Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (open thread)

No signs of any particular damage to Anthony Albanese or the government headed into Saturday’s debacle from Essential Research or Roy Morgan.

Essential Research has not published voting intention numbers with its latest fortnightly poll, which hopefully doesn’t portend anything. It does include the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Anthony Albanese steady at both 46% approval and 43% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down two to 36% and steady on 43%. A monthly “national mood” question has 34% rating that Australia is heading in the right direction, up one, which wrong direction steady at 48%.

Of those voting no at the referendum, 41% favoured “will divide Australia in the constitution on the basis of race” as the preferred reason out of four options, with “not enough detail” at 27%, “won’t make a real difference” at 19% and “will give Indigenous Australians rights and privileges that other Australians don’t have” at 13%. On the Israel-Palestine conflict, 37% professed themselves satisfied with the government’s response with 19% dissatisfied. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1125.

The latest voting intention numbers for Roy Morgan have Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, from primary votes of Labor 35% (up two), Coalition 34% (steady) and Greens 14% (up half).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,090 comments on “Essential Research and Roy Morgan polls (open thread)”

Comments Page 21 of 22
1 … 20 21 22

  1. C@tmomma @ Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 5:47 pm

    Taylormade @ #965 Saturday, October 21st, 2023 – 5:43 pm

    … but I always remember cringeworthy stunts.
    It’s up there with Gillard on the patrol boat out looking for people smugglers.

    And Scott Morrison crash tackling that little kid.

    And Morrison butchering “April Sun in Cuba” on ukelele in some kind of bizarre attempt to appear relatable. In any case, he’s far better known for trying to take in the sun in Hawaii during a national crisis.

  2. I remember watching Morrison clean that floor and thinking, yep, that should have been his career. With Shorten working alongside him as janitor.

  5. I wonder how easy it would be, politically, to earmark at least some of the foreign aid we give as unconditional money gifts, to be spent ‘over there’ as they see fit
    ———————————
    Not sure where to start on that.

    Politically, part of the reason for government foreign aid is to line pockets of mates. Sad, but very true. Think Halliburton and Afghanistan. In fact, think Halliburton and New Orleans.
    There is also the concern that money will get wasted if just splashed around. Accountability and bang for buck. This is partly fair but often partly very much racism. Naomi Klein wrote about how aid in SriLanka post tsunami was often completely useless goods, bought in the US and delivered to villagers. One example she gave was of a fishing village decimated by the tsunami, it was relocated well inland so a US company could build a resort where they had been. The aid came in the form of boats – so far inland it could never be used. And a local woman said to Klein ‘if you want to help, put money in my hand’.

    Then there are the conditions. The Washington consensus structural adjustment conditions are worth reading about. These conditions usually more to the benefit of western companies and a few local autocrats and oligarchs who then offshored their wealth.

  7. The putinista tankies can’t get their heads around this:

    1. Probable outcome: negotiated.
    2. Right to decide when and how to negotiate: completely with Ukraine.
    3. Right to arm Ukraine: completely with the US.
    4. Right to accept or reject US, European and Australian weapons and supplies: completely with Ukraine.

    Instead the Putinista tankies frame stuff as if the US is forcing Ukraine into a protracted war with Russia. The tankies just do not get it.

    The Putinistas never, ever get into their small minds that Putin can and shoujld stop this war any time he decides so to do. They never call on Putin to do this. Strange. Instead, the Putinista tankies are fixated on US bad. Fixated. Absolutely fixated.

    Putin is a war criminal, a war monger, a mass murderer, and an imperialist. His armed forces are right into rape, torture, and child abduction on a massive scale. All things that Putinista tankies can never get their heads around properly.

    Why? Cos US bad.

  8. Wat Tyler @ #1000 Saturday, October 21st, 2023 – 5:45 pm

    Asha @ #998 Saturday, October 21st, 2023 – 6:08 pm

    A year later, and I’m still just as baffled by the existence of people who have managed to spend their entire lives in a western, English-speaking country without knowing who Shaq is. It’s got nothing to do with whether you are into basketball or not (I’ve never watched an NBA game in my life), it’s just something that gets absorbed through osmosis. It’s like not knowing who Michael Jackson or Brad Pitt or Princess Diana is.

