Category: International Politics

Welsh and Scottish elections live

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections occur today, as well as English local elections. Plus further updates on gerrymandering in the US.

Live Commentary

10:48am Sunday With all 136 councils declared, the results are Reform 1,453 councillors (up 1,451), Labour 1,068 (down 1,496), Lib Dems 844 (up 155), Tories 801 (down 563) and Greens 587 (up 441). So Labour lost 58% of seats it was defending, a bit better than expected. Councils controlled are Labour 28 (down 38), Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), Tories nine (down six), Greens five (up five) and Aspire one (up one – Tower Hamlets), with 64 with no overall control (up 23).

12:09pm These elections were about as bad as expected for Labour in England and Scotland, and worse than expected in Wales. The party that had dominated Wales since the first devolved election in 1999 won just nine out of 96 seats. The pre-election polls were good in Scotland, but overstated Labour and understated PC in Wales.

11:36am After results from 130 of 136 English councils, Reform won 1,443 councillors (up 1,441), Labour 959 (down 1,395), the Lib Dems 834 (up 151), the Tories 773 (down 555) and the Greens 511 (up 370). Councils controlled are Labour 27 (down 35), the Lib Dems 15 (up one), Reform 14 (up 14), the Tories nine (down six) and the Greens four (up four), with 61 with no overall control (up 22). I expect the remaining councils by Sunday morning AEST. While the Greens were runner-up to Reform with 18% according to the BBC’s PNS, their vote appears to have been too evenly dispersed to beat Labour, the Tories or the Lib Dems in number of councillors.

11:25am In English mayoral elections, the Greens have also gained Lewisham from Labour to add to their gain in Hackney. These are the first two directly elected Greens mayors. The other four mayoral elections have all been holds for the Tories, Labour, the Lib Dems and Aspire in Tower Hamlets.

10:59am With counting complete in Scotland, the SNP won 58 of the 129 seats (down six since 2021), Labour 17 (down four), Reform 17 (up 17), the Greens 15 (up six), the Tories 12 (down 19) and the Lib Dems ten (up six). Vote shares in the FPTP seats were 38.2% SNP (down 9.5%), 19.2% Labour (down 2.4%), 15.8% Reform (new), 11.8% Tories (down 10.1%), 11.4% Lib Dems (up 4.4%) and 2.3% Greens (up 1.0%). In the list seats, the SNP won 27.2% and the Greens 14.0%.

7am The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) for these council elections gives Reform 26% of the vote (down four since the 2025 council elections), the Greens 18% (up seven), the Tories 17% (up two), Labour 17% (down three) and the Lib Dems 16% (down one). In 2022, the last time most of these seats were elected, Labour won the PNS by 35-30 over the Tories with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS is a figure for what would have happened had council elections been held nationally, and can be compared from one year of elections to the next.

6:44am In Scotland, 115 of the 129 seats have been declared, including all 73 FPTP seats. In the FPTP seats, the SNP won 57 seats (down six on 2021), the Lib Dems seven (up three), the Tories four (down one), Labour three (up two) and the Greens two (up two). Reform didn’t win any FPTP seats. The SNP and Greens are already at a combined 69 seats (57 SNP and 12 Greens), above the 65 needed for a majority.

6:31am Saturday Counting in Wales is complete, with the BBC showing seat changes from 2021 using a redistribution (as there were 60 total seats in 2021 vs 96 now). The nationalist Plaid Cymru won 43 seats (up 20), Reform 34 (up 34), Labour nine (down 35), the Tories seven (down 22), the Greens two (up two) and the Lib Dems one (up one). PC is six seats short of a majority, with Labour their most plausible partner. Vote shares were 35.4% PC (up 14.7%), 29.3% Reform (up 28.2%), 11.1% Labour (down 25.1%), 10.7% Tories (down 14.3%), 6.7% Greens (up 2.4%) and 4.5% Lib Dems (up 0.1%).

11:15pm And that’s all from me until tomorrow morning.

11:14pm In Scotland, after seven of the 73 FPTP seats have declared, the SNP has won six and the Lib Dems one, a gain for the SNP at the Lib Dems’ expense. There are still no Welsh results, but the Labour Welsh First Minister is expected to lose her seat and Labour is expected to only win ten seats out of 96 (they won 30 out of 60 in 2021).

11:06pm In English councils after 63 of 136 results, Reform has won 561 councillors (up 559), the Lib Dems 336 (up 28), the Tories 305 (down 249), Labour 292 (down 380) and the Greens 106 (up 58). Councils controlled are Labour 13 (down 11), the Lib Dems eight (up one), the Tories six (down two) and Reform three (up three), with 33 NOC (up nine). Labour’s proportional seat losses have increased on counting tonight.

9:58pm The SNP have held Dundee City West by 49-25 over Labour with 13% for Reform. That’s a 12.5% drop in the SNP vote.

9:49pm The first Scottish result is in, with the Lib Dems retaining Orkney Islands by 70-16 over the SNP, an 8% swing to the Lib Dems and 13% against the SNP since 2021.

9:07pm There are no counts available yet, but the Greens have gained Hackney mayoralty from Labour. That’s a former Labour stronghold in London. Update: the Greens defeated Labour by 47.2-35.5 with 8.4% for the Tories and 5.3% for Reform.

