Adrian Beaumont - The Poll Bludger

Canadian election called for April 28

Mark Carney calls the Canadian federal election just before parliament was due to resume, with the Liberals narrowly ahead of the Conservatives in the polls.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

On March 9, Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, was elected Liberal leader with 86% of points and 87% of the popular vote. On March 14, Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as Canadian PM. On Sunday (Canadian time), Carney called the Canadian federal election for April 28, about six months early.

Parliament had been due to resume on Monday after it was prorogued for the Liberal leadership election. The governing centre-left Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats at the September 2021 election, ten short of a majority, and have been reduced to 152 through by-election losses and defections. Carney is not an MP, so he could not address parliament (he will contest Nepean at the election). Perhaps owing to these difficulties, Carney called the election early.

There will be 343 seats elected by first past the post at this election, up from 338 in 2021, so 172 seats will be needed for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Sunday, and it gives the Liberals 37.5%, the Conservatives 37.1%, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 11.6%, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.4% (28.4% in Quebec), the Greens 3.8% and the far-right People’s 2.2%. Seat predictions are 174 Liberals, just over a majority, 134 Conservatives, 26 BQ, seven NDP and two Greens.

In early January, just before Trudeau announced he would resign once a new Liberal leader had been elected, vote shares in the Tracker were 44% Conservative, 20% Liberal and 19% NDP. At this point, the Conservatives looked headed for a massive landslide with well over 200 seats, while the Liberals could have fallen into third behind the BQ.

Donald Trump is probably most responsible for the Liberal revival, with his tariffs and his talk of making Canada the 51^st US state pushing Canadians back to supporting the Liberals. Trump is expected to impose more tariffs on April 2, possibly assisting the Liberals further. I believe Trump’s tariffs and associated stock market falls have also helped Labor in Australia.

However, I don’t believe in momentum in elections: just because one party is gaining ground in the polls doesn’t mean that party will continue to gain ground. The massive surge for the Liberals could reverse during the election campaign, perhaps as voters refocus on stuff they don’t like about the Liberals after nearly ten years of Liberal government since Trudeau was first elected in October 2015.

US and Portugal

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump has a net approval of -2.1 (49.6% disapprove, 47.5% approve). His net approval turned negative on March 11. Trump has fallen from +12 net approval at the start of his term.

A Portuguese parliamentary election will be held on May 18, only 14 months after the March 2024 election. The early election came after the conservative AD, which governed in minority with support from the far-right Chega, lost a confidence vote. Polls indicate another AD-led minority government is likely. Portugal uses proportional representation by region to elect its 230 MPs.

Canadian federal Liberal leadership election live

Mark Carney very likely to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and Prime Minister, as the Liberals surge back in Canadian federal polls.

12:07pm Tuesday Wikipedia shows the popular votes as well as the points system used (100 points for each of the 343 electorates, for a total of 34,300). Carney won 86.8% of the membership vote out of nearly 152,000 total votes and 85.9% of the points.

9:37am Carney has been elected Liberal leader and will replace Trudeau as PM, after winning a first round majority. Carney won 85.9% of the vote, a bigger share than Trudeau in 2013 (a bit over 80%).

9:04am Monday The CBC has a live blog on the Liberal convention happening now that will announce the winner.

I covered today’s Canadian federal Liberal leadership election in late January and mid-February. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s 343 electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. With a total of 34,300 points, 17,151 are needed for a majority. This system skews towards electorates with relatively few registered Liberal voters.

Voting commenced on February 26 and ends at 6am AEDT Monday, with results to be announced in Ottawa. The winner will replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM. Parliament, where the Liberals don’t hold a majority, will resume on March 23 after it was prorogued for the leadership election. The next Canadian federal election is due by October, but it could be held earlier.

Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, had 68% among Liberal supporters in a February Léger poll, but a Mainstreet poll gave him only a 43-31 lead over former deputy PM Chrystia Freeland. Carney also has a big lead in endorsements.

