Live Commentary
12:10pm The Europe Elects live results forecast now has the right-wing ECR group moving into third ahead of the liberal Renew group with 81 seats to 80. This is because two liberal parties missed the 4% threshold in Italy, so neither won any seats. Had they formed a joint list, they would have won seats.
9:20am Tuesday The final Italian results have the governing right-wing Brothers of Italy on 28.8% (up 22.3% since 2019), the centre-left Democrats on 24.1% (up 1.4%), the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement on 10.0% (down 7.1%), the conservative Forza Italia on 9.6% (up 1.1%), the far-right League on 9.0% (down 25.3%) and a left-wing party on 6.7% (up 2.6%).
5:58pm In German final EU results, the conservative CDU/CSU won 29 seats (steady), the far-right AfD 15 (up four), the Social Democrats 14 (down two), the Greens 12 (down nine), the economically left but socially right BSW six (new), the liberal FDP five (steady), the Left three (down two) and a pro-Europe party three (up two).
5:01pm In Poland, final results have the liberal to conservative Civic Platform narrowly ahead of the Law and Justice party by 37-36 with 12% for the far-right Kon.
4:56pm Final French results have the far-right National Rally winning 31.4% (up 8.1 since 2019), Macron’s party 14.6% (down 7.8), a centre-left party 13.8% (up 7.6), the far-left 9.9% (up 3.6), the conservatives 7.2% (down 1.3), the Greens 5.5% (down 8.0) and another far-right party 5.5%.
4:44pm The biggest gains vs the current European parliament composition in the Europe Elects forecast are for Non-Inscrits (up 27), the EPP (up 14) and ECR (up 10). The biggest losses are for the Greens (down 21) and the Liberals (down 17).
9:32am The Greens are now down to 51 seats on the Europe Elects live forecast, five below the 56 seats they were expected to win yesterday, and 23 below what they won in 2019.
9:30am In Hungary, with 76% counted, the far-right governing Fidesz has 44%, (down 8.6% since 2019), but the main opposition is a new conservative party, which has 30%. Left-wing parties had little support.
8:26am There’s a big swing to a conservative party and against the Greens in Belgium’s national election today, with the conservatives up ten seats and the Greens down 11 seats.
8:19am Based on partial and near-complete results from some countries, and polls from others, the Europe Elects current forecast is for the conservative EPP group to win 194 of the 720 seats, the centre-left S&D 137, the liberal Renew 83, the Eurosceptic ECR 72, the far-right ID 63, the Greens 55 and the far-left 38. Non-aligned Non-Inscrits (NI) will win the remaining 78 seats; these include far-right parties that were expelled from other groups. These results are better for the EPP and worse for Renew, the ECR and ID than yesterday’s forecast (see below).
7:41am In Spain, the conservative People’s Party has gained nine seats for 22 to be the most popular party ahead of the governing Socialists with 20. Other seats have gone to right and left-wing parties.
7:35am In Germany, the far-right AfD has surged into second place with 16 seats, up five from 2019, with the Greens down nine seats to 12.
7:30am With 77% counted in France, National Rally has 35%, Macron’s party 14.4% and the centre-left 12.9%.
7:08am Monday After a disastrous result for French president Emmanuel Macron’s liberal party, in which they finished a distant second to the far-right National Rally, Macron has called snap parliamentary elections for June 30 (first round) and July 7 (runoffs). Macron’s party does not currently have a parliamentary majority. These elections will be for the French lower house, not for the presidency.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The European parliament (EU) election is being held from Thursday to today, with vote counting starting once all countries have finished voting. Italy will be the last country to finish voting at 7am AEST Monday, so this is when counting starts. This is the first EU election since Brexit, so the UK won’t be involved.
The 720 seats are elected using proportional representation in each EU country. The countries that have the most seats are Germany (96 seats), France (81), Italy (76), Spain (61) and Poland (53).
European parties are grouped according to their political alignment. The conservative European People’s Party (EPP) includes all conservative parties from the various countries, while the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group includes all centre-left parties.
In 2019, the EPP won 187 of the 751 seats, the S&D 147, the liberal Renew 98, the Greens 74, the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) 76, the soft Eurosceptic Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) 62 and the far-left 41. Non-Inscrits (NI), who are not grouped into a European faction, won the remaining 57 seats.
Far-right parties are expected to make gains at this election. The final Europe Elects forecast is for the EPP to win 184 of the 720 seats, the S&D 136, Renew 87, the ECR 74, ID 67, the Greens 56 and the far-left 37. The NI had 79 seats in this forecast, and this included far-right parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Hungary’s governing Fidesz that have been expelled by other EU factions.
If far-right parties don’t do as well as expected, turnout could be a factor. People who support far-right parties are likely to have a lower educational attainment than those who oppose the far-right. Higher educational attainment means a higher likelihood of voting in an optional voting system.
The Belgian national parliament election will be held concurrently with the EU election. The 150 seats are elected by PR in 11 multi-member electorates with a 5% threshold per electorate. The Dutch-speaking part of Belgium (Flanders) is very right-wing, while the French-speaking part (Wallonia) is very left-wing.
UK election: Labour remains over 20 points ahead
The UK general election is on July 4. The Guardian’s national poll aggregate has Labour on 44.0% (down 0.7 since last Tuesday), the Conservatives on 23.4% (down 0.4), the far-right Reform on 11.9% (up 0.7), the Liberal Democrats on 9.7% (up 0.6) and the Greens on 5.7% (up 0.1). Reform has gained a little since Nigel Farage announced he would contest Clacton on June 3, but Labour remains way ahead, and would win a massive landslide if the election results replicate these polls.
Nominations for the election closed on Friday. If a candidate does something embarrassing, they can’t be withdrawn from the ballot paper, only publicly disendorsed by their party. UK elections are managed by local governments, so there are no easily accessible national lists of candidates, as there would be with Australia’s electoral commissions. Reform has said it will stand candidates in 630 of the 650 Commons seats and the Greens 575. Presumably, Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems will contest all seats not in Northern Ireland.
US election: Trump still leads
The US general election is on November 5. It’s been over a week since Donald Trump’s May 30 conviction. In FiveThirtyEight’s tracker of national polls, Trump leads Joe Biden by 40.9-39.9 with 9.4% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump led by 1.7 points on May 30. Biden’s best chance to win the Electoral College is to win all of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, states where he currently trails by 1.5 points or less.