Essential Research has not published voting intention numbers with its latest fortnightly poll, which hopefully doesn’t portend anything. It does include the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Anthony Albanese steady at both 46% approval and 43% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down two to 36% and steady on 43%. A monthly “national mood” question has 34% rating that Australia is heading in the right direction, up one, which wrong direction steady at 48%.
Of those voting no at the referendum, 41% favoured “will divide Australia in the constitution on the basis of race” as the preferred reason out of four options, with “not enough detail” at 27%, “won’t make a real difference” at 19% and “will give Indigenous Australians rights and privileges that other Australians don’t have” at 13%. On the Israel-Palestine conflict, 37% professed themselves satisfied with the government’s response with 19% dissatisfied. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1125.
The latest voting intention numbers for Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, from primary votes of Labor 35% (up two), Coalition 34% (steady) and Greens 14% (up half).
Wat Tyler:
Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 9:45 pm
[“I’m going to be a bit controversial but I don’t think Beazley is that great either. Don’t get me wrong: I think he was capable and had he become PM…,”]
Beazley was very well thought of in the ADF when he served as defence minister. He’s also very personable, a good trait to have if one is aspiring to high office. Perhaps, though, he lacked, in Weberian terms, the charismatic authority of a Hawke. But I think he would’ve made it had not Keating lost in a landslide to Howard in the ’96 election – 94 to 49.
B.S. Fairman @ #995 Saturday, October 21st, 2023 – 6:20 pm
Oh no, you underestimate the Shaq’s influence. He also made Albo look tiny … and irrelevant … and desperate.
Labor partisans would clearly prefer to see this cringe-worthy event erased from history. No wonder.
Beazley won 51% 2PP in the 1998 election, but sadly that didn’t translate into enough seats.
In early 2001, he seemed to be cruising to victory later that year. Howard made up some ground by mid year through “policies overboard”, then came “events”.
C@tmomma earlier, re MTG and Tapper. I heard that too from Tapper. The GOP are a shambles.
And I reckon the “emotional” Marjorie Taylor-Greene is merely auditioning to be T****’s running mate in 2024. Her “hero” (the guy who thinks the armed service is for losers) is apparently willing to go to jail for his country. It makes her “so proud”. Astonishing stuff. Though the martyrdom option does give the nutters a future, post T****, and she might just be preparing that path.
Bad day for people called Hayden.
last person on earth to catch covid, yuck, 🙁 almost as bad as a rant by p1, almost!
Evening all, just back from a friends birthday party to hear Bill Hayden has died.
Hayden had his flaws but was always loyal to Labor. I will always respect him for doing the legwork to get the Medicare deal agreed to under Whitlam and for stepping aside in 1983, ensuring Hawke had a clear run to the lodge.
So vale Bill Hayden.
Player One says:
Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 10:20 pm
B.S. Fairman @ #995 Saturday, October 21st, 2023 – 6:20 pm
“The attempt to use Shaquille O’Neal in the Voice campaign has to be one of the strange things to happen in the whole referendum. It disappeared without much of whimper either. The only thing he did was to make Linda Burney look tiny.”
Oh no, you underestimate the Shaq’s influence. He also made Albo look tiny … and irrelevant … and desperate.
Labor partisans would clearly prefer to see this cringe-worthy event erased from history. No wonder.
__________
Whereas I want to distribute this hilarity wide and far 😉
Gillard’s short jaunt around Darwin harbour on a patrol boat wasn’t cringeworthy, but her “East Timor Solution” was, right along side her “Citizen’s Assembly” on climate change … and her terrible, no good, awful fudge on the mining tax.
But of course, Rudd was to blame for her “Real Julia” near death experience in the 2010 election. …
I note Dutton is reported as saying Hayden was the architect of the best Labor government Australians have seen
Even when paying tribute Dutton can not distance himself from being a tawdry politician playing politics – taking a shot at the current government as inferior to past Labor governments
But who is surprised?
