Freshwater Strategy: 50-50 (open thread)

Level pegging from the Financial Review’s Freshwater Strategy poll, which records only very slight changes on last month.

Newspoll has not reported according to the three-week schedule it usually observes, but the Financial Review fills the void with the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll. This records a tie on two-party preferred after a 51-49 result in favour of Labor last time, but it’s based on only the slightest changes on the primary vote, with Labor steady on 31%, the Coalition up one on 40% and the Greens down one on 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 45%, Peter Dutton is up two to 32% and down two to 41%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 47-38 to 45-39. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1055.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,227 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. “Albanese has given Gina Rinehart, worth $36billion, over $1billion of our taxes for her two mines – Arafura Rare Earth and Liontown Resources.”
    ===================================================

    What evidence is there to support the statement that Gina Rinehart owns Arafura Rare Earth and Liontown Resources?. Last time i saw they were both publicly listed ASX companies. Which Gina had a 10% and 20% shareholding in respectively. Which hardly can be considered ownership though.

    Quote: “You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.”

  2. Fossil fuel CO2 was originally in the atmosphere, but it was locked up in plants for decades or centuries then underground for millions of years.

  3. Albo:

    “Students coming here are an important source of economic income,” he told Melbourne radio 3AW. “It can also be a good thing for our neighbours, to get the value of an Australian education.

    China isn’t our neighbour, either is Pakistan or India, and they’ve got Universities up the Wazoo anyway.
    500,000 visa entrants in 12 months, that’s an enormous amount of extra water through the sewage system year on year, yet we’re talking about firing up the Desal Plants and killing all the Cattle and Sheep so we don’t run out?
    Madness.

  4. Entropy @ #2204 Friday, April 19th, 2024 – 7:42 pm

    “Albanese has given Gina Rinehart, worth $36billion, over $1billion of our taxes for her two mines – Arafura Rare Earth and Liontown Resources.”
    ===================================================

    What evidence is there to support the statement that Gina Rinehart owns Arafura Rare Earth and Liontown Resources?. Last time i saw they were both publicly listed ASX companies. Which Gina had a 10% and 20% shareholding in respectively. Which hardly can be considered ownership though.

    Quote: “You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.”

    Thanks, Entropy. It’s tiring fact-checking Irene all the time.

  5. A surge of international students and temporary workers pushed net arrivals into the country to a record of 548,000 in the year to September 2023.
    _____________________
    Record holders.
    Congratulations Labor.
    Surely that has to make one of Boerwars lists. No same old, same old there with the immigration #’s

  6. The Badthinker is well named.

    Timber, bamboo and other solid plant matter is mostly cellulose. Cellulose is the most abundant organic compound on earth, with the chemical formula (C6H10O5)n . It is a polymeric compound comprising very long chains (the n) of that basic building block. Those with a functioning brain, and some education, will notice that the ratio of hydrogen to carbon is 10:6
    Bad Thinker may like to explain how the decomposition of this compound in the presence of atmospheric oxygen results in the emission of CH4 (methane), in which the ratio of hydrogen to carbon is 4:1.

    He should publish his experimental design and results, as it will be, without doubt, an absolute sensation. To date, the only known way in which methane has been shown to be produced when cellulose decays is when the decomposition takes place anaerobically (when shut off from the atmosphere) in, for instance, a ruminant animal’s rumen (eg fermentation of cellulose by a rumen anaerobic fungus in the presence of Methanobrevibacter sp. strain RA1 and Methanosarcina barkeri strain 227) or deep underground.

    Go for it, Badthunk!

  7. Taylormade @ #2208 Friday, April 19th, 2024 – 8:05 pm

    A surge of international students and temporary workers pushed net arrivals into the country to a record of 548,000 in the year to September 2023.
    _____________________
    Record holders.
    Congratulations Labor.
    Surely that has to make one of Boerwars lists. No same old, same old there with immigration #’s

    *cough* Post Pandemic surge. Context isn’t your strong point, is it, Taylormade? Actually, it’s not many Liberal’s strong point.

