Freshwater Strategy: 50-50 (open thread)

Level pegging from the Financial Review’s Freshwater Strategy poll, which records only very slight changes on last month.

Newspoll has not reported according to the three-week schedule it usually observes, but the Financial Review fills the void with the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll. This records a tie on two-party preferred after a 51-49 result in favour of Labor last time, but it’s based on only the slightest changes on the primary vote, with Labor steady on 31%, the Coalition up one on 40% and the Greens down one on 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 45%, Peter Dutton is up two to 32% and down two to 41%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 47-38 to 45-39. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1055.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,227 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 50-50 (open thread)”

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  1. Player One @ #1744 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 9:45 am

    BK @ #1712 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 7:22 am

    Alan Kohler writes that climate change is cost, not benefit, and saying we can win is a lie.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/04/15/alan-kohler-climate-change-lie

    Alan Kohler with a truth bomb …

    All the cheerleading about the benefits of the energy transition shouldn’t disguise the fact that what we’re all trying to do here is prevent a global catastrophe and the way things are going, we might not succeed, or only half succeed.

    It is not a bright new industrial revolution but an attempt to prevent a hellscape caused by the last industrial revolution, the one that gave us oil, coal and gas.

    In short, getting to net zero will be a cost not a benefit, and the less it costs us now, the more likely it will be to fail, so the higher the cost later.

    I understand the political and business impulse to talk it up and tell us that everything’s going to be terrific, with a future made in Australia etc, because if they told us the truth we’d all line up at a bridge or tall building and jump off.

    But in the quiet of our homes, with the TV turned off, we might remember that we’re trying to prevent a catastrophe while getting ready to deal with the risk of failure, or at least we should be.

    Not a bonanza.

    Labor’s “Make Australia Great Again” campaign is an election strategy, not an energy transition policy. It is not likely to help us address climate change. Quite the contrary – it may actually hinder our efforts to do so by diverting money away from where it is needed into futile flag-waving and chest-beating.

    Which will not impress our trading partners – those who are doing the hard yards – one little bit.

    Brought over from the other thread.

    Yes it’s not like we’re discovering anti gravity. But what would you have Labor do? “Hey Australia, here’s a shit sandwich caused by you and your ancestors. Now suck it!”

  2. From the previous thread:

    These poor people are of no interest to governments. $billions are spent on other policies that do not make Australians safer.

    Hmm, who has been in government for the last 20/25 years? Oh sorry, that’s right, the Albanese Labor government should have devoted every waking moment of their first 2 years to finding solutions to every problem that involves the poor and homeless. Problems which the mentally ill still manifest, even if they are controlled by the state 24/7. Yep, let’s restrict their freedoms again and re-open Callan Park and all the other mental health secure facilities!

    So, how about we introduce Facial Recognition and 100% social control policies then. The possibilities are endless! 🙄

  3. There’s no way of knowing but going by the embarrassment of not being able to buy lunch might have been the trigger because when people are poor there is shame attached to not being able to buy basic things like lunch add any mental illness and drugs and the realization he is in a wealthy area might explain it and if he has any incel ideas and has wanted to attack wealth and women with money standout more than men do.

  4. Also from the previous thread:

    C@tmomma (Block)
    Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 9:49 am
    Comment #1746
    Griff @ #1737 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 9:04 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 8:57 am
    Griff @ #1730 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 8:34 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 8:05 am
    Griff @ #1719 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 7:41 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 7:34 am

    Different stages of the pipeline. Research v manufacture.
    If it’s a pipeline it should all be flowing in the same direction, from beginning to end down the pipe.

    _______________

    “That level of integration is sometimes available commercially in-house ie. big Pharma. Otherwise it is a game of Donkey Kong.”

    Or if an effective and efficient government has oversight.

    _______________

    Could you point to other governments that have achieved vertical integration of their pharma pipelines? I applaud the desire, but have yet to see it manifest elsewhere.

    Why do they have to be Pharma pipelines? Nevertheless, ‘Operation Warp Speed’ was successful, much as I hate to give Donald Trump’s Administration credit for anything.