    I can imagine a few people on here just sneered at it as “Yank rubbish” back in the 90s, and blocked their ears to it.

    Not sneering but just zero interest in my case. I have the same problem with pop culture references – I often have to Google them to make sense of what someone usaying.

    Not everyone is obliged to live in the same information world

  9. Ah, Scomo.

    Still collecting. Still off on speaking gigs to barking mad far right religionists. Still lurking.

    Abbott is suffering the mother of all ADD infections. The only meaningful activity in his life is to take down First Nations. They don’t exist, apparently.

    Ugly sexually-fixated, lying and racist Dutton makes up the trifecta in the sad, the mad and the bad.

  13. Asha says:
    Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 6:38 pm
    A year later, and I’m still just as baffled by the existence of people who have managed to spend their entire lives in a western, English-speaking country without knowing who Shaq is. It’s got nothing to do with whether you are into basketball or not (I’ve never watched an NBA game in my life), it’s just something that gets absorbed through osmosis from hearing the gazillion or so references and jokes that have been made about the guy in various forms of media since the early 90s. It’s like having never heard of Michael Jackson or Brad Pitt or Princess Diana.

    _____________

    Quite informative that you are baffled by this situation 🙂

    Edit: I should mention the words “their entire lives” is particularly informative.

  14. The number of dead Russians around Avdiivka is astonishing. It must stink too. When the Soviets were retaking one city in WWII they had to use their gas masks to deal with the smell.

  16. ‘B.S. Fairman says:
    Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 7:41 pm

    The number of dead Russians around Avdiivka is astonishing. It must stink too. When the Soviets were retaking one city in WWII they had to use their gas masks to deal with the smell.’
    —————————–
    The Stavka’s plan seems to use relatively untrained troops in human waves to force Ukraine use up all its ammunition.
    The point?
    IMO, to cause Ukraine to divert some of its focus from the advances it was making.

  17. I think the most annoying thing about the whole Shaq episode is that it just highlighted that embarrassing problem of what a provincial little island we can be. Some American celebrity of yesteryear visits Australia, and our media and political class fall over themselves to roll out the red carpet as if we’ve been graced by the presence of such a megastar.

  20. I remember once when Stephen Fry visited Queensland fifteen or so years ago, and it was the top story on the local news for days! At one point reporters were asking him his thoughts on some embarrassing saga the LNP were going through at the time (I think the infamous “flip a coin” leadership contest between Tim Nicholls and Bruce Flegg), and you could tell he was thinking, “What in the actual fuck are you people talking about?”

  21. Asha
    It’s like having never heard of Michael Jackson or Brad Pitt or Princess Diana.

    Who are they? Never heard of them. Are any of them still alive?

  24. Rainman @ #983 Saturday, October 21st, 2023 – 4:56 pm

    Wars only end in one of two ways:

    1/Total victory.

    In my opinion, it is highly unlikely Ukraine will ever drive the Russians into the Black Sea.

    2/ Negotiated settlement.

    In my opinion, this is the only realistic way this war will end.

    In my opinion, US support for Ukraine will ensure a perpetual war, which will lead to the never ending deaths of innocent civilians. Surely, you don’t want that?

    No, I don’t want that, but you might as well list it as option ‘3/Perpetual war’. Because I also don’t want option 2. Not unless it’s a negotiation in name only, with Russia agreeing to leave all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, while receiving nothing in return.

    Anything short of that, and as much as I don’t want perpetual war I’d still put that ahead of a negotiated settlement if we were doing a ranked preference vote on preferred outcome. Any resolution that’s not total victory for Ukraine or something logically equivalent to it must be avoided. The message to Putin cannot be that he can just take stuff by force and get away with it.

    Western nations should be providing Ukraine with everything it needs to achieve victory; medium- to long-range precision missiles, modern fighter jets and loadouts, air defense, etc.. The problem is they haven’t been, and have placed far too much weight on Putin’s rhetoric about escalation and threats of retalliation. They can still fix that, though they probably won’t. However even anemic help is far, far better than the no (US) help that Ukraine will get while the House is deadlocked.

    To a certain extent the Democrats share blame for that. They could have propped up McCarthy until a new aid package for Ukraine was at least attempted in the House (or unequivocally knocked back by the Speaker).

