The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead at 51-49, in from 52-48 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down one), Coalition 37% (up one), Greens 13% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). Personal ratings are little changed, with Anthony Albanese up one on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 51%, Peter Dutton steady at 37% and up one to 52%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister out from 47-35 to 48-34. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1223.
Ministers will accuse China of a “malign attack” on Britain’s democratic institutions after it accessed the personal details of 40 million voters in a hack on the election watchdog.
Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, is expected to tell MPs in a statement to parliament on Monday that the security services have identified malicious Chinese cyberattacks on bodies including the Electoral Commission.
Dowden is expected to announce that as a result of the findings, the UK will look at sanctions on Chinese officials implicated in human-rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.
The complex cyberattack on the Electoral Commission is understood to have begun in August 2021 but was not identified until October 2022. The authorities only acknowledged the attack in August last year, and at the time did not attribute blame.
As part of the attack, the Chinese were able to access copies of the electoral register including the name and address of anyone in Great Britain who was registered to vote between 2014 and 2022.
The sanctions, which can include asset freezes and travel bans, were said to have been controversially suspended indefinitely in November at around the same time that Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton became foreign secretary. Senior government sources described the attacks as “incredibly serious” and said ministers were determined to publicly “call out” China.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-accused-of-malign-attack-with-electoral-commission-hack-rbk66xrm7
C@t, near enough to 12%, actually (11.9%).
The Liberals lost a quarter of their primary vote. Kevin Bonham hypothecates the 2PP at 53.5 – 46.5 to Labor.
Nevertheless, Rockliff leapt up on Saturday night for a victory lap.
There should be no reason for lib/nats propaganda media units getting nervous for the cook by-election
They likely will though , any kind of swing against the liberal party in an by-election with no Labor candidate , disaster for the Dutton
C@t and Oliver fighting over the bragging rights for Tassie labor’s 29.2%. Bless!
Thanks for the roundup BK. Like you I found the focus on Labor’s “drift” hard to square with the weekend’s electoral results.
Tasmania’s election result seems a complete dog’s breakfast to me and I see no obvious pattern.
If there was a trend that was not discussed much the Greens result in Dunstan was impressive (+8%). They campaigned as much on housing affordability and better public transport as the environment. Labor’s candidate and campaign was also good.
This result bodes well for Sturt in the Federal election. State seat Dunstan is in Sturt. The same swing would flip Sturt to Labor.
No C@tfighting from me, Lars. 🙂
Tasmanians took to the Liberals with baseball bats. Not that you’d know it from the media reporting, though.
According to the lib/nats and their propaganda media units
The 3 federal by-election which has been held were the so called cost of living referendums on federal labor government
results
Liberal party safe seat of Aston – Labor primary vote increased , Federal Labor government won off the liberal party
LNP very safe seat of Fadden – Labor primary vote was around the same as 2022 federal election result
Labor seat of Dunkley – Labor primary vote increased
Oliver Sutton @ #52 Monday, March 25th, 2024 – 7:54 am
Yeah I was in the Tally Room, it was a weird one to say the least.
But things like 2pp are absolutely meaningless in electoral terms because we don’t have single member seats. So it’s of note but of no relevance.
And yes, LVT is correct 29.2% primary is nothing to crow about. It’s shit and didnt break 30% for the entire campaign. No Labor party is forming government with that level of support. Hare Clark probably accentuates the move away from the two major parties as micro and indis only need around a 6% primary to give them a chance of collecting a quota as preferences get divvied out.
The Tasmanian liberal party primary vote of 36.6% is also nothing to crow about, when they have no chance of majority government
Mostly Interested: ‘But things like 2pp are absolutely meaningless in electoral terms because we don’t have single member seats.’
Indeed (which is why I said ‘hypothecates’).
The seat count currently stands at 13 Liberals, 10 Labor, 4 Greens (ABC). Liberals on 36.8%; Labor + Greens 42.6%.
Now, if only Labor could cure its pathological fear and loathing of the Greens … 😉
Victoria says:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 7:52 am
Griff
Apparently the Netflix series on F1 has caused a big renewed interest in the discipline.
__________
I shall add to the watch list.
#weatheronPB
The grey rain still falls.
Small, but oh, so persistent,
its drops wet the earth.