All Canadian general elections use first past the post. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Wednesday. The Conservatives lead the centre-left Liberals by 40.3-30.8, with 14.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 6.8% for the left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc (BQ) (29.1% in Quebec), 4.2% for the Greens and 2.5% for the far-right People’s. Seet estimates are 171 of 343 Conservatives, one short of a majority, 125 Liberals, 31 BQ, 14 NDP and two Greens.

Éric Grenier’s commentary said that polls taken in the last week are not showing the Liberal surge that was seen previously, with a Léger poll giving the Conservatives a 13-point lead, up from three points. However, polls used by the Tracker don’t include Carney in the readout; if they did it would be closer. An EKOS poll that is not yet included in the Tracker gave the Liberals a five-point lead, up from one in the previous EKOS poll.

Conservatives easily win third successive term in Ontario

Ontario is Canadia’s most populous province. At the February 27 election that was held about 15 months early, the Conservatives won 80 of the 124 seats (down three since the 2022 election), the NDP 27 seats (down four), the Liberals 14 (up six) and the Greens two (steady). Conservative Doug Ford became the first premier to win three successive majorities since 1959.

Vote shares were 43.0% Conservatives (up 2.1%), 30.0% Liberals (up 6.1%), 18.6% NDP (down 5.2%) and 4.8% Greens (down 1.1%). Despite the third place in popular votes over 11% behind the Liberals, the NDP won 13 more seats than the Liberals.

US, Austria and Germany

Sadly, FiveThirtyEight has been shut down by US ABC news. However, Nate Silver now has an aggregate of Donald Trump’s approval in US national polls. Trump is at net +0.8 (48.1% approve, 47.3% disapprove). At this stage of his presidency, Trump’s net approval is worse than for any other president going back to Truman, except Trump’s first term.

Special elections (by-elections in Australia) will occur on April 1 in two federal House Republican-held Florida seats. At the 2024 election, Republicans won both these seats by 32-33 points. Republicans hold the House by 218-215, so winning both these special elections will return them to the 220-215 result in 2024.

Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold. At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 of the 183 seats (up 26 since 2019), the conservative ÖVP 51 (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten). A coalition government of ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS was formed on March 2, five months after the election.

A week after the February 23 German federal election, where the centre-left SPD finished third behind the far-right AfD and conservative CDU/CSU, a state election was held in Hamburg using PR with a 5% threshold. The SPD won 45 of the 121 seats (down nine since 2020), the CDU 26 (up 11), the Greens 25 (down eight), the Left 15 (up two) and the AfD ten (up three). Despite the losses, the SPD and Greens easily won enough seats for a combined majority.

German election live

Live coverage from Monday morning of today’s German election, where polls remain bleak for the overall left, but the Left party surges above 5%.

Results wrap

While it was expected from pre-election polls, this was a dismal performance for the major left-wing party, the SPD, to lag in third place behind both the AfD and CDU/CSU. The combined vote share for the three coalition parties (SPD, Greens and FDP) was just 32.3% (down 19.5% on these parties’ combined vote in 2021).

Conservative to far-right parties (the CDU/CSU and AfD) won a combined 49.3% (up 14.8%). If the Left party is grouped with SPD and Greens to form an overall left, they won a combined 36.8% (down 8.5%).

With BSW missing out on parliamentary representation by a hair and FDP by a bit more, 13.9% of votes were cast for parties that didn’t qualify. That meant qualifying parties were boosted in percentage of parliamentary seats won relative to their vote shares. In parliament, the CDU/CSU and AfD won a combined 57% of seats to 43% for the SPD, Greens and Left. The likely governing coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD will have 52% of seats.

Live Commentary

11:55am Those final two seats are in, and BSW has missed out, provisionally winning 4.97%, just short of the 5% threshold. This will give CDU/CSU and SPD a combined 328 of the 630 seats, over the 316 needed for a majority.

11:34am After 297 of 299, BSW has dropped to 4.98%. They will need something from the final two electorates to make it.

11:19am After 290 of 299, the BSW drops back to 4.99%, fractionally below the 5% threshold. So now CDU/CSU and SPD would have a majority.

