Federal polls: Resolve Strategic, Essential Research, Roy Morgan (open thread)

Another three federal polls — one good, one bad and one ugly for Labor.

Three new federal voting intention polls have dropped in short order, including the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers, which seems to have lost most of the Labor lean that distinguished it from other pollsters before the start of the year. Both major parties are down two points on the primary vote from the February result, putting Labor at 32% and the Coalition at 35%, with the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down one to 5%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three to 38%, with his combined poor and very poor up two to 49%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 36% and down one to 44%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting out from 39-32 to 40-30. In the absence of a two-party preferred measure from Resolve Strategic, my own favoured method of calculating one from flows at the 2022 election (which lumps together independents and all parties other than the majors, the Greens, One Nation and the United Australia Party into a single category) gets a result of about 52.8-47.2 in Labor’s favour, compared with a bit over 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research has what is by some distance Labor’s worst result on voting intention this term, with the Coalition opening a lead of 50% to 44% on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, the balance being undecided. This compares with a Labor lead of 48% to 47% last time and a reversed result the time before, the latter being the only previous occasion when the Coalition led this term. We will have to wait upon the release of the full report later today for the primary votes. Despite this, The Guardian report relates little change on a monthly leadership on which respondents rate the leaders on a scale of one to ten, with 32% (down one) giving Anthony Albanese a rating of seven to ten and 35% (steady) a rating of zero to three. Peter Dutton had 31% at the top of the range, down one, and 34% at the bottom, up one.

UPDATE: The primary votes are Labor 29% (down three), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one), with undecided up one to 6%.

Further questions relate to campaign finance reform and the state of Australian democracy, recording a drop from 46% to 32% in satisfaction with the latter since immediately after the 2022 election and dissatisfaction up from 18% to 31%. There was strong support for truth-in-advertising laws (73%), real-time reporting of donations (64%) and donations caps (61%), though the related proposal of greater public funding found only 29% support with 35% opposed.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll is also less than stellar for Labor, recording a tie on two-party preferred after they led 51.5-48.5 result last time. However, this is more to do with a weaker flow of respondent-allocated preferences than changes on the primary vote, on which Labor is steady at 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 14% and One Nation down one to 4.5%. My own measure of a result based on 2022 election preferences has Labor leading 51.5-48.5, which is little different from last time.

We also have from The Australian further results from the latest Newspoll showing 51% support for fixed four-year parliamentary terms with 37% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

979 comments on “Federal polls: Resolve Strategic, Essential Research, Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Labor need more policy boldness. Even the ads they have got on TV promoting what they have achieved are wishy washy and don’t get the message they are trying to send across forcefully or clearly enough.
    And the Prime Minister is wishy washy too! It’s so frustrating because the government is light years ahead of the Coalition, but without the ‘force projection’ of the leader and the snappy one-liners. All I’ll add is that they had better get their heads out of their work and get out and about doing social politics, because all work and no playing footsie with the electorate makes the Labor government as dull as dishwater. And the electorate have noticed it.

  2. An appeals court panel said Monday that former president Donald Trump would be allowed to post a $175 million bond to stave off enforcement of a nearly half-billion dollar civil judgment against him and his business.

    The order Monday morning was a significant win for Trump, who was otherwise facing a massive cash crunch and the prospect of New York Attorney General Letitia James seizing some of his assets as soon as this week.

    However, while the five state judges on the panel lifted the financial cloud over Trump, they did not erase it entirely. They gave Trump 10 days to come up with the reduced bond of $175 million, saying they would only delay enforcement of the full amount if he put up that money within this window.


  3. There is normally an opinion poll which is different to others
    When you read essentials poll it always seems to have more lib/nats participants then the other party voters who participate

  4. Come on down plan B….
    No Submarines… just a US base in Perth..

    Is there a plan B? Well, nobody in Canberra seems to have one, but the US certainly does. It is set out, in considerable detail, in an official research paper prepared by the US Congress and is described as a “Military Division of Labor” whereby Australia would have no submarines. The US Navy would base some of their own in Perth, at the submarine base we are building for them, and Australia would invest the money it has saved into other capabilities. Or it could just hand over more cash to the US government – pay for our own protection perhaps, like South Korea or Japan do.