Oliver Sutton @ #60 Monday, March 25th, 2024 – 8:29 am
As is discussed in the Tas election blog, the times when Labor has partnered with the Greens has always ended in acrimony and electoral wipe out. I’m guessing that the choice between a possible, but not probable, 4 year government and being sent back to the wilderness for another decade in 2028 wasn’t really appealing.
Senator Nick McKim, ex-leader of the Tas Greens and partner to Cassy O’Connor also an ex-leader of the Tas Greens and who is running for Tas upper house, has a level of antipathy towards Labor that is only eclipsed by his hatred of the Liberal party. He is massively involved in the state Greens strategic direction and policy setting(i.e. leads it).
The risk profile of a government agreement between Labor and the Greens is so far in the red even communists would blush at the brightness of it.
Friday 22, 2024. ‘Blanket exemptions allowing religious schools to discriminate against staff and students on the basis of sexuality and gender identity should be repealed, a key report to the federal government has recommended’.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2024/mar/21/landmark-report-calls-for-removal-of-discrimination-exemptions-given-to-australias-religious-schools
These religious, Catholic schools here are the most active, are paid taxpayer money to continue this discrimination.
If Labor was serious about stopping discrimination they would warn these schools they would cut their funding if they still continued to discriminate. Funding should only be provided to schools who follow the secular curriculum.
The 64% of Australian students attending the poorly Federal funded public schools would benefit from extra money for more resources and teachers.
I would hope the at least 4 prominent Catholics in the Labor government- Albanese, Shorten, Chalmers, Farrell are not looking away from this discrimination in Catholic schools.
Waiting Education Minister Clare??
Rossmcg says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 11:17 pm
‘Dr D
I’ve seen the black cockatoo doco.
Sad business.
Politicians just don’t care about extinctions,
Koalas, ledbitters possum in Victoria, our cockatoos, parrots in Tasmania
Reece Whitby the wA environment minister was a tv reporter. Been promoted many levels above his competence.’
————————
Some individual politicians actually do care about extinctions. They are routinely marginalized.
But they are captive to the vast majority of voters who care much more about their personal consumption which, in turn, is based on infinite growth. Under this coupling the environment becomes infinite source and infinite sump… until it turns that it is neither. Even the Greens – presumably the repository of voters who may have an interest in extinctions – support policies that are, de facto, extinction drivers.
CO2 is not the first global example of the environment failing to act as infinite sump.
The Labor/Greens Government in the ACT is a classic example of what happens when the political, economic and environmental realities hit the road. After a couple of decades of this duumvirate, the rate of local extinctions within the ACT has certainly not slowed down and may even be accelerating. The political alternative, such as it is, would only accelerate the rate of extinctions.
At a personal level, Australian individuals who claim to be concerned about extinctions routinely consume resources at much the same level as other Australians. They fly. They tourist. They eat meat. They eat dairy. They occupy housing space close to the world-beating average. Of course if they are really against extinctions they vote for the Greens, thus ensuring that their consumerism will never seriously be impacted in practice.
Oh. They righteously demand that the major parties, government agencies, farmers and industry to do for them what they resolutely refuse to do themselves.
late Sept 2022 not 63 -sorry four seasons- labor was 57 -43 now 51-49.
Hanging on in minority gov territory and facing higher for longer inflation due to failure to reduce migration pressure on housing etc etc -starts going backwards-due to appeal tribunals stacked with lefties.
The irony is federal labor party has supported this over the years.
A leader who lied about tax cuts and remember they are liberal tax cuts not labor.
Libs did better than I thought in Tassie .
Grand Prix each year costing vic taxpayers 100 million that’s a lot of public housing ,teachers,nurses etc that could be spent on.120 billion in state vic labor debt going to 200 some say 250billion.Taxes in VIC through the roof that’s before a horror budget in 6 weeks.
215 billion train tunnel system for the burbs also about to start in vic more debt by labor.
215 billion yep that’s right!
‘Mostly Interested says:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 8:38 am
Oliver Sutton @ #60 Monday, March 25th, 2024 – 8:29 am
Now, if only Labor could cure its pathological fear and loathing of the Greens … ;-
As is discussed in the Tas election blog, the times when Labor has partnered with the Greens has always ended in acrimony and electoral wipe out. I’m guessing that the choice between a possible, but not probable, 4 year government and being sent back to the wilderness for another decade in 2028 wasn’t really appealing.
Senator Nick McKim, ex-leader of the Tas Greens and partner to Cassy O’Connor also an ex-leader of the Tas Greens and who is running for Tas upper house, has a level of antipathy towards Labor that is only eclipsed by his hatred of the Liberal party. He is massively involved in the state Greens strategic direction and policy setting(i.e. leads it).
The risk profile of a government agreement between Labor and the Greens is so far in the red even communists would blush at the brightness of it.’
———————
The Greens used to claim that they were friends of Labor, all progressives together and that sort of thing. All the while they were targeting Labor seats and routinely lying about Labor.
The really excellent thing is that the Greens are no longer trying this line of bullshit.
The Greens want to destroy Labor.
Redbridge poll in the Herald Sun.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/coalition-records-best-primary-vote-result-since-june-2021-poll/news-story/a8656e6e9eafd8960765483a9ffb51e8
A new statewide poll of 1559 Victorians shows the Coalition’s primary vote has jumped 4 per cent to 38, its best result since June 2021.
At the same time, Labor’s vote has dipped to 36 per cent, slightly lower than the 37 it recorded at the 2022 election.
On two-party preferred, Labor still leads the Coalition 54 to 46, but senior ALP figures have raised concerns about a continuing downward trend.
France’s government increased its security alert warning to the highest level Sunday after the deadly attack at a Russian concert hall and the Islamic State (IS) group’s claim of responsibility.
Socrates
We can hardly count Timor as genocide.
Obviously in WWII we helped stop genocide but were unaware it was happening.
Oliver Sutton
“ Now, if only Labor could cure its pathological fear and loathing of the Greens … ”
Worth noting that in my booth at Dunstan on Saturday night there was very tight preference sharing betweeen Labor and Greens, with approx 85% of Green votes preferencing Labor. Assuming nothing strange turns up in the pre-poll votes today Green preferences will hopefully give Labor Dunstan.
The campaign here was generally positive from both Labor and Greens with both preferencing each other. A message for Tassie?
Dio
Fair enough on East Timor. It was the closest example I could think of. My point was meant to agree with you. Otherwise I cannot think of a single example in 30 years.
Chris Bowen is preparing to lower Australia’s proposed high fuel efficiency standards for petrol vehicles following US President Joe Biden’s big backdown on American standards and pressure from Thailand, Japan and the domestic automotive industry.
Australia’s backdown is likely this week as parliament prepares to break before the May budget sittings and after a secret meeting last Thursday between the Albanese government and local automotive industry representatives.
Climate Change Minister Mr Bowen and Transport Minister Catherine King have previously promised to give the automotive industry a chance to respond to the policy plans, designed to set a New Vehicle Efficiency Standard that “seeks to catch up with the US around 2028”.
The Australian efficiency standards, designed to cut fuel emissions and promote the sale of electric vehicles, are a crucial part of Mr Bowen’s carbon emissions reduction targets.
The new laws will set fuel efficiency standards on new cars being sold in Australia that will require car companies to supply more fuel-efficient vehicles by targets set on the average emissions per kilometre for new cars sold.
Mr Bowen has repeatedly linked his plan to the US fuel efficiency proposals although they were much higher than the American standards in the short term, and he denied the Australian standards would increase the cost of cars in Australia or reduce the range of imported vehicles.
But Thai and Japanese car exporters claim the changes would mean large numbers of cars would not be able to be sent to Australia, the relatively small market did not warrant lifting standards well beyond other nations and the electric vehicles market was too small and slowing.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/chris-bowen-bows-to-pressure-to-lower-fuel-efficiency-standards/news-story/7adc6bd67850c0e2136edb123ebd6ea3?amp
This ‘Pied piper’ dude really hates immigrants. They are the root cause of every problem, apparently.
China, Russia and Iran are fuelling disinformation about the Princess of Wales to destabilise the nation, Whitehall sources believe. Senior Government figures fear that hostile states are behind the spread of wild conspiracy theories and online rumours surrounding the Princess’s health.
After the Princess announced her cancer diagnosis on Friday evening, Rishi Sunak led the condemnation of social media trolls for targeting her online in recent weeks. But his intervention did not deter further frenzied commentary, with a disinformation chief saying on Sunday that the Princess had been “revictimised” by trolls criticising her for not publicly revealing her diagnosis sooner.