11:11am After 284 of 299, the BSW has 5.01%!

10:57am After 274 of 299, the BSW is on 5.03%. If that holds, they will win 35 seats, and CDU/CSU plus SPD would only have a combined 309 of the 630 seats, seven short of a majority. In this case, the Greens would also be needed to provide a majority.

10:16am After 234 of 299 electorates, 28.8% CDU/CSU (up 4.3%), 20.7% AfD (up 10.3%), 16.5% SPD (down 9.4%), 11.4% Greens (down 3.0%), 8.7% Left (up 3.9%), 4.9% BSW (new) and 4.3% FDP (down 6.9%). Decision Desk HQ now projects the CDU/CSU will win 211 of the 630 seats, the AfD 151, the SPD 120, the Greens 83, the Left 64 and BSW and the FDP won’t enter parliament. If this is the result, the CDU/CSU plus AfD or CDU/CSU plus SPD will have enough seats for a majority (316 seats).

9:14am After 175 of 299 electorates, the BSW is on 5.01%, just over the 5% threshold, while the FDP remains at 4.1%. So the FDP is likely to lose parliamentary representation while it’s a nailbiter for BSW.

8:51am After 137 of 299 electorates, 29.7% CDU/CSU (up 4.4%), 21.5% AfD (up 10.6%), 15.6% SPD (down 9.3%), 10.9% Greens (down 2.7%), 8.2% Left (up 3.8%), 4.9% BSW (new) and 4.1% FDP (down 6.7%).

7:23am After six of 299 electorates declared, the CDU/CSU has 35.4% (up 4.8% on these seats in 2021), the AfD 25.7% (up 13.0%), the SPD 11.7% (down 9.0%), the Greens 6.6% (down 1.7%), the Left 5.1% (up 2.0%), the BSW 3.9% and the FDP 3.3% (down 6.1%).

6:38am Monday The Guardian’s live blog has exit poll results. The CDU/CSU has 28.6%, the AfD 20.4%, the SPD 16.3%, the Greens 12.3%, the Left 8.5%, the BSW 4.9% and the FDP 4.7%. We will need to wait for results to find out whether BSW and/or the FDP clear the 5% threshold to win seats. The exit polls are close to the pre-election polls.

I covered today’s German federal election in late December, late January and eight days ago. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three of the 299 single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post. After there were 735 total MPs in 2021 owing to “overhang” and “leveling” seats, reforms will reduce parliament’s size to 630 MPs.

Polls close at 4am AEDT Monday. Exit polls will be released once polls close. The first official results will take at least a few hours because all votes in an electorate need to be counted before any results for that electorate are officially declared. The final make-up of parliament will probably not be determined until Monday afternoon AEDT.

Opinion polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 29%, the far-right AfD 21%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 7%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4.5%. The CSU only contests elections in Bavaria, while the CDU contests in all other German states. Like Australia’s Liberal and National parties, the CDU and CSU are usually added together in polls.

The German election website Zweitstimme.org has probabilities for each party entering parliament that factor in both the 5% threshold and winning three electorates. The Left has a 97% chance to enter parliament, BSW 24% and the FDP 14%. If the parties near 5% don’t make it into parliament, seats they would have won are reassigned to parties that clear the threshold. So whether a combination of parties will be enough for a majority (316 seats) may depend on how many parties make it into parliament.

According to Zweitstimme, there’s a 100% chance of the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens winning a combined majority, a 91% majority chance for CDU/CSU and AfD, a 61% chance for CDU/CSU and SPD and a 34% chance for CDU/CSU and Greens. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD.

This election will be seven months early owing to a breakdown in the governing coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP. Polls have been bleak for left-wing parties generally since July 2023, when the AfD surged ahead of the SPD into second place behind the CDU/CSU. The Left party had looked doomed to lose parliamentary representation after BSW split from it in early 2024, but they have surged above the 5% threshold in recent weeks, while BSW has slid below.

