Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45 (open thread)

Unsurprising results on federal voting intention and the Indigenous Voice from Essential Research, while RedBridge finds the Coalition making no headway in Victoria.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds both major parties unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 32%, with the Greens down two to 13%, One Nation up one to 8% and 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 45% – the narrowest result this term – with undecided likewise at 6%. A result on the Indigenous Voice maintains the remorseless trend, with no up three to 51% (hard no up one to 42%, soft no up one to 8%) and and yes down one to 41% (hard yes down two to 28%, soft yes steady at 12%).

Regarding the government’s latest package of workplace laws, the poll finds 79% are in favour of criminalising wage theft, with only 6% opposed; 66% support “closing loopholes so that employers can’t use labour hire workers to undercut full time workers”, with 12% opposed; and 54% support “ensure that gig workers who work through digital platforms have minimum rights and entitlements”, with 15% opposed. Forty-nine per cent favoured “businesses maximising profits for shareholders” as the cause of rising living costs over 32% for the alternative cause of wage and salary increases for workers, and 42% felt workplace power tilted too much in favour of employers compared with 12% for workers. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1135.

Also doing the rounds is a Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group that shows primary vote shares much as they were at the November election, with Labor on 37%, the Coalition on 34% and the Greens on 13% (36.7%, 34.5% and 11.5% respectively at the election). However, Labor is credited with a wider two-party preferred lead of 56.5-43.5, compared with 55.0-45.0 at the election. The poll was conducted August 31 to September 14 from a substantial sample of 3001, allowing for credible breakdowns by gender, age, region, education, income and home ownership in the pollster’s report.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,605 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45 (open thread)”

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  1. if vbrandis and other liberals are leading the charge to dismiss pezzulo is albanese asks him to resign he can say its coming from the moderit liberals brandis warned abbout pezzulos power grab in a speech in 2017 when he resignedas aterney generalreported by karin middleton brandis was incompetent him self

  2. Henry @ #1595 Sunday, September 24th, 2023 – 9:52 pm

    Biden is ahead on most reputable polls atm, given Trump will probably be convicted before the election, this would suggest Biden will be re-elected.

    ABC/WaPo isn’t reputable? If anything I’d expect them to lean democratic.

    Although the accompanying blurb about Biden trailing due to “dissatisfaction growing over his handling of the economy and immigration, a rising share saying the U.S. is doing too much to aid Ukraine in its war with Russia” reads like it was taken straight from GOP talking points.

  3. As for U.S politics, someone needs to persuade Biden not to run for a 2nd term, either his wife or his doctors or some senior democrat power brokers.
    Kamala Harris is not the answer, her poll numbers are terrible.
    The two obvious Democrat standouts to me are Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom, Governor of California

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