Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

Slight movement away from Labor on voting intention amid an overall static result from Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 37% (up one), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Personal ratings are little changed, with Anthony Albanese up one on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Peter Dutton steady at 37% and up one to 52%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 47-35 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1223.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

363 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 8
1 2 … 8

  2. Just more margin-of-error stuff – nothing has really changed since May 2022. The ALP has around a third of the primary vote, the Coalition has about 2-3 points more and the Greens seem to be at the top of their band (around 12%), for a narrow 2PP lead for Labor. Another narrow Labor majority next year seems all but certain, black swan events notwithstanding.

  5. Yes agreed – bit of a fair-squared result. 51-49.

    We could have a busy week with polls in the lead up to Easter.

    * Roy Morgan & Essential Media by Tues AM.
    * Resolve Poll (via the SMH/Age) is a day overdue, so any day now
    * Redbridge Political Compass (last was on 12-Feb), so again a bit overdue
    * YouGov – due around Thurs midday, although they may wait another week and drop after Easter

  6. Rainman says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 10:04 pm
    Mavis says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 8:37 pm
    I guess there are or have benevolent dictators – eg, Lee Kuan Yew; but they’re a rare breed indeed. And even Lee had an authoritarian streak from time to time:

    —————————————————————————-

    Lee Kuan Yew, darling of the Western elite. Much loved by Margaret Thatcher and Henry Kissinger. The man whose Internal Security Act imprisoned hundreds of political opponents in the 60s and 70s under its sweeping powers of arbitrary arrest and detention by executive order. The man who regretted giving women equal rights and education because it made it harder for them to find husbands. The man who said Australians were destined to become the white trash of Asia.

    Bless his little cotton socks.

  7. Not a lot to see here. But things will get more interesting when the budget comes out in May. The government is going to be able to add some sweetners to it as they will have returned a surplus for the first time in decades and then be able to go into deficit for 24/25 – easing cost of living pressures.

  8. With Rowan Ramsey retiring from the SA division of Grey next election, that could make things interesting there.

    While it is currently a safe Liberal seat, it has in the past been vulnerable to 3rd party candidates. In 2016, Andrea Broadfoot of the Xenophon team got within a 48-52 result.

    And in the last election in 2022, the Liberal primary vote got knocked below 50% to 45.3%, and had at least one Independent scoring double digits, so, if the Liberals pick a weak or controversial candidate, it could be vulnerable.

    It’s doubtful Labor would win it of course, even if it was won by them regularly in history, the politics have changed there. But it does remain one of the biggest federal divisions in the country so much could happen there.

  9. “ I guess there are or have benevolent dictators – eg, Lee Kuan Yew”

    What’s the point of being a dictator, if you are benevolent? Kind of defeats the purpose open the role, doesn’t it?

  10. As a centre-left to centre social liberal with moderate economic views, I find Lee Kwan Yew far from benevolent.

  11. Ooh, that’s a sudden thought, what if Jacinta Price nominates for Grey and switches from both the National to the Liberal party room and from NT to SA to attempt to get into the lower house?

  12. The west Australian is reporting that the newspoll says Albanese’s new year reset has flopped.
    Elsewhere it says West Coast played with dash and dare in their 10-goal drubbing by GWS.
    The paper’s sports reporters are more delusional than the politics team.

  13. The margin of error in a fair poll with a sample size of 1,223 is about 3%. It’s a status quo result. The National Rupert is talking out it’s backside as always: ”Federal Labor is drifting toward minority government at the next election with its primary-vote support now lower than at the last election.” They wish.

    No link. Paywalled.

  15. ‘Tim Wilson defeats two women to win Liberal preselection in Goldstein and set up rematch against teal Zoe Daniel’

    theguardian.com.au

  17. Rossmcg at 10.28 pm and WA bludgers

    What about the state’s politicians being delusional or in denial about the fate of endangered Black Cockatoos?

    There is a very good documentary on the Black Cockatoo Crisis in WA on NITV at 8.30 pm tonight.