    Also, Anthony Albanese is more of an Infrastructure guy, and Ed Husic and Chris Bowen are seriously smart guys who would be implementing the plan.

    Maybe you just haven’t seen the right government in the right place at the right time in order to get the examples you are looking for?

    To which I will just add that John Kehoe mentioned on Insiders yesterday that the Gillard government’s Carbon Price, worked on by Greg Combet iirc, would have enabled everything the Albanese government want to do now by other means. They just had a vicious Opposition tear it pieces.

  5. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 9:56 am
    From the previous thread:

    These poor people are of no interest to governments. $billions are spent on other policies that do not make Australians safer.

    Hmm, who has been in government for the last 20/25 years? Oh sorry, that’s right, the Albanese Labor government should have devoted every waking moment of their first 2 years to finding solutions to every problem that involves the poor and homeless. Problems which the mentally ill still manifest, even if they are controlled by the state 24/7. Yep, let’s restrict their freedoms again and re-open Callan Park and all the other mental health secure facilities!

    So, how about we introduce Facial Recognition and 100% social control policies then. The possibilities are endless!

    —————
    Another rant.You have a problem. I can read your emotions are rising. I said all governments. Past and present.
    The truth is something you ignore, how governments, including the Albanese one, hates poor people. They are not on their list of any meaningful services.

    Listening to Background Briefing, Julian Morrow, on ABC radio National, yesterday, Sunday.

    Violence to some aboriginal women by their partners has been going on for decades. The man gets drunk and beats his wife and children. And of course the man says his partner made him do it.

    This is true in white communities too. Police often ignore, delay acting on ‘domestic violence ‘ issues. Be assured Albanese or any state government has no interest here either.
    Didn’t need The Voice to tell them.

  6. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 9:56 am
    From the previous thread:

    These poor people are of no interest to governments. $billions are spent on other policies that do not make Australians safer.

    Hmm, who has been in government for the last 20/25 years? Oh sorry, that’s right, the Albanese Labor government should have devoted every waking moment of their first 2 years to finding solutions to every problem that involves the poor and homeless. Problems which the mentally ill still manifest, even if they are controlled by the state 24/7. Yep, let’s restrict their freedoms again and re-open Callan Park and all the other mental health secure facilities!
    ———————–
    The only one problem facing poor people is a lack of money.

  7. Mostly Interested @ #1 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 9:52 am

    Player One @ #1744 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 9:45 am

    Yes it’s not like we’re discovering anti gravity. But what would you have Labor do? “Hey Australia, here’s a shit sandwich caused by you and your ancestors. Now suck it!”

    Here’s an idea – instead of subsidizing new energy transition industries, how about we just stop subsidizing the fossil fuel industry, and instead use those billions to fund renewables projects using the tools we already have – tools which we know can do the job.

    Also, telling the truth about our predicament might be a good idea. How about the government releases the secret report into the security implications of the climate crisis that it is still sitting on?

    One thing I’d bet one thing that report doesn’t say is that spending $368 billion on a handful of nuclear submarines that we will be unable to command, maintain or crew, and which are very likely to end up not being delivered at all, is a really good idea.

  8. ‘Another rant’. ‘You have a problem’. ‘I can read your emotions are rising’.

    ‘Playing the man’ again, Irene. When it suits you there’s no hesitation. When it suits you also to use it about yourself there’s no hesitation. That’s hypocrisy.

    And no, I’m perfectly fine, thanks for asking. 😐

    However, what I do find patently ridiculous is the way you constantly have these unreasonable expectations of the current federal government to either have plans to solve all the problems in Australian society you seek to highlight, tomorrow, or to have already solved them, like yesterday, and because they haven’t then they are fully deserving of your freely doled out, condemnation. Hence, I call out such facile assessments. Nothing personal. Zero getting emotional about it either.

  9. Anyone interested in alternative voices from Israel could do worse than listening to one of the pieces from this week’s Religion and Ethics program from the ABC.

    https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/religionandethicsreport/human-rights-rabbi-calls-for-ceasefire-in-gaza/103686010

    In particular, towards the end, his idea of Israel and Palestine forming an EU-style confederacy.

