Freshwater Strategy: 50-50 (open thread)

Level pegging from the Financial Review’s Freshwater Strategy poll, which records only very slight changes on last month.

Newspoll has not reported according to the three-week schedule it usually observes, but the Financial Review fills the void with the monthly Freshwater Strategy poll. This records a tie on two-party preferred after a 51-49 result in favour of Labor last time, but it’s based on only the slightest changes on the primary vote, with Labor steady on 31%, the Coalition up one on 40% and the Greens down one on 13%. Anthony Albanese is up a point on approval to 38% and steady on disapproval at 45%, Peter Dutton is up two to 32% and down two to 41%, and Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 47-38 to 45-39. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1055.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,229 thoughts on “Freshwater Strategy: 50-50 (open thread)”

Comments Page 2 of 45
1 2 3 45
  1. GoldenSmaugsays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 9:12 am
    I truly despise Leak, it seems that pretty much every cartoon he draws is done so with an intention to create a false narrative.

    Having said that the Bondi tragedy is yet another example of the decline of Mental Health support in Australia. It’s easy to simply write off the perpetrator as being a coward and an aberration and leave it at that however that would be wrong and a mistake.

    My sister and I have had to manage our mothers schizophrenia since we reached adulthood. It’s been damn near impossible to get the support we needed, when in a psychotic episode the reality someone with schizophrenia is going through is totally detached from actual events around them.

    With the gradual withdrawal of Mental Health support and the nature of the legal system it’s nearly impossible to get intervention until it is too late.

    Until a person undergoing a psychotic episode does something openly the police can’t get involved, luckily for us my sister was an experienced ER nurse so we could usually get the MH crash team involved earlier enough in her episodes but once or twice we couldn’t get the support because she wasn’t openly psychotic enough, the resolution in those cases usually involved an openly public situation days or weeks later with law enforcement involved (who have no clue how to handle these things).

    To be clear, the police officer in Bondi had no choice but to shoot the guy. It was too late to do anything different given the immediacy of the situation.

    As per Channel 9, The police officer in Bondi had to shoot because the perp lunged at her and then tried to administer CPR but to no avail.


  2. Player Onesays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 9:45 am
    BK @ #1712 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 7:22 am

    Alan Kohler writes that climate change is cost, not benefit, and saying we can win is a lie.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/04/15/alan-kohler-climate-change-lie

    Alan Kohler with a truth bomb …

    All the cheerleading about the benefits of the energy transition shouldn’t disguise the fact that what we’re all trying to do here is prevent a global catastrophe and the way things are going, we might not succeed, or only half succeed.

    There is no such thing as half-success when it comes to Climate action result. It is binary result. It is either we succeeded from averting a catastrophe or fail. Imagine “Tipping point” is the Mountain Top. I think we have passed the tipping point. All our efforts from now on will be to go uphill to reach the tipping point again.

  3. Ven, I believe “half success” are stuff like 1.5, 2 etc. These targets acknowledge that the world will warm, its just a matter as to by how much. So maybe more accurate to say degrees of failure….


  4. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 10:26 am
    Lehrmann certainly does have plenty of friends in high places:

    He has reportedly decamped from North Sydney to the Sydney home of the widow of a former NSW judge.
    (9Fax)

    Amazing to put it mildly!
    Seriously though it all looks suspicious.

  5. The Toowoomba case prosecutor will be gleefully copying down all of this evaluation of Lehrmann.

    “And I remind the jury, that a Federal Court judge found Mr Lehrmann to be…”

  6. Cat

    “Justice Lee pings Lehrmann as the one who provided the legally-protected documents to 7.”

    Then this doesn’t end here, because that is a contempt of the ACT court.

  7. “Today’s word of the day is “Omnishambles”.”

    That expression much less common since the end of the Abbott then Morrison Govts ??


  8. Victoriasays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 10:31 am
    I dare say the Murdoch stable has not gone feral on the latest tragedy cos it does not fit their usual agenda.