  20. Dr D

    I’ve seen the black cockatoo doco.
    Sad business.
    Politicians just don’t care about extinctions,
    Koalas, ledbitters possum in Victoria, our cockatoos, parrots in Tasmania
    Reece Whitby the wA environment minister was a tv reporter. Been promoted many levels above his competence.

  23. @Steve777

    Peter Zeihan has some interesting perspectives so he’s worth listening to, but he’s so hyperbolic that you can’t take anything he says at face value.

  24. And speaking of YouTube commentators, has anyone else noticed John Cadogan (car guy) has veered in an anti-woke direction recently? He’s made multiple videos disparaging the new vehicle emissions standards and EVs more broadly.

    I had previously shared one or two of his videos where he (I believe rightly) pointed out that a home solar + battery system was a more financially sensible way to reduce personal emissions than buying an EV (which one could still do after sorting out home electrification).

  26. the truth of these figures is the Federal Libs are likely marginally in front – given there is usually a 1-2 point lift in the polls for the liberals when an election is called.

    the fear of RGR mk2 and the hope the budget is a circuit breaker / the economy turns is the best hope of Albo avoiding being swapped out mid year.

  27. Diogenes

    “ When was the last time Australia did anything to stop genocide knowingly?

    We’re lucky if we even oppose it.”

    East Timor? To a lesser extent our interventions in Bougainville and the Solomons back in the 1990s were to stop killing.

    But those are thirty years ago now. I would agree that ever since Tampa, September 2001 and the “War on Terror” we have been too busy blindly following USA into every foreign war we can to care about genocide, or human rights generally.

  29. How unsuprising! Classic NIMBY-ism.

    Twelve opposition MPs have publicly backed lifting the moratorium on nuclear power in Australia but will not commit to hosting a nuclear power plant in their own electorate.

    The Coalition is expected to release key details of its nuclear power policy before the federal budget in May. It supports lifting the moratorium implemented by the Howard government in 1998 and the introduction of small modular reactors and large-scale nuclear reactors.

    It has not yet announced potential locations for nuclear sites but has signalled its intention to place them near existing retired coal power stations so they could be more easily plugged into the grid.

    Nationals leader David Littleproud has already said he would welcome a nuclear power plant in his south-west Queensland seat of Maranoa. His predecessor, Barnaby Joyce, said he would do the same in his northern NSW electorate of New England. But another dozen Coalition MPs approached by this masthead on Sunday were unwilling to publicly welcome a nuclear power plant in their own electorate, though all said they supported their party’s position.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/not-in-my-backyard-liberals-nationals-go-cold-on-nuclear-20240322-p5feko.html

  31. less than 14 months to the federal election

    Lib/nats combined primary vote still stuck around the average , as Labor

    Still looking like a Labor majority around the same it is now , or slightly increase majority

  32. I’ve been following the gold story since my eldest son invested a couple of hundred thousand in it after the pandemic lockdowns and the world thought it was returning to normal:

    The Collins Street building in the city is gold central: at least 15 bullion traders are scattered across 16 levels among multiple jewellers, gemstone and diamond merchants. An odd assortment of legal offices, pawnbrokers and immigration agents fill in the gaps.

    “There’s probably more value in this building than any other in Australia,” a casual conversation with a gold seller behind the counter at Bullion Now, on the sixth floor, reveals. “It’s staggering.”

    The precious metal he is selling, bullion, is on a record run. This week, it crashed through a historic high of $US2200 ($3325) an ounce.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/speculate-in-bitcoin-hoard-gold-precious-metal-s-value-soars-20240308-p5fax4.html

  33. Safe to say that Anthony Albanese will surpass Tony Abbott reign as prime minister in less than 2 months time

    May disappoint those who are not labor supporters/voters

  34. And where would the money come from for nuclear plants?

    Nuclear energy ranks last on the list of climate technologies that big institutional investors want exposure to, according to a survey of climate conscious investors with $37tn under management.

    Fewer than one in 10 investors were exploring new investments in nuclear technology in the survey of the Investor Group on Climate Change, whose 100 members include super funds and asset managers looking after the funds of 15 million Australians.

    The survey found a rebound in confidence in Australia’s climate policy but a growing appetite for clear timelines for the phase-out of coal, oil and gas.

