The Coalition has now chalked up consecutive two-party preferred leads in Roy Morgan for the first time this term, its lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49. The primary votes are little changed, with Labor up half a point to 30%, the Coalition up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens steady on 13.5% and One Nation down half a point to 5.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1706. The Financial Review also published further results from its Freshwater Strategy poll showing 38% support for a longer term for the House of Representatives, with 44% opposed.
Preselection news:
• The Sydney Morning Herald reports Lisa Darmanin, public sector branch secretary of the Australian Services Union, is all but certain to win decisive Socialist Left backing to fill Labor’s Victorian Senate vacancy resulting from the death of Linda White in February. However, four further candidates are rated likely to nominate for the factional ballot, though not to win, “to force a party ballot amid frustration over ethnic diversity and union influence”. They are Wesa Chau, director of public policy at Multicultural Leadership Initiative; Pamela Anderson, chief executive of Labor women’s advocacy group Emily’s List; Nadia David, a farmer and criminologist; and Sorina Grasso, deputy mayor of the City of Knox. The party’s national secretary, Paul Erickson, and Victorian Attorney-General Jill Hennessy, have reportedly knocked back approaches to nominate.
• Samantha Ratnam, Victorian Greens leader and member for the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, has announced she will quit state politics to seek preselection for the federal seat of Wills, which Peter Khalil retained for Labor ahead of the Greens by margins of 4.9% in 2016, 8.2% in 2019 and 8.6% in 2022. She faces a rival in the party’s candidate from 2022, Sarah Jefford, but Annika Smethurst of The Age rates Ratnam a “near certainty” in a party ballot for which voting wrapped upon Wednesday. The Age further reports the Greens hope to “unite conservative Muslim voters with young progressives”, it being presumed that the former will be disaffected over the government’s stance on the conflict in Gaza.
• A Liberal preselection last fortnight for the Perth seat of Tangney, which the party will be optimistic of recovering after Sam Lim gained it for Labor with an 11.9% swing in 2022, was won by Mark Wales, SAS veteran, Survivor winner and author of a novel about a future war with China. Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reports Wales was a “clear winner” over Howard Ong, an IT consultant, and Sean Ayres, a litigation lawyer and staffer to the previous member for the seat, Ben Morton.
• The Financial Review reports Roanne Knox, former Deloitte consultant and founder of children’s fashion label Chasing Sunshine, will shortly be endorsed by the Liberal state executive as the candidate for Wentworth, where teal independent Allegra Spender defeated now Senator Dave Sharma in 2022. Peter King, who held the seat for a term before being deposed for preselection by Malcolm Turnbull in 2004, was earlier rated as a contender, has ultimately declined to nominate.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column reports Jess Collins, conservative-aligned Lowy Institute research fellow and unsuccessful candidate for the late Jim Molan’s Senate vacancy in November, will contest the Senate preselection ballot for the next election, potentially posing a threat to Andrew Bragg, a moderate who alienated many in the party by supporting the Indigenous Voice. The other incumbent, centre right-aligned Hollie Hughes, is likely to get the top position.
TPOF says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:09 pm
Both Reynolds and Browns health were negatively impacted and their careers destroyed by the false accusations. They don’t get a $2.4 million payout for it.
Resolve
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-vote-falls-to-new-low-as-australians-buckle-under-cost-of-living-pressure-20240419-p5fl7d.html?btis
For those genuinely interested int the cost of nuclear.
Lazard gives gives the US capital and Levalized cost for various energy systems.
Page 11 of the attached document gives the capital cost. As well as not being required, the Liberals are trying to have Australia commit to a technology that is 4 times the cost of utility solar plus storage and for that we get nothing more than what solar plus storage offers.
https://www.lazard.com/media/2ozoovyg/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf
The other data of interest is the Leverlized cost un-subsidized . That is on page 2. Nuclear is more expansive than all but roof top solar.
Page 9 gives you the trend in Levelized costs . Renewables are falling, Nuclear is rising.
