Easter miscellany: hate speech polling and Liberal preselections latest (open thread)

Five federal Liberal preselection sorted, a vacancy opened, and a change in the party balance of the Senate.

A lean period of polling awaits, given the interruption of Easter and the no doubt related fact that every single pollster in the business unloaded results last week. If you’re desperate, Nine Newspapers has further results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll finding 56% support for “stronger laws to ban hate speech on the basis of religion and faith”, with 19% opposed; 74% in favour of criminal penalties for “doxxing”, with 4% opposed; and 57% saying there had been a rise in racism and religious intolerance “as a result of the Israel-Gaza conflit”, with 15% disagreeing.

Other news:

Troy Dodds of the Western Weekender reports that Melissa McIntosh, the Liberal member for the marginal outer western Sydney seat of Lindsay, has secured preselection after the withdrawal of Penrith deputy mayor Mark Davies. The expectation that Davies would have the numbers in conservative-dominated local branches to topple McIntosh had been a source of consternation among the party leadership, with Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald reporting earlier this month on “the prospect of a rare federal division intervention in the NSW branch” if the challenge went ahead. McIntosh was promoted from the shadow assistant ministry to outer shadow ministry status in a recent reshuffle.

• Tim Wilson won a Liberal preselection vote for Goldstein last week, setting up a rematch with teal independent Zoe Daniel, to whom he lost the seat he had held since 2016 in 2022. Wilson won the local party vote ahead of Colleen Harkin, research fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs, and Stephanie Hunt, lawyer and former staffer to Julie Bishop and Marise Payne. Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Wilson won a second round vote ahead of Harkin “by about 160-130”.

• Amelia Hamer, a former staffer to then Financial Services Minister Jane Hume who has more recently worked for financial technology start-up Airwallex, has won the Liberal preselection vote for the Melbourne seat of Kooyong, which teal independent Monique Ryan won from Josh Frydenberg in 2022. The Australian reports Hamer won the party vote by 233 to 59 ahead of Rochelle Pattison, director of an asset management and corporate finance firm and chair of Transgender Victoria.

• Former state government minister Andrew Constance has again won Liberal preselection for Gilmore, where he narrowly failed in a bid to unseat Labor’s Fiona Phillips in 2022. Constance won a party vote by 80 to 69 over Paul Ell, lawyer, Shoalhaven councillor and long-standing hopeful for the seat who was persuaded to stand aside in favour of Constance in 2022.

The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports that Margaret Forrest, a commercial and criminal law barrister, has been preselected as the Liberal National Party candidate for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, which the party lost to Elizabeth Watson-Brown of the Greens in 2022.

• Rowan Ramsey, who has held the regional South Australian seat of Grey for the Liberals since 2007, has announced he will retire at the next election.

• Tammy Tyrell, who won a second Senate seat for the Jacqui Lambie Network at the 2022 election, quit the party last week. Tyrell issued a statement saying the move was made on Lambie’s suggestion, saying it had “become clear to me that I no longer have the confidence” of the party.

• I have a page up for the Cook federal by-election, to be held on April 13.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

293 comments on “Easter miscellany: hate speech polling and Liberal preselections latest (open thread)”

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  1. Steve

    “ Scotty quoted by C@t @6:46. “Humility keeps you real’: Scott Morrison tells podcast he was always wary of power’”

    Morrison’s cynical nature is best demonstrated by his recent statements on China and Australia. His remarks seem timed and designed to undermine the thaw between Australia and China. Perhaps he hopes to torpedo the visit by the Chinese Premier?

    He hasn’t been getting Cabinet briefings for two years. He is pushing his own profile, not expertise. Its farcical, but I think Morrison wants to style himself post politics as an international security expert linked to AUKUS.

  2. ‘Dandy Murray says:
    Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 8:44 pm

    BW re cronus. Thanks, though unsettling.

    Hoping for his return one day.’
    Yep. One of the high quality posters.

  3. Irene @ #220 Sunday, March 31st, 2024 – 6:54 pm

    Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 6:46 pm
    Like I have said many times before, Scott Morrison is delusional, or evil, or both:


    At last. You agree with me. That Labor supported a delusional and evil man who produced the AUKUS and cruel asylum seekers detention policy.
    Shows how easily Labor is fooled by any Liberal.

    Must follow their policies. If voters want those policies they will vote Liberal or National.
    Not Labor.

    Give the dog a bone, Irene! Don’t try and twist every little thing into, I’m Irene and I’m always right about how bad Labor are! And it’s because they’re just the same as the Coalition.

    Hint: They’re not.

  4. I’ve looked for the post wrt Cronus but cannot find it. Am I correct to speculate that he’s not been around because his parent with Alzheimer’s has deteriorated?