    Edit: Actually, this piece on an Islamic basis to fight climate change was also pretty interesting I think.

    https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/religionandethicsreport/the-major-islamic-effort-to-fight-climate-change/103686006

  10. The LNP has no intention of releasing planned locations of nuclear reactors. Firstly, it has no actual plans on which to rely, and secondly, it knows there would be a local electorate reaction against it.

    This nuclear stuff is just shit-stirring and a pretense of having a climate policy. There is no policy apart from an ongoing reliance on fossil fuel.

    And the Australian general public know that there is no policy. The only people who believe it are their usual social media drones.

  11. What an anticlimax! I do note that the microphone icon in the bottom left corner of the feed had a line through it to suggest the mic was off. 🙁

  12. Must have been a short judgment or the sound issue was needing to be addressed. I suspect the later. I have never known a judge to not like the sound of his own voice.

  13. Lehrmann certainly does have plenty of friends in high places:

    He has reportedly decamped from North Sydney to the Sydney home of the widow of a former NSW judge.
    (9Fax)

  14. B. S. Fairman @ #24 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 10:25 am

    Must have been a short judgment or the sound issue was needing to be addressed. I suspect the later. I have never known a judge to not like the sound of his own voice.

    Justice Lee was passed a note by one of the staff and quickly read it before shutting proceedings down. Probably about the sound.

  15. Jaqueline Maley was in the courtroom:

    Justice Michael Lee says he will deliver an “oral overview” of his written decision, which is 324 pages long.

    That full judgment will be published on the Federal Court website. He says the litigation might fairly be described as an “omnishambles”.

    The Herald’s Jacqueline Maley is in courtroom one in the Federal Court in Sydney and has heard parts of Justice Michael Lee’s decision that were not broadcast owing to a technical issue.

    “For more than a few this has become a proxy for broader cultural and political conflicts,” Lee said of the defamation litigation.

    “An astute observer would have gleaned from the trial this case is not as straightforward as some might suggest.

    “Only one man and one woman know the truth with certitude,” he said, but they are “two people who are both in diff ways unreliable historians”.

    “People give unreliable evidence for various reasons and distinguishing between a false memory and a lie can be difficult.”
    (9Fax)

  16. I dare say the Murdoch stable has not gone feral on the latest tragedy cos it does not fit their usual agenda.

    Having said that. Ever since the Christchurch atrocity, the right wingers in Australia became much more muted.

  17. I’m starting to think that there’s some fundamental flaw in either democracy, or us as a species, that sees authoritarians elected to leadership. Maybe it’s the times we live in, or the times we have created with modern media and the Internet.

    ‘I was told I’d be killed if I didn’t leave’: Himalayan state is a testing ground for Modi’s nationalism

    The ABC have been running an interesting series on Modi. It’s available on the “If You’re Listening” podcast.

  18. C@t

    I understand that past or current behaviour ought not determine the guilty of someone, but that Lerhmann character has a lot of things going against him in the good behaviour stakes.

  19. It is not a case of “don’t worry, the grownups are in charge” … when it comes to the climate crisis, it is precisely the “grownups” that are the problem …

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/14/grownup-leaders-are-pushing-us-towards-catastrophe-says-former-us-climate-chief

    Political leaders who present themselves as “grownups” while slowing the pace of climate action are pushing the world towards deeper catastrophe, a former US climate chief has warned.

    “We are slowed down by those who think of themselves as grownups and believe decarbonisation at the speed the climate community calls for is unrealistic,” said Todd Stern, who served as a special envoy for climate change under Barack Obama, and helped negotiate the 2015 Paris agreement.

    “They say that we need to slow down, that what is being proposed [in cuts to greenhouse gas emissions] is unrealistic,” he told the Observer. “You see it a lot in the business world too. It’s really hard [to push for more urgency] because those ‘grownups’ have a lot of influence.”

  20. From previous thread

    torchbearersays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 7:42 am
    Regardless of Trump, how anyone could rate the COVID years as ‘good years’ is beyond me.
    People have short memories.

    People in Australia also have short memories. They prefer
    LNP: 40
    ALP: 31
    They prefer Dutton. Period.