On Sunday, it emerged that there was growing concern in Whitehall that hostile state actors could be involved in whipping up the frenzied social media attacks on the Princess. A government source told The Telegraph: “Part of the modus operandi of hostile states is to destabilise things – whether that is undermining the legitimacy of our elections or other institutions.” It comes as Downing Street is preparing to announce fresh sanctions on China as soon as Monday, after a wave of state-backed cyber attacks against a group of senior MPs and peers.
”
The South Australian Liberals are in turmoil, and its leader under mounting pressure from within, as the party faces losing the state’s most marginal seat former premier Steven Marshall quit.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/south-australian-liberal-leader-david-speirs-under-mounting-pressure-after-the-party-faces-losing-the-states-most-marginal-seat-of-dunstan/news-story/62f2eb7ab6ee18ca23769aa85c75690f
”
If you read Lars commentary it is as if Dunstan by-election did not happen at all last weekend.
Thankfully for Lars, WB Dunstan by-election result website did not work for first couple of hours and hence there wasn’t much discussion about Dunstan by-election result on PB.
For Lars, the most important news from last weekend election was Tasmanian Labor PV is less than 30%. The justification as per Lars for Liberal PV being around 37% is that it is in sinc with L-NP national polling although there is swing of almost 12 % against Liberals (I don’t understand why those 2 need to be compared when FUBAR stridently posted that the voting will be different for federal election. But that is another story).
Oh, I do agree that a PV of 29.2 % is bad for Tasmanian Labor because there is hardly any movement in PV since they last lost election in 2014.
The thing is Liberals lost 25% of their PV (as pointed by OS). Kevin Bonham posted that if this result is repeated in federal election then 2PP in favour of ALP will be 53.5-46.5
Re Tasmania, I get the following percentages of primary votes:
Left / Centre Left (ALP+Green+Animals) —> 44.1%
Right (Liberal + Shooters) —> 39.1
Centre (Lambites + Someone Else) —> 16.8
To me, that doesn’t look like a great result for the Right.
Thank you Boerwar – that is so true. 🙂
I was helping on a booth during the recent BCC elections and the vitriol from the Greens was disgusting.
Artificial intelligence may of played a role in royal rumours etc .AI may of just weaponised massively China and Russian disinformation and influence.
Tech just gets adopted in a race the laws catch up later.
Regarding the Tasmanian election I heard the Labor leader call for a change in the number of seats in the Hobart parliament from the current number of 35 so that majority governments have a better chance of happening. Does she want the number lowered or increased?.
If you divide the state population of 540k by 35 that means there is a representative for every 15k of voters. This would be 3-4 times more than the average ratio of the mainland states wouldn’t it? .
The majority of Australians ignore the homegrown genocide as was identify by the Voice referendum.
I guess the attitude is if “we” as a majority ignore “it”, it will all disappear.
At some stage the international pressure on Australia to recognize and acknowledge the homegrown genocide that has occurred against the First Australians will be inescapable and the pressure to make amends will be just as inescapable.
It is of no surprise that the Australians attitude to Gaza is at best “concern” but mostly feint acknowledgement.
Daniel Plainview @ #80 Monday, March 25th, 2024 – 9:29 am
This is true, but you do need a baseline of MPs for cabinet positions for policy implementation. At 25 MPs both parties have seen burn out of their talent. They initially colluded to do this to shut the Greens out in 1998, but it didn’t succeed, because “voters”.
What I do find fascinating, and not sure there’s a study on this, is that having 5 seats with 7 members really seems to push the Hare Clark system to breaking point. I don’t know if that system has a recommended approach to mixed-member proportional representation (MMP or MMPR). I tried to do some reading on the NZ system but that is sufficiently different to Tasmania as to be a meaningless comparison.
If the major parties wanted to muscle out smaller parties and indis they could look at thresholds for primary votes plus quota distribution as a method of doing so. But the law of unintended consequences would probably mean they stuff it up in an unexpected way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system_of_New_Zealand#Mixed-member_proportional_(MMP)_representation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed-member_proportional_representation
I wonder how the election would have gone with single member electorates. Someone probably could use William’s booth numbers to do a rough calculation. Under FPP the Liberals would have won, but with preferences it is a much harder story.