8:34pm Counting in Wales and Scotland started at 6pm AEST, with first Scottish results expected at about 9pm.

8:25pm After 46 of 136 English councils, Reform have won 401 councillors (up 399), the Tories 256 (down 174), Labour 253 (down 260), the Lib Dems 251 (up 37) and the Greens 53 (up 28). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down eight), the Tories six (down one), the Lib Dems five (up one) and Reform two (up two), with 23 for NOC (up six).

4:50pm There’s going to be a lull in counting until tonight, when we’ll get Welsh and Scottish results and 96 further council results.

4:06pm The Tories have regained Westminster in London from Labour after losing it in 2022. In inner London councils, it’s just Tories vs Labour. The Tories won 32 of the 54 seats, a nine-seat gain.

3:51pm Reform takes its first council, gaining Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Tories. All 44 seats were up, with Reform winning 27 (up 27), the Tories 15 (down ten) and Labour two (down 17).

3:44pm (three paragraph entry) After 38 of 136 councils, Reform has 317 councillors (up 317), Labour 219 (down 240), the Lib Dems 236 (up 35), the Tories 190 (down 117) and the Greens 48 (up 26). Councils controlled are Labour ten (down seven), Lib Dems five (up one) and Tories three (steady), with No Overall Control (NOC) 20 (up six).

While Labour has lost over half the seats they held, they’re doing better so far than some projections that had them losing 70% of their current seats. Curtice said the Greens are getting about 18%, but this isn’t quite enough in FPTP to win large numbers of seats.

In 2022, Labour gained Wandsworth from the Tories, ending 44 years of Tory dominance in this London council. This election (an all-out election), the Tories regained seven seats, but didn’t quite win a majority, finishing with 29 of 58 seats, to 28 Labour and one independent.

2:21pm Curtice says Reform is averaging 40% where at least 60% voted for Brexit, but only 9% where fewer than 40% voted to Leave. In contrast, the Greens are at 26% in pro-Remain areas but 12% in pro-Leave areas.

1:35pm BBC election analyst John Curtice says in key wards, Reform have 30% of the vote, Labour 16%, the Greens 15% (up ten since 2022). The Tories are down 14% since 2022 and the Lib Dems down 5%.

1:31pm Wigan is a good example of the one-third up for election rule helping the former major parties retain control. Of the 25 seats up for election, Reform won 24 with Labour losing all 22 seats they were defending. But Labour retains control with 42 of the total 75 seats.

1:19pm After 26 of 136 councils, Reform has won 224 councillors (up 224), Labour 84 (down 162), the Lib Dems 68 (down three), the Tories 67 (down 65) and the Greens 34 (up 22). Councils controlled are Labour seven (down five), Lib Dems three (up one), Tories two (steady) and no overall control 14 (up four).

11:59am The Lib Dems have gained control of Stockport in Greater Manchester (previously no overall control). The damage to Labour and the Tories in councils controlled has been limited so far by only having one-third of councillors up at this election. London councils to come in later will have all-out elections.

11:19am After 11 of 136 councils declared, Reform has 93 councillors (up 93), the Tories 13 (down 20), Labour 12 (down 67), the Lib Dems 12 (down three) and the Greens six (up four). Councils controlled are Labour four (down three), the Tories one (steady) and no overall control six (up three). In councils in so far, only one-third of seats have been up for election, so Labour’s controls are from the two-thirds that are not up.

10:46am Reform has won 46 councillors (up 46), Labour six (down 37), the Lib Dems five (down two), the Greens four (up three) and the Tories two (down five).

10:04am Councillors won so far are Reform 12 (up 12 since 2022), Labour two (down 12), Lib Dems two (up one), Greens one (up one) and Tories zero (down two).

9:52am The two councils that have been called Labour holds are because only one-third of seats were up for election, and Labour held nearly all the seats not up for election.

9:45am Slow going so far, with only four ward results in. The BBC says we should get results from ten councils soon.

9:10am Friday The BBC’s live blog says counting in Wales and Scotland won’t begin until Friday UK time (tonight AEST).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Continue reading “Welsh and Scottish elections live”

Welsh and Scottish elections minus ten days

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections occur on May 7, as well as English local elections. In the US, a referendum passes in Virginia that will allow a Democratic gerrymander.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local government elections will occur on Thursday May 7. Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. At this election, there will be 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates by proportional representation. This reform scraps the first-past-the-post seats.

The Election Maps UK aggregate gives the left-wing Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru 29.1%, followed by the populist right Reform at 26.4%, Labour 14.9%, the Conservatives 10.3%, the Greens 10.3% and the Liberal Democrats 6.0%. Seat projections give Plaid 38 seats, Reform 30, Labour 13, the Conservatives eight, the Greens five and the Lib Dems two. If this occurs, Plaid and Labour combined would be able to govern.

Of the 129 Scottish seats, 73 are elected by FPTP and 56 are list seats, with the list seats used to maintain overall proportionality, so that parties that dominate FPTP seats win few list seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011.

In the Election Maps UK aggregate, the SNP has 35.2% of the vote in the FPTP seats, followed by 18.0% for Labour, 17.6% Reform, 10.8% Conservatives, 10.1% Lib Dems and 6.0% Greens. In list seats, the Greens have 13.0% and the SNP 29.4%. Seat projections give the SNP 61, Labour 18, Reform 17, the Greens 13, the Conservatives 11 and the Lib Dems nine. If this occurs, the SNP will hold government with the Greens’ support.

