Following on from the Sunday night polling avalanche, the two pollsters that usually report at this time: the weekly Roy Morgan and the fortnightly Essential Research. Courtesy of The Guardian, Essential Research has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition down one to 34% and the Greens steady on 12%, with undecided at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor poking its nose in front, up one to 48% with the Coalition steady at 47% and the remainder undecided, without fundamentally upsetting a fine balance that has prevailed in this series for nearly a year.
A semi-regular question on leadership attributes records improvements for Anthony Albanese since February, sustantially so for “out of touch with ordinary people” (down six to 57%), and marginally for decisiveness (up one to 44%) and trustworthiness (up two to 44%). Peter Dutton is up two on out-of-touch to 57%, down three on decisive to 53%, and down one on trustworthy to 41%. In defiance of broadly improving signs for the government, the regular question on national mood finds only 32% rating the country as headed in the right direction, down three on a fortnight ago, with the contrary view up four to 52%. The sample for the poll was 1100 – field work dates and other results will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.
Roy Morgan’s weekly federal poll series maintains its recent run of strong results for Labor, who lead 53-47 on the headline respondent-allocated two-party measure and 53.5-46.5 based on 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down half), Coalition 35% (down half), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1377.
Nine Newspapers also has further results from yesterday’s Resolve Strategic poll showing 60% now believe Donald Trump’s election win has been bad for Australia, up from 40% immediately after his election in November, with only 15% rating it good, down from 29%. Numerous further questions point to a weakening of confidence in the alliance: 34% agreed that Australia should pause or withdraw from the nuclear submarines deal, with 25% disagreeing; 42% agreed Australia should rethink plans to host US nuclear submarines at Australian basis, with 24% disagreeing; 50% said Australia should avoid taking sides in a conflict between the US and China, with 18% disagreeing; 46% felt Australia should retaliate against US tariffs, with 18% disagreeing. Only 35% were clear that China (on 31%) and Russia (on 4%) posed the greater threat to Australia: 17% rated the United States the bigger threat, and 38% opted for “all equally”.
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 9:58 pm
beguiledagain
https://www.jewishcouncil.com.au/
————————————-
Thank you Peg. I wasn’t aware of the Council, but I am very encouraged that there is some sort of debate within the Jewish community. I will follow them and support them. I hope they get more exposure. It must be difficult to go against the herd.
If China attacks Taiwan, Trump will sit on his hands, despite what his dipso Secretary of Defense has said:
[‘The Chinese military said Tuesday it had launched joint exercises involving its army, navy, air force and rocket force around Taiwan as a “stern warning,” days after US defense chief Pete Hegseth vowed to counter “China’s aggression” on his first visit to Asia.
China’s armed forces will “close in” on the self-governing island from “multiple directions” in the drills and practice maneuvers including “assault on maritime and ground targets” and “blockade on key areas and sea lanes” to test joint operations capabilities of the troops, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s Eastern Theater Command said in a statement on social media.
“It is a stern warning and forceful deterrence against ‘Taiwan Independence’ separatist forces, and it is a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity,” the statement added.
China’s latest military exercises come as Taiwan is looking on nervously as US President Donald Trump transforms Washington’s global relationships with his mercantilist “America First” foreign policy, discarding decades-old guarantees towards Europe and pushing long-standing Asian allies and partners to pay more for US protection.
Meanwhile, officials close to Trump have repeatedly emphasized the need for the US to focus its attention and resources on countering China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific.
For Taiwan, a democracy of some 23 million people that sits just 80 miles from China at its nearest point, the drills are the latest reminder of the threat that comes from its giant Communist Party-run neighbor, which claims the island as its own and has vowed to seize it by force if necessary.’]
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/31/china/china-taiwan-military-drills-hnk-intl/index.html
”
Centresays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 5:54 pm
For those interested, the very latest news from the markets. The betting reads as follows:
Labor 56%
Coalition 44%
There is no doubt that Labor has opened a lead, however, there are two serious points that need to be made;
– the betting agencies had previously taken a set against Albo, and
– the latest avalanche of polling unanimously suggests that Labor is heading for victory.
It is my opinion, given the above points, that both parties SHOULD be further apart in the betting markets.
The election is there to be won, and if you are on Dutton, you are still in this with a better chance than the polling suggests
”
Whooska!
Griffsays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 10:28 pm
https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-kos-samaras-on-polls-and-the-people-wholl-decide-this-election-253531
Some snippets of opinion but no data as such..
——
Sounds like he’s fairly confident of Labor returning in either minority or majority.
