The Courier-Mail reports a new YouGov poll points to something approximating a landslide at the October 26 Queensland election, with the Liberal National Party opening up a 56-44 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 52-48 at the last such poll in October. Labor has slumped six points on the primary vote to 27%, with the LNP up three to 44%, the Greens up two to 15% and One Nation up two to 10%. Leadership ratings show Steven Miles at 25% approval and 47% disapproval, while David Crisafulli is respectively on 40% (up three from October) and 26% (steady). Crisafulli leads 40-27 as preferred premier, having led Annastacia Palaszczuk 37-35 in the October poll. The poll was conducted April 9 to 17 from a sample of 1092.
Further developments relevant to the coming election from the past few months:
• The Australian’s Feeding the Chooks column reports the LNP has committed to not directing preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor. A contrary decision in 2020 helped Amy MacMahon to win South Brisbane for the Greens from Labor’s then deputy leader, Jackie Trad.
• Also from Feeding the Chooks, Labor has preselected Kassandra Hall in Redcliffe and Bisma Asif in Sandgate, respectively to be vacated by Yvette D’Ath and Sterling Hinchliffe. Hall is a former prosecutor and current industrial services officer for the Independent Education Union, who ran for Voluntary Euthanasia Party at the Victorian election in 2018 and was a member of the Liberal Party two decades ago. Asif is a policy adviser to federal Aged Care Minister Anika Wells.
• Stephanie Bennett of the Courier-Mail reports the LNP has confirmed its candidates for the Labor-held marginals of Aspley and Pumicestone, which will respectively be contested by Amanda Cooper, who served Bracken Ridge ward on Brisbane City Council from 2007 to 2019, and Ariana Doolan, 22-year-old electorate officer to Glass House MP Andrew Powell.
• Sally Gall of Queensland Country Life reports former Barcaldine mayor Sean Dillon has won LNP preselection for the rural seat of Gregory, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Lachlan Miller. Dillon won a local party vote ahead of ABC journalist Nicole Bond, Central Highlands councillor Joe Burns and Western Queensland Drought Committee principal Nicole Heslin.
• Heidi Petith of the Daily Mercury reports Glen Kelly, a Rockhampton region grazier, will be the LNP’s candidate for Mirani, which Stephen Andrew has held for One Nation since 2017.
• Samuel Davis of the Cairns Post reports on three prospective nominees for LNP preselection in Cook: David Kempton, who held the seat from 2012 to 2015; Michael Kerr, mayor of Douglas and chair of the Far North Queensland Regional Organisation of Councils; and Kevin Davies, deputy mayor of Mareeba.
• Paul Weston of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports nominees for LNP preselection in the Gold Coast seat of Gaven are Bianca Stone, former Seven Network reporter; Kirsten Jackson, former staffer to Liberal Senator Alan Eggleston and Nationals Senator Ron Boswell, who ran for the seat in 2020; and Lisa Smith, a teacher and rural fire brigade volunteer.
Looking pretty bad for ALP in Qld. Yet The LNP has not presented a real reason for change other than crime ( which is a contested area) never the less a change of government looks inevitable on these figures.
Yes Labor are looking down the barrel. They’ve had a great run since they tossed out The Marching Ideologue. Well done AP and the team.
Should have gone for Fentiman or Dick. Miles is a disaster as these figures show – perhaps they can still put one of these two in to save the furniture?
This looks like a 2012 result when the ALP vote was 26.7%, except that the 2PP should not be as bad because the Greens vote will be higher than in 2012 when it was only 7.53%. This time however the Greens may be elected in some inner city seats rather than contributing to a possible ALP win on preferences.
Maybe the Labor power brokers knew a loss was certain in October and so they decided to make Steven Miles carry the can for it, and so preserve Dick or Fentimen to be Opposition Leader in the next parliament, and hope a future LNP government only lasts one term.
I think Miles is a terrible choice for Premier from this distance, he comes across to me as a deer caught in the headlights, and that nervous giggle – no gravitas there at all, complete contrast with Chris Minns or Peter Malnaukis .
And based on this poll, federal Labor won’t be picking up extra seats in QLD in 2025
They have definitely got the baseball bats out.
Democracy Sausage: “And based on this poll, federal Labor won’t be picking up extra seats in QLD in 2025”
You don’t subscribe to the concept of ‘federal drag’ (the purported tendency of voters to offset their state government by voting for the other side in federal elections)?