    Having said that. Ever since the Christchurch atrocity, the right wingers in Australia became much more muted.

    Did you notice Dutton is really quite on this issue other than releasing a statement on Saturday night similar to that of Albanese speech?

    Guys
    Is there a possibility that politicians and other hangers on know through their channels, who the perpetrator was/ is before police release it to public and accordingly tailor their message?

  9. “Ms Brittany Higgins …was also an unsatisfactory witness”. Judge

    Why did labor pay out 2.3 million to the above of taxpayer funds?

    Wow coalition 40 on primary .57-43 up labor now 50-50 ish.Relying on Greens to form a gov is a disaster for labor.

    Another high court decision this week regarding refugees .Another vote killer for federal labor
    incompetents.

  10. ““And I remind the jury, that a Federal Court judge found Mr Lehrmann to be…”’

    That would involve a mistrial and the prosecutor looking for a new career.

  11. Pied Piper

    Labor was acting on behalf of the commonwealth if the Federal Lib/nats retain government it would have payed out the same, (Federal Lib/Nats government should explain the reason for the payout amount )

  12. pied pipersays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 11:20 am
    “Ms Brittany Higgins …was also an unsatisfactory witness”. Judge

    Why did labor pay out 2.3 million to the above of taxpayer funds?

    Wow coalition 40 on primary .57-43 up labor now 50-50 ish.Relying on Greens to form a gov is a disaster for labor.

    Another high court decision this week regarding refugees .
    ———————-
    Lee J questions their evidence but is more damming on Lehrmann.

  13. pied piper says:

    Wow coalition 40 on primary .57-43 up labor now 50-50 ish.Relying on Greens to form a gov is a disaster for labor.

    ————————–
    Lib/nats and thier propaganda media units would not still be that happy they still not in front , 1% increase in a month ,another round of full intense propaganda against Labor, would have expected more

  14. pied piper @ #73 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 11:20 am

    “Ms Brittany Higgins …was also an unsatisfactory witness”. Judge

    Why did labor pay out 2.3 million to the above of taxpayer funds?

    As the judge points out, he believes her misrepresentations weren’t in the same league as Lehrmann’s and no doubt due to her trauma and what that can cause people to remember or not.

  15. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 11:28 am
    pied piper @ #73 Monday, April 15th, 2024 – 11:20 am

    “Ms Brittany Higgins …was also an unsatisfactory witness”. Judge

    Why did labor pay out 2.3 million to the above of taxpayer funds?

    As the judge points out, he believes her misrepresentations weren’t in the same league as Lehrmann’s and no doubt due to her trauma and what that can cause people to remember or not.
    ——————-
    Lee J said his issue with Higgins were post 2021 not from the time of the alleged rape.

  16. Good point by Justice Lee about her iCloud photo record being wiped…except for the bruise photo. And other missing phone data, such as text messages between Brittany Higgins and Bruce Lehrmann.

  17. Iran’s president says that ‘any new adventure against the interests of the Iranian nation will be met with a heavier and regrettable response’.

  18. Socratessays:
    Monday, April 15, 2024 at 11:15 am
    Cat

    “Justice Lee pings Lehrmann as the one who provided the legally-protected documents to 7.”

    Then this doesn’t end here, because that is a contempt of the ACT court.
    =================================================

    Also if it is considered he was payed by Channel 7 (or even Murdoch) for these documents. There could be proceeds of crime charges too.

  19. Justice Michael Lee is indicating he believes Brittany Higgins lied in her attempts to win a $2.4 million settlement from the commonwealth.

    The judge said while it’s not his role to make findings about the commonwealth’s decision to settle, he can make findings about the claims Ms Higgins put forward in her negotiations with the Commonwealth.

