Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

DemosAU: 59-41 to Labor in New South Wales

A New South Wales state poll tells a familiar story of Labor well on top in two-party terms, but with One Nation support at historic heights.

A new poll by DemosAU finds state Labor in New South Wales, which appeared to be struggling in the polls until at least up to the May federal election, recording a blowout two-party lead of 59-41, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 30% and Greens 13%. Various demographic breakdowns are featured in the full report. Chris Minns holds a 44-25 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier. As in the Queensland poll earlier this week, the poll finds cost of living and housing affordability by far the most salient issues. We are also treated to a result on upper house voting intention which has One Nation at a formidable 15%, with Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 21% and the Greens on 13%. The poll was conducted October 16 to 22 from a sample of 1016.

Also on the NSW state politics front:

• The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Mark Hodges, the Liberal member for Castle Hill, faces as many as three preselection challengers, among them Peter Gangemi, former Hills Shire mayor. Columnist James O’Doherty cites “faction bosses” saying Hodges “was never going to be around long-term”, having emerged as the sole preselection nominee ahead of the 2023 election after the party’s candidate vetting committee blocked presumed front-runner Noel McCoy.

• Also courtesy of The Sauce, talk of two further challenges against sitting Liberals: Miranda MP Eleni Petinos faces former federal Hughes MP Jenny Ware, a circumstance Petinos reportedly blames on deputy leader Natalie Ward; and an unspecified challenger has emerged to North Shore MP Felicity Wilson, who survived by one vote against a challenge in 2018 from now Willoughby MP Tim James.

• In a report on Local Government Minister Ron Hoenig’s alleged involvement in an Office of Local Government inquiry process to aid the council preselection of former Bayside mayor Bill Saravinovski, Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald relates expectations Steve Kamper will retire from his seat of Rockdale at the next election and be succeeded by his chief-of-staff, current Bayside mayor Ed McDougall.

Miscellany: housing and Queensland polls (open thread)

Pre-election federal polling and a recent state poll from Queensland suggest few are happy with anyone on housing policy.

Nothing to relate over the past week in the way of federal polling, but past time nonetheless for a new post. We do have, courtesy of the Macquarie University Housing and Urban Research Centre, a deep dive into attitudes towards housing policy from before the May election, drawn from the Australian Cooperative Election Survey conducted by Accent Research. It finds only 16% were satisfied with the Albanese government’s housing policies, with 34% dissatisfied and 32% neither, although the high level of consistency of these results by age group, housing tenure and property investment status suggests the dissatisfaction takes on a variety of forms. On the causes of the problem, the report offers the perhaps unsurprising finding that “older and right-leaning voters” blame immigration, while “younger and progressive voters identify high interest rates, high prices and low wages”.

DemosAU does have a state poll for Queensland, which comes too soon after last week’s Resolve Strategic and RedBridge Group polls to get its own post (on a semi-related point: still no date for the Hinchinbrook by-election). In contrast to those two, it finds David Crisafulli’s Liberal National Party government well on top, despite a surge to One Nation at the expense of both major parties. The LNP has a two-party lead of 54-46, essentially the same as the 54.2-45.8 election result last year, from primary votes of LNP 37% (down by 4.5%), Labor 29% (down by 3.6%), Greens 12% (up by 2.1%) and One Nation 14% (up by 6.0%). Crisafulli leads Steven Miles 44-23 on preferred premier. Further questions find the government highly rated for handling of the Olympics but rather a lot less so for housing and cost-of-living, which also register as the two most salient issues facing the state. Extensive demographic breakdowns are available in the full report. The poll was conducted October 13 to 20 from a sample of 1006.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Had I held back a few hours I would have had a new poll from Essential Research to lead with: it has Labor up a point to 36% and the Coalition down one to 26%, and the ongoing One Nation surge pushing them well clear of the Greens, respectively up two to 15% and down two to 9%, with a steady 6% undecided. Labor holds a 50-44 lead on the 2PP+ measure, in from 51-44. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 45% and down two on disapproval to 44%, while Sussan Ley is steady on 32% and up two to 43%.

