The Coalition has now chalked up consecutive two-party preferred leads in Roy Morgan for the first time this term, its lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49. The primary votes are little changed, with Labor up half a point to 30%, the Coalition up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706. The Financial Review also published further results from its Freshwater Strategy poll showing 38% support for a longer term for the House of Representatives, with 44% opposed.
Preselection news:
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, is all but certain to win decisive Socialist Left backing to fill Labor’s Victorian Senate vacancy resulting from the death of Linda White in February. However, four further candidates are rated likely to nominate for the factional ballot, though not to win, “to force a party ballot amid frustration over ethnic diversity and union influence”. They are Wesa Chau, director of public policy at Multicultural Leadership Initiative; Pamela Anderson, chief executive of Labor women’s advocacy group Emily’s List; Nadia David, a farmer and criminologist; and Sorina Grasso, deputy mayor of the City of Knox. The party’s national secretary, Paul Erickson, and Victorian Attorney-General Jill Hennessy, have reportedly knocked back approaches to nominate.
• Samantha Ratnam, Victorian Greens leader and member for the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, has announced she will quit state politics to seek preselection for the federal seat of Wills, which Peter Khalil retained for Labor ahead of the Greens by margins of 4.9% in 2016, 8.2% in 2019 and 8.6% in 2022. She faces a rival in the party’s candidate from 2022, Sarah Jefford, but Annika Smethurst of The Age rates Ratnam a “near certainty” in a party ballot for which voting wrapped upon Wednesday. The Age further reports the Greens hope to “unite conservative Muslim voters with young progressives”, it being presumed that the former will be disaffected over the government’s stance on the conflict in Gaza.
• A Liberal preselection last fortnight for the Perth seat of Tangney, which the party will be optimistic of recovering after Sam Lim gained it for Labor with an 11.9% swing in 2022, was won by Mark Wales, SAS veteran, Survivor winner and author of a novel about a future war with China. Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports Wales was a “clear winner” over Howard Ong, an IT consultant, and Sean Ayres, a litigation lawyer and staffer to the previous member for the seat, Ben Morton.
• The Financial Review reports Roanne Knox, former Deloitte consultant and founder of children’s fashion label Chasing Sunshine, will shortly be endorsed by the Liberal state executive as the candidate for Wentworth, where teal independent Allegra Spender defeated now Senator Dave Sharma in 2022. Peter King, who held the seat for a term before being deposed for preselection by Malcolm Turnbull in 2004, was earlier rated as a contender, has ultimately declined to nominate.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports Jess Collins, conservative-aligned Lowy Institute research fellow and unsuccessful candidate for the late Jim Molan’s Senate vacancy in November, will contest the Senate preselection ballot for the next election, potentially posing a threat to Andrew Bragg, a moderate who alienated many in the party by supporting the Indigenous Voice. The other incumbent, centre right-aligned Hollie Hughes, is likely to get the top position.
From Shane Dowling, Kangaroo Court of Australia,
‘I have just published a video on YouTube titled “Rupert Murdoch takes over the ABC” which is here’:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLSyuFgdwho
Confessions ” davidwh @ #659 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 7:40 pm
Personally I think Reynolds should drop the claim as well given everything Higgins has suffered.
Yes, it looks very mean spirited and unnecessarily retributive.”
Couldn’t agree more.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:09 pm
Entropy I am just reporting on Brown’s testimony which differs in a significant manner than Drumgold’s question wording. In Brown’s testimony there is no reference to Higgins waking up to find … The comment by Higgins as reported by Brown was more casual.
Having said that, and reviewing Brown’s testimony more closely I can’t see that Brown even advised Reynolds of the comment.
=============================================
I think Brown gave honest testimony in both trials. It is Reynolds testimony in the ACT trial that is highly dubious though. She makes claims that are not supported by Brown’s testimony. She claims she did not know that Higgins woke up with someone on top of her. Which is in total contradiction of what Brown said. I for one believe Brown and suspect Reynolds was in contempt of the ACT court by lying. I believe her main motivation for lying in court. Was to cover the allegation that she made Higgins go to a meeting in the room she was sexually assaulted in. As she knew that didn’t look good, as far as being sensitive to a victims feelings was concerned. So she claimed she only thought it was a security breach up to that time.
