Adrian Beaumont – Page 2 – The Poll Bludger

UK local, Scottish and Welsh elections minus four days

Two polls have a sizeable swing back to Labour before Friday’s (AEST) elections. Also: Joe Biden’s ratings after 100 days and German election polls.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

UK local government elections will be held on Thursday, with polls closing at 7am Friday AEST. Elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments will also be held. Owing to COVID, no elections were held in 2020, so these elections will combine the normal 2021 with the rescheduled 2020 elections.

The key statistic for assessing the performance of the parties is the Projected National Share (PNS). This is calculated by assuming elections were held across the whole UK, correcting for bias in where elections were actually held.

In the 2016 cycle, which would normally have been up in 2020, the PNS was Labour 31%, Conservative 30%, Lib Dem 15% and UKIP 12%. In 2017, it was Conservative 38%, Labour 27% and Lib Dem 18%. The 2017 local elections were held a month before the 2017 general election at which the Conservatives lost their majority.

The Scottish and Welsh elections use first past the post with regional lists. Parties that win a large proportion of FPTP seats will earn few regional seats, so the system is far more proportional than the simple FPTP used at UK general elections and most councils.

National UK polls currently give the Conservatives about 42%, Labour 35%, the Lib Dems 8% and the Greens 5%. In the last week, two polls have shown a shift to Labour, with the Conservative lead in Survation dropping from six points to one, and in Opinium from 11 points to five. This narrowing has not been replicated in all polls. If it is real, perhaps it is attributable to PM Boris Johnson’s recent scandals.

In Scotland, the Britain Elects tracker has the Scottish National Party (SNP) on 62 of the 129 seats, three short of a majority. The Conservatives have 26 seats, Labour 25, the Greens 11 and Lib Dems five. This outcome would likely result in a continuation of the existing SNP/Green coalition. There has been a recent slide in SNP support in both FPTP and regional list polling, and No to independence has pulled ahead 51-49.

Labour is likely to remain the largest party at the Welsh election, though they will find it difficult to find a governing partner. In other important contests, Labour’s Sadiq Khan is certain to retain London’s mayoralty. There is also a Westminster by-election in Labour-held Hartlepool. In 2019, Labour would probably have lost Hartlepool, which they have held since 1964, if not for vote splitting between the Conservatives and Brexit party.

After first 100 days, Biden has 54% approval rating

It is 102 days since Joe Biden began his term as US president on January 20. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his ratings with all polls are 54.0% approve, 41.1% disapprove (net +12.9%). With polls of likely or registered voters, Biden’s ratings are 53.8% approve, 42.0% disapprove (net +11.8%). For the duration of his presidency, Biden’s approval has been between 53% and 55%.

FiveThirtyEight has ratings of presidents since Harry Truman (president from 1945-53). At this stage of their presidencies, Biden’s net approval is only ahead of Donald Trump and Gerald Ford (who took over after Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974).

The US economy, boosted by stimulus payments, appears to be recovering very well from COVID, but attempted illegal immigration has surged since Biden became president. The key question is how Biden’s ratings look at the November 2022 midterms, when the president’s party normally loses seats.

Democrats performed badly at a federal House by-election in Texas on Saturday. Trump beat Biden by just three points in this district, but Republicans overall crushed Democrats 62-37. Democrats failed to make the top two, meaning the runoff will be R vs R.

Greens narrowly lead CDU/CSU in Germany

In January the moderate Armin Laschet won the CDU leadership, but was challenged for the joint leadership of the CDU/CSU by the CSU’s Markus Söder. The CSU only runs in the state of Bavaria, and is regarded as more right-wing than the CDU. On April 19, the CDU’s federal board ruled in Laschet’s favour by 31-9.

Since this vote, the Greens have surged into the mid to high 20’s, while the CDU/CSU has fallen to the low 20’s. Overall, the left-wing parties (Greens, Social Democrats and Left) are a little ahead of the right-wing parties (CDU/CSU, far-right AfD and pro-business FDP). Will this polling movement hold up until the German election on September 26? Germany uses proportional representation with a 5% threshold.

Israeli election minus three days; UK local elections minus seven weeks

A right coalition under Netanyahu looking likely in Israel, while UK Labour’s polling is poor, and support for Scottish independence drops.

Live Israeli election commentary

6:40pm With 87% in, Netanyahu’s right bloc has declined to a combined 59 of the 120 seats, two short of a majority. A key reason is that the United Arab List, which was below the 3.25% threshold previously, is now back up to 4.0%. Also, Tel Aviv, a bastion of the left in Israel, reports late.

2:55pm With about half the votes counted, OryxMaps has the right-wing parties aligned with Netanyahu getting a total of 65 of the 120 Knesset seats. This is currently biased towards the right.

9:55am An updated exit poll, based on late voters, now gives Netanyahu’s right bloc 60 of the 120 seats, one seat short of a majority. As I said before, it’s still highly possible for Netanyahu to form a government even if his bloc is just short.

7:30am Wednesday The OryxMaps Twitter account has details of three exit polls. While there are differences in individual party support, all three give the most probable right-wing coalition (Likud, Yamina, Shas, UTJ and Religious Zionists) 61 of the 120 seats, enough for a majority.

Counting is slow in Israel, with most votes not counted until the afternoon our time. It will take a few more days to get final results.

The Israeli election will be held on Tuesday, with polls closing at 7am Wednesday AEDT. This election will be held just over a year after the last election. Owing to failure to form a governing coalition, there were three elections in a year from 2019-20.

After the March 2020 election, a grand coalition was formed between Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and Benny Gantz’ Blue & White, with Gantz recanting on his promise to not form a government with Netanyahu owing to COVID. Before entering negotiations with Netanyahu, Gantz had received support from 61 of the 120 Knesset members; he threw away what is likely to be the best chance to defeat Netanyahu.

Under the agreement, Netanyahu and Gantz would rotate the premiership, with Netanyahu having the first 18 months. The agreement broke down at the end of 2020, when Gantz realized (surprise! surprise!) that Netanyahu had no intention of giving up being PM. The Knesset was dissolved in late December.

