The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (steady). On personal ratings, all we are told for now is that Anthony Albanese has a net minus six (up one), Peter Dutton a net minus 15 (steady), and Albanese holds a 13-point lead as preferred prime minister (down one). UPDATE: Albanese is steady on 44% approval and down one to 50% on disapproval; Dutton is down one on both approval and disapproval, to 36% and 51%; preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-34 to 48-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1236.
Nine Newspapers also brings us the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which gives Labor its weakest result since the election. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 30%, with the Coalition up one to 36%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation steady on 5%. Resolve Strategic does not include two-party preferred results, but the report quotes its director Jim Reed saying Labor and the Coalition were tied “after preferences were calculated on the stated intention of survey respondents“.
Both leaders record improved personal ratings: Anthony Albanese is up five on approval (or more specifically, his combined very good and good result on his “performance as prime minister in recent weeks”) to 43% and down four on disapproval to 45%, while Peter Dutton is up four to 40% and down two to 42%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 40-30 to 41-32. The poll was conducted Wednesday through to Sunday from a sample of 1610.
The poll also includes results on favoured household assistance measures for the looming budget, which are interestingly broken down into low, medium and high income cohorts, producing startlingly different results. Given one of five options to pick, only 3% on low incomes favoured lower income tax rates, with 28% supporting higher welfare payments and 27% energy bill relief. For the high income cohort, 27% favoured “downward pressure on inflation and interest rates” (presumably to be accomplished through no household assistance at all), with only 8% favouring higher welfare.
I’ve been ruminating on a conundrum for the past couple of days. To wit, what is the salience of a 2PP figure anymore, when the Teals are camping out in so many former Liberal Party seats, and Labor have taken some others? A 2PP such as we see in the polls, seems to suggest that the Coalition are within a hair’s breadth of overtaking the government, when the actual truth is that the Coalition need to get over the top of the Teals, who will be aided by their Sophomore Surge, among a likely general tick of approval for their performance, as well as take those lusted after Regional seats that Peter Dutton has set his sights on. That’s a tall order in anyone’s book and puts him further behind the 8 ball than the misleading 2PP polls suggest I think.
All these election predictions made me ponder.
Bookie watch (Sportsbet)
– Aus fed: Labor $1.55, LNP $2.50
– Year of election, 2025 = $1.20
– QLD (Oct ’24): LNP $1.18, Labor $5
– WA (March ’25): Labor $1.50, LNP $2.65
– UK (Most seats): Labour $1.03, Tories $11
– US: Person – Trump $2, Biden $2.10. Party – Dems $1.83, GOP $1.91
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 9:05 pm
Douglas and Milko says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 8:29 pm
In fact, we are worried sick.
You don’t need to be. Australian voters very rarely throw out first term governments. They even didn’t to Rudd -Gillard.
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With budget in surplus, unemployment with a 3 in front of it, inflation coming back into the desired range. It is hard to see that trend of first term Governments being returned not continuing. Certainly with the current economic conditions. It would be hard to see how the LNP could argue they would be better economic managers without everyone bursting out in a fit of laughter.
Entropy @ #757 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 – 9:06 pm
nath’s hoped for downfall of Shorten was predicted by him relentlessly from the time he became Labor Opposition leader, through the 2016 election and the 2019 election. It falls under the rubric of, ‘even a clock is right twice a day’.
Let it ride, Madhouse
Is it OLSC time Andy?
Entropy @ #760 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 – 9:16 pm
As serious journos are starting to point out, Peter Dutton is all complaints about economic conditions and no solutions. How long he can keep bamboozling the electorate into taking it on faith that, ‘the better economic managers’ have solutions it’s just that they haven’t told us yet, is an interesting question that I don’t know the answer to.
Lol, Sportsbet. Weren’t they the crew who paid out on Labor in 2019? 😆
“Is it OLSC time Andy?”
Don’t left the fear of losing everything you own hold you back, sport. Off you go now.
