US House special election and Indonesian election live

Can US Democrats gain George Santos’ former seat at a special election? Also: the right-wing Prabowa likely to win Indonesia’s presidential election.

Live Commentary

11:17am Thursday Wikipedia says quick counts gave Prabowa between 53.4% and 59.8%. In the official count, with 39% reporting, Prabowa has 56.0%. The legislative count is far less advanced than the presidential count.

7:44pm Al Jazeera reports that quick counts from all polls have Prabowa leading with 58% to 61% with 26% to 35% of votes counted. So Prabowa will be the next Indonesian president, winning a first round majority.

6:13pm From Al Jazeera, election law prevents publication of “quick counts” before 8am GMT (7pm AEDT). So we should get some quick count results, which have been accurate in the past, after that time.

5:31pm This is the Al Jazeera live results blog.

5:10pm All polls have now closed in Indonesia. Al Jazeera has a live blog, but no results so far. Preliminary results are expected to be released this evening.

4:11pm With 93% in, Suozzi’s margin drops slightly to 53.9-46.1. Biden won this district by 8.2% in 2020, so there’s virtually no swing from the Biden 2020 margin. The big swing is from Santos’ 53.8-46.2 win in 2022.

3:50pm Recycling this paragraph from the Intro for those getting carried away by the special election results: Democrats have been successful at state and federal by-elections (called “special” elections in the US) since the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, overturning Roe vs Wade in June 2022. But New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says turnout at these by-elections is much lower than it will be at the general election this November. Voters who show up at by-elections are far more motivated by abortion than the general electorate.

2:57pm With 84% in overall, Suozzi leads by 54.2-45.8. 83% now counted in Nassau, and Suozzi is down to a 53-47 lead there. These latest results make the polls look more accurate.

2:35pm More results from Nassau (70% counted there now) reduce Suozzi’s overall lead to 55-45.

2:28pm It will actually be a 219-213 Rep House majority owing to a Dem’s resignation on Feb 2. There are special elections to come between late April and June to replace the two Reps and the Dem who have resigned.

2:07pm Race CALLED for Suozzi, and that’s a Dem gain, reducing the Rep House majority to 219-214. Should have put link to results in earlier.

2:04pm 45% of Nassau now in, and Suozzi leads there by 58-42 and overall by 59-41. Looks very good for Suozzi.

1:31pm Suozzi leads by 63-37 in Queens with 86% in and 51-49 in Nassau with 2% in. The large majority of this district is in Nassau, but counting is slow there.

1:16pm With 9% in, Suozzi (Dem) leads Pilip (Rep) by 63-37. However, the NYC borough of Queens has 60% counted already, with Suozzi up there by 63-37. There are few votes so far in the regional county of Nassau.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Polls close at 1pm AEDT today for a US federal by-election in New York’s third congressional district. I wrote in January that this seat was formerly held by Republican George Santos before he was expelled from the House of Representatives on December 1.

Santos had gained from the Democrats at the 2022 midterm elections, winning by a 53.8-46.2 margin. Joe Biden had won this seat against Donald Trump at the 2020 presidential election by an 8.2% margin.

The by-election candidates are Democrat Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip. A mid-January Emerson College poll gave Suozzi a 45-42 lead over Pilip. Two early February polls from Emerson and Siena gave Suozzi three-to-four-point leads.

Republicans won the House in 2022 by a 222-213 margin, but there are currently three vacancies in Republican-held seats including this one. A Democratic win in this by-election would reduce the Republican House majority to 219-214.

Democrats have been successful at state and federal by-elections (called “special” elections in the US) since the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, overturning Roe vs Wade in June 2022. But New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says turnout at these by-elections is much lower than it will be at the general election this November. Voters who show up at by-elections are far more motivated by abortion than the general electorate.

On February 8, Biden gave a press conference in response to a special counsel’s report on classified documents that had been found at his home. The line in the report that was most damaging to Biden described him as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory”.

Most national polls have Trump leading Biden by single-digit margins for the general election. The US Electoral Vote system is likely to advantage Trump over national polls. Biden’s net approval in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate is -16.9, while Trump’s net favourability is -9.3.

Polls will close at 9am AEDT Friday for by-elections in two UK Conservative-held seats. I will have more on these by-elections in a separate post, and also more on recent international elections.

Updates on the presidential primaries

Republican presidential candidates in Nevada had to choose to contest either the February 6 primary or the February 8 caucus, which allocated all of Nevada’s delegates. Trump contested the caucus, while Nikki Haley contested the primary.

Nevada has a “none of these candidates” option on its ballot papers. In the primary, “none of these candidates” crushed Haley by 63–30. Trump won 99% in the Nevada caucus, where he was effectively unopposed. Trump leads Haley nationally by 76-18 in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate and by 65-32 in Haley’s home state of South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary February 24.

