The Coalition has now chalked up consecutive two-party preferred leads in Roy Morgan for the first time this term, its lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49. The primary votes are little changed, with Labor up half a point to 30%, the Coalition up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706. The Financial Review also published further results from its Freshwater Strategy poll showing 38% support for a longer term for the House of Representatives, with 44% opposed.
Preselection news:
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, is all but certain to win decisive Socialist Left backing to fill Labor’s Victorian Senate vacancy resulting from the death of Linda White in February. However, four further candidates are rated likely to nominate for the factional ballot, though not to win, “to force a party ballot amid frustration over ethnic diversity and union influence”. They are Wesa Chau, director of public policy at Multicultural Leadership Initiative; Pamela Anderson, chief executive of Labor women’s advocacy group Emily’s List; Nadia David, a farmer and criminologist; and Sorina Grasso, deputy mayor of the City of Knox. The party’s national secretary, Paul Erickson, and Victorian Attorney-General Jill Hennessy, have reportedly knocked back approaches to nominate.
• Samantha Ratnam, Victorian Greens leader and member for the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, has announced she will quit state politics to seek preselection for the federal seat of Wills, which Peter Khalil retained for Labor ahead of the Greens by margins of 4.9% in 2016, 8.2% in 2019 and 8.6% in 2022. She faces a rival in the party’s candidate from 2022, Sarah Jefford, but Annika Smethurst of The Age rates Ratnam a “near certainty” in a party ballot for which voting wrapped upon Wednesday. The Age further reports the Greens hope to “unite conservative Muslim voters with young progressives”, it being presumed that the former will be disaffected over the government’s stance on the conflict in Gaza.
• A Liberal preselection last fortnight for the Perth seat of Tangney, which the party will be optimistic of recovering after Sam Lim gained it for Labor with an 11.9% swing in 2022, was won by Mark Wales, SAS veteran, Survivor winner and author of a novel about a future war with China. Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports Wales was a “clear winner” over Howard Ong, an IT consultant, and Sean Ayres, a litigation lawyer and staffer to the previous member for the seat, Ben Morton.
• The Financial Review reports Roanne Knox, former Deloitte consultant and founder of children’s fashion label Chasing Sunshine, will shortly be endorsed by the Liberal state executive as the candidate for Wentworth, where teal independent Allegra Spender defeated now Senator Dave Sharma in 2022. Peter King, who held the seat for a term before being deposed for preselection by Malcolm Turnbull in 2004, was earlier rated as a contender, has ultimately declined to nominate.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports Jess Collins, conservative-aligned Lowy Institute research fellow and unsuccessful candidate for the late Jim Molan’s Senate vacancy in November, will contest the Senate preselection ballot for the next election, potentially posing a threat to Andrew Bragg, a moderate who alienated many in the party by supporting the Indigenous Voice. The other incumbent, centre right-aligned Hollie Hughes, is likely to get the top position.
Boerwar @ #628 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 7:08 pm
You won’t accept simple and verifiable facts concerning the causes of coral bleaching. I call that stupidity. What would you call it?
Kevin Bonham: ResolvePM ALP 30 L-NP 36 Green 13 ON 5 UAP 2 IND 11 other 3.
My 2PP estimate (last election prefs) 52.1 to ALP (-1.5)
Resolve tended to get much stronger readings for Labor than other polls but that trend has abated sharply this year (still slightly better on 2PP estimates).
FUBAR says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:41 pm
TPOF says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:09 pm
Both Reynolds and Browns health were negatively impacted and their careers destroyed by the false accusations. They don’t get a $2.4 million payout for it.
____________________________________________
They weren’t raped in their workplace. But you seem to think that rape is no big deal compared to the hurt feelings of a fairly useless Liberal Minister. Brown is not suing anyone as far as I know.
nadia88 says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:33 pm
Steve777says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:59 pm
”I’ll let someone else to the 2PP split”
It’s close to 50-50.
30 + 11 (Green) + 2 (RWNJ) + 7 (other)
EDIT.
Another calculation.
