Author: Adrian Beaumont

US polls after passage of Trump’s legislation

Donald Trump’s ratings are little changed since the passage of his “big beautiful bill”. Also covered: a UK Labour defection to a potential Jeremy Corbyn-led party.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Republicans won the US House of Representatives by 220-215 over Democrats at the November 2024 elections, but they currently hold a 220-212 margin owing to three Democratic deaths where the previous member has not yet been replaced at special elections.

On July 3, the House passed the Senate’s version of Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill (BBB)” by 218-214, with just two Republicans joining all Democrats in opposition. In the Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 margin after the 2024 elections, what Democrats call the “big ugly bill” passed by 51-50 on Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Three Republicans had joined all Democrats in opposition. One Republican senator and one House member voted against from the right.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is currently -6.7, with 51.4% disapproving and 44.7% approving. Trump’s ratings have barely changed since the BBB was passed, although there haven’t been many recent polls owing to the July 4 US holiday.

In a July 4-7 YouGov poll, Americans were opposed to the BBB by 53-35. On the deficit, 52% thought it would increase due to the BBB, 11% remain about the same and 19% decrease. By 52-28, respondents thought the BBB would hurt the average American, and by 42-24 they thought it would hurt “you and your immediate family”.

The BBB’s passage wasn’t Trump’s only recent victory. The Supreme Court currently has a 6-3 majority for right-wing judges, and they ruled on June 27 by this 6-3 margin that lower court judges cannot now issue nationwide injunctions. Trump’s policies will be harder to challenge in courts.

Musk’s new party and NYC mayoral general election

In other US news, Elon Musk has formed a new party called the “America Party” that will contest the 2026 midterm elections. Musk’s net favourability in Silver’s tracker is currently -21.8, with 56.4% unfavourable and 34.7% favourable. It’s unlikely that his party will succeed with Musk unpopular, but it’s more likely to take votes from Republicans than Democrats.

Socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo by 56.0-44.0 after preferences to win the June 24 New York City Democratic mayoral nomination. The general election will be held on November 4 using first past the post. Cuomo and current mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat, will be running as independents, and there’s also a Republican. Polls suggest Cuomo is Mamdani’s biggest threat, but Mamdani may prevail owing to vote splitting between the more conservative candidates.

UK Labour MP defects

On July 3, UK Labour MP Zarah Sultana defected from Labour and announced she would join a potential party led by Jeremy Corbyn. In 2017, the Conservatives suffered a surprise loss of their majority in the House of Commons to Corbyn’s Labour, but Boris Johnson thumped Labour in 2019, ending Corbyn’s leadership. Corbyn was expelled by Labour, but retained his seat at the 2024 election as an independent.

A late June More in Common poll gave a Corbyn-led party 10% of the national vote, with the far-right Reform on 27% (unchanged from the standard poll), Labour 20% (down three), the Conservatives 20% (unchanged), the Liberal Democrats 14% (unchanged) and the Greens 5% (down four).

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate has Reform leading with 28.8%, with Labour at 24.1%, the Conservatives 17.7%, the Lib Dems 14.2% and the Greens 8.5%. Reform has been the clear leader since the early May local elections. Most recent polls give Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30

Labour won 411 of the 650 House of Commons seats at the July 2024 election, and they currently have 403 MPs. Despite Labour’s big majority, Starmer was forced into making major concessions to get his welfare reform bill past the second reading on July 1. But 49 Labour MPs still rebelled and it was opposed by all other parties, so it passed by a 335-260 margin.

The Guardian reported Thursday that a Labour-endorsed bill would revert mayoral elections to preferential voting. The Conservatives in 2022 had regressed these elections to FPTP. But Labour has not proposed adopting preferential voting for Commons elections.

New York City Democratic mayoral primary election live

Former New York governor Andrew Cuomo is the favourite to win today’s Democratic mayoral nomination, but a late poll has a socialist ahead.

Live Commentary

5:19pm Wednesday July 2: Preferences were distributed last night, and Mamdani defeated Cuomo by 56.0-44.0.

12:42pm With 90% in, Mamdani leads Cuomo on primary votes by 43.5-36.3. This looks over, but US media won’t call it until the preferential vote tabulation next Tuesday. After the November general election, NYC is likely to have a socialist mayor.