A question on who should lead the Liberal Party produces indecisive results, with 42% professing themselves unsure and 12% favouring “somebody else” over six designated options: 13% for Sussan Ley, 10% for Andrew Hastie, 10% for Jacinta Namatjira Price, 7% for Angus Taylor, 4% for Allegra Spender and 3% for Tim Wilson. Forty-eight per cent felt the party should adopt more progressive positions, 24% more conservative.

Albanese’s meeting with Donald Trump was rated good for Australia’s long-term interests by 37%, bad by 18% and indifferent by 26%. Support for net zero by 2050 is at 44% with 27% opposed, and a monthly national mood reading improves a bit after a sharp downturn last time, with right direction up a point to 35% and wrong track down four to 46%. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1041.

DemosAU: 66-34 to Labor in South Australia

Another poll finding Labor heading for a win of historic proportions in South Australia, including yet more evidence for a rising One Nation tide.

A DemosAU/Ace Strategies poll for InDaily on South Australian state voting intention all but matches the last published poll from the state in crediting Labor with a 66-34 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 47%, Liberal 21% and Greens 13%. This compares with 2022 election results of 54.4-45.6 in favour of Labor on two-party preferred, and primary votes of Labor 40.0%, Liberal 35.7% and Greens 9.1%. The poll finds Peter Malinauskas leading Vincent Tarzia for preferred premier by 58-19. Malinauskas is rated positively by 49%, neutrally by 37% and negatively by 14%, while Vincent Tarzia scores 15% positive, 55% neutral and 30% negative. Ratings are also provided for Labor members Kyam Maher and Chris Picton, and Liberals Ashton Hurn and Ben Hood.

The full report also features a Legislative Council voting intention result that has something the main result lacks in the shape of a result for One Nation, who are on a striking 12%, shading the Greens on 11%, with Labor on 37% and Liberal on 17%. Barely registering are former One Nation member Sarah Game and former Liberal member Jing Lee, whose Fair Go for Australians and Better Community parties are respectively 1% and statistically insignificant. The poll was conducted October 6 to 15 from a sample of 1006.

Some further Labor preselection news to relate since the last post here on South Australia a month ago:

• The previous episode related the surprise retirement announcements of Deputy Premier Susan Close and Treasurer Stephen Mullighan, respectively creating Labor preselection vacancies in Port Adelaide and Lee. The party has wasted little time in anointing their successors: the new candidate for Lee is David Wilkins, Port Adelaide Enfield councillor and chief-of-staff to Health Minister Chris Picton, while Port Adelaide will be contested by Cheyne Rich, deputy chief-of-staff to Peter Malinauskas.

• Labor wasted even less time preselecting new candidates for Elizabeth and Torrens, whose respective members Lee Odenwalder and Dana Wortley both announced their retirements a fortnight ago. Elizabeth will be contested by Ella Shaw, a campaign organiser at Labor’s head office; Torrens by Meagan Spencer, chief-of-staff to Primary Industries Minister Clare Scriven.

Morgan: 57-43 to Labor (open thread)

Another poll with the Coalition down and One Nation up, plus a new survey on Australians’ attitudes to the US alliance.

Roy Morgan has its monthly poll on voting intention, showing Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred increasing from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Primary votes tell a familiar story of movement from the Coalition, who are down three to 27%, to One Nation, who are up two-and-a-half to 12%, while Labor and the Greens are both up a point, to 35% and 13% respectively. The two-party result using previous election preferences also moves from 55.5-44.5 in Labor’s favour to 57-43. The accompanying report has two-party breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort. The poll was conducted September 22 to October 19 from a sample of 4908.

Also of note is United States Studies Centre’s YouGov poll on attitudes to the United States conducted August 7 to 20 from a sample of 1070. It finds 16% rating that Trump’s second term as good for Australia, compared with 24% who felt it would be before the event. Since last year, there have been double-digit movements for the worse on both directions on questions including whether the United States is mostly helpful in Asia (25% yes, 33% no), and whether it makes Australia more secure (42% yes, 55% no). Despite that, the view that Australia should withdraw from the alliance is actually down nine points to 17%, with 54% wanting it to remain. The poll was conducted August 7 to 20 from a sample of 1070.