  8. yabbasays:
    To date, the only known way in which methane has been shown to be produced when cellulose decays is when the decomposition takes place anaerobically …
    Such as in Marshes, Swamps and Bogs.
    Of which there will be no shortage after the Plant eaters are exterminated for the crime of emitting Methane.
    It’s Grade 8 Biology, Professor.
    Look it up.

  9. The Age 19/04
    Ethnically diverse Australians are used by Labor powerbrokers to stack branches but are not supported for parliamentary spots, an aspiring politician claimed.
    As Labor’s dominant Left faction examines quotas to boost its paltry number of multicultural MPs, sections of the faction are in revolt over a backroom deal to anoint a union leader to fill a prized Senate position.
    “But when it comes to candidate selection, ethnically diverse members haven’t been nurtured,” she said, noting the Victorian Left had not selected a multicultural federal MP for 23 years.
    _____________________
    23 years is a long time.
    It has to be discrimination. No other word for it.
    I wonder if Wong would have made it to the Senate if she didn’t have a Union background.
    Probably not.

  10. Taylormade,
    Tell us how many ethnically diverse MPs are in the federal Coalition ranks? They can’t even get to gender equity!

    Also, the complaint of one disgruntled misfit, does not equate to a truth. One swallow doth not a summer make.

    Especially when you actually take a look at the gender and ethnic diversity of the MPs who already sit on the Labor side of federal parliament.

    Ergo, that story is a beat up. No wonder you were jazzed to quote from a story that didn’t come from The Hun for once. 😐

  11. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, April 19, 2024 at 7:49 pm
    Albo:

    “Students coming here are an important source of economic income,” he told Melbourne radio 3AW. “It can also be a good thing for our neighbours, to get the value of an Australian education.

    China isn’t our neighbour, either is Pakistan or India, and they’ve got Universities up the Wazoo anyway.
    500,000 visa entrants in 12 months, that’s an enormous amount of extra water through the sewage system year on year, yet we’re talking about firing up the Desal Plants and killing all the Cattle and Sheep so we don’t run out?
    Madness.
    ====================================================

    Pretty sure a similar number of students from these countries. Where coming under the Abbott, Turnbull and pre-Covid Morrison Governments. Having you got any evidence at all that shows this wasn’t the case?.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/430276/number-of-chinese-students-in-australia-by-education-sector/

  12. Correction to earlier post there was 154467 Chinese international students studying in Australia in 2023. While 212264 Chinese International students were studying here in 2019 under the Morrison Government. So obviously numbers were much higher under the LNP and not around the same as my earlier post implied.

    Other correction to earlier post: Were not Where.

  13. Badthinker @ #1907 Friday, April 19th, 2024 – 8:29 pm

    yabbasays:
    To date, the only known way in which methane has been shown to be produced when cellulose decays is when the decomposition takes place anaerobically …
    Such as in Marshes, Swamps and Bogs.
    Of which there will be no shortage after the Plant eaters are exterminated for the crime of emitting Methane.
    It’s Grade 8 Biology, Professor.
    Look it up.

    What proportion of the world’s forests and other treed, bambooed and grassed areas are marshes, swamps and bogs, you dipstick? You are well named. Look it up, lamebrain. ( A clue, it’s around 6% of the land surface). Even in those areas the majority of decomposition takes place in contact with an overwhelming concentration of oxygen, from, guess what, the air. Funnily enough, breezes also occur in marshes, and lots of oxygen is dissolved in water (hence, fish). It may also occur to you that the anaerobic decomposition of vegetable matter that does occur there has been occurring as background continuously, throughout the past, and so, can have no appreciable effect on exacerbating global warming.

    Quit while you are behind Badthunk. You will only make a worse fool of yourself.

  14. The New South Wales Liberal party has expelled state MP Taylor Martin as a result of an investigation into text messages he sent to a woman with whom he was in a relationship. Martin, who has been a member of the NSW upper house since 2017, has sat outside of the Liberal party room since July last year after the party launched the investigation.
    At the time, Martin unreservedly apologised for what he called “heated words” during an “undignified breakup”. The text messages were allegedly sent by Martin to a woman he was in a relationship with, who wishes to remain anonymous. In a statement on Friday, the NSW Liberal party state director, Richard Shields, said a report on the investigation had been received and Martin would be expelled as a result. “On the basis of the report’s findings the NSW Liberal party state director has acted quickly and decisively, ratified by the state executive, to expel Mr Martin as a member of the NSW division,” Shields said.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/19/nsw-liberal-party-expels-state-mp-taylor-martin-over-undignified-breakup-texts

  15. Friday night, and L’Arse, as on every night, is desperately trying to get a bite from someone…..anyone. Piss off, jerk. Happy now?