  25. Asha, that’s embarrassing.

    I can see the line of thought too:

    “Oh, I have to interview Stephen Fry. No idea what to talk about. Wait, he’s pretty smart if I remember correctly. He probably likes talking about smart topics. Well, because I am a journalist who is stuck inside a bubble, the only smart topic I can think of is politics. And the only recent politics thing I can think of is that state political event that had us giggling in the newsroom. Yeah, I bet he’d have some witty takes on that.”

  27. Yes Asha.

    I have heard of Princess Diana. She got very angry at the paparazzi following her all the time. The last time it happened, she nearly went through the roof.

  32. I keep wondering when Tasmania is going to be seeing an infusion of fresh blood into its political scene via the mainlanders that are moving there? From where I am looking at it it’s still very parochial.

  33. There are different ways of reducing inflation. Which ones to use depend on what is causing the inflation.

    1/ Increasing productive capacity and addressing distribution bottlenecks. Options include investments in infrastructure, education, and training. Regulatory measures.

    2/ Reducing corporate power to increase profit margins. Options include anti-trust regulations, nationalizing industries, introducing a public option to compete with private providers.

    3/ Encouraging people to save more. Options include offering an attractive interest rate for term deposits.

    4/ Increasing taxes

    5/ Reducing government spending

  35. C@tmomma @ #1034 Saturday, October 21st, 2023 – 7:42 pm

    This is a really good interview with Republican Steve Womack. Some honest truths are told and plain speaking occurs:

    https://youtu.be/Nnu2RRbiQOM?si=zh0BQR4tn1EkZE_B

    Yep. Coincidentally, I just watched this. Womack seems to be saying that the earliest there might be a Speaker is at least a week from now. And Tapper’s comment about the anger and hurt was apt too, “We don’t care.”

  36. Per this afternoon’s discussion on retro “Pollie Pearlers”, pls consider some of the classics.

    * 1947 Arthur Calwell – Two wong’s don’t make a white
    * 1986 Sir Joh Bjelke Peterson -On condoms: “We don’t want any of that sort of thing up here.”
    Link here: https://www.smh.com.au/national/quotable-quotes-20050424-gdl6r5.html
    ( in case you think I made that up)
    * 1987 Bob Hawke – No child will be living in poverty by 1990
    *1987 Jeff Kennett – Howard’s a (blank)! when on the car-phone to Andrew Peacock
    * 1992 Paul Keating – I want to do you slowly (Target: John Hewson)
    * 1992 Paul Keating – Unrepresentative swill (Target: The Senate). Keating in fine form in 1992.
    * 1998 John Howard – Can’t fatten the pig on market day (I suppose a more detailed policy than “axe the tax”)
    * 2009 Kevin Rudd – Attaining a PhD is just an excuse that all young women are using nowadays to avoid starting families.
    * 2011 Julia Gillard – There will be no carbon tax under a government that I lead
    * 2015 Tony Abbott – Sir Prince Phillip

    I am sure there are more pearlers out there.

  38. I find difficulty in accepting the claim that Hayden was the best PM we never had; on the Labor side, I’d say Beazley was. And while his comment (wwtte) that politics was more fun than cutting ribbons could be interpreted as he wasn’t fulfilled in the role, he did serve for 7 years in it, the second longest, only eclipsed by Baron Gowrie – 9 years & 7 days.

    In my final year in the RAN (’85), one of my jobs was to pay naval personnel serving in Canberra outstations, which included Government House, Yarralumla. I was shown around it by (from memory) a naval aide-de-camp to the GG. While not palatial it is nevertheless a fine residence & a far cry from Hayden’s relatively humble upbringing. Anyway, I don’t mean to be critical of the dearly departed. Hayden was a good Labor man, but who I think never quite got over Hawke replacing him.

  39. Late Riser,
    Jake Tapper was making the point also that the world can’t wait for the Republican Party to get its act together. Some hard-headed decisions are going to have to be made by the Republicans next week to get a new Speaker for the House. No more delay and infighting.