  5. This is outrageous. Clearly the ATO has taken a leaf out of Centrelink’s book with Robotax and now call blocking.

    One in four Australians who phone the Tax Office are being connected only to have their calls rejected without the option of joining the queue or agreeing to a callback.

    While the Australian Taxation Office publicly reports on average call wait times – one of its key performance measures – it does not publicly report on the number or proportion of calls that are rejected.

    More than 1 million calls have been rejected already this financial year. And the ATO acknowledged it did so to make the average wait on other calls appear more reasonable – despite already lowering its performance target for 2023-24.

    Before being rejected, callers received a recorded message stating “our service is currently experiencing peak demand and we are unable to answer your call at this time”.


  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Paul Karp outlines the results of the latest Essential poll.
    Voters have trimmed their support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s personal performance over the past month, highlighting a challenge for Labor in regaining lost ground on key measures such as trust, vision and strong leadership. David Crowe writes that the shift has cut Albanese’s net performance rating from minus 6 per cent to minus 11 per cent as voters drifted from Labor and increased their support for the Greens.
    Blaming John Howard is easy, but his government helped shape the world we live in – now and for future generations, explains Greg Jericho who hits the nail right on the head.
    Poor decisions by incompetent regimes have caused lasting harm in Australia, though the mainstream press would never admit it, says Alan Austin who writes about the remnants of the Coalition’s horrific economic damage that still linger today.
    Xi is preparing China for war, and for that, he wants to make sure all parts of the economy are geared to respond to centralised control, explains Peter Hartcher who tells us how Xi has deliberately crashed the real estate market and has changed the country’s priorities.
    Jack Waterford has written a cracker about religious freedom. Among other things, he says, “The right to believe anything, and the right to use those beliefs as an excuse to ignore general discrimination laws are two different things” and that we now need, it seems, a Voice for bigots.
    Victorian irrigator, Bill McClumpha, writes that time is fast running out for the degraded Murray Darling system, but 2024 brings a crucial window of opportunity to finally deliver in full the reform necessary for its sustainability – the Murray Darling Basin Plan. He calls for the resurrection of on-farm efficiencies that have been left on the table.
    Australia chose Aukus and now it faces the prospect of having no submarine capability for at least a decade, writes Malcolm Turnbull.
    David Marin-Guzman reports that unions will push for a 5 per cent increase to the minimum wage for more than 2.9 million workers, while employers will demand a major pay slowdown to offset record increases that “overcompensated” for inflation.
    State premiers are seeking urgent changes to a federal bid to overhaul the National Disability Insurance Scheme amid growing fears it will leave them with uncosted financial exposure to offset the soaring cost of the $42 billion scheme. The push comes after the premiers convened a sudden meeting on Monday to present a united case to Canberra to rethink the controversial proposal to set up a new disability system in the states and territories for children and others who may not need to join the NDIS.
    According to Millie Muroi, NAB’s outgoing chief executive Ross McEwan says Australia’s housing shortage could hamper economic growth and slow the inflow of migrants, as house prices continue to rise.
    The two modernist towers served Victoria’s road authorities as headquarters for six decades. Now abandoned, they stand on a busy corner in Melbourne’s inner east, waiting to go the way of the train station that was demolished to make way for them in 1957. With Australia in the grip of a generational housing crisis, one federal MP says the now-disused land in Kew must be redeveloped for social and affordable housing.
    The Guardian reveals that a GP opposed to the government’s vaping reforms and whose nicotine prescription website is being assessed by the drugs regulator has given school vaping education sessions and spoken at a student conference without declaring she has received financial support from a tobacco company.
    Angus Thompson reports that two men who argued they should be freed from immigration detention because they are owed protection have been released before their challenges were heard in court, fuelling accusations the government is sidestepping cases that risk the mass release of detainees.
    Constitutional expert Anne Twomey rejoices at the latest development in FoI struggles where a court ruled that ministerial reshuffles can no longer by used to block requests for information.
    A controversial former One Nation candidate who has won the backing of conspiracy theorists and is banned from stepping foot in Queensland parliament is likely to become the next mayor of Townsville. Troy Thompson – previously known as Troy Joseph Birnbrauer – has received support from the conspiracy theory group, My Place Townsville (MPT), which he has thanked for supporting him during his campaign. Nice work, Townsvillians!
    How ‘shrinkflation’ is impacting your cereal – and making you pay more for less. It’s rife.
    The NSW police media story has a life of its own. Kate McClymont and Max Maddison tell us about the latest developments. It’s getting a bit murky.
    The Australian Taxation Office denied debt relief to a taxpayer despite acknowledging the person was in serious financial hardship and at immediate risk of homelessness, according to details released by the tax ombudsman. The person, whose name was not disclosed, is one of many caught by the ATO’s widely criticised “robotax” scheme that has resurrected decades-old debts in pursuit of more than $15bn.
    Matt O’Sullivan tells us that work to stabilise an exclusion zone around a huge sinkhole near tunnels for the $3 billion M6 motorway in southern Sydney is expected to take several months as the state’s transport agency determines any repercussions for the project’s budget and completion date.
    The US Department of Justice anti-trust lawsuit against Apple is a reminder that these big US tech companies are just businesses, not benefactors, and like all businesses they incline, where possible, towards monopoly and rapacity, says Michael Pascoe.
    The major banks and some of the country’s largest retailers have extended a last-minute lifeline to Armaguard in a bid to keep the Lindsay Fox-owned cash transport firm alive. Lobbed last week, the emergency funding package, if accepted by Armaguard, would give the monopoly provider of large-scale cash delivery services financial support in the tens of millions of dollars to allow it to deliver cash until the second half of the year.
    “Australian farmland prices have doubled in the past decade. Is it time to put the ‘poor farmer’ narrative to bed?”, asks Gabrielle Chan.
    The casino regulator is turning predator with The Star on its menu, writes Elizabeth Knight who reckons Star’s shareholders should be put out of their misery.
    The second NSW inquiry into the culture of The Star Entertainment Group will be open to the public, after Adam Bell, SC, who is conducting the probe, deemed the coming hearings to be “in the public interest”.
    If you’ve got a dark roof, you’re spending almost $700 extra a year to keep your house cool, explain these contributors to The Conversation.
    A New York appeals court has more than halved the $US464 million ($709 million) penalty Donald Trump faced for civil fraud, halting the seizure of his assets and handing the former president another election-year lifeline. Instead, reports Farrah Tomazin, Trump will have 10 days to come up with a reduced bond of $US175 million, staving off a potential financial disaster that went to the heart of his reputation as a successful businessman.
    Thought Islamic State had been destroyed? Think again, warns Middle East and security analyst, Rodger Shanahan.
    Putin’s lethally negligent failure can’t be covered up. The Moscow attack leaves him weaker than ever, posits Simon Tisdall.
    Donald Trump has $4.6 billion worth of shares that he can’t sell, says Stephen Bartholomeusz who explains why he can’t sell them.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Cathy Wilcox

