Following on from the Sunday night polling avalanche, the two pollsters that usually report at this time: the weekly Roy Morgan and the fortnightly Essential Research. Courtesy of The Guardian, Essential Research has Labor up a point to 30%, the Coalition down one to 34% and the Greens steady on 12%, with undecided at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor poking its nose in front, up one to 48% with the Coalition steady at 47% and the remainder undecided, without fundamentally upsetting a fine balance that has prevailed in this series for nearly a year.
A semi-regular question on leadership attributes records improvements for Anthony Albanese since February, sustantially so for “out of touch with ordinary people” (down six to 57%), and marginally for decisiveness (up one to 44%) and trustworthiness (up two to 44%). Peter Dutton is up two on out-of-touch to 57%, down three on decisive to 53%, and down one on trustworthy to 41%. In defiance of broadly improving signs for the government, the regular question on national mood finds only 32% rating the country as headed in the right direction, down three on a fortnight ago, with the contrary view up four to 52%. The sample for the poll was 1100 – field work dates and other results will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.
Roy Morgan’s weekly federal poll series maintains its recent run of strong results for Labor, who lead 53-47 on the headline respondent-allocated two-party measure and 53.5-46.5 based on 2022 election preference flows. The primary votes are Labor 32% (down half), Coalition 35% (down half), Greens 13% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (up one-and-a-half). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1377.
Nine Newspapers also has further results from yesterday’s Resolve Strategic poll showing 60% now believe Donald Trump’s election win has been bad for Australia, up from 40% immediately after his election in November, with only 15% rating it good, down from 29%. Numerous further questions point to a weakening of confidence in the alliance: 34% agreed that Australia should pause or withdraw from the nuclear submarines deal, with 25% disagreeing; 42% agreed Australia should rethink plans to host US nuclear submarines at Australian basis, with 24% disagreeing; 50% said Australia should avoid taking sides in a conflict between the US and China, with 18% disagreeing; 46% felt Australia should retaliate against US tariffs, with 18% disagreeing. Only 35% were clear that China (on 31%) and Russia (on 4%) posed the greater threat to Australia: 17% rated the United States the bigger threat, and 38% opted for “all equally”.
So Dutts was all about rail funding today. So where does he go? To a winery. Kilometres from the proposed rail line. In a safe Labor seat. As you do.
I would have though the Stokes owned, Rhinehart funded Nightly might have overlooked this anomaly. But no
https://thenightly.com.au/politics/federal-election-2025/ellen-ransley-crime-rail-and-business-in-focus-as-coalition-campaign-skirts-struggle-street-c-18227749?fbclid=IwY2xjawJYkNhleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHZ6Bjd9S1iU-swceY0UxrBHGjgHqBl1Ao0M6IMbgWPCWzNkeGqlpmckpWA_aem_wyh2IJsybutUEVeEWgXpsw&utm_content=bufferf4e84&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=the-west-news
When people you might expect to be friendly are laughing at you, you have a problem.
Spotted this footnote on BlueSky (by Cara Giovanetti – @idontevencara.bsky.social). (DM is Dark Matter and SM is Standard Model)
Loonies in Robertson driving around to check the correct erection of Liberal corflutes.
Dr. Reid must be in a lot of trouble there.
I note that in spruiking “tough on crime” to a select audience in Melbourne Nuckleer Pete was photographed in front of numerous variations of the Australian flag
What happened to one flag?
Then he took his audience of 6 to a vacant paddock
A real “press the flesh” guy
Of real concern is the departing Sukkar, again to a select audience, sending Australia down the sub prime debt path and taking their superannuation accruals with them
The Tories just never learn
As a Shareholder in our banks (which we all are thru our superannuation funds) I require the banks to continue to lend prudently giving due attention to purchaser equity (so LVR security where the requirement was 80%) and to the intent and capacity to service the loan
Remember also that in Australia there are joint and several Personal Covenant provisions in the mortgage document – so if you default the bank can bankrupt you
Sukkar put that interest rates are “high” which they are compared to zero (where they were for reasons) but with an Indicative Cash Rate of 4.1% interest rates are not high
It is the level of debt which is punishing, not the interest rate
And by taking money out of superannuation house prices will further increase requiring more debt to be taken on to purchase
Look at what happened when impetus was given to the housing sector to evade a post GST recession
That was when house prices escalated and debt escalated
Noting the Tories oppose wage rises to service the increase debt
RBA data confirms the foregoing
paul Asays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 8:27 pm
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 8:11 pm
Just anecdotal evidence from doing a lot of driving around the coast today. Liberal posters on public land and illegally on fences on railway land, haven’t seen one yet on someone’s private property but probably in the posher suburbs. Every Labor poster on someone’s property on private land.