A total of 5,066 coucillors will be up for election in England on May 7. The large majority of councillors were last elected at the 2022 local elections. At those elections, Labour won the Projected National Share (PNS) by 35-30 over the Conservatives with 19% for the Lib Dems. The PNS calculates a national vote share for council elections. At the 2025 local elections, the PNS was 30% Reform, 20% Labour, 17% Lib Dems, 15% Conservatives and 11% Greens.

Current national vote shares are 26.3% Reform, 19.1% Labour, 18.5% Conservatives, 15.8% Greens and 12.2% Lib Dems. If these vote shares occur at the local elections, Reform and the Greens will gain massively at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. Since January, there has been a trend to the Greens and against Reform. Seat projections now have Reform well below a majority in the House of Commons, but adding the Conservatives to Reform gives the right a majority.

US updates

Last Tuesday, a referendum on a Democratic gerrymander in Virginia succeeded by a 51.5-48.5 margin. Subject to legal challenges, Democrats will implement a 10-1 gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats. However, the 3.0-point margin for “yes” was lower than Kamala Harris’ 5.8-point margin over Donald Trump in 2024 in Virginia.

In near-final results from the April 16 New Jersey 11 special election, Democrat Mejia defeated Republican Hathaway by 59.9-39.6, an 11.6-point swing to Democrats from the Harris Trump margin in NJ 11. Since my post on this special, one Democrat has resigned over financial irregularities, and another has died. Republicans hold a 218-212 lead in the House of Representatives with five vacancies.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is a record low -18.5, 1.8 points worse than on April 16. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by an unchanged 5.7 points. Midterm elections occur this November.

Hungarian election final results

Of the 199 Hungarian seats, 106 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 93 by national proportional representation with a 5% threshold. At the April 12 election, the conservative and pro-European Tisza won 141 seats (new), while Viktor Orbán’s governing far-right Fidesz won 52 seats (down 83).

The 141 seats for Tisza is above the 133 needed for a two-thirds supermajority that is required to change the constitution. Tisza won the 106 FPTP seats by 96-10 from vote shares of 55.3-36.7. In the national list, Tisza won 53.2% and Fidesz 38.6% (down 15.5%). At the 2022 election, the United for Hungary (EM) alliance of mainly left-wing parties had won 57 seats. At that election, Fidesz won the FPTP seats by 87-19 on vote shares of 52.5-36.9.

US New Jersey 11 federal special election live

After winning the February Democratic primary with just 29.3%, left-winger Analilia Mejia appears set to win today’s special election.

Live Commentary

2:17pm While the Reps retained Georgia 14 at the April 7 special, Dems had a 25-point gain from the 2024 presidential margin. In this special, there’s only an 11-point gain.

12:52pm With 94% in, Mejia’s vote falls below 60% as she now leads by 59.6-40.0. The remaining votes probably won’t be fully counted for another week. Those votes are likely to skew Dem, so Mejia’s vote will probably be over 60% when everything is counted. At the moment, it’s an 11-point margin shift to Dems compared with the 2024 presidential election result in this district.

12:20pm With 87% in, Mejia’s lead has been reduced to 61.3-38.3. This 23-point margin compares with a 9-point margin in this district for Kamala Harris in 2024.

12:02pm Essex, the most Dem-friendly county, counted nearly all its votes quickly, giving a misleading impression of a huge Dem win. As Morris and Passaic catch up with their election day votes, the Dem lead is being eroded, now at 62.5-37.0 with 79% in.

11:40am Passaic gives Mejia a 19-point lead with 47% in from that county. With 68% counted overall, Mejia leads by 65.8-33.7. Election day vote counting in Morris is reducing her lead.

11:07am Essex, the most Dem-friendly county, just counted its election day votes, reducing Mejia’s overall lead to 68.4-31.1 with 55% in. There are still no results from Passaic county.

10:57am With 44% in for NJ 11, Dem Mejia has won, defeating Rep Hathaway by 69.6-29.9. One of the three counties included in this seat hasn’t reported any results, and that county is probably more right-wing than the other two. Votes counted so far are probably early votes, and election day votes will be better for Hathaway.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 10am AEST today for a federal special election in Democrat Mikie Sherill former New Jersey 11 seat after she resigned following her election as NJ governor in November 2025. I will be out until nearly 11am.

The Democratic nominee is left-winger Analilia Mejia, after she won the February 5 Democratic primary with just 29.3%. Pro-Israel attacks on establishment favourite Tom Malinowski were thought responsible for his loss, finishing second with 27.6%. The Republican nominee is Joe Hathaway. An early March poll gave Mejia a 53-36 lead over Hathaway.

At US general elections, the use of first past the post doesn’t usually affect the outcome as Democrats and Republicans combined win well over 95% of votes. But Malinowski would have likely won the primary had preferential voting been used.

At the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in NJ 11 by 53.3-44.6, an 8.7-point margin. At the 36 state and federal special elections held so far in 2026, Democrats have performed on average 11.1 points better than the Trump vs Harris margin in those same seats.

Republicans hold a 218-213 House of Representatives majority with three other vacancies. The Republican member for California’s first died in early January, with the jungle primary to be held on June 2 and a runoff if needed on August 4. On Tuesday, Democrat Eric Swalwell (California 14) and Republican Tony Gonzalez (Texas 23) resigned their House seats owing to sexual abuse scandals.  A jungle primary will be held in California 14 on June 16 and a runoff if needed on August 18.

Swalwell has also suspended his campaign for California governor. California holds a jungle primary on June 2, with the top two, regardless of party, advancing to the November general election. Before Swalwell’s suspension, polls suggested there was some chance of two Republicans making the runoff in this heavily Democratic state owing to vote splitting between the three leading Democrats (Swalwell, Tom Steyer and Katie Porter). With Swalwell out, that’s no longer a realistic possibility.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -16.7, 0.2 points better than it was in my April 8 article. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.7 points, a 0.2-point improvement for Democrats. Midterm elections occur this November.

Next Tuesday (Wednesday AEST), a referendum on a Democratic gerrymander will be held in Virginia. A “yes” vote at this referendum would give Democrats a 10-1 split from Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats. Three of the last four polls dating from late March have had “yes” leading by 5-9 points, with a smaller-sample poll giving “no” a one-point lead.

Canadian federal by-elections live

Canada’s Liberals set to win a majority in the House of Commons today; and Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz is thumped in Hungary’s election.

Live Commentary

9:47am Wednesday With their three by-election wins, the Liberals now hold 174 of the 343 House of Commons seats, two above the 172 needed for a majority. That’s up five since the 2025 election, with all gains by defections. The Conservatives hold 140 (down four), the BQ 22 (steady), the NDP six (down one) and the Greens one (steady).

2:37pm All 153 booths have been counted in University-Rosedale. The Liberals won 64.4% (up 0.4% since the 2025 election), the NDP 18.9% (up 9.0%) and the Tories 12.4% (down 11.1%). Another dreadful swing result for the Tories, but here the NDP benefited.

2:20pm With all 211 booths counted in Terrebonne, the Liberals defeat the BQ by 48.4-46.8. Since the 2025 election, the Liberal vote was up 9.7%, the BQ vote up 8.1% and the Tories got just 3.3% (down 14.9%). In this seat, the Tories can blame squeezing of their vote between two viable contenders for this dismal performance.

2:06pm With 207 of 211 booths in for Terrebonne, the Liberals lead the BQ by 48.5-46.8. The Liberals are likely to win this one too, and have 174 Commons seats, two above the 172 needed for a majority.

1:47pm With 202 of 211 booths in for Terrebonne, the Liberals lead the BQ by 48.4-46.9.

1:30pm All 188 booths have been counted in Scarborough Southwest. The Liberal won 69.9% (up 8.4% since the 2025 general election), the Tories 18.4% (down 12.2%) and the NDP 6.0% (up 1.0%). A terrible result in swing terms for the Tories and a great result for the Liberals.

1:16pm With 185 of 211 booths in for Terrebonne, the Liberals lead the BQ by 48.2-47.1

12:34pm With 120 of 211 booths reported in Terrebonne, the Liberals have a 48.6-46.7 lead over the BQ. This probably won’t be called until the final booths are counted, which will be the big pre-poll booths.

12:08pm In Terrebonne, the Liberals now lead the BQ by 48.7-46.7 with 60 of 211 booths in. There’s a long list of candidates which probably slows the counting.

12:06pm The Liberals have been called the winner in University-Rosedale, where they lead the NDP by 63-20 with 13% for the Tories with 50 of 153 booths in. In Scarborough Southwest, the Liberals have a 67-19 lead over the Tories with 60 of 188 booths in. That should be called for the Liberals soon. Winning these two seats will take the Liberals to 173 seats, above the 172 needed for a majority.

11:53am With 35 of 211 polling booths reported in Terrebonne, the Quebec Bloc has a 47.9-47.8 lead over the Liberals.

9:48am Polls for the by-elections actually close at 10:30am AEST, not 11:30. I will be out until nearly 12pm.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 11:30am AEST today for three Canadian federal by-elections. The centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 House of Commons seats at the April 2025 Canadian feder9:45amal election, three short of a majority. The Conservatives won 144 seats, the separatist Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven and the Greens one.

Since that election, four Conservatives have defected to the Liberals, and the Liberals have also gained one from the NDP via a defection. Two Liberals in safe seats have resigned and the Terrebonne result was voided by the courts after the Liberals originally defeated the BQ by just one vote. By-elections for the two safe Liberal seats and Terrebonne occur today. If the Liberals win at least one of these three by-elections, they will have a Commons majority.

Canadian elections use first past the post. At the 2025 election in Terrebonne, the Liberals and BQ tied with 38.74% each with the Liberals getting one more vote. The Conservatives were third with 18.2%. In the two safe Liberal seats, in 2025 the Liberals won University-Rosedale by 64.0-23.5 over the Conservatives with 9.9% for the NDP. The Liberals won Scarborough Southwest by 61.5-30.6 over the Conservatives with 5.0% for the NDP.

Canadian federal polls currently give the Liberals a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, up from 2.5 points at the 2025 election. On this polling, the Liberals should easily hold their two safe seats and will probably win Terrebonne.

