The Herald-Sun relates that a RedBridge Group poll of state voting intention in Victoria has Labor leading 54-46, in from 55.9-44.1 at the last such poll in December, from primary votes of Labor 36% (down one), Coalition 38% (up two) and Greens 10% (down three). The poll was conducted March 14 to 20 from a sample of 1559. A full report will presumably be along shortly featuring detailed demographic breakdowns. We are also likely to get later this week the regular bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result featuring state voting intention numbers combined from its latest poll and the one conducted a month ago.
UPDATE (28/3): As foreshadowed above, The Age today has the bi-monthly Resolve Strategic result, and it concurs with RedBridge Group in finding the Coalition moving into a lead on the primary vote, with Labor down two from December to 33%, the Coalition up four to 35%, the Greens up two to 13% and generic independents down two to 12%. Where last time I calculated Labor’s two-party lead approaching 57-43, now I have it at around 53.5-46.5. Jacinta Allan’s lead over John Pesutto on preferred premier has narrowed from 34-22 to 34-25. The two field work periods for the polling were February 21 to 24 and March 21 to 24 – the sample size is not disclosed, but would have been around 1000.
A few points on Macnamara:
– There’s a redistribution in progress which may remove Caulfield, and therefore the vast majority of the Jewish population, from the seat
– Even on current boundaries if Caulfield remains, Macnamara is 88% non-Jewish
– The 12% Jewish population are least likely to have voted Greens at the last election anyway, and the Greens’ position on Israel/Palestine has not only been well known, but also been a hot topic in the seat for every election I can remember, going right back to Michael Danby sending out flyers about the Greens being “anti-Israel” way back in 2013 & 2016
– Therefore, I don’t actually think there’s really any Greens vote to be lost by their long standing position on Palestine just happening to be more of a hot topic right now. Anyone put off by that wouldn’t have voted for them in 2022, or 2019, or 2016..
Based on 2022 results, even a <1% swing from Labor to Liberal would have resulted in a Greens win.
The situation in Macnamara, on current boundaries, is really that the Liberals are completely uncompetitive to win, but Labor are only a tiny negative swing (to any party) away from falling out of the 2CP. Basically if Labor's vote goes backwards at all, the Greens most likely win in a lopsided GRN v LIB 2CP.
A redistribution that turns Macnamara into an ALP v GRN seat is more of a threat to the Greens' chances than their position on Palestine.
Onto the Victorian poll though, I thought it was ridiculously misleading that The Age tried to spin the poll as being the Liberals "taking the lead". Obviously trying to kill the narrative that the Liberals are uncompetitive and therefore not worth voting for. In reality the Coalition need a primary vote north of 40% to even have a remote chance.