Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor; YouGov: 53-47 (open thread)

Right to the last, polling that proved accurate about the Indigenous Voice finds the Coalition still failing to crack Labor’s lead.

For the sake of getting a new morning-after thread under way, a reiteration of the two sets of voting intention numbers that came through in the murk late last week:

• There was a bonus Newspoll result in The Australian less than a fortnight after the last, showing Labor’s lead out from 53-47 to 54-46 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 36% (up two), Coalition 35% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 6% (up one). Anthony Albanese was up one on approval to 46% and steady on disapproval at 46%, while Peter Dutton was down two to 35% and up three to 53%. Albanese led 51-31 as preferred prime minister, out from 50-33. The poll was conducted October 4 to 12, overlapping the previous polling period from October 3 to 6, from an expanded sample of 2638.

• What looks to be the second instalment of a weekly polling series from YouGov (which I will incorporate into BludgerTrack when it gets a few more runs on the board) had Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, from primary votes of Labor 33% (steady), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation on 6%. Anthony Albanese’s net approval was steady at minus 3%, while Peter Dutton improved from minus 17% to minus 12%. Preferred prime minister was little changed, Albanese’s lead shifting from 50-33 to 50-34. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,228 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor; YouGov: 53-47 (open thread)”

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  1. As Mr Bowe said we can’t comment negatively about anyone on the referendum thread, sorry guys, but this condescending comment from our new Australian MAGA-adjacent Conservative deserves a reply:

    FUBAR @ #557 Sunday, October 15th, 2023 – 1:34 am

    A good night in the Antipodes – both Australian and New Zealand voters gave the the tin-eared arrogant elitist lefties a good whack.

    Just bringing in Trumpist characterisations like ‘elitist’ as a catch-all condemnation for people with a heart connected to their brain, plus a glorification of the ignorant as some sort of Everyman godhead, puts you exactly in the Right camp of those who believe brainwashing works. Congratulations. Enjoy your new voting demographic. For as long as it takes them to wake up to the fact that you guys pulling their strings are frauds. Using them as tools for your own sinister advancement politically. So that they, in ‘coal country’ or wherever you have them breaking their backs for a few pieces of silver, can facilitate you creaming the big bikkies off the top.

    We see you. So does the rest of Australia.
    #54-46

  2. gollsays:
    Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 6:40 am
    The good news is that 2/5 voters wanted the Voice to “get up”.

    The other good years is that the Liberals have lost the their “teal” seats forever.

    Otherwise the result is a domestic and international embarrassment.

    The adage, “put off today whenever you can” remains a truism in the British Colony of Boganville, the land of plenty (of delusion, inequality and racism), with an education budget that can be reduced considerably because enlightenment and common sense are omitted from the curriculum.

    What a sad day for a nation that is a reality show displaying a lack of intellectual grandeur on a scale beyond imagination.

    “What goes around comes around”

    Bah, what would history know.

    Thanks for the goodwill of the First Australians for tolerating the “bogans”

  4. World News and Political roundup:

    NATO’s Stoltenberg says Turkiye agrees to move ahead with Sweden’s NATO bid: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231013-natos-stoltenberg-says-turkiye-agrees-to-move-ahead-with-swedens-nato-bid/
    Biden says addressing the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza is a priority: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/biden-says-addressing-the-growing-humanitarian-crisis-in-gaza-is-a-priority
    Erdogan tells Saudi crown prince Turkey working to send aid to civilians hit by Israel-Hamas conflict: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-tells-saudi-crown-prince-turkey-working-send-aid-civilians-hit-by-israel-2023-10-11/
    New Zealand abandons Labour and shifts to the right as country votes for wholesale change: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/14/new-zealand-election-2023-results-national-party-labour-
    Japan decides to strip Unification Church’s religious corporation status: https://japantoday.com/category/national/Japan-decides-to-strip-Unification-Church%27s-religious-corporation-status
    Blinken warned lawmakers Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in coming weeks: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/blinken-warned-lawmakers-azerbaijan-may-invade-armenia-in-coming-weeks-00121500
    15,000 visitors were evacuated from the Louvre in Paris after the museum received a threat: https://www.insider.com/louvre-museum-paris-evacuates-visitors-after-threat-2023-10
    NYPD says there are no specific threats to NYC, puts all officers in uniform as precaution: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nypd-says-there-are-no-specific-threats-to-nyc-puts-all-officers-in-uniform-as-precaution/4763568/
    Stanford suspends teacher after reportedly calling Jewish students colonizers, downplaying Holocaust: https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/stanford-suspends-instructor-reportedly-called-jewish-students-colonizers-downplayed-holocaust/
    Lawsuit to block New York’s ban on gas stoves is filed by gas and construction groups: https://apnews.com/article/gas-stove-ban-new-york-lawsuit-climate-1cdb46211813bd0275b1d4a162817f3e
    Mike Pence Heckled by Man Claiming to Be His Lover: https://www.thedailybeast.com/mike-pence-heckled-by-man-claiming-to-be-his-lover?ref=wrap
    Trump just reminded the world why he’s a walking national security risk: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-hezbollah-comments-israel-hamas-national-security-rcna120336
    DOJ sues eBay for selling ‘rolling coal’ devices; fines could hit $2 billion: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/doj-sues-ebay-for-rolling-coal-devices-fines-could-hit-2-billion.html
    US House Republicans Had Their Phones Confiscated to Stop Leaks: https://www.wired.com/story/us-house-phones-confiscated/
    RFK Jr, Fox News’ useful idiot: https://www.independent.co.uk/us/voices/rfk-jr-fox-news-2024-election-b2429503.html
    Jim Jordan Speaker Bid Shows GOP in ‘Complete Chaos’: Ex-Republican Staffer: https://www.newsweek.com/tara-setmayer-republican-party-complete-chaos-jim-jordan-speaker-bid-1834771
    Descendants of Holocaust survivors protesting Israel’s ‘genocide’ of Palestinians among those arrested in front of Sen. Chuck Schumer’s house in New York: https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-pro-palestinian-arrests-descendants-holocaust-gaza-ceasefire-schumer-brooklyn-2023-10

  6. The independent senator David Pocock has joined a push by the Greens and unions to criminalise the intentional non-payment of superannuation, after the measure was omitted from Labor’s industrial relations bill. The Albanese government’s legislation has proposed to criminalise wage theft but not super theft, which is estimated to cost workers up to $5bn a year, and Pocock said if the government is “serious about closing loopholes then the intentional non-payment of super should also be criminalised”.
    It comes after Guardian Australia revealed in September that the Australian Taxation Office has never used its indirect criminal penalties to punish non-payment of super. The powers require the ATO to first issue a direction to pay super, the failure to comply with which is a crime. The tax office has never issued a direction to pay, but uses non-criminal penalties to recover hundreds of millions of dollars of super a year.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/15/david-pocock-joins-greens-in-push-to-criminalise-non-payment-of-super

  7. Re the distinction between voting intention polls and the Voice polling/referendum result.

    There are two main types of Australians who vote for the main parties of the left (ie, the ALP and the Greens: I put the Teals in a slightly different category).

    1. Lower income people who vote that way (mostly ALP) largely out of self-interest: because they believe that a left government will provide them with higher levels of income support and better services (Medicare, NDIS, state school education for their kids, etc.)
    2. Affluent people who vote for the ALP or, increasingly, the Greens out of a sense of altruism, even though some left policies might disadvantage them personally through higher taxes or tighter means tests for government services.

    I think people in group 2 often don’t fully appreciate the cultural gap between themselves and group 1. Last night provided a stark demonstration of that gap. For instance, the results from southern Tasmania show a massive No vote in booths in the less affluent areas that are typically the staunchest Labor booths: Bridgewater 75% No, Bridgewater North 69% No, Gagebrook 74% No, Risdon Vale 66% No, Rokeby 59% No, Chigwell 63% No, etc.

    There is a growing non-Anglo population in these areas but, on the whole, they are predominantly Anglo-Celt working class: people whose grandparents worked in factories or perhaps for the Hydro and who (now that the factories are mostly gone and the Hydro uses more machinery than people) themselves either work in the service sector or are long-term unemployed. The main form of Indigeneity that they are familiar with is that of the Tasmanian Aborigines, whom many of them consider to be people who are fundamentally no different to themselves but who have found themselves a nice little earner on the basis of having a smidgeon of Indigenous ancestry.

    These people didn’t buy into the Voice. But, if an opinion pollster asks them how they are going to vote in the next Federal or State election, they are going to say “Labor” for at least as long as they believe they will personally benefit from Labor being in office.

    I suspect that the views of these Anglo-Celt people are not dissimilar to those of many migrant groups living in the same parts of our cities, although the latter are probably more socially conservative.

    Anyway, my point is that yesterday’s referendum, like the Republic one of 1999, has served to highlight the cultural gap between affluent lefties and what might be called “traditional” Labor voters who are less well off. And such events tend to have a deleterious psychological impact on affluent lefties (among whom I would still number myself, even though I’m more conservative than most of you). It takes me all the way back to the devastating 43-57 result in the 1975 election and the equally disappointing result in 1977.

    And it demonstrates yet again that Bob Hawke understood what was required better than anyone else: if Labor wants to succeed in Australia, it needs to take the ordinary people from the suburbs along with it.