I wish Fed or SA Labor would start fixing up our hospital system. It’s getting worse.
In the 2022 Victorian state election, while there was an overall 2PP swing against Labor, this took the form of big swings in safe seats in outer northern and western suburbs where no seats were at risk, but with a swing to Labor in the eastern suburbs where some marginal Liberal seats were, hence Labor gained seats while losing overall statewide vote share. A similar pattern at federal level would place Deakin and Menzies at significant risk (assuming their boundaries don’t change too radically).
I think the Greens would struggle to win Wills on its current boundaries even with a strong candidate, given their weakness in the northern half of the seat, but it’s quite a plausible scenario that it moves south in the redistribution, which would strengthen them in Wills (while weakening them in Macnamara if that also moves south).
As for Queensland, Labor’s past federal vote is low enough that even (say) a 47-53 result would be a significant swing to them with the potential to gain seats. Another potential dynamic is that two of the three Greens seats are vulnerable to exclusion order issues even if their own vote doesn’t change – in particular in Brisbane, a significant Labor-LNP swing in either direction would be problematic (a swing to the LNP winning the seat outright, a swing to Labor pushing the Greens down into third).
While Liberal friends may chortle here about the Labor support not being as high as it has been, a 36% primary for LNP is not wonderful either.
Given the 3% National vote garners about 10 seats for the Coalition, and these are mainly in the more regional (and some of the poorest) electorates in the country, the 33% Primary vote for the Liberals does not look that special. In fact not much above the derided 30/31% for Labor.
Question is, and a previous poster has elaborated on this point, just where do the Liberals expect to pick up 18 or so seats for office on this primary of 33%?
As the previous poster noted, a big swag of the former Labor vote now falls to the Greens and although not generally geographically lumped together, the flow back to Labor in the mainly urban areas, essentially stymies the Liberals.
A great hope the Liberals have is Teal-held seats will just fall back into the Liberal lap. I have my doubts about this as many of these seats are now held by women.
Peter Dutton is well short of a lot of appeal to a lot of people, but for many women, he is the pits.
Labor would have gone to the polls later this year if they had had a strong lead in the polls going into the third quarter of 2024. That now looks unlikely. There is no other reason for an early election. March or May it is, the decision to be based on how things look early in 2025.
The L-NP need something beginning with a 4 to get excited.
Spring is a better time to hold elections. It used to be standard. Autumn elections mean stuffing around with the Budget timing. If Autumn elections are to become the norm, maybe we should go back to delivering the Budget in August.
Another piece of great news for Ukraine. The US Congress has just voted to hand over to Ukraine seized Russian assets as compensation for the invasion.
“ Bill Browder@Billbrowder
BREAKING: US House of Representatives approves confiscation of frozen Russian assets in the US and handing them over to Ukraine. I’ve been working on this since the war began with many good people in Ukraine and around the world. This is a huge milestone and paves the way for the rest of the allies to do the same. A good day for Ukraine and a bad one for Putin”
“ Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:30 pm
From Shane Dowling, Kangaroo Court of Australia”
Convicted crimes should be introduced with their crimes in parentheses
Lot of people forget about the 1 term lib/nat Victorian state gov 2014 I think it was.
Drifted like this current federal gov as it and its supporters just assumed it could not happen so did nothing major to change things and they lost.
Dr D – I don’t think anyone is really speculating on an election in August. I ran a “what if” scenario earlier this afternoon, but only on the proviso the Vic redistribution hadn’t been completed. The PM is not going to pull an August 2024 election, certainly not with primary figures sitting around 31%.
We all know an election must be held roughly between Aug-3-2024 and May-24-2025.
