The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (steady). On personal ratings, all we are told for now is that Anthony Albanese has a net minus six (up one), Peter Dutton a net minus 15 (steady), and Albanese holds a 13-point lead as preferred prime minister (down one). UPDATE: Albanese is steady on 44% approval and down one to 50% on disapproval; Dutton is down one on both approval and disapproval, to 36% and 51%; preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-34 to 48-35. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1236.
Nine Newspapers also brings us the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which gives Labor its weakest result since the election. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 30%, with the Coalition up one to 36%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation steady on 5%. Resolve Strategic does not include two-party preferred results, but the report quotes its director Jim Reed saying Labor and the Coalition were tied “after preferences were calculated on the stated intention of survey respondents“.
Both leaders record improved personal ratings: Anthony Albanese is up five on approval (or more specifically, his combined very good and good result on his “performance as prime minister in recent weeks”) to 43% and down four on disapproval to 45%, while Peter Dutton is up four to 40% and down two to 42%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 40-30 to 41-32. The poll was conducted Wednesday through to Sunday from a sample of 1610.
The poll also includes results on favoured household assistance measures for the looming budget, which are interestingly broken down into low, medium and high income cohorts, producing startlingly different results. Given one of five options to pick, only 3% on low incomes favoured lower income tax rates, with 28% supporting higher welfare payments and 27% energy bill relief. For the high income cohort, 27% favoured “downward pressure on inflation and interest rates” (presumably to be accomplished through no household assistance at all), with only 8% favouring higher welfare.
WB: The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has Labor with an unchanged two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 33% (up one), Coalition 38% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (steady).
I don’t understand how 2PP is 51-49 based on that PVs.
For example, earlier others included UAP, which no longer exists. So 1.5% from UAP went to L-NP.
That includes an error I promptly corrected: the Coalition is on 38%, up one.
The poll also includes results on favoured household assistance measures for the looming budget, which are interestingly broken down into low, medium and high income cohorts, producing startlingly different results. Given one of five options to pick, only 3% on low incomes favoured lower income tax rates, with 28% supporting higher welfare payments and 27% energy bill relief. For the high income cohort, 27% favoured “downward pressure on inflation and interest rates” (presumably to be accomplished through no household assistance at all), with only 8% favouring higher welfare.
The difference between the haves and have nots for sure.
Actual governing doesn’t please all the people, all of the time. So 51-49 a month before the Budget and before the tax cuts kick in, also absent an interest rate cut, is okay by me.
C@t
You can see that with people on different incomes perspective of what the govt should do in the budget.
What can we conclude?
1) Liberals are likely to pick up some seats, but nowhere near enough to form majority govt.
2) There’s about a 1-1.5% 2PP swing against Labor which is baked in. ie a Labor minority government
3) What’s the circuit breaker with 12 months max left on the term?
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 9:52 pm
Actual governing doesn’t please all the people, all of the time. So 51-49 a month before the Budget and before the tax cuts kick in, also absent an interest rate cut, is okay by me.
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True so treating disabled people the same as it treats women would be great.
steve davissays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 9:51 pm
The poll also includes results on favoured household assistance measures for the looming budget, which are interestingly broken down into low, medium and high income cohorts, producing startlingly different results. Given one of five options to pick, only 3% on low incomes favoured lower income tax rates, with 28% supporting higher welfare payments and 27% energy bill relief. For the high income cohort, 27% favoured “downward pressure on inflation and interest rates” (presumably to be accomplished through no household assistance at all), with only 8% favouring higher welfare.
The difference between the haves and have nots for sure.
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The key marginals mostly fall into the middle and higher income bracket.
MB
So the key marginals say no handouts in the budget then?
steve davissays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 10:00 pm
MB
So the key marginals say no handouts in the budget then?
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Going by your stats it looks that way but some of the marginals have large low income communities.
MB
Shows the balancing act of Labors coming budget. Wont please them all.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 9:55 pm
What can we conclude?
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* The LNP vote is at it highest (on Newspoll) since Nov-23rd. Could be the peak this cycle, we’ll see.
* The ALP vote is now back at the level of the 2022 election. The ALP could be back in the game!
* The Greens vote has declined (on Newspoll) but not other polls, since the 2022 election.
* The polls in the 2 week period after the May Budget will have a big impact on whether we have an election this year, or next. We have a couple of polls due this week, and then a quiet time before the Budget.
Upcoming Polls:
* Morgan & Essential by Tues AM
* YouGov – any day now (3 days overdue by the way)
* Redbridge – due early May according to Kos Samaras (looks like they skipped April), but no matter.
MelbourneMammoth says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:18 pm
“I reckon Newspoll has Labor primary at 28% and Coalition at 39%”
That didn’t age well.
OS
More like Melb Mammoth was hoping it would be.
Where is the government’s head kicker? They need to find one.
The ALP continue to play Fish while the LNP play Mortal Kombat.
Clearly the ALP is performing better than the ATM Omnishambles – by every metric. And yet somehow WannabeeDrumpf Dutton still magically appears to be in the game?* As usual – the ALP wins the governing but continues to fail to smash that advantage home.
*Dutton’s being in the game is mostly illusory – they aren’t going to be winning back the Teal seats.
38% FP for LNP with a 51-49 spread to a first term Government is very good at this point in the cycle. I expected less and would prefer more.
Looking forward to peeling some of the Teal seats off and breaking the myth of them being lost forever. Not expecting an LNP victory.
Good luck to the ALP herding the cats. Who will be the Jokeshots and Whingers?
Rewi (previous thread): ”…I hope there’s a plan to win seats in other States because the West Australian is singlemindedly working to defeat Federal Labor in WA.”
Maybe our WA colleagues are as smart as Victorians, who have been ignoring Rupert’s instructions (delivered via the Daily and National Rupert) for a decade…
Or Sydney voters, who have been repeatedly returning Clover Moore as Mayor for what seems like several decades, contrary to Rupert’s instructions.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 9:23 pm
https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/tritium-s-rapid-rise-and-collapse-is-over-goes-in-to-administration
Made in Australia!!!
====================================================
The business crashed due to over ambitious expansion in the USA. So when you finally provide a source for something you don’t read it. So you still come up with the wrong conclusion.
So obviously the Libs dont want anything made in Australia. Could be something Labor can campaign on up to the election.
nadia88 what are the State level swings in your opinion?
‘Resolve Strategic … quotes its director Jim Reed saying Labor and the Coalition were tied “after preferences were calculated on the stated intention of survey respondents”.’
… but Kevin Bonham gets 52 – 48 to Labor on last-election preferences, IIRC?
I know all these polls won’t tell, what percentage of samples are from safe ALP, Safe L-NP and marginls respectively, but I think vote ALP in in ALP safe seats might have went down sharply.
Lars,circuit breakers with 12 months max left on the term;
How about just for starters, interest rate cuts, a budget surplus, something the Libs couldn’t deliver, relisation that Dutton is not fit to lead the country and nor are any of the other turkeys on his front bench, NACC outcomes that tell us what we already knew, Morrison and his Government were dodgy, revelations about the rape cover up because Reynolds was too cocky to let it drop, more evidence of the takeover by right wing religious types and revelations about their anti abortion/anti-women agenda, proof that Duttons nuclear talk is all hot air, and falling energy prices as more cheap renewables are connected to the grid.
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/other/giant-australian-manufacturer-goes-bust-with-700-jobs-at-risk/ar-BB1lPyQD?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds
Made in Australia.
Steve777: “Maybe our WA colleagues are as smart as Victorians, who have been ignoring Rupert’s instructions (delivered via the Daily and National Rupert) for a decade…”
Ditto Queenslanders, who at state level have (with one exception) ignored the Courier-Mail’s shrill shilling for more than a third of a century.
MABWM
*Dutton’s being in the game is mostly illusory – they aren’t going to be winning back the Teal seats.
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Could see them winning Mackellar before Robertson Kooyong before Higgins and Curtin before Tangney if anti-Morrison liberals start going home and labor runs a good marginal seat campaign but Nadia88 might be right about the liberals peaking because Albo has the advantage of incumbency.
steve davissays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 10:15 pm
OS
More like Melb Mammoth was hoping it would be.
_____________________
A bit like Scott’s 53/47.
On the swing numbers there are probably about a maximum of 6-8 seats that change hands.
Given how static the polls have been (around 51:49) a minority scenario seems the preferred option of The Australian people in the absence of a gamechanging event or scenario.
steve davissays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 10:19 pm
So obviously the Libs dont want anything made in Australia. Could be something Labor can campaign on up to the election.
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Dig it up, ship it out Liberals. As doing anything else would just be to hard.
As conservatism means accomplishing nothing new and being proud of it.
FUBAR:
“Looking forward to peeling some of the Teal seats off and breaking the myth of them being lost forever.”
The Liberal party is going to be reborn on climate, integrity and women’s issues?
They’d better get a move on with that …
Newspoll over the years has been trending towards gradual movements. Its more trend over time up or down that matters. Sharp movements dont seem to happen often nowadays.
Taylormade: “A bit like Scott’s 53/47.”
Kevin Bonham:
“ResolvePM ALP 30 L-NP 36 Green 13 ON 5 UAP 2 IND 11 other 3.
My 2PP estimate (last election prefs) 52.1 to ALP (-1.5)”
“As conservatism means accomplishing nothing new and being proud of it.”
True. Stay the same or go backwards should be their motto.
”Dig it up, ship it out”
A Third World economy. We don’t (yet) suffer too badly from the Resource Curse (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse ) because we has established civil society, democracy and manufacturing before mineral exports came to be so dominant.
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 10:25 pm
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/other/giant-australian-manufacturer-goes-bust-with-700-jobs-at-risk/ar-BB1lPyQD?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds
Made in Australia.
================================================
Owned by China. Qenos stopped being Australian under the Howard Government. When they allowed it to be bought by a Chinese company. Which is now closing it down and the product to be sourced from China instead. As the Chinese company is going to make more money selling off the real estate it is on instead. Bloody Liberals selling out the country again, we are still paying now for Howard Government dumb decisions. Though giving away LNG to China on long term dirt cheap contracts was about their worst
”Newspoll over the years has been trending towards gradual movements. Its more trend over time up or down that matters. Sharp movements dont seem to happen often nowadays.”
With a sample size of just 1236, the margin of error is 3%. I think that their usual size is closer to 2,000 (MOE ~ 2%). It should be jumping 1-2% from poll to poll, occasionally more.
Steve777
Why do you think its not doing that?
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 10:20 pm
nadia88 what are the State level swings in your opinion?
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Polling for the ALP in NSW/QLD & WA is not the best. In QLD, in particular, it is appalling. In WA, the LNP started to track ahead of the ALP around Feb.7
Polling for the ALP in VIC & SA is holding up well.
I refer to the “Poll data” tab on WB’s bludgertrack.
As for your actual Q of state level swings… well.
* Living in QLD, I can confidently say that the state ALP is heading for a smashing coming Oct.
* Having relatives in Darwin, I suspect that the Territory Gov’t will be smashed in August.
Federal Implications:
* Nil really. QLD is at the high tide mark for the LNP. They might pick up a seat at a Fed election (say Ryan), but realistically all they will do is increase their existing current margins.
* Per NT. Only 2 seats up for grabs. I’d say federally the LNP (ie: CLP) will pick up Solomon.
* Per NSW – The Parramatta/Penrith & Rooty Hill area seems to determine who governs this country, cycle after cycle. Don’t know enough about NSW to be honest. I think people in NSW are settled with Mr Minns and there will be no Federal blowback. I would say NSW will be a nil-all change at the next Federal election, except Fowler may return to the ALP and there will be a Teal seat in the inner North abolished.
* Victoria: Well the LNP need to do some work down there. There have been two federal by-election’s in the state this term, and the Libs didn’t win either. The state leader is embroiled in legal disputes with one of his party member’s. I suppose Victorians regard the state Libs as a clown show. From memory the last time they were in power they tipped out the leader half way through. Complete circus and I would say they have written themselves off for quite some time. The new Premier, Jacinta Allen, comes across as quite sensible. I think in Victoria, the LNP are at the bottom of the cycle with only 10 out of 39 seats held. They must, surely, improve from there, but who knows.
Labor led 57-43 into 51-49.
Same Ministers and failing policies in place so unless a change there then the same result will continue labors vote will continue to shrink .
And the players from both sides are in the tunnel belting the bejesus out of each other oblivious to the judiciary decision on this and other matters at a time to be decided.
Re Steve Davis @10:45. ”Steve777
Why do you think its not doing that?”
I don’t know. We had this in the lead-up to the 2019, when all polls seemed to converge on Labor 51-49. Some sort of smoothing? Herding?
https://armariuminterreta.com/2021/03/29/causes-of-the-2019-australian-polling-failure/
CLP is much more likely to pick up Lingiari than Solomon.
Coalition will probably win Gilmore and Robertson in NSW, and Lyons in Tasmania.
Bradfield and Wannon may go Teal.
Labor have 78 seats and the Greens have 4. Labor/Greens/Wilkie are on 83 combined so if they lose 7 or fewer seats nett between them the Coalition cannot mathematically form govt
Labor 33% primary vote is the opinion polling
average since after the 2022 federal election
Lib/Nat’s are struggling to pickup the votes they need 38% is the peak for them
I’m still tipping, the lib/nats will be lucky to get more than 55seats
‘The Albanese government was considering tweaks to stage-three tax cuts as early as one month after being elected, despite repeatedly stating its position hadn’t changed, new documents reveal.’
Plainly the PB partisans didn’t get that memo at the time. 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/22/labor-considered-altering-stage-three-tax-cuts-just-after-coming-to-power-foi-battle-reveals
Coalition will probably win Gilmore and Robertson in NSW, and Lyons in Tasmania.
You have absolutely no clue about my seat, Melbourne Mammoth, and probably no clue about the others either. These are things you just hope will come true. Admit it.
Oliver Sutton,
Timing is everything in politics. The window of opportunity opens and you climb through it. So, whilst, and of course, going on their original opposition to the S3 tax cuts, Labor probably wanted to change them upon winning government, they could not do it without a very good reason, and the cost of living crisis was that reason.
So, at the end of the day I was right to worry about them doing it early on for the sort of principle reasons people like Rex Douglas here espoused. To finagle an election promise they needed a reason as well as the principle of the thing.
Told ya!! Delay, deflect, obfuscate. That’s all this nuclear policy is about. Also, love how suddenly the Nationals are getting coy on the location of nuclear sites. Where did they think these things would be located? Certainly not in the heart of capital cities.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-rift-emerges-over-dutton-s-nuclear-plans-20240421-p5fleo.html
NYT..
Mr. Trump faces 34 felony counts, and up to four years behind bars, but more than just his freedom is at stake. If convicted, he might lose the right to vote, including to cast a ballot for himself. If he were to win back the White House, he would be the first convicted criminal to serve as commander in chief. And the question of how he might serve a prison sentence, should it come to that if he does not receive probation, could throw the country into turmoil.
Certainly is facing a storm over Stormy Daniels
My prediction for 2025 at the moment on current opinion polling
Currently Labor holds 78 seats – 4 = 74 seats + gain 7 seats(Libs, greens, independent) = 81 seats
Currently Lib/nats holds 55 seats + 3 = 58 seats – Loses 8 seats (Labor ,independents) = 50 seats