”
Oliver Suttonsays:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 7:06 am
‘Simon Benson’s wrap of the latest Newspoll begins with, “Federal Labor is drifting toward minority government …”’
That will earn Annie Oakley’s squeeze a place of honour in Kevin Bonham’s despised ‘Hung Parliament Club’.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/04/poll-roundup-federal-hung-parliament.html
”
Is it possible Lars and Simon Benson are comparing notes? 🙂
”
Irenesays:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 7:37 am
Diogenes says:
Sunday, March 24, 2024 at 10:42 pm
When was the last time Australia did anything to stop genocide knowingly?
We’re lucky if we even oppose it.
——————-
We certainly know the Albanese government supports genocide in Israel. Why he has been taken to the International Criminal Court.
March 4, 2024. SBS. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has dismissed a letter to the International Criminal Court that accuses members of federal parliament of supporting alleged war crimes in the Hamas-Israel war.
Albanese said the 92-page document, written by Sydney-based law firm Birchgrove Legal, did not have any credibility.
The law firm’s communique said the government, including the prime minister, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defence Minister Richard Marles, as well as Opposition leader Peter Dutton, provided “explicit political, rhetorical, moral, military and material support” for alleged war crimes carried out by Israel.
Interesting how the Albanese government supports Israel, yet condemns Putin. Both are conducting war crimes.
Egyptian Intelligence warned Israel a few days before the October killings of Israelis there would be an attack on Israel from Gaza. Netanyahu denied he had received any warning.
US Intelligence warned Russia that there was a possibility of an attack a few days before the recent concert killings. Putin denied he had received any warning.
Not much difference between Netanyahu and Putin.
”
Irene
Before 9/11 terrorist attack it is reported that US Intelligence had received an imminent terrorist attack, which as per report was conveyed to Bush jr. administration.
Based on your argument, not much difference between Bush jr, Putin and Netanyahu.
”
Aaron newtonsays:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 7:43 am
so turns out sa liberals turn to the right under speers did not work plusnews pole showing litle change
”
Based on 2022 federal election, QLD and TAS were tough states electorally for ALP. Nothing much changed based on QLD state by-elections, Brisbane Council elections and Tasmania state election.
Every other elections till now after 2922 federal government election was a rejection of LNP even though popular Premiers in WA, VIC and QLD have resigned.
It appears Australian people below the Tweed heads line live in a different world to the people above it.
Note re that 53.5 figure I quoted for Tas, that is what the 2PP would have been if Tasmania had compulsory preferential voting. But we don’t, at party level it is much more like OPV. It is possible to construct a sort of Hare-Clark 2PP and my estimate is 50-50 or maybe a slight edge for Labor. A narrow majority wanted the government gone (there are various sources of poll evidence that that is the case too) but not all of those will have voted through in a way to properly indicate that.
The vast majority of post-WW2 genocides have been a result of internal conflict within a nation state’s borders.
Because of the sovereignty of the nation state in international law, neither the UN nor any individual state has jurisdiction or authority to intervene without committing an act of aggression.
Nonetheless, such acts have occurred where a broad coalition was able to be formed and there was no significant resistance by a member of the Security Council. Somalia is one of the very few examples where this was attempted. Yugoslavia is (kind of) another.
When the military junta in Myanmar commenced its ethnic cleansing campaign against the Rohingya an international campaign to create a new justification for intervention, the Responsibility to Protect, was mooted but gained little traction.
States were opposed either because they didn’t want the international ‘community’ intervening in their affairs or didn’t want the obligation to actually stand up for what they say they believe in.
Mostly Interested at 9.41 am
Dr Bonham disparages the NZ MMP system. Basically because it rewards failed electorate MPs through the list system. The leading historical and current example is W. Peters. He lost his former electorate seat of Tauranga yonks ago, but is now a major influence on the direction of the current government.
laughtongsays:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 8:48 am
“A new statewide poll of 1559 Victorians shows the Coalition’s primary vote has jumped 4 per cent to 38, its best result since June 2021.”
– – – – –
Amazing result, considering the rumors of a challenge to John Pesutto before the BCC/Ipswich West Election.
HH: The complex cyberattack on the UK Electoral Commission is understood to have begun in August 2021 but was not identified until October 2022. The authorities only acknowledged the attack in August last year, and at the time did not attribute blame.