The 120 Knesset members are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold. Blue & White won 33 seats at the 2020 election, but are now only polling just above this threshold.

Likud is easily the largest party in the polls with about 31 seats, well ahead of Yesh Atid with 18. Religious parties (UTJ, Shas and Religious Zionist) are likely to win 20 combined seats. The right-wing Yamina is on about nine seats. Likud plus these four parties is about 60 of the 120 seats, very close to a majority.

Even if these five parties fall short of a majority, Netanyahu may be able to form a government with the assistance of former leadership rival Gideon Saar’s New Hope. New Hope has several former Likud members, and polls give it about eight seats.

It isn’t just the opposition’s disarray that is helping Netanyahu, but also Israel’s successful vaccination program; it is the world’s leader on vaccine doses administered per capita. From a peak of 101 COVID deaths on January 20, Isreal’s daily COVID death rate has fallen into single figures.

Bad polling for UK Labour ahead of local elections

Local elections will be held throughout England on May 6, and also include elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Owing to COVID cancellation of 2020’s elections, there will be far more seats than usual at stake.

Last April, Keir Starmer easily won the Labour leadership. Like most incumbents, the Conservatives had a polling surge in their favour as a result of COVID. But with deaths increasing to a peak of more than 1,500 on several days in January, Labour was in a near-tie with the Conservatives in late 2020.

The UK’s vaccination drive, with 42 doses per 100 people, has been far better than the European Union (13 per 100). As in Israel, UK deaths have fallen dramatically from their January peak. As a result, the Conservatives have opened about a six-point lead over Labour.

A bad performance for Labour in the local elections probably means little for the next general election, not due until 2024. But Starmer could be ousted. It takes 20% of Labour’s MPs to nominate a challenger. Much of Labour’s left-wing membership voted for Starmer in the expectation he would perform much better than Jeremy Corbyn at the disastrous 2019 election. If Labour can’t poll better, Starmer could be replaced by a left-winger.

As with UK Labour’s support, support for Scottish independence has recently fallen. A ComRes poll in January gave Yes to independence a 13-point lead, but in March they had No up by two points, with other pollsters similar. There has been a recent dip for the SNP that could cost them a majority in the Scottish election; there is a far more proportional system for Welsh and Scottish elections than UK general elections.

German and Dutch elections

In Germany, there has been a slump in support for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU that gives the three left-wing parties a realistic chance of forming government at the September election. The left nearly won outright majorities at two recent state elections. However, Wednesday’s Dutch election was dismal for the left. I covered these elections on my personal website on Friday.

Georgia Senate runoffs live

Live commentary on today’s Georgia Senate runoffs. This post will also follow tomorrow’s certification of the Electoral College. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

8:18pm At about 3:40am Washington time, the Electoral College vote was finally certified. As expected, Biden won by 306 votes to 232.

8:15pm The last post was about the objection to Arizona. For Pennsylvania, 138 Republicans objected to democracy, with just 64 opposed. That’s 68% of House Republicans who objected to democracy. In the Senate, only seven of the 51 current Republicans objected.

4:20pm In the House, 121 Republicans voted to object, with 83 opposed, so 59% of all House Republicans that cast a vote objected to democracy, with Democrats unanimously opposed. The roll call shows that House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy voted to object.

2:15pm Despite the riots, six anti-democratic Republican senators have objected to the certification of the Electoral College. Their names are: Cruz, Hyde-Smith, Kennedy, Hawley, Marshall and Tuberville. Tuberville defeated Democrat Doug Jones in Alabama in November.

12:15pm In a YouGov snap poll on today’s riots at the Capitol, by 62-32 voters saw them as a threat to democracy, but Republicans disagreed by 68-27. Overall, voters thought Trump should be immediately removed from office by 50-42, but Republicans disagreed by 85-10.

12:07pm Ossoff’s lead now up to 0.8% or over 25,000 votes, with more Dem friendly votes left to count.

9:15am Not the most important news today, but US media have CALLED the Georgia regular Senate election for Jon Ossoff, who currently leads Perdue by 0.6% or over 27,000 votes. The Senate will be tied at 50-50, with Democrats making three net gains this election cycle. Kamala Harris will have the casting vote to give Democrats control of the Senate.

7:33am Since the November election, Trump and his henchmen have ranted about how the election was stolen. The violent protests in the US Capitol today are a direct result of these completely unfounded election fraud claims.

7:22am Trump supporters have stormed the US Capitol as Congress was supposed to meet to certify the Electoral College vote. Mike Pence will not attempt to overturn the results, and Mitch McConnell has condemned those who would object.

7:15am Thursday The vast majority of outstanding votes are in Democratic counties, so both Ossoff and Warnock will extend their leads.

9:11pm Ossoff now leads by 0.4% with 98% in. The projection is still for an Ossoff win by 1.1%.

6:24pm Some more of DeKalb is in, putting Warnock up by 1.0% and Ossoff retakes the lead from Perdue by 0.2% or 9.5k votes. The networks and the AP have CALLED for Warnock.

5:37pm Apparently there’s a technical glitch in DeKalb county that is delaying the count of votes that should put Ossoff over the top.

5:30pm A small turnout differential in Democrats’ favour was partly responsible for the result. Also, in November Perdue won by 1.8% while Biden defeated Trump by 0.3% in Georgia. There were a small number of Biden/Perdue voters who this time likely voted Dem.

5:26pm Compared with November, turnout was slightly higher in Biden and Black precincts than in Trump and rural precincts, but not much higher. Overall turnout will be about 90% of November levels.

4:40pm There are still votes remaining in DeKalb, which is only at 91% reported. When those votes report, Ossoff should take and keep the lead.

3:56pm Wasserman CALLS the regular Senate election for Ossoff. That gives Democrats two Senate gains from Georgia, and the Senate is tied 50-50. Kamala Harris will break the tie for the Dems.

3:40pm Perdue and Ossoff almost tied now, with Perdue ahead by a few hundred votes.