Nine Newspapers also had Resolve Strategic results on Monday that found 36% supportive and 30% opposed to hosting nuclear submarines at HMAS Stirling in Perth from 2027, and 32% supportive and 31% opposed to offering the US a special deal on mineral resource exports.

Queensland: polls, Hinchinbrook by-election and redistribution latest

Two polls suggest the Crisafulli government is floundering a year after coming to office, as a by-election and redistribution loom.

A few things to report from the Sunshine State:

• The Brisbane Times has a result from the Queensland components of the last two monthly national Resolve Strategic polls, with a sample of 868. This has statewide primary votes of LNP 33%, down one from the July-August period; Labor steady at 32%; Greens steady at 10%; and One Nation up one to 9%. This compares with election results of LNP 41.5%, Labor 32.6%, Greens 9.9% and One Nation 8.0%, and would pan out to around 51.5-48.5 in favour of Labor with typical preference flows, compared with 53.8-46.2 to the LNP at the election (though that game may change somewhat if the government abolishes compulsory preferential voting as promised). David Crisafulli scores a net likeability rating of plus 17, down three from the previous survey period, while Steven Miles is at minus two, down one. Crisafulli holds a 39-22 lead as preferred premier, out from 40-25.

• The Courier-Mail reports a RedBridge Group-Accent Research poll targeting only south-east Queensland credits Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, compared with what RedBridge calculates as a result of 50.3-49.7 in favour of the LNP across the corresponding area at the election held a year ago. A graphic in the print edition says the primary votes are 35% each for the LNP and Labor, 13% for the Greens and 11% for One Nation, though the accompanying report says the LNP are actually on 36%. I believe I can infer the corresponding results from the election were LNP 40.4%, Labor 35.9%, Greens 12.1% and One Nation 6.1%. The sample was 1013, but the only indication of the field work period is that it was before the government’s “energy road map” was unveiled last week.

• There is still no date for the by-election for the North Queensland seat of Hinchinbrook, which will be held due to Katter Australian Party member Nick Dametto’s plan to run for the mayor of Townsville. The LNP has confirmed a candidate in Wayde Chiesa, former regional chief executive of Regional Development Australia, described today by The Australian as the “hand-picked” candidate of David Crisafulli. The report also relates Crisafulli appointed Chiesa chief financial officer for a training firm of which he was sole director from December 2015 to April 2016, which collapsed two months after Crisafulli’s departure owing creditors $3 million. Dametto’s successor as KAP candidate will be former Townsville deputy mayor Mark Molachino, whom the LNP has been keen to point out was an ALP member from 2017 to 2024 – which Rob Katter reckons to be sour grapes because Molachino allegedly rejected the LNP’s own overtures. Labor’s candidate remains to be announced, but Steven Miles confirmed last week there would be one.

• A redistribution to update electoral boundaries that have been in place at the 2017, 2020 and 2024 elections is under way, but all the Redistribution Commission will give away about the publication of proposed boundaries is that it will be “early 2026”. The submissions have been published: as well as advocating a return to purely geographic seat names, the LNP is calling for the abolition of the rural seat of Hill, held for Katter’s Australian Party by Shane Knuth, and the inner urban seat of Toohey, held for Labor by Peter Russo, to accommodate new seats in Ipswich and Caboolture. The Greens concur on the latter point, but want the scrapped seats to be Toohey’s southern neighbour Stretton, held for Labor by James Martin, and the Townsville seat of Thuringowa, held for the LNP by Natalie Marr. Labor agrees on the need for a new seat in Caboolture but makes no suggestion as to what should be abolished.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 30, Coalition 33, Greens 12 in Victoria

A new poll suggests a big none-of-the-above vote represents a wildcard for next year’s Victorian state election.

The Age reports the bi-monthly reading of state voting intention in Victoria from Resolve Strategic has Labor down two points to 30%, the Coalition steady at 33% and the Greens steady at 12%. Despite the accompanying report’s prognostications of doom for the Liberal Party, this in fact points to a tight result on two-party preferred, though a great deal would depend on the composition and preference flows of an imposing 25% vote for other parties and independents. Brad Battin’s lead over Jacinta Allan as preferred premier has narrowed from 32-24 to 33-27.

