A big day for federal opinion polling, with at least the possibility of more to come:
• The regular Newspoll from The Australian finds the Coalition leading 51-49, unchanged on three weeks ago, from primary votes of Labor 31% (steady), Coalition 38% (down one), Greens 12% (steady) and One Nation 7% (undecided). Anthony Albanese is steady at 37% approval and up one on approval to 58%, while Peter Dutton is respectively up one to 41% and steady on 51%. No sign yet of a preferred prime minister result (UPDATE: Albanese’s lead widens 44-41 to 45-40). The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1244.
• YouGov has the first of what it promises will be regular multi-level regression and post-stratification polling, a formidable effort compiled from 40,689 interviews conducted between January 22 and February 12. This produces estimates for all 150 electorates based on their demography, which you can learn more about on the YouGov site. Its median projection is 73 seats for the Coalition, 66 for Labor, eight for independents and one each for the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and the Centre Alliance. For all the talk of Victoria, it suggests Labor’s biggest headache is New South Wales, where it trails in Bennelong, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Hunter, Macquarie, Paterson, Robertson, Shortland and Werriwa. A summary list names Labor’s other projected losses as Aston, Chisholm and McEwen in Victoria, Bullwinkel and Tangney in Western Australia, and Lyons in Tasmania, though there may be more to it than that because the full data set also finds the Liberals marginally favoured in Boothby in South Australia. With the caveat that MRP has a better record with standard two-party contests than with minor parties and independents, Labor is favoured in all three of the Greens-held seats in Brisbane (even historically conservative Ryan) and to recover Fowler from Dai Le, while the teal incumbents are reckoned to be “safe”. In terms of national voting intention, the Coalition leads 51.1-48.9 on two party preferred from primary votes of Labor 29.1%, Coalition 37.4%, Greens 12.7% and One Nation 9.1%. An excellent results display allows you to bring up each electorate’s results individually and download a full data set.
• The News Corp papers have the first instalment of a promised “tracking poll” series by RedBridge Group and Accent Research targeting a selected sample of 20 marginal seats, chosen to reflect a balance across states, city and country and Labor-held and Coalition-held. The poll finds the Coalition with a two party lead across the seats of 52-48, compared with a 51-49 lead for Labor across the seats in question in 2022. The primary votes are Labor 33%, Coalition 43% and Greens 12% – by my reckoning, the combined result in these seats in 2022 was Labor 33.9%, Coalition 38.3% and Greens 11.1%. As with the recent conventional RedBridge Group federal poll, Coalition voters were more firm (61% solid, 31% soft) than Labor voters (45% and 41%) in their voting intention. The poll was conducted February 4 to 11 from a sample of 1002. The series will proceed on a fortnightly basis until the election is called and a weekly basis thereafter.
And a big week on the electoral law front:
• The government’s campaign finance legislation passed in the Senate on Wednesday after it won Coalition support by increased the proposed cap on donations from $20,000 to $50,000 and reducing the proposed cut in the threshold on public disclosure of donations, currently at $16,900, to $5000 rather than $1000. Teal independents remain aggrieved that they will be limited to spending $800,000 on their individual campaigns, whereas the parties will be able to supplement their locally directed efforts with their nationally targeted advertising, and say they will seek to reverse the changes if they gain the balance of power at the next election.
• Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the Cormack Foundation, which manages about $125 million in Victorian Liberal Party assets, may have broken the rules in making a $500,000 donation to right-wing campaign group Advance Australia without the knowledge of the party. In common with Labor’s similar Services & Holdings entity, the Cormack Foundation is exempt from the state’s $5000 donations cap only if operated for the “sole” or “principal” benefit of the relevant party, and a similar provision applies in the legislation passed in federal parliament last week. Chip Le Grand of The Age reported in December that a group of unsuccessful independents were preparing a High Court challenge against the exemption in Victoria.
• The High Court this week rejected Clive Palmer’s attempt to have a law preventing deregistered parties from re-registering before another election is held declared unconstitutional. His United Australia Party voluntarily deregistered after the 2022 election, citing administrative reasons. The provision was intended to prevent newly deregistered parties having their names appropriate by newcomers, and did not envision an existing party behaving as Palmer’s has done, for which electoral law expect Graeme Orr says was likely motivated to avoid having to make financial disclosures. The ruling did not discourage Palmer from cranking up his customary pre-election advertising onslaught this week.
There is no such thing as eco facism.