    The opposition, led by Peter Dutton, plans to propose locating nuclear power plants on the site of retiring coal power plants, claiming that this would save having to build new transmission infrastructure for renewables.

    But the plan has been widely panned. The energy department has estimated it would cost $387bn to go nuclear, and Dutton faces opposition from his own state colleagues.

    Australia’s big private electricity generators have dismissed nuclear energy as a viable source of power for their customers for at least another decade, and likely more.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/25/climate-conscious-investors-put-nuclear-dead-last-on-list-of-desirable-australian-ventures

  35. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Simon Benson’s wrap of the latest Newspoll begins with, “Federal Labor is drifting toward minority government at the next election with its primary vote support now lower than at the last election, as cost-of-living pressures erode its lead over the Coalition.”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-labor-heading-toward-minority-government-at-next-election/news-story/b9f5937dd4184f3c6650db668cde552a?amp=
    It has been a miserable weekend for the Liberals. In Tasmania, an 11 per cent swing left Australia’s last Liberal state government in an even more perilous position than it was when Premier Jeremy Rockliff called the early election to secure a majority. Meanwhile, in South Australia, writes George Brandis, Labor looks to have won the Dunstan byelection following the retirement of Steven Marshall. Add to that the Liberal Party’s failure to make any significant headway federally in the Dunkley byelection three weeks ago, and it is obvious that it continues to have a deep problem in southern Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/as-liberals-navigate-a-sea-of-red-the-greens-are-making-waves-of-their-own-20240324-p5ferp.html
    The politics of inequality are shifting rapidly, and the major parties are desperate not to get caught on the wrong side of the debate, writes Sean Kelly who says that for different reasons, then, both the Labor Party and the Liberal Party have growing incentives to take much larger steps on housing than anything we have seen so far.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/unstoppable-electoral-waves-are-approaching-but-who-will-be-washed-away-20240324-p5ferh.html
    The Budget will soon show the booming transfer of more wealth via negative gearing to the already wealthy. Harry Chemay reports on negative gearing and the political reality of politicians mollycoddling investors and leaving renters in the cold.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/housing-hunger-games-negative-gearing-trade-off/
    Net permanent and long-term movements data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) was recently used by the far right Institute of Public Affairs in a highly politicised analysis of the January 2024 data on NP&L-T movements. This ‘analysis’ was naturally picked up by the Murdoch press via the Daily Telegraph with very little scrutiny, writes Abul Rizvi.
    https://johnmenadue.com/why-we-shouldnt-believe-the-institute-of-public-affairsno-link-b/
    Tax cuts are not a substitute for much-needed wage boosts and Australia’s lowest-paid workers cannot have their pay go backwards during a cost-of-living crisis, the government says. The Commonwealth will make its submission to the Fair Work Commission on Thursday, before it decides changes to minimum wages and awards during its 2023-24 Annual Wage Review.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/2024/03/25/fair-pay-tax
    “Is Peter Dutton or News Corp leading the Coalition?”, asks Paul Negley who laments the deterioration of journalistic professional standards.
    https://johnmenadue.com/is-peter-dutton-or-news-corp-leading-the-coalition/
    The South Australian Liberals are in turmoil, and its leader under mounting pressure from within, as the party faces losing the state’s most ­marginal seat former premier Steven Marshall quit.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/south-australian-liberal-leader-david-speirs-under-mounting-pressure-after-the-party-faces-losing-the-states-most-marginal-seat-of-dunstan/news-story/62f2eb7ab6ee18ca23769aa85c75690f
    Another inflation-linked rise in minimum pay would ratchet the three-year increase to 18 per cent, sparking an investment warning from the Business Council.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-not-competitive-for-global-investment-ceos-20240324-p5fera
    According to David Tyler, Team Dutton duds women; snubs gender equality, bipartisanship and democracy.
    https://theaimn.com/team-dutton-duds-women-snubs-gender-equality-bipartisanship-and-democracy/
    Nuclear energy ranks last on the list of climate technologies that big institutional investors want exposure to, according to a survey of climate conscious investors with $37tn under management. Paul Karp reports that fewer than one in 10 investors were exploring new investments in nuclear technology in the survey of the Investor Group on Climate Change, whose 100 members include super funds and asset managers looking after the funds of 15 million Australians.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/25/climate-conscious-investors-put-nuclear-dead-last-on-list-of-desirable-australian-ventures