Left —> 30 + 13 = 43
Right -> 36 + 7 = 43
(Preference ‘leakage’ assumed to cancel)
Split 14% “Someone Else” 50:50
—> 50-50 2PP
==================
Thnks Steve, jeepers your good on this, and spot on with the 50-50 calc.
This is getting tight. The budget has to come up with some goodies
———————-
It may look tight , but on 2025 federal election day
Lib/nats may get less seats than they did on 2022 federal election day
They need a lot more than 36/37% in Lib/nats combined primary vote
‘Player One says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:33 pm
Boerwar @ #628 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 7:08 pm
Fact: personal abuse does not help.
You won’t accept simple and verifiable facts concerning the causes of coral bleaching. I call that stupidity. What would you call it?’
———————–
Fact: personal abuse is not helping.
Fact: the Reef is being killed with climate change as the main driver.
Fact: burning fossil fuels drives climate change.
Fact: tourism is a major burner of fossil fuels.
Now, the last fact might change eventually. But the current fact is that tourism is a major global contributor to CO2 emissions.
Fact: on current trends the Reef is finished.
sprocket_says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:02 pm
Spotted at the SCG today with 35,000 others watching the Swannies….
===================================================
Not at all Sprocket. “Heading for victory” – 30% primary is not heading for victory. This is not good at all. We should have a Newspoll in 2 hrs time so maybe the primary will be different. My guess it will be 31% primary for the ALP, but that’s not important.
Who is the person Mr & Mrs Albanese are with – is it Senator Pocock & was there clapping or booing. Pocock is a union (rugby) great but I don’t think he’s much chop as a Senator.
sprocket_ @ #623 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 7:02 pm
Brilliant!
Personally I think Reynolds should drop the claim as well given everything Higgins has suffered.
Fubar knows damn well that there is a contradiction in what Reynolds says about when she knew about the rape.
Typical right winger, lie, deflect, and try to change the subject.
davidwh @ #659 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 7:40 pm
Yes, it looks very mean spirited and unnecessarily retributive.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:21 pm
Reynolds was suggesting Brown advise the AFP not Higgins. My guess to protect the government against any claims of a cover up. Ass-protecting. Of course that would be highly inappropriate given no allegation of sexual assault had been made at that time.
As Brown pointed out that was Higgin’s right to decide.
===================================================
According to what Reynolds said under oath in the ACT court:
“Former defence minister Linda Reynolds has told the ACT Supreme Court that she did not know of a sexual assault allegation when she called Brittany Higgins to her office on April 1, 2019, to discuss a later night security incident.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/courts-law/brittany-higgins-bruce-lehrmann-rape-trial-enters-its-final-days/news-story/d582e42ad705057491677435bc238298
So if only thing Reynolds supposedly knew had occurred up to 1st of April was a security breach. What was she asking Brown to report on her behalf to AFP that involved Higgins’ consent on the 29th of March?. As reporting a security breach would not have required Higgins’ consent in anyway as far as i can see.
You can see the campaign ad already if Labor is dumb enough to keep Albo – just run a photo reel of Albo having a good time, the tennis, the AFL, wine tasting , travelling , Albo DJing, Albo in his T shirt in his office with a slogan along the lines of “time for a working PM”
FUBAR
If as you say both Higgins and Reynolds have suffered from impacts on their own mental health through the rape saga, that hardly suggests another bruising court case would be a good idea for either. I said I thought hte olive branch from Higgins was wise and I said and remain of the view that Reynolds would be wise to accept it. (NB this does not mean their suffering was in any way equal).
Some will continue to argue this issue for years. Most will move on. Another Fed Court case won’t shift the opinions of any who have not already shifted them.
I remain of the view that the Justice Lee verdict largely exonerated Reynolds of a coverup. That is a good time to finish the story from Reynold’s viewpoint.
“Quit while you are ahead”.
You will note I have not talked about coverups here since the Justice Lee verdict.
If Reynolds continues from this point she will only look vindictive and her public standing will end up worse IMO.