Biden won the February 3 South Carolina Democratic primary with 96% and the February 6 Nevada Democratic primary with 89%, and will easily win the Democratic presidential nomination.

Prabowo likely to win Indonesian election

I covered the presidential and legislative elections in Indonesia in January. If no presidential candidate wins a majority, there will be a June 26 runoff. The 580 lower house seats are elected by proportional representation in multi-member electorates with a 4% national threshold. Senatorial candidates cannot be members of a political party. Four senators are elected per province for a total of 152.

Indonesia spans three time zones, with polls closing between 3pm and 5pm AEDT today. This Al Jazeera article says a preliminary result is likely to be announced this evening, but the final results could take 35 days.

The latest polls all give Prabowa Subianto over 50%, so it’s likely that he wins outright today. Prabowa is the candidate of a religious and right-wing alliance who lost to incumbent president Joko Widodo in both the 2014 and 2019 elections. Gibran Rakabuming, the eldest child of Joko, is Prabowo’s running mate. The other two candidates are Ganjar Pranowo, who represents the secularist PDI-P (Joko’s party) and independent Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta.

45 comments on “US House special election and Indonesian election live”

  1. It will be interesting to see how if polling in Indonesia is accurate. The country is very large and very diverse. Although the bulk of the population is on Java and Sumatra, there is still a lot diversity in those places. One wonders how the polling companies go about getting a random sample of such a population.

  2. There’s been heavy snow in the New York area today (albeit doesn’t seem to have been quite as heavy as forecast), which will presumably depress turnout on the day – thanks in part to Trumpist conspiracy-mongering about early/postal voting, early voting tends to skew Democratic, which might come back to bite the Republicans.

  3. Here’s an interesting overview in the Conversation about would-be Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.

    https://theconversation.com/cute-grandpa-or-authoritarian-in-waiting-who-is-prabowo-subianto-the-favourite-to-win-indonesias-presidential-election-221858?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20February%2012%202024%20-%202876329187&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20February%2012%202024%20-%202876329187+CID_0ecc53f998dc2a00abd240586d1d9dde&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Cute%20grandpa%20or%20authoritarian%20in%20waiting%20who%20is%20Prabowo%20Subianto%20the%20favourite%20to%20win%20Indonesias%20presidential%20election

  5. With Indonesia having now become a second home of sorts for me, I’ve been watching the election with some interest. (At least, as much as is possible given how dreadful my Indonesian is.)

    Looks like Probowo is likely to romp it, in, sadly. Even here in Bali, where it’s majority Hindu and the PDI-P tends to win by huge margins, I’ve been seeing a loads of posters for Gerindra (Probowo’s party) everywhere. I haven’t the faintest idea how accurate Indonesian polling is, however, so who knows?

  6. Whoever wins in NY, the swing will be the interesting bit. Of course, if Suozzi(D) wins over Pilip(R) it also reduces the GOP majority by another member. (It already dropped by 1 when Santos was expelled.)

  7. Socrates –

    No, I haven’t seen much of anything about Prabowo’s attitude to Australia, though given the Javanese elite’s (of which he is very much one) long-standing good relations with Australia, my best guess is that it will be business as usual. However, Prabowo’s political stances on a whole range of matters is something of a mystery, with his political persona bending in response to the political winds. That alone suggests that he’ll be something of a pragmatist, but I guess none of us will really know until he takes office.

  14. Just a lil correction, the new party composition of the House is now 219-213 to the Republicans, not 219-214, because of a Democrat’s resignation at the start of the month.

  15. On current counting that would be a 12.5% swing, or 25% depending on how you measure it.

    2022: D46.2 – 53.8R (delta = 7.6%)
    2024: D58.7 – 41.3R (delta = 17.4%)

  17. According to MSNBC Steve Kornecki In 2022 midterm election Santos won Nassau county by about 10%. Now GOP is trailing in Nassau county by +10%, a turnaround of 20%.

  18. Gee, what an ass smacking for the Republicans

    53-47 turns into 47-53 in less than 2 years. Some thoughts:

    1. Obviously Santos scandals did not bode well for the Repugs
    2. Nassau County is the richest one in NY State, and they have flipped bigly . The well-heeled stockbrokers and old money must be quietly disgusted with Trump and his MAGA cult

  19. NaYeahMatesays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 2:17 pm
    Just a lil correction, the new party composition of the House is now 219-213 to the Republicans, not 219-214, because of a Democrat’s resignation at the start of the month.
    =====================================================

    Does that mean another congress by-election will occur soon or has the person become an independent?. If a by-election what sort of margin does the seat have?.

  20. Entropy says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 3:21 pm
    From top of thread…

    2:28pm It will actually be a 219-213 Rep House majority owing to a Dem’s resignation on Feb 2. There are special elections to come between late April and June to replace the two Reps and the Dem who have resigned.

  21. This is a very pleasing result for the Democrats. It makes me think that that those polls showing a close race here are either missing Democratic voters or over-counting Republicans. The Democrats have pretty consistently done well in special elections this cycle. It does show that Democrats are motivated to vote in these elections, which should bode well for November.

    In addition to NY-03, the Democrats easily held a PA State House district and put a scare in an OK State House district (losing only 50-45 in an R+26 district). So these are good signs.

  22. These latest results make the polls look more accurate
    ———————————
    Looking like an 8pt win vs polls saying 3-4pts. That’s good (ish?) for US district polling. But still 4pts off.

  23. Yeah, I would’ve been worried if the Dems had only just snuck over the line. But an 8-point win (or there abouts) is quite comfortable, and quite a bit larger than the polls predicted. The three I saw had it as D+4, D+4 and D+1. That’s not D+8. But I guess that error is about normal for a district poll.

  24. It was always a seat that was likely to switch back to being Democratic in November given that turnout would likely be higher in a Presidential election year than at the mid-terms. Adding George Soros to that and it looked very likely to be a flipping seat. The fact that the House Republicans allowed him to get the boot showed he was a serious drag on their messages.

  25. Ny3 election currently sitting at 8.4 gap between D and R, indicating a 2.6% over performance by Democrats (relative to racetothewh forecast), consistent with every other election result since pollsters added R bias to their methodology in response to trump beating Hilary against expectations.

    Racetothewh currently has Trump ahead by 1.8%, so taking out the deliberate overestimate of R, that actually means they’re forecasting a 0.8% lead to Biden.

    Making such an adjustment would put penn and Wisconsin in leans Biden territory, giving Biden 254 EC votes to 283 (and NE-2 unallocated due to lack of data).

    So while this is an ok result for D, it’s not a good one. It leaves us expecting Trump in the Whitehouse, republicans at 51 senate seats (plus tiebreak) and with Democrats taking the house but at risk due to a very thin majority.

    The malaportionment by which low population states are overrepresented in the senate and EC is enough to outweigh the slight advantage the democrats have in getting more votes

  26. If Trump is still maintaining a 2-point or so lead after the Conventions, then I’d be worried. My own theory is that there are alot of Democrats who do think Biden is old, and still think that someone else will be the either the Democratic or Republican nominee. But once it crystallises that the race is going to be Biden vs Trump again, those Democratic voters will come home and vote for him again. Anyway, we’ll see.

  27. Scepticsays:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 3:26 pm
    Entropy says:
    Wednesday, February 14, 2024 at 3:21 pm
    From top of thread…

    2:28pm It will actually be a 219-213 Rep House majority owing to a Dem’s resignation on Feb 2. There are special elections to come between late April and June to replace the two Reps and the Dem who have resigned
    ====================================================

    Thanks, so 3 more seats to be added to the overall tally due to elections within the next 4 months. Is that likely to go 2 Rep and 1 Dem? or is a flip possible in some of these seats?.

  28. So the final results look like being 54-46, D+8. As Adrian says, that is in line with the 2020 election result. Given that ended up with Biden winning by +4 nationally, I’ll take that as a good sign. What it is not a sign of is depressed Democratic turnout in elections.

  29. YaramahZ @ #28 Wednesday, February 14th, 2024 – 4:09 pm

    So the final results look like being 54-46, D+8. As Adrian says, that is in line with the 2020 election result. Given that ended up with Biden winning by +4 nationally, I’ll take that as a good sign. What it is not a sign of is depressed Democratic turnout in elections.

    Biden may have won by 4% nationally but only by smidgeons in a handful of states that got him over the line. It is great that Democrats did well in NY (3) compared to 2020. But Biden needs to hold in Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Arizona compared to 2020. And watch out for surprises in a couple of others.

  31. Adrian, I wouldnt put all my eggs in the Nate C basket on this.

    Firstly, this was a strong GOP candidate. They dont often put these up these days. So I would have expected a stronger result from them in this compared to Bidens 2020 result.

    Secondly – the hyper partisan nature of US politics in the MAGA age may be making special elections more predictive.

    “Thanks to a hyperpartisan environment, special elections have gone national, with money and press attention flowing to these races as never before. At the moment, this is a particularly challenging development for Republicans, who since the 2016 general election have faced repeated, and at times shocking, defeats in a string of special elections.”

    https://www.governing.com/gov-institute/voices/col-myth-special-elections-recalls.html

  32. Team Katich – True, but these special election results do suggest the national environment is not Trump +2. Either that, or there’s a vastly different electorate for special elections than national elections now, with Democrats more likely to show-up for special elections compared to Republicans. That would be very different from the Obama years.

  33. Team Katich, Adrian.

    Interesting analysis there. There has definitely been a shift in special elections in favour of Democrats recently.

    I do agree that come November, assuming Trump is on the ballot and not convicted of any crime, he will draw a lot of low propensity voters to the polls. When he’s not there, they perform poorly, see the GA-Sen runoffs. So the different electorate could favour Republicans much more in November. We’ll see if that’s correct. Plus there are three more special elections for the House to come, for us to test these turnout hypothesis. The election for Kevin McCarthy’s seat in CA I’m very interested in seeing the final margin there.

  34. Indonesian result are legally only allow to be released from 7pm EDST – if I read that right. I have been testing my 3 years of high school Bahasa Indonesia.

  36. Hasil hitung cepat bukanlah hasil resmi pemilu. Hasil resmi tetap menunggu perhitungan suara secara manual oleh KPU.

    Translates as the Quick Count is not an offical count. The offical results have to wait for KPU (Indonesian version of AEC) to do a manual count.

  37. YaramahZ
    “assuming Trump is on the ballot and not convicted of any crime”
    —
    All indications are that the GOP will put Mr Tup on the ballot. But he faces 91 criminal indictments. He’s not going to duck them all come November, possibly even come July.

  39. fwiw, 538 saying that even with 97% counted (NY -3), they expect the margin to reduce a point or two. So, a 6-7pt margin.

    Also, here is an interesting take from Skelley at 538 (abcNEWS);

    While Suozzi looks to be en route to a 6-to-7 point victory, it’s pretty clear he won among an electorate that had an unfavorable view of Biden: 57 percent of likely voters had an unfavorable view of the president in a Siena College/Newsday survey of the special election… we saw something like this in the 2022 midterm elections, when the exit poll found that Democrats narrowly won among those who somewhat disapproved of Biden’s job performance. This was a notable shift from the 2010 and 2014 midterms, when those who somewhat disapproved of Barack Obama backed Republicans by some distance

  40. TK

    This was a notable shift from the 2010 and 2014 midterms, when those who somewhat disapproved of Barack Obama backed Republicans by some distance

    I’m hanging onto the idea that Republicans can’t win primaries without Mr Tup, and they can’t win elections with him.

  41. Biden is an interesting case.

    In spite of MAGA world’s best attempts to make him so, he’s not polarising like Trump is.

    He is, in fact, like that withering report said: a well-meaning old man and his strength has always been in his relatability and humour (if he keeps his temper out of sight), he polls quite well on ‘likeability’.

    It’s as if people want him to do well, and are disappointed that (for many of them) he doesn’t seem to be. But they don’t massively dislike him, so he doesn’t attract the same vote AGAINST him from unaffiliated voters as Trump does.

  42. Likeability has been a useful indicator of sorts in past elections.

    I always remember how after the most-watched Bush-Kerry debate in the 2004 election campaign, Kerry was judged by voters to have won on 12 of 13 traits/competencies they were asked about the two candidates. And judged to have won the debate.

    But the one Bush won on – likeability – was perhaps the most important, especially for an incumbent and he won the election. His easy, folksy charm was/is worlds away from the lazy and simplistic (arguably inaccurate but let’s not go there. . .), warmongering stereotype painted of him in media around the world and not what even his detractors back home saw/see him as at all (in general, as compared to elsewhere in the world that didn’t experience 9/11).

  43. 65-32% Trump-Haley in South Carolina is way exaggerating Trump’s lead as of today, and both the last polls in Wiki show Trump in 50s, and that’s before Haley had got far into campaigning following her NH primary loss.

    Latest polling has mid-date of 28-29 January, so we are well overdue some more polls of SC to give an updated snapshot.

    I am also intrigued – but have literally no idea – what will happen to the 400k voters who voted in the Democrat primary in SC four years ago who didn’t bother this year with it being a foregone conclusion – that’s turnout down about 75%! They have every right to vote in the GOP primary if they didn’t vote in the other, even if they are Democrats.

    Will they do so? – and will they come out more heavily for Haley or for Trump (even if the latter is more likely to be because of perceiving Trump to be the more beatable candidate in November, thus wanting to stop Haley winning)?

  44. Looks like the PDI-D needs to move on from Megawatti. Not sure what direction that a somewhat more Right-wing government will take Indonesia. Hopefully they maintain democracy but the scope of the win is such that they might be able to run rough shot over the laws and constitution.

  45. A reminder – two byelections in the UK today(Thursday), both Labour has a good chance of winning off the Tories. I’m sure Adrian will have more to say about them tomorrow.

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