The Liberals are stacking bullshit on bullshit.
Anyone manage to spot the comet tonight?
frednk that the Libs are pushing nuclear is one of the best factors going for Labor.
Resolve Political Monitor Poll
* ALP 30% (down 2)
* LNP 36% (up 1)
* GRN 13% (steady)
* ONP/UAP 7% (steady)
* Others/Indies 14% (down 1)
I’ll let someone else to the 2PP split
No comet spotting here tonight. Just more rain.
Good pick up Laughtong. Credit where credit is due
Nadia looks like 50/50 on those primaries
”
FUBARsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:41 pm
TPOF says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:09 pm
Both Reynolds and Browns health were negatively impacted and their careers destroyed by the false accusations. They don’t get a $2.4 million payout for it.
”
You still don’t get how humiliating, mentally torturing in addition to ‘health were negatively impacted and their careers destroyed’.
Quite a few women commit suicide after rape.
Some women go crazy after rape.
They say it is worst experience for women all around the world.
Your implication that Higgins should grin and bear for the sake of Reynolds and Brown health and careers and for the sake of Liberal party is the most abhorrent thing you posted.
The electorate boundaries of Fowler might be quite different at the next election, courtesy of the redistribution in NSW.
Bummer davidwh. Perfect night here but I couldn’t find it. I tried a sky app but for $3.99 got zip on it or visually.
Hopefully the clear skies hold up.
Might head up the Blue Mountains tomorrow night.
You need to get away from city lights Aqualung
Lib/nats combined primary vote average still around 36% is not going to force Labor into minority government
I left it too late today. I should be better organised tomorrow hopefully davidwh.
🙂
Ven @ #613 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 6:52 pm
So predictable as well.
‘FUBAR says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:41 pm
TPOF says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:09 pm
Both Reynolds and Browns health were negatively impacted and their careers destroyed by the false accusations. They don’t get a $2.4 million payout for it.’
————————-
Brown had exactly the same terms of employment as Higgins and is entitled to pursue a Comcare compensation case. We don’t know whether she has done so.
In terms of compensation, Reynolds is pursuing her claims to compensation by way of her defo action.
How that plays out is for the courts to decide.
We just got back from a trip to the west coast and stayed at numerous places where comet spotting would have been excellent.
”I’ll let someone else to the 2PP split”
It’s close to 50-50.
30 + 11 (Green) + 2 (RWNJ) + 7 (other)
EDIT.
Another calculation.
Left —> 30 + 13 = 43
Right -> 36 + 7 = 43
(Preference ‘leakage’ assumed to cancel)
Split 14% “Someone Else” 50:50
—> 50-50 2PP
White Cliffs would be perfect. My cats might object though.
Ven says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:52 pm
Higgins rape is a separate issue that has been dealt with through the courts and the workers compensation system.
Why should Higgins’ false accusations be left to lie despite the damage they did to Reynolds and Brown?
Are you excusing Sharaz and Higgins because you agree with their politics and therefore it was completely ok to lie about a supposed Liberal cover up and them also treating her badly?
Spotted at the SCG today with 35,000 others watching the Swannies….
The electronic signage captures the vibe
Boerwar @ #591 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 6:18 pm
And your stupidity is no substitute for reality.
Fact: The main cause of coral bleaching is climate change.
Fact: The main cause of climate change is burning fossil fuels.
Fact: It’s not tourism causing coral bleaching – it’s fossil fuels.
Definitely time for a reshuffle.
Contradictions and delays everywhere.
NDIS is a mess.
Environment is a mess.
Immigration is a mess.
Foreign Affairs is a mess.
Transport and Infrastructure is a mess.
Home Affairs is a mess.
Housing is a mess.
Indigenous Affairs is a mess.
Chalmers in Treasury, Butler in Health, Watt in Agriculture and Dreyfuss as AG are about the only ones to achieve a pass mark. Maybe Burke in Employment as well.