    Glen Le Lievre

    Matt Golding

    Mark David

    Alan Moir

    Andrew Dyson


    From the US

  7. Big turnaround in Pennsylvania polling…

    poll of PA is out! POTUS toplines as follows.

    Biden: 50%
    Trump: 45%

    First time Biden has cracked 50% in a PA poll recently. Regional distributions as follows – you can see why this is the case – even slight erosions in Philly + rurals can’t match SEPA.

  8. sprocket_,
    What makes Allegheny County so different from the rest of rural Pennsylvania? Except for the NW, which I think is near to Illinois? Hence, more urban?

  9. The adage that everything Trump touches dies is working its charms on the Republican Party. No wonder they are jumping ship.

  10. Part of my American road trip will be taking me across Pennsylvania and also to Chicago on the way to Yellowstone National Park. What a contrast!

  11. Donald Trump will begin his first criminal trial on April 15, a judge ruled Monday, at the end of a contentious hearing in which he repeatedly bludgeoned the former president’s legal team for claims of prosecutorial misconduct that the judge said were unfounded.

    New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan rejected Trump’s assertion that the Manhattan district attorney’s office acted improperly with regard to newly available evidence. He also insisted the trial over reimbursement of an alleged hush money payment was back on track after a delay he imposed earlier this month.

    Yet even as the judge signaled there was no stopping the case from moving forward on the new schedule, Trump’s lawyers said they aimed to file at least one additional motion, this time over pretrial publicity, that they hoped might push the trial back. The judge sounded very skeptical of such a motion.


  12. As I noted in the previous thread:

    This time the Guardian not only reports Essential’s distinctive ‘2PP plus’ number (Coalition 50%, Labor 44%, undecided 6%), but also converts that to a conventional 2PP figure ‘excluding undecided voters’ (53 – 47).

