Three new federal voting intention polls have dropped in short order, including the monthly Resolve Strategic poll for Nine Newspapers, which seems to have lost most of the Labor lean that distinguished it from other pollsters before the start of the year. Both major parties are down two points on the primary vote from the February result, putting Labor at 32% and the Coalition at 35%, with the Greens up two to 13% and One Nation down one to 5%. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is down three to 38%, with his combined poor and very poor up two to 49%, while Peter Dutton is respectively steady at 36% and down one to 44%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting out from 39-32 to 40-30. In the absence of a two-party preferred measure from Resolve Strategic, my own favoured method of calculating one from flows at the 2022 election (which lumps together independents and all parties other than the majors, the Greens, One Nation and the United Australia Party into a single category) gets a result of about 52.8-47.2 in Labor’s favour, compared with a bit over 52-48 last time. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1610.
The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research has what is by some distance Labor’s worst result on voting intention this term, with the Coalition opening a lead of 50% to 44% on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, the balance being undecided. This compares with a Labor lead of 48% to 47% last time and a reversed result the time before, the latter being the only previous occasion when the Coalition led this term. We will have to wait upon the release of the full report later today for the primary votes. Despite this, The Guardian report relates little change on a monthly leadership on which respondents rate the leaders on a scale of one to ten, with 32% (down one) giving Anthony Albanese a rating of seven to ten and 35% (steady) a rating of zero to three. Peter Dutton had 31% at the top of the range, down one, and 34% at the bottom, up one.
UPDATE: The primary votes are Labor 29% (down three), Coalition 36% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one), with undecided up one to 6%.
Further questions relate to campaign finance reform and the state of Australian democracy, recording a drop from 46% to 32% in satisfaction with the latter since immediately after the 2022 election and dissatisfaction up from 18% to 31%. There was strong support for truth-in-advertising laws (73%), real-time reporting of donations (64%) and donations caps (61%), though the related proposal of greater public funding found only 29% support with 35% opposed.
The weekly Roy Morgan poll is also less than stellar for Labor, recording a tie on two-party preferred after they led 51.5-48.5 result last time. However, this is more to do with a weaker flow of respondent-allocated preferences than changes on the primary vote, on which Labor is steady at 31.5%, the Coalition up one to 38%, the Greens up one-and-a-half to 14% and One Nation down one to 4.5%. My own measure of a result based on 2022 election preferences has Labor leading 51.5-48.5, which is little different from last time.
We also have from The Australian further results from the latest Newspoll showing 51% support for fixed four-year parliamentary terms with 37% opposed.
It is not at all clear to me what degree, if any, of command and control Lambie has over little Tassie lambies.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-28/senator-tammy-tyrrell-resigns-from-jacqui-lambie-network/103647920
Seems like this has been on the cards for a while but they waited until after the Tas election.
Intriguing to see how she votes as an Independent.
Armaguard merged with Prosegur in November to form a near-monopoly; maybe they should just install ATMs on the side of their trucks and park outside the troublesome duopoly.
Coles resumes receiving cash deliveries after halving withdrawal limit amid fears of Armaguard collapse
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/28/armaguard-collapse-fears-coles-cash-withdrawal-limit
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 4:28 pm
‘Tonifa says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 4:18 pm
Gympie:
“In other words, there was absolutely no reason to boot the Howard Government”
Two words (or was it one word?): WorkChoices.’
———————–
Climate. Iraq War. Afghanistan War. Biodiversity. Tax arrangements that spawned today’s housing mess. Normalizing racism.
———–
The Union advertising did a great job against Work Choices.
But, as Boerwar would hate, the social democrat and Mandarin speaker Kevin Rudd, won Labor a significant victory in 2007 with visionary policies on climate change, saying ‘sorry’ to First Nations people, increasing Commonwealth finding for public hospitals, an Asian-Pacific community to avoid war, policies to reduce homelessness, building hybrid cars in Melbourne, plus more. As well as significant funding to help those effected by the GFC. He won 83 electorates, 16 in Queensland, 43.3% PV for Labor. But put Labor people offside when he wanted to cut their printing allowance during the GFC to be in sympathy with workers who had lost jobs.
The GFC significantly effected getting his policies into practice.
And Labor didn’t like Rudd’s spending during the GFC. Thought it was a waste of money. Never praised it.
A budget surplus was all important. Tricked then and now by the Liberals.
Of course Rudd’s policies were not the Liberal lite policies the Labor right faction wanted. So he had to go.
That voters supported Rudd significantly more than Gillard
Shorten or Albanese was unimportant to the Labor right leadership.
Shows that a popular leader can change a country.
And here we are today still in thrall, must follow what ‘PM’ Dutton wants.
