For the sake of getting a new morning-after thread under way, a reiteration of the two sets of voting intention numbers that came through in the murk late last week:
• There was a bonus Newspoll result in The Australian less than a fortnight after the last, showing Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 36% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (up one). Anthony Albanese was up one on approval to 46% and steady on disapproval at 46%, while Peter Dutton was down two to 35% and up three to 53%. Albanese led 51-31 as preferred prime minister, out from 50-33. The poll was conducted October 4 to 12, overlapping the previous polling period from October 3 to 6, from an expanded sample of 2638.
• What looks to be the second instalment of a weekly polling series from YouGov (which I will incorporate into BludgerTrack when it gets a few more runs on the board) had Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation on 6%. Anthony Albanese’s net approval was steady at minus 3%, while Peter Dutton improved from minus 17% to minus 12%. Preferred prime minister was little changed, Albanese’s lead shifting from 50-33 to 50-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519.
Hey michael.
the anti renewables brigade will stop laughing about “Bowen’s energy policy garbage” if there is a drop is retail electricity prices next year. These things lag by about a year and there has already been talk after low wholesale prices in the last quarter, of a drop next year.
What goes up must come down….
Thanks Steve & others for sorting the 2PP calculations. Looks like Morgan has got it pretty close. I don’t think either side is really going to get a bounce out of the referendum result, more likely they will both return to bread and butter issues. In Parliament today, the LNP were poking Albo with questions about treaty and makaratta. Albo brushed it off by saying that decisions will be made after the “week of mourning” when he sits down with Aboriginal leaders. Skynews then distorted this on their evening programs with the line “PM refuses to rule in/rule out etc etc,” & “PM didn’t listen to the message from the public”, and then “PM wants to shove Makaratta down your throat”. I think Albo is just trying to show a bit of respect but unfortunately our politics is getting pretty toxic. With regards to comments made about community radio, I think you’ll find a lot are funded by religious groups.
Israel Poll 18hrs ago..
Respondents were asked who they would prefer to see as prime minister after the war, “Netanyahu or someone else.” Two-thirds chose someone else, anyone else, without even knowing who it would be. That was more than three times the number who chose Netanyahu (just 21 percent).
Sceptic @ #1202 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 9:50 pm
I’d be interested to know what the % of the Israeli population is Ultra Orthodox and how that correlates with support for Netanyahu? He’s given them everything on a plate.
A big thing I’ve noticed and am kind of worried about is that the Coalition seems to now be fixated on a “Great Big Audit” about everything related to indigenous people as their main policy.
Knowing how they are lately, I presume that means “We’re looking however we can to cut spending towards indigenous people, because that has proven to be electorally effective, and everyone left behind can just learn to pull up their bootstraps.”
BK @ #1155 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 5:37 pm
Friends in high places, more likely.
Sceptic @ #1203 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 9:50 pm
I can’t help wondering whether if had they had instead asked Israelis “who they would prefer to see as prime minister during the war” then Netanyahu might not have come out on top 🙁
I think Albo is just trying to show a bit of respect but unfortunately our politics is getting pretty toxic.
You can say that again! This was also Projection Pete today:
Dutton sharply criticised the prospect of a national treaty with Indigenous Australians as something that “goes on for between 20 and 30 years” and in question time demanded the prime minister “inform the house whether or not he remains committed to a treaty and truth-telling”?
“We’re talking about tens of billions of dollars and a continuation of the division that he’s [Albanese] created out of the referendum,” Dutton told Channel Seven’s Sunrise program.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-won-t-look-back-on-yes-campaign-but-hamstrung-on-next-steps-20231017-p5ecx5.html
There has been no federal government in recent times who wasted ‘tens of billions of dollars’, like the former Morrison Coalition government did.
Kirsdarke @ #1204 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 9:55 pm
So, how about the federal Labor government start with an audit of the Morrison government?
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, October 17, 2023 at 10:01 pm
I think that would be delightful if that happened. It’s not like Morrison’s government was in any way trustworthy in the first place for such an inquiry to not happen.
And you can be sure that the next Coalition government would be chomping at the bit to do another Royal Commission against everything they hated about the previous Labor government anyway. So might as well give them a taste of their own medicine.
Kirsdarke,
I get that Anthony Albanese wants to set a better example than that of the previous government, but boy, do the Coalition need a taste of their own medicine every now and again, I reckon!
Re the suggestion of a two referendum thing for the Republic (first to say yes or no, if yes then to select the model) that was I remember a popular suggestion for how the Republic ref “should” have been run but has major drawbacks.
1. The cost.
2. More critically, as I think it was Wat Tyler who already pointed out, the constitution doesn’t allow for preferential referendums. You have to vote Yes or No to a particular proposal. So you could only put up one model at a time to a referendum, reasonably. And the first stage, saying yes to a Republic without any specific law change to put into the constitution, would just be a non binding plebiscite anyway.