    Essential adopted ‘2PP plus’ in response to the 2019 polling failure. I’m wondering if they’re now edging back to the customary fotmat.


  13. Comment on twitter.

    Despite Putins best efforts to control the narrative, I am hoping his days are really numbered. Fingers crossed.


    Putin called the act of terror in Krokus City Hall “a link in a series of attempts of those who is at war with Russia since 2014 through the hands of Kyiv regime”.

    He said the attack was carried out by radical Islamists. Russia is interested in those who organized it, Putin said.

    Putin can’t make up his mind – are there fascists, Zionists or Islamists in Kyiv? And all of them were made up by Lenin, according to Putin.

  14. The win
    An appeals court threw the former US president a lifeline on the day he was at risk of seeing his property seized and bank accounts frozen.
    Trump had until today to hand over $US454 million ($694 million) after the state of New York successfully sued him for business fraud.
    The penalty followed a court finding he artificially pumped up the value of his assets to secure better deals on loans and insurance.
    However, after Trump’s team said he did not have the money to pay by today’s deadline, the appeals court cut the amount by more than half and extended the deadline for payment.
    He now has an extra 10 days to post the much smaller bond amount of $US175 million.

    The loss
    While New York’s intermediate appeals court was making its ruling on the civil matter, the former president was in another Manhattan courtroom for another case.
    Trump’s lawyers had asked a judge to throw out, or delay, one of his criminal cases — relating to “hush money” paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
    They argued the case, in which Trump has pleaded not guilty to falsifying business records, had been corrupted by “prosecutorial misconduct”.
    But judge Juan M. Merchan disagreed with their suggestions that prosecutors had covered up tens of thousands of pages of records from a related federal investigation.
    Prosecutors said only a handful of those newly released documents were relevant to the case.
    The judge said Trump’s lawyers should have acted much sooner if they believed they didn’t have all the records they felt they were entitled to.
    He ordered the trial to go ahead next month, with jury selection to begin on April 15.

    The other three big cases

    Trump’s team has had more success in delaying his other criminal matters:

    In Washington DC, his federal election interference trial has been put on hold until the US Supreme Court rules on whether he is immune from prosecution. That ruling is not expected until the end of June
    In Georgia, his state election interference trial hasn’t been scheduled. Earlier this month, a judge ordered that either the district attorney or her special prosecutor had to leave the case after they admitted they’d had a romantic relationship – but he said the trial could still go ahead
    In Florida, a federal judge is yet to set a date for Trump to go on trial for unlawfully keeping classified documents and lying about it. Prosecutors have proposed a July 8 start date, but Trump’s lawyers argue it should be delayed until August 12, or after the election on November 5


  15. “Three new federal voting intention polls have dropped in short order …”

    Nadia will be in heaven this morning …

  16. Victoria @ #NaN Tuesday, March 26th, 2024 – 7:39 am


    When are you due to depart for the USA.

    I leave on May Day! I thought it appropriate 😉

    Also, BK, as we are doing the full Hunter S.Thompson experience, ie I will be sat in a car watching the world go by but also doing a bit of the driving myself, then you will surely be assailed with my letters from America. If I survive because I keep telling my youngest son that once America meets me they may not like what I have to say. And they have guns! 😉

    Nevertheless, I will attempt to moderate myself, dependent upon the size of the heat the particular individual is packing. 😀

    Generally speaking I think I’ll be okay. Americans are disarmed by an Australian accent. 🙂

  17. The meeting on Monday, held at 5pm, resolved to ask Shorten to delay the draft law because the scope of the plan was inconsistent with the national cabinet agreement last December.
    Shorten trying to pull a swifty.
    That’s not like him.

  18. Law enforcement agents have reportedly raided Sean “Diddy” Combs’ homes in both Miami and Los Angeles in connection to a sex trafficking investigation.
    On Monday, March 25, Homeland Security officials told Los Angeles’ Fox 11 that the California raid was in connection with a federal sex trafficking investigation.

  19. Strange times at the moment.Left leaning Guardian via essential has libs ahead 53-47 is that correct?
    Fed labor is usually good at basics at Centrelink and tax office but are terrible this term.
    Meanwhile no change to the 7 billion failed job network.

    What is going on with Fed labor we had a major conference at old Parliament House in Canberra last week Shorten labor Minister was named falsely to attend ,fed speaker of parliament is investigating.Person behind this conference was sacked yesterday.NDIS full of rorts labor has had 18 months plus to sort it.

    Federal labor is a rabble housing disaster,immigration disaster,basics stuffing up as above and own goals from an unpopular leader who lied about tax cuts and fed labor conducted a failed referendum.What next fed labor gov ? More Boats?

    Once again fed labor was 57-43 sept 2022 in front.Now in big trouble.

  20. Thank you, BK.

    Hartcher’s article is interesting. The basic premise, that China is preparing for war is only somewhat right. The fact of the matter is that it is already at war. Xi, who occupies ALL key party and government positions (considerably more successful than Morrison) is at the heart of the matter. In the process Xi has kneecapped China’s wealthiest entrepreneurs.

    State sponsored hackers are doing all sorts of damage to trust in democracy. State sponsored hackers are trolling the Royals. Why? Probably to damage faith in democracy and in democracies’ institutions.

    Chinese military ships are monstering Philippines ships. A chinese merchant ship accidentally dragged its anchor for over a hundred km in the Baltic, severing Nordstream Pipeline and helping force Putin to build more fossil fuel infrastructure China’s way. China is busy severing Taiwan’s cables. China deals out nakedly aggressive economic punishment to recalcitrant nations.

    On the military front, China is adding the equivalent of the Australian air force to its air force every year. It is engaged in the biggest naval build up in world peace time history. Much of that is concerned with building a massive amphibious capability. It is massing missiles across Taiwan Strait. It routinely behaves in an aggressive manner with ships and planes in Taiwan’s air space.

    China has tidied up a once-thriving democracy in Hong Kong.

    China has cut a deal with the Houthies. Chinese ships get free passage through the Red Sea. The democracies’ ships are assaulted, damaged and sunk.

    It is only gradually beginning to dawn on those who espouse liberal values that Xi loathes liberal values and is actively engaged in a global struggle to smash them.

    Where I disagree with Hartcher’s analysis is on the the construction mess. My premise is that Xi cooked that mess up over a decade. He then realized that keeping the Ponzi scheme going was to make the eventual mess even bigger. So he is trying to deleverage it a bit at a time.

  21. UK Redfield & Wilton Strategies Labour leads by 20%.
    Labour 42% (-5)
    Conservative 22% (+1)
    Reform UK 14% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 12% (+4)
    Green 6% (–)
    Scottish National Party 2% (-1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 17 March

  22. Pied Piper: ‘Left leaning Guardian via essential has libs ahead 53-47 is that correct?’

    Well, the part about Essential having the Coalition* (not the Libs) ahead 53 – 47 is correct.

    The part about the Guardian being left-leaning is debatable. The parent publication was historically aligned with the centrist UK Liberals (actual liberals, not in the bastardised Australia sense). Which I guess makes it left-leaning when viewed through the right-skewed Overten window of the Australian media.

    And the part where you imply that a ‘left-leaning’ publication would produce polling skewed leftwards … well, you do realise that this is a psephology site, right?


    * Libs + LNP + gNats + CLP

  23. ‘Rewi says:
    Monday, March 25, 2024 at 10:04 pm

    Timor L’Este was never going to be free, until it was. ‘
    Something is inevitable until it happens.
    Alternatively, it is inevitable and it doesn’t happen.
    Argument by analogy is inevitable, I suppose.

  24. “ China has tidied up a once-thriving democracy in Hong Kong.”

    I needed a good laugh to start off the day. Thanks Boerwar. … BTW, how’s Fronzie’s leather jacket and water skis fitting you this morning, after Peter Hartcher clearly used them to write his DLP shit-sheet for the SMH?

  25. ‘BTW, how’s Fronzie’s leather jacket and water skis fitting you this morning …’

    I see what you did there. 🙂

  26. There’s a lot of political psychosis going around:

    Each time Vladimir Putin messes up, the same question is asked: will it make any difference? Last week’s terrorist attack on the Crocus City concert hall near Moscow, which killed 137 people, is one of the bigger crises Putin has faced in his 25-year rule. There is no doubt that he, as Russia’s head of state and overall chief of its security forces, bears ultimate responsibility for what was by any measure a catastrophic failure. In any normal political system, his resignation would be expected.