3:36pm Perdue’s lead down to just 0.08%.

3:30pm Perdue leads by 0.2% with 95% in, but there’s still more metro Atlanta left, while Rep counties are used up.

3:19pm A big Dem dump reported, and now it’s Warnock by 0.8% and Perdue by just 0.07% with 95% in.

3:10pm Despite a current Perdue lead of 3% with 91% in, the Needle has Ossoff winning by 1.0% with a 92% win probability.

2:56pm With 90% in, Perdue’s margin drops back to 2.6%, and the Needle has Ossoff winning by 1.0% with an 88% win probability.

2:47pm The Needle goes to at most 95% win probability, and Warnock is at that point. After that, it waits for official calls.

2:42pm While Perdue currently leads Ossoff by 3.0% with 87% reporting, the Needle thinks Ossoff will win by 1.0% and gives him an 81% chance to win. There are many more heavily Dem favouring votes yet to report.

2:17pm Ossoff’s win probability up to 76%, while Warnock is at 90%.

2:07pm The Needle has Ossoff’s win probability up to 73%, while Warnock is at 87%. If Ossoff wins, Republicans will be cursing the Libertarian who got 2.3% in November, denying Perdue an outright win.

1:55pm There’s still lots more votes left in Atlanta, which is why the Needle has projected final margins of Ossoff by 1.0% and Warnock by 1.7%, even though both Republicans are currently ahead in the raw vote count. Ossoff’s win probability up to 70%.

1:44pm Wasserman CALLS the Senate by-election for Warnock (D).

1:40pm With 78% in, it’s Loeffler by 0.6% and Perdue by 1.3%. But the projected margins are Warnock by 1.7% and Ossoff by 1.0%.

1:28pm With 69% counted, both Republicans have taken the lead, Perdue by 1.1% and Loeffler by 0.35%. However, there’s lots more votes left in the Dem-heavy Atlanta area, and the projected margins are Warnock by 1.6% and Ossoff by 0.9%.

1:09pm Just had lunch, and there’s been a big narrowing in the Dem leads. With 63% in, it’s Warnock by 0.6% and Ossoff by just 0.04%. However, the Needle is more confident in both Dems, with Warnock projected to win by 1.4% (68% chance) and Ossoff by 0.7% (60% chance).

12:42pm With 49% in, it’s Warnock by 8 and Ossoff by 7. The Needle has Warnock by 1.2% and Ossoff by 0.7%, with both Dems at around 60% win probability. There’s still a lot of election day vote to come.

12:25pm With 42% reporting, Warnock leads by 11 and Ossoff by 10. The Needle has both races tilting Dem, with Warnock up 1.2% and Ossoff up 0.8%.

12:22pm Wasserman has a good result for both Democrats from Washington county.

12:17pm Wasserman says that many very rural, very Republican counties are below 90% of November turnout. We already know that DeKalb will be over 90% of November levels.

12:11pm With 29% in, it’s Warnock by 4 and Ossoff by 3. Warnock has a 60% chance to win, Ossoff 57%.

11:56am Both Democrats up by 12 with 18% in, and both leading on the Needle by 0.5-1.0%. Both races now classes as Tilting Democrat, from Flip a Coin.

11:52am Dave Wasserman tweets that Republicans trail Trump’s numbers by a point or two in Lanier county with only 86% of November turnout.

11:45am Ossoff now up by more than Warnock (6 vs 3) with 11% in. The Needle has both Dems ahead by under 1%.

11:37am With 9% reporting, it’s Warnock by 14 and Ossoff by 12. The Needle still has both Democrats barely ahead.

11:27am Democratic counties are reporting far earlier than in November. It’s currently Warnock by 30 and Ossoff by 27, but the Needle has both Democrats barely ahead.

11am New York Times results available here, with a Needle for both races.

10:30am Looks like good turnout news for Democrats: DeKalb county (83% Biden) is at 90% of November turnout levels with an hour until polls close.

After the November election, Republicans had a 50-48 lead over Democrats in the Senate. The final two seats, both in Georgia, went to runoffs that will be decided today. If Democrats win both of these contests, they will tie Republicans at 50-50 in the Senate, and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would cast the tie breaking vote.

The FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate has both Democrats moving into slight leads, with Jon Ossoff (D) leading David Perdue (R) by 1.8% and Raphael Warnock (D) leading Kelly Loeffler (R) by 2.1%. Ossoff has gained 0.9% and Warnock 0.3% since Saturday’s article.

Polls in Georgia close at 11am AEDT. In November, the counting was slow in Georgia, with initial results strong for Republicans owing to a rural bias. The suburbs around Atlanta did not start reporting until late on election night.

Concerning tomorrow’s Congressional certification of the Electoral College, all I have to add to Saturday’s article is that at least 12 Republican senators will join Josh Hawley in objecting to the results.

On Sunday, Democrat Nancy Pelosi was re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives, winning 216 votes to 209 for Republican Kevin McCarthy. There were two votes for other candidates. Pelosi needed a majority of all candidate votes. As there were 427 such votes, she needed 214, so exceeded the required majority by two.

Georgia Senate runoffs minus four days

A preview of Wednesday’s (AEDT) Georgia Senate runoffs that could give Democrats Senate control. Also: anti-democratic nuttiness from Trump and Republicans.

After the November election, Republicans had a 50-48 lead over Democrats in the Senate. The final two seats, both in Georgia, went to runoffs that will be decided on Wednesday AEDT. If Democrats win both of these contests, they will tie Republicans at 50-50 in the Senate, and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would cast the tie breaking vote.

One of the Georgia Senate contests was a regular election, while the other was a by-election. In the November regular election, Republican David Perdue won 49.7% to Democrat Jon Ossoff’s 47.9%, with the 2.3% for a Libertarian denying Perdue the 50%+ he needed to win outright.

The November by-election was a “jungle” primary, in which candidates of the same or different parties compete against each other on the same ballot paper. Unless one candidate wins an outright majority, the top two, regardless of party, proceed to a runoff. Democrat Raphael Warnock won 32.9%, with Republican Kelly Loeffler getting the second runoff spot with 25.9%. Republican Doug Collins was third with 20.0%, with most of the remaining votes going to Democrats. Overall vote shares were 49.4% for all Republicans to 48.4% for all Democrats.

