YouGov: 56-44 to LNP in Queensland

A new poll offers the strongest indication yet that a change of government looms in Queensland.

The Courier-Mail reports a new YouGov poll points to something approximating a landslide at the October 26 Queensland election, with the Liberal National Party opening up a 56-44 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 at the last such poll in October. Labor has slumped six points on the primary vote to 27%, with the LNP up three to 44%, the Greens up two to 15% and One Nation up two to 10%. Leadership ratings show Steven Miles at 25% approval and 47% disapproval, while David Crisafulli is respectively on 40% (up three from October) and 26% (steady). Crisafulli leads 40-27 as preferred premier, having led Annastacia Palaszczuk 37-35 in the October poll. The poll was conducted April 9 to 17 from a sample of 1092.

Further developments relevant to the coming election from the past few months:

The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports the LNP has committed to not directing preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor. A contrary decision in 2020 helped Amy MacMahon to win South Brisbane for the Greens from Labor’s then deputy leader, Jackie Trad.

• Also from Feeding the Chooks, Labor has preselected Kassandra Hall in Redcliffe and Bisma Asif in Sandgate, respectively to be vacated by Yvette D’Ath and Sterling Hinchliffe. Hall is a former prosecutor and current industrial services officer for the Independent Education Union, who ran for Voluntary Euthanasia Party at the Victorian election in 2018 and was a member of the Liberal Party two decades ago. Asif is a policy adviser to federal Aged Care Minister Anika Wells.

Stephanie Bennett of the Courier-Mail reports the LNP has confirmed its candidates for the Labor-held marginals of Aspley and Pumicestone, which will respectively be contested by Amanda Cooper, who served Bracken Ridge ward on Brisbane City Council from 2007 to 2019, and Ariana Doolan, 22-year-old electorate officer to Glass House MP Andrew Powell.

Sally Gall of Queensland Country Life reports former Barcaldine mayor Sean Dillon has won LNP preselection for the rural seat of Gregory, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Lachlan Miller. Dillon won a local party vote ahead of ABC journalist Nicole Bond, Central Highlands councillor Joe Burns and Western Queensland Drought Committee principal Nicole Heslin.

Heidi Petith of the Daily Mercury reports Glen Kelly, a Rockhampton region grazier, will be the LNP’s candidate for Mirani, which Stephen Andrew has held for One Nation since 2017.

Samuel Davis of the Cairns Post reports on three prospective nominees for LNP preselection in Cook: David Kempton, who held the seat from 2012 to 2015; Michael Kerr, mayor of Douglas and chair of the Far North Queensland Regional Organisation of Councils; and Kevin Davies, deputy mayor of Mareeba.

Paul Weston of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports nominees for LNP preselection in the Gold Coast seat of Gaven are Bianca Stone, former Seven Network reporter; Kirsten Jackson, former staffer to Liberal Senator Alan Eggleston and Nationals Senator Ron Boswell, who ran for the seat in 2020; and Lisa Smith, a teacher and rural fire brigade volunteer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

70 comments on “YouGov: 56-44 to LNP in Queensland”

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  1. Yeah, I’m pretty much in agreement that the Queensland Labor government under Steven Miles is a goner.

    He too easily comes across as a smug twerp, and has been unable to shake off that reputation.

    But I don’t think he’ll lose as badly as Anna Bligh did in 2012, probably seats in the 20’s at worst and the 30’s at best.

  2. Cameron Dick would have been far better, alas he comes from the wrong faction, and the power brokers of the left anointed their man, Giggles Miles.
    Maybe if the budget in June contains a lot of sweeteners, that might save a few marginal and less marginal seats, but the dye was cast months ago.

  3. the leadership could have been put to a vote but unfortunately Cameron Dick preferred to watch Miles crash and burn and be crowned king of the ashes in the aftermath than try to win a tough election. Not that anyone in any faction of the ALP would ever suffer the opinions of its rank and file anyway

  4. I still think it will be closer than this poll indicates. The LNP and Mr Crisifulli as opposition leader have a lot of negatives to exploit that are real . The guys who were tossed out unceremoniously 9 years ago are all still there at the helm. Mr Crisifulli himself was considered Cando Newmans right hand man in far Q and lost his Townsville seat and decamped to the opposite end of Q to the GC which is solid gold LNP turf. The LNP didn’t renew and are extremely low on talent. On these figures the ALP will lose but it might end up not being the humiliation this poll speaks of. Six months to go and with a few ideas still up their sleeves and a large pile of money to spend courtesy of good budget situation we may see a things coming back a bit.

