The ball is now officially rolling on a campaign for a May 3 election, with nominations to be declared in two weeks and a not-quite-two-week early voting period starting on Tuesday, April 22. The latter reflects the interruption of Easter, extending from April 18 to 21, with Anzac Day presenting a further interruption on April 25. Some attractions to make a visit to Poll Bludger part of your daily routine during the campaign period:
• I may regret saying this, but I will at least aspire to publish posts on a daily basis, which will either break news of major polls as soon as they report, or appear overnight to summarise developments of the previous day and the contents of the morning newspapers.
• The Poll Bludger election guide, which I’ve spent much of the past week bringing up to speed, offers an overview page reviewing the electoral terrain and summarising the seats to watch, and detailed interactive guides to all 150 lower house seats and eight state and territory Senate contests,
• The BludgerTrack poll aggregate tells you as much in one glance about the state of federal polling as any sensible person needs to know, and uniquely offers regularly updated trend measures at state level.
• Come the big day and the weeks to follow, the site will offer live results reporting that will wipe the floor with all comers, as an examination of its Western Australian state equivalent should readily attest. Innovative features include a model for calculating win probabilities three ways in complex contests and a new colour-coded results map feature along the lines of that recently added for the Western Australian results.
Show-don’t-tell time:
• A new poll from RedBridge Group, conducted March 13 to 24 from a sample of 2039, has Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, unchanged from the previous poll of March 3 to 11. The primary votes are Labor 34% (up two), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 11% (down one) and others 17% (down two). The Coalition continues to do better among those who profess themselves “solid” in their choice, leading 54-46 among that group. Twenty-nine per cent felt themselves able to name something the Albanese government had done that had made their lives better (electricity rebates being most cited), compared with 54% who couldn’t; 23% reported themselves more or less in favour of tariffs, with 35% more or less opposed; and 68% registered concern about Chinese naval vessels off the coast, with 24% less or not at all concerned. The addition of the voting intention numbers to BludgerTrack has lifted its reading of the Labor primary vote by a grand total of 0.1%, and left all other indicators unchanged.
• Thursday’s Herald Sun had JWS Research polling from the two teal-held seats in Melbourne, conducted “a fortnight ago” from samples of 800 each for Australian Energy Producers. The results have Zoe Daniel trailing Liberal challenger Tim Wilson 54-46 in Goldstein, compared with her 52.9-47.1 win in 2022, with Wilson on 44% of the primary vote (40.4% in 2022) to Daniel’s 24% (34.5%), Labor on 21% (a somewhat counter-intuitive improvement on their 11.0% in 2022) and the Greens on 5% (7.8% in 2022). Monique Ryan is credited with a 51-49 lead over Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer in Kooyong, likewise compared with a 52.9-47.1 win for Ryan in 2022, from primary votes of 40% for Hamer (42.7% for Josh Frydenberg at the 2022 election) and 32% for Ryan (40.3% in 2022), with Labor on 11% (6.9%) and the Greens on 9% (6.3%). Peter Dutton was credited was leads over Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister of 51-35 in Goldstein and 40-36 in Kooyong.
• The Australian National University’s Centre for Social Policy Research has results from the second wave of a series tracking changes in attitudes ahead of the election, the first having been conducted from October 14 to 25 from a sample of 3622, this latest having run to January 29 to February 12 with a sample of 3514, 2380 of whom also participated in the first wave. On this occasion there is no straightforward reading of voting intention, but it finds confidence in the federal government fell from 52.9% in its honeymoon period to 33.7% in the latest survey. Satisfaction with democracy “remains relatively stable at 66.2%”, and there has been a general decrease in sentiments associated with populism from August 2018 to January 2025, such as a drop from 67.9% to 61.3% in the share of respondents who felt “government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves”. Nonetheless, “life satisfaction” has been on a downward trend since pre-pandemic, which has resumed since 2023 after recovering from a slump while it was on, and the percentage reporting financial difficulty stabilised in the low thirties in 2024 after a steady ascent from late 2020.
• The Tasmanian government announced earlier this week that the periodic Legislative Council elections, which this year encompass the seats of Nelson and Pembroke, would be postponed from their usual date in the first week of May to May 24, to exclude the possibility of a clash with the federal election.
Hey Hack Woke.
How are you, my friend?
Keep up the good work exposing those reactionary pretenders and the hangers on.