Such a massive decision and cut in rates it was today for the RBA according to the RW media. Now its:
“One-cut wonder: rates call hands PM election trigger”
“PM won’t get much credit for this
A single cut may remind borrowers how much they have lost.”
“‘Very small’ reduction.”
https://www.sapiens.org/culture/caucasian-terminology-origin/
Interesting article on the use of the term Caucasian. White, not so much.
When the Irish weren’t white.
https://www.theroot.com/when-the-irish-weren-t-white-1793358754 “
“How is your husband?”
Which one?
The bald cranky one.
A scan of the headlines indicates that Sydney Morning Herald’s coverage of the interest rate cut be far more favourable than other outlets, even that of its stablemate in Melbourne:
https://www.smh.com.au/
Unlike the other outlets, it isn’t campaigning for Dutton.
imaccasays:
Interesting article on the use of the term Caucasian. White, not so much.
________
I remember when I was about 12 a news report came on about two criminals on the run described as ‘Caucasians’. My old Aunty was watching with me and muttered ‘bloody Asians’.
Peta Dutton
They just hadn’t invented the bath yet.
Now that there has been a rate cut, I tend to think there would be greater incentive to continue with the budget as planned and go to an election in May.
I guess if we are limiting the white discussion to Australia only then most of us still have descended from the British. But we are sort of a growing mix now. Walking around Australia these days it’s so common to see mixed couples and family groups the term is slowly being absorbed.
“davesays:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 10:14 pm
It is all about relativities……irish and jewish weren’t white before the mass mediterranean immigration
_______________
The Irish weren’t white? cmon. the mixed marriages between the Irish and Anglos in Australia have been going on since day dot.”
Australia was deeply sectarian and mixed marriages as often as not resulted in disownment.
It is probably a legacy of historic discrimination of irish catholics that that history is unknown to people that contribute to a political blog today.
steve davissays:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 10:20 pm
Peta Dutton
They just hadn’t invented the bath yet.
================================================
Even after it was invented the English still refused to use it.
Skin colour should no longer divide us, now we have vaccines. As you can’t catch melanin off someone but you certainly can catch measles.
As it not the great unwashed that worries me, it is the great unpoxed.
Davidwh
Its a multicultural society nowadays for better or for worse. I found that in places like Dubai as well, not much different.
Australia was deeply sectarian and mixed marriages as often as not resulted in disownment.
It is probably a legacy of historic discrimination of irish catholics that that history is unknown to people that contribute to a political blog today.
_____________________________
Probably more likely that working class people were not as snobby as the middle class and have a history of not giving a shit about all that.
According to Google white Australians are anyone of European decent and that 90% of us are white.
“Even after it was invented the English still refused to use it.”
I still hide my money under the soap.
The Revisionist
That’s nothing, some of the bloggers here think that Cromwell was a progressive sort of guy.
The Maltese were interesting, for much of the C20 they were considered to be African as far as the immigration department was concerned but post WWII there was a need for labourers and they suddenly went from black to white.
Way back in my prehistoric youth Catholic/Anglican weddings were frowned upon.
Steve777says:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 10:19 pm
A scan of the headlines indicates that Sydney Morning Herald’s coverage of the interest rate cut be far more favourable than other outlets, even that of its stablemate in Melbourne:
https://www.smh.com.au/
Unlike the other outlets, it isn’t campaigning for Dutton.
_______________________
Even Crikey’s post cut coverage was couched in largely negative terms.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/02/18/reserve-bank-interest-rate-cut-mortgage-savings-house-deposit/
Also deeply disappointed about the lack of unhinged infographics from the Daily Mail (like during the rate rise period)
“It is probably a legacy of historic discrimination of irish catholics that that history is unknown to people that contribute to a political blog today.”
I remember back when i wus a youngun there was still talk of taboo associations betwixt Proddies and Catholics.
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 10:33 pm
Way back in my prehistoric youth Catholic/Anglican weddings were frowned upon.
_________________
Well I did my family tree during COVID and there were that many Catholics marrying Anglicans that you couldn’t keep track of where an Irishman and an Englishman began.
“Caucasian” (Caucasoid) is an outdated ethnic term that was applied to a large fraction of the Earth’s population. It included “whites” (i.e Indigenous Europeans and their descendants), but also the peoples of North Africa, the Middle East and the Subcontinent. The other groups were “Negroid” (sub-Saharan Africans) and “Mongoloid” (East Asian, Native American, some Pacific peoples). Indigenous Australians were sometimes regarded as another separate grouping (Australoid).
These terms are mostly no longer used, basically because they are not useful. The word “Caucasian” is still often used, incorrectly, to apply to “whites”.