US: Trump’s ratings and 2024 polls’ performance

The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of US national polls gives Donald Trump a +1.5 net approval rating, down from +3.4 eight days ago. Currently, 48.5% approve and 47.0% disapprove of Trump’s performance.

Nate Silver has a detailed review of the 2024 election polls. The polls did better than in most previous presidential elections in terms of error between the polls’ estimates and the election results, but for the third presidential election in a row they understated Trump’s support. After an excellent performance in 2024, AtlasIntel is now Silver’s top-rated pollster, while Selzer went down after blowing its final Iowa poll.

German election minus eight days

Polls remain bleak for the left shortly before the February 23 election. Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership contest, federal election polls and provincial elections.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December and late January. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

Polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 30%, the far-right AfD 20%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 6%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4%. In the last few weeks, there has been some movement to the Left and against BSW, so the Left is likely to clear the 5% threshold, while BSW may fall short.

The SPD, Greens and FDP had formed a coalition government after the September 2021 election, but this coalition broke down in early November, leading to this election being held seven months early. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD, but they may need both the SPD and Greens to form a government without the AfD.

Canadian Liberal leadership and federal polls

A new leader of the governing centre-left Liberals to replace Justin Trudeau will be elected on March 9. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. The overwhelming favourite to be next Liberal leader and PM is former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Carney has surged from 27% among Liberal supporters in the first Léger poll on January 13 to 57% on January 25 and 68% on February 10.

All Canadian general elections use FPTP. The federal election is due by October, though it could be held earlier if the Liberals are defeated after parliament resumes on March 23. The CBC Poll Tracker was last updated Monday, and it has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 42.4-25.5 with 16.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 8.1% for the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) (33.3% in Quebec), 4.1% for the Greens and 2.8% for the far-right People’s.

On these vote shares, the Conservatives are expected to win 205 of the 343 seats, the Liberals 79, the BQ 39 and NDP 18, with the Conservatives well above the 172 needed for a majority. In the last month, the Liberals’ vote share has increased from a low of 20.1% and the Conservatives have dropped from a high of 44.8%.

Conservative landslide likely at Ontario election

Ontario is Canada’s most populous province. Conservative Premier Doug Ford called an election for February 27, about 15 months early. The Writ’s current Ontario forecast is for the Conservatives to win 97 of the 124 seats on 44.6% of votes, the Liberals 14 seats on 28.3%, the NDP ten seats on 17.9% and the Greens two seats on 6.2%. This would be the Conservatives’ third successive term.

At the November 26 Nova Scotia election, the incumbent Conservatives were easily re-elected with 43 of the 55 seats (up 12 since 2021). The NDP won nine seats (up three) and the Liberals two (down 15). Vote shares were 52.5% Conservatives (up 14.1%), 22.2% NDP (up 1.2%) and 22.7% Liberals (down 14.0%).

US, UK and Ireland

In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Donald Trump’s net approval in US national polls is currently +3.4, with 49.0% approving and 45.7% disapproving. His net approval has dropped from a peak of +8.2 at the start of his term.

The far-right Reform has surged into a tie for the lead with Labour in UK national polls with the Conservatives further behind. The Find Out Now poll, which has a pro-Reform lean, has Reform six points ahead of Labour in its latest poll. Keir Starmer’s net favourability is -33 or worse in most recent polls.

At the November 29 Irish election, the two main conservative parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) won a combined 86 of the 174 seats, two short of a majority. On January 15, a coalition government was agreed between these two parties and nine of the 16 independents. Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin was elected Taoiseach (PM) after winning a parliamentary vote on January 23.

German election minus four weeks

Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership election after Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Polls in both Germany and Canada are bleak for the left.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

At the previous German election in September 2021, the centre-left SPD won 25.7% of the vote, the conservative CDU/CSU 24.1%, the Greens 14.7%, the pro-business FDP 11.4%, the far-right AfD 10.4% and the Left 4.9% (keeping a proportional entitlement by winning three single-member electorates). After 16 years of CDU/CSU-led coalition governments, the SPD, Greens and FDP formed a coalition government.

