Following a week in which abortion unexpectedly took centre stage of the Queensland election campaign, The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports the issue “has helped Labor’s cause in Brisbane, where it faces losses to the LNP and the Greens”. The evidence for this would appear to be Labor internal polling suggesting Grace Grace is well placed to retain the Greens target of McConnel, outpolling them 27% to 24% with the LNP on 34%. This is quite a bit different from polling the column published from a different source last week, which had the Greens on 37.9%, the LNP on 27.4% and Labor on 27.2%. A “senior Labor insider” is further quoted saying a party that feared a near wipeout regionally, leaving it only with Gladstone outside of Brisbane, now sees “glimmers of hope in Cairns, Rockhampton and Maryborough”.
The other big event for the week was the closure of nominations and ballot paper draws, revealing a decline in the total number of candidates to 525 (5.6%) from 597 (6.4%) in 2020. A breakdown from Antony Green shows Labor, the LNP, the Greens and One Nation are contesting all seats, Family First is putting in its biggest effort in some time with 59 candidates, with lesser numbers from Legalise Cannabis, Katter’s Australian Party, Animal Justice and the Libertarians.
Also of note: the website Australian Election Forecasts, operating off an admittedly shallow pool of data, calculates an 85.8% chance the LNP will have a “clear path to government” compared with 4.4% for Labor, the median predicted outcome being 55 seats for the LNP, 29 for Labor, three each for the Greens and Katter’s Australian Party and one independent.
Badthinkersays:
Friday, October 18, 2024 numerous posts on abortion issue:
The usual serial drivel from you today!
Your constant rewriting of history (wrong facts and wrong explanations of why things happened) is bloody tedious. You are so far off the mark in almost everything you write that it cannot be stupidity or mistake; you must be doing it deliberately. One wonders why.
Have you ever even been to Queensland? Maybe a weekend on the Gold Coast 20 years ago?
For your information the harassment and persecution of people involved in reproductive health under the Bjelke-Petersen regime was vicious, prolonged and intense. There was a clinic close to my place.
I well remember the regular presence of nasty gangs of crackpots lined up along the footpath in front of the clinic. They were there to intimidate the desperate and vulnerable women trying to access the clinic and also the staff as they came and went.
The campaign was so prolonged and vociferous that it drove one surgeon to suicide.
Then you want to pile on the hate by making up bullshit about him actually being motivated only by a desire to reduce the population. You must be very proud of yourself.
I guess you fit right in with your LNP mates.
The campaign was so prolonged and vociferous that it drove one surgeon to suicide.
Then you want to pile on the hate by making up bullshit about him actually being motivated only by a desire to reduce the population. You must be very proud of yourself.
Are you saying protests drove Bayliss to suicide?
He has died, but I believe he was long retired and it was of natural causes.?
I well remember the regular presence of nasty gangs of crackpots lined up along the footpath in front of the clinic. They were there to intimidate the desperate and vulnerable women trying to access the clinic and also the staff as they came and went.
Where did that happen?
My memory is of the Police moving protesters on from blocking access to Abortion clinics very smartly.
You should remember, though, protest isn’t limited to causes that you personally approve of.
Death of Bayliss:
https://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/bayliss-peter-john-33184
Would it be an overstatement to say that the lnp will not be winning Stretton ?
Katter jnr and snr were part of the alp till the 1957 split. Soon after they joined the dlp qld version.. Katter snr then became a country party mhr who held ministerial office I think. In the meantime Katter jnr became the member for Flinders under Joh and the nats.
After the seat was abolished … something to do with fair boundaries he stood for his father’s old seat Kennedy and won as a national. He had some differences with the nats and left to eventually form Kap . His son Robbie if now a state mp .
DLP wasn’t founded until 1963 in Qld.
Many QLP members declined to be part of the merger, including former Tresurer Ted Walsh, who sat as an Independent until 1969.
Katter’s were QLP members, never DLP.
edit: There was no 1957 ‘Split’.
The Party’s Central Executive expelled the Premier and all but one Minister over the issue of 3 weeks Annual Leave for Qld Government employees. Gair had refused on the grounds that doing so would require retrenchments in the Railways, which he wasn’t prepared to do.
Mick the LNP were never going to win Stretton.