    Multinationals and some of Australia’s biggest businesses could be forced to beef up financial reporting if new a corporate minimum tax rate passes parliament before July 1, explains Tom McIlroy.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/new-minimum-tax-laws-could-fast-track-reporting-20240324-p5fets
    Paul Karp writes that the Albanese government has kept a lid on dissent over changes to the approval process for offshore gas projects, but a late internal push has seen the environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, regain a power to prevent consultation rules being watered down.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/25/labor-dissent-sees-pliberseks-veto-on-offshore-gas-project-rules-restored
    Nick McKenzie and Amelia Ballinger tell us about the security concerns arising out of the new relationship between Fiji and China. They identify the businessman at the top of Australia’s intelligence hit list.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/priority-target-the-businessman-at-the-top-of-australia-s-intelligence-hit-list-20240320-p5fdv8.html
    Olivia Ireland reports that the most senior Liberal member on the House of Representatives economic committee has spoken out supporting breaking up big businesses, as the Coalition debates its position on the Greens’ proposal to end the duopoly held by the big supermarkets. The Nationals have already backed it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-supermarket-busting-bill-labelled-extreme-by-business-but-has-liberal-backer-20240324-p5fet0.html
    “If it’s this hard for a council to build a single public toilet on land it owns, what hope do we really have of fixing housing, transport and other challenges facing our city?”, asks Michael Koziol writing about failures of planning and governance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-s-most-controversial-public-toilet-a-constipated-story-20240319-p5fdkd.html
    The federal Coalition faces a battle with the states on its proposal for nuclear power stations at the sites of decommissioned coal power plants, with state premiers and opposition leaders alike largely against Peter Dutton’s proposal. Labor governments and Coalition oppositions in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia are either outright opposed to the plan or have failed to endorse it.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/24/peter-dutton-liberal-leaders-nuclear-power-ban
    If Cranbrook governing council thought a quick resignation from headmaster Nicholas Sampson would bring about a swift end to its media agony, it was wrong, says the AFR.
    https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/emails-revealed-as-ousted-cranbrook-head-hires-top-silk-20240321-p5febd
    Mary Ward tells us that a year into the Minns government, tenants can still be lawfully evicted for no reason or have an application refused because they have a pet, with no date in sight for NSW’s long-awaited rental reforms.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/thousands-evicted-without-grounds-as-nsw-rental-reforms-drag-20240319-p5fdla.html
    After the Super Tuesday results signalled Trump would become the Republican presidential candidate in November, a first promise was that “We’re going to drill baby drill.” One of the most important reasons to watch American politics this year is that a Trump victory will push the world faster towards catastrophic climate heating.
    https://johnmenadue.com/a-republican-victory-in-2024-will-be-a-climate-disaster/
    Australia has more billionaires than ever – and that’s nothing to celebrate, says Victoria Devine who believes we should be calling on this select group to share their wealth at a time when more people than ever need some help.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/saving/australia-has-more-billionaires-than-ever-that-s-nothing-to-celebrate-20240322-p5fej7.html
    Putin will be ruthless after the Moscow attack, but Russians don’t trust him to keep them safe, writes Andrei Soldatov who says his brutal, repressive regime is good at belated investigation and torture, but lacks the capability to stop attacks happening.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/24/vladimir-putin-moscow-attack-crocus-city-hall-russians-terrorism
    Greg Barton muses over what the IS attack on Moscow could mean for the terrorism threat globally.
    https://theconversation.com/why-would-islamic-state-attack-russia-and-what-does-this-mean-for-the-terrorism-threat-globally-226464
    Poland said it would demand an explanation from Moscow after a Russian missile briefly breached Polish airspace during a massive missile attack on Ukraine, prompting the NATO member to put its forces on heightened readiness.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/24/poland-activates-air-force-as-western-ukraine-and-kyiv-come-under-massive-russian-attack

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Alan Moir

    Peter Broelman


    Jim Pavlidis

    Badiucao

    Matt Golding

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US














  36. Hugoaugogo says:
    “Just more margin-of-error stuff …”

    Yep. But the commentators have columns to fill with their pseudo-punditry about a point up here and a point down there.