The QLD election will be held on Oct-26-2024, and once that is out of the way we will all be on election watch. I concur, there will be no Federal election before Oct-26-2024 – it is better that the QLD voters unleash their feelings at the ballot box, and then they can reflect over summer and deal with the Federal election in conjunction with their fellow Australian’s. My gut feeling is that incoming Premier Mr Chrisafulli, will do “nothing” between Oct 26 and the Fed Election in order not to upset Mr Dutton’s MP’s in QLD. However, if the Federal ALP polling improves towards the end of the year, be under no illusion that the PM won’t consider a snap election before Christmas (pencil in Saturday 7-Dec, just saying). If you were the PM and say around Melbourne Cup Day your primary was sitting at 39% – what would you do? Of course you would be down at the Governor’s House in a flash!
I understand PM’s prefer an election in the latter half of the year, rather than earlier. The cycle got out of kilter with the 2016 DD. A 2025 election (which is what we will probably have) will require the Budget to be brought forward to late March, early April because once the writs are issued, Parliament shuts down and legislation can’t be enacted. Frydenburg had to do a late March 2022 budget and this is what Chalmers will also have to do next year, that is if they want their budget passed through Parliament.
BTsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:34 pm
In the 2022 Victorian state election, while there was an overall 2PP swing against Labor, this took the form of big swings in safe seats in outer northern and western suburbs where no seats were at risk, but with a swing to Labor in the eastern suburbs where some marginal Liberal seats were, hence Labor gained seats while losing overall statewide vote share. A similar pattern at federal level would place Deakin and Menzies at significant risk (assuming their boundaries don’t change too radically).
—————–
Going by Dunkley and Cook it looks like anti-Morrison liberal voters are going home so we might see liberals getting swings in their seats so the teals might be more at risk than labor mp’s in marginals.
Easter is late next year – Sunday April 20. The Easter holidays run into an Anzac long weekend. Not a great time to be election campaigning.
The last practical election date is May 17, possibly May 24, the latter leaving just 5 weeks to sort out the Senate.
I’m calling it. March, possibly early April (which would be our first ever April election).
Steve777 @ #637 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 7:14 pm
Exactly. But who will the Liberal fanbois blame? Not the feckless Coalition governments of a decade that created the mess of humungous proportions, nope, nope, nope, the men and women tasked with cleaning up after them.
Re election timing: 24 May 2025 is the latest possible date for a combined House of Representatives and half Senate election. In theory, a House only election could be held as late as September 2025, with a separate half Senate election earlier in the year, but that won’t happen.
Like this, shellbell?
Tricot @ #710 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 8:35 pm
And, as Liberal davidwh pointed out, that nuclear power policy of Dutton’s is a stinker. It could save Labor all on its own. However, I’m still thinking, it’s the economy, stupid, and that once we have some Cost of Living relief, real and felt by people, plus an interest rate cut or two before the election, that that will see everyone let out a sigh of relief and acknowledge that what the Albanese government has done has been economically effective.
Mexicanbeemer at 8.57 pm
Cook was the equivalent of a sporting bye. Dunkley was a poor result historically for the Libs. There is not likely to be any reliable polling re Teal prospects, but Daniels would be well ahead of Tim Wilson.
There is a direct parallel with the “Liberals getting swings in their seats”; that is what happened to Labor in 1998, winning the national TCP vote but not the election. Partly due to sophomore surges etc.
The Augmented Electoral Commission makes determination of electoral divisions on October 10th for NSW and October 17th for Victoria. That has to go to parliament after that, and doesn’t sit until the first week of November. Therefore, no election until after that.
So the only possible dates in 2024 are the 7th and 14th of December (and 21st if they are made enough to go that late).
Then there is January and nobody is mad enough to call an election in January.
So there is 22th of Feb which might work but would require a lot of ground work to be done in the heat of summer. Even for March 1 that would be the case.
That leaves March 8, 15, 22, 29 or April 5.
Then you run into School holidays which makes things difficult but April 12 is still possible.
April 19 is out as it is Easter.
April 26 is the day after Anzac day.
May 3 or 10 means that that lost week in April will be an issue.
May 17 would be less affected by it but it would still be an issue.