11:49am With 81% in, Mamdani leads on primary votes by 43.8-35.7. If Mamdani’s lead holds up on the remaining votes, he’s very likely to win. Most polls have been very wrong about this contest. The preference tabulation is not until next Tuesday.

11:26am With 54% in, Mamdani’s primary vote lead over Cuomo has been reduced to 43.5-35.4.

11:09am Already we have 38% of votes in, and Mamdani leads Cuomo by 43-34 on primary votes. But these are early votes, and election day votes may be better for Cuomo.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The New York City (NYC) mayoral general election will be held in November. But NYC is strongly Democratic, so the winner of today’s Democratic mayoral primary is likely to win the general. This election uses Australian-style preferential voting.

Polls close at 11am AEST today, but only primary votes will be counted, with the first tabulation of preferences to be held in a week. It will be optional preferential voting, with a maximum of five preferences allowed. Voters won’t number each box as in Australia. Instead, they’ll be presented with five columns. The left column will be the first choice (primary vote), with the fifth column corresponding to the fifth preference. US ballot papers are intended to be read by machines, not hand counted.

It would be better if NYC and other US jurisdictions that use preferential voting had an indicative two candidate count on election night between the two candidates who were thought likely to make the final two. This would mean they wouldn’t usually have to wait for the preference tabulation to call a winner.

Andrew Cuomo was the Democratic governor of New York state from 2011 until his resignation in 2021 owing to sexual harassment allegations. He was elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014 and 2018. Despite the circumstances of his resignation as governor, Cuomo has a clear lead after preferences in most NYC mayoral polls.

Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani (a socialist) are very likely to be the final two candidates, with Cuomo leading Mamdani by double digit margins after preferences in many polls. However, a late Emerson College poll gives Mamdani a four-point lead over Cuomo after preferences.

Current NYC mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat in 2021, is running for re-election as an independent. Adams was indicted last September on federal bribery and fraud charges, but in February federal prosecutors were ordered to dismiss all charges against Adams, who is seen as close to Donald Trump. While the primary uses preferential voting, the November general election will use first past the post. Emerson College polls suggest either Cuomo or Mamdani would easily win in November.

Trump’s national US ratings and Israeli polls

At time of writing on Tuesday, Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls was -6.0, down from -3.7 in early June, with 52.0% disapproving and 45.9% approving. Trump’s net approval on his strongest issue (immigration) has fallen about eight points since early June to -4.1, perhaps owing to the reaction to his handling of protests in Los Angeles.

G. Elliott Morris, who used to run FiveThirtyEight before it was axed, said in polls taken before Trump announced the US bombing of Iran on Saturday night US time, 57% opposed this action while 21% supported it. This compares with 54-41 support for initial military action against ISIS in 2014, 71-27 support for Iraq in 2003 and 88-10 for Afghanistan in 2001.

The next Israeli election is not due until October 2026. Israel uses national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold to elect its 120 MPs, with 61 needed for a majority. At the November 2022 election, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and allied parties won a majority for the right with 64 seats. This election ended a run of five elections in four years.

Current polls give the governing parties combined about 50 seats, with about 65 for the opposition parties. An Arab party that is not part of either the government or opposition has the remaining five seats. Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13 has not made a difference.

South Korea and Poland elections wrap

The centre-left Democrats win the South Korean presidential election, while PiS wins in Poland. Also: Canada’s final seat numbers after recounts and the US Democratic deaths that helped pass Trump’s “big beautiful bill”.

11:51am Friday UK Labour has gained a single-member seat from the Scottish National Party at a Scottish parliamentary by-election. Labour’s vote share was down 2.0% since the 2021 Scottish election to 31.6%, but the SNP was down 16.8% to 29.4%. The far-right Reform came third with 26.1% (new) and the Conservatives were down 11.5% to 6.0%. Scotland uses a mixture of single-member seats and proportional representation to elect its 129 MPs. The SNP is in a minority government supported by the Greens. The next Scottish election is due by May 2026.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The South Korean presidential election was held Tuesday using first past the post. The previous president of the right-wing People Power Party, Yoon Suk Yeol, had been impeached and removed for declaring martial law in December, so this election was held about two years early. The centre-left Democratic nominee, Lee Jae-myung, defeated PPP’s Kim Moon-soo by a 49.4-41.2 margin with 8.3% for a third party candidate. At the March 2022 election, Yoon had defeated Lee by a 0.7% margin.