And tricked by the corrupt liar and bully Morrison. Unfortunately Albanese doesn’t have that charisma. Liberal lite policies from a Labor government loses voter support. As happened in 2013, 2016, 2019.
If the JLN successful candidates in Tassie are anything like her dealing with them as a bloc might be like herding cats.
I always smile when somebody whose schtick is you can’t trust politicians gets elected.
So we are to trust nobody but them?
Scanning the Ins and Outs at AFL team selection and wondering how many players are dodging the SIA drug testers this week …?
Cash should be abolished.
@Rex Douglas says at 7:33pm
Sometimes I agree with you, most times I don’t, but I think this is up there with the worst opinions you’ve said on this site.
Did you not see what happened to the country when Optus went down last November? And that was only about a third of the country’s telecommunications. And for a single day.
Cash must never be abolished. If a disaster happens and the power/internet goes down, what are people going to do? Aggressively wave credit cards at each other with no means to process those transactions? Maybe sharpen their credit cards into plastic blades so they can duel for it stone age style?
https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1773101420385911187
Yep, thinks he’s a celebrity.
The LNP govts went after China in a loud and a stupid way for domestic political purposes, and real racist hate campaign that certainly engaged the deeply stupid and racist element in Australia some of the worst of whom still sprout the idiocy like hymns from a prayer book to this day.
They caused all the tarrifs, you’d have to be bonkers out of your single cell brain to contemplate for a nanosecond giving the LNP credit for the tarrifs they provoked coming down again.
I’m no fan of this genocide supporting Labor govt, but on China they have been serious and competent, in a way that makes their efforts on Aukus look even more bizzare and incompetent by contrast.
Incisive and decisive stuff in the resignation narrative:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/28/tasmanian-senator-tammy-tyrrell-quits-jacqui-lambie-network
Kirsdarke
If you’re telling me you couldn’t cope without cash, I don’t believe you.
Cheer up Rex; you’ll never have to worry about being a celebrity.
The armoured car business is not what it used to be. Back when payrolls were done in Cash, it was a massive business. There are things other than Cash they transport – Art, Jewellery, Gold – but that is not going to keep the lights on.
I agree.
Rex Douglas says Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 7:33 pm
I’d rather they don’t given so many retailers are passing on the fees charged by the banks and credit card companies.
Another wonderful win for the Albanese Labour Government, abolition of the Chinese tarrifs introduced solely due to the Morrison/Abbott/Dutton/Turnbull warmongering.
The long march to rectifying the horrors of a decade of LNP corruption, lies, mismanagement and not holding a hose continues.
@Rex Douglas
Well yeah, when the power stays on and the internet doesn’t screw up then I could, but what happens when they fail during the increasingly likely extreme climate events in which you probably need to buy things the most? Things you’d never think to purchase when all is fine and dandy when you have to wade up to your waist across the street to get to the shop and all the power is out.
The backup needs to be there, for everyone.
Who in Labor is Irene slagging now? All of them or just a select few?
Rudd’s achievements on climate: zero.
Albanese’s achievements on climate:
1. a legislated climate target
2. $24 billion invested in renewables and associated transmission lines.
3. Australia’s international cred restored.
4. vehicles emissions standards
5. take up of EVs accelerating rapidly
6. domestic manufacture of solar panels
7. safeguard mechanism to reduce carbon emissions by over 200 million tons
So what does moral panic merchant Irene do? Laud Rudd and diss Albanese.
Speaking of, this can’t be good:
Visa, Mastercard reach $30 billion settlement over credit card fees
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/mastercard-visa-reach-30-bln-settlement-over-credit-card-fees-2024-03-26/
For those who like to fossick for devils in the detail:
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/safeguard-mechanism-one-step-closer-parliamentary-passage
Pueo at 7:52 pm.
Love your work.
😀
‘WeWantPaul says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 7:41 pm
The LNP govts went after China in a loud and a stupid way for domestic political purposes, and real racist hate campaign that certainly engaged the deeply stupid and racist element in Australia some of the worst of whom still sprout the idiocy like hymns from a prayer book to this day.
They caused all the tarrifs, you’d have to be bonkers out of your single cell brain to contemplate for a nanosecond giving the LNP credit for the tarrifs they provoked coming down again.
I’m no fan of this genocide supporting Labor govt, but on China they have been serious and competent, in a way that makes their efforts on Aukus look even more bizzare and incompetent by contrast.’
——————-
I don’t think the Labor Government has supported the genocidal Iran, various Iranian exported terrorist groups or the Houthies. From the River to the Sea. You know the drill.
There are plenty who do support them, of course.
But not Labor.