  38. Thanks BK.

    On today’s Rowe, the sports reporter on the news last night referred to the grand prix as “the other race that stops the nation.”

    I had no idea the race was on and certainly would not have disrupted my day to watch it if I was aware. I’d bet I was with the majority on that front.

  40. ‘It has been a miserable weekend for the Liberals. In Tasmania, an 11 per cent swing left Australia’s last Liberal state government in an even more perilous position than it was when Premier Jeremy Rockliff called the early election to secure a majority. Meanwhile, in South Australia, writes George Brandis, Labor looks to have won the Dunstan byelection following the retirement of Steven Marshall. Add to that the Liberal Party’s failure to make any significant headway federally in the Dunkley byelection three weeks ago, and it is obvious that it continues to have a deep problem in southern Australia.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/as-liberals-navigate-a-sea-of-red-the-greens-are-making-waves-of-their-own-20240324-p5ferp.html

    I’ve said it multiple times, and about 11% of the Liberal vote seems to think likewise, that the Liberal drift to the Hard Man Right is not what former Liberal voters are wanting from the Liberal Party. They don’t want the LNP Party! No amount of lipstick on the Peter Dutton porker will disguise that.

  41. Diogenes says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 10:42 pm
    When was the last time Australia did anything to stop genocide knowingly?

    We’re lucky if we even oppose it.

    ——————-

    We certainly know the Albanese government supports genocide in Israel. Why he has been taken to the International Criminal Court.

    March 4, 2024. SBS. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dismissed a letter to the International Criminal Court that accuses members of federal parliament of supporting alleged war crimes in the Hamas-Israel war.

    Albanese said the 92-page document, written by Sydney-based law firm Birchgrove Legal, did not have any credibility.

    The law firm’s communique said the government, including the prime minister, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles, as well as Opposition leader Peter Dutton, provided “explicit political, rhetorical, moral, military and material support” for alleged war crimes carried out by Israel.

    Interesting how the Albanese government supports Israel, yet condemns Putin. Both are conducting war crimes.

    Egyptian Intelligence warned Israel a few days before the October killings of Israelis there would be an attack on Israel from Gaza. Netanyahu denied he had received any warning.

    US Intelligence warned Russia that there was a possibility of an attack a few days before the recent concert killings. Putin denied he had received any warning.

    Not much difference between Netanyahu and Putin.

  45. LOL: Twelve opposition MPs have publicly backed lifting the moratorium on nuclear power in Australia but will not commit to hosting a nuclear power plant in their own electorate.

    The Coalition is expected to release key details of its nuclear power policy before the federal budget in May. It supports lifting the moratorium implemented by the Howard government in 1998 and the introduction of small modular reactors and large-scale nuclear reactors.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/not-in-my-backyard-liberals-nationals-go-cold-on-nuclear-20240322-p5feko.html

  46. Thanks BK. The vibe today appears to be treading water, despite our lacklustre Fourth Estate’s attempt to sensationalise.

  48. Victoria says:
    Monday, March 25, 2024 at 7:40 am
    Griff

    F1 finished up yesterday with a record attendance. Go figure

    _________

    Thanks! I used to follow back in Prost and Senna days. I am feeling old 🙂

  49. Holdenhillbilly @ #45 Monday, March 25th, 2024 – 7:41 am

    LOL: Twelve opposition MPs have publicly backed lifting the moratorium on nuclear power in Australia but will not commit to hosting a nuclear power plant in their own electorate.

    The Coalition is expected to release key details of its nuclear power policy before the federal budget in May. It supports lifting the moratorium implemented by the Howard government in 1998 and the introduction of small modular reactors and large-scale nuclear reactors.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/not-in-my-backyard-liberals-nationals-go-cold-on-nuclear-20240322-p5feko.html

    Gutless. 😆

Comments Page 1 of 8
1 2 … 8

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *