The weekly Roy Morgan federal poll gets a rare guernsey as a dedicated Poll Bludger post due to the need to keep an open thread somewhere near the top of the page, between the latest Indigenous Voice post and a forthcoming look at Saturday’s election in New Zealand. Labor leads 53-47 on the latest numbers, out from 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up half), Coalition 34% (down three-and-a-half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). The disparity between the movements on the former and latter measures suggest Labor got a weak respondent-allocated preference flow this time around – previous election preferences would have it at more like 54-46.
UPDATE: It appears YouGov federal polling will be a weekly event. As well as Indigenous Voice numbers featured in the relevant post, it latest numbers have Labor’s two-party lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation on 6%. Anthony Albanese’s net approval is at steady at minus 3%, while Peter Dutton has improved from minus 17% to minus 12%. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Albanese’s lead shifting from 50-33 to 50-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519.
If you don’t know, attend a polling centre, get your name marked off and collect a ballot paper to avoid a fine, put the blank ballot in the box and go home.
My early vote in Camberwell yesterday seemed to feature a (slightly) wider variety of people canvassing for No than described above – about 50/50 with the people handing out for Yes (who were mainly middle aged Anglo women)
– Several middle aged women, a couple of them of East Asian heritage,
– One spry grandfatherly type, with a more benign countenance than …
– The Cooker from central casting – much of his regalia was recycled from the anti-vax demos of 2021, with a few updates to reflect the issue-du-jour.
– Many of the No HTV people had indentical black tops on, pointing to the level of organization and funding of this campaign behind the scenes.
The queue (over 50 metres) shuffled along steadily with voters more intent on avoiding the passing showers, and any wishes to be left alone being respected by all. The cooker guy seemed more interested in chatting about the servicing costs for his car with anyone who engaged him. Though in the leafy eastern suburbs we are more adept at avoiding uncomfortable topics 🙂
Oh doGs……. Cash on ABC24 playing politics…while accusing Albo of being divisive.
She really is a foul brand of bottom dweller.
Voting “Yes” is better.
‘meher baba says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 8:55 am
BW: “There is one person in Australia who could probably have helped carry the Voice by showing vision, courage, empathy and strength.
Instead he embodied malice, racism, negativity and lies.
Dutton.
He will carry that can for the rest of the his life and in history.”
Totally agree that Dutton has been appalling. But….’
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There is no ‘but’.
Dutton embodied malice, racism, negativity and lies. He owns No.
Pueo
Have faith. Believe. Here you go.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2xPx8Mq65Rg
little proud made it difficult for dutton toback the voice when he came out straight away and anowsed the nationals would apose the voice maybi appointing leecer was a way of dutton singnaling he was willing to seport it it
When the LNP gets a leader who supports The Voice we should have another referendum. I don’t see why one failed attempt should mean that we don’t revisit the matter ever again.
‘Nicholas says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 12:26 pm
When the LNP gets a leader who supports The Voice we should have another referendum. I don’t see why one failed attempt should mean that we don’t revisit the matter ever again.’
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NFI
There is a polling place where I go to the gym. I didn’t see a No HTVer this morning and both Tanya Plibersek and Clover Moore were there handing out for Yes. The CEO of the organisation was on the grill for the good ol’ democracy sausage, who surprisingly said the mood in the Shire where he lives was Yes. I took that with a very large grain of salt.
Shadow attorney general Michaelia Cash says Albanese has divided the nation
_______
Yes, she is such a paragon of decency and unity.
Voted this morning at my local booth. The queue was only a few minutes long. There was one person handing out HTV cards for Dutton’s Rascist Dickheads and a couple for the Yes camp.
Petitioning for a voice is not a novel idea:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-voice-to-parliament-is-nothing-new-it-was-first-sought-86-years-ago-20231010-p5eb68.html
Boerwar
Says a bus driver who drove the richest to see the best.
You do not know what is happening these days since you left 30 years ago, that is obvious from your comments.
“Have faith. Believe. Here you go.”
Thank you SA. 🙂
Just over five-six hours to go (twenty if you’re in WA.) Let the excuses begin!
Personally, if No wins, I blame the influence of SPECTRE!
fess
We voted in the same place! Had a chat with the CEO as well.
mimhoff:
I early voted elsewhere but went to NCIE for a workout.
It was a great vibe. Tanya was being interviewed by a TV crew.
Since mention of the ME war has been embargoed, it’s interesting to note that former posters are returning to this blog. Another reason for their return though is likely based on the referendum. In either event, the moderator’s decision was sound, with the result that this is a more pleasant place to visit. Are you still lurking at FS?
I find inner peace in knowing I am not with Dutton, Hanson, Palmer, Nazis, racists, bigots and people who don’t know what day it is.
I heard Antony Green saying that in referendums the rural votes are counted first. So expect tonight to start badly with a high No vote.
Boerwar:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 12:19 pm
There’s always a “but” with meher. He likes to straddle the fence.
‘Steelydan says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 12:45 pm
Boerwar
Says a bus driver who drove the richest to see the best.
You do not know what is happening these days since you left 30 years ago, that is obvious from your comments.’
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I have demonstrated repeatedly that you have NFI about Indigenous history. And I mean NFI.
Other than that, stop trying to bullshit about my life experience. Again, you have NFI.
Perhaps it would be timely for you to actually personally reconsider why it is you are repeatedly telling huge lies about Indigenous history.
William, according to Ghostie there was a Newspoll out yesterday … is there a separate thread for that? Or was that the YouGov?
Just got back from the polling place. There weren’t any NO people but 3 very nice YES people out front.