Further questions relate to “personal safety and trust in law”, with 53% reporting they feel safe walking around their local area with 28% disagreeing, 63% reporting feeling safe in their own home and 24% disagreeing, but only 31% expressing faith in courts and the justice system with 50% disagreeing. The poll combines the Victorian results from the last two national Resolve Strategic monthly surveys.

UPDATE: Saturday’s Financial Review has a further finding from RedBridge Group that Labor leads 52-48, unchanged from the previous result in September, from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 37% (down one) and Greens 13% (steady). The accompanying paywalled report has breakdowns by generation, region and gender. The poll was conducted October 8 to 14 from a sample of 1501.

Developments relevant to the election to be held in November next year:

• Alex White of the Herald Sun today reports that Amelia Hamer, who was narrowly unsuccessful in her bid to recover Kooyong for the Liberals from teal independent Monique Ryan at the May federal election, will seek preselection in Malvern. The incumbent, former party leader Michael O’Brien, announced in September that he would retire at the election. The report says the preselection will also be contested by Jacqueline Blackwell, chair of the Liberal Women’s Council, but makes no mention of commercial litigator and barrister Lana Collaris, whom The Age reported had confirmed her intention to run last month.

• Chip Le Grand of The Age reports local lawyer Grant Hutchinson has emerged as the “leading conservative candidate” for the Liberal preselection in Croydon, where sitting member David Hodgett announced his retirement in August. In Rowville, which will be vacated with the retirement of Kim Wells, the “early front-runner” is said to be Irene Ling, a fundraiser for Southern Cross Kids Camps, who has the support of conservative former federal Deakin MP Michael Sukkar. However, Tahnee Wells, 28-year-old project co-ordinator at the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and daughter of Kim Wells, is a “potential wildcard”.

• Two Labor retirement announces a fortnight ago: Emma Vulin, who was diagnosed with motor neurone disease in 2024, in Pakenham; and Jordan Crugnale, who since 2018 has had a precarious hold on the seat of Bass.

• Anthony Galloway of The Australian reported last week the Liberals were considering given the Nationals a clear run against Jacinta Allan in her seat of Bendigo East, which would make sense given the Nationals’ remarkable near-success in the federal seat of Bendigo at the May federal election.

• The Herald Sun’s Backroom Baz column notes that no incumbent Liberals face preselection challenges, positing that “perhaps the new $5000 fee to nominate proved a hurdle too high for some”.

Resolve Strategic: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

The monthly poll from Resolve Strategic records a slump for Sussan Ley, but little change on voting intention.

Nine Newspapers brings the latest monthly poll from Resolve Strategic, showing no change to Labor’s two-party lead of 55-45. Primary votes are Labor 34% (down one), Coalition 28% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 12% (steady). By far the biggest movements are negative ones for Sussan Ley, who is down eight on approval (very good plus good on performance in recent weeks) to 33% and up six on disapproval to 38%. Anthony Albanese also goes backwards, by three points to 41% on approval and two to 47%, but his lead on preferred prime minister has widened from 38-26 to 40-23. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1800, and should be followed over the coming days by a state result from Victoria.

RedBridge Group: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

A new poll finds Labor remaining dominant over the Coalition as One Nation surges still further.

The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll giving Labor a lead of 54-46, out from 53.5-46.5 at the last such poll a month ago, from primary votes of Labor 34% (down one), Coalition 29% (down one), Greens 11% (steady), and a surging One Nation on 14% (up three). The accompanying report reveals One Nation is at 13% among millennials, 15% among Gen-X and 17% among baby boomers – I hope to have more to offer in the way of demographic breakdowns later today.

The poll also finds an 37% for and against the notion that the Coalition should drop its support for net zero; 35% holding that the Albanese government has the right priorities, with 47% disagreeing; and 16% holding that Sussan Ley’s Coalition is ready for government, with 55% disagreeing. It was conducted September 25 to October 7 from a sample of 1997.

UPDATE: Full results here – unfortunately not including any state breakdowns on this occasion, but together with the One Nation age breakdowns cited above, we learn that its support among the youngest cohort (“Gen-Z”, presumably meaning 18-34) is well below the others at 6%.

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