In November, this government broke down and this election will occur seven months early. Current polls give the CDU/CSU about 30%, the AfD 20%, the SPD 17%, the Greens 14%, the new economically left but socially conservative BSW 5%, the FDP 4% and the Left 4%. The CDU/CSU will likely need support from the SPD to avoid governing with the AfD.

Conservatives have large lead in Canadian polls

On January 6, Justin Trudeau announced he would resign as Canadian Liberal leader and PM once a new Liberal leader had been elected. As the Liberals don’t have a majority in parliament, it has been prorogued until March 24 to allow the Liberal leadership to be resolved.

The leadership election will occur on March 9 among registered Liberals using preferential voting. Each of Canada’s seats gets 100 points that are allocated proportionally according to votes in that seat. A majority of all points is needed to win. This system will skew results in favour of seats where there are relatively few Liberals.

In the lead-up to Trudeau’s resignation announcement, the Conservatives had gained three seats from the Liberals at by-elections on big swings, and Chrystia Freeland, deputy PM and minister for finance, had resigned. The leadership election is likely to be a contest between Freeland and Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England.

The Canadian federal election is due by October, but it will be held early if the Liberals are defeated when parliament resumes on March 24. There are 343 seats elected by FPTP, so it takes 172 for a majority. At the September 2021 election, the centre-left Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6% of the national vote, the Conservatives 119 on 33.7%, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 32 on 7.6% (32.1% in Quebec), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 25 on 17.8% and the far-right People’s zero on 4.9%.

The CBC Poll Tracker has the Conservatives at 44.8%, the Liberals at 21.9%, the NDP at 17.6%, the BQ at 8.2% (35.3% in Quebec), the Greens at 3.8% and the People’s at 2.6%. The Conservatives are estimated as winning 225 seats to 53 Liberals, 41 BQ and 22 NDP. However, this tracker was last updated on Monday, and an EKOS poll that was completed Thursday had the Conservatives just 3.8 points ahead of the Liberals, though EKOS has had better results for the Liberals than other pollsters.

Trudeau promised to reform Canada’s electoral system before he won the October 2015 election, but did nothing. FPTP assists the Conservatives in Canada, who are the only significant right-wing party.

US and Croatia

On Monday, Donald Trump began his four-year term as US president, replacing Joe Biden after the November election. Biden’s final ratings as president in the FiveThirtyEight tracker was a net approval of -20.0 (57.0% disapprove, 37.0% approve). FiveThirtyEight has presidential approval charts since Harry Truman (president from 1945-53). Biden’s final ratings are worse than for any other president who served four years or more at this stage of their presidency except Jimmy Carter.

FiveThirtyEight doesn’t yet have an aggregate for Trump’s approval, but most early Trump polls have him at net positive double digits. Trump’s favourable ratings have improved since the election, and he’s now at net -1.6 in FiveThirtyEight (48.2% unfavourable, 46.5% favourable).

The centre-left incumbent easily won the January 12 Croatian presidential runoff election, defeating his conservative opponent by a 74.7-25.3 margin. However, the conservatives won the April 2024 Croatian parliamentary election.

German election minus two months

Left-wing parties face a dismal result at the February 23 German elections. Also covered: South Korean and French continuing crises, and a wrap of recent elections.

In early November, the German federal governing coalition of centre-left SPD, Greens and pro-business FDP collapsed owing to a split with the FDP. In mid-December, the government was defeated in a no-confidence vote, with new elections to be held on February 23, about seven months before they were due.

Germany uses the Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) system. Voters cast two votes: one for their local MP elected by first past the post, and one for their party. The party vote determines the number of seats each party is entitled to. After the 2021 election, there were 736 MPs owing to “overhangs”. Electoral reforms will limit the next parliament to 630 MPs.

To qualify for a proportional allocation of seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national vote or three single-member electorates.

Polling has been dismal for the coalition parties since mid-2023, when the far-right AfD moved into second place ahead of the SPD. Current polls have the conservative CDU/CSU at about 30%, the AfD at 19%, the SPD at 16%, the Greens at 13% and the economically left but socially conservative BSW at 6%. The FDP is likely to miss the 5% threshold.