Tricot says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 8:36 pm
“Fubar ….What is your problem with solar panels on the roof”
Built our house 20 years ago. Installed a Solarhart with gas booster. It shit itself as soon as the warranty period was over with thousands of litres lost from the split pipes in the roof. The plumber came and cut off the Solarhart and we ran off the gas storage from then on. The useless piece of crap is still sitting on our roof to this day. I got quotes for solar power and they all refuse to price removal of the redundant water heater off the roof.
And I have explained no how I view it from a macro perspective.
Little sensitive there Andy. Not the big man on campus now eh?
Catching up with the comments earlier…
Just laughable that supporters of a party whose last PM had a personal photographer (and an ethics coach!) on staff at taxpayer expense now complain about Albo being photographed by the accompanying press pack.
And others are outraged at staffers accompanying their minister on work trips.
I suppose they would prefer they were in Canberra crawling bars like a prominent former staffer described ironically as a “workaholic”?
Oppositions do not win elections- Governments lose them. Oppositions do not need to have a massive suite of policies.
“with thousands of litres lost from the split pipes in the roof,”
You do know the hot water pipes would be the same if it was a solar heater, gas or electric?. You sound a bit like Chris Uhlmann who thought high voltage powerlines can only blow over when carrying electrons from wind farms but not those from coal burners.
FUBAR @ #771 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 – 9:36 pm
It would help their credibility no end though.
Also, the proof of what you contend is contradicted by the fact that, in 2019 Labor had too many policies, but in 2022 they didn’t have none, I guess you could say they had the goldilocks amount of policies to take to the election. I don’t think a policy-free zone wins elections from Opposition.
“Little sensitive there Andy. Not the big man on campus now eh?”
_____
Ive told yoi before: you can throw as much shade at me as you like. I don’t sue for hurt feelings. Or ‘reputation’. However, I am the primary provider for two families. So anything that threatens my livelihood is a different ball game.
An OSLC complaint – no matter how risible – falls into that category. Even from an anonymous poster on a blog hiding behind the non de plume of a Nazi lover and alleged sexual harasser of female actors (Bork says hi). So … you’d better make sure your best shot … hits … because if you sow the wind, you should expect the whirlwind.
Your move.
C@t
How long before you jet off and when do you get back?
Entropy says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 9:39 pm
The copper pipes to my gas water systems have never split. The plastic pipes on the solar system split.
Andy, do you think the abuse you like to dish out to me and others on here (c@t, player one being other examples) is appropriate behaviour for a barrister? Thoughts?
It’s interesting when you get called out on your behaviour your first reaction is to threaten to sue. Glass jaw perhaps?
I read “jet off” as something different.
PB after dark.
And that’s not a comment about anyone – just me without glasses.
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 9:46 pm
Entropy says:
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 9:39 pm
The copper pipes to my gas water systems have never split. The plastic pipes on the solar system split.
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So you mean the black tubing that does the heat absorbing?. I gather new models have more like a solar panel with small capillary tubes that the water runs through now as it absorbs heat from the sun. Though probably getting a heat pump is the most effective way.
And in a crossover of posts someone else is getting very PB after dark, unless they are right into hanging out the washing, which reminds me…
In the absence of William’s intervention, I’d suggest you stop the personal abuse and name calling Andy. That’s all I am asking you do.
Up to you but I think you understand the point I am making.
Lars, I’m pretty sure that our learned colleague realised that there is no point in suing you except for the satisfaction.
Hey Fubar….Thanks for that info…
However, our Solarheart was connected to electricity rather than gas so I don’t know if this made any difference?
We had ours for 27 years BUT, and here’s the BUT, the problem was not with the solar panels but the damned hot water tank. It gave up the ghost and the replacement cost about swallowed up all the ‘savings’ over the years. We determined that in our next house we would not get such a unit again.