After being heavily criticised for understating Trump again, most pollsters are avoiding the Georgia runoffs. The FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate has both Democrats moving into slight leads, with Ossoff leading Perdue by 0.9% and Warnock leading Loeffler by 1.8%.

New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says that early voting has been better for Democrats than in November, partly due to a higher Black share of the electorate than previously. Of course Republicans could have a big election day, but this data is positive for Democrats.

Polls in Georgia close at 11am AEDT Wednesday. In November, the counting was slow in Georgia, with initial results strong for Republicans owing to a rural bias. The suburbs around Atlanta did not start reporting until late on election night.

Trump and Republicans’ anti-democratic nuttiness continues

The day after the Georgia runoffs, there will be a joint session of both chambers of Congress to certify the Electoral College results. In previous elections, this certification has been a formality, but that won’t be the case this time.

On December 14, Joe Biden officially won the Electoral College by 306 votes to 232, the same margin as expected; there were no faithless electors. All of Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud have been soundly rejected by the courts.

Despite this, Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley and Alabama Republican House member Mo Brooks say they will object to results in states Biden won narrowly. According to this Los Angeles Times article, if objections are filed by members of both chambers of Congress, the chambers must adjourn to separately debate and vote on the objections. Votes will be on the public record.

As Democrats hold the House majority and Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell opposes the objections, there is no chance of voiding Biden’s Electoral Votes. But CNN correspondent Jake Tapper says that two Republican House members told him they expect at least 140 House Republicans to object (about two-thirds of the Republican House caucus).

There have also been calls for Vice President Mike Pence, who will retain that office until January 20, to unilaterally refuse to count Electoral Votes from states Biden won narrowly. The Trump-aligned pollster Rasmussen approvingly quoted the Soviet tyrant Joseph Stalin in urging this course. However, Pence is seeking the dismissal of a case that was filed to expand his power.

US 2020 election final results: Biden’s modest Electoral College win

A detailed analysis of where the swings happened and why they occurred in the US election. This report also includes analysis of Congressional races.

Joe Biden won the Electoral College at the November 3, 2020 election by 306 votes to 232 over Donald Trump, an exact reversal of Trump’s triumph in 2016, ignoring faithless electors. Biden gained the Trump 2016 states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia; he also gained Nebraska’s second district.

Trump has tried to get the courts to overturn Biden’s wins in a number of close states, but the courts have given Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud short shrift. The Electoral College will formalise the result when it votes on December 14. Biden will be inaugurated on January 20.

While Biden’s win appears decisive, he won three states – Wisconsin (ten Electoral Votes), Arizona (11) and Georgia (16) – by 0.6% or less. Had Trump won these three states, the Electoral College would have been tied at 269-269. I wrote for The Conversation on November 16 that Trump would have won the presidency in a situation where neither candidate won a majority (270) of the Electoral College.

According to the excellent Cook Political Report tracker, Biden won the national popular vote by 81.28 million votes to 74.22 million for Trump, a 7.06 million vote margin. In percentage terms, Biden won by 51.3% to 46.9%, a 4.5% margin, and a 2.4% margin swing to Democrats from 2016. The map at the top can be used to show 2020 margins, swings from the 2016 election or percentage increases in raw votes cast since 2016. According to Michael McDonald’s US Elections Project, turnout was 66.7% of eligible voters, the highest since at least 1948.

Trump lost the popular vote by 4.5%, but lost the tipping-point state (Wisconsin) by just a 0.6% margin. Thus the tipping-point state was 3.9% more pro-Trump than the US overall; that difference is up from 2.9% in 2012.

Biden’s popular vote margin exceeds Barack Obama’s margin of 3.9% in 2012. But Obama won the tipping-point state that put him over the magic 270 Electoral College votes by 5.4%, while Biden won his tipping-point state by just 0.6%.

This is the seventh time in the last eight presidential elections (the exception being 2004) that the Democrat has won the popular vote. But Democrats also lost the presidency in 2000 and 2016 owing to a split between the popular vote and Electoral College.

Continue reading “US 2020 election final results: Biden’s modest Electoral College win”

US election late counting

What will Biden’s final popular vote margin be, will he win Arizona and Georgia, and what will the final House result be? Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

1:00pm Wednesday Dave Wasserman’s current House count is 221 Democrats, 209 Republicans and five undecided. In four of the undecided races, Republicans lead, but there’s some hope for Democrats in New York’s 22nd. At the 2018 midterms, Democrats won the House by a 235-200 margin.

Biden now leads Trump in the popular vote by 50.9% to 47.2% with up to 1.8 million New York mail votes still to be counted. These will be very pro-Biden.

2:30pm Monday November 16 If anyone’s still following this thread, I’ve published a Conversation article about Biden’s narrow margin in the Electoral College tipping-point state (Wisconsin), and about explanations for why the polls understated Trump again. It’s plausible that coronavirus was a factor, because those who followed medical advice to stay home were more likely to respond to polls and be Democrats.

2:25pm In final Arizona results, Biden defeated Trump by 10,377 votes or 0.30%.

11:48am Sunday I posted yesterday about how Biden only won the “tipping-point” state by 0.6% despite his 306-232 Electoral College win, but it appears that post was lost with the site’s problems.

Democrats lead in the House by 218-203 with 14 seats uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail counting has been very slow. Mail votes will be very strong for Democrats, and they will win the three seats where they currently lead. Dave Wasserman thinks the Dem in New York’s 22nd has a real chance of overcoming the Rep’s lead once all mail is counted.

3:40pm Arizona CALLED for Biden after he won the latest batch of Maricopa county votes. He leads Trump by over 11,400 votes or 0.34%. That call takes Biden to a 290-217 Electoral College lead. The final two states, Georgia and North Carolina, will go to Biden and Trump respectively. Biden will win the Electoral College by 306-232.

3:00pm Friday In the past, late counting in states such as California and Arizona has been better for Democrats than election night results. The early mail has been pro-Republican, but the late mail has been better for Democrats. This election, it’s clear that Democrats were much keener to vote early, and so the normal pattern has been reversed. That’s why Fox News and the AP called Arizona prematurely.

There’s now a big scare for Democrats in New Jersey’s seventh district. The Republican is within 6,300 votes with almost 39,000 remaining. The Rep has been winning late counted votes by big enough margins to put the Dem in jeopardy. Dems will still retain a narrow House majority, but it’s way below expectations.

2:30pm Trump won a batch of 13,000 Maricopa county, Arizona votes by 9%, but there just aren’t enough votes left for him to overcome his current 11,600+ vote deficit in Arizona. Dave Wasserman has called it for Biden.

11:30am Thursday Both the Alaska and North Carolina Senate races were CALLED for Republicans today, taking them to a 50-48 lead with two Georgia runoffs on January 5. Alaska was also called for Trump, with North Carolina to follow soon.

5:00pm Biden currently leads in the national popular vote by over five million votes (50.8% to 47.4%).

4:57pm Democrats are just over the majority mark in the House, and lead Republicans by 218-201 with 16 still uncalled. Dave Wasserman sees it as 222 Democrats, 206 Republicans and seven undecided. Democrats are currently trailing in all seven undecided seats, but may be able to save one or two.

4:47pm In the Alaska Senate contest, the Republican is still up by 58-36 with 75% in. Mail was added today, but it didn’t break heavily Democratic enough. This will soone be called for the Republicans, as will the North Carolina Senate.

4:45pm Biden’s lead in Georgia (14,100 votes) is now greater than his lead in Arizona (12,800), though in percentage terms the Arizona lead is still bigger (0.38% vs 0.28%). I think there are under 50,000 votes left to count in Arizona.

10:45am Wednesday Biden’s lead over 12,600 in Georgia and 14,200 in Arizona.

2:07pm Biden currently leads Trump by 50.7% to 47.5% in the popular vote tracker. Democrats lead by 216-198 in the House with 21 races still uncalled.

1:38PM Trump won today’s batch of over 6k Maricopa county votes by 50-48. Biden maintains a lead just under 15,000 in Arizona. Meanwhile, Biden has extended his Georgia lead beyond 12,000 votes (0.25%).

11:50am Biden’s Arizona lead now under 15,000.

10:25am Tuesday Biden now leads by over 11,400 votes or 0.23% in Georgia and by 15,400 or 0.46% in Arizona. Biden’s lead has stretched to 2.7% in Nevada and to 0.67% in Pennsylvania.

11:06am Biden’s Arizona lead below 17,000 after a batch of about 13,500 votes from the pro-Trump Pinal county. But Pinal is likely almost finished counting.

10:35am Provisionals are padding Biden’s Georgia lead, now over 10,300 or 0.2%. In Pennsylvania, he leads by over 43,000. In Nevada, he leads by 2.4%.

10:30am Monday Biden’s lead in Arizona back over 20,000 votes after he won the latest batch from Maricopa county. This was a small batch of under 7,000 votes that split to Biden by 55-44. Provisionals, which are counted last, are probably much better for Biden than the late mail votes. Biden is very likely to win Arizona now.

Cook Political analyst Dave Wasserman has an excellent graphic for following the national presidential popular vote. As of Sunday afternoon, it had Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 50.7% to 47.6%. That lead is certain to stretch over the coming weeks as there are far more votes left to be counted in Democratic strongholds like California and New York.

A related question is how far the Electoral College “tipping-point” state was from the national popular vote. With Biden’s lead dropping in Arizona even as it expands in Pennsylvania, it appears that Wisconsin will be the state that gave him 270 Electoral Votes. Biden only won Wisconsin by 0.6%, so it is already 2.5 points more favourable to Trump than nationally, and that gap will stretch further.

In Arizona, Biden’s lead is under 19,000 votes or 0.6% with 97% counted. While early mail ballots were pro-Biden, late mail is pro-Trump. Will Biden hold onto his lead? In Georgia, Biden now has a lead of over 9,000 or 0.2% with almost all votes counted. It is very unlikely that a recount will change that race. Trump will almost certainly win the other two uncalled states, North Carolina and Alaska.

Republicans will also almost certainly win the uncalled Senate races in North Carolina and Alaska, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Both Georgia Senate races are going to January 5 runoffs. Democrats would need to win both to tie the Senate at 50-50 and give Kamala Harris the casting vote.

Democrats lead in the House by 215 to 196 with 24 races uncalled. Eight of the uncalled races are in New York, where mail votes have not been counted and are likely to heavily favour Democrats. Republicans have gained a net of five House seats so far.

US election live

Live commentary on today’s US election. Guest post by Adrian Beaumont.

2:35pm I’ve written an article for The Conversation about Biden’s win, and how mail-in votes turned key states around. I will continue to follow late counting action in a new thread to be posted tomorrow.

6:31am Sunday Overnight, Pennsylvania and Nevada were both CALLED for Biden, taking him to 279 Electoral Votes, nine more than the required 270. Joe Biden is the president-elect of the United States!

2:47pm Both Georgia Senate races (one a by-election) have been called as going to runoffs on January 5. Republican David Perdue’s vote fell to 49.8%, below the majority required to avoid a runoff. Republicans are likely to win the two final uncalled races, in Alaska and North Carolina, for a 50-48 Senate lead. Democrats would need to win both runoffs to make it a 50-50 tied Senate, with Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote.

2:38pm Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania up to over 27,000 or 0.4%. His lead in Georgia is almost 4,400 or 0.09%.

1:12pm Biden’s lead in Arizona drops to under 30,000 votes or 0.9% as a Maricopa batch goes to Trump by ten points. But Arizona is now at 97% counted. Meanwhile, Biden’s Pennsylvania lead edges up to over 21,700 (0.3%).

11:50am Biden leads by 4,022 in Georgia (0.08%), by over 19,500 in Pennsylvania (0.3%), by 1.2% in Arizona and by 1.8% in Nevada. A large drop of votes from Arizona’s Maricopa county in under two hours could confirm that result. Biden continues to pull away in Pennsylvania and Nevada as more mail is counted.

9:15am Biden’s Georgia lead now 4,270 (0.08%) with Gwinnett county ballots counted. His Pennsylvania lead is over 14,500.

7:30am Biden’s lead in Georgia has increased to almost 1,600 votes. Almost 8,200 mail votes remain, including 4,800 in Dem-heavy Gwinnett county. Biden will further increase his lead. Today is the deadline for up to 9,000 military and overseas votes to arrive, but most of them probably won’t.

7:23am Trump has reduced Biden’s lead in Arizona to 1.3% with 93% in. But the latest batch was much weaker for Trump than previous batches, and puts him well off the pace needed to overtake.

6:45am Biden has also extended his lead in Nevada to 1.6% with 92% in. He’s going to win at least 279 Electoral Votes.

6:43am Saturday Biden also seizes the lead in Pennsylvania, by under 14,000 votes or 0.2%. With 96% counted, there are many more heavily Dem votes for Biden to further expand his lead. This state should be called for Biden soon, putting him over the line with 273 Electoral Votes.

8:35pm Biden seizes the lead in Georgia by 917 votes or 0.02%. There are very few votes outstanding, so Biden’s lead won’t stretch much further, and it is well within recount margin. Nobody will call for Biden yet.

8:06pm Trump’s lead in Georgia drops to just 463 votes.

5:55pm Trump’s Georgia margin has just fallen back to under 1,300.

5:50pm Not much counting in the last hour or so. Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to about 18,200. Looks like we’ll have to wait til tomorrow morning for Biden to hit the lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia.

4:07pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to about 22,600 or 0.3%.

3:37pm Trump’s leads are now 24,500 in Pennsylvania and 1,800 in Georgia.

2:56pm And Pennsylvania keeps going Biden’s way, as Trump’s lead drops to 26,000 or 0.4%.

2:47pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania now under 37,000 or 0.5%.

2:27pm Georgia still has over 16,000 votes to count, so Biden is very likely to take the lead.

1:49pm Trump’s leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia now at 42,000 and under 2,000 respectively. Biden is likely to take the lead soon in both states.

1:33pm Back to the US, and Biden’s margin in Arizona keeps tightening, now down to 1.6% with 90% in. The Trump margin in Georgia is down to under 2,500 votes. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is now under 50,000 (0.7%), with plenty of mail still to come.

1:10pm A diversion to New Zealand, where final results of the election three weeks ago gave Labour 65 of the 120 seats, National 33, the Greens and ACT ten each and the Maori party two. Labour won 50.0% of the vote, National 25.6%, the Greens 7.9%, ACT 7.6% and Maori 1.2%. Labour and Maori each gained one seat at National’s expense from the election night results, with Labour’s vote increasing 0.9%.

12:05pm Mail ballots have been going to Biden even in big Trump counties. Nate Silver says that Trump discouraged his supporters from voting by mail, so even in Trump counties, the few Biden voters dominated mail. But there’s a LOT more mail in Biden counties.

11:17am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to 1.0% with 94% in. But Biden’s lead in Arizona drops to 2.1% as late mail votes there favour Trump.

11:12am Trump now ahead in Georgia by just 3,600 votes or 0.1%. Clayton county in Atlanta appears to be the last county with votes outstanding. That’s at 95% in, and Biden’s winning by 85-14. Final votes there could well put Biden ahead.

9:33am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania down to 1.4% with 93% in.

9:30am Trump’s lead in Georgia now just under 10,000 votes or 0.2%. It appears there are enough votes left for Biden to take the lead. Both Georgia Senate seats are headed for January 5 runoffs as Republican David Perdue’s vote share falls just under 50%.

9:27am 90% of the Nevada ballots remaining are in Democratic favouring Clark county, much of them mail. Biden is very likely to further expand his Nevada lead.

7:12am Biden is winning almost 80% with Pennsylvania mail ballots

7:02am Trump’s lead in Georgia is down to just 0.3% with 98% in.

7:00am In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead is down to 1.7% with 92% in. The remaining vote is Dem-heavy mail. Biden is likely to lead comfortably once all votes are counted.

6:53am Friday Biden slightly extended his lead in Nevada on this morning’s counting, to 0.9% with 89% reporting. Nevada’s analyst Jon Ralston is virtually calling for Biden based on where the remaining votes are, and how Democrats have performed.

4:43pm A Pennsylvania win would get Biden 273 Electoral Votes, three above the magic 270. Biden is also currently ahead in Nevada (more votes to be counted tomorrow) and Arizona (late mail favouring Trump there). He is a good chance to win Georgia once all votes are counted. If Biden wins these states, he wins the Electoral College by 306-232, an exact reversal of the 2016 result.

4:35pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is just 2.6% with 89% in. Twitter analysts say Biden is outperforming Clinton’s 2016 margins in the more populous counties and should comfortably win Pennsylvania once all votes are counted. That should occur by Saturday AEDT.

1:30pm Biden’s lead in Arizona narrows to under three points with 86% in. While early mail there was very good for Biden, late mail is good for Trump.

12:45pm Trump’s lead in Georgia down to just 0.8% with 95% reporting. Late votes are very pro-Biden there.

12:27pm Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania now down to three points with 88% in.

11:05am Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania has fallen to four points with 86% in. Nate Cohn says Biden is likely to win by about two points when all votes are tallied.

9:08am Michigan CALLED for Biden, taking him to 253 Electoral Votes. He’s likely to win Pennsylvania when all mail is counted, and win the election with at least 273 EVs.

6:28am The NYT has just CALLED Wisconsin for Biden; that’s his first state gain from 2016. Trump won Maine’s 2nd district, so it’s now 237 Biden, 214 Trump. Michigan is very likely to give Biden 253 Electoral Votes.