  21. Probably the smartest thing to do is reset the computers and the live feed.
    Which is exactly what they have seem to have done!

  22. Griffsays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 9:45 am
    Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 9:25 am
    Well there was CSL …oh

    ___________

    Admittedly manifest was a poor choice of word.

    Would you accept currently exist?
    ======================================================

    CSL is very poor example, as it is a company that thrived under privatisation. The pre-privatisation CSL was a tiny company compared to what it is today. It got to be where it is today by taking over large European companies. Something i doubt could have happened if still Government owned.

  23. From previous thread

    Scepticsays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 7:27 am

    I think this poll shows that 70% of US population are just stupid.

    I say attitude/ thinking of American people doesn’t portend well for Biden come November 2024.

    Yesterday, Lars used a word, which is apt for this FW poll: “Yuk”

  24. Kohler is, of course, 100% correct.

    The last industrial revolution, with abundant cheap energy combined with the rise of consumerism will deliver us a hellscape. As noted previously the arrival of even more abundant and even cheaper energy will, as with previous global shifts in energy sources, pose the risk of adding fuel to the fire of the Anthropocene Extinction Event.

    As I have been saying for some time this is all going to cost us and no-one consumer wants to pay. Tick to Kohler for saying that.

    As I have also been saying, it is not just a matter of replacing ICE static energy and transport with renewables. Despite the political bullshittery by Dutton&Co, this is actually the easy bit.

    The very hard bit is the domestic life stock industries.

    In the paradigm, governments need urgently to start shifting the paradigm that unbridled consumerism is basically individualistic fuck you Jack I am alright and that that paradigm needs to change.

    So the other hard bit is to persuade consumers to draw back from their consumption of discretionary items: tourism, house space, meat, dairy, throw-away clothes.

  25. I imagine that this is not helping to settle the nerves of the principals. Given the preponderance of Liberals among those, isn’t this a chance to sue the Fed Court for undue cruelty?

  26. Boerwar @ #37 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 10:39 am

    As I have also been saying, it is not just a matter of replacing ICE static energy and transport with renewables.

    Actually, yes it is. It is both necessary and sufficient.

    Despite the political bullshittery by Dutton&Co, this is actually the easy bit.

    The very hard bit is the domestic life stock industries.

    Once again you post this utter bollocks, intending to sow doubt, distort, deflect, delay and deny.

    How ‘grownup’ of you.

  27. B. S. Fairmansays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 10:43 am
    Anyone else reckon it could be Russian or Chinese interference with the Federal court feed?
    ==================================================

    Lars?

  28. Player One says Monday, April 15, 2024 at 10:46 am

    Boerwar @ #37 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 10:39 am

    As I have also been saying, it is not just a matter of replacing ICE static energy and transport with renewables.

    Actually, yes it is. It is both necessary and sufficient.

    I’m not sure I agree. I think it’s both necessary, but insufficient. Other sources of greenhouse causing gasses, such as steal and cement production, also need to be addressed.

  29. Entropy- True, it could be a non-state actor like Lars.

    A solution would be to get the ABC camera from outside and broadcast it on ABC 24.

  30. Player One this is EXACTLY the problem with “hyping” the “benefits” of this shift.

    This isn’t like going on a healthy diet where you might need to pay a little extra for good food; we are doing this to be not as bad of as we would be if we don’t do nothing, and the West especially needs to accept that there needs to be a reduction in certain aspects of their life if e are to avoid the worst of the climate catastrophe.

    And the worst part (which certain commentators don’t seem to be able to grasp) is that when all the “hype” fails to arise, and at most we just “prevent” a greater catastrophe, with a reduction in quality of life (even with blatantly outdated concepts like the death of the backyard etc) then we would have had if we had done nothing, then people will be angry that the gov mislead them.

    What we should have been doing from the start was being blunt and honest (which the scientific community amongst others has been for the most part), and the media has failed and should be held to account for what they have done to downplay and obfuscate. Thats not to pretend the voter isnt at fault as well; but then again while the voter doesnt always get it right, they usually get what they deserve…

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