Agree that State Labor will bear the brunt of discontent. Federal Labor will be better in Qld than 2022 is my prediction.
Labor has traded solely on not being Campbell Newman for nearly a decade but that currency has run out. They have been a terrible government, their only saving grace being that they have been not quite as gormless, dishonest and unelectable as the hapless LNP.
After the inexecrable Anna Bligh, Labor were blessed with the arrival of the equally inexecrable Campell Newman who gave Labor an unexpected new lease on life and consigned the LNP to another decade in opposition.
Labor have continued to be run by a backroom cabal of the ilk of the late Bill Ludwig and as such have pandered to vested interests and looked after the likes of Adani et al. to the detriment of all Queenslanders. The list is stunningly devoid of talent.
Have they been better than the alternative? Yes, undoubtably, but that is an extremely low bar. They have been tone deaf to community concerns about youth crime and have serious integrity issues. So no surprises when they get thrown out in October.
The sad thing is that the LNP are the same useless and dishonest crowd that they have been since the days of Bjeke-Petersen. It is likely that they will be another one-term wonder.
The big question is whether Labor will take the opportunity to clean out the swamp, bring in some talent and renew their commitment to traditional Labor values, or will they simply wait out the term with the same sorry team in the expectation that they will inevitably be recalled to the trough.
On these figures Labor is gone in Qld, with likely Premier David Crisafuli being almost completely unscrutinised and having given little policy details. Yech.
The Greens would be wise to start attacking Crisafuli and the LNP not Labor. On these numbers there won’t be enough Labor preferences to elect them in any SEQ seats even if they do come second.
Unbelievable !
I hope it’s not like the 2012 result which led to the arrogance of the Newman government.
A well connected Liberal friend of mine in Queensland tells me Cristafuli is a nice bloke but is nothing more than a puppet for the religious Right and devoid of personality. They fear for the state. Labor appears to be stuck with an its time factor. Still if Labor loses in October, it could see a few seats returned to them Federally.
…crossing live to Scott for a comment…
davidwh says:
Friday, April 26, 2024 at 9:44 am
Crisafuli appears to be quite different to Newman. He wouldn’t have agreed to the stupid emissions targets if he was.
You thought the byelection results in Inala and Ipswich were anomalies?
Spending quite a bit of time in Qld, you can feel people are annoyed and there’s definitely a febrile atmosphere towards state Labor up there.
I doubt it’ll be 56-44 in the end, but it wouldn’t take too much for it to happen.
Oppositions do not run on big promises – we shouldn’t expect this. All they need to do it is make sure the Govt is viewed as irredeemable to as many people as possible – and do just enough to look like reasonable/sensible options without making yourself the story.
Palaszczuk stayed on at least a year longer than she should have. Miles, while generally pretty unimpressive, is carrying a massive burden on his shoulders and I don’t envy him.
ALP best chance might be too highlight the LNPs obvious shortcomings in the run up to the election. Will they sell assets, get rid of subsidies for utilities, sack public servants,cut services, wind back reforms on religious grounds. Maybe this might prevent a 2012 style wipeout. A minority LNP government would be less of a worry.
Miles was a mistake , not too late for a switch ?
Lars Von Triersays:
Friday, April 26, 2024 at 11:15 am
Miles was a mistake , not too late for a switch ?
==============================
It’s too late Lars – it’s over for them.
Prince Planet – I did get back to your query from the other day. I posted Anzac morning if you wish to read my response. Didn’t want you to think I was ignoring your earlier post.
Thanks Nadia !!
hello Nadia88, have gone back and checked your analysis from Anzac Day. Seems pretty solid to me. You are right that the ALP will very likely lose seats in the regional areas. This latest poll looks ugly for them, whether Miles can pull things back a bit remains to be seen. If I were the government I’d be starting to attack the points i’ve highlighted above and start doing it pretty soon. Mr Crisifulli has had a good run in the media and there is a definite it’s time factor. I do think the media led by the courier, did a pretty effective hatchet job on Anastacia so it would have been tough for her. Remains to be seen if the ALP can bring things back to a less nasty result or if they are really cooked and will lose a lot of seats. Plenty of ammunition for Miles but maybe to no avail.
My gut feel is Labor goes into Minority through the loss of regional seats (which I feel is pretty baked-in now)- but the scale of their outright loss will depend on how strongly Brisbane turns on them.
If Labor’s primary vote does sink – then they’re also at the mercy of the Greens in Bulimba, McConnell and Cooper.
The ALP will be reduced to about 20 seats out of the 93. looking at being in opposition for a long time. The only plus side is it will help the ALP at the Federal level for the next decade.
I wouldn’t feel too sorry for Steven Miles, he wanted the top job when it was offered to him by his union masters and powerbroker mates, he could easily have said no and handed the gig over to Shannon Fentimen. I have no doubt he’s a hard worker and his heart is in the right place and he cares a lot about public services in Queensland, but the bloke has woeful media communications skills and the impression he always gives is of a work experience kid promoted way above his actual pay grade.
10 years in power or something like that for any government is considered too long by the electorate in 2024, the “time for a change” factor in Qld seems to be almost impossible to overcome for Labor. The best Miles and co can do in the next 6 months is to try and save some of the furniture and avoid a 2012 like electoral annihilation of Labor’s stocks, in other words keep enough talent there in opposition for the next 4 years so there’s a decent foundation to rebuild from.
And the crime factor up there is a huge negative for Labor.
> This looks like a 2012 result when the ALP vote was 26.7%, except that the 2PP should not be as bad because the Greens vote will be higher than in 2012 when it was only 7.53%. This time however the Greens may be elected in some inner city seats rather than contributing to a possible ALP win on preferences.
That election was also under OPV, with this one under CPV.
On the polling, I’m obviously expecting a change of government, but I doubt most people are Anna Bligh level pissed off, nor do I think Crisafulli will have the popularity that Newman managed in 2012.
Remember that Newman was the popular Mayor of Brisbane – Crisafulli is Gold Coast based, so he’s not going to have the same pull in Brisbane.
I would expect a drift back to the ALP when the LNP is forced to release some policy detail , I have heard they intend to enact a reform agenda which means a less chaotic version of what happened in 2012 to 15. Privatisation is poison in Qld and won’t be popular and I’m certain its on the agenda along with job cuts in Public service and services cuts across the board. If Labor can get these fears across maybe they can stem the flow and not lose in such a catastrophic fashion as 2012. Also Cando was a popular figure in Brisbane and came across as moderate prior to his volte face when ascending to the premiership.
Reality is that after the 2019 federal election, ALP was going to lose in 2020 until COVID came along and washed away all their sins. They got 1 term more than they deserved, so like all govts. that get 1 more term than they deserve (Keating 1993, Howard 2004, Iemma 2007, Morrison 2019) they will be annihilated in October. Only question is what does the LNP do with their majority, my guess is they will stay quiet until the federal election is over.
What will the Qld Libs do about the Olympic stadium plans if they are elected?
ALP makes Australia look like a third world organisation at present.
Holdenhillbilly our new 22 year old Liberal member will ensure the Olympic stadium will be built on Bribie island along with upgrade of BI Road to double highway plus a new bridge.
Most people haven’t yet realised there is an election later this year, so this poll basically is just measuring the “vibe”.
Lots of water to flow under the bridge and don’t underestimate the campaigning ability of the ALP in Qld. The LNP is also absolutely shit at everything, including campaigning, and are hopelessly conflicted between their city and rural supporters.
YouGov don’t appear to have put up their methodology statement for this poll yet. Not sure how prompt they usually are with this.. Anyone know?
Holdenhillbilly @ #32 Friday, April 26th, 2024 – 6:08 pm
Think you might have posted this in the wrong place!
Thanks ajm – I have deleted and posted in the correct thread (I hope).
Queensland loves to swing and they love to swing hard.
This will be a fascinating election. As will the NT!
Rental crisis smashing the state labor gov also even though it was the crazy fed gov that opened the floodgates for kiwis to live here permanently and they love Qld!
Stick a fork in em they’re cooked !
October election will see a change based on this poll, bye bye Labor it’s time.
Migration to Qld since 2017 was 375,000 and continues at 1,000 per week. About a third of those voting this year ( and in todays poll ) were not voting in Qld when Cando Campbell Newman was Premier 2012 to 2015. Recent unemployment is 3.7%, second lowest rate since 1980 and one of the lowest rates in the Nation. New coal royalties contributed to budget surpluses of $4 Billion and $14 Billion for last two years, the largest surpluses of any State, ever.
Labor legislated free kindy and free TAFE courses. A total of 3900 extra police by the end of this year. New hospitals and satellite hospitals to go with Federal Labors Urgent Care Clinics. Increase in Doctors, nurses and other health workers.
Problems include youth offenders. New facilities are being built but the answer isn’t incarceration. Eleven to sixteen year olds Australia wide are proving difficult to deal with when they play up.
Also, the lack of housing is cronic. Newman got rid of Q Build which is now back up and running. Its Tradiers and apprentices are constructing demountable homes which are being trucked to regional and rural areas. Population increases mean this infrastructure will take a few more years to sort out. Cost of living is hurting everywhere in Australia. Every Qld household gets a minimum of $135 per quarter rebate on their electricity account. Pensioners , veterans, low income households over $1,000 pa
The L/NP will not be able to fix youth behavior or housing shortages. What people should be looking at is will the coal royalties be reduced? Without this money, massive cuts must happen or debt increased. Those who were around last time the L/NP were in power remember thousands lost their jobs. Everything that could be sold off was. Seven multistorey buildings in Brisbane CBD were flogged off for 100s of millions under book value. No 1 William Street built to replace them will never be paid off.
In the most recent budget, Labor costed in $24.5 Billion for renewable energy projects over the next 4 years. Thats for new wind, solar, hydro, storage and transmission. In the State where Peter Dutton comes from, nuclear energy may compete for some of these funds. The State L/NP is very quiet on the nuclear question.
One would hope that the new parliament is not as lopsided as the one lead by Newman. L/NP 78 the rest 11.
“What will the Qld Libs do about the Olympic stadium plans if they are elected?”
@Holdenhillbilly
They basically have a “me too” postion to the Labor. That they would refer the decision to a infrastructure governing body. But the terms of reference is no new stadiums built. Funding stadiums for the Olympics is not popular with the voters particularly in the regions.
Campbell Newman thinks the LNP might go with Graham Quirk’s review. And build a stadium at Victoria Park. Which Newman is very much opposed too.
Interestingly Newman is back with the Libertarian party formally the Liberal Democrats and is on their executive. I know Newman confirmed he was no longer with the party for a while after failing to get elected in the senate last federal election.
Oof.
So, it is the LNP, PHON, UAP, the Greens, Murdoch, the Guardian, the Courier Mail, Costello and Buttrose v Labor.
I trust they all enjoy the forthcoming fruits of their labours.
State labor in Qld have themselves to blame they are responsible for law and order.They are arrogant and out of touch with a dud leader and contempt for their own citizens who increasingly live in tents.They are big fans of the ongoing big Australia population increase at the expense of Queenslanders.
Hence the polls showing labor is basically hated.
Spin that one labor luvvies!
Hence the polls showing labor is basically hated.????
Hence the past shows the Liberals are politically useless !.
It’s all well and good until about 12 months after the election and the fundamentalist RWNJ cabal who have completely taken over the LNP reveal themselves for what they really are.
South Gilead here we come.
Hurummmp, you aren’t even allowed to fish from on top of a crocodile trap in QLD, Namby Pamby rules gone mad, no wonder the government is unpopular, especially in NQ.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-26/man-seen-fishing-on-top-of-baited-croc-trap-north-queensland/103774862
Pied Piper: “… contempt for their own citizens who increasingly live in tents.“
Well, mostly in December and January. All the way along the coast.
Political Nightwatchman: “Newman confirmed he was no longer with the party for a while after failing to get elected in the senate last federal election.”
Queenslanders decided that CanDo CanGo.
Again …
Pied Pipet:
‘State labor in Qld have themselves to blame they are responsible for law and order.’
I read the news today, oh boy …
‘Two dead in separate stabbings in NSW’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/27/two-dead-in-separate-stabbings-in-nsw
‘Man dies after drive-by shooting in Melbourne street’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/27/man-dies-after-drive-by-shooting-in-melbourne-street
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/04/the-tide-is-going-out-for-queensland.html
The Tide Is Going Out For Queensland Labor
Thanks Kevin
I’ve said it before, but Miles was just a bad call in the circumstances. He’s the kind of guy who might’ve been able to do okay if he’d been handed the leadership by a government still polling well, but (as I speculated at the time) public perceptions of him were baked in and he was just the wrong man to try to catch up when they were behind.
Fentiman or Dick might have at least saved a lot more of the furniture, but the factions and key unions went for a mate (or someone far more popular in the party bubble than outside it) over a pragmatic choice, and it’s been for the LNP’s benefit.