May 24 is getting very close to the new senate deadline of July 1 and is probably as late as could be practically held.
As you can see, I am guessing that it will have to be in that period of March 15, 22, 29 or April 5 2025. They are the only dates that make sense.
Labor’s mandate is essentially spent – that is the consequence of not having had a very large agenda in 2022.
Look at the genteel but continuing decline in polling post The Voice. With the markets not predicting rate cuts before 2025 what is the benefit in waiting?
Labor will wait to see how the Budget goes – that’s the logical time for Albo to step aside for the good of the Party he loves.
Easter was late in 2019 and 2022 too, and that wasn’t a barrier to a mid-May election. (I expect they’ll go as late as possible, if only to leave the maximum possible time for interest rates to start falling).
Lars has left no doubt that he predicts a leadership change and election this year.
At this stage, the only interesting thing he could say on this matter is to change his prediction. Without that, he’s a bit of a broken record, though by no means the worst offender in that regard on Bludger.
I think it’s interesting that a Federal election in the second half of this year is considered by some as out of the question because of the Queensland election, but the first half of next year is fine despite the WA election.
That said, I’m on the side of a 2025 election (most likely May) with Albanese leading Labor. I hope there’s a plan to win seats in other States because the West Australian is singlemindedly working to defeat Federal Labor in WA.
Steve777says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 8:58 pm
Easter is late next year – Sunday April 20. The Easter holidays run into an Anzac long weekend. Not a great time to be election campaigning.
The last practical election date is May 17, possibly May 24, the latter leaving just 5 weeks to sort out the Senate.
I’m calling it. March, possibly early April (which would be our first ever April election).
===================================================
No, bit difficult… unless of course you are thinking the Budget {this May-14}, will be the last budget before the election. You could be right, but this budget has to contain lots of goodies and goodies the public will remember for a while. Remember, the Budget needs legislation to pass through the two Houses. Once writs are issued, everything stops, so the 2025 Chalmers Budget will need to be earlier (late March 2025) and it’s got to get through Parliament before the PM goes russhing off to the GG. There is also the W.A. election in the mix. Gosh, this is very complicated for the PM.
Dr Doolittlesays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 9:06 pm
Mexicanbeemer at 8.57 pm
Cook was the equivalent of a sporting bye. Dunkley was a poor result historically for the Libs. There is not likely to be any reliable polling re Teal prospects, but Daniels would be well ahead of Tim Wilson.
There is a direct parallel with the “Liberals getting swings in their seats”; that is what happened to Labor in 1998, winning the national TCP vote but not the election. Partly due to sophomore surges etc.
—————–
Daniel Steggall and Spender look safe but we wont know about the others until we see the new boundaries and the results come in.
Steve777 at 8.58 pm
[“I’m calling it. March, possibly early April.”]
What would you do with those Sandgropers? They will be going to the polls on 8 March, in the heat of Bunuru (the Noongar second summer, which has had an extended season this year).
Yes, Easter 2025 may interfere with the start of a federal election campaign, but, if it does, why would that obstruct Labor, rather than the LNP? After all, Howard called the 1998 election so that the first part of the campaign would overlap with the Commonwealth Games, when that jamboree existed.
Subtlety is overrated Rewi.
For what it’s worth I think the election will be on 24 May next year. I can’t see any challenge to Albanese before then.
“ Lars has left no doubt that he predicts a leadership change and election this year.”
L’arse: gaslighting Anthony Albanese since 2019 …
Global politics might also be a factor….
Ok, really US politics might be a factor….
A re-elected Trump or chaos following the US election (like January 6th on steroid) will have a unknown effect on the Australian election (as well as for the world)…
The UK election will be observed but it is unlikely to affect things here.
There are other geopolitical things that could cause issues. However, I suspect that the Gaza War might be much less of a “present” issue by 2025 (it will either be over one way or another).
https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/tritium-s-rapid-rise-and-collapse-is-over-goes-in-to-administration
Made in Australia!!!
Easter is more of an issue for the ALP than the Liberals because their advantages is in manpower. If the people who would normally be volunteering to campaign for Labor are on holidays then it would be a disadvantage.