The only road to victory for Yes is TAS, VIC, S.A and NSW. But it won’t get there.
Maybe TAS and VIC to go YES. That’s about it.
Actually, the Newspoll numbers are different so seems not.
Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 54 (+1) L/NP 46 (-1)
Preferred PM: Albanese 51 (+1) Dutton 31 (-2)
Federal Primary Votes: ALP 36 (+2) L/NP 35 (-1) GRN 12 (0) ON 6 (+1) #auspol
Where are the black uniformed NO HTV volunteers being spotted? It is being mentioned on the socials that there is a very low NO HTV volunteer turnout in NSW. Is that true?
I love how people declare the outcome … with little to no evidence except for the local vibe or polls.
It is a generally held opinion that younger voters are rarely polled.
Who knows whether that is true or not, but it does give me hope — given the older, angry generation often tend to grow more ‘conservative and fearful’ as they age — present company not included in that!!
The day of reckoning is here!
Are we ready to right past wrongs or are we just a bunch of see you next Tuesdays?
Antony will tell us, at about 6.45pm tonight.
Hopefully the noes forget to vote!
– Aunty
It wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that Littleproud was first off the blocks to slap an emphatic “No” on the referendum, without first even bothering to consider the “Yes” case. And he has the temerity to blame Albanese. Real leaders are a rare breed in the Country Party; you’d have to go back to “Black Jack” to find one.
Back from the front lines. More enthusiastic support for ‘Yes’ than I expected. Back later on this afternoon to scrutineer the vote count. Should be done quickly and efficiently because the AEC Supervisor at the polling place is an ex-headmistress. 😀
I have eaten too many cakes and slices from the Primary School cake stall. 😆
Griff @ #422 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 1:31 pm
We had 4. Maybe because our area is full of wealthy self-funded retirees. 😐
Some comments on the Yes/No Referendum.
I don’t think that the majority of No voters are some sort of bigots. Most of them want to give some form of assistance to First Nations people, but consider the Voice being put in the Constitution, is not the right way to do it.
At my local shopping mall this week, a group of No supporters set up. It was not just that the vast majority of people passing ignored them, they diverted away from them, in other words, they shunned them.
At the polling place where I voted this morning (selected because of their excellent democracy sausages), the Yes supporters were all set up, but there were not any No supporters.
Later, when I dropped my son off to vote, there were Yes and No supporters set up, but far more people took the Yes handout.
As I am in a Teal electorate, I guess this is to be expected, but we will know tonight who comes out in front. From my above observations though, the resulted could be closer than the Pollsters have predicted. Here’s hoping.
I didn’t know ME war comments were embargoed, so my apologies. Although mine was not picking a side, rather a call for the opposite.
Back from Yes handing out. Two of us, all morning. Just one now. Very few punters after lunch.
One ‘NO’ guy, who was a sad case.
People mostly either took both or neither. Not possible to gauge outcome. The good side won this booth last year, by about 6%. We shall see.
Something to calm the jangled nerves, the story of how Bridge over Troubled Water was written.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uZgcz_WlAA
Might play it later tonight.
Issues across the Tasman with their electronic rolls.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-general-election-2023-online-enrolment-system-down-causing-issues-at-some-voting-booths/AFR6R2JECJHKXKIGZU5WKQMUKU/
ABC: “Peter Dutton isn’t expected to front the media today”
Why not? Did he finally become capable of feeling shame?
Mr 31% is just a cowardly waste of space.
It will be interesting to see the vote at some of the rural booths with predominant black populations.
I will be looking at Purfleet in Lyne which is now self managed but was formerly a mission. At Federal elections, Purfleet usually goes 55% 2PP Nationals.
I am in hospital and not having a good time. Knee replacement Monday led to a very fast heart rate and a couple of days in ICU. Slowly coming good but not pleasant. Luckily yes postal votes already lodged for both of us.
laughtong
Best wishes for a speedy recovery. Good on you with the yes vote.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 2:39 pm
It will be interesting to see the vote at some of the rural booths with predominant black populations.
I will be looking at Purfleet in Lyne which is now self managed but was formerly a mission. At Federal elections, Purfleet usually goes 55% 2PP Nationals.’
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I imagine that there will be a lot of sifting and sorting to try and work out who voted how.
Rest up laughtong. Glad it happened there at least.
Wishing you a speedy recovery, laughtong!
Voted early in Chapman, ACT. Nil NO hander outers but seven or eight YES, including an exceptionally attractive young woman who got the attention of the several tradies and such in the queue. Then picked up a couple of car loads of elderly to take them to vote in Kambah. Three very sinister looking NO men dressed all in black, redolent of would be Proud Boys. Several YES advocates ranging from teenagers to retirees. Excellent Democracy Sausages available at both stations.
Different story in NSW Redneck Central. I took my sister to vote and she is a unapologetic racist NO voter. She was at the right station, four black uniformed NO advocates versus the local school teacher for YES.
hazza @ #432 Saturday, October 14th, 2023 – 2:27 pm
Michaelia Cash has been out instead. I couldn’t listen to her exaggerated pronunciation.
Thanks to everyone pushing the Yes case at the booths today for your efforts. Wish I could have done the same. In my electorate of Ryan, we’ve seen the rather unprecedented case of Labor and Greens members working harmoniously together to ensure all the booths in the area are manned.
All the best laughtong, take care of yourself.
I forgot to mention that one of the ‘No’ guys on this morning brought a bluetooth speaker with him, and apparently the ‘No’ campaign have a song as well. So, on repeat, endlessly, was, ‘I am, You are, We are Australian’. 🙄