  5. Can Steven Miles turn this around, or at least make the next election closer than it appears to be at present? They’ll need a big spending, giveaway budget in June, certainly targeted at the semi-marginal seats they need to retain – the likes of Nicklin, Caloundra, Pumicestone, Bundaberg which Anatascia won in 2020 on the back of the covid response are probably gone now, so the electorates in the 6-10% range are the ones Miles and Dick and co need to direct resources at.
    I agree the LNP are totally unknown quantities at this point, supported of course by a very partisan Courier Mail and commercial TV in Brisbane, and they haven’t as yet announced any actual policies that I can think of.

  6. The LNP policy is that they aren’t Labor. Oh and they will be tough on crime. They will probably do other stuff but that’s not relevant pre election. 🙂

  7. What if the polling continues to detiorate with Miles at the helm?

    A switch then could be a necessity.

    It could be a switching from Truss to Sunak scenario – know ur going to lose, but lose less badly with a switch. That would suggest a late change to Dick could be needed.

  8. I think the problem is Miles has a media image of being juvenile and lightweight, a bit like Truss.

    Whatever you say about Cameron Dick, he has gravitas and could run an effective scare campaign against a return of the lnp. It might not win but it could save furniture that is clearly in danger of being lost under Miles.

  9. LVT: I wouldn’t underestimate Miles, the ALP has lot of ammunition to still throw at Crisifulli and the LNP . Qld has seen them in action and did not like the cut of their jib only nine years ago. Mr Crisifulli was a big part of that debacle and many other prominent figures are still there – no renewal. In reality outside the pages of the courier and ch seven news, The Qld government runs a pretty good show and crime is highly contestable , the LNP really has very little else to run on other than this and the it’s time factor. LNP will likely win but it could be a closer run thing than these figures suggest.

  10. PrinceP – it’s over. I feel that you (and some others) may hope for the ALP to “somehow recover”, but pls, it’s over for them this cycle. There is no coming back from the recent 15% primary swing, putting aside the 30% primary swing in the other by-election. The “only-ALP” posters on the main thread don’t talk about this figure, but 30% is brutal. It’s over! The sensible posters are very familiar with the “Penrith 2010 State by-election”, & some can go back further and look at the “Canberra Federal by-election 1995”. I canvassed my thoughts on Anzac Day about QLD (and although I’m not the most canny of posters), I’m confident to say the crime issue is enough to put the QLD state ALP into minority via the loss of Regional ALP seats. The recent by-elections confirm that the “anti ALP virus” has now moved to Brisbane’s suburbs. QLD is heading towards a big state ALP wipeout (not Federal). At the moment, the VicLibs can barely field a cricket team. I would hazard a guess and say the QLD State ALP, may field a cricket team, pls maybe a 12th man.

    per Mr Miles – he comes across as a silly clown and has acted in that role, on & off, for several years now. AP was regarded as a steady pair of hands – nothing fazed her and she never played favourites. She was always there when something went wrong and she stuck up for QLD. The way she was removed from power does not sit well with QLD’ers, especially women QLD’ers. Mr Miles reminds me of one of those clowns at the show where you pop a ball into it’s mouth. He was the one who ripped up the “bill” from NSW during the COVID period – very childish. Remember, there are a lot of NSW residents moving to QLD on a qtrly basis – they would hate him, or at least his local ALP candidate.

    Just speaking of the QLD/NSW population drift. QLD is heading towards a 31’st division. Currently sitting on around 30.33 quota’s. Another 9-12 months, they should tip over to a 31’st division, although this won’t be adjusted until around 13 months after the next Parliament first sits. You heard it first here. WB – you can check your own figures I’m sure – you know I’m on the ball.

    I look closely at the numbers & trends. I’m not really concerned with the who “wants” what or who “wills” what. It’s nonsense. It’s the numbers and trends, especially, which count. The figures which WB drops on the poll data tab are fairly succinct, especially the QLD figures from latish 2023. Gosh, 22% primary is ghastly. Won’t be the figure on election night, but 22% primary is frightful.