Lee will be sworn in as president today, without a transition period. Democrats have a large parliamentary majority after they won April 2024 parliamentary elections. Democrats have gained unified control of government until at least the 2028 parliamentary elections.

At Sunday’s Polish presidential runoff election, Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the economically left but socially conservative Law and Justice (PiS) defeated Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the centrist and pro-Western Civic Coalition by a 50.9-49.1 margin. In the May 18 first round, Trzaskowski won 31.4%, Nawrocki 29.5% and the far-right Confederation 14.8%. Trzaskowski had been well ahead in polls before the first round, but polls taken after the first round showed a near-tie.

In October 2023 the Civic Coalition and allies won a parliamentary majority, but the PiS held the presidency, and a presidential veto on legislation can only be overcome with a 60% majority, which the government does not have. With PiS retaining the presidency, they will continue to have veto power over legislation.

Canada, the US, the Netherlands and Portugal

The final seat count from the April 28 Canadian federal election is 169 Liberals out of 343 (up nine from 160 out of 338 in 2021), 144 Conservatives (up 25), 22 Quebec Bloc (BQ) (down ten), seven New Democratic Party (down 18) and one Green (down one). The Liberals are three seats short of a majority.

In my May 20 article, I covered two of the four recounts, one where a Liberal overturned a 44-vote BQ lead to win by just one vote, and the other that confirmed a narrow Liberal win over the Conservatives. In the remaining two recounts, the Conservatives overturned a 12-vote Liberal lead in one seat to win by 12 votes, and the Conservatives won another seat by just four votes, with their margin reduced from 77 votes on the original count.

Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill (BBB)” passed the US House of Representatives by just a 215-214 margin on May 22. At the November 2024 elections, Republicans won the House by 220-215. Since then, two Republicans who resigned were replaced in special elections on April 1. In March two Democrats died and another died on May 21. Special elections to replace them have not yet been held, with the earliest scheduled for September. Republicans thus currently have a 220-212 House majority. Had these three Democrats still been alive, the BBB may have failed.

Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls has recovered from its low in late April. His net approval was -9.7 in late April, but is now -3.7, with 50.2% disapproving and 46.5% approving. The stock market’s recovery from Trump’s tariff chaos in early April has helped Trump.

The Dutch government collapsed on Tuesday after Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV withdrew from the governing coalition owing to disputes over immigration policy. A new election will probably be held in October. The Netherlands uses national proportional representation without a threshold to elect its MPs.

The Portuguese parliamentary election was held on May 18 using PR by region. Four of the 230 seats were reserved for expatriate Portuguese and were not counted on election night. With these seats now included, results were 91 seats for the conservative AD (up 11 since 2024), 60 for the far-right Chega (up 10) and 58 for the centre-left Socialists (down 20).

European elections wrap

A pro-Western centrist wins the Romanian presidential runoff, but the left performs dismally in Portugal. Also: Canadian recounts and South Korean polls ahead of the June 3 election.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

On Sunday European elections were held in Romania, Portugal and Poland. At the Romanian presidential runoff election, the pro-Western centrist Nicușor Dan, who is a mathematician and the current mayor of Bucharest, defeated the far-right George Simion by a 53.6-46.4 margin. Dan had qualified for the runoff with 21.0% in the May 4 first round, edging out another pro-Western candidate who won 20.1%, while Simion dominated with 41.0%. This election was rerun after the first election in December was annulled by the courts owing to concerns about Russian influence.

Portugal used proportional representation by region to elect its 230 MPs. Four seats are reserved for expatriate Portuguese and won’t be decided until later. This was a snap election called after the conservative AD lost a confidence vote. The AD won 89 seats (up nine since the March 2024 election), the centre-left Socialists 58 (down 20), the far-right Chega 58 (up eight), the economically right Liberal Initiative nine (up one) and the Greens six (up two). This was the Socialists’ worst seat share since 1987.

Sunday was the first round of the Polish presidential election, with the runoff on June 1. Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the centrist and pro-Western Civic Coalition, won 31.4%, followed by Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the economically left but socially conservative Law and Justice (PiS) on 29.5% and the far-right Confederation on 14.8%. In runoff polling, Trzaskowski led in a first round exit poll by 47-38 with 15% undecided, and he has led in most runoff polls. A win for Trzaskowski would give the Civic Coalition and its allies, who have a parliamentary majority, control of government, with PiS currently holding the presidency.

In case you missed it (I posted this on the day of the Australian election), I had a results wrap of the May 1 UK local elections. The far-right Reform won 30% of the BBC’s Projected National Share, with Labour on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 17% and the Conservatives on 15%. Since these elections, Reform has surged in national polls. In the Election Maps UK poll aggregate, Reform now has 29.1%, Labour 23.3%, the Conservatives 18.6%, the Lib Dems 14.2% and the Greens 8.9%.

The 140 Albanian parliamentary seats were elected using PR at the May 11 election. The governing Socialists won a fourth successive term, with 83 seats (up nine since 2021), the conservative Democrats won 50 seats (down 13) and others seven (up four). The election was marred by widespread misuse of public resources and institutional power by the Socialists.

Canada and South Korea

In my May 1 wrap of the April 28 Canadian federal election, I said the centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 seats, the Conservatives 144, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven and the Greens one. It appears that rechecking put the Liberals ahead in a seat the Conservatives led, and the BQ ahead in a seat the Liberals led.

However, a recount in the BQ-led seat reversed the result, with the Liberals winning by just one vote, overturning a 44-vote BQ lead. A recount in a seat the Liberals won narrowly against the Conservatives confirmed the initial result. Results of two recounts are still pending, one with a narrow Liberal margin over the Conservatives and the other with a narrow Conservative margin over the Liberals. If remaining recounts confirm the initial results, the overall seat totals will be 170 Liberals, 143 Conservatives, 22 BQ, seven NDP and one Green, putting the Liberals two seats short of a majority.

The South Korean presidential election will be held on June 3, about two years earlier than scheduled after the previous president of the right-wing People Power Party (PPP) was impeached then removed from office. The president is elected by first past the post. Polls have the centre-left Democratic nominee, Lee Jae-myung, leading PPP’s Kim Moon-soo by between seven and 22 points. Democrats have a large parliamentary majority, so a win for Lee would give them control of government until the next parliamentary elections in 2028.

UK Runcorn and Helsby by-election live

The far-right Reform is a good chance to win this by-election, and is likely to gain massively at local elections. Also: a wrap of Monday’s Canadian election.

Results wrap

According to Wikipedia, Reform won 30% of the BBC’s Projected National Share (up 28 from the 2024 council elections), Labour 20% (down 14), the Lib Dems 17% (steady), the Tories 15% (down 10) and the Greens 11% (down two). If changes are measured from the last time these wards were contested in 2021, Reform is up 30, the Tories down 21, Labour down nine and the Lib Dems steady. It’s the first council elections where the combined share for the Tories and Labour has been below 50%.

With all 23 councils that held elections declared, Reform won 677 councillors (all new), the Lib Dems 370 (up 163), the Tories 317 (down 676), Labour 99 (down 186) and the Greens 80 (up 45). Councils controlled are 10 Reform (new), three Lib Dems (up three), zero Tories (down 16), zero Labour (down one) and ten with no overall control (up four). Of the six mayoralties contested, Labour won three, Reform two and the Tories one.

Live Commentary

8:48pm Slow progress in the council elections, with just over 150 out of over 1,600 total seats declared so far. Reform has 81 councillors (up 81), the Tories 42 (down 66), Labour 14 (down 13) and the Lib Dems nine (up five).

3:14pm Reform has GAINED Runcorn and Helsby from Labour by just six votes.

2:35pm Labour won the West of England and Doncaster mayoralties. In Doncaster, Labour was down 11 points to 32.6%, just ahead of Reform on 31.6% with 26.0% for the Tories. In W of England, Labour won25%, Reform 22%, the Greens 20%, the Tories 17% and the Lib Dems 14%.

1:55pm Labour won the North Tyneside mayoralty by 30.2-29.4 over Reform with 20.5% for the Tories. But Labour’s vote was down 23 points from 2021, while the Tories were down 11.

1:49pm There’s a recount in Runcorn and Helsby. It appears Reform were leading Labour by four votes going into the recount.

10:59am John Curtice says in nine wards that had the same boundaries as in 2021, the Tory vote is down 23 points and Labour down 10. The by-election declaration is expected about 12pm, which I’ll miss.

10:46am Friday So far Reform has won 15 councillors (up 15), the Tories six (down five) and Labour one (down nine).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

A UK parliamentary by-election will occur today for the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March after being sentenced for assault. At the 2024 election, Labour defeated the far-right Reform in this seat by 52.9-18.1 with 16.0% for the Conservatives, 6.4% for the Greens and 5.1% for the Liberal Democrats. Two seat polls conducted in March gave Reform 3-5 point leads over Labour. Elections covered in this article all use first past the post.

UK local government elections will also be held today. These are held every May, but on a four-year cycle, so most seats up at these elections last faced election in 2021. The BBC calculates a Projected National Share (PNS) for each year’s elections, which allows results for a particular election to be compared to the previous year’s election, and also to the election four years ago. Only English councils are included in this year’s elections.

In 2021, the last time these seats were contested, Boris Johnson was popular, and the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Lib Dems. In the 2024 local elections, held two months before the general election where Labour won a landslide, Labour won the PNS by 34-25 over the Conservatives, with 17% for the Lib Dems and 12% for the Greens. Usually, PNS only gives vote shares for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but Reform should be included this year.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Reform 25.4% of the vote (up 1.5 since my April 19 article), Labour 23.9% (down 0.5), the Conservatives 21.3% (down 1.2), the Lib Dems 13.7% (up 0.1) and the Greens 8.9% (down 0.1). Reform has overtaken Labour to lead. If these vote shares are reflected at the local elections, Reform will make massive gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Labour also slumping. Polls conducted in April gave Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30.

We are unlikely to see results from the parliamentary by-election until several hours after polls close. I will be out for two hours from 11am Friday. Given the proximity to the Australian election, I don’t intend to follow these elections as closely as I normally would.

Canadian election wrap

At Monday’s Canadian federal election, the centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 seats (up nine from 160 of 338 in 2021), the Conservatives won 144 seats (up 25), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22 (down ten), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven (down 18) and the Greens one (down one). The Liberals were three seats short of the 172 needed for a majority.

Vote shares were 43.7% Liberals (up 11.1%), 41.3% Conservatives (up 7.6), 6.3% BQ (down 1.3%) (27.9% in Quebec), 6.3% NDP (down 11.5%), 1.3% Greens (down 1.0%) and 0.7% for the far-right People’s (down 4.2%). Turnout was 68.7% (up 6.4%).

This election was far more proportional than in 2021. FPTP can be roughly proportional, but only if the two biggest parties get a high combined vote share, and there’s a small gap between these two parties. This election had the highest two-party share since 1958. It resembles the UK 2017 election, when the big two parties also surged.

The CBC Poll Tracker’s final aggregate of national polls gave the Liberals a 42.8-39.2 lead over the Conservatives, so the 3.6-point margin slightly overstated the Liberals’ 2.4-point election margin. Two of the three polls that had one-day surveys conducted the day before the election were very accurate, with Liaison giving the Liberals a two-point lead and Nanos a 2.7-point lead.

Seat estimates overstated the Liberals with the Tracker’s point estimate giving the Liberals a 189-125 seat lead. I said previously that I expected the Liberals’ vote efficiency to drop because of the crash in NDP support.

I believe the Liberals slid from a peak lead of 7.1 points in the Tracker on April 8 due to Mark Carney’s fading honeymoon from replacing Justin Trudeau as PM on March 14. Labor in Australia is not affected by a fading honeymoon.

Canadian election live

Live commentary on the Canadian results today. The Liberals remain ahead of the Conservatives in national vote share, and have a good chance to win a majority of seats.

Live Commentary

6:57am Wednesday The Liberals will hold a minority government after winning 169 of the 343 seats, three short of a majority. The Conservatives won 144 seats, the BQ 22, the NDP seven and the Greens one. National vote shares were 43.7% Liberals, 41.3% Conservatives, 6.3% BQ, 6.3% NDP 1.3% Greens and just 0.7% for the far-right People’s.

9:06pm There are still special ballots remaining to be counted, which are cast by mail by voters who will be away from their home divisions on election day. I expect these to favour the Liberals just like absent votes favour Labor in Aus. Counting will resume at 11:30pm AEST tonight. On current figures, the Liberals will be just short of a majority of seats. They’ve won or are leading in 168 (172 is needed for a majority). Poilievre lost his seat.

5:33pm NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has announced he will resign. The Liberals won Singh’s seat.

4:25pm I’ve done a write-up for The Conversation on the Canadian results, and also covered Trump’s slumping US ratings. Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is looking gone in his own seat of Carleton.

2:57pm Tory leader Pierre Poilievre is trailing the Libs by 51.6-45.1 in his own seat of Carleton with 145 of 266 booths in.

2:47pm The Tories have made a number of gains in British Columbia from the collapse of the NDP vote as it hasn’t all gone to the Libs in NDP-held seats.

1:52pm The Tories have gained Windsor West from the NDP because the Lib surge meant the anti-Tory vote in that seat was split between the Libs and NDP.

1:45pm The Liberals have won or are leading in 163 seats, the Tories in 147, the BQ in 24, the NDP in 10 and the Greens in one. Popular votes are 42.6% Libs to 41.7% Tories, 7.9% BQ and 5.4% NDP. With such a high two-party share, the smaller parties are doing well to win as many seats as they are. It looks as if the Lib vote was not as efficiently distributed as in 2021, as I predicted.

1:02pm The CBC’s results are back. The Libs lead by 44.0-40.9 on popular votes with 8% for the BQ and 4.9% NDP. Seats are 159 Libs, 143 Tories, 24 BQ, 10 NDP and one Green. On current counts, the Libs will be short of a majority.

12:40pm With some results from 319 of the 343 seats, it’s 158 Libs, 130 Tories, 23 BQ and eight NDP. If this holds, it wouldn’t quite be a majority for the Libs.

12:27pm CTV News results has the Libs leading or elected in 146 seats, the Tories in 113, the BQ in 24 and the NDP in five.

12:20pm The CBC’s results site has crashed! But they project the Liberals will form the next government, no projection yet for whether it’s minority or majority.

12:07pm The Libs are leading the seat count now by 108-79 with 16 BQ and 3 NDP. They lead the popular vote by 50.6-38.5. This is now looking like a Liberal landslide.

12:04pm The CBC has called a Lib GAIN from Tory in a Nova Scotia seat.

11:58am So far in Ontario, the most populous province with 121 seats, the Libs lead the Tories by 32-22 in seats although the Tories are leading on popular votes by 47.5-45.7. Rural booths are probably reporting first, so it’s likely there’s a pro-Tory bias in votes counted so far.

11:52am Libs leading in seats by 72-52 over Tories with 10 BQ and 1 NDP.

11:40am Libs now leading the seat count over the Tories by 37-26 on popular votes of 51.5-40.1. BQ leading in 12 seats and NDP in one.

11:29am With polls about to close in the large majority of Canada, Libs lead in seats by 22-10 and in popular votes by 52.2-40.4. Two Quebec seats were in Atlantic time and have reported results, with the BQ leading in both.

11:08am Liberal popular vote lead now just over ten points.

10:52am Liberals’ popular vote margin over the Tories up to eight points. I’ve read comments here from BTsays that pollsters had the Libs doing better with early votes than on election day. These votes won’t appear until later.

10:32am The CBC has called a GAIN for the Tories from the Libs in Long Range Mountain.

10:29am The Liberals are now leading the seat count by 22-9 and the vote count by 50-44. But they’re NOT 21 points ahead in Atlantic Canada.

10:06am The Liberals have now taken a three-point lead in popular votes.

10:01am The Liberals lead the Tories by 16 seats to 5, but the Tories lead in popular votes currently by 48-46. This isn’t looking like a 21-point Liberal popular vote margin in Atlantic Canada, but perhaps votes counted are mostly rural and/or the Liberals will do better once the pre-poll votes are counted.

9:44am In Newfoundland, the 2021 result was a Liberal win by 47.7-32.5 in popular votes over the Tories and the Liberals won six of the seven seats. Currently the Tories are leading by 52.1-42.5 in popular votes, although the Liberals are leading in four of the seven seats. Perhaps votes counted so far are more rural.

9:07am The first polls have closed in one of the small Atlantic provinces that’s 30 minutes ahead of the rest of Atl Can. The CBC results are here.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Results for the Canadian federal election will be out today. First past the post is used to elect the 343 MPs, with 172 seats required for a majority. Polls in the 32 Atlantic Canada seats close by 9:30am AEST. At 11:30am AEST, the large majority of polls close simultaneously owing to staggered polling hours across three time zones. At 12pm AEST, the final polls close in British Columbia (43 seats).

Vote counting will initially be fast, but will slow down as election-day booths are exhausted, with the final booths being early voting centres, like in Australia. Elections Canada said 7.3 million had voted during the advance voting period from April 18-21, an increase of 25% from 2021. This represents about 25% of all eligible voters. Canadian media don’t attempt to use booth-matched results. Seat totals are reported as “won” (called for a candidate) and “leading”.

The CBC Poll Tracker was updated for the final time late Sunday (the last pre-election day), and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.8% of the vote (up 0.5 since my previous Canadian article on Saturday), the Conservatives 39.2% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.1% (down 0.5), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.0% (steady) (26.1% in Quebec), the Greens 1.8% (down 0.5) and the far-right People’s 1.3% (down 0.1).

Seat point estimates are 189 Liberals (down one since Saturday), 125 Conservatives (steady), 23 BQ (up one), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals a 70% chance of a majority, down from 73% previously. They have a 19% chance to win the most seats but not a majority. The Conservatives have a 10% chance to win the most seats and just a 1% chance of a majority. The polls would need to be very wrong for this to occur.

The Liberal lead over the Conservatives in the Tracker has fallen from its peak of 7.1 points on April 8 to 3.6 points now. The most likely reason for this movement is that Mark Carney’s honeymoon from replacing Justin Trudeau on March 14 as Liberal leader and PM has faded.

On Saturday night, at least 11 people were killed when an SUV drove into a crowd of Filipinos in Vancouver. This was likely a racist attack against Filipinos, so it shouldn’t hurt the Liberals. In Liaison, Nanos and Forum polls conducted Sunday (one-day polls), the Liberal lead was respectively 2, 2.7 and 4 points.

Atlantic Canada has four low-population provinces, and the Liberals hold a 21-point lead over the Conservatives in this region in the Tracker.  The early results from Atlantic Canada could give clues about how accurate the polls are.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

However, there would have been many seats in 2021 where the Liberal’s margin was relatively low owing to a high NDP or BQ vote. With support for the NDP halved from 17.8% in 2021, the Liberal margin in these seats will increase, leading to more Liberal vote wastage and a less efficiently distributed vote.

UK local elections and a parliamentary by-election on Thursday

UK local government elections and aparliamentary by-election in Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby will be held on Thursday, with polls closing at 7am AEST Friday. I don’t expect results from the by-election for several hours after polls close. I previously covered these elections on April 19.

Canadian election minus three days

The Liberals’ lead narrows ahead of the Canadian election results on Tuesday AEST, but they are still likely to win a majority of seats. Other upcoming and past elections are also covered.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on Monday, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. Polls close on Tuesday AEST, with polls in the 32 Atlantic Canada seats closed by 9:30am AEST Tuesday. At 11:30am AEST, the large majority of polls close simultaneously owing to staggered polling hours across three time zones. At 12pm AEST, the final polls close in British Columbia (43 seats).

Vote counting will initially be fast, but will slow down as election-day booths are exhausted, with the final booths being early voting centres, like in Australia. Elections Canada said 7.3 million had voted during the advance voting period from April 18-21, an increase of 25% from 2021. This represents about 25% of all eligible voters.

The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Friday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.3% of the vote (down 1.7 since my previous Canadian article last Saturday), the Conservatives 38.6% (up 1.5), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.6% (up 0.1), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.0% (up 0.6) (25.6% in Quebec), the Greens 2.3% (down 0.1) and the far-right People’s 1.4% (down 0.3).

Seat point estimates are 190 Liberals (down 11 since last Saturday), 125 Conservatives (up nine), 22 BQ (up two), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals a 73% chance of a majority, down from 87% previously. They have a 17% chance to win the most seats but not a majority. A Canadian YouGov MRP poll has a Liberal majority, with 185 seats as its central prediction.

Atlantic Canada has four low-population provinces, and the Liberals hold a 20-point lead over the Conservatives in this region in the Tracker.  The early results from Atlantic Canada could give clues about how accurate the polls are.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

However, there would have been many seats in 2021 where the Liberal’s margin was relatively low owing to a high NDP or BQ vote. With support for the NDP halved from 17.8% in 2021, the Liberal margin in these seats will increase, leading to more Liberal vote wastage and a less efficiently distributed vote.