=============
Jeepers, you’re sad c@t.
You really have to go driving around to see if there is a Liberal corflute infringing on public land.
What a lonely obsessed life you must lead.
No. You’re a sad case who’s just making shit up about me. I pity people like you who make crap up about people they don’t know just because they are on the other side of the political fence.
Fyi, on Tuesdays I do a round trip to the other side of the Robertson electorate to pick up and drop off a dog I look after. So I get to see the sides of the road, funnily enough.
So, if you don’t mind, could you just stfu about me unless you actually know what you’re saying about me is an actual fact? Thanks.
Dr Reid is fine, as are Jerome and Fiona. I think the NSW libs at head office ste just pissed that their gimmes are fading away
Reinhart obviously regards Dutton as a useful idiot to carry her views into Parliament and hopefully turn what she wants into legislation. Should he lose the election then he becomes of little value to her.
The answer might be for the Liberal Party to station two armed security guards 24/7 next to each corflute to protect it.
At its own cost of course.
The Coalition will abolish fines for car companies who breach targets under Australia’s first vehicle emissions standards scheme, in a major election commitment aimed at taking down the Albanese government’s claim that the price of petrol cars will not increase under Labor’s policy.
The Australian can reveal the Coalition will retain the New Vehicle Emissions Standards, but will not punish companies financially that do not meet the tough carbon goals. Coalition sources said the policy, to be announced during the campaign, has the backing of the sector.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen on Tuesday put a re-elected Albanese government on a collision course with motoring groups by declaring Labor’s vehicle standards regime would not force up the price of petrol cars, as he defied companies’ calls for the scheme to be overhauled. Mr Bowen said vehicle emissions standards had not put up the price of petrol cars “anywhere else in the world”.
The comments, in the middle of a campaign, put the onus on a re-elected Labor government to ensure car prices do not increase under its watch.
A growing number of car suppliers are warning that the targets in the NVES will put prices of petrol cars up from July 1.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2025-liberals-to-drop-fines-on-car-emissions/news-story/0a3a7d7ef914581d1fc669a243d50bd8?amp
No doubt the Greens signs were illegally placed too.
Of course the Labor signs were all meticulous in placement.
Ridiciculous post of yours cat.
paul Asays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 8:27 pm
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 8:11 pm
[Just anecdotal evidence from doing a lot of driving around the coast today. Liberal posters on public land and illegally on fences on railway land, haven’t seen one yet on someone’s private property but probably in the posher suburbs. Every Labor poster on someone’s property on private land.]
=============
[Jeepers, you’re sad c@t.
You really have to go driving around to see if there is a Liberal corflute infringing on public land.
What a lonely obsessed life you]
What a lonely obsession you have responding to what others are doing.
What are you doing tomorrow that’s so exhilarating?
They are dehumanising people 😡
Ah, Vlad the Inhaler is back!
Actually, Vlad, all the Labor posters were correctly placed.
Now, can you get in the bin with all the other people who are trying to make this all about me? leftieBrawler has observed exactly the same behaviour by the friendless Liberals in his electorate. Funny how you never pulled him up about it. Is it because I am going to do the right thing and report the candidate who is attempting to illegally spam my electorate with her posters?
Any wonder why international tourism bookings to the USA have dropped off?
And in regards education
What teachings precisely?
So right wing religious schools teaching that God makes babies, anti science and anti diversity?
Nuckleer Pete makes generalised statements always lacking specifics – and is never questioned by media
Local councils routinely take down illegally placed corflutes. It happens every election, federal, state, local, including this year’s federal election, and even (GASP!) impacts independents:
https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/the-case-of-the-local-council-and-the-disappearing-election-corflutes-20250331-p5lnzf.html
This is really no big deal so it’s unclear to me why some are carrying on like pork chops about this.
Know the rules, people!
C@t you should take Yabba down to the Council office with you.
You can always use the bicycle trick for Corflutes. But it does take some planning….
Collect up old bicycles when ever you can get them…. Hard garbage, garage sales, tips etc.
Buy the cheapest lock and chain from a $2 shop.
Zip tie the corflute to the bikes.
Lock them where ever you like.
Good for train stations or shopping strips.
They can be moved around every few days so people are not sure if someone is actually using the bike.
Honestly if Peter gets minority I don’t think any major party getting majority I think he’s gonna have a hard time getting any legislation through because let’s be honest tart negotiate the senate even when you got a lot of people on your side in it
News cycle on Thursday will be Trump focused. If you were smart announce nothing on Thursday or the policies that you don’t want any focus on (“taking a dump”).
Vladsays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 9:06 pm
Greens c0rflute on public land = crime scene required.
Pathetic.
===============================================
Hopefully, the Greens respect their environment enough not to pollute it this way. Right-wing groups, with no respect for the environment, are more likely to pollute public land in this manner, I would have thought.
@Socrates:
“ There have been several pieces about Australian defence policy including AUKUS published today following Turnbull’s security forum held in Canberra yesterday.
This detailed piece by Hans Ohff details the difficulties in delivering AUKUS, especially the challenges of potentially maintaining Collins class SSKs whilst learning to maintain Virginia class SSNs and build SSN AUKUS class SSNs. All have different systems. The trained people challenge alone is enormous. It looks an almost impossible task.
https://johnmenadue.com/post/2025/03/the-sisyphean-task-of-the-royal-australian-navy-to-maintain-and-operate-the-submarine-capability/
Ohff also mentions the French Barracuda class, which he acknowledges would have solved many problems. However he dismisses it on the basis of difficulties with converting everything from French to English language and Australian standards. Replacing the French CMS with the US CMS is cited as a particular issue. He does not consider the obvious solution of not requiring the US CMS to be fitted, which would save both billions and years.”
______
Ohff seems to be setting up a series of straw men arguments regarding ‘the French option’.
Obviously, there is no way that Naval Group in Cherbourg could build 8 ‘Aussie Suffren’ class subs for us in a timely fashion. In addition to finishing up the remaining three french Suffren class boats this decade the yard is committed to building four next generation SSBN subs, admittedly at a very slow drum beat but those boats are expected to all be in service by 2050. In addition the yard will be engaged in the build of four conventional barracuda design reference boats for the Dutch Navy over a similar time frame. That means however, that a pretty slow drum beat of one boat per two years the yard does have spare capacity: not for 8 boats by the early 2050s, but for the three nuclear boats that macron offered Albo back in 2022. It is not an insurmountable problem to translate all the relevant comms and subsystems from French to English, and if the RAN still insists on using an American combat system, the ground has been largely broken via the 5 years work done on the Attack class program. … but these are software and firmware issues. The real problem relates to the fact that we are out of options for the hardware. Right now the four available build slots in Cherbourg are freeing up as the remaining Suffren class boats are launched. The new SSBN will take one of them. A Dutch boat will take another, leaving two spare ones by 2028. We need to secure these as a plan B soon. Start building the hardware modules for the Aussie Suffren’s asap and integrate the English language software stuff later on: it wont be required until the mid 2030s.
As for an Australian build, simply go back to the Attack class being build in Adelaide first – four boats laid down between 2028 and say 2032. Use the French resources to help us with building modules whilst we get our workforce up to speed, and start assembling them in Adelaide by around 2033. Once the French have build two ‘Aussie Suffrens’ Osborne in Adelaide would be a far way through a four block Attack class build and then capable of taking the French learnings and start building ‘Aussie Suffrens’ to follow the Attack class subs (so starting off slowing in the mid 2030s, with the aussie build nuclear boats delivered to the RAN from around 2043). In the meantime, Naval group in France could probably build a third and final french build Aussie Suffren.
By my reckoning it would therefore be possible to start delivering two french built ‘Aussie Suffrens’ to the RAN by 2035, with the Attack Class also being available from around 2036-40. the third French build Suffren would be available in the early 2040s, with 3-4 Aussie built Suffrens coming into service by 2050-2.
However, for this to work, hard decisions would have to be made by the Australian government in the next term. So, while possible I just don’t think something like what I’ve set out will happen for political reasons.
I hate to say it, but the only politically realistic plan B would involve ditching the American Virginia Class plan in favour of a 4-6 boat Attack class build in Adelaide (so starting in around 2028, with fast-racking possible by a joint Australian-french module construction operation spread between the facilities in Cherbourg and Osborne and then – throwing everything we have at getting BAE Systems up to speed to actually be able to deliver SSN-AUKS subs to the RAN by 2043 (and if we are committed to building 4-6 Attack class subs to replace Collins over the next 15 years or so, this may mean we would need BAE at Barrow to build the first Aussie SSN-AUKUS in the UK.