6:25am In the House, Dems lead by 199-185 with 51 races uncalled. Reps have made a net five seat gain, so the Dem majority will be reduced to about 230 seats out of 435.

6:22am Republicans lead in the Senate by 48-47 with five races uncalled. Reps won Maine and Dems Arizona. Two Georgia races are probably headed to runoffs. Dems are likely to win Michigan and Reps North Carolina.

6:15am Thursday With more than 98% counted in Wisconsin, Biden has a 49.4-48.8 lead, and will almost certainly win. He has a 49.6-48.7 lead in Michigan with 94% counted, and should win. Trump still leads by 8 in Pennsylvania with 80% in, but the remaining votes are very pro-Biden. Winning Wisconsin and Michigan would get Biden to 253 Electoral Votes

11:08pm And that’s going to be my last update for today.

11:06pm Nate Cohn says there are more than enough mail ballots outstanding in Pennsylvania for Biden to easily overhaul Trump.

10:30pm That last rural Nevada county is in. Trump only got a 1500 vote margin despite winning almost 80% of the vote there – low population. Biden’s statewide Nevada lead is down to 0.6% or 7,600 votes.

9:32pm The Biden Nevada lead is now just 0.8%, or 9,300 votes. One rural county is yet to report; that county gave Trump a 1400 vote margin in 2016.

9:25pm Biden’s lead in Nevada is down to 1% with 85% in. However, I believe they’ve virtually finished with in-person election day votes, and the rest should be mail that will likely boost Biden.

9:05pm Mail in Michigan should be counted by tomorrow, while Pennsylvania will take until Saturday AEDT.

9:00pm I had a break from this. Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin by 49.3-49.0 with 89% in. It’s likely that remaining mail ballots there will be good for him.

7:20pm The NYT calls Maine for Biden. He leads by 227-213.

7:15pm I’ve just published an article for The Conversation about these results. Democrats only appear likely to gain a net one Senate seat, so Republicans would still have a 52-48 majority. That would be a very disappointing outcome for Democrats.

7:08pm The AP has confirmed Fox News’ call for Biden in Arizona.

5:50pm Biden leads by 5 in Nevada with 74% in, probably enough. He leads by 6 in Arizona with 80% in.

5:15pm The NYT calls Minnesota for Biden; that takes him to 223 Electoral Votes.

4:17pm And the NYT Needle now gives Biden a 0.4% lead in Georgia with 79% in.

4:15pm Biden leads in Nebraska’s second district by ten points with 85% in. If he wins that plus Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan, he has 270 Electoral Votes.

4:05pm Georgia is looking better for Biden. The NYT Needle has it at just Trump +1 with 78% counted. North Carolina isn’t over yet as mail ballots can arrive after election day. The needle is at Trump +1.2.

3:50pm The Iowa Selzer poll that had Trump winning by seven is likely to be on target again. He leads there by 4.5% with plenty of election day votes to come.

3:37pm Fox News has CALLED Arizona for Biden and the Dem Senate candidate.

3:15pm The Senate so far has the Reps gaining Alabama, while the Dems gain Colorado. The Reps have held SC and are likely to hold NC. One Georgia race is headed for a runoff, and the other could go that way too.

3:10pm And the NYT has called NH for Biden, which gets him 209 EVs.

3:05pm California, Washington and Oregon are called for Biden. That gives him a 205-112 lead in called races. But Trump is going to win Florida, Texas, Ohio and very probably North Carolina and Georgia.

2:35pm Two US networks have CALLED New Hampshire for Biden. He was expected to win there, but that’s his first real good news of the night.

2:17pm Trump now leading in Ohio by four points with 72% in. And in NC, he’s taken the lead by 0.4% with 88% in.

2:10pm Biden has an 11-point lead in Arizona’s early vote, which is an estimated 69% of all Arizona votes.

2:00 pm It’s looking bleak for Biden in the south and southwest as election day votes erode his early vote leads. It’s the same in Ohio. So Biden is probably going to need Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Those states count mail later.

1:42pm Biden leads by two in Ohio with 62% in, but the election day vote is likely to win it for Trump.

1:34pm Trump has just taken the lead by 0.1% in Texas with 73% in. Biden has been weak with Hispanics, like in Florida.

1:30pm Trump keeps gaining in NC as the election day vote is counted. He’s now less than two points behind, and the NYT needle is giving him a 92% chance to win.

1:20pm The NYT Needle has Trump winning NC by 1.4% with 72% reporting, and Georgia by 4%. Nate Cohn says completed towns in New Hampshire are showing a 6% margin shift to Biden.

12:40pm The NYT needle has Trump winning Georgia by 4 points and North Carolina by 0.9. Biden currently leads in NC by 7 points with 66% in, but most of that is early vote. And no surprise that Arkansas was called quickly for Trump.

12:15pm Biden leads in Texas by 13.5 points with 26% in. Remember this would be early votes.

12:12pm Democrats would dearly love to knock off current Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. But Kentucky is too right wing; McConnell currently leads by 25 points.

12:09pm Biden leads in Ohio by 18 points with 31% in. However, that’s mostly early vote from the big population centres, and Trump will improve.

12:05pm Massachusetts, Connecticut Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland and Illinois called for Biden, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi for Trump. Biden has an 85 to 55 Electoral College lead over Trump. These states were all easy calls.

12 noon South Carolina called for Trump

11:43am Virginia has been called for Biden, West Virginia for Trump. The NYT Needle gives Trump a 94% chance to win Florida – game over there.

11:30am The NYT needle has Trump winning Florida by 3.5 points, owing to a dreadfully weak performance by Dems in Miami-Dade county. At least the problems with Cuban Americans are unlikely to affect other states.

11:20am Biden leads in Florida by 51-48 with an estimated 31% in. Don’t think that’s good enough given election day votes and the Panhandle.

11:10am The New York Times has called Kentucky for Trump and Vermont for Biden.

10:47am Owing to a massive early vote margin in Lexington, Biden has a current two-point lead in Kentucky. It’s not likely to last, though.

10:05am The partisan split in Broward keeps widening in Democrats’ favour.

