enough to offset the Teal seat losses?
@meher baba: The evangelicals have a religious thing about Israel. The core of Trump and Republican support is the evangelicals. Maybe supporting Israel might piss off a few hardcore anti-Semites among the MAGA faithful but it’s probably not going to hurt much. But Israel is literally an article of the faith for the evangelicals – it’s a non-negotiable for them.
Claiming that the Australian Senate is less gerrymandered than the US Senate is utter rubbish. I think the Senate should be abolished and completely agree with Keating – unrepresentative swill.
Albo does not look comfortable at the moment. It is always tough campaigning for a lost cause where one has to stay positive. It will interesting to see what type of speech he gives on Saturday night.
The trouble in Israel-Gaza is also not helping his mood too.
FUBAR @ #90 Tuesday, October 10th, 2023 – 10:42 am
Are you playing Political Cards Against Humanity? I just drew “Compulsory voting is anti-democratic, I wont vote even if you tell me to.” I’m hoping to draw “I’m not driving this car, I’m traveling”
Arky says:
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 at 10:23 am
‘…
The only realistic solution is perhaps the current generation of combatants to die off or leave the stage, no Hamas and no Netanyahu, and people committed to peace on both sides.
…’
————————————
I suspect that this is not how things work in reality.
Speaking from individual experience, each war generates a new wave of deep seated emotions. I still get deeply angry that the Japanese have locomotive C5631 all polished and splendid in the Yasukuni Shrine. Fuck them all for perpetuating this ‘vision’ of the horrors of the Burma Railroad.
The fear, loathing and hatred generated by this war (does it even have an agreed name yet?) will still be churning people’s stomachs a century from now. The next wave of Gazan and Israeli fighters willing to die for the cause will be among the kids cowering in the cellars in Gaza and Israel as we post.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) on Tuesday approved Origin Energy’s $18.7 billion takeover by Canada’s Brookfield and its US-based partner, EIG, opening a debate about shareholder value in the megadeal.
The ACCC announcement clears another hurdle in the giant Toronto-based asset manager’s plan to invest $20 billion in clean energy and storage in Australia, which it argues will help the energy transition.
Arky says:
….
That’s not a realistic solution, that’s the one-sided destruction of Israel and replacing it with an Arab state.
…
So Israel in not a secular democracy?
“So far the MAGA brigade, and MAGA-adjacent figures like Kevin McCarthy, seem to be falling over each other to demand that the US provide Israel with massive amounts of support, ”
so, they want to be seen to be doing something, anything……… 🙁
And are missing the fundamentals. The most basic of which i think is that the Israeli Govt has to accept that a “settlement” with Palestinians that can lead to lasting peace (whatever solution, 1 or 2 state …) WILL NOT be strictly in Israeli terms.
That’s political poison for the right wing of Israeli politics, but until their politics changes and accepts that, they have constant war to contend with.
What these Hamas attacks do, equivocally show is that in a state of constant war the Israeli Govt CANNOT protect its citizens.
The Israeli Govt have broken the implicit compact with the Israeli electorate (allow us to be bastard oppressors and we will protect you from personal consequences), and the reaction to that will play out in the mid term and it will not be pretty for Netanyahu and his cronies.
Lots of people who don’t deserve it die in the meantime though. 🙁
FUBAR ignores:
‘FUBAR says:
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 at 9:43 am
MABWM
“ Dutton’s LNP is essentially anti-democratic”
“That which can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. “ (Christopher Hitchens).’
————————————–
Good but unintentional point, FUBAR. The evidence is Dutton’s resort to a pattern of open and bare-faced lying.
Nothing subverts a democracy more than that. Nothing.
@Boer: Warrandyte is Liberal Party core territory, not sure what signs he could get there his plan is working. High income, low percentage of immigrants, high percentage of over 50s, lower percentage of voting-age young people than average. The average Warrandyte family is probably a white Australian-born 60 year old general manager with his white Australian-born professional wife in her 50s and their two teenage kids who can’t vote.
Arky
I am not sure either. The sweeping victory for Labor seemed to me to mask a backwards drift in the parts of the electorate that Dutton is seeking to harvest. William would have a better read on this.
I imagine the Fossil Cartel will be seeking to inveigle the US into destroying Iran’s oil infrastructure. If you think inflation is bad now, watch what happens if they succeed in getting that job done.