And Dutton, or his Comms Team to be exact, has settled on the smart aleck form of words to riposte to journos and others asking him about his, and his party’s policies, and their similarity to Trump:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fringe-anti-immigrant-figure-disrupts-albanese-as-climate-activists-target-dutton-20250329-p5lnha.html
A total non sequitur that is essentially meaningless but serves the purpose of sledging the PM without addressing the elephant in the room.
Very well, since I can’t predict the future I’ll take your word for this. But I will bring this up angrily in 2035 if it turns out we’re in the third term of a majority Coalition government under Prime Minister Andrew Hastie or whoever ends up leader.
——–
I cant see the future either but if a progressive govt is elected it needs to have some balls and implement affordable housing as a number one priority before it is too late. If people have no hope of a stable future they will go crazy like we’re seeing in the USA. We should see what’s going on there as a warning sign. You can already see it happening here with some of the posters in this forum.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 9:11 pm
_____________________
I have had it in for Khawaja for years.
Ever since he gave an interview on SEN and came across as totally up himself.
The fact that he was uploading selfies to Instagram at the F1 whilst his team mates were fine tuning their preparations for the Shield final tells you exactly what type of person he really is.
It didn’t surprise me one little bit.
Whilst trying to rope in Dutton to try and excuse his behaviour was just pathetic.
Been There says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 11:07 pm
Hey Hack Woke.
How are you, my friend?
Keep up the good work exposing those reactionary pretenders and the hangers on.
Hey Been There! Good to see you. I’m very well….feeling like our chances are good in WA. The door-knocking has been good. The natives are well-disposed to red t-shirts at the moment.
I’m going to be travelling for the next two weeks…family visits away from home. So not a lot of actual campaigning for me. I think the voters have worked Dutton out. I think he knows it too.
I’ve been working a lot: drawing, painting, preparing for some large, new works this year….very engaging work with other local artists….making improvements bit-by-bit. Everything is going well.
I hope all’s well with you too !!!
Onwards to victory ….:)
On politics, has anyone here managed to get all the way through Wolf Hall and if so do they have any tips?
Do you really want a chart of the families?
Cat at 11.04 pm
Strictly speaking Dutton’s ban on flexible working practices applies only to public servants. Given his rhetoric and parallels with Trump, why any public servant (except maybe the Anglophile gravy boaters high up in Defence) would vote for Dutton is perplexing. As has been noted, many public servants don’t work in the ACT.
However, Dr Bonham mentions the ban on flexible working as one of the reasons for the LNP vote “tanking”.
In this case as in others it is the broad message received by the electorate, rather than Dutton’s specifics (when he bothers with details), that is likely to be alienating more voters from him.
Diogenes @ #607 Saturday, March 29th, 2025 – 11:19 pm
Do you mean the TV series about Thomas Cromwell? I watched both seasons and thought it was excellent.
Andy Craig
@andycraig.bsky.social
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Most authoritarian regimes go to great lengths to hide their depravities and atrocities, destroy evidence, keep it out of public view, deny it as enemy propaganda. Now they boast and revel in the images while millions of braying jackasses roar in giddy approval of the cruelty as their entertainment.
March 28, 2025 at 7:29 AM
Everybody can reply
https://bsky.app/profile/andycraig.bsky.social/post/3llf5bqtvyk2q
“Andy Craig
@andycraig.bsky.social
Follow
It reveals a profoundly degenerate depravity on the part of the American people that they don’t feel the need to hide any of it, they have no fear of public backlash against it, and they appear to be mostly correct about that. No image is too shocking, no abuse going too far. The worse the better.
March 28, 2025 at 7:40 AM”
Protesters pretending to be local media or any media to gatecrash events is very wrong.
Some process needs to be put into place to stop it.
I feel I’m speaking for all sides of politics on this matter.
We may think it’s funny when it happens to the party you don’t like, but it can quickly go the other way.
If I can dress up in a suit pretending to be media and get that close to the PM or the Opposition leader shows a major flaw in our security system.
It needs to be stopped!
Rick Wilson
@therickwilson.bsky.social
Follow
Super excited for the entire conservative infrastructure to tell me how Trump’s demand for price controls on cars is free market economics.
March 29, 2025 at 1:48 AM
“fmp2025.bsky.social @fmp2025.bsky.social
·
43m
Ironies-consumers can pay or shareholders. That’s the choice? Still looking for that foreign government that’s gonna pay for the tariff tax
Currently clean on OPSEC @dsng480.bsky.social
·
3h
Trump projects like a Megaplex, yet I figured his fondness for the term “radical left Marxist” was just a meaningless string of syllables.
Nope. He’s actually a radical-left Marxist, complete with central planning.