I saw the first ad on TV tonight for the tax cuts beginning on July 1st. 🙂
B. S. Fairman @ #737 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 9:23 pm
Liberals can afford holidays more than Laborites can.
B.S. Fairman at 9.20 pm
If Trump is re-elected that could only help Labor, relative to the LNP. Dutton would be seen as a risk.
There is an argument that the surprise Brexit result (a surprise to B. Johnson among others) helped Turnbull in the last week of the long 2016 campaign, partly by operating as a distraction, and partly by reinforcing, as a contrast, a vote for the LNP status quo.
Lars has been admirably consistent in at least one thing: that 2019 election thread saw him enthused at the prospect of a minority LNP government in order to see “real reform”, and he remains enthused by the prospect of a minority Labor government for the same reason.
I also note, apropos of not much but just ‘cos he gets a lot of shit for being a Lib, that he celebrated Abbott’s defeat in Warringah.
As the Maoists said, Bombard the headquarters Rewi.
C@ t
I saw the advert as well for the first time
Newspoll 51-49 to ALP
ALP 33 L-NP 38 Grn 12 ON 7 others 10
Holdenhillbilly @ #744 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 9:32 pm
Good. 🙂
Victoria @ #743 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 9:31 pm
Next time I’ll unmute it and listen to it. 😀
Holden – You’re not the GhostWhoVotes?
Status quo for Newspoll. Happy with that.
B. S. Fairman: No.
A majority of voters have backed Anthony Albanese’s budget plan to use taxpayer subsidies for renewable energy projects and sovereign manufacturing, despite criticism that it was a return to protectionism.
Mr Albanese’s net approval rating of minus 6 was a one point improvement.
Mr Dutton’s net approval rating of minus 15 was unchanged.
Mr Dutton improved by a point in the head-to-head contest over which leader was regarded as making the better prime minister, with Mr Albanese’s lead now cut to a margin of 13 points.
The latest Newspoll also tested voter reaction to Labor’s clean energy and industry agenda, which Mr Albanese has signalled would funnel taxpayer-backed tax breaks, loans and subsidies through A Future Made in Australia Act.
Voters were asked to identify which of two propositions was closer to their view.
The first asked whether the Australian government should actively invest in projects that help Australia transition to a clean energy economy and create new local industries and jobs in Australia.
The second question asked whether the Australian government should stay out of the way and provide a better environment for business by reducing energy costs, cutting red tape and reforming the industrial relations sector.
A majority of voters backed the move to drive greater government intervention in the economy, while 38 per cent believed that the government involvement should be contained to reducing energy costs, cutting red tape and reforming the industrial relations sector and creating an environment for business to thrive.
Younger voters were more likely to support bigger government with 64 per cent of 18-34-year-olds agreeing with state intervention, compared with 31 per cent citing the alternative.
The only demographic where a larger number picked the “better environment for business” proposition was those aged over 65 – 49 per cent, compared with 48 per cent in favour of intervention.
There was also a clear partisan effect, with 74 per cent of Labor voters backing state-backed investment, compared with 40 per cent of Coalition voters – although the proportion of Coalition voters in favour of the government’s agenda was relatively high.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-voters-back-future-made-in-australia-plan-but-no-reward-for-anthony-albanese/news-story/9e8bc2ea6fb9299ccd678ee595f7320f?amp
Labor will govern in minority or not at all.
Albo would be happy with that after his hardest week in the job.
Newspoll
TPP: ALP 51 (0) L/NP 49 (0)
Primary: ALP 33 (+1) L/NP 38 (+1) GRN 12 (-1) ON 7 (0) OTH 10 (-1)
https://theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-voters-back-future-made-in-australia-plan-but-no-reward-for-anthony-albanese/news-story/9e8bc2ea6fb9299ccd678ee595f7320f
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 9:36 pm
B. S. Fairman: No.
=====================
Are you Simon Benson then?
Great pick-up by the way – 2 mins before the Oz updated their website.