Some in the Liberal Party may be encouraging Reynolds to continue in hopes of further distancing the Morrison Omnishambles from the rape committed by one of its staffers. If so these people are clearly concerned only with the Liberal Party’s political standing and clearly don’t care about Higgins’ or Reynolds’ welfare.
Entropy Brown and Reynolds knew on the 29th that Higgins was found in Reynolds office partly naked and that on the 28th Higgins said to Brown “he was on top of me” but in a casual way. But and this is important Higgins had made no allegations at this time.
So the incident was a female staff member saying in a casual way that a male staff member was on top of me.
Lars Von Trier
Anthony Albanese will be the prime minister in a 2nd term increased majority
There has been no electoral indication Labor is heading towards minority
Boerwar @ #655 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 7:37 pm
Fact: Shutting down tourism would not save the reef.
Fact: Eliminating the burning of fossil fuels would> save the reef.
I think we can leave it there.
Minor issue Lars, the good people can run ads about Dutton’s mob covering up a rape in order to enhance their electoral prospects.
Fact: the Reef is being killed with climate change as the main driver.
Fact: burning fossil fuels drives climate change.
Fact: tourism is a major burner of fossil fuels.
Now, the last fact might change eventually.
But the current fact is that tourism is a major global contributor to CO2 emissions.
Fact: on current trends the Reef is finished.
Fact: tourism contributes something like 8% of the world’s CO2 emissions.
Fact: to the extent that current consumption of tourism contributes to CO2 emissions, to that extent tourism is contributing to destroying to destroying the Reef.
I doubt arguing about what Reynold knew or did not know and when she knew or did not know here is actually going to affect the outcome of the court case.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:49 pm
Entropy Brown and Reynolds knew on the 29th that Higgins was found in Reynolds office partly naked and that on the 28th Higgins said to Brown “he was on top of me” but in a casual way. But and this is important Higgins had made no allegations at this time.
So the incident was a female staff member saying in a casual way that a male staff member was on top of me.
=====================================================
Which doesn’t fit with Reynolds statement to ACT court under oath though. Which she totally denied knowing that before the meeting on the 1st of April. When those specific allegation were asked of her by Drumgold. If what you claim is true, Reynolds is in contempt of court here.
“Prosecutor Shane Drumgold suggested to Senator Reynolds that she did know that Ms Higgins had told Ms Brown she had woken up to find Mr Lehrmann “on top of her” before she had the meeting.
Senator Reynolds rejected this assertion.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/courts-law/brittany-higgins-bruce-lehrmann-rape-trial-enters-its-final-days/news-story/d582e42ad705057491677435bc238298
‘B. S. Fairman says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:58 pm
I doubt arguing about what Reynold knew or did not know and when she knew or did not know here is actually going to affect the outcome of the court case.’
———————————–
Sure. Arguing about it on Bludger won’t make a stitch of difference.
”
Socratessays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:46 pm
FUBAR
If as you say both Higgins and Reynolds have suffered from impacts on their own mental health through the rape saga, that hardly suggests another bruising court case would be a good idea for either.
……….
……
“I remain of the view that the Justice Lee verdict largely exonerated Reynolds of a coverup. That is a good time to finish the story from Reynold’s viewpoint.
“Quit while you are ahead”.
You will note I have not talked about coverups here since the Justice Lee verdict.”
”
Having escaped the lion’s den is she going for her hat?
@P1:
“ Fact: Eliminating the burning of fossil fuels would> save the reef.”
Two observations can be made about this statement>
Firstly, P1 doesn’t understand the science she ‘champions’. Secondly, the melancholy truth is the the GBR – at least as it has functioned for probably the whole of the Holocene have been irrevocably destroyed by the human activity of especially the past 70 or so years. The baked in carbon emissions of the past 250 years have only played a small (but admittedly increasingly significant) part in that. however, even if this human activity ceased tomorrow (including C02 emissions), the effect of the baked in emissions are so profound that there is no turning back. The reef is fucked.
I reckon Albo will end up with about 1.1- 1.2 units of Abbott time.