Labor has in fact supplied Gazans with millions of dollars worth of humanitarian aid. Yes, it did pause that aid when UNWRA sacked nine staff for engaging in murder, rape, torture and kidnapping. Despite ongoing concerns Labor has restarted that aid.
Labor did halt a dribble of people with visas who were seeking to make it to Australia via Egypt. Egypt is not letting anyone into Egypt at all. Strange, that? Well, the only way they could have made it out of Gaza is with Hamas approvals through Hamas-controlled tunnels. Any sensible government would think twice about that sort of provenance.
Has Cash ever answered questions the AFP were wanting to ask in relation to criminal behaviour in her Office?
Would a refusal to answer questions represent a perceived conflict of interest in relation to her role as Shadow Attorney General?
What message is the Coalition sending to Australians about is regard for law and order with this particular appointment?
Derek Bromley is an Indigenous man who may be about to be paroled after spending 40 years in prison for murder. He is the longest serving Indigenous prisoner in Australia. For 40 years, he has maintained his innocence. He would have been eligible for parole 18 years ago if he had admitted guilt and showed remorse. His co-accused was released 20 years ago, because he admitted guilt. During his time in prison, Derek Bromley has been an exemplary prisoner. For a decade, he has fought fires with the South Australian Country Fire Service.
It’s a fucked up situation that in order to get parole a person has to show remorse, and in order to show remorse that person has to admit guilt, and if that person is steadfast in their claim of innocence their punishment becomes perpetual.
I also note that NSW has a ‘no body, no parole’ law. Damed shame if you don’t know where the body is because you’re not the one who did the killing and the burying.
Perhaps Kerry Stokes should come to the rescue of Armaguard?
Channel Seven seems to need cash for all the dirty deeds it needs.
Done dirt cheap.
Following the earlier news that Senator Tammy Tyrrell has quit the Jacqui Lambie Network:
Might as well call this mob the “Herding Cats Party” or perhaps the “Extremely Broad Church Party”. It’s interesting how one can pose as an independent but also as a member of a party.
Rainman
I don’t have a problem with no body, no parole. There are nearly always family members whose emotional suffering continues for as long as they can’t have some remains to bury.
The only people I would lock up for forty years are terrorists of whatever ilk who show no sign at all of wavering in their belief that they must kill to fulfill some ‘higher’ purpose or other.
Forty years for murder seems an extraordinarily long sentence but I have no idea of the circumstances of the crime.
@Boerwar
I doubt it. Either Michaelia Cash is skilled in the secret ninja art of “Whiteboard no Jutsu” or the press are as determined to protect her from anything negative as they were and still are with Julie Bishop, who they still often treat more as a glamour model than a former politician.
If cash is abolished, the victims of domestic control and coercion will have every transaction, every place they go, every toy they buy their children, tracked by their abusive partner.
K
How could any AG expect police co-operation when the AG does not co-operate with the police.
It is an extraordinary situation.
‘Rainman says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 8:39 pm
If cash is abolished, the victims of domestic control and coercion will have every transaction, every place they go, every toy they buy their children, tracked by their abusive partner.’
——————————————————
Cash will be abolished eventually. It is already de facto abolished in our household. There are no cash transactions in any of China’s cities. Yes, digital costs money. But hard copy costs much, much more.
Your’s is an interesting policy issue. Perhaps in the end the only way to beat the situation you describe is to leave the abusive partner. It would then be a matter of providing a new digital identify for the woman and the children. We support one such woman here.
Kirsdarke:
Absolutely.
I barely ever use cash (in Australia, at least), but you can be damn sure I want it there as an option when I do need to use it.
Anyone claiming cash can be abolished lives in a bubble of privilege.
If Armaguard can’t compete directly with the supermarket duopoly, they could adopt the ice cream van model and deliver financial services direct to the suburbs. Listen for their distinctive “ka-ching!” bell.
Rex:
Way to completely miss the point.
You’re right, most (but definitely not all) people these days can easily get by without cash 99% of the time.
Except for those times when they can’t.
And it doesn’t matter how rare those times may come by, if you need to pay for something now and cannot do so because of severe weather or the multiple recent instances of bank networks going out nationwide or whatever, then you are fucked. Sorry, welcome to the 21st century, no food / shelter / medicine / (insert necessity here) for you.
@Boerwar at 8:39pm
Well, the alternative is that the AFP is all-in with the LNP to the extent that all questions like that are nix’d and ignored and things continue as usual with the expectation that when the Coalition returns to government they’ll reward those that helped them the most, but I suppose that’s just silly partisan nonsense in my head when the alternative explanation is that key witnesses accidentally bumped their heads on a microwave door that magically erased all memory of such events or convinced them that Michaelia Cash is Galadriel the Elven Queen or some bollocks like that.