While the CDU/CSU and AfD are likely to easily win a combined majority of seats, the CDU/CSU has said it won’t govern in coalition with the AfD. But forming a government without the AfD is likely to require support from either the SPD or the Greens.

South Korean and French updates

On December 14, the South Korean parliament impeached conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol over his December 3 declaration of martial law by a 204-85 vote, just above the 200 needed for a two-thirds majority of the 300 MPs. The opposition centre-left Democrats and allies have a 192-108 majority, so 12 MPs from Yoon’s People Power Party voted for impeachment. This vote came a week after the first impeachment vote failed owing to a PPP boycott.

After the impeachment vote, Yoon was suspended and replaced as acting president by the PM, a Yoon appointee. The Constitutional Court has until June to decide. It normally has nine judges, but currently only six owing to recent retirements. If the Court upholds the impeachment, Yoon will be removed and new elections required within 60 days. On Friday the PM was impeached over failure to appoint additional judges and replaced by the finance minister as acting president.

On December 13, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed centrist François Bayrou PM after the fall of conservative Michel Barnier’s government nine days earlier. This appointment is unlikely to fix Macron’s parliamentary problems that I covered previously, which are the result of an election he called three years early. Macron can’t call a new parliamentary election until July 2025.

Iceland, Romania, Botswana and Uruguay

The 63 Icelandic MPs are elected by PR with a 5% threshold. At the November 30 election, the centre-left Social Democrats won 15 seats (up nine since 2021), ahead of the conservative Independence on 14 (down two). The Social Democrats formed government with the assistance of two smaller centrist parties. The Left-Green Movement lost all its eight seats after falling below the threshold.

I previously covered the December 1 Romanian parliamentary election. Right-wing to far-right parties made large gains at the expense of the centre-left PSD and conservative PNL, who had been in a coalition government since September 2021. These two parties formed another coalition government on December 23, but also needed the support of the Hungarian minority party UDMR.

Of the 69 Botswana MPs, 61 were elected by FPTP with the remaining appointed. At the October 30 election, the centre-left UDC won 36 seats (up 28 since 2019), the social democratic BCP 15 (up eight) and the conservative BDP four (down 34). The BDP had governed continuously since the first Botswana election in 1965.

At the November 24 Uruguayan presidential runoff election, the left-wing Broad Front’s candidate defeated the incumbent conservative National by a 52.0-48.0 margin. Both parliamentary chambers were elected by PR on October 27, held with the first round of the presidential election. The Broad Front won 16 of the 30 senators (a majority), and 48 of the 99 seats in the Chamber of Representatives, two short of a majority.

South Korean and French government crises

South Korea’s conservative president not impeached after declaring martial law, while France’s PM loses no-confidence motion. Also: Romania’s presidential election annulled

On Tuesday night, South Korean conservative president Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, a move that got international media coverage. Hours later, Yoon was forced to withdraw this declaration.

A two-thirds majority of parliament’s 300 seats was needed to impeach Yoon. The opposition centre-left Democrats and allies hold a 192-108 majority, so they needed eight MPs from Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) to support impeachment. But PPP MPs boycotted Saturday’s vote, and it was declared invalid with only 195 MPs voting, short of the 200 needed to impeach. Impeachment required 200 votes, with abstentions effectively No votes.

If Yoon had been impeached, he would have been suspended and replaced by the PM, Han Duck-soo, a Yoon appointee. If six of the nine judges of South Korea’s highest court agreed with the impeachment or Yoon resigned, new presidential elections would be required within 60 days.

Yoon won the March 2022 presidential election by a 48.6-47.8 margin over the Democratic candidate, and his five-year term ends in 2027. Even before the current crisis, Yoon was very unpopular with over 70% disapproving of his performance. At April 2024 parliamentary elections, the PPP was thumped. A poll had 73.6% of South Koreans favouring impeachment.