    Myself, I think that the era of the Clown Caucus is coming to an end. What’s that saying about, it happened very slowly, then all at once? I mean, really, what sort of adult entrusted with the job of legislating for the nation, cries over the possibility that Donald Trump may end up going to jail for breaking his gag order, as Marjorie Taylor-Greene did? It’s both mendacious, because it flaunts the concept of everyone is equal under the law, it is arguing that Donald Trump should be able to continue free-basing his trolling against anyone and everyone that is in his way on the road to his second term Presidency, god forbid, and it’s just the sort of lightweight performative nonsense that politics has seen way too much of lately. It’s not a TV show, it’s a serious business. Or at least it’s supposed to be.

  42. C@tmomma:

    Unfortunately, I think the clown show has only just begun. The GOP is only going to get nuttier as more of the old guard steps down and are replaced by Trumpist crackpots. It may well make them unelectable on a national level, but the realities of the US political system will let them continue to do all sorts of damage.

  43. I had never heard of the Rudd one before, and after looking it up I suspect it was a poor attempt at humour (Rudd being Rudd) that may not have been relayed exactly as actually said, as an off the cuff remark in a private conversation.

    Some people really keep receipts on the oddest things, like P1 being the only person in Australia who kept a grudge against Albo over the Shaq thing.

    Downer’s “the things that batter” which actually led directly to his resignation as Leader ought to get a guernsey in this discussion…

  45. The thing about cults of personality, and Trumpism is one, is they don’t tend to last when the cult leader does.

    I don’t think Trumpism survives Trump.

  46. On the topic of “Best PM we never had”, I honestly can’t give an enthusiastic answer on that one. Obviously, by the nature of the premise, I could rank all the also-rans and one person would be the “best” (by virtue of being number one) but none stick out as somebody who the country badly missed out on (except on the basis that the other side was bad.) Even when I extend the field to ministers who were never leaders but could have been (a bit of a haystack to dig through), I can’t think of anyone who stands out. Maybe if I thought about it long enough, some names might emerge but until then, I’m stumped.

    I’m going to be a bit controversial but I don’t think Beazley is that great either. Don’t get me wrong: I think he was capable and had he become PM, he probably would have done a reasonable job, and certainly I think that it’s regrettable that his losses meant Howard staying in power but I don’t reflect back on him and think “Boy, Australia really dropped the ball and missed out on a great leader there.”

    Maybe it’s just because of the nature of Australian politics that we aren’t seeking visionary statesmen, just adequate leaders who can do their jobs and then maybe surprise us with how exceptional they actually are. I dunno. Maybe I’m just jaded.

  47. Themunz says:
    Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 1:54 pm
    Hi Cronus.

    We did a similar trip about ten years ago and our takeaway was how relaxed Scandinavian are with high taxation in return for strong social support. Real cost of living pressure on one hand for peace of mind on the other.

    To see their true “relaxed” character try a trip on one of the inter country overnight ferries where duty free consumption is the attraction.
    ——————
    Themunz

    So we caught the ferry from Helsinki to Tallin (not overnight though). I awoke on the morning of the trip to read that 24hr earlier they recorded the largest wave ever (5.5m) between those two locations.

    I decided not to inform Ms Cronus, a devoted landlubber. The trip was challenging though not quite 5 metres but it was impossible to walk straight at any point. Not even the duty free shopping was enough to hold Ms Cronus’ attention long under such circumstances. Anywho, all’s well that ends well. I do very much enjoy the relaxed approach these folk portray to life.

  48. Arky: One Trump fails/dies then Trumpism will split into various factions around various self absorbed personalities e.g. 1. low tax/low expenditure/free trade
    2. military isolationists & economic protectionists
    3. those who want to increase military spending
    4. those who want to bomb Iran and other trouble makers
    5. those who want to impose their moral beliefs

  50. Wat Tylersays:

    Maybe it’s just because of the nature of Australian politics that we aren’t seeking visionary statesmen, just adequate leaders who can do their jobs and then maybe surprise us with how exceptional they actually are. I dunno. Maybe I’m just jaded.
    ___________________
    I wonder if instead of going to Princeton, Peter Singer had been successful in standing for the Greens. Certainly would have been the most intellectually distinguished of any Australian parliamentarian.

    Then again, perhaps spending years combating the likes of Barnaby Joyce would have been a waste of time and energy.

Comments Page 21 of 22
1 … 20 21 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *