Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Slight movement away from Labor on voting intention amid an overall static result from Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 37% (up one), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Personal ratings are little changed, with Anthony Albanese up one on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Peter Dutton steady at 37% and up one to 52%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 47-35 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1223.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

363 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Kirsdarke says Monday, March 25, 2024 at 9:32 pm

    Both utes in this picture can carry the same amount of cargo in their trailer.

    Three guesses as to which one is the most fuel efficient.

    How about this one?

  2. “Australia’s AUKUS $$ to create 1000 jobs!

    In Britain.”

    It is a big big target they’ll be hoping Dutton doesn’t shoot at.

  3. ‘Slightly movement away from Labor on voting intention amid an overall static result from Newspoll.’

    Guardian Essential poll now accentuates a movement away from Labor — not in a static way:

    ‘… the opposition appears to have retained an edge in two-party preferred terms with 50% of voters planning to vote for the Coalition versus 44% for Labor while 6% remain undecided.

    ‘Excluding undecided voters, the Coalition leads Labor 53% to 47%, up from 50-50 earlier in March, indicating the results are volatile but trending in the opposition’s direction.’

    (Interestingly, I think that’s the first time I’ve seen Essential’s ‘2PP plus’ number converted to a conventional 2PP result in a report: 50/44/6 becoming 53-47. Maybe they’re working their way back to the customary measure?)

  4. More from Essential: line ball on leaders’ approval:

    ‘Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton’s approval ratings are largely unchanged. Both have a -3% net favourability rating, with 35% of people polled giving Albanese a negative rating of between 0 and 3 on a 10 point scale, and 32% a positive rating of 7 to 10. For Dutton, 34% rated him negatively and 31% positively.’

  5. Also from Essential:

    ‘… respondents were asked about a suite of electoral reforms. A majority supported:

    • Ensuring the content of political adverts is truthful (73%)

    • Real time reporting of donations to political parties (64%)

    • Caps on the value of donations companies or individuals can give to political parties (61%).’


    ‘Respondents weren’t enthusiastic about increased public funding to reduce reliance on donations, with 29% in favour, 35% opposed and 36% neither supporting nor opposing.’

  6. And Rishi Rich hits a Blackpool rock:

    ‘Rishi Sunak is to face another tricky byelection in the coming weeks after the former Conservative backbencher Scott Benton quit parliament before the conclusion of a recall petition among his constituents.

    ‘The Blackpool South MP was facing likely ejection from the Commons after he was suspended for 35 days over his role in a lobbying scandal …’

  7. “ Essential translation : the bell is tolling for Albo!”

    More pegging. I actually think SteelyDan might have to lend you a hand mate. Your bludging is now at that pitiful phase.

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