Me: The Cyber attack was not identified for over 1 year. Is this normal? If it was not identified for over an year, then it is like shutting the gates after the horses bolted leaving lot of poo in the Aegean stables.
Dr Bonham seems to be watching the blog today, can you point me to any reading on HC or MMP which makes some research based recommendations of how best to implement it?
Does Tasmania have a case of too much democracy, i.e. so much representation of smaller blocks of voters that it makes parliament too multivarious? Of course that last sentence of mine is all based on a value judgement, the other side would be that, as the system is today disenfranchised voters get a voice in parliament.
Holdenhillbilly @ #75 Monday, March 25th, 2024 – 9:11 am
And if you don’t think it’s happening in Australia, and on social media here as well, then you have your head in the sand.
Despite L’arse’s endless anti-Labor gaslighting take, I think the two takeouts of the Tasmanian election are thus: 1. there is no good news for the federal coalition in Tasmania. The best that a Dutton led coalition can hope for is a status quo result next year. Any dreams of adding Lyons to the coalition column have disappeared; and 2. There is no bad news for federal Labor from Saturday. The worst case scenario for federal Labor is that they simply retain Lyons and Franklin at the next federal election. A Hare-Clarke vote of around 30% is no worse than what Labor acheived at the previous four state elections, and provides no evidence that ‘the baseball bats’ are out for Labor federally.if Wilkie retires labor will likely pick up Clarke as well.
In fact there is no evidence that ‘the baseball bats’ are out for Labor federally. No baseball bats were out at the recent Dunkley byelection; nor the SA state byelection on Saturday. The only ‘baseball bat’ type anti labor polling seems to be confined to the Queensland state government; but even there it is hard to parse that into a foretaste of a looming federal disaster for Labor in Queensland next year: largely for two reasons: 1. On current polling the state LNP is looking at a comfortable win, but not a state labor wipeout, alla 2012. In fact Labor’d state polling is still comfortably ahead of Labor’s last few federal election results; and 2. Labor is already at a low base in queensland federally. It just doesnt seem very likely that any of the five seats it currently holds would be at jeopardy of being lost to the LNP next year.
All this malarkey that federal Labor is heading for minority government is at best wish casting, by the Labor phobic stooges on bludger. At this stage of the electoral cycle, the only two seats that I can think of that may fall out of the Labor cloud on a 51-49 2PP federal election result are Solomon in the NT and Gilmore in NSW. However, things seem to go from bad to worse for the Liberals in Victoria, so despite its already high base, labor may well pick up a couple of seats there to compensate. An average of a 51-49 2PP position, which seems to be about where things are stabilised over the past 3-5 months, is a pretty normal mid-term position for an encumbent government that is well on its way to being re-elected at the next national election.
Further, with inflation coming off the boil & the budget healthy, the government is well placed to implement two big ‘cost of living’ packages without frightening the reserve bank into lifting interest rates: one at the May Budget, and the other before the actual election (whether that be at some ‘mid year budget update’, an early 2025 budget or as election pledges in the actual campaign). Interest rates are likely to fall in the second half of this year, net migration will stabilise at 250K, some of the housing initiatives will start to take effect and at some stage this year the promise to drop electricity proves by $250 will be met. With all that in mind, it is more likely than not that Labor’s 2PP polling will actually increase – very slowly – over the next 12 months to somewhere north of 52-48.
Liberal recriminations flew Sunday night as internal anger erupted over a lacklustre campaign that critics said failed to counter the Greens “protest” and forensically check Dr Finizio’s background with her directorships or applying for a Labor job four years ago. Ahead of a meeting on Monday night of the party’s state executive (or board), David Speirs’ leadership also came under increasing pressure as critics lashed his role and that of state director Alex May. “There were multiple problems, but not being local and having more baggage than a Qantas carousel is a start,” one senior Liberal said. Another said: “This is a loss which can be chalked up to missing the mood of the electorate with a safe and predictable campaign.” A third said: “I am so angry, I don’t usually rant to journos, but I’m making an exception. Two-thirds of the party are furious, but don’t know what to do.” Other Liberals said there were no other “credible” leaders and noted a swing against Labor in a seat that was “challenging” to win.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/south-australian-liberal-leader-david-speirs-under-mounting-pressure-after-the-party-faces-losing-the-states-most-marginal-seat-of-dunstan/news-story/62f2eb7ab6ee18ca23769aa85c75690f?amp
”
Mostly Interestedsays:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 8:38 am
Oliver Sutton @ #60 Monday, March 25th, 2024 – 8:29 am
Now, if only Labor could cure its pathological fear and loathing of the Greens … ;-
As is discussed in the Tas election blog, the times when Labor has partnered with the Greens has always ended in acrimony and electoral wipe out. I’m guessing that the choice between a possible, but not probable, 4 year government and being sent back to the wilderness for another decade in 2028 wasn’t really appealing.