”
Entropysays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 3:50 pm
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 3:33 pm
======================================================
It certainly shows a lack of support by Reynold’s for Higgins. As one of the accusations was that Higgins was made to feel uncomfortable by being asked to attend a meeting with Reynolds in the office she had recently been raped. So in court Reynolds dismissed that idea, as she claimed she had no idea anything besides a security breach occurred. Making it sound that Higgins accusation was unjustified. So if Reynolds lied, it would seem to be to cover up the fact she had done exactly as Higgins claimed she had.
Though person Reynolds is actually contradicting and by default calling a liar in this statement is Fiona Brown. Whom the Lehrmann case showed was the person who actually probably played a honest and straight bat throughout this saga. I certainly would believe Brown over Reynolds in this
”
Even Justice Lee found Fiona Brown to be the most trustworthy of all witnesses in Lehrmann defamation trial.
Taylormade says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:04 pm
“Watt in Agriculture”
Not in WA.
From Resolve..
Resolve director Jim Reed said the shift in core support meant Labor and the Coalition were tied at 50-50 in two-party terms after preferences were calculated on the stated intention of survey respondents.
………..
The shift against Labor was not replicated in the findings on personal performance, with Albanese and Dutton both improving on this measure, and many voters continue to regard Labor as the favourites to win the next election.
Asked how they rated Albanese, 43 per cent of people said his performance was good and 45 per cent said it was poor. His net result, which subtracts the “poor” from the “good” rating, improved to minus 2 percentage points from minus 11 in March.
Asked about Dutton, 40 per cent of people said his performance was good and 42 per cent said it was poor. His net result was minus 2 percentage points, an improvement from minus 9 points a month ago.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-vote-falls-to-new-low-as-australians-buckle-under-cost-of-living-pressure-20240419-p5fl7d.html
‘Player One says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:03 pm
Boerwar @ #591 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 6:18 pm
‘Player One says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 4:53 pm
Boerwar @ #571 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 4:41 pm
No difference, of course. They are all fucked.
Whereas you apparently genuinely are that stupid.’
——————————-
Your personal abuse is no substitute for reality.
We are in the middle of the fourth global coral bleaching event.
On current trends the Reef is gone.
It is already incredibly damaged with 400 year old corals dying and algae replacing coral.
When the Reef goes it won’t matter whether your tourist resort is the plain unvarnished tourist resort or a so-called eco-resort Reef white washer.
They are all gone.
With them 64,000 jobs.
And your stupidity is no substitute for reality.
Fact: The main cause of coral bleaching is climate change.
Fact: The main cause of climate change is burning fossil fuels.
Fact: It’s not tourism causing coral bleaching – it’s fossil fuels.’
——————
Fact: personal abuse does not help.
Fact: tourism uses a huge amount of fossil fuels.
Fact: on current trends the Reef is history.
Fact: tourism is a big contributor to current trends.
Tom Harley and David Pocock are Dopplegangers…
30% Primary in Resolve.
Only a matter of time till Newspoll goes sub 30 for Labor Primary.
Delicious!
Unusually, the report on the Resolve Strategic poll says this: “Resolve director Jim Reed said the shift in core support meant Labor and the Coalition were tied at 50-50 in two-party terms after preferences were calculated on the stated intention of survey respondents.”
Ven says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:05 pm
Even Justice Lee found Fiona Brown to be the most trustworthy of all witnesses in Lehrmann defamation trial.
———–
Yes, but Fiona Brown did say she thought the ministers were trying to protect their positions.
Which will be interesting if Fiona Brown is called as a witness in the Reynolds vs Higgins and Sharaz case if it goes ahead
Davidwhsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:40 pm
If you read the full transcript of Fiona Brown’s evidence the incident referred to on 29 March 2019 was that Higgins was found partly naked in the minister’s office. At that time there was no information from Higgins that anything of a sexual, consensual or assault, had taken place. Reynolds argued, wrongly, that this should be notified to the AFP while Brown correctly argued this would not be appropriate.
Not sure how all that points to anything inconsistent in what Reynolds has stated?
==============================================
So what exactly was Reynolds suggesting Higgins go to the police for. If it was not to do with being sexually assaulted?.
” NDIS is a mess.
Environment is a mess.
Immigration is a mess.
Foreign Affairs is a mess.
Transport and Infrastructure is a mess.
Home Affairs is a mess.
Housing is a mess.”
Nine years of corrupt, incompetent Right-wing Government far more concerned with culture-warring, dog-whistling, defending fossil fuels, political point-scoring off everything from deaths in aged care to foreign policy and above all looking after mates – than they were with actual governing – will do that.
Six Augean Stables and more to clean up. It can’t happen overnight.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:09 pm
30% Primary in Resolve.
Only a matter of time till Newspoll goes sub 30 for Labor Primary.
Delicious!
———————
What is the excuse for the Lib/nats combined primary vote stuck around 36% ,
Too soon for Albo retrospectives?
What would he have done differently?
1) Left Lowe in place , gone harder on rates earlier – would be reaping the benefit now.
2) Never have run The Voice referendum
3) Dropped a few of the non essential overseas trips
4) Come up with something more serious on Housing
5) Ditched AUKUS & embraced the Light Mobile Force
Reynolds was suggesting Brown advise the AFP not Higgins. My guess to protect the government against any claims of a cover up. Ass-protecting. Of course that would be highly inappropriate given no allegation of sexual assault had been made at that time.
As Brown pointed out that was Higgin’s right to decide.
The official ‘view’ of China with respect to Marle’s latest words:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202404/1310856.shtml
Advising a rape victim to report the rape to Police is now a bad thing?
”
FUBARsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:00 pm
Ven says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:52 pm
Higgins rape is a separate issue that has been dealt with through the courts and the workers compensation system.
Why should Higgins’ false accusations be left to lie despite the damage they did to Reynolds and Brown?
Are you excusing Sharaz and Higgins because you agree with their politics and therefore it was completely ok to lie about a supposed Liberal cover up and them also treating her badly?
”
FUBAR
Higgins rape is a separate issue and it was found so only in Defamation case. How?
Lehrmann defamation trial is not about whether there is cover up at the highest levels of Liberal party and Morrison government.
It is about Lehrmann being felt defamed by the accusation of Channel 10 that he raped Higgins.
(Yes, Channel 10 also alleged that there was cover up by Morrison government but Lehrmann was not defamed by that).
Justice Lee in his verdict said in legal terms that he did not find any cover up by Morrison government at highest levels.
He said that he found Fiona Brown to be the most trustworthy witness.
We will know whether there is cover up or not at highest levels of Morrison government in the trial of Reynolds defamation case against Higgins
As Entropy posted @3:28 pm
“Entropy @ #551 Sunday, April 21st, 2024 – 3:28 pm
Under oath at the ACT Supreme Court Linda Reynolds said this.
“Former defence minister Linda Reynolds has told the ACT Supreme Court that she did not know of a sexual assault allegation when she called Brittany Higgins to her office on April 1, 2019, to discuss a later night security incident.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/courts-law/brittany-higgins-bruce-lehrmann-rape-trial-enters-its-final-days/news-story/d582e42ad705057491677435bc238298
Yet according to information supplied to the AFP and confirmed by Fiona Brown under oath in the Lehrmann defamation trial. On the March 29th Reynolds asked Brown to report an incident to the police.
“The master chronology records on March 29, 2019, that Fiona Brown claimed that “Linda called – directed me to go to AFP and report the incident on her behalf, I refused. We discussed, she insisted, I refused. I said ‘you can’t, it is morally and ethically wrong. It is up to the person/victim, disempowering etc’. Heated.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/courts-law/brittany-higgins-raises-the-question-of-whether-she-was-drugged-on-night-of-alleged-rape/news-story/bed943b3a8bc9cae1491a879515bf39c
So what was the actual incident Reynolds wanted reported?. Considering she swore under oath in an ACT supreme court she knew nothing of sexual assault allegations at the time she called Higgins into her office to discuss the security breach on the 1st of April.