French PM ousted after losing no-confidence vote

French President Emmanuel Macron called parliamentary elections for early July, three years before they were due. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) won 180 of the 677 seats, Macron’s centrist Ensemble 159, the far-right National Rally (RN) and allies 142 and the conservative Republicans 39. After the 2022 elections, Ensemble was easily the largest party with 245 seats, though well short of the 289 needed for a majority.

In September Macron appointed the conservative Michel Barnier PM. With the NFP hostile to him, Barnier depended on RN not supporting a no-confidence motion. Barnier used a French parliamentary procedure to force through an unpopular budget measure without a vote last Monday, so the only way to block this measure was by a no-confidence motion. The RN supported the NFP’s no-confidence motion. On Wednesday Barnier’s government was defeated by 331 votes to 244 after only three months. It was the first successful no-confidence motion since 1962.

Macron cannot call new parliamentary elections until July 2025. A centrist or conservative PM would be likely to suffer Barnier’s fate. Whoever Macron appoints as his new PM will need to be someone who can keep the support of either the NFP or RN. Either of these blocs combined with Ensemble would be enough for a governing majority.

Romanian court annuls presidential election

On November 24, a far-right and pro-Russia independent topped the first round of the Romanian presidential election with 22.9%, followed by a pro-EU candidate on 19.18%, a centre-left candidate on 19.15% and another right-wing candidate on 13.9%. The runoff was to be held today, but on Friday a Romanian court annulled the election owing to Russian influence, so the first round will need to be rerun.

Romanian parliamentary elections occurred on December 1. The 331 lower house MPs and 136 senators were elected by proportional representation in 43 multi-member electorates based on Romania’s counties with a 5% national threshold. After the fall of the previous government in September 2021, the centre-left PSD and conservative PNL had formed a grand coalition. At this election, the PSD and PNL lost their combined majority, with big gains for three right-wing to far-right parties. The PSD and PNL will need the cnetre to centre-right USR to form a majority.

Irish election results wrap

At the November 29 Irish election, there were 174 seats in 43 multi-member electorates that used the Hare-Clark system with three to five members per electorate. There were 14 more total seats than at the March 2020 election.

The conservative Fianna Fáil won 48 seats (up ten from 2020), the left-wing Sinn Féin 39 (up two), the conservative Fine Gael 38 (up three), the Social Democrats 11 (up five), Labour 11 (up five), the right-wing Independent Ireland four (new) and independents 16 (down three). The Greens were reduced to just one seat (down 11) after being part of the previous FF/FG government. FF and FG combined have 86 seats, only two short of a majority.

Irish election vote counting live

Updates on the Irish vote counting from tonight. Also covered: near-final US election results, UK news and polls and other recent European elections.

9:41am Tuesday With all 174 seats declared, it’s 48 FF, 39 SF, 38 FG, 11 Labour, 11 Social Democrats, four Independent Ireland, three People Before Profit, two Aontu, one Green, 16 independents and one other. Adding FF and FG gives 86 seats for the two main conservative parties, only two short of a majority. They’ll retain their governing coalition with support from either Independent Ireland or some of the independents.

9:16am Monday With 130 of 174 seats declared it’s 34 FF, 30 SF, 29 FG, nine Social Democrats, eight Labour, three Independent Ireland (right-wing), three People before Profit, two Aontu (conservative, anti-abortion), one Green and 11 independents. Final vote shares were 21.9% FF, 20.8% FG, 19.0% SF, under 5% for various other parties and 13.2% for independents.

10:50pm There’s still one electorate that hasn’t yet reported its first preference count. So far 46 of the 174 seats have been declared, with FF and FG both doing better than SF.

10:40am It’s now 11:40pm Saturday in Ireland, and nearly 15 hours after counting started there are still four of 43 electorates that haven’t yet completed their first preference counts. I don’t think pre-poll or postal votes were allowed, so this is slow progress.

9:53am With 36 of 43 electorates having completed their first preference count, SF is down 6.0% from 2020 and the Greens down 4.5%. The biggest gainer is the right-wing Independent Ireland (up 3.6%, new), with the Social Democrats up 2.4% and the conservative Aontu up 2.1%. The two main conservative parties, FF and FG, are roughly flat compared with 2020.