    This is about the ‘coverup claim’, which formed part of her claim to have suffered victimisation, harassment, bullying and pressure to stay silent at the hands of senior Morrison government officials.
    “It is evident that several things being alleged were untrue,” Justice Lee said.

  20. Linda Reynolds is the only winner here (as well as the lawyers).

    looks like both Lehrmann and Higgins will be involved in further court problems.

    It shows the rush to judgement should be avoided.

    We should all be grateful for the role of the Court system.

  21. Justice Michael Lee says it is “unlikely” Brittany Higgins had “genuine confusion” about the cause of a large bruise on her leg that she claimed was caused while she was allegedly being raped.

    During the trial, Ms Higgins was questioned about the bruise which she eventually conceded could have been caused earlier on the night the alleged rape occured.

    “I go into considerable detail as to this topic and the reasons but it suffices for present purposes to note that despite her evidence before me I consider it unlikely there will be genuine confusion in Ms Higgins’ recollection as to how she got the bruise … given the way she and Mr Sharaz deployed in 2021, and their subjective understanding of the importance. ” Justice Lee said.
    Justice Lee said it was “equally odd” that Ms Higgins claimed the bruise was on her left leg, when the photo showed it on her right leg,” and that the bruise photo survived the ‘complete death’ of her phone.

  22. Michael Lee has dismissed a critical part of Ten’s attempt to blow up the case at the last minute – the introduction of ex-producer Taylor Auerbach.

    Auerbach claimed he was instructed by a solicitor, Mr Richard Keegan, to delete materials to conceal their origin.

    “I reject this assertion, it is unbelievable on its face,” Justice Lee said.

  23. Justice Michael Lee says any allegation of a political cover-up of the alleged rape of Brittany Higgins is “objectively short on facts”.

    He said there was much “speculation” and “internal inconsistencies” about whether there was a political plots to cover up the alleged rape.

    “Trying to particularise it during the evidence was like trying to grab a column of smoke,” Justice Lee added.

  24. Brittany Higgins submitted evidence in forms of written submissions to the court.

    While Mr Lehrmann’s untruths “were all over the shop,” Ms Higgins untruths can be put in two categories, Michael Lee said.

    Justice Lee said that in 2019, Ms Higgins tried to portray conduct “in a better light … but by 2021, and afterwards, most were part of a broader narrative or theme that she and her boyfriend wished others to believe, and it appears others wanted to believe”.

  25. Lisa Wilkinson also in the court room, probably not liking Lee J’s findings..

    Can everyone be a loser when the final judgment is revealed?

  26. Justice Michael Lee is making strong findings in favour of former ministerial chief of staff Fiona Brown, heralding her integrity for standing up to ministers who wanted her to report Ms Higgins’ claims of rape without Brittany Higgins’ consent.

    This is the heart of the political cover-up allegation, which the judge is completely dismissing.

    “In these circumstances, to be vilified as an unfeeling apparatchik … must be worse than galling.”

    Justice Lee said he “unhesitatingly” preferred the evidence of Ms Brown to that of Ms Higgins or Bruce Lehrmann, saying she “conducted herself in a careful, careful and generally risk averse way.”

    “She gave evidence in a calm way and was responsive to questions,” Justice Lee said.

    “One aspect of her evidence was particularly striking. Despite Ms Brown facing sustained pressure from her minister (Senator Linda Reynolds) and one of the minister’s colleagues to report the incident to the AFP even though she was then unsure that allegation was being made of rape and irrespective of the wishes of Ms Higgins, she pushed back.”

    Justice Lee continued: “She was not someone to speculate or jump to conclusions and I reject any suggestion Ms Higgins expressly said to Miss Brown at either the first or second meeting that she had been raped or sexually assaulted.”

    So, are Pollbludger posters going to withdraw all their claims of coverups?

  27. In recent years there have been 2 payouts involving the federal lib/nats and their former staffers

    Rachel Miller and Brittany higgins

Comments Page 2 of 45
1 2 3 45

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *