The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll gets a rare guernsey as a dedicated Poll Bludger post due to the need to keep an open thread somewhere near the top of the page, between the latest Indigenous Voice post and a forthcoming look at Saturday’s election in New Zealand. Labor leads 53-47 on the latest numbers, out from 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up half), Coalition 34% (down three-and-a-half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). The disparity between the movements on the former and latter measures suggest Labor got a weak respondent-allocated preference flow this time around – previous election preferences would have it at more like 54-46.
UPDATE: It appears YouGov federal polling will be a weekly event. As well as Indigenous Voice numbers featured in the relevant post, it latest numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation on 6%. Anthony Albanese’s net approval is at steady at minus 3%, while Peter Dutton has improved from minus 17% to minus 12%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Albanese’s lead shifting from 50-33 to 50-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519.
Also, the ‘No’ posters which have been chosen by the ‘No’ campaign to place outside of the polling places, say, ‘No to Division’ and have Warren Mundine and Jacinta Price, large as life on them.
Same guy was telling everyone who walked in, ‘You can’t put a tick or a cross in the box’. We were told not to talk to the ‘No’ people, but I had to go up to him and tell him that what he was saying was just plain wrong.
Interesting the liberals are not willing to claim their sucess.
Michaelia has the ocker (?) accent down to a t
The Nationals firmly maintaining their “respectful No” stance today. Thanks for your contribution guys
David Littleproud this morning even argued the Voice is unnecessary because of all the indigenous MPs in parliament. All 2 on the coalition side are doing fk all, up from 1 before the last election.
Unfortunately it would have to get them over two lines (the national vote and the majority of states) and that just seems a bridge too far. In hindsight, it probably always was.
hazza @ #804 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 3:27 pm
You’re in Perth, so you know which posh private school she went to. So it’s absolutely an affectation.
Boer
I understand William is using an algorithm taking into account the 2022 results
It’s funny, living in Vic but hailing from WA, I reckon eastern staters’ accents are slightly closer to a kiwi accent and overall slightly more proper-sounding than the west coast which is a bit more nasally. Or maybe it’s just that eastern states air of superiority!
Looking forward to getting back over summer for a customary stinking hot Christmas Day in Perth. My hometown is actually the little-known town of Esperance
Look on the bright side, even if Labor loses in NZ and the Voice goes down you’ll still have the Republican HoR Speaker omnishambles.
hazza says Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 3:41 pm
It’s where I was born, although we left when I was about 4. My sister and her family now live there.
Anyway, it’s a superb Saturday in Sydney, sunny, clear blue skies, gentle breezes, dry and 30°.
Lars:
Hooray?
No queue at my SW Sydney polling booth since morning.
C@tmomma says Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 3:33 pm
She grow up in Mt Lawley, which is inner city, but not posh. Her farther was an MLC and owned a construction company. She went to Iona Presentation College, a Catholic school, in Mosman Park (which is posh). She then went to Curtin University (BA), University of London (Honours Degree in Law)and UWA (Grad Dip in Legal Practice). At least that’s according to Wikipedia.
Well, finally got around to voting (had to wait for someone and go with them) and I was fortunate enough to get there at a quiet period (don’t know how busy the booth has been all day otherwise), so the process was over and done quickly. I said NO… …when the poll worker asked if I had voted already, then I took my ballot and voted Yes. 😛
Not that I think it really will change much but Yes dominated the signage in both design and number. There was one No poster that was “Vote No to getting rid of Australia Day” (or WTTE) – if the Yes side made such a mendacious claim, the collective sulking by the RWers would have been deafening.
There was one Yes volunteer and one No one. Nothing really special to report on that. The Yes volunteer was a little friendlier and more eager to engage but both were fine and neither rude or off-putting. All in all, it was a pretty simple experience.
Couldn’t read a “mood” but, even if I did, I don’t really think subjective anecdotes mean anything.
C@tmomma says:
You’re in Perth, so you know which posh private school she went to. So it’s absolutely an affectation.
______
Bill Shorten went to a very posh private school. So is his accent an affectation?
nath @ #818 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 4:15 pm
He has a speech impediment. And anyway, his accent, such as it is, is nowhere near as exaggerated as Michaelia Cash’s. But like I really care about your obsessive need to bring Bill Shorten into every 2nd conversation. 😐
It’s amusing that when a Liberal goes to a posh private school it’s a bad thing, but when a Labor member has been to a posh private school it’s really a positive and not a big deal at all. #stoogelogic
bc @ #816 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 4:08 pm
I lived in Perth for 15 years. Mt Lawley is Inner City Establishment posh. Some beautiful Californian Bungalows and Art Deco houses. Bleeding into the next suburb along, Floreat.
Iona, yep, posh. 🙂
Asha maybe not so much celebration but no-one beats the US Republicans for cray-cray.
nath @ #820 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 4:21 pm
I didn’t say that, at all. But you keep up your irrelevant comparisons, nath. And make it all about something it never was. 😐
Anyhoo, I’m back out to help the ‘Yes’ campaign. You keep counting your spoons, or whatever it is you do with your days, nath.
I lived in Perth for a while. I always though Mt Lawley was a bit of a shithole. But then again it was the 90s and I’m from Melbourne. So what might look like an interesting urban spot to people from Perth would probably look like a dump to me.
Bc
It’s a beautiful part of the world. Haven’t been back for coming up on two years. It’s basically a two day journey from interstate
Then again, perhaps it was the lack of trams. A lack of trams really cannot be compensated for. Trams embiggen even the most ignoble suburb.
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 1:21 pm
‘Steelydan says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 12:45 pm
Boerwar
Says a bus driver who drove the richest to see the best.
You do not know what is happening these days since you left 30 years ago, that is obvious from your comments.’
—————————-
I have demonstrated repeatedly that you have NFI about Indigenous history. And I mean NFI.
Other than that, stop trying to bullshit about my life experience. Again, you have NFI.
Perhaps it would be timely for you to actually personally reconsider why it is you are repeatedly telling huge lies about Indigenous history.
___________________________________________________________
I work with traditional Aboriginal people daily….you worse than zero, people from over a generation ago with the rest made up from the anthropologist zealot mates.
I could finish your sentences for you, straight from the 70’s and 80’s handbooks, I bet you you used wax lyrical about the rainbow serpent or is it spirit now….it keeps changing so much…with the best of them.
I suggest you reeducate on what it is really like now, talk to some front line workers, nurses, ambo officers and cops in the mentioned communities, throw in Alice Springs, Darwin, Broom and many others.
Fact- in the communities I mentioned- Every generation on Mother has done a worse job in their responsibilities of motherhood than the generation before, every Father/ Uncle has deteriorated even more so. From the 50’s until now.
When we went there were no other voters other than us. The ballot paper was such a simple proposition. I still can’t understand why people want to vote No.
Identification and voting took 2-3 minutes.
It is a Liberal party seat both at federal and state level. As I posted earlier there were no ‘No’ volunteers. Two Yes volunteers. All ‘Yes’ signages. I couldn’t find one ‘No’ signage.
Kos Samaras
@KosSamaras
Absence of No volunteers at polling places is stark. This was not a thing back in 1999. Presence at a polling places matters more than a general election. Yes volunteers will be converting undecided voters all day on places where No have arrogantly abandoned.
9:09 AM · Oct 14, 2023
1.4K
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Mavissays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 4:52 pm
Kos Samaras
@KosSamaras
Absence of No volunteers at polling places is stark. This was not a thing back in 1999. Presence at a polling places matters more than a general election. Yes volunteers will be converting undecided voters all day on places where No have arrogantly abandoned.
9:09 AM · Oct 14, 2023
1.4K
”
I hope Kos is right.
I hope I’m wrong and this turns into a good day.
News Hub from Kiwi land has started their election coverage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTD5O6EaDLs
Deafening GOP silence on Trump declaring presidents don’t have to support the Constitution
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/12/2198999/-Deafening-GOP-silence-on-Trump-declaring-presidents-don-t-have-to-support-the-Constitution?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Marcia Langton and Daniel James’s articles in The Saturday Paper (the site seems to be down at the moment) were quite sad to read. Both of them seem to have been hurt pretty deeply by the conduct of this campaign.
I voted last week, so I don’t know whether there are campaigners for either or both sides at local polling places today. Last week there was one of each. The “No” campaigner saw me and approached, saying “Say no to division”.
The “No” campaign seems to be well organised and well-funded. Maybe they are concentrating their resources on voting day, not bothering with Teal electorates, for example.
…
‘Steelydan says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 4:39 pm
Boerwarsays:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 1:21 pm
‘Steelydan says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 12:45 pm
Boerwar
Says a bus driver who drove the richest to see the best.
You do not know what is happening these days since you left 30 years ago, that is obvious from your comments.’
—————————-
I have demonstrated repeatedly that you have NFI about Indigenous history. And I mean NFI.
Other than that, stop trying to bullshit about my life experience. Again, you have NFI.
Perhaps it would be timely for you to actually personally reconsider why it is you are repeatedly telling huge lies about Indigenous history.
___________________________________________________________
I work with traditional Aboriginal people daily….you worse than zero, people from over a generation ago with the rest made up from the anthropologist zealot mates.
I could finish your sentences for you, straight from the 70’s and 80’s handbooks, I bet you you used wax lyrical about the rainbow serpent or is it spirit now….it keeps changing so much…with the best of them.
I suggest you reeducate on what it is really like now, talk to some front line workers, nurses, ambo officers and cops in the mentioned communities, throw in Alice Springs, Darwin, Broom and many others.
Fact- in the communities I mentioned- Every generation on Mother has done a worse job in their responsibilities of motherhood than the generation before, every Father/ Uncle has deteriorated even more so. From the 50’s until now.’
———————————————
Get back to me when you can find it in your honesty to acknowledge that the first generations in fact had the hardest time of all. Not the opposite as you seem to think.
Murphy is a bit late. We have had hundreds of posts from unctious so-called ‘Yes’ supporters offering free advice to Albanese and Labour on what they SHOULD have done and SHOULD be doing to ensure a Yes.
The plain fact of the matter is that one man held Yes in the palm of his hand.
And he pissed on that opportunity with lies, racist dog whistling and divisive politics instead.
It is not complicated.
The answer is, and was, Dutton.
It’s not everyone’s imagination. “No” campaigners are thin on the ground in Sydney and Melbourne. This is because the No side has flown hundreds of volunteers from the major cities to polling booths in key states of Tasmania and South Australia.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-voice-referendum-live-updates-australians-head-to-polls-across-the-nation-to-vote-on-indigenous-constitutional-recognition-20231013-p5ec4w.html?post=p55ba4#
NZ: With 12.3% of the votes counted, the centre-right National party is ahead.
National’s projected seats are 51.
Labour’s projected seats are 33.
National 40.72%
Labour 26.28%
Green Party 10.78%
Act 9.30%
New Zealand First 6.23%
Te Pāti Māori 2.31%
I voted Yes in Redneck Wonderland (AKA Coffs Harbour) and was pleasantly surprised by the cheerful atmosphere, smiles from the many visible Yes campaigners and sole (and largely shunned) representative of the Irrelevant Spivs. It’s Time.
re comments on scarcity of No volunteers, does this, from SMH on line this afternoon explain it?
Yes estimated 70,000 people would don its T-shirts on Saturday, compared to No’s expected 25,000. But the discrepancy is likely to be particularly stark in Sydney and Melbourne.
This is because the No side has flown hundreds of volunteers from the major cities to polling booths in key states of Tasmania and South Australia.
For months, the No side has placed a far greater emphasis on winning these smaller states.
With the No side well ahead in the more conservative states of Queensland and WA, No only needs to secure one additional state to block the Yes camp from securing a majority of the states, as required to win a referendum.
And there it is!
We will very shortly have confirmed the monarchy in 1999 and endorsed our genocide in 2023.
And we will hide behind ‘not enough information’
The exact opposite to what happened in 1999.
This is on you Dutts. Thanks for making this a divisive gaping wound when you could have made it a great day for all of us. Thanks!
Rex Douglas @ Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 11:13 am
I expect YES to do better than the polling indicates, but a win for YES would seem unlikely, no matter how much I would like it.
If anyone has noticed my recent absence from PB, it is because my wife has been in hospital for a considerable period of the time. Thankfully, they let her out today to vote.
PTA
Best wishes to you and your wife. There are several Bludgers struggling with severe health issues, ATM.
79% no first 4 booths
For those who were getting their Ukraine War feed off Enough Already, the latest phase in the fighting involves a switch from Russia being on the defensive to Russia being on the offensive.
I have little real idea of the significance of the tilt.
Peta Credlin calling for Indigenous people to take responsibility for their lives. Then talks over Indigenous person on panel.
I went to the second polling booth in our area. Like the first one, this booth also has no ‘No’ posters and no ‘No’ volunteers. Only Yes Volunteers and signages.