Badthinkersays:
Friday, October 18, 2024 at 3:47 pm
…………………..Are you saying protests drove Bayliss to suicide?
==============================================
Not those protests specifically in isolation; they were part of a decades long campaign of persecution and vilification that had its toll on him.
He has died, but I believe he was long retired and it was of natural causes.?
========================================================
He died on 30 March 1999. His death was attributed to “a heart condition brought on by sleeping pill toxicity”. So, overdosed on sleeping pills.
I well remember the regular presence of nasty gangs of crackpots lined up along the footpath in front of the clinic. They were there to intimidate the desperate and vulnerable women trying to access the clinic and also the staff as they came and went.
Where did that happen?
=======================================
Greenslopes in this case, but various other clinics as well.
My memory is of the Police moving protesters on from blocking access to Abortion clinics very smartly.
===============================================
Of course there were well publicised instances of Police moving troublemakers on. They had to be seen to be doing the right thing.
However, the following is an example of how it worked in practice:
“Under pressure from the anti-abortion group Right to Life, the conservative Bjelke-Petersen government soon looked for ways to shut the service down. Early in 1979 police visited the clinic but took no action in response to what was revealed to be a fraudulent complaint. Following this an attempt by the government in 1980 to change the law failed when some of its members crossed the floor to defeat the Pregnancy Termination Control Bill, allowing Bayliss and Errey to continue their work. When State cabinet authorised a raid on the clinic, Bayliss rose to national prominence. Taking place on 20 May 1985, ‘Operation Lost Cause’ involved police cordoning the area as a crime scene, confiscating 18,000 patient files, and arresting and holding Bayliss at the police watchhouse. Extensive newspaper and television coverage included images of terrified women running from the clinic and police searching drains for foetal evidence. The raid and publicity surrounding it triggered intense public, professional, and political outrage. In June the Full Court of the Supreme Court of Queensland ruled that the warrants used were invalid and ordered all medical files to be returned. Charges against Bayliss were dropped the following month.
The government persisted until the basis for a test case was established in August that year when Bayliss and the anaesthetist Dawn Cullen were charged with ‘unlawfully using force to a woman with intent to procure her miscarriage’ (R. v. Bayliss and Cullen
, 8). They were found not guilty, Judge Frederick McGuire of the District Court interpreting Section 282 of the Criminal Code to mean that performing an abortion was not a criminal offence if not doing so threatened the mother’s physical or mental health. The judgment set a precedent for abortion and brought Queensland into line with most other States; Bayliss called it ‘a victory for the judicial system’”
You should remember, though, protest isn’t limited to causes that you personally approve of.
=========================================================
There is a difference between peaceful protest and harassing and intimidating desperate and vulnerable women in crisis.
Bit of a problem for LNP in Lytton.
Not just bad at vetting candidates for preselection it seems. LNP don’t vet candidates for preferencing either.
In Lytton LNP how to vote card listed Independent, Craig Moore, for second preference.
Turns out he is a convicted rapist and a (former) porn star.
LNP sheepishly recalling all how to vote cards and printing a new lot with the rapist now as last preference.
e.g.w. yes a bit careless of the LNP but they were never going to win Lytton either.
The qlp was the qld version of the dlp. It started qlp then became dlp. I cannot see a practical difference between the two. Of course some qlp members did refuse to join the dlp.
There was indeed a qld split which was part of the larger dlp split. The main impacts were qld and vic.
In Queensland gair was offside with the qce
They expelled him.and nearly all the cabinet except Jack Duggan. The remaining alp joined with the conservatives to dent supply and force the 1957 election.
Most seats had a qlp and an alp candidate who split the previously. United alp vote and.allowed libs and country 0arty to win enough seats to govern. Labor had been in govt prior to this from 1932 to 1957.
Later full preferential voting was introduced which detached the qlp vote from the alp and directed it to the libs and cp.
e.g.w.:
https://hiluxbb.blogspot.com/2012/03/qld-inquest-into-death-of-bayliss.html
From the earlier Biographical link:
So, while there were DV elements, it wasn’t a suicide.
The qlp was the qld version of the dlp.
No, it wasn’t.
It started qlp then became dlp.
6 years later.