Long-term it’s hard to see how the political environment doesn’t become more balkanised and volatile as the lives of ordinary people are far more financially precarious than they used to be. The major parties even if they wanted to do anything about it have voting blocs too diverse to actually propose substantial reforms which in turn reduces their support.
I’m not sure if this has been posted: Last Leg American Pie Parody: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7neONMnxhJE
I’ll let others speculate on the word beeped out at 2:30
“lives of ordinary people”
So a generalisation pandering to a bias
Are people who bought a home 10 years ago, have enjoyed a low interest period of time due to Global factors and therefore significantly reducing their debt whilst the value of their homes has increased plus have seen their superannuation balances double over 10 years before contributions ordinary people and now under financial distress?
Noting that only 30% of home owners carry a mortgage are those who are debt free under financial distress? And in the same situation as above with their superannuation
Noting where the unemployment rate is, that there have been wage increases over the last 3 years plus reductions in the tax regime
Just for examples
There is (has been) inflation globally for particular reasons which are well documented but inflation is now moderating to within band in Australia
Would you care to describe the circumstances of those in financial distress?
Noting that if studying or new to the workforce so in a junior position on a low wage there is an option to continue to reside in the family home paying board until you stabilise your financial position (impact of HECS which has been a factor over generations now)
And whilst you live with your parents, saving money to enter the big, bad world
So what are the circumstances of those under financial distress – and are they ordinary people?
Or are the ordinary people just going about their lives making ends meet, which is what you do until your mortgage and car loans are paid off?
Noting houses continue to sell so a willing seller and a willing buyer
And from one of ours sons who has a car dealership, new cars are walking out the door some with finance and some without
Plus with modifications adding to the price tag
So, please explain
Cut the generalisations and describe
Noting the complaints that the dole is not enough to survive on
Andrew_Earlwood says Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 9:18 pm
If the French have followed good software engineering practices it should be easy. If they haven’t then I’m not sure we would want to use their software.
Please understand that I’m suffering from Dunning-Kruger here, but given the work that had already been done on the Attack class, shouldn’t it be possible to have one in the water by the end of the decade? That’s if we make the decision this year.
I think if someone built a risk matrix, it would show that committing to a small number of Attack class now (as they would probably be as close to off the shelf as we would accept) might well be prudent. This would not mean abandoning the submarine component of AUKUS. It would just be mitigating the risk we face of a capability gap.
I don’t think there’s a need to ditch the Virginia Class now. I think that’s a decision that can be kicked down the road. As I mentioned above, I do think it would be prudent to mitigate the risk of them not turning up, or turning up late. Given the clown show currently running the US, you would have to wonder about the ability to increase production levels.
I thought Rolls Royce was busy developing the new reactors for the next class of UK subs. Didn’t we just give them a substantial amount of money to assist with that?
Edit: Or another idea, do a deal with the US to start building Virginia Class boats in Australia, beginning as soon as we can tool and train up.
”
beguiledagainsays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 10:43 pm
Pegasus says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 9:58 pm
beguiledagain
https://www.jewishcouncil.com.au/
————————————-
Thank you Peg. I wasn’t aware of the Council, but I am very encouraged that there is some sort of debate within the Jewish community. I will follow them and support them. I hope they get more exposure. It must be difficult to go against the herd.
”
B
In 2007 federal election, Wentworth was the only electorate in Australia, where Liberals vote share increased and Liberals won the seat(Lars must have worked really hard).
Turnbull was Liberals candidate and Newhouse, a Jew and a human rights lawyer, was ALP candidate
The organisation, where I worked in Sydney, I had 2 Jews as colleagues, who lived Sydney Eastern suburbs. One was good friend and the relationship with other was cordial.
I asked them, why a jew is defeated when there were substantial number Jewish voters in the electorate. Both said that Newhouse was not liked by them.
Peter C,
By ordinary people I mean low to middle income people.
You sound quite detached and insulated from the financial struggles of younger generations that is reflective of the current Labor party who ought to understand this. Have you thought about people who are trying to buy their first house now as opposed to 10 yrs ago or beyond?
30 years ago anyone on a single full time low income could buy a property reasonably easily that’s now impossible. People are finding themselves in increasing financial precarity and that has consequences socially and politically.
Latest Resolve Poll – Victorian State voting Intention (ie: Allan, not Albo).
* ALP 24% (up 2)
* Libs 41% (down 1)
* GRN 14% (up 1)
* Others/Indies/PHON/Vic Nats 21% (down 2)
Preferred Premier.
Battin 36% (no change). Allan 23% (down 4)
Link: https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
My comments:
* Premier Allan is sinking like a rock in a pond.
I doubt the PM will be seen anywhere near her over the next 26 days.
* The A.L.P. federally, will not be picking up four(4) more divisions in Victoria. The poster who keeps
repeating this, needs to cease, because it simply is not happening.