On the other hand, the solar panels for general usage at our present joint, have more than paid for themselves though we do not have batteries and, at the current rate of savings, it would take 10 years to recoup the capital cost of the batteries.
Having said this, I still consider the solars are good value in Perth in summer…..though of less value in winter……..
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/why-electricity-bills-are-falling-across-australia/ar-AA1nuTXa?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ACTS&cvid=d6d40c4379644a4dacdef9d0b6d88c15&ei=8
Bystander @ #775 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 – 9:45 pm
One week from tomorrow! 😯
I’ll be away from May Day until June 5. Our itinerary has been rejigged a bit. We’ll be going to Washington, New York (but only overnight, like a day and a night and a day), through Pennsylvania to Pittsburgh to see Frank Lloyd Wright’s ‘Falling Water’, then hop across to the West Coast to Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington. From there I go home after catching a plane to Houston. My son stays over there and goes down the rest of the West Coast, but I don’t have time to join him and his friend for that part of the journey. Phew!
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 10:00 pm
Lars, I’m pretty sure that our learned colleague realised that there is no point in suing you except for the satisfaction.
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Even if you win what amount of money would you be rewarded with. What is the loss of reputation of any of this worth. Not much in my opinion. Which is exactly the same problem Reynolds faces in her defamation case. How much loss of reputation did 5 social media posts in late 2022 and early 2023 do to her reputation. Not much in the overall scheme of things i suspect.
Dear L’arse:
If you can’t understand that hiding behind a non de plume as … questionable as Lars Von Trier – then also expressing faux shock that you only discovered what ‘pegging’ was – opens you up to remorseless satire whenever you make bullshit and endless ‘end of Albo is nigh’ posts (and for the last five years) then … that’s your problem, not mine.
You make it my problem NOT by “returning fire” or “dishing it out” or by “calling me out” but by a not so opaque threat to my livelihood. I’m just reminding you that’s a game changer & and if this all goes sideways not something that your anonymity can save you from. …
I thought it was only thin skinned conservatives with no reputation to defend that sued people for defamation. No?
@ FUBAR and Entropy: it is not ‘reputation’ or ‘hurt feelings’ alone that is at stake here.
An OSLC complaint takes time to deal with. An exhaustive process and through which there is not much in the way of income for a jobbing barrister to earn.
Moreover, once an OLSC complaint is made – not matter how risible – ‘the word’ gets out & briefs often stop coming in. From the experience of colleagues who have been through this process – and ultimately vindicated – it can take years for a practice to recover.
That all adds up potentially in my case to a largish seven figure damages claim – purely on economic loss alone.
I suspect L’arse actually knows this, but I’m reminding him just in case he’s forgotten.
Andy, abuse is not satire. I have asked you to stop. I dont respond in kind to your abuse, I ignore it.
I dont think I should have to put up with it anymore.
FUBARsays:
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 10:16 pm
I thought it was only thin skinned conservatives with no reputation to defend that sued people for defamation. No?
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Lars does like goading and pushing peoples buttons. Lars always likes goading “Yabba” as he knows how “Yabba” gets easily pissed by it. If you poke the bear you shouldn’t be to surprised when it reacts.
The process is the punishment. The Left are extremely good at implementing that strategy.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 10:24 pm
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I have no idea what OSLC complaint is. Though i do know Lars likes to goad people to get a reaction. The more it annoys the person the more Lars seems to like it. “Yabba” has become one of his favourite victims as he reacts poorly to it. My advice when dealing with Lars is always keep your cool and don’t get mad. As that is what he is trying to achieve, but i doubt he is trying to achieve anything beyond that though.
Andy look at your abusive posts. I think you are in OLSC territory with some of these posts.
I think I have had more than enough name calling and personal abuse on here which I generally dont complain about. I can look after myself verbally.
However your abuse is next level. Once again I am asking you to please stop with the abuse.
Up to you. I am going to bed.
“I dont respond in kind to your abuse, I ignore it.”