“It is probably a legacy of historic discrimination of irish catholics that that history is unknown to people that contribute to a political blog today.”
And it’s not like I’m not aware of discrimination against Irish, smartass. I was talking about their status as ‘white’ and the fact that there were countless marriages between Irish and English/Scots.
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 10:31 pm
The Revisionist
That’s nothing, some of the bloggers here think that Cromwell was a progressive sort of guy.
=====================================================
While the Irish were stick-in-the-muds, who just wanted to keep with the existing English monarchy ruling them.
Dave yes they tended to ignore religious taboos a lot back in those days often for obvious reasons
Taniasays:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 9:49 pm
I have been lurking on this site for a long time, so I wanted to add my prediction about the result of the Federal election due soon.
I am predicting that the Coalition will win a small majority from winning seats off Labor in the outer suburbs and provincial cities across the whole country. Also, the Coalition could have a senate it could work with.
_____________________
Don’t be a stranger Tania.
Oh, yes there is.
They are attacking people’s houses here in WA, are getting a slap on the wrist from the Judge, and are shamelessly unapologetic.
Decades ago my uncle was in his front yard and a postie with an English accent appeared at the front gate and said to him ‘did you know the woman two doors down is married to a black man?’
My uncle said to him with a straight face. ‘That’s nothing. A sheila across the road is married to a Pom’.
Taylormadesays:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 10:41 pm
Taniasays:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 9:49 pm
I have been lurking on this site for a long time, so I wanted to add my prediction about the result of the Federal election due soon.
I am predicting that the Coalition will win a small majority from winning seats off Labor in the outer suburbs and provincial cities across the whole country. Also, the Coalition could have a senate it could work with.
_____________________
Don’t be a stranger Tania.
================================================
Sounds like a prediction of an extreme right Trumpian Utopia. I wounder why TM likes it so much?
Oh well, i better read up on how to escape concentration camps and survive in the bush. So dave how much money would you take as a guard, to let me escape?
By money, i mean cryptocurrency of course, as this is a potential Trumpian type future.
A 25 basis point cut in interest rates means about $250 per annum per $100K of loan outstanding, or about $4.80 per week. On a mortgage of $600,000 taken out recently, about $28 per week. Not huge, but useful.
As the RBA Governor is reported as saying today, the reduction in the Target Cash Rate to 4.1% will assist home mortgage borrowers (if on a variable rate) BUT inflation hurts everyone
A couple of things
Another 25 Basis Point reduction in the Target Cash Rate will take it to 3.85%
Given inflation within band, so 2/3%, how low can the Target Cash Rate go?
IF we get to the Target Cash Rate at o.1% (so where it has come from) Australia will be in deep recession hence the accommodating setting
Simply, since the GFC the Target Cash Rate has been at unprecedented accommodative settings and for specific reason – to act as a catalyst for an economic recovery (noting the RBA also bought back their own securities to inject liquidity)
This has been the situation since the GFC of 2008 until post pandemic inflation for the reasons that saw that inflation (so Global factors)
In regards Government responses we have seen what the Australian government has done as compared to (for example) NZ and now America where Stiglitz pens that investment into the USA is risk and that stagflation is in prospect (and he does not carry his reputation for no reason)
Hence the RBA caution deferring to data as the driver
What I do note is that there is no reference, absolutely none, to the reduction in interest rates being paid on deposits
Which will impact on significantly more than just mortgage holders
And, of course those with consumer debt including on their vehicles will receive no respite – only mortgage holders on variable rates
My advice to those with mortgage debt is not to run to your friendly banker asking for your monthly instalment to be reduced but to focus on the long game of repaying your mortgage debt
And imagined our poor bankers IF people sought a reduction in their monthly principal plus interest instalments!!
These are set and forget products which is why any current interest rate is not what those repayments are based on
The banks do not have the human resource to advise and then monitor changes to the interest rate viz a viz monthly instalments
The only time you will hear from them IF interest rates rise to such a level that the monthly repayment is not covering interest
And if you do not pay your property insurance the Covenants in the mortgage allow the Bank to debit your account or apply the premium to your debt
Noting there are also Personal Covenant clauses in the mortgage, joint and several
The equation of owning more of your home than the bank does is a factor of debt repayment and the increasing valuation of the property
You purchase your home at a younger age, the serviceability based on your then household income
So over the ensuing years your income increases including by promotion in the work place
Your mortgage repayments stay the same
Hence I call out this “crisis” absent a particular set of personal circumstances and restricted to recent buyers
We never see any analysis by media – just a headline pandering to an agenda
And a good one Dave!!
