Three new federal voting intention polls have dropped in short order, including the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers, which seems to have lost most of the Labor lean that distinguished it from other pollsters before the start of the year. Both major parties are down two points on the primary vote from the February result, putting Labor at 32% and the Coalition at 35%, with the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down one to 5%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three to 38%, with his combined poor and very poor up two to 49%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 36% and down one to 44%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting out from 39-32 to 40-30. In the absence of a two-party preferred measure from Resolve Strategic, my own favoured method of calculating one from flows at the 2022 election (which lumps together independents and all parties other than the majors, the Greens, One Nation and the United Australia Party into a single category) gets a result of about 52.8-47.2 in Labor’s favour, compared with a bit over 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research has what is by some distance Labor’s worst result on voting intention this term, with the Coalition opening a lead of 50% to 44% on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, the balance being undecided. This compares with a Labor lead of 48% to 47% last time and a reversed result the time before, the latter being the only previous occasion when the Coalition led this term. We will have to wait upon the release of the full report later today for the primary votes. Despite this, The Guardian report relates little change on a monthly leadership on which respondents rate the leaders on a scale of one to ten, with 32% (down one) giving Anthony Albanese a rating of seven to ten and 35% (steady) a rating of zero to three. Peter Dutton had 31% at the top of the range, down one, and 34% at the bottom, up one.
UPDATE: The primary votes are Labor 29% (down three), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one), with undecided up one to 6%.
Further questions relate to campaign finance reform and the state of Australian democracy, recording a drop from 46% to 32% in satisfaction with the latter since immediately after the 2022 election and dissatisfaction up from 18% to 31%. There was strong support for truth-in-advertising laws (73%), real-time reporting of donations (64%) and donations caps (61%), though the related proposal of greater public funding found only 29% support with 35% opposed.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll is also less than stellar for Labor, recording a tie on two-party preferred after they led 51.5-48.5 result last time. However, this is more to do with a weaker flow of respondent-allocated preferences than changes on the primary vote, on which Labor is steady at 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 14% and One Nation down one to 4.5%. My own measure of a result based on 2022 election preferences has Labor leading 51.5-48.5, which is little different from last time.
We also have from The Australian further results from the latest Newspoll showing 51% support for fixed four-year parliamentary terms with 37% opposed.
‘After 40 years in jail for a murder he says he didn’t commit, Derek Bromley is ‘overwhelmed’ to be granted his freedom’
Posted 54m ago
abc.net.au
Of course, Rex Douglas thinks cash should be abolished. Isn’t he in the moving numbers around on a computer screen = profit, business?
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 7:18 pm
It is not at all clear to me what degree, if any, of command and control Lambie has over little Tassie lambies.
=============================================================
Boerwar you would think if you were a member of a party then you would follow the principles and policies of that party.
To go to an election under the banner of Lambies party, get elected on that basis, then do whatever you want is blatant dishonesty.
Jacqui has role in this, she created the monster, now it’s going to bite her on the backside!
These people are going to fly loose and go off on their own tangents.
What do you need cash for C@t?
The sooner cash finishes the better.
Drug criminals will be finished.
Pubs and club barons will need to rethink their business model due to the massive loss of drug money laundering.
So, I say it’s a very, very good thing to happen, the sooner the better!
@Been There
Oh I don’t know, maybe some means to exchange items in the chance that power and/or internet no longer works in such events as corporate screw-ups as happened with Optus in November or when 500,000 properties were knocked out of power in Victoria due to a freak weather event in the last month alone.
The invention of the internet only 30 years ago may have revolutionized everything in humanity, but it’s a little bit early to declare the bedrock of our civilized world that is “cash” to be defunct.
All the way with DJT?
“The sooner cash finishes the better.Drug criminals will be finished.
Pubs and club barons will need to rethink their business model due to the massive loss of drug money laundering.So, I say it’s a very, very good thing to happen, the sooner the better!”
Or, Governments could implement AntiCrime Policies and lock criminals up. and we could keep using cash.
A radical idea, I know.
Keep in mind that those Criminals are still allowed to vote Labor/Green from inside their slot.
It’s a win/win!
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 5:29 pm
A modern Henty wants to dememorlialize the so-called ‘settler’ Hentys:
_____________________
I could tell you a story about the replica of ‘The Thistle’ made by the local Tech school students to commemorate Portland’s 150th anniversary celebrations back in 1984.
What a nightmare that turned out to be.
Poor old dad, he was only doing the local Lions club a favour.
Hard to imagine cash being abolished in the US in the near future.
Cards can’t replace the bill-fold of dollar bills you are obliged to carry to hand out to all and sundry who provide services but aren’t actually given a living wage by their employers.
Good point Oakeshott.
Unfortunately, the removal of cash in Australia affects the needy and those who don’t have the skills to use the no cash platforms.
That is the only reason I can find against a no cash society.
Gympie, criminals can vote for anyone they like, even criminals in political parties!
”
Ashasays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 9:01 pm
Rex:
Kirsdarke
If you’re telling me you couldn’t cope without cash, I don’t believe you.
Way to completely miss the point.
You’re right, most (but definitely not all) people these days can easily get by without cash 99% of the time.
Except for those times when they can’t.
And it doesn’t matter how rare those times may come by, if you need to pay for something now and cannot do so because of severe weather or the multiple recent instances of bank networks going out nationwide or whatever, then you are fucked. Sorry, welcome to the 21st century, no food / shelter / medicine / (insert necessity here) for you.