  8. There should also be easier paths for the ATO to recover unpaid super, which it pays under the guarantee, from company directors.

  11. (Noel) Pearson last year said that it wouldn’t take much “to mobilise antipathy against Aboriginal people and conjure the worst imaginings about us and the recognition we seek”.

    Australia’s Indigenous were, he said, a “much unloved people”. And “for those who wish to oppose our recognition it will be like shooting fish in a barrel. An inane thing to do but easy. A heartless thing to do but easy.”

    His premonition was, unfortunately, correct. But the fish that were being shot at were not Aboriginal people. They were the millions of Australian voters. And the bullets were misinformation, scare campaigns, fears and doubts, smears and conspiracies.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-shouldn-t-feel-ashamed-but-we-could-be-forgiven-for-being-embarrassed-20231011-p5ebkz.html

  12. ‘We see you, Peter Dutton. We know what you did.’

    A lot will be written over the coming days and weeks about the impact of misinformation, the role of social media, the weight of issues diverting the voting public from focusing on the simple proposition in question at this referendum. There will be verdicts delivered on whether or not the “yes” campaign’s strategy and execution were sufficient to withstand the predictable onslaught of negativity.

    This analysis is important. It will form the first draft of history about this campaign.

    But the political analyst Peter Brent made a cut through point in a piece about the referendum he wrote for Inside Story this week. History tells us “midterm Labor government referendums get slaughtered”, Brent said, “partly because Liberal opposition is all but inevitable.”

    People voted no in large numbers for a bunch of reasons. They didn’t vote no because Peter Dutton told them to. Progressive people voted no. Some rusted-on Liberals voted yes. But Dutton’s decision to say no, and help flood the zone with shit, was certainly part of the reason public support for the voice tanked.

    I want to be very clear about this.

    We see you Peter Dutton. We know what you did.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2023/oct/14/albanese-wanted-to-end-two-centuries-of-silence-but-we-said-no-and-failed-our-first-nations-people

  13. BK: “The prime minister thought that with the voice he could bend the country towards progress without breaking it. Peter Dutton made sure he couldn’t.”Katharine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2023/oct/14/albanese-wanted-to-end-two-centuries-of-silence-but-we-said-no-and-failed-our-first-nations-people

    After poring through the booth results in the parts of Australia with which I am most familiar, I remain unconvinced that, if the Libs under Dutton had backed the Voice, the result would have been particularly different.

    Affluent areas of the major cities where the Libs have been traditionally strong did well for Yes. The rural areas went solidly No: even the booths in the towns that usually do well for Labor. But rural people tend to vote No in referendums regardless of what leading Liberals might say: they didn’t listen to Costello in 1999 and they didn’t listen to Fraser back in 1977.

    And the traditional Labor electorates were mostly pretty bad: with the major exception, as someone posted last night, of Cunningham and Newcastle in NSW (which probably says more about demographic trends in those areas than anywhere else.).

    So my preliminary conclusion is that traditional Labor voters were the key to the referendum’s defeat. They were not swayed by their own party’s position, nor that of the major sporting bodies and the big companies for whom many of them work. So why would they have listened to the leader of the Liberal Party: a political party that they despise?

  14. Axios reports that Iran sent a message to Israel via the UN stressing that it does not want further escalation in the Hamas-Israel war, but that Iran will have to intervene if the Israeli operation in Gaza continues.

  15. meher baba,
    Your apologia for the referendum result, by trying to pin it on ‘traditional Labor voters’ for the outcome, and excusing Peter Dutton for any blame, glosses over the fact that, as Katherine Murphy correctly identifies, he was the major domo who orchestrated the ‘No’ campaign and oversaw ‘flooding the zone with shit’. Most especially, the social media zone.

    One thing you fail to point out about these, ‘traditional Labor voters’, is what Redbridge noticed. Their lack of education. And the strategists around the Authoritarian-In-Waiting, Peter Dutton, know this. They know how easy it has become to ‘flood the zone’ and the brains of the poorly-educated, with social media shit. It works. Like giving candy to a baby.

    So, none of your seemingly reasonable attempts to make us look away from this fact are going to work here. Well, not with me, anyway.

    I know where the focus should be.

  16. Katherine Murphy interspersing her usual meandering writing technique with a bit of bravado.

    Real bravery would be for her to advocate a legislated voice and the staring down of Dutton in parliament.

  18. I thought Newspoll would be around 52-48 now. With an 8pt lead, Labor are still well in control. But things can change quickly, looking at the Labor collapse in NZ overnight.

  22. Thanks to Hh and others for the links. My little offering is a reminder that the world’s two most populous nations have significant unresolved border issues.

