YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

The fifth federal opinion poll of the week is the best of the bunch for Labor.

A busy week of federal polling continued yesterday with a new result from YouGov, which had Labor’s two-party lead out from 51-49 to 52-48, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 36% (down two), Greens 13% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Leadership ratings were not included on this occasion, but there was an Anzac Day-inspired question inviting respondents to choose between assertions that Australia “should be prepared to fight for our country’s values”, favoured by 46%, and that “we should be sceptical of politicians who want to commit troops to wars not necessary to the direct defence of Australia”, favoured by 42%. There was a marked tendency for younger respondents to favour the latter (44% to 34% among the 18-to-24 cohort) and older respondents the former (60% to 34% for those aged 65 and over). The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1514.

Results from a YouGov state poll for Queensland will be published at 2pm today in the Courier-Mail. UPDATE: For now it only offers the finding that 53% would prefer Steven Miles to Annastacia Palaszczuk as Premier and 47% vice-versa. Voting intention evidently to follow tomorrow morning.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,485 comments on “YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 9:22 am

    The Government has accused the EU of double standards after Ireland vowed to send asylum seekers to the UK despite France refusing to take Channel migrants back. The row erupted after senior Irish ministers said they would draft emergency laws to send back refugees who had arrived from the UK to avoid being deported to Rwanda. However, Tory ministers consider the proposal a “non-starter” because they are unable to send asylum seekers who arrive on small boats across the Channel back to France.
    A UK government source said: “We won’t accept any asylum returns from the EU via Ireland until the EU accepts that we can send them back to France. We are fully focused on operationalising our Rwanda scheme, and will continue working with the French to stop the boats from crossing the Channel.”
    Last night, the Daily Mail reported that international students, workers and visitors are claiming asylum in an attempt to remain in the UK by the back door. Figures obtained by the newspaper showed a record 21,525 asylum claims were made by visa holders in the year to March 2023, which represents a 154 per cent annual rise.
    On Monday, the Home Office will start detaining asylum seekers to be deported to Rwanda, with the Government hoping that the first flights will take off in the summer. It comes amid record numbers of migrants crossing the Channel before the end of April, with Home Office figures on Sunday showing the highest total of arrivals by that point to date.’
    —————————-
    I did predict that one of the consequences of Brexit would be refugee trouble along the 500km border between NI and Eire. My general sense of it was that it would require re-policing of the border.
    But I did not think that it would get this complicated.

  2. billie says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 11:29 am
    FUBAR
    I can’t remember whether I read the underlying figures in The Saturday Paper or the Guardian but remote area aborigines are suspended at twice the rate of whites

    Right. No evidence- but is.

    To prove your claim of racism you need to show that the policy deliberate targets the race.

    Do you have evidence that different races with exactly the same default rates are suspended at different rates?

    Don’t bother answering- because you’re making shit up – unless you have actual evidence.

  3. FUBAR
    1. True but this one goes beyond abortion and interferes in obstetric emergencies.
    2. D&M commented last night about Catholic social justice and revolutionary theology, which seemed so promising after Vatican II but haven’t survived Pope Pole.

  4. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 10:01 am
    tl:dr Irene:

    I hate the Albanese government
    ===============================================

    I note her last sourced article is about an event that occurred in 2020. It appears the Albanese Government are now guilty of not inventing a time machine and fixing up child welfare issues that occurred in the past.

  5. More changes at Seven:

    Kerry Stokes’ Seven West Media has appointed the editor of the West Australian, Anthony De Ceglie, to the new role of director of news and current affairs and editor-in-chief, Seven West Media.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/apr/29/australia-news-live-male-violence-online-misogyny-anthony-albanese-women-safety-yoorook-terrorism-attacks

    This is the same editor who wrote this massive puff piece on Gina Rinehart, who subsequently, coincidentally, tipped a truckload of cash into the new Seven West Media outlet ‘The Nightly’.

    https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/western-australian-of-the-year-gina-rinehart-the-single-mum-who-believed-in-herself-and-became-an-aussie-icon-c-10861596

  6. Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 11:40 am

    I haven’t got a dog in fight but blaming JPII is holding a grudge for a long time. Pretty sure the Popes and Cardinals know that if they try and go down the “progressive” path there would be a massive schism in the Church – especially in the fastest growing area of Africa.