”
Cash is like Insurance. In the modern digital times, You don’t need it until you need it.
Counterfeit money can be analogy for Insurance fraud.
Been There,
Voting at prisons was listed at the AEC site under Polling Place 2CP, as recently as 2016, it made interesting reading.
Now it’s disappeared, even checking AEC Results back to 2004.
Perhaps there’s some simple explanation?
Australia’s approach to banking is odd because most other countries are not abolishing cash and bank branches.
Al Jazeera:
Most Americans disapprove of Israel’s actions in Gaza: Poll
Poll shows ‘clear disconnect’ between President Joe Biden’s policies and US public, especially Democrats, analyst says.
https://www-aljazeera-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2024/3/27/most-americans-disapprove-of-israels-actions-in-gaza-poll?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17116267606988&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Fnews%2F2024%2F3%2F27%2Fmost-americans-disapprove-of-israels-actions-in-gaza-poll
“The Gallup poll released on Wednesday found that 55 percent of respondents disapproved of the Israeli military’s actions in the Gaza Strip, up from 45 percent who said they disapproved in November, a month after Israel began its operation.
Among Democratic Party voters, the percentage was even higher, with 75 percent of respondents expressing a negative view of Israel’s actions, while 60 percent of independents also said they disapproved.”
And in some good news, Molly the magpie is going to be reunited with Peggy the staffy.
‘On Thursday Mr Miles released a statement saying that Ms Wells and Mr Mortensen would be able to keep Molly if they undergo appropriate training.
“The environment department stands ready to train Molly’s parents to be wildlife carers, to get that certification, so Molly can be reunited with the family,” the premier said’
news.com.au
Rainmansays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 11:28 pm
And in some good news, Molly the magpie is going to be reunited with Peggy the staffy.
======================================================================
Great news Rainman!
Good to see someone in government bureaucracy has a heart!
will Israel and Palestine be crucial factors in the next Australian election ?
Excellent! And hopefully they stop their socials on the bird. The reason why they choose NOT to proceed with certification that led to this situation. Surely it isn’t about the money? 😉
Daniel Plainview says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 11:54 pm
will Israel and Palestine be crucial factors in the next Australian election ?
___________
Factors? Sure. Crucial? No. It’s the economy.
its hard for me to understand. My family came as refugees in 2003 after bandits and murders forced us off a 5th gen, productive commercial farm near Bulawayo. My parents employed, educated and fed over 150 workers and their families. On arrival in Brisbane we were treated with respect and given every assistance needed to start over and settle. Our family are model immigrants that integrated effortlessly into Aussie culture. Is there a concern that middle eastern refugees couldn’t do the same?.
Give me 9.9 out of 10 pls WB.
You know I know my polls! Love it, especially YouGov dropping one in just before midday today.
(YouGov Sample was 1513 voters; less than Morgan but more than Newspoll)
Just waiting on that blasted Redbridge March Omnibus Poll (per my list below) – big sample, near to 2600 polled. Bigger sample than Newspoll, YouGov or Morgan. Got to drop any day now.
Moving fwd – we have “the Budget”, and then the post Budget polls, then we have the winter recess, and then > Jul-1, the early election carry on will begin. {Everyone, remember pls, the earliest we can have a House & half-senate is Saturday Aug-10-2024 (Sat 3-Aug if the Governor is agreeable), and the latest is Sat May-24-2025}.
No DD triggers available so the above timeframes will be adhered to.
We are moving into “Election Year”.
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nadia88 says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 10:05 pm
Yes agreed – bit of a fair-squared result. 51-49.
We could have a busy week with polls in the lead up to Easter.
* Roy Morgan & Essential Media by Tues AM.
* Resolve Poll (via the SMH/Age) is a day overdue, so any day now
* Redbridge Political Compass (last was on 12-Feb), so again a bit overdue
* YouGov – due around Thurs midday, although they may wait another week and drop after Easter
Hello Been There,
We haven’t crossed paths for a while on the blog.
Hope all is travelling well for you.
Daniel Plainview says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 11:54 pm
will Israel and Palestine be crucial factors in the next Australian election ?
————————————————————————-
I think most Federal electorates with large Muslim populations in NSW and Victoria are safe Labor seats. The Greens have aligned themselves with the Palestinian cause, but probably a greater risk for Labor would be if community independents decide to run.
Labor did unexpectedly lose Fowler in Sydney to a Vietnamese born community independent, Dai Le, at the last election.
Jim’s second surplus virtually locked-in (The Oz)
The Treasurer’s second surplus is virtually guaranteed after monthly financial statements revealed a dramatic deficit reduction on the back of a revenue surge and lower spending.
So much for the LNP as the best economic managers. The MSM would hate this.
“China drops tariffs on Australian wine.”
And Labor will get no thanks for it as usual.
Daniel Plainview says:
Friday, March 29, 2024 at 12:03 am
Our family are model immigrants that integrated effortlessly into Aussie culture. Is there a concern that middle eastern refugees couldn’t do the same?.
——————————————————————————-
I don’t know anything about the eastern states but in Adelaide I have had a lot to do with a lot of Muslim refugees over many years. Most of them were Afghan, and they were all very happy to be here and had no problem with our culture. They were particularly impressed with our education system, equal rights for women and our democracy.
Meanwhile in South Carolina, an unconstitutional district map has been approved. What?
https://wapo.st/4cxSINs
New thread.