  5. He hasn’t been getting Cabinet briefings for two years. He is pushing his own profile, not expertise.

    My own view is that these ‘drops’ appear to be an attempt by SfM to rehabilitate himself in the eyes of the public now that he’s left parliament.

  6. Confessions @ #256 Sunday, March 31st, 2024 – 8:56 pm

    He hasn’t been getting Cabinet briefings for two years. He is pushing his own profile, not expertise.

    My own view is that these ‘drops’ appear to be an attempt by SfM to rehabilitate himself in the eyes of the public now that he’s left parliament.

    Scotty from Marketing is simply retailing his new image and rewriting the history about his political life, that we are all well aware of, but that he hopes we’ll forget if he bombards us enough times with the new one. It’s what he does. Onwards Christian Soldier to the new ‘Elder Statesman’ image.

  7. @Kirsdarke:
    I’m saying the Marriage Contract is Null & Void before the Parties even sign it, due to the Family Law Act.

    It’s not Rocket Science, why would anyone of sound mind enter into a Contract which has no Penalty for defectors?

  8. Lol. I didn’t need to get married for my partner to remain faithful to me for 30 years, until he died. And vice versa. Otherwise, it’s just Friends with Benefits with no strings attached. And it certainly has nothing to do with any bleeding law! It’s about believing in fidelity as the ultimate sign of your commitment to each other.

  9. I’m sorry for my previous posted comment about Cronus, which I have deleted. According to my initial google search, it seemed like his last post was in August 2023, but then I saw him posting in October and decided that google search is not reliable enough for this sort of thing. Which is ironic because this is exactly the sort of thing Google was supposed to be designed for.

    But I do remain worried for him since he does seem to be located in Ukraine at the moment.

  10. @gympie

    Nice to see you admit you don’t care about basic human norms established for the past few thousand years that it’s actually a bad thing that if a couple get married at a wedding it’s pretty much expected that they don’t go out and screw other people against the permission of their spouse without moral and social consequences.

    I mean yeah there’s people like Henry VIII that did it regularly, but he got away with it because he could execute anyone who called him out on that.

  11. An interesting development in the Lehrmann/10/Wilkinson saga has just occurred:

    Network Ten is seeking to call fresh evidence about Bruce Lehrmann in a bombshell manoeuvre just days before a judge is due to deliver his decision in the former federal Liberal staffer’s high-stakes defamation case.

    Federal Court Justice Michael Lee was expected to hand down his decision in the multimillion-dollar case against Ten and high-profile presenter Lisa Wilkinson on Thursday.

    The judge had adjourned the case in December following a month-long trial. Lee will hear an urgent application by Ten to reopen its case at 5pm on Tuesday.

    Easter Sunday application
    In an application dated March 31, Easter Sunday, and released by the Federal Court on the same day, Ten applied for “leave to reopen [its] case for the purpose of adducing fresh evidence” and “such further and other orders as the court deems fit or thinks necessary”.

    The nature of the fresh evidence is not known, but the application follows a series of reports about the circumstances in which the Seven Network secured an exclusive interview with Lehrmann, aired in two parts on its Spotlight program.

    Samantha Maiden, the political editor at news.com.au, reported on March 21 that “two Thai masseuses were booked, one for Mr Lehrmann and another for a Seven employee” in the early hours of Saturday, November 26, 2022.

    The story prompted Lehrmann to issue a statement describing this allegation as “an untrue and bizarre story from a disgruntled ex-Network Seven producer”.

    “Network Seven [has] only ever covered reasonable travel for filming and accommodation.”

    In response, Taylor Auerbach, a former producer on Spotlight, threatened to sue Lehrmann over this statement.

    Auerbach sent a concerns notice, the first step in initiating defamation proceedings, to Lehrmann on Wednesday.

    A concerns notice allows a party accused of making a defamatory comment to take remedial action before proceedings are filed.

    Auerbach’s solicitor, Rebekah Giles, said in the concerns notice that Lehrmann’s press statement conveyed a defamatory imputation that “Taylor Auerbach lied to the press about Bruce Lehrmann being bought a massage by a Seven Network employee.”

    Lehrmann was approached for comment via his solicitor.


  12. Holden Hillbilly (from earlier)

    “ The Inland Rail project between Melbourne and Brisbane has stalled with just 17 per cent complete, and insiders say it is unlikely it will ever reach the end of the line.
    Political infighting, poor planning and governance, and increasing delays to environmental approvals have significantly reduced the scope of the transformative nation-building project, while simultaneously blowing out the cost from $9.3bn to $31.4bn.
    There are no guarantees the line will even cross into Queensland, with the $14.6bn in confirmed funding now restricted to south of the border.”

    This was never a transformative nation-building project. Funding was approved without any business case proving it was justified. (Same problem with WestConnex and Rozelle interchange). Political infighting had nothing to do with it.

    Inland Rail was a political promise born of wishful thinking and the desire by Barnaby Joyce to spend money in certain rural electorates, including his own.

    Some individual sections of Inland Rail probably were justifiable, but I have never seen proof the overall concept was. Who wants to take freight from Melbourne to Brisbane? Both are destination ports.

  13. Nice big article on how the Inland Railway is such a bad idea in its current form as one of Barnaby Joyce’s brainfart projects.


    I would be open to a Melbourne-Brisbane inland rail corridor for the sake of logistics, but not on this ridiculous project which seems to involve a lot of cronyism, much like the SA Railways of the late 1800’s turned out to be.

  14. dr D

    Lehrmann had denied some allegations in relation to Thai massages. The bloke who was there at the time seems to have a different recollection.
    Maybe 10 wants draw more attention to his credibility. Or lack thereof.

  15. So, Tim Tszyu fought 12 bloody rounds against the Towering Inferno, and lost. So much pride. So much dignity.

    ‘Have you heard that it was good to gain the day?
    I also say it is good to fall, battles are lost in the same spirit in which they are won.

    I beat and pound for the dead,
    I blow through my embouchures my loudest and gayest for them.

    Vivas to those who have fail’d!
    And to those whose war-vessels sank in the sea!
    And to those themselves who sank in the sea!
    And to all generals that lost engagements, and all overcome heroes!
    And the numberless unknown heroes equal to the greatest heroes known!’

    Walt Whitman

  16. Rossmcg at 9.41 pm

    If that is all N 10 are doing it will hardly impress Lee J. It was more or less obvious, not just by the end of the hearing but well before then, that Lehrmann’s credibility was very doubtful. E.g. the UK lip-reading witness about what happened at the bar, among many examples. If the basis for the N 10 application is a story by S. Maiden 10 days ago, it is odd that the application was not made over a week ago. Time will tell.

  17. Regarding Lehrmann, weren’t both parties at one stage asked to detail the financial benefits and assistance they had received?

    If Lehrmann made a false statement excluding details of some benefits would that damage his case? I don’t know I’m not a lawyer.

    IIRC Seven were pretty slow to admit the whole rental deal.

  18. Dr Doolittlesays:
    Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 9:56 pm
    Rossmcg at 9.41 pm

    If that is all N 10 are doing it will hardly impress Lee J. It was more or less obvious, not just by the end of the hearing but well before then, that Lehrmann’s credibility was very doubtful. E.g. the UK lip-reading witness about what happened at the bar, among many examples. If the basis for the N 10 application is a story by S. Maiden 10 days ago, it is odd that the application was not made over a week ago. Time will tell.

    If S. Maiden story is part of the basis of Channel 10 application. One possible reason is they didn’t have the evidence to back the story till now?. Possibly the Channel 7 reporter involved has provided evidence that proves his side of story is true?. Like a phone video, stat. dec. by the masseuses involved etc.

  19. Dr Doolittle

    Last night after I departed you made a comment about my statement on Soviet economic exploitation of eastern Europe. You said it was an opinion and quoted a Rand report to the contrary. Was this the report you referred to?

    If so I note it is dated in the early 1980s. So I have a few points in reply.
    – first there was some Soviet financial support to WP countries in the 1980s, but that does not change the thirty years of Soviet exploitation of WP up to 1975.
    – second there were many other ways the WP countries were obliged to structurally support the Soviet economy.
    – the Soviets insisted on WWI style “reparations” from WP countries (and Finland) for war damage to the Soviet Union. This impoverished their economies for the first two decades after WWII.
    – the Soviet style economic organisation forced on the WP countries saw them develop far more slowly than western Europe in the post war period.

    So in summary we can have differing opinions, but I’m sticking to my opinion on this one. Whether by deliberate exploitation (1940s to 70s) or legacy of misguided policy (1980s) the Soviet impact was not beneficial on the WP.

  20. Good. Those people have extensive criminal records and are of rotten character,
    and should be deported back to their country of origin as should any natural-born Australian
    citizen overseas who have done the same 😡

  21. Yep Newspoll says the west Aussie tonight shows support for the labor government in WA had plummeted to 49 with libs now 51 two party preferred.
    Down 6 percent in WA since last election and it states also that labor would lose its majority in the west.Quarterly analysis.
    Maybe the homeless people day and night around Perth at intersections holding up housing wanted cardboard signs and tents and cars where west Aussies are now living may play a role etcetc etc
    McGowan going has played a role.The Voice,broken promises on tax downside for fifo high earners and sheep export also.
    Stokes headline is -support plummets for Albanese labor gov in WA.

    Hmmm IR laws another reason?Wise to turn a Nat media tycoon against you ?

  22. Pied pipersays:
    Sunday, March 31, 2024 at 10:46 pm
    Yep Newspoll says the west Aussie tonight shows support for the labor government in WA had plummeted to 49 with libs now 51 two party preferred.

    But what’s the iron ore price?.

  23. It’s not a new poll, just analyses of old data.

    The Libs have no chance as long as they are owned by the religious right wing loons.

  24. Good on you Piper that you think the Stoke’s take on Newspoll gives you a few happy flutters…
    The is the the gem from the West……………………
    “Nationwide, Mr Albanese’s Labor still holds a “narrow” 52 per cent to 48 per cent lead over the Coalition”…………
    As I have seen from most elections in the past, a win by a political party at 52-48 at a Federal election is usually shouted from the rooftops (especially by the conservative press) as “landslide” territory.
    Where the West gets the word “narrow” from is anyone’s guess but long way to go yet….
    Actually, what the West article is really pumping up is maybe if Labor drops a bit in NSW and maybe if Labor loses two seats in WA then maybe there might be a hung parliament.. Get the drift….?
    Let’s face in the LNP is on the floor and just getting up on the elbows is seen as some kind of improvement…..Not too many (any) contested by-elections have gone the LNP’s way….The coming one in Cooke is meaningless, though if the Liberals can’t scratch up 50% this will be a worry for them…..

  25. I drive my car up the driveway,
    what am I doing?

    I get out of my car
    and one of my five cats walks up to
    me, he is a very fine

    I reach down and touch

    then I feel all right.

    I am exactly what I am supposed to

    Charles Bukowski

  26. I pay $6 a month to play chess with Devon. I play him at least 4 times a day, and sometimes 5 or 6. My usual game of being careful and waiting for my opponent to make a mistake doesn’t work against Devon. Devon never makes mistakes. If I can beat Devon once a day, I am happy. When he wins he always says, “Thank for playing. Want to take another shot?” Maybe subconsciously I don’t want to beat Devon more often. Because then I would have to play Natalie.

  27. Remember when the drooling Liberal droogs, Kool Aid dripping from the corners of their mouths, all thought that the Coalition would come from behind in Newspoll to win the last federal election? 😆

  28. Dai.le is effectively an independent liberal in an area which is normally Labor. She cannot rely on Labor to stuff up their candidate selection.again.

  29. S. Simpson says:
    Tuesday, April 2, 2024 at 9:05 am
    Albanese opting to work with Dutton instead of crossbench: Pocock

    I think that any illusions that Anthony Albanese is a genuine progressive or left winger have well and truly dissipated. The boy from public housing is now member of the elite club and governs compliantly for that elite club. Albo is more comfortable working with Dutton than the progressive crossbench.-


    sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, April 2, 2024 at 9:08 am
    Albo is more comfortable working with Dutton than the progressive crossbench.

    On matters of national security and immigration this may be true, on everything else it is horseshit.


    If you get into bed with the devil, sooner or later he’s going to fuck you.

  30. The horseshoe theory is horse shit, and anyone who believes it either a lying smug centralist or an idiot.

    Did the far right war mongers march along side the far left protesting against the Vietnam war or the Iraq war?

    Do the far left conspire with the far right to create a corporate oligarchy of disgustingly rich planet raping billionaires?

    Do the far right fight alongside the far left for social housing or raising the unemployment benefit to at least the poverty level?

    Does One Nation agree with the Greens that the live animal export trade is filthy lucre being made by soulless people off the backs of suffering animals?

  31. Rex Douglas says:
    Tuesday, April 2, 2024 at 2:21 pm
    Rather than vote for S3, Labor should have abstained (allowing it to pass on L/NP votes) and campaigned on a fairer tax deal that would bring CoL relief to lower income households as well as committing to increased welfare payments that lifted people out of poverty.


    This was either political expediency to gain government, or his first openly act of cowardice, of not being up for a fight.

    Or maybe he doesn’t actually believe in the bullshit he sprouts:

    “No one is left behind because we should always look after the disadvantaged and the vulnerable.”

    As long as you’re a working tax payer.

    Maybe his beliefs are also bullshit:

    ‘Anthony Albanese may be the first federal leader of the Australian Labor Party to hail from the Socialist Left. However, his track record in New South Wales shows that he rose to his current position by collaborating with the party’s right wing to crush genuine ALP socialists.’


  32. S. Simpson says:
    Tuesday, April 2, 2024 at 2:57 pm
    Lordbain, the Australian Jewish Association is a far-right fridge organisation that out of step with mainstream Jewish Australians, and has been called out as such numerous times by members of the Jewish community.


    There are good and people in every race and religion, but your suggestion that “the Australian Jewish Association is a far-right fridge organisation that out of step with mainstream Jewish Australians” is probably not true, going by this poll of American Jews.

    ‘62% of U.S. Jews say the way Israel is carrying out its war in Gaza is acceptable’

    21 March 2024

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