Senator Nick McKim, ex-leader of the Tas Greens and partner to Cassy O’Connor also an ex-leader of the Tas Greens and who is running for Tas upper house, has a level of antipathy towards Labor that is only eclipsed by his hatred of the Liberal party. He is massively involved in the state Greens strategic direction and policy setting(i.e. leads it).
The risk profile of a government agreement between Labor and the Greens is so far in the red even communists would blush at the brightness of it.
”
Once, Tasmanian Greens used to boast about being represented by environmentalists.
Now Greens political party in general and Tasmanian Greens in particular have been taken over by far-left(who could be called Communists party if exists now).
The list of things read out by Tasmanian Greens leader sounded more like a wish list of far-left groups.
It is very difficult for current ALP in current political situation to align with Tasmanian Greens with that wish list.
A_E pontificates:
“All this malarkey that federal Labor is heading for minority government is at best wish casting, by the Labor phobic stooges on bludger. At this stage of the electoral cycle, the only two seats that I can think of that may fall out of the Labor cloud on a 51-49 2PP federal election result are Solomon in the NT and Gilmore in NSW. ”
– – – – –
Despite glowing reporting of it’s bungling, the Old AlboShambles is a mess.
The 75 year history of Federal Governments seeking a 2nd Term is that they all lost bark, some nearly lost Office.
Albanese is on wood now, the Figures say Minority Government is the best he or his replacennent could hope for.
Socrates
There goes your dream for emissions reduction policy for petrol driven vehicles.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Monday, March 25, 2024 at 8:58 am
Chris Bowen is preparing to lower Australia’s proposed high fuel efficiency standards for petrol vehicles following US President Joe Biden’s big backdown on American standards and pressure from Thailand, Japan and the domestic automotive industry.
Australia’s backdown is likely this week as parliament prepares to break before the May budget sittings and after a secret meeting last Thursday between the Albanese government and local automotive industry representatives.
Climate Change Minister Mr Bowen and Transport Minister Catherine King have previously promised to give the automotive industry a chance to respond to the policy plans, designed to set a New Vehicle Efficiency Standard that “seeks to catch up with the US around 2028”.
The Australian efficiency standards, designed to cut fuel emissions and promote the sale of electric vehicles, are a crucial part of Mr Bowen’s carbon emissions reduction targets.
The new laws will set fuel efficiency standards on new cars being sold in Australia that will require car companies to supply more fuel-efficient vehicles by targets set on the average emissions per kilometre for new cars sold.
Mr Bowen has repeatedly linked his plan to the US fuel efficiency proposals although they were much higher than the American standards in the short term, and he denied the Australian standards would increase the cost of cars in Australia or reduce the range of imported vehicles.
But Thai and Japanese car exporters claim the changes would mean large numbers of cars would not be able to be sent to Australia, the relatively small market did not warrant lifting standards well beyond other nations and the electric vehicles market was too small and slowing.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/chris-bowen-bows-to-pressure-to-lower-fuel-efficiency-standards/news-story/7adc6bd67850c0e2136edb123ebd6ea3?amp
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Sh*t, Sh*t, Sh*t. Bowen is watering down his own proposal by following US President Joe Biden’s backdown for petrol driven vehicles.
Crap, crap, crap.
Federal lib/nats are unlikely going to force Labor majority government into a minority with combined primary vote around 36-37%
Outside of QLD , the lib/nats combined primary vote is weak
The federal lib/nats with a low combined primary vote 36/37% will be under pressure
Try to hold onto the seats they already hold
Luck to gain seats off Labor with out Labor gaining seats off from the lib/nats around Australia
Lib/nats will also struggle to hold and gain seats off the greens/independents