I covered the Canadian election and Donald Trump’s sliding US ratings for The Conversation on Wednesday. Since this article, Trump’s net approval has slid a further 2.4 points to -7.8 in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls (52.2% disapprove, 44.4% approve).

Poland, Romania and Ecuador

The Polish presidential election will be held on May 18 with a runoff on June 1. Incumbent Andrzej Duda of the socially right but economically left PiS can’t run again. There had been a surge for the far-right KON’s candidate, but that surge has abated, and the final two will likely be the economically conservative but socially liberal PO’s candidate against PiS. The PO is likely to win, and thus gain control of government after winning the October 2023 parliamentary election.

In December the Romanian courts annulled the presidential election results shortly before the runoff, and there will be a re-run on May 4 (first round) and May 18 (runoff). The courts rejected the nomination of the far-right candidate who had won the original first round. Another far-right candidate is very likely to win the first round, with the polls disagreeing on which of three candidates will also qualify for the runoff.

At the April 13 Ecuadorian presidential runoff election, the incumbent economic conservative defeated the left’s candidate by 55.6-44.4. However, the left will control parliament, which was elected on February 9 by proportional representation, with 67 of the 151 seats for the main left-wing coalition and nine for an indigenous left-wing party, to 70 seats for conservative parties.

Canadian election minus nine days

The Liberal lead drops slightly, but they are still likely to win a seat majority on April 28. Also covered: the May 1 UK local elections and a parliamentary by-election.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Friday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 43.7% of the vote (down 0.3 since my previous Canadian article on April 10), the Conservatives 37.7% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.5% (steady), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.4% (steady) (23.7% in Quebec), the Greens 2.4% (steady) and the far-right People’s 1.7% (steady).

Seat point estimates are 197 Liberals (down four since my April 10 article), 122 Conservatives (up six), 18 BQ (down two), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 88% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 87% previously. The Liberal lead had dropped to 5.3 points in Thursday’s Tracker update before recovering on Friday.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in very safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

There were two leaders’ debates: a French debate on Wednesday and an English debate on Thursday. Both debates had the leaders of the NDP and BQ as well as the Liberal and Conservative leaders. A snap Abacus Data poll, taken after the English debate, gave Liberal leader and PM Mark Carney a net +37 positive rating, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had a net +23 positive rating. The NDP and BQ leaders did not impress voters.

We will need to wait three more days for voting intention polls to be fully taken after both debates. These debates were probably the last opportunity for a Conservative revival before the election. Unless the polls are significantly overstating the Liberals, the Liberals should win.

In an early April YouGov Canadian poll, by 64-25, respondents said the US was unfriendly or an enemy (50-33 in February). By 84-11, they opposed Canada becoming part of the US. If they had been able to vote in the 2024 US presidential election, Kamala Harris would have defeated Donald Trump by 57-18 among Canadians.

UK local elections and parliamentary by-election

UK local government elections will be held on May 1. These are held every May, but on a four-year cycle, so most seats up at these elections last faced election in 2021. The BBC calculates a Projected National Share (PNS) for each year’s elections, which allows results for a particular election to be compared to the previous year’s election, and also to the election four years ago. Only English councils are included in this year’s elections.

In 2021, the last time these seats were contested, Boris Johnson was popular, and the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Liberal Democrats. In the 2024 local elections, held two months before the general election where Labour won a landslide, Labour won the PNS by 34-25 over the Conservatives, with 17% for the Lib Dems and 12% for the Greens. Usually PNS only gives vote shares for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but the far-right Reform should be included this year.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Labour 24.4% of the vote, Reform 23.9%, the Conservatives 22.5%, the Lib Dems 13.6% and the Greens 9.0%. If these vote shares are reflected at the local elections, Reform will make massive gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Labour also slumping. Polls conducted in April give Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30.

There will also be a parliamentary by-election on May 1 for the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby. Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March after being sentenced for assault. At the 2024 election, Labour defeated Reform in this seat by 52.9-18.1 with 16.0% for the Conservatives, 6.4% for the Greens and 5.1% for the Lib Dems. Two seat polls conducted in March gave Reform 3-5 point leads over Labour.

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