True story
Visiting my place of birth with my sons, my mother who survived my Father unfortunately, asked who was that black man who played cricket that you and your Father knew?
Garry Sobers
It gave the opportunity to educate my sons
But there are people out there who are like my mother, unfortunately
Peter Csays:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 11:12 pm
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This is the beginning of long rate easing cycle i suspect. All this talk of high employment meaning rates want come down further, is just that, BS. With inflation under control the next main driver of rates will be GDP. The current GDP setting is below what is desired by the RBA. The crazy economic policies of the Demented Don will put further downward pressure on world GDP, over the period of his incumbency. Expect rates to go down, to stop us joining USA, in their Trump induced recession, which is coming soon.
And just to clarify, the pressure on recent borrowers is down to any fall in the valuation of the property wiping your equity
And Entropy, read Stiglitz, to whom I defer
There are conflicts such as AI propelling Company profits driving (sectors of) Sharemarkets
Then tariffs, which I covered the other day referring to Europe and why European Bond Markets are an investment based on reducing interest rates to give stimulus to that Region
These are the complexities – or some of them
Not the servicing of the debt
On grandfathers, I only found out in the last few years from Dad before he died that my grandfather fought and killed Russians while serving in the Finnish White Army fighting the Red Army in Finland during the Finnish war of independence (part of Russian Civil War where Reds lost.) He later moved to Australia in the late 20s and settled in Brisbane.
On sectarianism yes it was alive and well in 1950s rural Queensland. My catholic mother said one local boy was forbidden to see her by his anglican family. Happily she soon after met dad, who was presbyterian but agreed for any children to be raised catholic. If he had not signed a document to that effect the priest would not have married them. I’m an atheist 🙂
Peter Csays:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 11:29 pm
And just to clarify, the pressure on recent borrowers is down to any fall in the valuation of the property wiping your equity
Not the servicing of the debt
===================================================
Though falls in interest rates tend to increase and not decrease property values. As lower interest rates tend to make at least some people willing to pay more for property.
Socratessays:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 11:32 pm
On grandfathers, I only found out in the last few years from Dad before he died that my grandfather fought and killed Russians while serving in the Finnish White Army fighting the Red Army in Finland during the Finnish war of independence (part of Russian Civil War where Reds lost.) He later moved to Australia in the late 20s and settled in Brisbane.
On sectarianism yes it was alive and well in 1950s rural Queensland. My catholic mother said one local boy was forbidden to see her by his anglican family. Happily she soon after met dad, who was presbyterian but agreed for any children to be raised catholic. If he had not signed a document to that effect the priest would not have married them. I’m an atheist
====================================================
Do you think that priest would still prefer that, then you being a presbyterian?
To be fair, considering the document the Catholic Church were making perspective suitors sign. Are you surprised some parents had that attitude? “My catholic mother said one local boy was forbidden to see her by his anglican family.”
The Anglican or Presbyterian churches were obviously not getting people to sign like documents. As then it would be a Mexican standoff. It sounds like the Catholic Church thought it was Rumpelstiltskin, except he only wanted the first child and not all.
Too early for a “Downfall” parody for Albo?
The Harris one is hilarious.
https://youtu.be/OQTDRLN856U?si=C7rtpoBpc-Vv5hIA
Twaddle FUBAR. The attempt to link left wing causes to the political ideology of fascism is a well worn strategy of the right. Witness Trump and his Antifa nonsense. It is fallacious and Orwellian. Fascism is a rightwing ideology. The right owns it, not the left.
When I started going out with a Catholic girl we would go to Mass on a Friday evening. I was surprised to find that the Catholic service was almost identical to the Anglican service.
I was pleased to discover that Catholic girls are as enthusiastic as Protestant ones.
New thread.
If Trump negotiates the end of the war in Ukraine (however lopsided) does he deserve the Nobel Peace prize?
steve davis says:
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 at 10:16 pm
Such a massive decision and cut in rates it was today for the RBA according to the RW media. Now its:
“One-cut wonder: rates call hands PM election trigger”
“PM won’t get much credit for this
A single cut may remind borrowers how much they have lost.”
“‘Very small’ reduction.”
——————————————-
Rather like how ex Liberal Senator Amanda Vanstone called a Howard government tax cut: equal to 1 milkshake and sandwich a week.
The cost of most items has risen significantly over the last few years.
The Annual Wage Rise Index graph from 2013 says it all
Have a look