    The fact this is more or less unimaginable is not necessarily a sign of Putin’s strength. His dictatorship has eviscerated checks and balances within Russian society, eliminating means of independent scrutiny. Any call for him to take personal responsibility would barely be heard, let alone acted on. Yet the Russian people, while chronically misled and serially misinformed, are not stupid.

    With blood on the streets and a nation in mourning, there’s no hiding that the Putin superman myth just took a serious, bubble-bursting beating.

    The Kremlin is estimated to have spent more than £1bn on “information management”, meaning lies and propaganda, to ensure Putin’s recent presidential election “victory”. In addition, there was a reported 20-fold increase in state spending on internet and media. All this had a single aim: to portray Putin as an invincible, indispensable modern-day tsar who bravely protects Mother Russia from her enemies.

    Yet on Friday, four gunmen comprehensively demolished that myth in an anarchic frenzy of merciless violence. The attackers were unopposed, the victims had no warning, and all of Putin’s huge security apparatus – all this usurper king’s horses and men – were unable to stop the butchering of defenceless citizens.

    Even in a society as tied down as Russia’s, this lethally negligent failure will not be forgotten or forgiven.

    That’s on Putin. And it points to another fundamental weakness in his personal and political position: he is so out of touch, so isolated from day-to-day Russian realities, that he believes his own mendacious narratives. Despite explicit videos published online by Islamic State, which has admitted that it undertook the attack, Putin persists in blaming Ukrainian “Nazis”. This is beyond cynical. It’s borderline psychotic.

    (Simon Tisdall The Guardian UK)


  27. ‘There is not a jot of evidence to support this deranged calumny, fiercely denied in Kyiv. Yet it’s no surprise. Unsubstantiated conspiracy theories are Putin’s stock in trade. The expectation is that the Kremlin, not satisfied with the recent murder of leading regime critic Alexei Navalny, will exploit the attack to further suppress domestic dissent, expand political controls, escalate the Ukraine war, even order a mass mobilisation.

    If Putin is incapable of telling, or at least of accepting, the difference between reality and make-believe, it’s because he himself squats atop an edifice of lies. His power and his presidency are based on systemic falsehoods, fed daily to a captive nation on an epic scale. The basic contract, as it is sometimes called, between Putin and the people is that he delivers security and they deliver support. Yet this is the biggest lie of all.

    Putin does not give a damn for the security and the wellbeing of ordinary Russians. At Crocus City, the big lie was cruelly exposed. As innocent people died or writhed in agony, Putin silently skulked, sulked and schemed for 19 hours about how best to dodge the blame and spin the fallout.

    His selfish, cold-eyed insouciance has been witnessed again and again. Remember his callous attempts to ignore the Kursk submarine disaster in 2000 and the carnage he oversaw during the second siege of Grozny. Most recently it has led to the stupidest geostrategic blunder of modern times – his inept invasion of Ukraine – and resulting mass Russian casualties. He just doesn’t care.

    With Putin, it’s always all about him, about his own insecurity, his need for absolute power, his delusions of revived Russian imperial grandeur. It’s never about other people, let alone “the people”.

    The damage done to Russia by Putin’s war and the standoff with the west, in terms of lives, treasure and reputation, is incalculable. Yet it’s his abiding obsession. Everything he thinks and does appears related to it. Speaking after this month’s election, he vowed yet again to make it his main focus. Why? Because, deep in his shrivelled, desiccated heart, he knows it was a terrible mistake.

    Most Russians, understandably, do not share Putin’s obsession. Instead they see, with growing clarity, the harm his war does to their families, their living standards, their shrinking freedoms, their personal safety. Regime-manipulated polls are misleading. Many Russians want it to end. Their silence is not consent, nor does it signify approval. It is rooted in fear.

    Putin is vulnerable. He should have seen the terrorists’ attack coming. But arrogance and complacency blinded him. When the US generously shared an explicit heads-up about an imminent plot, he dismissed it as a disinformation ploy. When the security services should have been tracking Islamist militants, they were harassing opponents, journalists and gay people on his orders.

    Putin has remade the Russian state in his own image: brutal, incompetent, ignorant, distrustful, delusional and isolated. It is fundamentally weak, as is he. Incrementally, as one calamity succeeds another, his grip slips, his authority weakens and fear of him dissipates. The Crocus City atrocity will accelerate this process. It does make a difference.

    By helping shatter the altar screen of mythical omniscience behind which he cowers like a defrocked priest, it has forced Putin one more step down the road towards a final reckoning. It’s coming, do not doubt it. It’s coming.’


  28. Labor keeping most LNP policies is the problem. They are unlikely to return to the more compassionate policies of more support for the poor, adults and children, housing (everyone can see the HAFF is not enough ), schools, public hospitals. That Labor once promised. But many years ago. Even the outcome in Tasmania, 10 seats out of 35, indicates Labor is shown wanting.
    They are now a neo liberal party.

    And add some Greens policies – no new coal and gas (most people are aware global warming is a result of burning fossil fuels ), stopping land clearing.
    If Labor were really believers of climate change. But no, it seems.

    The genocide in Gaza, and Labor’s apparent support of Netanyahu’s polices will not go down well with many Australians.

    And the waste that is AUKUS, which Labor decision makers knew wouldn’t be supported by caucus, Labor members and voters but were more worried about media reporting they were weak on defence.

    Australians don’t want us tied up with the US and UK on Defence, which was Morrisons plan. One of the reasons his government lost in May 2022.
    The nonsense written by Peter Hartcher is just that – nonsense.

    More ‘drums of war’ rubbish. I guess it is designed to fool Australian that we must increase the Defence (Attack ) budget over needs of Australians at home.
    Australians aren’t buying it. But Labor is.

  29. Essentials TPP+ measure is really meaningless. How can you call something “+” if all that is different is it is leaving out part of the voters?
    Polling is supposed to give an indication how the vote is going to go, but what Essential is saying with TPP+ is we are unwilling to make a prediction.

  30. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Unbelievable that any Liberals are still running the nuclear thought bubble after every state and private investors have shot it down.

    It is unfortunate we do not see local level US news to appreciate how many legacy problems the US nuclear industry has. They have many 40+ year old reactors, civilian owned. There is no US Navy to step in and decommission them, so they soldier on because decommissioning them costs a fortune. They take a lot of maintenance and, like old coal power plants, have frequent shut downs. The tweet below is an example. Other incidents were in plants in Louisiana and Pennsylvania.

    Edwin Lyman@NucSafetyUCS·8h
    “Also, the state of #Michigan had two emergency #nuclear reactor shutdowns over the last few days: D.C. Cook-2 at 48 percent power on Friday and Fermi-2 at 23 percent power on Saturday.”

  31. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 8:34 am

    “ China has tidied up a once-thriving democracy in Hong Kong.”

    I needed a good laugh to start off the day. Thanks Boerwar. … BTW, how’s Fronzie’s leather jacket and water skis fitting you this morning, after Peter Hartcher clearly used them to write his DLP shit-sheet for the SMH?’
    Try telling that to the citizens of Hong Kong. Laugh a minute stuff?

  32. The federal by-election in cook with no Labor or teal or any other political threat

    liberal party primary vote under 50% is a failure

  33. Boerwar @ #42 Tuesday, March 26th, 2024 – 9:12 am

    ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, March 26, 2024 at 8:34 am

    “ China has tidied up a once-thriving democracy in Hong Kong.”

    I needed a good laugh to start off the day. Thanks Boerwar. … BTW, how’s Fronzie’s leather jacket and water skis fitting you this morning, after Peter Hartcher clearly used them to write his DLP shit-sheet for the SMH?’
    Try telling that to the citizens of Hong Kong. Laugh a minute stuff?

    Agreed. Andrew_Earlwood’s China Uber Alles schtick is becoming very obvious.

  34. Under 50% primary vote for the Liberal party in a very safe liberal party held seat, Dutton being Leader of the federal liberal party after October this year in doubt

  35. BS Fairman: ‘… what Essential is saying with TPP+ is we are unwilling to make a prediction.’

    Indeed. The 2019 polling fail spooked all of the pollsters.

    2PP-plus was Essential’s response. Questionable then, and it seems they’re now edging back to regular 2PP.

  36. Geez Chinese dictator preparing for war deliberately slowing economy to do so says Syd morn herald article.
    Wow .
    Hadn’t thought of that one

  37. Catmomma at 6;36
    Saying exactly what I’ve been thinking but too afraid to post for fear of reprisal….and name calling.
    As I have said before however, Labor doesn’t DO politics.

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