One further fly in the ointment – if the US-UK ‘special relationship’ completely breaks down over the next four years then even the UK end of AUKUS is likely fucked, and the British Nuclear Submarine Industry as we know it along with it, given how reliant the UK is on American nuclear propulsion technology. … so it may not be just Australia running to France for help, the Brits may end up beating us there!
Anyone who criticised Zelensky for his choice of clothes when visiting the white house, thoughts on this undignified spectacle please.
Lars Von Trier,
Unsavoury and unnecessary comment by you @ 9.10pm, as per your standard operating procedure.
Presumably, hence…:
I never seen America become that much for pariah so fast that the European Union in China a thinking of a trade relationship maybe we need to our view of America
Also know this is early days but lab is doing really well in this campaign like I said months ago this is gonna be a minority government or what I said n88 both sides will not like election night
gollsays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 8:57 pm
paul Asays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 8:27 pm
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 8:11 pm
[Just anecdotal evidence from doing a lot of driving around the coast today. Liberal posters on public land and illegally on fences on railway land, haven’t seen one yet on someone’s private property but probably in the posher suburbs. Every Labor poster on someone’s property on private land.]
=============
[Jeepers, you’re sad c@t.
You really have to go driving around to see if there is a Liberal corflute infringing on public land.
What a lonely obsessed life you]
What a lonely obsession you have responding to what others are doing.
What are you doing tomorrow that’s so exhilarating?
———————
Goll,
I might go for a drive around my electorate and check whether the A.L.P signs are placed correctly.
The party that can’t even build a carpark claims it is going to stop building the eastern part of the loop and start building the western part. I am sure they will manage the stop part, they are excellent at stopping, the go part, not so sure.
Indoctrination = being taught reality.
Not indoctrination = Billions of dollars being spent on private & religious schools that reinforce existing right wing propaganda.
Private schools are funded by the commonwealth and Dutton plans on closing the department that disperses the funds.
That is an interesting policy.
”The party that can’t even build a carpark claims it is going to…”
…build seven nuclear reactors in a fraction of the time taken and cost incurred by nations with long-established nuclear power.
frednk @ #448 Tuesday, April 1st, 2025 – 9:35 pm
Yep, as I said earlier he really hasn’t thought this through.
Or perhaps he has and just hasn’t run it past his partyroom.
Peter “Capital C”.
You’re a real bonza chum on this site. Real working class labor values. A real champ!
I might go for a drive around my electorate and check whether the A.L.P signs are placed correctly.
And that obsession to try and prove me wrong will prove absolutely nothing at the end of the day because your electorate is not my electorate, paulA.
A fascinating conversation between Michael Wolff and Rick Wilson:
https://youtu.be/Z21Tj19JYag?si=8XNScHuqJcM-M9FV
Just watched that excellent ABC reporter Matt Doran’s gut-wrenching coverage of the Israeli military’s slaughter of the 15 medics, their burial in a mass grave along with the remains of their shelled ambulances. One wonders about the lack of humanity of the IDF who tried to cover up their war crime in such an obscene, clumsy way.
———————————————————————————————————————–
We’re all familiar with the Biblical admonition “an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.”
The total number of just aid workers, health workers, medics, ambulance crews and journalists killed in Gaza is now approaching the number of Israelis massacred by terrorists on October 7 2023. That would seem to be sufficient retribution for that terrible event.
As for the other tens of thousands of unarmed Palestinian men, women and children murdered by the IDF, with almost all of Gaza reduced to rubble and the survivors facing starvation, what’s the excuse? Oh, of course I forget: “they’re all Hamas fighters and they started it.”
Anyone looking for proportionality should ask: just how many Israelis have been killed by terrorists since Oct. 7, 2023? Palestinians 50,000 – dot Israelis. Fill in the dot.
And in speaking of the state of Israel, I’m referring to its government which is responsible for these atrocities, not the Jewish people. But anyone who speaks up for the Palestinian victims and calls for an end to Netanyahu’s genocide is labelled anti-Semitic and accused of hate speech. .That carries significant penalties as we are seeing with Trump’s ICE storm-troopers deporting people who have expressed their outrage.
For those of us who are clearly not anti-Semitic and wish the Israeli people would get rid of these Likud clowns, , those charges have a chilling effect on our freedom of speech. Even these remarks may be extracted using AI and possibly used against me in the future, which is what is happening in the United States right now.
We hear sporadically that some Israelis are taking to the streets and protesting their government’s brutality. I’d like to hear from Australian Jewish community leaders about the fate of tens of thousands of their fellow human beings in Gaza. I’ve heard a lot about a dozen instances of graffiti and vandalism here provoked by the events in Gaza.