    This Global Times article contains a huge Chicommie inside joke, although irony is not a strong point with the comrades: China has recently published a map extending its borders to well inside India and Russia:

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202310/1299761.shtml

  23. I posted this last night on the old open thread. I hope people don’t mind me repeating it this morning.

    Most Australians are probably just going to get up tomorrow and go on with their lives, probably glad the whole thing is over. And for them it will be.

    For others though, it will be far from over. They will be angry and hurt and sad. Of course, this applies most to the majority of First Nations people who had hoped that a Voice would provide hope and be a way forward. But I would also like to mention the many decent non-Indigenous Australians who gave up their time and spent their energy actively campaigning for the Voice. These people became deeply engaged with this worthy cause and, after all this time and tonight’s result, must be feeling devastated. I know that this applies to a number of people who post here and I truly hope you are ok.

    I have family overseas and we visit them when we can. If anyone asks what happened and what that says about Australians, I think I’ll just reply that if you weren’t there you could never understand how it was politically hijacked by soulless people who were prepared to fight filthy and sink to truly depraved depths to score points and further their own ambitions without any care or consideration for the consequences and their effect on First Nations people.

    Winston Churchill fought the Battle for Britain but got tossed out at the next election by people who were grateful for his war time leadership but still thought he was an arsehole. Peter Dutton fought hard and dirty for his NO victory but people will still think he’s an arsehole.

  24. I thought Abbott would struggle in the job of leader of the opposition when he won the leadership of the Liberal party over Turnbull by 1 vote. I was wrong.

  25. c@t: “So, none of your seemingly reasonable attempts to make us look away from this fact are going to work here. Well, not with me, anyway. I know where the focus should be.”

    I’m simply saying that I suspect that the lower income Labor vote in the suburbs (and in country towns too, although they aren’t as significant numerically) was possibly already lost to the Voice before Dutton and Price even got going.

    Watching vox pops on the news over the past couple of days, I was struck by a number of voters who said something like “I haven’t had the time to learn what this is all about. My fault really.” I reckon the unstated part of what they were saying was “I can’t see that there is anything in this for me at all: it’s something that excites Indigenous people and those people who’ve been to uni and live in the top end of town. I can’t be bothered trying to find out about it and think I’ll just vote no and hope it goes away.”

    I think this attitude predated anything Dutton said or did. The Yes campaign wasn’t able to find a way of breaking through with these people.

    I’d be a little cautious about paying too much attention to what Katherine Murphy says on this topic: like Nikki Savva, her background is in the small “l” liberal part of the Liberal Party, and the internal ideological debate within the Libs matters far more to her than it does to the rest of us. Like Savva, I think she sees Dutton as a personal enemy.

    Anyway, despite the criticism I received last night, I continue to believe that the best way forward is to shift the focus to negotiating a treaty. The Voice was meant to be a more palatable idea with the public than a treaty, but it failed miserably. So why not stop pussy-footing around and start focusing on the main game.

    The beauty of a treaty is that it can be sold to voters as a permanent way of resolving the issue. Voters are not completely blind to what has gone on: most realise that the often violent seizure of Indigenous lands in the 18th and 19th century is a cause for national shame and needs redress. I think they could be persuaded to engage with something that could possibly fix it for good. The Voice didn’t resonate with a majority of them. Some will like the idea of treaty and some will hate it, but nobody will be indifferent to it: which I think many people were towards the Voice.

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 7:16 am
    (Noel) Pearson last year said that it wouldn’t take much “to mobilise antipathy against Aboriginal people and conjure the worst imaginings about us and the recognition we seek”.

    Australia’s Indigenous were, he said, a “much unloved people”. And “for those who wish to oppose our recognition it will be like shooting fish in a barrel. An inane thing to do but easy. A heartless thing to do but easy.”

    His premonition was, unfortunately, correct. But the fish that were being shot at were not Aboriginal people. They were the millions of Australian voters. And the bullets were misinformation, scare campaigns, fears and doubts, smears and conspiracies.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-shouldn-t-feel-ashamed-but-we-could-be-forgiven-for-being-embarrassed-20231011-p5ebkz.html

    Last night Dutton praised “Advance” for its part in (not his words) spreading misinformation, scare campaigns, fears and doubts, smears and conspiracies. We know there are close links between Advance and the Liberals, particularly the hard right portion. Advance tried out its techniques in the 2022 election by slandering David Pocock who went on to beat Seselja to become an ACT senator. They failed that time but have obviously been more successful at the referendum.

    The referendum can be seen as a trial run for Advance’s interference in state, territory and federal elections in the future. On behalf of the Liberals and Nationals they will doubtless be employing the same techniques as at the referendum. This is where Labor, Greens, Teals and like minded independents will need to be aware of the expected flood of highly sophisticated misinformation techniques and take appropriate counter measures.

  27. Trump?
    He is a cheap populist.
    He lies. He bullies. He verbals people. He slashes at minorities. He foments anger. He is policy lite. He is abrasive. He never saw an authoritarian tendency he did not like.
    Dutton?
    He is a cheap populist.
    He lies. He bullies. He verbals people. He slashes at minorities. He foments anger. He is policy lite. He is abrasive. He never saw an authoritarian tendency he did not like.

  28. There is to be a “week of silence” from indigenous Australians who supported the Voice referendum. I will respect that – it is theirs to grieve the injustice.

    I am not indigenous. I still have a voice – and will remain angry at the well-poisoners.

    **********EMBARGOED UNTIL 9:30PM SATURDAY 14TH OCTOBER 2023*********
    A STATEMENT FROM INDIGENOUS AUSTRALIANS WHO SUPPORTED
    THE VOICE REFERENDUM
    A Week of Silence for the Voice
    Recognition in the constitution of the descendants of the original and continuing owners of
    Australia would have been a great advance for Australians. Alas, the majority have rejected
    it.
    This is a bitter irony. That people who have only been on this continent for 235 years would
    refuse to recognise those whose home this land has been for 60,000 and more years is
    beyond reason. It was never in the gift of these newcomers to refuse recognition to the true
    owners of Australia. The referendum was a chance for newcomers to show a long-refused
    grace and gratitude and to acknowledge that the brutal dispossession of our people
    underwrote their every advantage in this country.
    For more than six years, we have explained to our nation why the Voice was our great hope
    to achieve real change for our families and communities.
    To the Australians who supported us in this vote – we thank you sincerely. You comprise
    many millions of Australians of love and goodwill. We know you wanted a better future for
    Australia, and to put the colonial past behind us by choosing belated recognition and justice.
    We thank the Prime Minister and his government for having the conviction to take this
    referendum to the Australian people at our request. We thank him for his advocacy and all
    parliamentarians who did the same, including members of the Teals, Greens, Nationals and
    independents who stood by us. We pay particular respect to the Liberal parliamentarians
    who bravely advocated for the voice.
    We also thank our fellow Australians from all sectors of the community, including
    multicultural, faith, professional, business, creative and sporting organisations. To the
    hundreds of thousands who took to the streets, knocked on doors and made over a million
    phone calls, thank you for your love and support.
    Our deep chagrin at this result does not in any way diminish our pride and gratefulness for
    the stand they had the moral courage to take in this cause now lost. We know we have
    them by our side in the ongoing cause for justice and fairness in our own land.
    Now is not the time to dissect the reasons for this tragic outcome. This will be done in the
    weeks, years and decades to come. Now is the time for silence, to mourn and deeply
    consider the consequence of this outcome.
    Much will be asked about the role of racism and prejudice against Indigenous people in this
    result. The only thing we ask is that each and every Australian who voted in this election
    reflect hard on this question.
    2
    To our people we say: do not shed tears. This rejection was never for others to issue. The
    truth is that rejection was always ours to determine. The truth is that we offered this
    recognition and it has been refused. We now know where we stand in this our own country.
    Always was. Always will be.
    We will not rest long. Pack up the Uluru Statement from the Heart. Fly our flags low. Talk
    not of recognition and reconciliation. Only of justice and the rights of our people in our own
    country. Things that no one else can gift us, but to which we are entitled by fact that this is
    the country of our birth and inheritance.
    Re-gather our strength and resolve, and when we determine a new direction for justice and
    our rights, let us once again unite. Let us convene in due course to carefully consider our
    path forward.
    We are calling A Week of Silence from tonight (Saturday 14th October) to grieve this
    outcome and reflect on its meaning and significance. We will not be commenting further
    on the result at this time.
    We will be lowering our Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags to half-mast for the
    week of silence to acknowledge this result. We ask others to do the same.
    14 October 2023

  30. The Wall Street Journal reports that US efforts to evacuate hundreds of its citizens from Gaza has ‘faltered’ after Egypt said it was conditional on aid entering Gaza.

  31. citizen @ #26 Sunday, October 15th, 2023 – 8:04 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 7:16 am
    (Noel) Pearson last year said that it wouldn’t take much “to mobilise antipathy against Aboriginal people and conjure the worst imaginings about us and the recognition we seek”.

    Australia’s Indigenous were, he said, a “much unloved people”. And “for those who wish to oppose our recognition it will be like shooting fish in a barrel. An inane thing to do but easy. A heartless thing to do but easy.”

    His premonition was, unfortunately, correct. But the fish that were being shot at were not Aboriginal people. They were the millions of Australian voters. And the bullets were misinformation, scare campaigns, fears and doubts, smears and conspiracies.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-shouldn-t-feel-ashamed-but-we-could-be-forgiven-for-being-embarrassed-20231011-p5ebkz.html

    Last night Dutton praised “Advance” for its part in (not his words) spreading misinformation, scare campaigns, fears and doubts, smears and conspiracies. We know there are close links between Advance and the Liberals, particularly the hard right portion. Advance tried out its techniques in the 2022 election by slandering David Pocock who went on to beat Seselja to become an ACT senator. They failed that time but have obviously been more successful at the referendum.

    The referendum can be seen as a trial run for Advance’s interference in state, territory and federal elections in the future. On behalf of the Liberals and Nationals they will doubtless be employing the same techniques as at the referendum. This is where Labor, Greens, Teals and like minded independents will need to be aware of the expected flood of highly sophisticated misinformation techniques and take appropriate counter measures.

    Big money there. Gina, Inglis, et al. I agree that they are tightening and finessing their tactics, the nasty underbelly of the far right.

  32. Like frightened children willing to believe any lie, Australians were unwilling to see what’s right in front of us, let alone to reach out and do the simplest thing about it. We drew shut our flimsy curtains and turned away.

    But of course, it continues. Everyone still has to get up the next day. Those who denied us a fresh start will deny what they’ve done, unwilling to accept either the past or the future. And the liars who nourish them will need forever to be reminded of their choices, and have the continuing consequences laid at their feet.

  33. From P&I, three headline issues reported in the manner that they resonate most with me. I’ll deal them one by one.

    On the referendum, from Allan Patience:

    What the whole debate about an Indigenous Voice to Parliament demonstrated, with brutal clarity, is that Australia is a morally backward society.

    Leaders of the No case like Peter Dutton, Jacinta Price and Warren Mundine preached a deeply reactionary form of politics for the duration of the campaign. Their adoption of the slogan: “If you don’t know, vote no” has to be one of the most ignorant, ethically despicable, and anti-democratic moments in the history of federal politics in Australia.

    He explores the campaign and the result, naming names. Albo cops it as being ineffective, whereas I side more with Murphy in that he was captive to his own optimism, and belief that goodness would prevail. That, and the moral bankruptcy in the NO case, aligns with my thoughts, and my postings. I saw/see it as a simply moral issue, and said so all along.

    https://johnmenadue.com/australian-politics-has-reached-a-dead-end/

  34. I’m simply saying that I suspect that the lower income Labor vote in the suburbs (and in country towns too, although they aren’t as significant numerically) was possibly already lost to the Voice before Dutton and Price even got going.

    And I just don’t believe that, meher baba. I had a direct line to the ‘No’ campaign via my parents, and they got going as soon as they got the social media mainline from Dutton and Price. Then they worked their butts off reposting every bit of ‘No’ propaganda that was fed to them on a daily basis. Before that, they were actually sympathetic to Indigenous Australians, but they were turned against the ‘Elites’, apparently and without basis actually, in the Indigenous community, by the spigot of shit that emanated from the ‘No’ campaign.

    I don’t need your carefully curated, soft-soaping of the Right opinion, laying the blame at the feet of Labor voters, meher baba, to see the ‘No’ campaign and the throughlines, for what they actually are. Apologia for the despicable campaign run by the Christian Fundamentalist Assimilationists spearheaded by Jacinta Price, and the Authoritarian-In-Waiting, Peter Dutton.

    And if you don’t believe me about the Christian Fundamentalists who want to wipe out all trace of any ideology and spirituality held by Indigenous Australians so that they can be brought under the wings of the Christian vulture by these people, then don’t take my word for it, take the word of Jacinta Price herself:

    The No campaigners and their conservative sympathisers can be pleased with the effectiveness of their campaign. That it contained mistruths and disinformation is not a source of shame for them.

    That those mistruths and disinformation worked, is important information.

    Presumably these conservatives will take all their successful strategies and roll them out for other issues.

    Jacinta Nampijinpa Price has already heralded her next focus – pushing back against the “transgender movement”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/devastating-verdict-australia-tells-first-nations-people-you-are-not-special-20231010-p5eb6a.html

    Now try and tell me it was those low income (no mention of low education and easily fooled), Labor voters, who are to blame. I’ll be interested to see how you soft soap the elephant in the room away this time.

  35. The second is from Peter Sainsbury, on global warming, reaching the *inevitable* 2 degree increase over pre-industrial level in the early 2040s, and where it means to habitability and survivability:

    The price of doing too little for too long.

    Based on what’s actually happening rather than unfulfilled promises, the world will exceed 2oC of warming in the early 2040s and it doesn’t look like a comfortable place to be (not even for succulents).

    https://johnmenadue.com/environment-on-track-for-2-degrees-of-warming-within-20-years/

  36. And thirdly, from the very significant Seymour Hersch, Netanyahu is finished. It was the “I’ll keep you safe” Bibi who spawned Hamas, with Qatar, thinking he could control the monster.

    The most important thing I needed to understand, the Israeli insider told me, is that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “is finished. He is a walking dead man. He will stay in office only until the shooting stops . . . maybe another month or two.” He served as prime minister from 1996 until 1999 and again, as leader of the right-wing Likud Party, from 2009 to 2021, returning for a third stint in late 2022. “Bibi was always opposed to the 1993 Oslo Accords,” the insider said, which initially gave the Palestinian Authority nominal control over both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. When he returned to office in 2009, the insider said, “Bibi chose to support Hamas” as an alternative to the Palestinian Authority, “and gave them money and established them in Gaza.”

    An arrangement was made with Qatar, which began sending hundreds of millions of dollars to the Hamas leadership with Israeli approval. The insider told me that “Bibi was convinced that he would have more control over Hamas with the Qatari money—let them occasionally fire rockets into southern Israel and have access to jobs inside Israel—than he would with the Palestinian Authority. He took that risk.

    https://johnmenadue.com/netanyahu-is-finished/

  37. ItzaDream,
    Do you mean Qatar (Airways, government-owned), that Bridget Mackenzie and Peter Dutton staunchly support? THAT Qatar? 😐

  38. I’m not sure where we are up to on posting on the middle east, but I’ll risk ire and add two I think worthwhile commentaries.

    The New Yorker tries to get inside some self-justifying reasonings behind the Hamas mega-assault:

    Had these apparent gestures of compromise all been part of a ruse to buy time while Hamas prepared a brutal assault? Abu Marzouk insisted that these efforts at negotiation and coexistence had been genuine. He blamed Israel and the Western powers for thwarting Hamas’s overtures. He told us, “We rolled down all of the pathways to get some of our rights—not all of them. We knocked on the door of reconciliation and we weren’t allowed in. We knocked on the door of elections and we were deprived of them. We knocked on the door of a political document for the whole world—we said, ‘We want peace, but give us some of our rights’—but they didn’t let us in.” He added, “We tried every path. We didn’t find one political path to take us out of this morass and free us from occupation.”

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-was-hamas-thinking?

    And which I will supplement with the brilliant observer and commentator Yuval Noah Harari talking with Christiane Amanpour: the seeding of decades of hate, and the destruction of any likely peace process.

    https://youtu.be/8dtdlWLPT7o?si=aYUV91FJWxaHuVuc

  39. Anthony Klan has a story about the shadowy, actual ‘elite of the elites’, behind the ‘No’ campaign and how they created a virtual identity to hide the 10 people that funded the ‘No’ campaign behind:

    WHITE MAN’S DARK MONEY

    The central and by far most powerful and influential “No” campaign lobby is a sham.

    Two-thirds of the directors of the fake “grassroots” campaign network have filed fake residential addresses with regulators; none of its at least six arms has a telephone number — and the entire operation is “based” at a fake national headquarters.

    Minutes from Parliament House, in Canberra’s CBD, is the “address” of the Advance (now officially calling itself “Advance Aus Ltd”) campaign, a murky network of at least six interconnected entities lobbying against an Indigenous Voice to parliament.

    That address has been posted across the nation.

    On campaign flyers, in the fine print on its string of pop-up internet sites, in the advertisements pumped out via its shadowy web of affiliates that are flooding social media.

    In a full-page, racist advertisement in The Australian Financial Review.

    One block back from Canberra’s main thoroughfare, the office tower at 15 Moore Street, known as ANZ House, is the supposed national headquarters of the No campaign.

    It’s the address the campaign – which is aggressively fighting against an Indigenous Voice to parliament – has filed with the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), as well with charities regulator the Australian Charities and Not-for-Profits Commission (ACNC).

    “Level 4, 15 Moore Street Canberra, ACT 2601”, is its “principal place of business”, it has told the corporate regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC).

    Only, like much else with the opaque campaign, it’s a blatant lie.

    https://theklaxon.com.au/ztem-75/

  40. The electorate is, on the whole, made up of six groups.
    (1) Working-class and poorer people voting for Labor out of self-interest through benefits, welfare and distribution.
    (2) Well to do and affluent people voting for the Coalition out of self-interest, with varying levels of education, supporting less taxation and economically liberal policies.
    (3) Educated, well-off people who vote non-Coalition out of altruism or social justice despite their policies being a net negative for themselves, often residing in the inner city. The Teal voters form a subset of this group who are not quite as economically left-wing but support social liberal and humanistic policies.
    (4) Outer suburban aspirational Coalition voters who believe they can still achieve the Australian Dream through industry and hard work. Often have mortgage stress, children and relatively conservative social values and moderate amount of education.
    (5) Typical rural Coalition voters.
    (6) Poorly-educated voters who vote Coalition on the basis of white grievance, anger and mean-spiritedness, against their own self-interest. For this group of people, merely being hostile to minorities and “other” people is enough, despite them being financially worse off under neoliberal policies. The new Trump base.

    The Coalition are obviously looking at the last group when it targets seats to attempt to win back government. It needs to look at Labor marginals. At a stretch, Dobell, Robertson, McEwen, Lyons, Paterson, Hunter, Tangney, Lingiari and Aston should be winnable for them. This will get them up to 64 seats. With Dai Le, Sharkie, Katter, Haines and Gee that gets them to 69. They would need to do a deal with the Teals from here. Otherwise look for more gains from Labor – any suggestions to which seats are next on the list?

  42. The less religion in the Liberal Party the better.
    The Sun rises in the morning and sets in the evening, everything else is just for comfort. I am closer to the Greens on religion and more in touch with Joyce and Canavan on coal. The Sun changes the climate as well and will kill the earth in the end.

  43. The “No” campaign had a lot of money and organisation behind it. Flying hundreds of campaigners to Tasmania and SA for voting-day campaigning couldn’t have been easy or cheap. Powerful and well-heeled interests really wanted to stop the Reconciliation process in its tracks.

    It’s hard to see how any vested interests would have been harmed by the Voice. Many businesses supported it. Other businesses and groups orobably would have seen raising the profile of indigenous perspectives as inimical to their interests.

    However, I think it’s later stages of the reconciliation process that they fear. Those who organised and funded the campaign against the Voice aren’t going to want a bar of any Treaty. That’s what they don’t want – legally enforceable rights for First Nations people.

    Any way forward needs to take that into account.

    And yes, I’m stating a problem without offering any solution, but problems and risks have to be recognised and addressed first before we can move forward with any reasonable expectation of success.

  44. Bird of paradox
    thanks

    My view at the start was No would win, and Peter Dutton had signed a political suicide note. Still my view, the result, polls and your analysis of the seats support that view.

    All that is now left is putting up with several weeks of the Liberals and the media hacks tying to convince us Mr No is something else.

    On the other side of the coin.

    The raciest trope serves no purpose.
    We all should be equal under the law is a valid position.
    It was not a relevant referendum argument, but that point of view is not clear cut.

    FUBAR
    The poll results at the start of this thread indicates your dream has turned to mush. Mr No has cemented his reputation and that is about it. The Liberal now need to worry, is the slight further swing to Labor a blip or the start of a trend. Dutton has made a giant political miss-calculation. I don’t expect you or Dutton to work out why.


    Diogenes says:
    Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 8:24 am

    I think Malinauskas would be pretty worried about his state Voice, which is pretty similar. I can’t believe even Adelaide didn’t vote Yes.
    I can see lots of points being scored against him given the size of the defeat.

    Ya and the same goes for Victoria.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/aug/09/rift-emerges-over-voice-to-parliament-in-victorias-newly-elected-first-peoples-assembly

    I also wonder what contribution “welcome to country” made to the outcome. It really is a bit of a wank. The communities have long gone, I wonder if pretending otherwise was helpful.

  48. Very sad results last night.

    In Clark it’s been happening for a while but what used to be called “The Flannel” curtain has shifted to the start of Glenorchy rather than the end of New Town.

    The inner-city “elites” are not so inner-city in Hobart now.

    I was never much of a fan of the term, but it’s interesting to see how greater Hobart has changed.

  49. Sigil @ #48 Sunday, October 15th, 2023 – 8:55 am

    Very sad results last night.

    In Clark it’s been happening for a while but what used to be called “The Flannel” curtain has shifted to the start of Glenorchy rather than the end of New Town.

    The inner-city “elites” are not so inner-city in Hobart now.

    I was never much of a fan of the term, but it’s interesting to see how greater Hobart has changed.

    Mainlanders coming to the state to make a real estate killing, Sigil. And bringing their intolerant attitudes with them.

  50. Thank you to all who worked towards achieving an indigenous Voice enshrined in our Constitution. You should be proud of your efforts, despite the outcome.

    Thank you to all who voted Yes. (I realise I just thanked myself.) You are good guys.

    To all who voted No, thanks for nothing.

    To all who campaigned for No, I wish to the bottom of my heart you did not exist.

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