9:22am Republicans voted heavily in the morning, but their gains have slowed down dramatically. This tweet thread from Nate Silver shows how the Dem-Rep-Oth composition of Broward county, Florida has changed during the day. Broward is a very strong Democratic county, but it’s the trend that counts. This does not include votes cast before election day.

The final FiveThirtyEight national poll aggregate gives Joe Biden an 8.4% lead over Donald Trump (51.8% to 43.4%). In the key states, Biden leads by 8.4% in Wisconsin, 7.9% in Michigan, 4.7% in Pennsylvania, 2.6% in Arizona and 2.5% in Florida.

The worry for Biden is that Pennsylvania, the “tipping-point” state, is almost four points more favourable for Trump than the national aggregate. As a result, the final FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 10% chance to win the Electoral College, but a mere 3% chance to win the popular vote.

For the Senate, the FiveThirtyEight Classic forecast gives Democrats a 78% win probability, with the most likely outcome a 52-48 Democratic Senate. Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between 48 and 56 seats after the election.

Poll closing times

All times given here are today Australian Eastern Daylight Time. Polls have suggested the early vote will be strongly pro-Biden, but the election day vote will be strongly pro-Trump. Early leads in a given state are likely to depend on whether that state counts election day or early votes first. Poll closing times are from The Green Papers.

Some states span two time zones, with voting finishing an hour later in the trailing zone. US media will not call states until all polls in that state are closed. The most important early state is Florida: if Biden wins, he’s almost assured of victory, but a Trump win means we could be waiting for mail votes from Pennsylvania and Michigan, possibly for days.

10am. The first polls close in the eastern time zones of Indiana and Kentucky, both expected to be easy Trump wins.

11am. Polls close in Georgia and most of Florida. In Florida, early votes will be released soon after polls close and election day votes are counted relatively quickly. Here’s the catch: polls in most of Florida close at 11am, but there’s a very right-wing part called the Panhandle. The Panhandle is in a different time zone, and closes one hour after the rest of Florida. In 2016 and 2018, the Panhandle caused agony for hopeful Democrats.

11:30am. Polls close in North Carolina and Ohia. I believe early votes will be counted first in both states.

12 noon. Polls close in Pennsylvania and most of Michigan and Texas (small parts of Michigan and Texas close at 1pm). I believe election day votes will be counted first in Pensylvania and Michigan, while early votes are counted first in Texas.

1pm. Polls close in Wisconsin and Arizona. In Arizona, a large share of the overall vote will be mail, and that should be out for most of Arizona within an hour of polls closing. Mail received after election day can be accepted.

2pm. Polls close in Iowa, where I believe early votes will be counted quickly.

3pm. Polls close in California, Oregon and Washington. These are all Democratic strongholds that should be called immediately for Biden. If he’s already gained enough Trump 2016 states, this could be when he is declared president-elect.

5pm. The final polls close in Alaska’s western time zone.

US election minus two days

Biden is the clear favourite to win the US election, but there’s still a plausible chance for Trump, mainly due to a five-point Biden lead in Pennsylvania.

This is a slightly modified version of an article I had published for The Conversation earlier Monday.

Two days before Wednesday’s US election (AEDT), the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate gives Joe Biden an 8.6% lead over Donald Trump (52.0% to 43.4%). Biden’s lead has decreased by 0.3% since last Thursday. In the key states, Biden leads by 8.3% in Wisconsin, 8.2% in Michigan, 4.8% in Pennsylvania, 3.1% in Arizona and 2.2% in Florida.

Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania is almost four points below his national lead, and that gives Trump hope of pulling off an Electoral College/popular vote split, as occurred at the 2016 election. Pennsylvania is the most likely “tipping-point” state that could put either Trump or Biden over the magic 270 Electoral Votes.

If Biden loses Pennsylvania, but wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona, he would have 269 Electoral Votes, one short of 270. Either Maine’s or Nebraska’s second Congressional District could in that scenario give Biden the narrowest of Electoral College wins. These states award one Electoral Vote to the winner of each of their districts, and two to the statewide winner. All other states are winner-takes-all.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the tipping-point state (Wisconsin) by 0.8%, while winning the popular vote by 2.1% – a difference between the tipping-point and popular vote of 2.9%.

Analyst Nate Silver says while Trump can plausibly win, he would need the polls to be wrong by far more than in 2016. At this stage in 2016, the FiveThirtyEight forecast gave Trump a 35% chance; he currently has just a 10% chance. Trump only has a 3% chance to win the popular vote.

Trump had one very good poll result from a high-quality pollster: a Selzer Iowa poll gave him a seven-point lead in that state. But most high-quality polls have been far better for Biden: Siena polls for The New York Times gave Biden six-point leads in Arizona and Pennsylvania, a three-point lead in Florida and an 11-point lead in Wisconsin.

In FiveThirtyEight aggregates, Biden leads by 2.0% in North Carolina and 1.5% in Georgia. He trails by 0.3% in Ohio, 1.2% in Texas and 1.7% in Iowa. If Biden won all these states, he would win over 400 Electoral Votes. Florida is now in this group of states when it had previously been better for Biden.

Trump’s net job approval ratings have jumped two points since last Thursday. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his net approval with all polls is -8.5%, and -7.0% with polls of likely or registered voters. The RealClearPolitics average has Biden’s net favourability at +7, while Trump’s is -13.

I wrote on October 22 that there are two key measures where Biden is doing far better than Clinton. First, Biden is over 50% in national polls, which Clinton never achieved. Second, he has a net positive favourability rating, whereas both Clinton and Trump were very unpopular in 2016.

The US election results will come through on Wednesday from 10am AEDT. You can read my wrap of when polls close in the key states and results are expected. A key early results state is Florida; most polls close at 11am AEDT, but the very right-wing Panhandle closes an hour later.

In the FiveThirtyEight Classic Senate forecast, Democrats now have a 79% chance to win control. The most likely outcome is a 52-48 Democratic majority. The 80% confidence range is 48 to 56 Democratic seats. All these measures are unchanged since Thursday.