Lars 1) Left Lowe in place , gone harder on rates earlier – would be reaping the benefit now. – What, when? Before Labor was elected?
2) Never have run The Voice referendum – an election promise. The “No” campaign was an utterly scurrilous exercise in deception.
3) Dropped a few of the non essential overseas trips – a bullshit non-issue.
4) Come up with something more serious on Housing – agree should be doing more. It’s a mess brought on by Coalition tax policies.
5) Ditched AUKUS & embraced the Light Mobile Force – right now you’re just joking.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:21 pm
Reynolds was suggesting Brown advise the AFP not Higgins. My guess to protect the government against any claims of a cover up. Ass-protecting. Of course that would be highly inappropriate given no allegation of sexual assault had been made at that time.
As Brown pointed out that was Higgin’s right to decide.
====================================================
So no allegation had been made you claim?. So again i ask what was Fiona Brown suppose to go to the AFP and tell them in that case. If at that time she knew nothing.
davidwhsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:21 pm
Reynolds was suggesting Brown advise the AFP not Higgins. My guess to protect the government against any claims of a cover up. Ass-protecting. Of course that would be highly inappropriate given no allegation of sexual assault had been made at that time.
As Brown pointed out that was Higgin’s right to decide.
====================================================
So no allegation had been made you claim?. So again i ask what was Fiona Brown suppose to go to the AFP and tell them in that case. If at that time she knew nothing?.
To make it easier for you. In this statement by Fiona Brown:
“Fiona Brown claimed that “Linda called – directed me to go to AFP and report the incident on her behalf,”
What exactly was the incident she was suppose to report?. If it was not a sexual assault?.
‘FUBAR says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:22 pm
Advising a rape victim to report the rape to Police is now a bad thing?’
———————————-
Asking yet another stupid rhetorical question is a bad thing.
Good to know that the boat (with a kick ass twin diesel motors) I was on to visit the reef a few years ago didn’t contribute to global emissions.
Scott Morrison was the prime minister and rebuke Reynolds for her dealing over Brittany Higgins which may be the factor if the case goes ahead
Linda Reynolds was never called as a witness in the Lehrmann vs CH 10 , lisa Wilkinson case
It would have been very interesting to see what justice Lee would have thought , if he did hear Linda Reynolds account
Melbourne Mammoth:
“Qld are decades apart from the rest of Australia.”
Indeed. Queensland abolished capital punishment in 1922.
Victoria finally caught up in 1975.
Who were the top 3 appointment regrets for Albo?
1) Linda Burney ( maybe the Voice would have still lost – but certainly didn’t help)
2) Clare O’Neill ( was the future, once until the immigration detention debacle)
3) Don Farrell ( How’s that free trade agreement with Europe going Don?)
Boerwarsays:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:25 pm
‘FUBAR says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 7:22 pm
Advising a rape victim to report the rape to Police is now a bad thing?’
======================================================
It is, particularly if you do it on the 29th of March. Then you latter claim under oath in an ACT court you had no idea the event was anything but a security breach. When you called Higgins into the office she was raped in on the 1st of April.
Steve777says:
Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 6:59 pm
”I’ll let someone else to the 2PP split”
It’s close to 50-50.
30 + 11 (Green) + 2 (RWNJ) + 7 (other)
EDIT.
Another calculation.
Left —> 30 + 13 = 43
Right -> 36 + 7 = 43
(Preference ‘leakage’ assumed to cancel)
Split 14% “Someone Else” 50:50
—> 50-50 2PP
==================
Thnks Steve, jeepers your good on this, and spot on with the 50-50 calc.
This is getting tight. The budget has to come up with some goodies