BC
“I thought Rolls Royce was busy developing the new reactors for the next class of UK subs. Didn’t we just give them a substantial amount of money to assist with that?”
——————————-
The SSN AUKUS reactors are to be based on the RR PWR3 reactors in the Dreadnought class. These include US technology taken from the US S9G reactors in the Virginias. This was to overcome a problem that had been found in the previous RR PWR2 reactors. Hence there will be US IP in the SSN AUKUS reactors as proposed under AUKUS.
It takes 6 to 8 years to build a large SSK like Attack Class from scratch. Hence eI agree with Andrew – if we are going to do this, we need to start ASAP.
BC
It is not possible for Australia or anyone else to build Virginias outside USA under US legislation (the Jones Act). Despite raising this issue when AUKUS was first proposed, the Act remains unchanged.
N88 I think they’ll gain some seats in Victoria but that’s probably it where I could see the liberals get
Allen is clearly a massive drag on the Labor vote in Victoria, would be best she go into hiding until the Federal race is done or permanently even.
Anyone looking for proportionality in a war is looking for it in the wrong place.
“The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.”
Hi Quentin,
Hope all is well with you in Roma, and great that you are still blogging on the site. I really appreciate your input as do most others. You and Dr.D are the best. Both of you don’t mince your words.
“The LNP gaining seats” in Victoria is, dare I say it – baked in. I’ve said this since about August last year. I def don’t see anything exciting in this current poll for Labor, noting it is state vote intention, not Fed.
It’s very tricky for the PM, because in W.A. and S.A. he can campaign with the incumbents.
Cook & Malinauskas are polling rockstars, and both can help the PM.
In Victoria, things become awkward, in that someone has to say to Premier Allan – “please go away whilst the PM is visiting”. Very tough, but someone from ALP HQ will deliver this message.
QLD is difficult for the PM too, because Mr Chrisafulli is polling very well (despite the stadium backflip). The PM can’t campaign with Mr Chrisifulli, so Mr Dutton gets the limelight.
Doesn’t really matter in QLD as the LNP are at the high tide mark. The existing margins will most likely be bolstered (similar to a swing to the ALP in the A.C.T – ie: it doesn’t matter). I think Madonna Jarrett will pick up Brissie though.
Probably doesn’t really matter in W.A. either, as the ALP are at the “high tide” mark too. They can increase their existing margins there, but I don’t see them picking up additional divisions.
Victoria is interesting though. The ALP hold 24 out of 38 Divisions. ie: High tide mark for the ALP.
They’re going to go backwards in Vic – just depends by how much.
”
bobsays:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025 at 12:32 am
Anyone looking for proportionality in a war is looking for it in the wrong place.
“The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind.”
”
When you apply the corollary
Trump regime thought that they will impose tariffs on everyone else will impose tariffs on them and nobody will tariffs on them.
Trump will threaten and bully them and they won’t retaliate in fear of USA. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind”
Labor makes inflated promise to low-paid workers
Anthony Albanese will back above-inflation pay rises for 2.9 million low-paid workers, igniting an election fight with Peter Dutton and business.
This is another winner for Labor if Dutton doesn’t support the same measures.
nadia88says:
Victoria is interesting though. The ALP hold 24 out of 38 Divisions. ie: High tide mark for the ALP.
They’re going to go backwards in Vic – just depends by how much.
_________________________________
Who knows why the Allan government is getting such dire polling. It’s not like it’s led the state into a recession or been scandal plagued. The ‘it’s time’ factor probably accounts for most of it.
nadia88says:
Victoria is interesting though. The ALP hold 24 out of 38 Divisions. ie: High tide mark for the ALP.
They’re going to go backwards in Vic – just depends by how much.
__________________________
Then there’s also the possibility that the Liberals get a 4-5% swing, somehow miss on Mcewen, just miss out on a swag of seats in the 6-7% range and Labor somehow picks up Deakin and Menzies against the swing and then Scott is crowned Lord of Poll Bludger and we all kneel to his genius.
Hey dave,
Likely LNP pickups (from my read), in Victoria, are as follows;
* Monash (from ind Lib)
* Kooyong (from Teal)
* McEwen (from Labor)
* Aston (from Labor)
* Dunkley (from Labor)
* Goldstein (from Teal). Almost a dead cert pick up this seat (IMO). The Teal is a lemon.
* Chisholm (from Labor). Lemon Lib candidate, but if the swing is on, it’s on.
Others:
* Bruce – Dutton/Battin and Mr Howard have all been hanging around this seat recently. Can’t see it as a Lib pick up. Gosh – Dandenong, Hallam & Noble Park. Dead Red turf.