6:49am Sunday With 20 of 43 electorates having completed their first preference counts, SF is down 6.9% from 2020 on a matched electorate basis and the Greens are down 4.9%. The gains are going to independents (up 4.0%) and other small parties, with FF and FG both down 1%. Completed electorates so far are mainly in Dublin, so overall vote shares still look close between the top three parties. But a 6.9% swing against SF from 2020 would give them only 17.6%.

11:02pm With all votes counted in Dublin Central, SF leader Mary Lou McDonald has 20%, which is down 16% from what she got in this seat in 2020. If this is repeated in other seats, SF will do much worse than polls indicate. There won’t be official results posted until all first preference counting has been completed in an electorate.

9:46pm Irish broadcaster RTE has a live blog with reports of counts of ballot boxes that have been opened so far. However, I can’t see any information about the overall totals, only information on particular electorates presented without any swing info.

The Irish election was held on Friday, but vote counting doesn’t start until 9am Saturday in Ireland (8pm AEDT). Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections. At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates, with three to five members per electorate. It will take at least a few days to get the final number of MPs for each party.

Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included. The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.

In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 2023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG. Pre-election polls suggest SF support has recovered slightly, and there’s a three-way tie between the leading parties, but the two conservative parties are likely to form a coalition government.

US election near-final results

With nearly all votes counted for the November 5 US election, Donald Trump won the presidency by 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris. Trump swept the seven key states of Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan. He won the popular vote by 49.8-48.3 (77.15 million votes to 74.75 million). In 2020 Joe Biden had defeated Trump by 306 electoral votes to 232 on a popular vote margin of 51.3-46.8 (81.3 million votes to 74.2 million).

All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election every two years. Republicans won the House by a narrow 220-215 margin, a two-seat gain for Democrats since the 2022 midterms.

Each of the 50 states has two senators, with one-third up for election every two years. Before this election, Democrats and allied independents held a 51-49 Senate majority, but they were defending 23 of the 33 seats up, including three in states Trump won easily. Republicans gained these three seats and also Pennsylvania, to take a 53-47 Senate majority. But Democrats defended their seats in four of the five presidential key states that also held Senate elections.

UK news and polls

On November 2, Kemi Badenoch was elected Conservative leader, defeating Robert Jenrick in a Conservative members’ vote by 56.5-43.5. Both candidates had qualified by not getting eliminated in the rounds of Conservative MPs’ votes.

Labour’s lead has dropped quickly, and they’re in a rough tie with the Conservatives, with two recent polls giving the Conservatives a lead. Reform has about 18%, the Liberal Democrats 12% and the Greens 8%. In other news, there’s a push by Labour MPs to change the electoral system from first past the post to proportional representation.

Lithuania, Moldova, Bulgaria and Romania

Of the 141 Lithuanian seats, 71 are elected in single-member electorates using a two-round system and the remaining 70 by national PR. At October 13 and 27 elections, the centre-left LSDP won 52 seats (up 39 since 2020), the conservative TS-LKD 28 (down 22), the populist PPNA 20 (new), the green DSVL 14 (new) and a green-conservative party eight (down 24). The LSDP formed a governing coalition with the PPNA and DSVL.

At the November 3 Moldovan presidential runoff, the pro-western incumbent defeated the pro-Russian candidate by a 55.4-44.6 margin.

Owing to failure to form a lasting government, there have been six elections in Bulgaria since 2021, with the latest on October 27. PR in multi-member electorates was used to allocate the 240 seats with a 4% national threshold. It appears unlikely that a government will be formed after this election.

In the first round of the Romanian presidential election on November 24, a far-right and pro-Russsia independent topped the poll with 22.9%, followed by a pro-EU candidate on 19.18%, a centre-left candidate on 19.15% and another right-wing candidate on 13.9%. A recount is being held to determine who finishes second and proceeds to the December 8 runoff.

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