A dash of cognitive dissonance there. Let me get this right: you respond … I mean ‘ignore’ my satire … I mean ‘abuse’ by raising the spectre of a OLSC complaint over comments I make in my spare time and not in any professional capacity to an anonymous poster hiding behind a questionable non de plume. … riiight.
Andrew_Earlwood will desist from his extraordinarily immature and unpleasant references to “pegging”.
I have had a good laugh at the FUBAR on solar panels and solar hot water systems. I am in Melbourne and live on a slope facing east. It is possibly the worst site for solar panels you could imagine. Solar HWS is not great idea but the solar panels (22) are great. I installed 6 panels for around $8000 (after a rebate) about 26 years ago to drive an air conditioner. Hot sunny days produce both heat and electricity. Works a treat.
The next 16 panels went on about 4 years ago. The total cost was $4500 of which 50% was a rebate. Therefore $2225.
Latest quarterly bill was $7.56. Nothing for electricity but heaps for maintaining the grid connection.
I know I must be a bit woke, but I do enjoy doing my bit for the climate (and the money I save every day).
Nobody promoting renewable energy seriously is pushing solar hot water these days. Solar PV to collect power running an electric heat pump system is far more efficient and not vulnerable to corrosion the way some solar hot water systems are.
Solar hot water varies in quality and life. I’m not defnding systems that don’t last. Like many aspects of the building industry, it needs tighter standards.
Whilst it’s not my personal cup of tea/glass of shiraz, I see someone is going to import Ford F150 Lightning EV utes to Australia. So Labor’s policy is finally leading to a wider range of EVs.
https://goauto.com.au/car-reviews/ford/f-150/lightning/2024-rhd-ausev-f150-lightning-review/2024-04-08/93535.html
New research from Anglicare Australia has shown that low income earners in SA are facing homelessness with only 1% of advertised rental properties being affordable. The most at risk people are single people, those with disabilities, and those on parental benefits.
Retirees on the age pension are also at risk, along with couples on minimum wages.
Kasy Chambers, Anglicare Australia executive director, has said:
“Results have never been so bad for a person on the minimum wage, with affordability halving over the last year. Even couples on the minimum wage are locked out of nearly 90 per cent of rentals.”
The long term answer is for governments to build public housing. But governments need to take action now. The ACCC will investigate allegations of price gouging by supermarkets. The Federal Government should also direct the ACCC to investigate allegations of gouging by landlords. They won’t, of course, because they’re afraid of the ‘mums and dads’ property investors.
Meanwhile more tents are going up in the Adelaide parklands.
Do the (not a political party) Teals do their own polling and is it available to peruse ?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/04/21/federal-polls-newspoll-and-resolve-strategic-open-thread/comment-page-16/#comment-4264908
Noted, WA state and QLD state polling, even betting.
Hmmm, plus a lot of the electorate will want their hip pocket issues improved, real wages, take home pay, no matter the wonderful policies, woke/ conservative noise/ tribalism, or write ups by the IMF …
Still underwhelmed with the Aus fed gov from 2022 (on poll aggregators down about 1.3% since the election), or that to 2022, and was surprised the PM+ hung on in 2019. Though would expect the ALP to do less damage than the LN(C)P. There seems to be quite a bit of talent on the front bench unlike shadow cabinet.
Happy to see more minor parties, or grouped independents to break through two parties duopoly [ColesWorth of] pollyTICs.
The why, how and what all matter.
And way past time to progress/ advance Australia, fair. More like Scandinavia, Switzerland, Singapore and less like the Poms/ Yanks.
Governance. The Ersatz fICAC/ CIC (looking at the Aus fed gov to 2022, or coalition staffers payout). Campaign finance reform. Useful FoI/ whistleblowers/ journos/ activists. Mandatory and binding referendums on war powers, republic/ monarchy/ flag.