And on contradictions, addressing inflation by investing in addressing bottlenecks, infrastructure, education and training then nationalising including government competing with private enterprise then encouraging savings by increasing interest rates
Then increasing taxes and reducing government spending!!!
And these are the various options
The mid day sun comes to mind – or perhaps a full moon
Yes, inflation is being fuelled by supply chain bottlenecks which are a factor of the Pandemic and, now, demand by consumers who are cashed up courtesy of not spending until vaccinations were administered and restrictions on society eased Look at the household savings data and the movements confirmed also by spending on housing and the cost of real estate. So a lot of people have a lot of money for the reasons they do including education, discipline and enterprise
Then we get to geo-political factors and the impact on commodity costs so materials, food and energy
Inflation is not restricted to Australia alone as is not the slow progress to reducing inflation to within band which in itself is the danger
Infrastructure spending is a never ending requirement of government due to enhanced products and increasing demand due to increasing population – as are the investments in education, health and training
Nothing is ever as cheap as it is today
Post Volker, the accepted means of reducing inflation is by impacting discretionary demand by increasing interest rates and Central Bankers continue this remedy
History says it works – and recovery follows which is the economic cycle
So discretionary spending is attacked – noting that those who are “well off” will have cash reserves attracting a higher rate of interest also impacting on tax paid – but they are not particularly impacted by inflation only by availability including on retailer shelves
The borrowing rate will always exceed the depositor rate – banks survive on arbitrage noting we remain in a low interest rate environment which has endured since rhe GFC, so for 15 years now and counting
And in terms of privatisation and government competing with private enterprise, government does not have the largesse to so compete plus it has other far more pressing responsibilities (acknowledging that public utilities should not have been privatised so handed to profit making enterprise with Shareholders investing for dividends)
We see multi national Companies invested into health, aged care and utilities where consumer spending is not an option, they are the necessities of life noting you can pay for an elevated aged care product if you have the means
We do accrue such that we can survive in the means we are accustomed to – that is the objective
Those multi national investors are driven by profit
So there is plenty to address, and we will never get there only endeavour to get there because nothing is today as it was yesterday
The only matter we can address is ensuring we do not elect a government with the ideology that austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down – and otherwise promotes tax cuts to the benefit of a demographic of society
And keep working at what government can achieve, not what it can not achieve
What we do know is that for every action there is a reaction, and often not as expected and promoted. So if you put a stone in a bucket of water the water overflows
Perfection is not achievable – it is a never ending mix of the whole to deliver the acceptable
This government actually makes representations to Fair Work Australia and that is a positive result toward equality, so opposing one person’s pay rise is another person’s job
I note the 9 Entertainment AFR banner headline today is the “No” vote opens a narrow road to Dutton as pm, citing NZ and the demise of a progressive government saying voters have had their fill of progressive governments
They ignore what is happening across the UK in their attempt to influence
Hopefully Australians, or a majority of them, look to the UK and are not influenced by the nonsense which is media in Australia
Albo tiny and irrelevant?
Only in the tiny and irrelevant minds of those who think so!
Albo tiny and irrelevant?
Only in the tiny and irrelevant minds of those who think so!
Did it twice I know.
Something that should be doubled up on so I don’t care!
Those are DIFFERENT options for reducing inflation, to be chosen from depending on what is actually causing the inflation at the time. They are not supposed to be implemented as a package. That was pretty clear from how I phrased the post.
There is no evidence that the recent inflation in Australia has been caused by too much consumer spending. None whatsoever. It was caused chiefly by a combination of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and corporate price-gouging. Contractionary fiscal policy is not a suitable response to that type of inflation.
WA local govt elections today, for those who care:
https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/elections/local
We now have OPV instead of FPTP, so the results should be a little bit less ridiculous. Trying that on wards with multiple seats, though…
I’ve got an idea for a drinking game. Read the candidate profiles of everyone running in Vincent and Vic Park. Every time you see the words “vibrant” or “sustainable”, drink. 😛
City of Perth is Baz from Channel 7 vs Sandy Anghie (who actually wants the gig full-time) vs some kid in his early 20’s from Crawley (how is that not in Nedlands council?). I’ve had some junk mail from Anghie, despite living a block or so into Vincent. That’s the second reason this paragraph the boundaries are drawn in stupid places – Perth, Vincent and the Mt Lawley / Inglewood end of Stirling all should be one council. Kings Park is much more of of a boundary than Newcastle St.
Here in Vincent: the candidates all look very… um… Vincenty. I swear if you put all the profiles from 2021 into ChatGPT it’d feed you back something similar to the 2023 ones. Alison Xamon (former Green MLC) is running for mayor. It’s an open contest (Emma Cole retired) and she’d have more experience / contacts / etc, so I reckon she’ll win. Ron Alexander has a few hand-painted signs around the place saying “GO RON”. So amateurish looking I thought it was a weird graffiti tag at first.
Cambridge is an amusing bin-fire of a council which decided to do its election in-person instead of postal. Last time they tried that was a by-election last year, that got 4.5% turnout. No, that is not a misprint. Also notable for Anthony Fels running in about his 20th election.
Subiaco doesn’t have an election – everyone elected unopposed. Might mean everyone loves them… then again, that happened in Cambridge back in 2019 and has turned into a festering, factional shit-heap since then.
Nedlands no longer has Andrew Mangano, so I won’t have to read his outrageous fuckwittery in the Subi Post any more. His front-runner was claiming a hospice for sick kids shouldn’t be built in Swanbourne because it’s near the SAS barracks, and therefore might become a bombing target if we ever got invaded in a war. John Carey’s response: *facepalm*
(Sounds too broken in the head to be real, I hear you wondering? Nope – he really said that!)
Down in Canning: Jesse Jacobs (son of Graham, a minister in the last Lib state govt) got arrested for stealing corflutes advertising the current mayor. He’s a sitting councillor, so that was one awkward council meeting after that went down.
Elsewhere: *shrugs* Anything else vaguely interesting going on in the exciting world of WA local govt?
Why is Player One obsessed with a stunt involving some American basketballer a year ago? It sunk without a trace, along with all the other stunts engaged in by many PMs over many years. At least that one didn’t involve a hard hat, a high viz vest, children or a couple of dozen flags…
Re inflation, as with climate action, as with housing affordability, as with so many other problems, as former EU Commissioner Jean-Claude Juncker said regarding issues facing the EU, Albo probably knows what to do, he just doesn’t know how to get re-elected after he does it.
“Why is Player One obsessed with a stunt involving some American basketballer a year ago? It sunk without a trace, along with all the other stunts engaged in by many PMs over many years. At least that one didn’t involve a hard hat, a high viz vest, children or a couple of dozen flags…”
@Steve
Exactly. Scott Morrison washes someone’s hair in Salon or using a hot welding tool without a mask. And Player One is banging on about Basketball player appearing briefly at a press conference that happened over 12 months ago that had nothing to do with the referendum result. And was at worst an afterthought.
Player One should work as a sky news after dark commentator. He certainly would be with like minded people.
Re: Shaq discussion, the impact was non-existent, because virtually no-one in this country gives the slightest of fucks about basketball. I’m a sports fan, watched the Last Dance on Netflix and even I struggle to care. It’s probably the 11th or 12th sport I care about.
Australian bloke 1: Hey Shaquile O’Neil
Is on the tv with the Prime Minister, isn’t he one of those guys from that American sport? The one with the weird round ball?
Australian bloke 2: I don’t fucking know. Who fucking gives a shit mate? It’s your round.
Mavis at 10.16 pm
We have discussed the reasons why Beazley did not win in 1998 before. The main problem was not the handicap from the 1996 result for Labor, but rather the handicap in 1998 from the poor candidate selection by the NSW Labor Right. They are very slow to admit their poor personnel selection as a factor in defeat.
There is some background to this problem. Beazley once said something like: in his father’s day, Labor MPs mostly (not all of course e.g. EGW) came from the cream of the working class, whereas subsequently also rans from the middle class (albeit not a precise sociological term) became predominant, as the professional party hacks got the inside running over those with enough broader life experience.
A parallel process was noted 17 years ago by Carmen Lawrence when she referred to something like the husk of Labor party membership, comprising those who are welcomed as essential volunteers during campaigns, but who are not given any hint of a role in policy deliberations.
The problem has got a lot worse in the past 40 years, since the Labor national conference at the Lakeside hotel in Canberra c. 1984, when party leaders had to run the gauntlet of protests to enter the building. After that, the conference venue was put behind a sort of corporate moat, by being moved to West Point casino in Hobart, certainly not an emblem of social progress.
The realists were right
As the much-hyped counteroffensive against Russian forces stalls, the West is asking hard questions about the war in Ukraine.
The rise of the Professional Managerial Class (PMC) within the ALP began with the Accord of the 1980s. That thoroughly misguided initiative effectively turned many union leaders into lackeys of the financial services sector. They stopped being genuine fighters for workers’ rights. They became corrupted by their involvement in implementing one of the Hawke and Keating Government’s worst policies: compelling workers to purchase financial assets to fund their retirement.
Keeping inflation low, unemployment below 2 percent, and under-employment and hidden unemployment at zero would be electoral assets, not liabilities. The required policies would be a targeted use of fiscal policy to achieve and maintain full employment, and to increase productive capacity. Regulatory measures to minimise the use of fossil fuels (by mandating much higher fuel efficiency standards for vehicles, and quickly phasing out sales of new internal combustion vehicles). Increasing investment in active and public transport. Making public transport free. Making all levels of education and all forms of health care free. Funding the construction of 30,000 public homes per year to be sold to first home buyers at cheap regulated prices.
Being reported Zempilas has been re-elected, I can’t see results on the WA electoral commission site though?
The Sunday Times reports:
But apparently they don’t post the results until it’s all counted.
Update on Russia counterattacks in Ukraine.:
It appears I may have have overestimated Russian tactical improvements and adaptation in my last update as the attacks over recent days have maintained similar tactics providing the same same results, disastrous.
As well as losing five SU-25 fighter jets from manpads and 14 helos (mostly KA-52 attack) on airfields from atacms missiles, Russia is losing unsustainable amounts of equipment in Avdiivka. If Bakhmut was a meat grinder for Wagner soldiers, the Avdiivka region is a meat grinder for Russian soldiers and equipment. Regiments of Russian men and equipment are repeatedly being thrown in waves across open but mined fields and roads with only limited artillery and air support.
The absence of counter-battery fire from Russia means their soldiers are at continual risk of artillery fire with Russian reports suggesting Ukrainian fire has been so heavy in parts that it has effectively wiped out some trench lines. This was always a risk with the arrival of Autumn denuding tree lines that hid trenches but it is the sheer numbers and accuracy of rounds that are proving decisive. Soldiers can be replaced readily by Russia but skilled soldiers and equipment are in increasingly short supply and they will soon be required in a more strategic location in the vicinity of Tokmak further south.
Well, at least Baz won’t be trying to insert himself into state politics. (Maybe someone from the Libs let him know being a real politician is harder than it looks – stick to ToyTown.) Must’ve been annoying for him, having to sneak out of his main job (Channel 7, on Telethon night) so he could deal with his side hustle.
Those numbers look like 56 Zempilas, 36 Anghie, 7 Leyland, 1 informal. Crazy low informal vote if that’s true. And a 35% turnout, which is… OK for a council election.
Cronus,
The Ukrainians were horrified when they heard that Israel may get the ATACMS. I don’t know how that has panned out because they are proving to be very effective in Ukraine. Of course I don’t know but does Israel even need them? Ukraine definitely does.
ODI world cup; Dutch 262 Lankans 5/263 & Saffies 7/399 Poms 170.