Far-right Fidesz thumped at Hungarian election

Of the 199 Hungarian seats, 106 are elected by FPTP and the remaining 93 by national proportional representation with a 5% threshold. With 98.2% counted at Sunday’s election, the conservative and pro-European Tisza won 136 seats (new), while Viktor Orbán’s governing far-right Fidesz won 56 seats (down 79). The remaining six seats went to another far-right party. This result ended Fidesz’s 16-year reign as the Hungarian governing party. Remaining votes will come from Hungary’s diaspora, which is very pro-Fidesz.

The 136 seats for Tisza is above the 133 needed for a two-thirds supermajority that is required to change the constitution. This will allow Tisza to undo changes made during Orbán’s 16 years in power. Tisza won the 106 FPTP seats by 92-14 from vote shares of 54.4% Tisza and 37.8% Fidesz. In the national list, Tisza won 52.4% of the votes and Fidesz 39.2% (down 15.0%).

In the lead-up to the election, there was a large difference in the polls between pro-Fidesz pollsters (which gave Fidesz 5-8 point leads) and other pollsters (which gave Tisza 9-17 point leads). The election results show that the pro-Fidesz polls were badly wrong.

At the 2022 election, the United for Hungary alliance of mainly left-wing parties had won 57 seats, but none of the parties included in that alliance won any seats at this election, as it became polarized between Tisza and Fidesz.

Dutch government formation

At the October 2025 Dutch election, the liberal D66 won 26 of the 150 seats, the populist right PVV 26, the conservative VVD 22, the Green Left 20 and the conservative Christian Democrats (CDA) 18. A minority government was formed on February 23 from D66, VVD and CDA. These three parties combined have 66 seats, ten short of a majority.

Hungarian election day

Viktor Orbán faces his sternest challenge after 16 years in office at today’s Hungarian election.

One of the year’s most consequential elections is being held overnight Australian time in Hungary, where Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party are fighting to remain in power after 16 years in office. His rival is Péter Magyar of the Tisza party, a former government insider who held senior roles in state-owned companies but broke with Fidesz two years ago amid a scandal over presidential pardons. Both contenders are identified with the political right, but Magyar’s promise of a reorientation toward a pro-NATO and European Union line stands in contrast to Orbán, whose regime has been distinguished in recent years by indulgence towards Vladimir Putin and his war on Ukraine, together with an wide-ranging illiberalism that has won the favour of the Donald Trump and a visit from J.D. Vance this week to endorse his campaign.

The manifestations of the latter include a skewing of electoral laws in Fidesz’s favour, including by allowing ethnic Hungarians in neighbouring countries to vote and letting them do so by post, of which at least 90% are cast for Fidesz, boosting them by a couple of percentage points in terms of national vote share. The Economist’s modelling suggests Tisza would need to outpoll Fidesz by 4.3% to have a better than even chance of securing a parliamentary majority, whereas Fidesz would need to trail by more than 2.0% to be a better than even chance of going into minority. The changes to the constitution, electoral rules, the judiciary and media regulation overseen by Orbán’s regime have required a two-thirds majority.

This post is going live just as polls close at 3am eastern Australian time, and the broad outline of the result seems likely to be clear by the time most of you read this. Polling has been radically variable depending on whether the pollster in question has been aligned with Fidesz: according to tracking conducted by The Economist, such polling has had Fidesz and its allies six or seven points ahead, whereas opposition-aligned or neutral polling has given Tisza a double-digit lead. What is already clear at the time of writing is that turnout is well up on 2022: 38% had voted as of 11am local time, with polls closing at 7pm, as compared with 26% at the same point in 2022.

US Georgia 14 federal special election runoff live

A Democrat and a Republican will contest today’s runoff in a seat Trump won by 37 points. Also covered: recent European elections and the upcoming Hungarian election and Canadian by-elections.

Live Commentary

1:53pm Thursday I’ve done an article for The Conversation on the drop in Trump’s US ratings and the November midterm elections.

3:56pm With nearly all votes counted in Wisconsin, Taylor wins by 60.1-39.8, a 21-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres election. The NYT says Taylor particularly outperformed his benchmarks in suburbs, small towns and rural places, exceeding his benchmarks there by 21-23 points compared with 12 points in big cities.

12:51pm In Wisconsin, with 78% in, the left-wing Taylor leads by 60.2-39.7. The NYT expects Taylor to win by 18 points. This is a gain for the left, so left-wing judges will increase their state Supreme Court majority to 5-2 from 4-3 previously.

12:43pm In Georgia 14, with almost all votes now in, Rep Fuller defeats Dem Harris by 55.9-44.1. While that’s a comfortable hold for the Reps, it’s a 25-point reduction in the Rep margin (from Trump’s 37-point win in 2024 to 12 today). Reps will have a 219-214 lead in the House with two vacancies.

11:51am A very easy win for the left-wing judge Taylor in Wisconsin, who now leads Lazar by 61-39 with 52% in. The NYT estimate is for Taylor’s current 22-point lead to narrow to 17 points when all votes are counted.

11:33am In Wisconsin, with 27% in, the left-wing judge Taylor is leading the right-winger Lazar by 57.4-42.5. The New York Times estimates Taylor will win by 16 points when everything is counted. Trump won Wisconsin by 0.9 points in 2024.

11:22am With two counties (Paulding and Cobb in the southeast) yet to finalise their results, Fuller leads by 57.5-42.5 with 86% in.

11:04am With 76% in, Fuller leads by 55.6-44.4. In the five counties with complete results, there’s a swing to the Dems between 22 and 30 points from the 2024 pres election. Polls in Wisconsin have now closed.

10:42am Fuller doing it easily now, winning by 55.6-44.4 with 67% in. Polk is the second county to fully count its votes, with Fuller winning by 39 points, a 22-point swing to Dems from the 2024 pres election.

10:02am With some results from all counties in Georgia 14 in, Rep Fuller leads by 53-47 with 42% in. I expect him to expand his lead on election day votes.

9:48am The election day votes have been counted in Chattooga county, boosting Fuller’s overall lead to 51.5-48.5. There’s a 25-point shift towards Dems in that county from the 2024 pres election result, but that’s not enough for Harris to pull off an upset.

9:40am With 28% overall reporting still without results from two counties, Fuller has a tiny 50.03-49.97 lead. That’s likely to widen considerably by the final results.

9:34am Harris takes a 52-48 lead on counting in Cobb county (Atlanta suburbs). But with more rural counties still to report and the right skew of election day votes, Fuller is the clear favourite.

9:22am With 10% in, Fuller leads by 55-45. The counties that have reported so far are mostly rural, but election day votes will probably help Fuller.

9:16am With results from two rural counties in, Fuller takes the lead by 62-38 with 3% in.

9:10am In very early results from Georgia 14, Dem Harris has taken a 62-38 lead over Rep Fuller. These results will be from early voting, which skews left in the US.

8:36am There will also be a Wisconsin state Supreme Court election today, with polls closing at 11am AEST.  Left-aligned judges hold a 4-3 majority, and a right-wing judge’s seat is up for election, so the left will retain its majority, but a left win would increase its majority to 5-2.  Chris Taylor is the left’s candidate, while Maria Lazar represents the right.  A mid-March Marquette poll gave Taylor a 30-22 lead with 47% undecided.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 9am AEST today for a federal special election runoff in Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former Georgia 14 seat after she resigned on January 5. At the March 10 jungle primary for this seat, Democrat Shawn Harris (with 37.3%) and Republican Clayton Fuller (with 34.9%) advanced to the runoff. Including other Republican and Democratic candidates, Republicans overall won by 59.7-39.8.

At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in Georgia 14 by 68.2-31.3, a 36.9-point margin. At the 33 state special elections held so far in 2026, Democrats have performed on average 10.6 points better than the Trump vs Harris margin in those same seats.

Republicans hold a 218-214 House of Representatives majority with two other vacancies. A special election in New Jersey’s 11th will occur on April 16 after Democrat Mikie Sherill was elected NJ governor in November 2025. The Republican member for California’s first died in early January, with the jungle primary to be held on June 2 and a runoff if needed on August 4.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -16.9, down 4.4 points since March 4 to a record low owing to the Iran war. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.4 points, with this margin little changed since January. Midterm elections occur this November.

Danish, Slovenian, German and Italian electoral events

Of the 179 Danish seats, 175 are elected in Denmark and two each in Greenland and Faroe Islands by proportional representation with a 2% threshold. At the March 24 election, the centre-left Social Democrats won 38 seats (down 12 since the 2022 election), and their vote share of 21.9% was their lowest since 1903. The two other more conservative former governing parties also lost seats, with the Green Left winning the second most seats with 20 (up five).

Overall, left-wing parties (Red Bloc) won 86 seats and right-wing parties (Blue Bloc) 78 seats, with the Moderates with 14 seats holding the balance of power. Other than a short period near the end of 2025, the Red Bloc had been ahead in the polls since the last election.

Of the 90 Slovenian seats, 88 are elected by PR in eight 11-member electorates with a national 4% threshold. The last two seats go to minorities. At the March 22 election, the governing socially liberal GS won 29 seats (down 12 since 2022), the right-wing SDS 28 (up one), the conservative NSI nine (up one), the centre-left SD six (down one), the centre-right Democrats six (new), the Left five (steady) and the COVID-skeptical Resni.ca five (up five). With 46 seats needed for a majority, the SDS is likely to be the next government.

German elections effectively use PR with a 5% threshold. At the March 22 Rhineland-Palatinate state election, the conservative CDU won 39 of the 105 seat (up eight since 2021), the centre-left SPD 32 (down seven), the populist right AfD 24 (up 15) and the Greens ten (steady). The independent FW and pro-business FDP lost their 12 combined seats by falling below the threshold. A CDU/SPD coalition is the only way to get a majority without the AfD.

On March 22-23, a referendum occurred in Italy on judicial reforms. This referendum was backed by Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government. The referendum was defeated by a 53.2-46.8 margin.

Upcoming Hungarian election and Canadian by-elections

I previously covered next Sunday’s Hungarian election. Polls continue to be contradictory, with those aligned with the populist right governing Fidesz giving Fidesz 5-8 point leads over the conservative and pro-European Tisza, while other polls give Tisza 9-23 point leads.

The centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 House of Commons seats at the 2025 Canadian federal election, three short of a majority. Since then, three Conservatives have defected to the Liberals, but two Liberals in safe seats have resigned and the Terrebonne result was voided by the courts after the Liberals originally defeated the Quebec Bloc by just one vote. By-elections for the two safe Liberal seats and Terrebonne occur next Monday. If the Liberals win all three, they will have a Commons majority.

US Georgia 14 federal special election jungle primary live

After Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation, her safe Republican seat will be contested today. Also covered: upcoming elections in Denmark and Hungary, and the Nepalese election result.

Live Commentary

1:08pm With 99% reporting, Dem Harris wins 37.3% and Rep Fuller 34.9%, with another Rep the next highest at 11.6%. Two other Dems combined for 2.4%, for a Dem total of 39.7%. That’s a more than eight-point swing to the Dems from the 2024 Trump and Harris vote shares, but Fuller should easily win the April 7 runoff.

11:51am While Dem Harris won 43% of the early in-person vote, he’s so far only winning 27% of the election day vote. With 75% overall reporting, Harris’ share of the overall vote has fallen to 38.0%, with two other Dems combining for 2.4%.

11:32am With 61% reporting, Dem Harris and Rep Fuller have been called as advancing to an April 7 runoff, with current vote shares of 39.9% Harris and 34.2% Fuller. There’s more votes outstanding in Dem favouring counties.

11:03am With all counties in Georgia 14 reporting some results and 49% counted overall, Dem Harris has 42.3% and Rep Fuller 33.1%. Election day votes will likely favour Reps, so the Dems won’t do as well as the current massive swing towards them suggests. This seat voted for Trump by 68.2-31.3 in 2024.

10:44am With 33% in, Dem Harris has taken the lead with 44.3%, followed by Rep Fuller at 33.6%. The other two Dems combined are only at 2.3%. Early votes will likely favour Dems relative to the final results.

10:24am With 3% reporting, Rep Fuller has 43.4% and Dem Harris 34.5%, with the next highest two Reps at 8.3% and 6.9% respectively. Fuller and Harris are likely to go to a runoff unless Fuller wins outright with over 50% today

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 10am AEDT today for a jungle primary federal special election in Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former Georgia 14 seat after she resigned on January 5. At a jungle primary, many Republicans and Democrats compete, and the top two, regardless of party, go to a runoff, unless one candidate wins over 50%. If needed, the runoff will be on April 7.

There are 16 Republican and three Democratic candidates. As well as who makes the top two, I will follow how well Republicans and Democrats do overall. At the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in Georgia 14 by 68.2-31.3, a 36.9-point margin. At the 25 state special elections held so far in 2026, Democrats have performed on average 10.9 points better than the Trump vs Harris margin in those same seats.

Republicans hold a 218-214 House of Representatives majority with two other vacancies. A special election in New Jersey’s 11th will occur on April 16 after Democrat Mikie Sherill was elected NJ governor in November 2025. The Republican member for California’s first died in early January, with the special to be held on August 4.

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -13.6, virtually unchanged from when the Iran war started. While the war had caused skyrocketing oil prices, they fell back Monday on speculation Trump would chicken out. In Silver’s aggregate of the generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 5.3 points, with this margin little changed in the last six weeks. Midterm elections occur this November.

In gerrymandering news, the Virginia Supreme Court overturned a lower court decision, thus clearing the way for an April 21 referendum. A “yes” vote at the referendum will implement a 10-1 Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s 11 federal House seats, a four-seat gain for Democrats. There have been two referendum polls so far, with “yes” leading by eight points in one, while “no” leads by eight in the other.

Upcoming Danish and Hungarian elections

Of the 179 Danish MPs, 175 are elected in Denmark and two each in Greenland and Faroe Islands by proportional representation with a 2% threshold. The March 24 election was called eight months early. Polls have the current government of centre-left A and two more conservative parties facing defeat, but the overall vote for left-wing parties (Red bloc) is usually ahead of that for right-wing parties (Blue bloc).

Of the 199 Hungarian MPs, 106 will be elected by first past the post and the remaining 93 by national proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Since the 2022 election, the conservative and pro-European Tisza has become the main challenger to Viktor Orbán’s governing far-right Fidesz. Owing to pro-Fidesz gerrymandering, Tisza is expected to need a 3-5 point lead in the popular vote to win a majority of seats.

Polls for the April 12 election are contradictory. Pollsters allied with Fidesz give Fidesz leads, but independent or opposition-allied pollsters give Tisza large leads. At the 2022 election, polls were not contradictory, but they all understated Fidesz’s margin over the then opposition United for Hungary alliance by at least six points.

Nepalese and German state elections

An election occurred in Nepal last Thursday after the previous government collapsed in September 2025 following student-led protests about its authoritarian tendencies and nepotism. Of the 275 seats, 165 were elected by FPTP and 110 by national PR with a 3% threshold. The reformist Rastriya Swatantra Party won 125 of the 165 FPTP seats. With proportional seats now allocated, they won 47.9% of the national vote and 182 of the 275 total seats.

German elections effectively use PR with a 5% threshold. At Sunday’s state election in Baden-Württemberg, the Greens won 56 of the 157 seats (down two since 2021), the conservative CDU 56 (up 14), the far-right AfD 35 (up 18) and the centre-left SPD ten (down nine). The Left party and the pro-business FDP missed the 5% threshold, with each winning 4.4%, as the FDP lost its 18 seats. The only coalition capable of reaching the 79 seats needed for a majority that doesn’t include the AfD is a Greens/CDU coalition.

UK Gorton and Denton by-election live

Polls point to a close by-election result in a normally safe seat for UK Labour. Also covered: Welsh and Scottish elections on May 7 and recent elections in Thailand and Bangladesh.

Live Commentary

4:09pm Regarding Reform’s performance, this seat was a very left-wing seat. If Reform gains 15% nationally at the next election, they are likely to win a large number of seats. Even if you take away the 6% drop for the Conservatives, it’s still an overall swing to the right of 9%. The Workers Party didn’t stand at the by-election after getting 10.3% at the 2024 election in this seat, so left-wing parties were overall about 8% below their 2024 result.

3:39pm The Greens have GAINED Gorton and Denton from Labour, beating Reform by 12 points with Labour a further 3.3 points behind in third.

2:44pm The podium for the results announcement has been set up.

1:56pm The BBC reports a Greens source says they are very confident of a win.

1:17pm As a general comment on UK elections, it would be FAR better to have vote counting from booths reported publicly, which would usually give us a result in the first two hours after polls close. Instead all we have are party sources until the result is officially declared.

12:50pm A Reform source is claiming that Labour will come third.

12:38pm The BBC reports Labour sources say it’s been a good night for the Greens, turning out support in a way they wouldn’t be able to replicate at a general election according to these sources. Turnout for the by-election is 47.6%, which is actually UP 0.8% on the turnout in this seat at the 2024 general election.

11:30am The BBC says a result is expected between 3am and 4am UK time (2pm to 3pm AEDT).

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

Polls close at 9am AEDT today for the parliamentary by-election for the UK Labour-held seat of Gorton and Denton. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.8%, followed by the far-right Reform with 14.1%, the Greens with 13.2%, the Workers Party with 10.3% and the Conservatives with 7.9%. I previously related that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was blocked from running as Labour’s candidate for this by-election.

There have been two small-sample polls for the by-election. In the Omnisis poll, the Greens led Reform by 33-29 with 26% for Labour. In Opinium, the Greens and Labour were tied at 28% each with 27% for Reform. If Reform wins such a left-wing seat, it will highlight the UK’s bad first past the post system.

The Election Maps UK aggregate of national polls has Reform leading with 28.2%, followed by Labour at 19.8%, the Conservatives 18.8%, the Greens 14.1% and the Liberal Democrats 12.5%. There has been some movement to the Greens and against Reform in the last two weeks. But with FPTP, Reform still wins a clear majority with 348 of the 660 House of Commons seats.

Upcoming Welsh and Scottish elections

Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections and English local government elections will occur on May 7. Labour has been the dominant party at Welsh elections since the first devolved election in 1999, winning half or just under half the seats. At this election, there will be 96 members elected in 16 six-member electorates by proportional representation. This reform scraps the FPTP seats.

The Election Maps UK aggregate gives the left-wing Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru 28.2%, followed by Reform at 27.9%, Labour 17.7%, the Conservatives 11.6%, the Greens 7.4% and the Lib Dems 5.7%. Labour has been rising recently with a dip for Plaid and the Greens. Seat projections give Plaid 33 seats, Reform 32, Labour 19, the Conservatives nine, the Greens two and the Lib Dems one. If this occurs, Plaid and Labour combined would be able to govern.

Of the 129 Scottish seats, 73 are elected by FPTP and 56 are list seats, with the list seats used to maintain overall proportionality, so that parties that win a large number of FPTP seats don’t win many list seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has dominated since 2011.

In the Election Maps UK aggregate, the SNP has 34.5% of the vote in the FPTP seats, followed by 19.5% for Reform, 16.2% Labour, 10.3% Conservatives, 9.1% Lib Dems and 7.6% Greens. Seat projections give the SNP 58, Reform 23, Labour 17, the Conservatives 12, the Greens ten and the Lib Dems nine. If this occurs, the SNP will hold government with the Greens’ support.

Thai and Bangladeshi elections

Of the 500 Thai lower house seats, 400 are elected by FPTP and 100 by national PR. At the February 8 election, the conservative populist Bhumjaithai won 193 seats (up 122 since the 2023 election), the left-wing People’s 118 (down 33), the populist Pheu Thai 74 (down 67), the centre-right Kia Tham 58 (new) and the conservative Democrats 22 (down three).

This is the first time a conservative party has won the most seats in a Thai election in the 21st century. Bhumjaithai won 174 of the 400 FPTP seats and Kia Tham 56, while People’s won 87 and Pheu Thai 58. Popular votes in the FPTP seats were 29.9% Bhumjaithai, 23.6% People’s, 17.3% Pheu Thai and 11.5% Kia Tham.

Of the 350 Bangladeshi seats, 300 are elected by FPTP with the remaining 50 reserved for women who are appointed proportionally to the elected members. The February 12 election was the first since the July 2024 uprising that forced the authoritarian Awami League from power. The Awami League, which was the centre-left major party before it became authoritarian, was banned at this election.

The somewhat conservative Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) won 209 of the 299 FPTP seats (one seat’s election was postponed owing to a candidate’s death). The Islamist Jamaat won 68 seats. Vote shares had the BNP defeating Jamaat by 50.0-31.8.

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