  7. The thing about a long papacy is that, through selecting cardinals you ensure continuity of direction for the next 50 – 100 years.
    The African church may not like gays but I think it would welcome advocacy for social justice.

  8. Doubt reproductive rights are the vote winner some think it is for the Dems because the republicans opposed Roe vs Wade from the moment it was handed down and it didn’t stop Reagan the Bushes and Trump from winning and if you are women that votes on the issue you wouldn’t have voted for Trump in 16 also there are probably just as many people opposed to Roe vs Wade.

  9. ‘FUBAR says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 12:07 pm

    Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 11:40 am

    I haven’t got a dog in fight but blaming JPII is holding a grudge for a long time. Pretty sure the Popes and Cardinals know that if they try and go down the “progressive” path there would be a massive schism in the Church – especially in the fastest growing area of Africa.’
    ========================
    There is a de facto ‘schism’ if you count lapsed catholics.

  10. Entropy says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 11:51 am
    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 10:01 am
    tl:dr Irene:

    I hate the Albanese government
    ===============================================

    I note her last sourced article is about an event that occurred in 2020. It appears the Albanese Government are now guilty of not inventing a time machine and fixing up child welfare issues that occurred in the past.

    ———————-
    Amazing the blinkers on about the Albanese government.

    We know in the proudly heralded funding of over $2billion of domestic violence prevention measures by AG Dreyfus, spoken by him last Saturday, initiated in 2022 by the Albanese government was of least 500 child protection workers.

    ‘In 2021 as part of his election platform Anthony Albanese pledged to deliver 500 new frontline community domestic violence workers, saying:

    “Coalition governments have failed to take this task seriously. Not enough workers are funded. It’s past time to stop just talking about it – and elevate women’s safety to a national priority.”

    Labor funded the 500 community workers measure in the October 2022 Budget promising to have 200 new workers on the ground in 2022-23. None were delivered in that year.’

    From reports yesterday and today, only 2 have been employed. You can assume that this reform will be similar to Closing The Gap. Limited improvement can be expected. Even after 10 years. It has been spoken of a long term program.

    But the Albanese government is ‘seen’ to be doing something. Hopefully women’s outrage will change this. But I wouldn’t count on Albanese making an effort to help women.

    The other 2 articles were published yesterday and this morning in the Guardian. We certainly know the Job Provider model is broken. Why should providers claim any money if the unemployed person finds a job themselves?

    And Labor prefers greatly funding religious and independent schools over public schools. So disabled students get better help if they attend a private school.

    And Labor doesn’t believe equal funding of public schools worth the money.

    Labor’s policy is to fund businesses to help them make a good profit with tax payers money. Too bad about often poor service to customers.

    And of course, where Defence is considered, money can be spent/wasted on a grand scale. While many Australians suffer at home, living in tents, their cars, at risk of being attacked, or killed, by a person known to them.

  11. All those who know that tanks are useless on the modern battlefield can feel comfortable relaxed about Israel threatening to invade Rafah whilst massing tanks just outside Rafah.

    After all, there is a light mobile force holed up in Rafah, in amongst the civilians. What more does Hamas need?

    Hamas probably absorbed the Greens national security and military preparedness principles.

    It should all work out fine.

  12. Irenesays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 12:34 pm
    Entropy says:
    And of course, where Defence is considered, money can be spent/wasted on a grand scale. While many Australians suffer at home, living in tents, their cars, at risk of being attacked, or killed, by a person known to them.
    =======================================================

    Maybe i should remind you. I’m the one who is promoting home ownership for owner occupiers. Your the one promoting tax breaks for wealthy investors instead. I’m not against capped NG on new builds but totally against it on existing houses. Where owner occupiers should at least be given a fighting chance against wealthy investors. These Government subsidises on existing houses delivers nothing for the taxpayer, just for wealthy investor. If we just had it on new builds we would at least be promoting something worthwhile. By having it on existing housing stock we just promote the landlord class over the owner occupier though.

  13. Anyway, let’s cross fingers that the next stage in the Iran/Israel War does not involve the IDF capture of Rafah.

    IMO, the real signal for such a takeover by the IDF will be a public demand that civilians leave Rafah to safe zones in Northern Gaza.

    Let’s hope the massing of armour outside Rafah is a chip in the negotiations which are, apparently, about to recommence.

  14. Gallagher seems like any other nodding head behind a politician speaking. Nothing more, nothing less. She is not the problem in that video – it’s Albanese. But, then again, female politicians don’t make my balls shrivel like they do for some on here, so I don’t feel the need to make extra inferences about them.

  15. Look at Gallagher with her nose in the air.
    As Minister for Women she should have gone over and comforted the young organiser after the Prime Minister made her cry.

    Classic Labor.
    How dare you not respect everything we haven’t done for you with other people’s money?
    One.Term. Government.

  16. Taylormade says:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 12:45 pm
    VCT Et3esays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 12:16 pm
    https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1784767117033963559?s=61&t=uOUOuQOvbsFUiiFQcfJvhQ, the challenge is to watch the vid and not be reminded of the former PM+ to 2022 …
    _____________________
    Look at Gallagher with her nose in the air.
    As Minister for Women she should have gone over and comforted the young organiser after the Prime Minister made her cry.
    …………………….
    Absolutely taylormaid, it is a woman’s duty to extend emotional sympathy after her man has made them cry.

  17. It’s interesting how the far right and the far left on this site have turned an incredibly serious issue into just another bash at Albanese and Gallagher. Like every other real issue this country faces, for them the value is only how to destroy the Labor Government.

    The far right don’t really give a shit about the issue but welcome the opportunity to bash the government while hiding their own putrid policies and the far left want the issue to stay out there as long as possible so they can pretend they can actually do something about it and get votes that way.

  18. Badthinker @ #1474 Monday, April 29th, 2024 – 12:56 pm

    Look at Gallagher with her nose in the air.
    As Minister for Women she should have gone over and comforted the young organiser after the Prime Minister made her cry.

    Classic Labor.
    How dare you not respect everything we haven’t done for you with other people’s money?
    One.Term. Government.

    Didn’t take long for you to show your true colours. 😐

  19. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 12:42 pm
    VCT Et3esays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 12:16 pm
    https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1784767117033963559?s=61&t=uOUOuQOvbsFUiiFQcfJvhQ, the challenge is to watch the vid and not be reminded of the former PM+ to 2022 …

    This is terribly damaging for Albo.
    =================================================

    Hardly, it not like he promoting a Golf event. Paid for by Saudi fossil fuel money and designed to whitewash the Saudi regime. Anyone who raves on about Government being in bed with fossil fuel companies. Then posts on how great LIV golf is. Besides having Khashoggi’s spirit rolling in the Saudi Turkey consulate oven they probably cremated his body in, would have their reputation far more damaged methinks.

  20. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 12:42 pm
    VCT Et3esays:
    Monday, April 29, 2024 at 12:16 pm
    https://x.com/kevinbonham/status/1784767117033963559?s=61&t=uOUOuQOvbsFUiiFQcfJvhQ, the challenge is to watch the vid and not be reminded of the former PM+ to 2022 …

    This is terribly damaging for Albo.
    =================================================

    Hardly, it not like he promoting a Golf event. Paid for by Saudi fossil fuel money and designed to whitewash the Saudi regime. Anyone who raves on about Government being in bed with fossil fuel companies. Then posts on how great LIV golf is. Besides having Khashoggi’s spirit rolling in the Saudi Turkey consulate oven they probably cremated his body in, would have their reputation far more damaged methinks.

  21. Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has launched legal action against the Liberal National Party after he was last year booted off the party’s Senate ticket in a controversial internal ballot.
    In an extraordinary move, the first-term Senator has filed a Supreme Court lawsuit naming members of the LNP’s powerful state executive after the governing body this month rejected his appeal to the outcome of the ballot in which he cited “voter irregularities”.
    Senator Rennick lost his spot by just three votes to party treasurer Stuart Fraser in the preselection vote on July 14, last year. Members of the LNP’s state council had backed Mr Fraser 131 votes to Senator Rennick’s 128.
    Senator Rennick, an accountant, is seen as a right-wing renegade in the party ranks who, notably, withdrew his vote for the Morrison government in 2021 in protest against Covid-19 vaccine mandates.
    Mr Fraser, a moderate in the LNP, was the president of Tattersall’s in Brisbane who championed the vote allowing women to join the once men-only club.
    Senator Rennick, who has repeatedly declined interview requests from The Australian, unsuccessfully appealed the senate preselection to the LNP hierarchy raising questions about the eligibility of some voters in the ballot.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/queensland-senator-gerard-rennick-launches-legal-action-against-lnp/news-story/306a97ea9dcecb9ed9789c2d10db1386?amp

  22. A group of Australian federal police officers have launched a defamation case against the ACT government in relation to Shane Drumgold’s complaint about their handling of the Bruce Lehrmann prosecution. In December 2022 Guardian Australia revealed that Drumgold, then the director of public prosecutions, had complained that officers engaged in “a very clear campaign to pressure” him not to prosecute the alleged rape of Brittany Higgins, saying there was “inappropriate interference” and he felt investigators “clearly aligned with the successful defence of this matter” during the trial.
    Shane Drumgold, Brittany Higgins and Bruce Lehrmann
    Drumgold sent the letter to the ACT police chief on 1 November 2022, just after the collapse of the Lehrmann trial, at which the former Liberal staffer pleaded innocent to the alleged rape. Lehrmann was not convicted at the trial, abandoned due to juror misconduct, but was found by a federal court judge in April on the balance of probabilities to have raped Higgins on minister Linda Reynold’s couch in Parliament House in 2019. In the letter, Drumgold, who resigned in August 2023, warned that he believed there had been “some quite clear investigator interference in the criminal justice process”.
    A group of AFP officers sent concerns notices related to the letter several months ago. On Friday the AFP officers, including Det Insp Marcus Boorman, lodged defamation proceedings in the ACT registry of the federal court.

  23. Lordbain
    Your claim that that the victims of domestic violence are almost always women is simply not true. About a quarter to a third of those killed each year are men (check it out for yourself) and those men’s lives are important too; or do you disagree with that?

    No-one is saying that the loss of women’s lives is unimportant. On the contrary, Western society has always regarded the safety of women as a higher priority than that of men and most men are comfortable with that, including me. But in seeking answers to domestic violence it is simply not on to totally ignore the fact that a significant number of men are being killed as well.

  24. Albo misreads the room … again …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-29/albanese-rally-gender-based-violence-parliament-house/103780082

    Something during this period looks to have changed the PM’s thinking and unprompted he walked to the front, standing behind Williams as she continued to address those gathered.

    As if by intuition, Williams foreshadowed what would come next. She told the crowd she didn’t want the politicians to speak, fearing it would become the “shit Sarah show” and make her the “next Brittany Higgins”.

    She told the crowd she wanted the focus to be on the women who’d been killed this year, and the Indigenous and queer people disproportionately affected by violence. But she feared she was set to become the story.

    “I’m the prime minister,” Albanese can be heard saying to her, with Williams having turned her back on the crowd to speak directly with him.

    In taking the microphone, Albanese met an at times hostile crowd. He thanked the organisers before saying: “To be clear, we did ask to speak, myself and Katy, and we’re told that wasn’t possible.”

    Williams’s reaction was immediate and visceral. “That’s a lie, that’s a full-out lie,” she said. Williams was immediately engulfed by supporters as she lowered her head and cried into her hands.

    “I’m the prime minister,” Albanese can be heard saying …

  25. Mehreen Faruqi eh, could be the first ever Greens MP who could list “property developer” on her resume. Perhaps her greatest achievement whilst in Parliament other than suing known racist Pauline Hanson. Sitting parliamentarians suing each other is quite cringeworthy.

    Greens MP Mehreen Faruqi to bulldoze native trees in $1.5 million subdivision of Port Macquarie property
    https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/renting/greens-mp-mehreen-faruqi-to-bulldoze-native-trees-in-15-million-subdivision-of-port-macquarie-property/news-story/73865314816eeaccb7f270816c6e7c7d

    Top Greens MP is bulldozing trees and vegetation to add three $1.5M luxury townhouses to her investment property portfolio – despite rare wildlife living on the land in prime koala habitat
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12285061/Greens-MP-Mehreen-Faruqi-bulldoze-20-trees-Port-Macquarie-investment-property.html

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