World news & politics roundup (excluding Gaza as per the current moratorium):
Kenneth Chesebro takes last-minute plea deal, agrees to testify in Georgia election case: https://abcnews.go.com/US/kenneth-chesebro-takes-minute-plea-deal-georgia-election/story?id=104169908
Former Florida lawmaker who sponsored ‘Don’t Say Gay’ sentenced to prison for Covid-19 relief fraud: https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/former-florida-lawmaker-sponsored-dont-say-gay-sentenced-prison-covid-rcna121434
New York judge fired for pointing gun at a Black man in court: https://apnews.com/article/new-york-judge-pointed-gun-black-man-acb11b7f8891970b367f2d8495dd54dc
Congressman Ken Buck says he is being evicted after refusing to vote for Jim Jordan for Speaker of the House: https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/colorado-congressman-ken-buck-says-being-evicted-refusing-to-vote-jim-jordan-speaker-of-the-house/
Trump’s Bitter Standoff with Fox News Is Only Getting Worse: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-bitter-standoff-with-fox-news-is-only-getting-worse
‘People are sick and tired’: the man challenging far-right extremist Lauren Boebert: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/21/adam-frisch-lauren-boebert-2024-election-colorado
U.S. warns of Russian efforts to sow doubt over upcoming elections around the globe: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-warns-of-russian-efforts-to-sow-doubt-over-upcoming-elections-around-the-globe
Latvian president: Close Baltic Sea if Russia behind Balticconnector damage: https://news.err.ee/1609139768/latvian-president-close-baltic-sea-if-russia-behind-balticconnector-damage
Sunak forced to bring thousands of Afghans granted sanctuary in Britain to UK from Pakistan amid safety fears: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/afghanistan-home-office-pakistan-iran-refugees-b2433086.html
Jeremy Hunt ‘set to quit as MP’ in fear of a Portillo moment: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/21/jeremy-hunt-set-to-quit-as-mp-in-fear-of-a-portillo-moment?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
The Australian Tax Office has clawed back $6.4 billion from mining and fossil fuel giants in a record-setting crackdown on multinationals over the past year, with large settlements extracted from Rio Tinto and Ampol contributing to the revenue boost.
The windfall secured by the ATO’s tax avoidance taskforce is more than double the $3 billion average it has extracted from corporate heavyweights annually since the unit was established in 2016.
The taskforce’s success in 2022-23 was underpinned by a mammoth settlement with Rio Tinto in July last year after a decade-long battle over its Singapore-based marketing hub. The nation’s top iron ore miner agreed to pay $1 billion in unpaid taxes in what the ATO Deputy Commissioner Rebecca Saint heralded as “one of the largest settlements in Australia’s tax history”.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the recovered revenue was a “big outcome” and would complement the government’s multinational tax package to address tax loopholes. A first tranche of legislation is currently before the Senate, which aims to increase transparency around the subsidiaries of multinationals and to limit debt deductions. “This extra revenue benefits Australians by helping fund vital services like Medicare, aged care and childcare; support our ability to provide targeted cost of living relief to households; and service the trillion dollars of debt racked up by the former government,” Chalmers said.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/ato-claws-back-record-6-4-billion-in-multinational-crackdown-20231021-p5edz3.html
Who could kill a Wombat?
They have to keep saying this:
“This extra revenue benefits Australians by helping fund vital services like Medicare, aged care and childcare; support our ability to provide targeted cost of living relief to households; and service the trillion dollars of debt racked up by the former government,”
New thread.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 6:07 am
Cronus,
The Ukrainians were horrified when they heard that Israel may get the ATACMS. I don’t know how that has panned out because they are proving to be very effective in Ukraine. Of course I don’t know but does Israel even need them? Ukraine definitely does.
———————————
C@tmomma, WTF??? No part of Gaza is more than a few kilometres from IDF-controlled territory. Napoleon could have supplied them with artillery fit for purpose. They do NOT need ATACMS. Ukraine does.
https://youtu.be/L0Zb9iUi0JM?si=NUk-XOFQZw4Clyz7
https://x.com/darthspoog/status/1718559346538557559
https://theshovel.com.au/2023/10/30/australia-abstains-from-taking-moral-stand-in-classic-australian-move/