  16. Lars Von Triersays:
    Friday, April 19, 2024 at 9:26 pm
    Friday night and yabba is winning friends and influencing people as usual.
    =========================================================

    He is at least contributing to a discussion. Something maybe you could try too?.

  17. Lars Von Trier says:
    Friday, April 19, 2024 at 9:36 pm
    By calling people “dipstick”? Is that what passes for discussion now?

    ___________________________________

    It’s been what passes for discussion for a long time. I was called a dickhead today. That’s the standard here.

  18. MONEYHow Debt-to-GDP Ratios Have Changed Since 2000

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-debt-to-gdp-ratios-have-changed-since-2000/

    To gain perspective on this long-term trend, we’ve visualized the debt-to-GDP ratios of advanced economies, as of 2000 and 2024 (estimated). All figures were sourced from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook.

    Countries with the Biggest Increases
    Japan (+116 pp), Singapore (+86 pp), and the U.S. (+71 pp) have grown their debt as a percentage of GDP the most since the year 2000.

  19. Lars Von Triersays:
    Friday, April 19, 2024 at 9:36 pm
    By calling people “dipstick”? Is that what passes for discussion now?
    ===================================================

    Yabba and Badthinker were having a relatively heated discussion on methane. If you removed the abuse there was still an underlying rational discussion going on there. Unlike your recent posts, if we remove the goading there was nothing else. I don’t know about “dipstick”, i thought those people doing more sophisticated trolling on here . Made up dubious names for people, like “General Anemi”.

  20. Entropy @ #2221 Friday, April 19th, 2024 – 9:32 pm

    Lars Von Triersays:
    Friday, April 19, 2024 at 9:26 pm
    Friday night and yabba is winning friends and influencing people as usual.
    =========================================================

    He is at least contributing to a discussion. Something maybe you could try too?.

    That would involve Lars Von trier going out of character. It has been done before but it always weirds people out.

  21. Holdenhillbilly @ #2218 Friday, April 19th, 2024 – 9:22 pm

    The New South Wales Liberal party has expelled state MP Taylor Martin as a result of an investigation into text messages he sent to a woman with whom he was in a relationship. Martin, who has been a member of the NSW upper house since 2017, has sat outside of the Liberal party room since July last year after the party launched the investigation.
    At the time, Martin unreservedly apologised for what he called “heated words” during an “undignified breakup”. The text messages were allegedly sent by Martin to a woman he was in a relationship with, who wishes to remain anonymous. In a statement on Friday, the NSW Liberal party state director, Richard Shields, said a report on the investigation had been received and Martin would be expelled as a result. “On the basis of the report’s findings the NSW Liberal party state director has acted quickly and decisively, ratified by the state executive, to expel Mr Martin as a member of the NSW division,” Shields said.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/apr/19/nsw-liberal-party-expels-state-mp-taylor-martin-over-undignified-breakup-texts

    That woman, who wishes to remain anonymous, is not anonymous at all, because, when the story broke she was clearly identified as Lucy Wicks, the goody-two-shoes, former Member for Robertson, who is only wishing to remain anonymous now because she is counting on people in this electorate having the memories of goldfish, as the rumour is that she wants to run again in the upcoming federal election for the Liberal Party.

    Good luck with that subterfuge, Lucy, because Labor will make sure everyone remembers who you really are.

  22. The US is going to find it difficult to sustain democracy when the likes of the NYT continue to have such poor quality reporting….

    News and Analysis

    Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan took a startling turn when two jurors were abruptly excused, demonstrating the challenge of picking citizens to determine the fate of a former president.

    There is no analysis just sensationalism.. it is normal for jurors to be challenge & for lots of reasons … it was predicted to take weeks to set a jury… it took 3 days ! that is THE story.

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