Powershift. In the 1940s, even the USN was clear its future was going to be aviation and subs. Generations on Ukraine and other conflicts seem to be about special forces/ highly trained units instead of conscripts/ militia, space, stand off rather than capital platforms, missiles, drones, AI rather than on water or under water targets. Anyone seen the footage of a Bradley taking on the latest Russian armour?
Climate. More needs doing on the energy transition. The opposition’s thought bubbles on small/ large reactors make about as much sense as (J)AUKUS, let alone Quad. Stop gap American $$Ns before (J)AUKUS ones with American tech and Pommy for offshore rather than approaches or inshore.
Inequality. Especially social housing. Where’s the resources tax/ royalties to feed into a SWF to make uni free, instead of tweaking HECS.
Healthcare … further warnings on forever chemicals, plastics, let alone avian flu strains jumping to mammals are bad. And let’s not forget child and aged care.
I still can’t believe ‘… Albo’ wasting most of 2023 on a some pigs are more equal than others vanity initiative (VTP&E). Sorta trust us, we’ll explain later, is how one nephew summed it up. It’ll be interesting what’ll come out of local/ territory or state efforts on truth and reconciliation, treaty etc, given other former colonies are getting noisier on sovereignty and reparations (take England, and France, in the Caribbean).
And contrast some of that with support for Ukraine and the Holy Land in 2024 (which is going to go down badly in Western Sydney, see the member for Chifley).
Hope he’s looking over his shoulder because having stuffed flora and fauna some more the member of Sydney seems to be trying PR to rebuild her profile.
And my 2007/ 2010 (93% shared 2.5GPON fibre, rest wireless) and 2013 and 2022 bug bear, comms/ broadband.
As in need/ want/ ability/ willingness to pay.
Driving an hour from here to the nearest capital city/ airport (noted even Qantas Group is putting Wi-Fi on international flights) means mobile drops to 3G (supposedly being switched off) and then to no bars at least twice for about a third of the journey.
WFH means doing anything video/ voice on mobile 4G LTE (may be 5G mm real soon now), and the rest on Wi-Fi/ Nbnco (FTTN maxes out on the ACCC’s box at about 36/ 7 Mbps, with some packet loss/ congestion, latency/ jitter reminiscent of DSL, though drop outs/ reconnections seem much better).
Nbnco (going back to the 2007 and 2013 elections) is at long last putting more all fibre (and trialing beyond 2.5GPON) into the network, and ripping out copper. Supposedly by 2025 those on all fibre/ HFC will get close to ultrafast. Though it seems unclear what happens to 1/ 8 fibre copper premises (apparently 600K premises). Presumably some will go all wired fibre, the rest wireless.
Fixed terrestrial wireless is getting upgraded to superfast by 2024.
Though I haven’t see what they (GEO/ Sky Muster Plus, supposedly it’ll allow bursting to 100 Mbps, even America’s FCC says below 100 Mbps isn’t broadband) are proposing vs LEO/ sat constellations/ Starlink.
New thread.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/04/how-can-we-bridge-the-gap-between-economic-fact-and-economic-sentiment-a-new-report-sheds-light/
Not impressed with the ANZAC advertisement. All white actors, this is not modern Australia.
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 at 10:10 pm
Bystander @ #775 Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 – 9:45 pm
C@t
How long before you jet off and when do you get back?
One week from tomorrow!
I’ll be away from May Day until June 5. Our itinerary has been rejigged a bit. We’ll be going to Washington, New York (but only overnight, like a day and a night and a day), through Pennsylvania to Pittsburgh to see Frank Lloyd Wright’s ‘Falling Water’, then hop across to the West Coast to Portland, Oregon and Seattle, Washington. From there I go home after catching a plane to Houston. My son stays over there and goes down the rest of the West Coast, but I don’t have time to join him and his friend for that part of the journey. Phew!
_______
What dates are you in Portland Ore @cat?
I leave for a few weeks there to visit family/friends on Tuesday.