Sorry if my sarcasm is a bit blunt tonight, honestly had some scary moments on the road thanks to dickheads who were talking on their phones while driving or weren’t looking when they were pulling out of a parking spot.
K
No worries. I had an Auntie die yesterday. It was time. She survived the vagaries of childbirth and childhood diseases pre penicillin. Three of her siblings did not. She survived the Great Depression a time of dire poverty. She survived the Hungry Winter – the german induced famine. 60,000 Netherlanders did not survive it. She survived post war poverty. She survived the emotional pain of leaving a close family to migrate to australia starting with some dire poverty during the early years in Australia. Saved hard. Worked hard. Made her own clothes and those of her family. 14 great grandkids.
The silent generation alright. Tough. Resilient. Survivors. I never once heard her complain. Not a skerrick of the world owes me this or that. She was always warm and welcoming. Generous. She was the sort of Auntie anyone would love, admire and respect.
I don’t think it has been mentioned, so vale Daniel Kahneman.
I don’t want cash (money that is, not the politician) abolished. I don’t go overboard when I’m using a card but I spend significantly less when using cash.
@Boerwar at 9:13pm
Really sorry to hear that. She’s a really powerful person to have gone through all that and survived until 2024. I give my condolences.
Rossmcg @ #905 Thursday, March 28th, 2024 – 7:26 pm
This is the essential conundrum that Rex Douglas cannot explain satisfactorily when it comes to his fanatical promotion of a Parliament of the X Bench. ‘Who do you trust?’ (Not John Howard 😉 ) Any? All? Some? Which ones? On which particular issues? Would they ever be able to agree on anything to then be able to pass legislation? What would that legislation look like?
So many questions. So few answers.
voor William Bowe, Dr Bonham and others in Tasmania. Are there any new updates with the counting? I heard that Labor has done better than expected in one of the divisions and as a result and extra quota?.
Is it appearing more and more that Rebecca white was foolish for conceding so early. If the JLN agrees to supply en confidence with the Liberals this will be bad optics for them leading up into the next federation election. If Jacquie nails her mast to the Liberal party I doubt it will play well voor her en the next election as a cross bench force. Dankie en advance for answers to my TAS questions.
Put your hand up if you believe anything at all that comes out of Putin’s mouth:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/mar/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-ukraine-destroys-drones-as-putin-rules-out-attacks-on-nato-countries
Boerwar says Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 8:37 pm
We have this law in Western Australia, brought in after the mother of Hayley Dodd lobbied for it. We also have a mandatory life sentence for murder in Western Australia, with courts setting the minimum term. So that potentially means that a person wrongly convicted of murder may never be freed if the body was never found.
Thanks, K.
And now it is time for the Sandman. Goodnight all.
bc
Just saw your post. Why sentence anyone to anything at all just in case they were wrongfully convicted?
Now I really am off to bed.
I’m not following the Tasmanian count in minute detail, but there are others on the dedicated thread who are:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/03/27/tasmanian-election-and-dunstan-by-election-late-counting/#comments
Boerwar says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 8:45 pm
Cash will be abolished eventually
—————————————————————-
Probably not.
And in the home of capitalism –
‘Numerous states have introduced bills during the 2020/2021 legislative session to make it illegal for brick-and-mortar stores to refuse cash. According to a list from the ATM Industry Association Stateside Monitoring Service, states with pro-cash legislation now include Arizona, Delaware, District of Columbia, Idaho, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania, as well as New Jersey and Rhode Island plus—most recently—Colorado and Connecticut.’
cashmatters.org
‘There are some exceptions, but most businesses will be in violation of Oregon law if they refuse to accept cash as payment for goods or services.’
kgw.com
‘LEGISLATURE OF THE STATE OF IDAHO
Sixty-sixth Legislature First Regular Session – 2021
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HOUSE BILL NO. 256
22 (h) A person who engages in business as a seller in this state shall accept cash as a method of payment’
‘Bill filed to require Florida businesses accept cash’
wcjb.com
Oct. 10, 2023
‘As contactless, digital and card transactions become more commonplace in Washington, D.C., a newly enforced law will ensure those who primarily use cash won’t be left out.
Beginning Oct. 1, businesses that discourage or don’t accept cash payments became liable to civil penalties.’
smartcitiesdive.com
Oct. 19, 2023
And that’s where I got bored.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, March 28, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Apologies for the inadvertent post after yours. My condolences.
Facebook Marketplace is all cash transactions. Unless you both agree to pay by Beemit or PayPal, but that’s generally too clunky.
Also, little old ladies who mind people’s dogs for them when their owners go on holidays get paid in cash. 😉
So, cash is an essential ingredient that makes the world go around.