Coming next: Collective farms.”
Ven @ #609 Saturday, March 29th, 2025 – 11:31 pm
Yeah, that’s pretty much exactly what I feared from the USA going full Fourth Reich mode. In his first few years of power, Hitler had to play sneaky games because of the Treaty of Versailles. Trump II meanwhile has nothing stopping him from doing whatever he wants. He’s got like a dozen fully equipped carrier groups to do whatever he tells them to, and it turns out there’s nobody left to hold him to account for that.
I agree that protestors shouldn’t gatecrash events. Would like to see more community engagement from politicians though it feels like those of us with major party representatives are mostly represented by NPC’s.
Dr Doolittle says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 11:21 pm
The Reactionaries are known for their hostility to workers. Dutton has activated worker sensitivity…WFH, the intention to dismiss 40,000+ plus….these are high registration messages. He’s obviously decided to campaign to other Reactionaries rather than to voters. What is he trying to prove? And to whom?
I bet none of the media will ask Dutton if he plans to government without doing deals with third parties.
mj @ #613 Saturday, March 29th, 2025 – 11:39 pm
It would be nice though if there wasn’t this monstrous double-standard applied depending on what events are being gatecrashed. If Cooker protesters gatecrashed an event for a Leftist politician they’d be paraded nation-wide by the Murdoch press as heroes.
But if Leftist protesters gatecrashed an event for a Right-wing politician, they’d probably be immediately arrested and also apparently “never existed”, end of story.
Hey Hack Woke
Glad you’re doing well.
I’m okay, just waiting for two new knees via the public system.
Happy to wait rather than pay those private health parasites a cent of my hard earned.
The money we spend subsidising private health and punishing those that didn’t sign up at 30 years of age is massive.
Imagine that going into the public health system instead of the Ramsey and other company privateers pockets?
”
mjsays:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 11:12 pm
Very well, since I can’t predict the future I’ll take your word for this. But I will bring this up angrily in 2035 if it turns out we’re in the third term of a majority Coalition government under Prime Minister Andrew Hastie or whoever ends up leader.
——–
I cant see the future either but if a progressive govt is elected it needs to have some balls and implement affordable housing as a number one priority before it is too late. If people have no hope of a stable future they will go crazy like we’re seeing in the USA. We should see what’s going on there as a warning sign. You can already see it happening here with some of the posters in this forum.
”
mj: We should see what’s going on there as a warning sign. You can already see it happening here with some of the posters in this forum.
Me: exactly and stop playing stupid games like LNP and ALP policies and intentions are same-same.
Affordable Housing issue cannot be solved in a day because it is not caused in a day or in 3 years ALP was in power. It is in the making since John Howard government came to power and there are many reasons for it and one of them being Greens political party blocking legislation on affordable Housing in Senate along with LNP for over 1 year.
This is perfect example of tail wagging the dog.
Been There says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 11:47 pm
Hey Hack Woke
Glad you’re doing well.
I’m okay, just waiting for two new knees via the public system.
Oh, good luck with the knees. Mine are holding up for now. You’re right about the expense…and the folly of diverting $ out of the public system into the private/shadow system. My family have been users of the public system recently….superb results.
Kirsdarke says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 11:45 pm
I agree that protestors shouldn’t gatecrash events. Would like to see more community engagement from politicians though it feels like those of us with major party representatives are represented by NPC’s.
It would be nice though if there wasn’t this monstrous double-standard applied depending on what events are being gatecrashed. If Cooker protesters gatecrashed an event for a Leftist politician they’d be paraded nation-wide by the Murdoch press as heroes.
But if Leftist protesters gatecrashed an event for a Right-wing politician, they’d probably be immediately arrested and also apparently “never existed”, end of story.
———
It would be good if we just had more civic engagement in our campaigns the parties seem to want to avoid as much real contact with people as possible, which is a problem if you proclaim to be a democracy.
The very last thing Labor should do is encourage voters to go Green. This would be electoral suicide. Govern alone or not all has been the traditional battle cry. Labor should stick with it. The Gillard experience showed just how treacherous the Greens can be. Labor should not forget.
@Hack, woke, Partisan
Yep. A minority Labor government is not a loss. However, it does play in to the hands of Peter Dutton’s two election strategy into getting into the lodge. Labor knows this, and so do the Liberals. If Labor is forced into a minority government. I can guarantee you Dutton won’t be going anywhere as opposition leader. The Liberals will be patiently waiting for the Labor government to fall over in the next term.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 11:54 pm
Exactly!