It has to be done as one fell swoop, picking the Republic model which EXTENSIVE public testing has identified as the one with greatest public support, or not at all.
The latest on the race to be the Republican Speaker of the House in the US:
https://www.semafor.com/article/10/17/2023/jim-jordans-opponents-are-falling-in-line-as-speaker-vote-nears
Australia will never become a republic under the current constitution.
1) Our constitution is almost impossible to change.
2)We are a bunch of dumb grommets.
God save the Queen, and do carry on with the genocide! (That we just endorsed 60/40!)
And to all the non-racist don’t hurt our feelings racists: Own your narrow minded lazy selfish bigotry and person up! All of you.
Keeping the identities of people charged of crimes public is essential to avoid a slippery slope to secret trials where people disappear. Despite the complications of individual cases, a transparent justice system is paramount.
I once looked up my name on a posted list outside a court house to see where my drunk and disorderly case was to be held and at what time.
Magistrate: How do you plead?
Me: Guilty Your Honour.
Then the prosecuting cop starts reading out the arresting cops statement.
When I looked back at the magistrate, she, having noticed my incredulous look , asked if that was not what had happened.
I explained that the mate I was with had an outstanding $20 fine for weed possession and they locked us both up so we couldn’t warn our house before it got raided. (A request for a phone call was met with the response that I had been watching too much tv).
Magistrate: Then why have you pleaded guilty?
Me: It’s only a ten dollar fine and who’s going to believe me over the police?
Magistrate: I will not accept your guilty plea.
She set a trial date but it never happened because I got a letter from the police saying they had dropped the charges.
One of many stories about cops.
I hate cops and am very glad my name was on a public list outside a court house.
C@t, I think it was on The Hill website they were suggesting that many have promised to vote for Jordan but only in the first round. If he fails that, all cards are back on the table. I reckon that might mean a phoenix.
Forgot to mention that when I complained they moved me from a barred cell to one with a solid steel door. When I started banging on the door demanding my phone call, a huge plain clothed goon came in and threatened to beat the shit out of me with a phone book.
Did I mention I hate cops?
“A big thing I’ve noticed and am kind of worried about is that the Coalition seems to now be fixated on a “Great Big Audit” about everything related to indigenous people as their main policy.”
Predictable, as I said beforehand. The logical endpoint of their campaign is the end of Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations.
There was a lot more riding on the referendum than just the Voice.
Watching the cricket now one of the commentators sounds like Tony Burke.
“Predictable, as I said beforehand. The logical endpoint of their campaign is the end of Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations.”
They will trott out Price in the election campaign to shield them when they “defund all aboriginal organisations and bring in the army to Alice Springs” becomes their only policy positions.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, October 17, 2023 at 9:54 pm
Sceptic @ #1202 Tuesday, October 17th, 2023 – 9:50 pm
Israel Poll 18hrs ago..
Respondents were asked who they would prefer to see as prime minister after the war, “Netanyahu or someone else.” Two-thirds chose someone else, anyone else, without even knowing who it would be. That was more than three times the number who chose Netanyahu (just 21 percent).
I’d be interested to know what the % of the Israeli population is Ultra Orthodox and how that correlates with support for Netanyahu? He’s given them everything on a plate.
———————————-
C@T
Ballpark about 13% of the population.
Two hundred House Republicans voted in favor of Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the Republican nominee for Speaker, 17 votes short of the majority needed to win the speakership.
A guys gotta make a living…
Middle East War Adds to Surge in International Arms Sales
Israel’s conflict with Hamas, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of China have brought a boom for weapons makers and a chance for Washington to build closer military ties to other countries.
Cronus @ #1220 Wednesday, October 18th, 2023 – 5:34 am
Thanks, Cronus. So, broadly correlative. Throw in a few secular, ‘Always Bibi’, and that gets you to 21%. 🙂
Cronus @ #1212 Wednesday, October 18th, 2023 – 6:09 am
I’d be getting any promises he makes to the holdouts in writing. On a Stat Dec. Signed in his blood! 😀
Lol. Gym Jordan wore a coat. 😆
If we do have an audit, it’s scope should be expanded to examine all the various privatised programs designed to
punishthe unemployed and other welfare recipients.New thread.
Fernando @ 5.14pm
The problem with your solution to Indigenous recognition, is your solution.
Not all Indigenous Australians inhabit the Northern Territory.
It is disingenuous to suggest that the recognition of Indigenous Australians can be solved by Parliament creating “Indigenous Seats” and thus making a larger parliamentary chamber.
The Northern Territory currently has two HOR seats.
Technically, as per the Australian Constitution, it is entitled to one.
It is through an arrangement between the ALP & the CLP, by representation to the AEC, that two seats, for the NT, are maintained.
I shall leave it to our resident constitutional lawyers on this site to note all of the specific reasons why your proposal would be invalid.