    Lars – Unlikely to be a change of leadership in the next 25 weeks. What’s the point Sir? If you were Mr Dick, would you want “it” now and what would you do with “it”. His only “excitement” will be to deliver a speech conceeding defeat on election night at around 7.20PM, and then hoping that no-one is watching it. Shannon Fentiman is not going to become leader now. She will end up being the “Keep Kate” politician of the late 2020’s.

    The ALP machine will kick into gear after the election and hold Mr Chrisafulli to account. This is what politics should be. Gut feeling is that Mr Chrisafulli will sit very quiet over summer 2024/2025 and wait for the Federal election to pass.

    This blog will probably drop off the radar soon but, WB, I hope that you will re-activate it in current form as the QLD election approaches. Has been quite a discussion I have to say.

    Lars/PrinceP (& Lordbain for that matter) – thanks for your posts this weekend. You are all very knowledgable posters and thanks for taking the time to banter. I usually just drop by for the polls but QLD is of interest to me so good to get your thoughts.
    I might drop by during Budget week.

  11. Nadia 88 is 100% right.

    I have a pathological disdain for the LNP at all levels – but they will, as night ight follows day form government after the next QLD election. They will be as useless and offensive as the last federal and Qld LNP government, but they will romp home, as much as I and others will be hoping against it.

    As noted, Qld loves a swing and when they swing, they swing big.

    Albo won’t mind. He needs the LNP in power there to reduce the near complete federal drag.

    DO not take this as any form of endorsement, please! The LNP in QLD are as dysfunctional as the LNP in Victoria. They will be dreadful. They are bereft of ideas other than emolument. And they will make the same old mistake. They won’t be winning the election, the ALP will be losing it.

  12. Probably the worst part of it is how much environmental damage an LNP government can do to a state with 1.85 million square kilometres, considering they would have 4 years to enact all of it with no upper house to stop it, and how important much of it is to the country as a whole.

  13. Thanks Nadia not so sure you are right about the size of the defeat in Qld but I respect your opinion. I am on the ground here and experienced the debacle of the Cando government and still think this may mitigate the extent of the loss. Maybe I’m dreaming as you say but I still think that the issues the LNP has at its disposal are not in the same order as were the case in 2012 where even the unions were campaigning against Bligh. You are probably right though and I don’t dispute that Labor under Miles are heading for the opposition benches just not so sure it will be as catastrophic as you think especially considering the CPV is more favourable to Labor than was OPV that enabled candos massive majority as well as several of Beatties big majorities. All the best and we will see who is right in six months. I will be the first to acknowledge your prescience should things be as ugly for Labor as you forecast.

  14. Nadia : I subscribe to this news site, he’s not conceding defeat just acknowledging what we’ve been talking about, that the polling and by election results were/ are pretty bad and on the evidence an LNP win looks likely. Miles is a smarter guy than you may realise ( not sure if you are Qld based) He is saying in this article that he will use the next six months to remind Qlders of the cando legacy (which Mr Crisifulli was an enthusiastic and prominent part of) and prise out what a Crisifulli LNP government would involve so we know what we are voting for. The LNP in Qld are an altogether different outfit than elsewhere with Qld being less urbanised than other states. I am also aware that the LNP will very likely win big in October but I think that they and Crisifulli have not been put under any pressure by our very biased LNP aligned media, when nailed down by Miles to make a decision on the Olympic stadium recently he fluffed it. I would like to know what the LNP are going to do when they get into government other than be tough on crime whatever that may entail. Specific issues I’d like addressed would be will they backtrack on renewable targets, will they once again cut the public service and if so by how much , which services will be cut, which assets will be sold, will power and utilities subsidies for households be cut. Once upon a time the media would ask these questions.

  15. Apparently the LNP is struggling to find candidates in winnable seats and seats generally. Apparently in most branches the average age of the branch is well north of retirement age. I wouldn’t be too sure of a thumping victory and a minority LNP government is a strong possibility.

  16. Algernon: I hope you right as an LNP government with large majority would not be good for many. I think they would return to the nonsense of 2012 . Maybe a minority situation would at least curb some of their more extreme tendencies seeing there has been virtually no renewal amongst the ranks since then.

  17. Lars Von Trier says:
    “I think the problem is Miles has a media image of being juvenile and lightweight …”

    “… a bit like Truss.”

    No, nothing at all like mad Lizzie Borden.

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