I cannot see a practical difference between the two.
That’s not what the history books said.
…
There was indeed a qld split which was part of the larger dlp split.
No, it wasn’t.
…
In Queensland gair was offside with the qce
They expelled him.and nearly all the cabinet except Jack Duggan.
In 1966, Jack Duggan had a judgment against him on behalf of the ATO.
Seems good ol’ Jack had accepted 8,000 pounds
from Ampol back in 1957.
How about that?
The remaining alp joined with the conservatives to dent supply and force the 1957 election.
Another day of shame for the ALP.
They’ve had a few.
We shouldn’t derail this thread with deep conversations about abortion, so I apologise, but I do resent the pro-abortion side taking the emotive route to claim the moral high ground “I worked in hospital X and witnessed the deep and caring discussions taking place and it’s completely impossible that abortion occurs any other way regardless of how scrupulous the characters involved are” and attempting to make pro-lifers to be, on principle, wacky regardless of their specific views or nuances.
There’s differences of opinion on this, and furthermore it’s not immoral to believe that life begins at conception, or somewhere else along the way between that and 40 weeks for that matter, that might mean someone is against abortion. Furthermore, science can be cited for all strands of opinion on this including the conception one. They are increasingly discovering that pain can be felt earlier and earlier than previously believed by the unborn babe, as well as all sorts of other responses and reactions which are indicative of intelligent life – what the babies in the womb can’t do, however, is defend themselves, or give ‘their’ body a say alongside the woman’s say. I guess that’s why some demonstrate on their behalf, rightly or wrongly according to your view.
I also resent the references to ‘religion’ as if it were something quaint and 2nd rate reason for being pro-life (in other words, believing that God creates – and alone takes away – life) just because ‘I personally believe religion is all fairytales’. It’s as real for a true Christian as the sky is blue for an ‘unreligious’ person. Although the Western world is fast heading down this route, believing in the bible isn’t illegal yet AFAIK.
I’ll leave it there without responding on the topic further regardless of responses (unless extremely provoked. . .).
Unless you are over eighty years old you cannot remember the events of the split. Anyone trying to rewrite this history is a fantasist. Vince Gair was a convicted of sexual assault against children. I for one am very glad he was expelled from the ALP. He had a history of this behaviour in Queensland. My family was heavily involved in the ALP in south east Queensland and had personal experience of his behaviour. There is NO shame in expelling this sleazy man from the party. I cannot believe that anyone would have the temerity to accuse the ALP of being wrong.I have plenty more that I could say on this subject but it is too personal to disclose in a place like this. There is no defence of the DLP or the National Civic Council which can be mounted which can excuse the destruction which they caused. The DLP are the same disgraceful destructive force no matter what name they went by. They caused nothing but trouble within the labour movement. They deserved their ignominious end.
After all this, there must be some possibility of a Labor 2PP vote approaching 50%. The last poll already had them at 45%.
Admittedly, if Labor supporters are picking up more vibes in that direction they’re not sharing them that widely – but then confirmation bias (i.e. believing that Labor is toast) often prevents seeing clearly what’s in front of you.
I don’t believe this is so.
BT well said on the abortion issue.
BT if Labor is approaching 50% then the betting agencies aren’t picking it up.
Does anyone know when qld opinion polls are due?
If so when?
davidwh
“BT if Labor is approaching 50% then the betting agencies aren’t picking it up.”
True but that wouldn’t be the first time.
On EU referendum night in the UK in 2016 (commonly known as the vote for Brexit), the market was so taken by surprise that savvy observers who could clearly see that the early vote counts were implying a win for ‘Leave’ were able to get ridiculously long odds still at c. midnight or later, for ‘Leave’ and made a small fortune.
Betting companies finally woke up and quickly swung it the other way before it got any worse. I think they just hadn’t comprehended even the possibility of a ‘Leave’ win.
BT the bookies do get it wrong as shown by paying out on Labor in 2019 on the Friday before the election. But the market hasn’t moved and you would expect that if there was a move back to Labor of any magnitude then those in the know would have caused the market to tighten.
I think it’s very unlikely there has been any significant movement in sentiment during the campaign, although we only have the early polls exit polling from the Courier Mail to go on.
The campaign looks very different depending on where you are in Queensland. We’ve consistently had a swing to the left and Greens in inner city Brisbane, although maybe the ALP has stemmed this a bit in recent months. And then a sharp swing right everywhere else. Some of what appears popular in Brisbane is actually dreadfully unpopular in the rest of the state. Many of the “cost of living” measures the government has announced aren’t very popular mining areas in regional Queensland, as ultimately they are being paid for out of mining royalties and the priority for most people in those seats is to see a larger portion of the royalties revenue reinvested in the communities that generated them.
Yes Mr Bowe Gair’s misdeeds do not include a conviction according to Wikipedia but he was run out of Ireland because of his appalling behaviour. My recollection at the time from discussions held within my extended family was about his criminal behaviour and about the rumours about his behaviour which circulated widely in Brisbane. I apologise for stating there was a conviction, but I genuinely believed that there had been in Ireland. Assaults on women and children are very serious and too many get away with them.
davidwh 8.17pm
Again I refer you to 2016 UK referendum. Any movement in the closing days/hours was TOWARDS ‘Remain’ rather than any tightening that might have indicated ‘something’ was happening.
This was of course quite a unique event, and I give no prediction of the outcome in Queensland, but the betting companies had no idea what was happening ‘on the ground’, in fact what had probably been there for some time in that case.
Gabrielle
There is quite a detailed PhD thesis on Vince Gair available on line. There is no reference to any charging or conviction, including from the Irish sources consulted.
However there is reference to a long history of Gair harassing and perhaps even assaulting young women in offices. It seems the Irish government suggested his behaviour was unsuitable and asked the Australian government to get him to leave.
https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au/server/api/core/bitstreams/fc2fa935-b23e-5203-a131-5c1714e4f78b/content
BT I understand what you are saying. However the QLD election pool would be very small compared to Brexit. It wouldn’t take many people aware of internal polling to make the betting markets change. Other than Pumicestone which came in from $3.20 to $2.90 there had been very little other movement.
I agree betting markets are poor indicators but any movement to around 50/50 should show up in the betting markets.
BTsays at 6:19: I will leave it there too. Thank you for engaging and for your honest advocacy for your beliefs. It is clearly confected anecdata that frustrates me, and I did not intend to accuse you personally of that, but on rereading today’s posts you may reasonably have felt so.
YouGov up on Courier Mail. 55:45. Pretty static. Pretty detailed by regionality. I think the ALP would be happy looking at this that they are fending off the Greens in inner metropolitan areas.
Not much change there. Is Mavis in Pumicestone yet?
The Wombat thought there must have been a poll out as the C-M has a few teaser articles out that I can’t access. Apparently youngsters like Miles, Crisafulli had failed to cut through and miles needed a few more months.
davidwh 9.47
Makes sense, thanks.
Warrigal 12.00
Thanks for your respectful posts.
P.S. I didn’t think you were accusing me of anything.
Warrigal I haven’t run into Mavis yet.
Studied the polling it is looking good for the LNP but they have to be careful in the last week not to make a major mistake. It is like other polling looking good for Labor near Brisbane but the further away the worst it looks except maybe around Cairns going by the exit poll. The exit polls early in the week probably showed older voters polling habits. Also the Greens should be worried as they need to poll higher in order to keep their seats or win more seats in inner Brisbane. Youth vote was always going to favor the left with the older vote coming back to LNP after Covid.
Confused why the LNP have run such a small target campaign. Get the feeling they do not have many policies except crime whereas Labor are throwing quite a few they might not be good but at least they have some. LNP probably looking at the NT election and trying to copy the CLP playbook.
Courier Mail: “An exclusive Courier-Mail poll reveals Steven Miles has pulled off a miracle comeback in the battle as preferred premier, but it appears unlikely to save Labor from a wipe-out on October 26.”
I don’t have access to the full article.
Also from Courier Mail: “More than half of Queensland’s young voters have rallied behind Steven Miles as their preferred premier, saying his prolific social media use and cost of living measures have helped win them over”.
I don’t read the courier but a paywalled story reports Miles is now virtually level with Crisifulli on preferred Premier ratings. This is a huge turnaround from just two months ago when Miles was 11 points behind. Obviously this hasn’t translated into a dead heat in the polls but it feels like there has been an improvement for Labor and that Miles ” smiling man” appeal is paying dividends. I noticed a headline ( behind the paywall) in the courier lamenting that their man Crisifulli was not cutting through. The headline in the courier said Labor is still about to take a big loss but if the latest reproductive rights gaffe by an LNP candidate gives even more voters cold feet and Miles happy go lucky appeal starts to translate into votes especially in SEQ this could get even a little bit closer over the next week?
Fargo leader ratings are now Crisafulli 37% and Miles 36%. LNP leading 55/45. Labor vote holding up in Brisbane but not outside Brisbane.
nadia88says:
Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 12:48 pm
………………………….
I’m confident of a state based YouGov coming soon.
Hopefully we have an election eve Newspoll (ie: evening of Fri 25-Oct).
I’ll keep an eye out for polling and drop the links.
======================================================================
nadia88 mentioned upthread that we’d have a state based YouGov, which it appears to have turned up in the courier. Nadia (or WB) – could you log on pls and provide the primaries. I can’t possibly believe Miles is now 1 pt behind Chrisafulli. Nothing on KB’s site.
Edit: Thanks davidwh.
If you Google courier Mail you can pry a bit of information from their various headlines. Can’t get primary numbers.
Thankyou davidwh
Just got back from the newsagents.
Looks like LNP 41
ALP 31
ONP 11
Grns 11
2PP 55-45 LNP in the lead
and the smaple is 1503 voters, which I think this site regards as a fairly decent sample
Thanks paulA
Just reading into the article regarding the “Preferred Premier” numbers.
Overall Chrisafulli leads 37-36%.
Chrisafulli has a taken a 9 pt drop since the courier mail’s last poll.
Inner City (of Brisbane) – Prefers Miles over Chrisafulli 60 – 23 %
Outer Sbs – Chrisafulli takes to lead 35 – 34 %
Regional & Rural – Chrisafulli leads low 40’s to 31.
Also, Greens vote in the inner city is at a staggering 22%. I gather this means more Greens in the QLD state parliament, as upthread posters have already said.
Looks like Brisbane is becoming a Green zone. 22% would be staggering.
The ALP primary vote is now 31 which is a five point improvement from the YouGov poll in July . Miles is also neck and neck in the preferred Premier numbers.Thats pretty remarkable in the course of an election. For context Cando Newman was way in front of Bligh at this point in 2012. It seems like. Qlders are warming to Miles and his sunny persona and going cold on Crisifulli and the doom and gloom crime&punishment program. For the record I cannot see any sort of path toward an ALP win and this improvement could go sour, but the trend is your friend and I can feel this abortion stuff shifting votes toward Labor. If the LNP win is not as emphatic as has been predicted throughout the course of this year, it may well bode badly for the incoming LNP government especially considering their raison d’etre is crime& punishment which will be impossible to reduce to the level of expectations. They really don’t have a mandate for those signature LNP policies- conservative social reforms, asset sales,public service cuts, austerity because they’ve not argued the case for these LNP ideological positions.
You shouldn’t be staggered by that, they got 23% in the BCC election, so sounds like their support is more or less the same as it was in April.
I’m hopeful that Greens prefs will flow more strongly to Labor than usual given the abortion issue and the fact that Crisafulli wants to get rid of CPV which you assume Greens voters want to keep. But what do I know.
I don’t think YouGov has previously had regional breakdowns, I’m only aware of RedBridge, but I think what you are mostly seeing is a shift to the left in inner metropolitan areas. When incorporated into statewide numbers, this looks like the ALP is doing better, and i would have thought this polling suggests the
ALP is holding off the Greens in the inner city. But the ALP and Greens fighting it out in the inner city won’t change the statewide result. It will just mean either a Green or ALP MP or two swapping sitting on the opposition side of the house.
Inner metropolitan Queensland is less than a quarter of the population and most of those seats are already held by the ALP or Greens. Outer metropolitan, coastal, regional (and rural, but no surprises there), the ALP is getting absolutely smashed, and these are the seats that will determine the outcome of the election. I think maybe the ALP primary vote may have ticked up very slightly in regional areas vs RedBridge, I can’t remember, and the regional breakdown is different between the two polls.