After the Budget with an election in August. The budget is really the last chance saloon for Albo. Even the biggest Dubbo can work out a sub 30 primary is disaster.
@Boer:
“ Fact: the Reef is being killed with climate change as the main driver.”
___
The are actually two statements of fact in that sentence. The first one is true. The second probably isn’t.
The sooner the tourism industry weans itself off CO2 emissions the better.
As far as I can tell global CO2 emissions from tourism are actually increasing. Perhaps that is still only a Covid rebound. Perhaps not.
But I stand to be corrected on that.
Perhaps the tourism industry will launch a major climate 200 campaign with a view to unseating Coalition members who are chain draggers on climate action?
I suspect that at least part of the problem is that the tourism industry is infested with Coalition supporters.
UK voting intention via OpiniumResearch, 19 Apr
LAB: 41% (-) CON: 25% (-) REF: 13% (+2) LDEM: 10% (-) GRN: 7% (-1)
“Forgotten his name but he’s a swans official and former swans player.”
Tom Harley is the Swans CEO, and was a premiership captain with Geelong Cats. He never played for the Swans.
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:03 pm
@Boer:
“ Fact: the Reef is being killed with climate change as the main driver.”
___
The are actually two statements of fact in that sentence. The first one is true. The second probably isn’t.’
—————–
I would be interested to know your thinking on that view.
What are you going to do L’arse when Albo returns Labor to a second term of majority government? Should we he worried? Is Seppuku on the cards?
Albo’s problem is he is governing for the world he wants to govern and is coming off as stale but its not terminal at this stage.
Lars Von Trier
Refuses to answer why the Federal Lib/nats combined primary vote is not moving much from 36/37%
Soharsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:05 pm
“Forgotten his name but he’s a swans official and former swans player.”
Tom Harley is the Swans CEO, and was a premiership captain with Geelong Cats. He never played for the Swans.
———————–
Thanks.
Entropy I am just reporting on Brown’s testimony which differs in a significant manner than Drumgold’s question wording. In Brown’s testimony there is no reference to Higgins waking up to find … The comment by Higgins as reported by Brown was more casual.
Having said that, and reviewing Brown’s testimony more closely I can’t see that Brown even advised Reynolds of the comment.
Negotiation and possible settlement of a defo action by way of public statements is an interesting turn.
“ I would be interested to know your thinking on that view.”
The vast GBF has been poisoned by the deforestation of the coastal escarpment and the human activities that have replaced the natural woodlands that form a vital part of the GBR ecosystem. The GBR is a unique tropical coral reef & particularly vulnerable to that change. Global heating is ‘merely’ the hammer blow that will end up killing an already mortally wounded ecosystem.
Ven
“ Having escaped the lion’s den is she going for her hat?”
Precisely my point. The narrow scope of the defo case probably suited Reynolds’ interests. All the points others have raised here tonight plus more will surely be raised if there is a new court case with a new scope.
I heard today that there are squatter group(s) in the nation’s capital who are moving into vacant houses. Apparently, free of tenancy laws and bonds, the groups lack a smidge of TLC for their new habitations.
I don’t know if all that is true but it does raise a question about the homeless stats.
Is a squatter technically still ‘homeless’?
nadia88 at 3.01 pm and 2.42 pm
[“As QLD is at the high water mark for the LNP, surely Victoria (with 25 ALP divisions out of 39) is also at the high water mark for the ALP. I may be wrong but I just can’t see the ALP picking up any more LNP seats in VIC.”]
Before the redistribution is finalised (which clearly discounts any election in August, and the Qld poll makes any federal election in 2024 very unlikely), all that can be discussed are general guestimates.
Apart from polling, the main evidence is the Dunkley by-election. According to Antony Green, about 1% of the 3.5% swing to the Libs was probably due to the ballot draw. See:
https://antonygreen.com.au/final-wrap-of-the-dunkley-by-election/
The Libs got a poor result historically in conditions that were widely presumed to favour them. Based on that evidence, it would be wrong to presume the Libs could not lose Deakin, Menzies or Monash, depending partly on what happens with the redistribution.
Twenty years ago I knew an astute historian at Deakin Uni who had a three strikes theory about the plodding way in which much of the electorate comes to terms gradually with government failures. It was partly a story of averages (Fraser won three elections, Hawke/Keating five, and Howard had, at that stage, before 2004, won three). His main point was that it would be very unusual for a first term government to lose (even Howard, whose polling was worse after 18 months than Albo’s, scrapped home in 1998). See:
The main historical differences are 1) that Labor has lost significant primary support to the Greens, most of which returns via preferences, and 2) the Libs lost many old blue-ribbon seats to the Teals. Labor has worked out how to mitigate its loss, but there is no sign of the Libs yet mitigating theirs.
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:10 pm
“ I would be interested to know your thinking on that view.”
The vast GBF has been poisoned by the deforestation of the coastal escarpment and the human activities that have replaced the natural woodlands that form a vital part of the GBR ecosystem. The GBR is a unique tropical coral reef & particularly vulnerable to that change. Global heating is ‘merely’ the hammer blow that will end up killing an already mortally wounded ecosystem.’
—————————————-
We may have to agree to differ about the relativities in that statement.
Hi Dr Doolittle nice to see you back.
”
Scottsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:49 pm
Lars Von Trier
Anthony Albanese will be the prime minister in a 2nd term increased majority
There has been no electoral indication Labor is heading towards minority
”
Scott
I don’t know how future polling will be but from current polling Labor is heading towards minority or even worse a L-NP minority.
I reckon Newspoll has Labor primary at 28% and Coalition at 39%
Fair comment from Kos Samaras
————
Latest Resolve national poll. The trend continues and it’s not Labor friend atm. Newspoll coming up soon and our Redbridge national compass results next month.
State break downs are bad for Labor too. No room for mistakes in Vic and NSW.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:58 pm
I doubt arguing about what Reynold knew or did not know and when she knew or did not know here is actually going to affect the outcome of the court case.
============================================================
Really, Reynolds has made certain statement under oath in an ACT court case. These statements can be examined again under oath if she goes to court in a defamation proceedings. She has a choice of sticking to some statements that look very dodgy. Which will go to her credibility or admitting she previously lied under oath and risk contempt of court charges being filed against her by the ACT. They can still file contempt of court charges without her admitting to them but much easier if if person has admitted to them. Then it is just a slam dunk prosecution, if the ACT decides to do it.
Overall it just shows what dangers Reynolds could face if she returns to collect her hat.
I think we’re on NewspollWatch tonight. There hasn’t been one for a while.
Election will not before the redistributions are done and that won’t be until end of October. Otherwise, there is the mini-redistribution and that is not favourable.
Most likely the election will be in March 2025. It will either have to be then or the 2025/26 budget will have to be brought forward to March so the election can be in May.
Plus Easter Sunday falls on April 20 in 2025. That makes the following week at strange 3 day week with ANZAC day where a lot people will take a extended holiday. It will probably best to avoid having the campaign going over that period.
That is why I am thinking that it will be in March or April 5.
Ven says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:18 pm
Scott
I don’t know how future polling will be but from current polling Labor is heading towards minority or even worse a L-NP minority.
———————————-
disagree on this
MelbourneMammoth says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:18 pm
I reckon Newspoll has Labor primary at 28% and Coalition at 39%
————
I would go for Labor 33% , Lib/nats combined primary vote 36%
Lars at 8.02 pm
[“After the Budget with an election in August.”]
What happened the last time a first-term Labor government, albeit one in decapitation mode, went early in August? Gillard nearly lost. Stephen Smith among others said that election should have been later.
There will be no election in August, or later this year. The Qld election on 26 October ensures that.
The other difference historically is that all Howard’s big come-backs happened in spring, although in 1998 and 2001 he did start picking up marginally in autumn. Albo doesn’t have a photo of Howard in his office, but he won’t be slow in pointing any doubters in the Caucus to the historical comparisons.