In view of what happened on October 7, it’s not realistic to expect our Jewish friends and neighbours to just “turn the other cheek.”
But as sensitive as we are to their grief over that horror, we ought also to expect some Australian Jewish leader to speak up and say to bloodthirsty Netanyahu: “enough is enough.” If I’ve overlooked any such criticism please let me know.
Now William, you’d probably better impose another moratorium.
Err Starmer government has let in 30,000 illegals but Trump removes them from USA and lefties hit the biased roof!
beguiledagain
https://www.jewishcouncil.com.au/
Who/what is the Working Class I keep hearing the red necks throw at Labor?
Most in Oz would consider themselves in the Middle Class and well and truly in the workforce – one way or the other.
The irony is the the Nationals own the poorest electorates in Oz
Is this the Working Class the rabid right refer to?
pied pipersays:
Tuesday, April 1, 2025 at 9:57 pm
Err Starmer bragging his government has removed 30,000 illegals but Trump does it and lefties hit the biased roof!
===================================================
Source?
I could only find Nigel Farage saying that number had entered the country but nothing about that number being deported.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_Council_of_Australia
beguiledagain
I approve of your post. Too true.
Piper you idiot….
Trump was supposed to move 11 million illegals…..11,ooo a drop in the bucket.
In any event if Dutton gets in thousands of Oz citizens and passport holders from the UK say are in line to be thrown out of Oz.
That should fix the problem for Oz as all those millions of 10 pound Poms are sent back to Blighty.
Reckon Oz population would shrink to about 7 million – much the way it was before the cry went up in the late 1940s of ‘Populate or Perish’.
AE 9:18
“One further fly in the ointment – if the US-UK ‘special relationship’ completely breaks down over the next four years then even the UK end of AUKUS is likely fucked, and the British Nuclear Submarine Industry as we know it along with it, given how reliant the UK is on American nuclear propulsion technology. … so it may not be just Australia running to France for help, the Brits may end up beating us there!”
——————————————–
Yes I find it extraordinary that this point (risk with UK options) is not getting more discussion regarding AUKUS. USA is not the only risk.
There have already been multiple UK defense press articles questioning whether the Royal Navy SSNs and SSBNs face vulnerability because of the US IP in their reactors. Just as USA under Biden stuck their nose into AUKUS to get what they wanted (cash and SSN basing rights) there is nothing to stop a future US president making similar demands of SSN AUKUS.
The obvious option that has not been considered is a modular build. The front half of an SSN is bigger, but not conceptually more complex than an SSK. If Australia wanted to build SSNs, the obvious solution would be to share production. First build the reactor compartment/modules in the country of the reactors design, and then build the rest of the sub in ASC. Finally join the two parts. USA does this for all their SSNs.
This approach would allow an earlier start to ASC construction, and a much larger build than would be possible if each yard built complete SSN hulls.
Anyway, regardless of how flawed AUKUS is, it looks increasingly unlikely that senior defense or political decision makers are capable of admitting their errors and adopting a more technically rational plan. Just as Australian strategists can’t let go of US and UK to develop strategies, RAN project managers can’t let go of their attachment to the RN and UK shipbuilders. If only all taxpayers and voters understood what this weakness cost them.
Source? It’s on my pie!d piper.
Still waiting to see how many votes Austin Trump got!
“The Australian can reveal the Coalition will retain the New Vehicle Emissions Standards, but will not punish companies financially that do not meet the tough carbon goals.”
So, they will not enforce the law?? There is a sound position to take during an election campaign in the shadow of Trump trashing the rule of law in the US. 🙁
DOGEee Dutton, the Temu Trump.
beguiledagain,
You know and I know that Netanyahu feels unbound and unaccountable now that Trump is in office in America. Trump has promised him whatever he wants to finish the job and the Stochastic terrorism that Trump has unleashed is having a chilling effect on the voices of those who would speak up against them.
With some degree of justification when you hear about the horrific disappearances, now of people legally in the United States, simply for the crime of voicing criticism of Israel or supporting the Palestinians.
The Orthodox Jews and Zionists who are supporting this should be ashamed of themselves, especially after what their people have been through historically. However, Trump 2.0 is all about ‘Revenge and Retribution’ and they are along for the ride.
https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-kos-samaras-on-polls-and-the-people-wholl-decide-this-election-253531
Some snippets of opinion but no data as such..