Obviously Labor won’t encourage their voters to vote Green. The socialists who did vote Labor will just leave on their own accord.
Woke/Hack & Been There,
The public seem determined to vote in an LNP gov’t, or at least that is what polymarket is saying.
https://polymarket.com/event/australia-parliamentary-election-winner?tid=1743253432249
Couple of days ago (after Snake’s budget) it was 54-46 in favour of Labor.
Today it is now 51-49 in favour of the LNP.
The public seem determined to have their way. They want him gone.
“Him” being Albo.
Accept it gents.
That’s not what the time series chart on your link shows.
Hack, woke, Partisan
Good to see your family have had superb results in the public system.
Gives me every confidence for when my time comes around.
Anyhow cheers to you and all, heads getting weary.
Goodnight everyone.
mj says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 11:53 pm
The media both use and are used by political groups. I’m reminded of the campaign by the Greens against Adani. This was nominally about coal. In fact it was a campaign against Labor. It helped procure the defeat of Shorten and has turned Queensland blue for 20-30 years.
Doubtless this was intended by the Greens. In what possible way has the near-monopolisation of QLD Federal representation by the Reactionaries been a good thing? It has helped deliver Dutton – who has a baked potato for a brain – as the alternative PM.
Polemics about “civic engagement” is code for campaigning against Labor/for the Reactionaries. This is standard MO for the Greens.
Paul A just clutching at straws.
Accept it gents.
———
It’s a 50-50 contest according to this, whatever worth it has.
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 12:14 am
mj says:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 11:53 pm
The media both use and are used by political groups. I’m reminded of the campaign by the Greens against Adani. This was nominally about coal. In fact it was a campaign against Labor. It helped procure the defeat of Shorten and has turned Queensland blue for 20-30 years.
Doubtless this was intended by the Greens. In what possible way has the near-monopolisation of QLD Federal representation by the Reactionaries been a good thing? It has helped deliver Dutton – who has a baked potato for a brain – as the alternative PM.
Polemics about “civic engagement” is code for campaigning against Labor/for the Reactionaries. This is standard MO for the Greens.
———
I think there’s a 3 way split between Labor, LNP and Greens or teals now and a lot of people want more from their politicians. You can ignore or embrace it. Removing strict party discipline would be a good start.
Poly market is saying either side could win. Genius. Total genius. But I’m sticking to my forecast. The Reactionaries will return with fewer than 50 seats in the Reps. That’s twice as many as they deserve. I cannot recall a more out-of-touch, self-admiring and politically deaf Opposition. They have assigned their loyalty to a foreign power. Unbelievable. But true. They should not have any seats at all.
steve davis – clutching at straws.
The public are determined to get rid of them. Nothing anyone can do about it.
Them being “Albo, Bowen, et all”.
They want them out of their lives.
Check sportsbet if you don’t like to read polymarket.
We had a “fantastic” budget apparently. Guess who is in the lead on sportsbet.
Albanese vows to outlaw supermarket price gouging
The Prime Minister will on Sunday commit to establishing a taskforce to introduce an “excessive pricing regime” for supermarkets in a bid to address cost-of-living concerns.
steve davissays:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 12:25 am
Albanese vows to outlaw supermarket price gouging
The Prime Minister will on Sunday commit to establishing a taskforce to introduce an “excessive pricing regime” for supermarkets in a bid to address cost-of-living concerns.
===============
Copying the Dutton policy.
Yes, your PM, is rattled.
Sportsbet have virtually no credibility. In 2019 they paid out on a Labor win before election day. Odds meant nothing when the Coalition won.
mj says:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 12:22 am
More, you say? More of what? More coherent, orderly, serious and unflustered government? Or more frustration, delay, obstruction, posturing, vanity and sneering?
Of course steve davis, of course.
When you put your head on your pillow tonight, can you think of five Albo achievements since he entered Parly in 1996.
I’ll make it easy, just think of one. Probably knifing Gillard is the obvious one.
The public have “sussed” out your PM, Steve.
He’s on the way out. Piss off and get out of our lives Albo!
Hack, woke, Partisan says:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 12:31 am
mj says:
Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 12:22 am
More, you say? More of what? More coherent, orderly, serious and unflustered government? Or more frustration, delay, obstruction, posturing, vanity and sneering?
———
I can’t argue with hack , woke, partisan.
New thread.
Sceptic @ 5.24pm
Dutton doesn’t need five weeks to male a fool of himself.
Albo just has a clever sense of humour.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Saturday, March 29, 2025 at 9:11 pm
Bravo Sir, bravo.