Morgan: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)

The weekly Roy Morgan brings Labor slightly good news on two-party preferred, but bad news on the primary vote.

There being nothing else on in the world of polling this week, the weekly Roy Morgan gets a rare guernsey. After a tied result last time, Labor recovers a two-party preferred lead of 51-49, despite equalling their worst primary vote result for the term, down one-and-a-half to 30%. The Coalition is also down half a point, to 37.5%, with Labor’s two-party result benefiting from a one-and-a-half point rise in the Greens to 15.5%, their equal best result for the term, and a one point drop for One Nation to 3.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1677.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,864 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Lordbain says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 9:44 pm
    yabba, Boerwar was the one arguing that Australia could compete and potentially replace the Chinese production base. I was pointing out how absurd that is. Also note how actual reasonable plans (establishing energy security, increasing productivity and encouraging tech RandD) were plans I kept supporting.


    I must of missed one of Boerwar’s posts. Could you point the pertinent post out in which Boerwar argues that Australia could “potentially replace the Chinese production base”? A timestamp is fine. Thanks in advance.

  2. In contrast to Australia the Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach) is elected by the lower house (Dáil) and retains the position at the Dáil’s pleasure rather than the President’s. 1975 could not have happened if Australia had this system.

    The new Taoiseach has been elected – Simon Harris
    Yes: 88 Government + 9 independents

    No: 69 all opposition parties + 10 independents

  3. Dandy Murray says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 10:23 pm
    Griff just loves a paper chase


    Good admin support is hard to come by these days! 🙂

  4. Sayed Abdellatif is an Egyptian refugee, who has finally been freed from Australian detention after 12 years, and is now able to join his family. His is a story of torture in Egypt and political persecution in Australia, after Abbot falsely labelled him a convicted terrorist just to undermine Gillard on national security.


    ‘The inspector general of intelligence in 2014 found Abdellatif posed no threat to national security, and since then department officials have recommended to successive ministers that he be granted a visa to live in the community. That has been rejected until now.’

    It is truly evil that the Liberals used this man as a political pawn and were prepared to destroy his life. And ASIO were up to their necks in it.

  5. Dandy Murray says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 9:33 pm
    SunDrive, FUBAR.

    No secrets. Just testing you.

    So good that they aren’t listed on the ASX or anywhere else.

  6. FUBARsays:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 10:48 pm
    Dandy Murray says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2024 at 9:33 pm
    SunDrive, FUBAR.

    No secrets. Just testing you.

    So good that they aren’t listed on the ASX or anywhere else.

    No they aren’t. Just two big private investors. Blackbird VC and Mike Cannon-Brookes.

  7. Mundo at 11.57 am

    [“Labor needs to stop doing things that make people’s lives better and see if their PV improves. Let’s face it, the ungrateful great unwashed aren’t that bright.”]

    Well said. The comedian John Clarke put it in his pithy way 40 years ago:

    “Too little is written about the ignorance of the Australian people. There is, by way of contrast, too much written about their intelligence.”

    A Dagg At My Table: Selected Writings, 1996, p 83.

    The Voice Referendum demonstrated, for various reasons, that little has changed when it comes to political and constitutional knowledge in Australia. It once took a Kiwi devoted to Australia to point this ignorance out so directly.

    Perhaps it is not so strange that some foreigners perceive Australia more accurately than many locals. Here is the opinion of Australia’s most experienced diplomat on the problem:

    “If we vote No on the Voice, however skilfully we explain that result, we will be seen as a country whose advocacy of international decency is freely laced with hypocrisy.”

    John McCarthy AO, former Ambassador to the US, Indonesia, India and Japan, at:

  8. And, in case you missed it…… March 2024 was the hottest month in recorded history.

    Lucky climate change is crap, then, isn’t it.

    Bring me another little planet, this one’s cooked.

  9. No end to trouble at Boeing… Dreamliner issues… again.. “ not an immediate … issue”.
    Put that in fine print on your ticket!
    This is what you get when you merge with McDonald Douglas that built plans where doors also fell off ..

    From the NYT..
    Mr. Lewis said Boeing had done extensive testing on the Dreamliner and “determined that this is not an immediate safety of flight issue.”

    “Our engineers are completing complex analysis to determine if there may be a long-term fatigue concern for the fleet in any area of the airplane,” Mr. Lewis said. “This would not become an issue for the in-service fleet for many years to come, if ever, and we are not rushing the team so that we can ensure that analysis is comprehensive.”

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