* Corangamite – possible pickup but there are a lot of public servants employed by the NDIS in this area who may have another view. Will probably remain Labor.
* Hawke – Decent ALP margin. Dutton may make inroads, but won’t get the seat.
I’ll stick with seven (7) LNP pick ups in Vic, at this stage.
We’ll see over the next 30 days how things pan out.
Cheers Nadia. Good confident predictions. I’m rarely confident to give a prediction on anything much at all. I live in the grey, where doubt rules and the only certainty is uncertainty.
Still, I would be surprised if Dunkley falls.
N88 yeah Victoria’s gonna be the part where wav is going to lose seat but I don’t think it’s going to be enough labour tolose government because if the coalitions plans hoping that every Victoria seat labour holds to them that is not a good plan but there’s also this Victorian socialist in the greens so I want to be surprised of some seats stay Labor in some seats go liberal
No worries QR.
There are a lot of things to play out over the next 30 odd days.
There will be blooper candidates and embarrassing moments from both sides.
The above is only my opinion regarding Vic. Others on the site, with more experience, will have a different P.O.V. of course, which is what the site is all about.
Catch up soon when we have some new polls.
Mavis says:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 4:02 pm
nadia88:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 3:36 pm
I hope the shit that was piled on you last night hasn’t dampened your enthusiasm.
Keep up your good work.
==================================
Thankyou Mavis!
I try not to let little things worry me, including some of the pathetic posters who enjoy flinging abuse or the posters who enjoy stirring up trouble by putting me in the frame. I generally drop off the blog if they turn up on the site. They are simply not worth the keyboard strokes.
I’ve been on the site since around Anzac Day 2023.
I’ll hang around until after the election and then I’ll drop off the site again.
My election night routine is always a bottle of passion pop, a packet of chips, Antony Green and PB!
Love reading the PB comments live as an election unfolds, so I’ll hang around for a bit longer.
Thankyou.
New thread.
@Nadia:
“ * The A.L.P. federally, will not be picking up four(4) more divisions in Victoria. The poster who keeps
repeating this, needs to cease, because it simply is not happening.”
_____
I don’t think even us rusted in partisan stooges place much credence in Scott’s predictions, but right now you have a beef not just with him but YouGov’s latest MRP poll which suggests Labor is on the cusp of making further gains whilst also sandbagging a bunch of marginals.
Now for your next comment – which IMO proves perfectly your annoying habit of conflating polling analysis with your own punditry without acknowledging that you are doing exactly that:
“ Likely LNP pickups (from my read), in Victoria, are as follows;
* Monash (from ind Lib)
* Kooyong (from Teal)
* McEwen (from Labor)
* Aston (from Labor)
* Dunkley (from Labor)
* Goldstein (from Teal). Almost a dead cert pick up this seat (IMO). The Teal is a lemon.
* Chisholm (from Labor). Lemon Lib candidate, but if the swing is on, it’s on.”
_____
Other than perhaps Aston none of those seats could be considered ‘likely’ LNP gains based on recent polling trends over the past month. Let alone ‘almost a dead cert’.
You think the Teal in Goldstein is a dud. That is pure personal opinion. There is no reliable polling that backs that up.: only that there could be a swing; but as a matter of analysis – not punditry – usual caveats relating to seat polling and projections must apply.
On the other hand, IMO, the Liberal candidate is a selfish gronk with about as much personal appeal as leprosy: a proven political loser in that very seat.
Also, the swing may not ‘be on’ in inner and middle ring suburbs of Melbourne as you say. So Labor may well face 5%+ swings in the outer rim, but next to SFA closer to the centre. The latest polls would indicate that such a scenario is possible.
However, I do accept that all of these seats could be considered very much in play.
Bizzcansays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 4:15 pm
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 3:41 pm
In Sydney, you can arrive at Airport terminal 1, get on the one train for $5, and be on one of the world’s best beaches in under an hour (Bondi, Bronte, Tamarama, Coogee-take your pick).
There, fixed it for you.
______________________
– Sydney Airport has the $17 train access charge (perth does not have this)
– Its at least two trains to Bondi junction (perth airport line runs continuous through to Cottesloe).
– it is a 3km walk from Bondi junction to the beach (only 800m from the station to Cottesloe).
– The worst Perth beach is better than the beat Sydney beach.
– yes this is the hill I die on…
I’m not from NSW or WA, but I can sincerely say that WA has the best beaches that I’ve ever seen or been on. Absolutely stunning beaches over there Bizzcan, they are miles ahead of any beaches in the rest of Oz (Four Mile beach in Port Douglas is pretty gorgeous to be fair).