Click here for full display of Cook by-election results.
7.33pm. Most booths have reported now on both the primary and two-candidate preferred, and with the Liberal primary vote at over 60% and the two-candidate preferred over 70%, there’s not much to commentate on.
6.53pm. Four booths in on the primary vote and one in on TCP, and my Liberal win probability is as expected now at 100%. The Greens are running a clear second so the AEC got it right on the two-candidate preferred count.
6.43pm. The first result in is 262 formal votes from Miranda South, 57.6% of which have gone to the Liberals. This gets my Liberal win probability to 86%, which you can rest assured will get to 100% with a few more results in.
6.00pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s coverage of the Cook by-election count. The link above is to a page featuring updated results, including full booth details in both tabular and map display (click on the button at the bottom of the page for the latter) and swing-based projections and probability estimates. The main chart displays on the top right are also be shown at the top of this post. A Liberal win here should be a formality, but for what it’s worth, the Australian Electoral Commission will be conducting its indicative two-candidate preferred count between the Liberals and the Greens. This post will offer live commentary as the results come through, the first of which I imagine will be in a bit before 7pm.
ALP at 65.6%? Your link directs to Dunkley 😀
I’m praying to Dog for a Green win.
If the Federal Liberal party primary vote is lower than Morrison got , Peter Dutton will be sweating its not lower than 50%
I cant wait for the LNP to crow about winning a safe seat and claim that Albo based solely on that result; also suckers bet Scott they downplay it.
MABWM @ #2 Saturday, April 13th, 2024 – 6:09 pm
You’ll be on your knees a long time.
Big primary vote swing to Simon Kennedy, 13%.
Pretty much a meaningless result with no Labor or high profile third party candidate running.
‘Democracy Sausage says:
Saturday, April 13, 2024 at 7:00 pm
Big primary vote swing to Simon Kennedy, 13%.’
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…at 7.00pm. At 7.09 pm it was back to 7.4%.
Looking at those primaries so far it looks like half of Labor voters voted for the Lib …?
Rex Douglas
Don’k know about that , One nation and UAP combined had close to 10,000 votes, at the 2022 federal election , similar to Dunkley
Liberal party picking up One nation and UAP
Kevin Bonham predicting this could be a record 2pp result at a federal by-election, if not very close. Reports of the Liberal Party’s demise have been well and truly exaggerated!
You make a good point Scott
Seems William has called it.
As I expected, most of the voters in Cook aren’t very intelligent.
“and with the Liberal primary vote at over 60% and the two-candidate preferred over 70%, there’s not much to commentate on.”
Except the abject stupidity of the majority of voters in Cook. 🙁
Federal lib/nats found their electorate for their nuclear energy thought bubble
#DuttMentum
How’s that working for you Scott?
What do you think Dutton should do now?
Not really an area that would vote Green in the absent of the ALP. There wasn’t even a pseudo ALP candidate or a local independent.
Given that it had been telegraphed for a long time I am surprised that there was not any attempt to present a choice.
FUBAR
Dutton if he remains leader , will continue to make gaffes and then disappear , but it will not help the federal lib/nats in the general federal election , Non Lib/nats party voters are not still not voting for them
Scott – you never disappoint.
I really wish I could have whatever it is that you are on.
So Cook now has Simon from Consulting after the retirement of Scotty fro Marketing. Bennelong rejected him good reason.
Flowers for…
Biggles cousin, Here come the Camels!
Dutton doing well as leader labor was leading 57-43 now struggling to stay in front.
Consolidating palmers votes and the way labor is going Dutton could well be prime minister.
I know it’s the conventional wisdom that a major party should sit out an unwinnable by-election as the headlines of a swing against or whatever could do more harm than good, but not sure this is really the case any longer. With Labor at around 32% of the primary vote last election they really need to hold onto every first preference voter they can rather than give a free pass to voting for someone else.
We might be starting to see anti Morrison liberal voters returning home.
Given Kennedy himself was ineligible to vote due to being new to the electorate, do we now disregard some of the “learnings” from Fowler 2022?
Completely forgot this was on tonight!
Results are as expected. My congratulations to the Liberals for retaining a super-safe seat against no serious opposition.
If a mere 2 in 10 voters changed their preference the Greens would have one cook. Dog be praised.
At least Kennedy declared himself a Doggies supporter instead of being a fake Sharks supporter like ScoMo.
Simon Earle will probably run for Labor again. I’d love to see him win Miranda in the next NSW State Election though. Miranda sits in the Western part of the Shire where there are more units, and therefore more young people and less rusted on Libs.
By Kat Wong on the Cook by-election. It contains comments by Bonham.
https://citynews.com.au/2024/liberal-candidate-wins-by-election-for-ex-pms-seat/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
‘Mabwm says:
Sunday, April 14, 2024 at 8:27 am
If a mere 2 in 10 voters changed their preference the Greens would have one cook. Dog be praised.’
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This serves to highlight the failure of the Greens in this by election and, more generally, the abject failure of the Greens to form a majority government over the past 35 years.
The Greens vote was 13,649, just 16.6%.
Your 2 in 10 voters would be 16,500.
In other words the Greens failed to appeal to more than 80% of the Cook electorate.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/04/every-child-wins-prize-federal-seats.html
Every Child Wins A Prize: Federal Seats With Swings To All Contestants
Expecting Sydney’s biggest racists to vote for anyone but the far-right was never going to happen.
“The Cook federal by-election result has officially been declared this morning with Simon Kennedy (LIB) officially elected. Please note: Such a quick AEC declaration of a result is unusual & should not be considered the norm.”
https://twitter.com/AusElectoralCom/status/1780043424017846366